In brief: Periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms will be with Houston today and tomorrow as a disturbance moves in from the Gulf. Then, we will get another round of heat heading into next week, peaking on Wednesday or Thursday.
Today
The tropical disturbance with 10 percent development odds that we’ve been discussing all week is on final approach to the Texas coast. The NHC pegs it just south of Vermilion Bay in Louisiana. On radar, we’ve clearly got a few showers across the area. There is a more robust area of rain closer to the disturbance itself that’s moving westward over the Gulf.
As the day goes on, look for that area of rain to move toward Galveston and/or Freeport. Inland areas will see quick moving downpours at times. Once the disturbance comes ashore tonight, there could be periodic downpours and even some thunder. Some areas will see little to no rainfall. Other places could pick up a quick inch or so in heavier downpours. I do think coastal areas may see a steadier rain later today, and thus they could see up to 2 inches or so of rain before all is said and done.
High temperatures this afternoon will struggle and may not even reach 90 degrees in many spots. Look for upper-80s to low-90s (if the sun gets out) and a bit more humidity than we’ve had this week.
Saturday and Sunday
This tropical disturbance is not slowing down for anyone. By tomorrow afternoon, the fingerprint of the disturbance should be past I-35 and into West Texas. We will still see scattered thunderstorms across the area, with an increase in coverage as temperatures warm up tomorrow.
On Sunday, the chance of rain drops even a bit more, but again not to zero. While Saturday will probably top off in the low-90s, Sunday could be in the low to mid-90s.
Next week
So what’s next? First, we’re going to get a surge in heat once more. Houston should peak in the mid-90s on Monday with a chance of a storm, mid to upper-90s on Tuesday, and upper-90s to near 100 degrees on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.
After Thursday, it almost looks like yet another Gulf disturbance may enter the picture, though this one could be even a bit farther north (possibly over land) than the current one. No real development risk by any means, but we’ll see if this can’t help enhance shower and thunderstorm chances and lower our temperatures to close out next week.
