In brief: Houston will see calm weather this week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and some marginally cooler nights. If you’re looking ahead to the weekend, you can be pretty sure we’re going to see a warm and fairly humid pattern, with some slight rain chances. It definitely won’t feel like we’re heading toward Thanksgiving.
A thank you to Veterans everywhere
Today is Veterans Day, a federal holiday to honor everyone who has served in the US Armed Forces. This includes my dad and father-in-law—both of whom served in Vietnam and bore scars as a result—and several uncles. We take freedom for granted as Americans, but as one looks around the world, it is clear that there is no human right to our freedoms of expression, assembly, press, and more. We must continue to guard them, and those who serve in the armed forces are on the front line. So, thank you. If you’re participating in a Veterans Day ceremony today there are no weather concerns, even today’s highs in the lower 80s should feel fine with slightly lower humidity.
Monday
We’re seeing a drier, northerly flow this morning and it has helped to push low temperatures down into the low- to mid-60s for much of the region. We’ll see mostly sunny skies for much of today, and this will boost high temperatures into the lower 80s. As noted above, however, with a modicum of drier air it won’t feel super humid outside. Winds will be light, from the north or northeast. Lows tonight will drop to about 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.
Tuesday
Expect another sunny day, with highs of around 80 degrees. As the onshore flow resumes later in the day we’ll see a slightly warmer night, with lows in the mid-60s.
Wednesday
This day will be a little more humid, with at least partly cloudy skies, and high temperatures likely slotting in the mid-80s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re likely only on the order of 10 percent or so. Lows on Wednesday night will probably drop into the the mid-60s.
Thursday and Friday
Our weather for the back-end of the work week will be determined by the strength of a front that arrives on Wednesday night. Some of our guidance is pretty bullish on cooler air behind the front, but others not so much. Given the overall pattern, I’m inclined to favor the warmer outcome as the most likely—even if it is the less desirable one for most of us. In any case, these should be partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 70s. Lows will depend on the amount of cooler air behind the front, but I’m hopeful that most of the region will get into the upper 50s at least on Thursday and Friday nights. We’ll see.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
Humidity washes back onshore with a southerly flow this weekend. That means we’re likely to see highs in the low-80s, with warm nights and partly sunny skies. I’m inclined to believe this is probably the last really warm and muggy weekend we’ll see this year—that is to say, with highs pushing toward the mid-80s—but it’s been such a hot year I’m making no guarantees. Each weekend day will probably have a low-end rain chance, on the order of 20 percent. This warmer pattern persists until around Wednesday or so, when we may finally see a bonafide fall front. However, it’s still about nine days out, so …
Yeah at this point we will smash the warmest November on record unless we somehow get a freeze or something. This warm night streak already surpassed 2017’s.
We may finally see a bonafide fall front. Hmm I wonder how many times I’ve heard that before this fall? 🤔
This will very likely be our warmest November on record. We are already averaging 8 degrees warmer than our previous warmest November of 1965. And temperatures will remain well above normal for the next 10 days. It would take the jet stream pattern doing a complete 180 and a few Arctic blasts moving through in late November to prevent us from breaking the record. And with the pattern we’ve been in this fall, I definitely don’t see that happening.
Nothing like that likely even after 10 days, and even if it miraculously goes all out February 2021 later in the month, it would most certaintly already be far too late.
Hrmmmmm I think I’ll believe any “front” possibilities when I wake up and it’s in the 50s. 🙁
It’s supposed to get into the 50s tonight at my house in west Houston. The average temperature is so cool by now that this unusually warm weather isn’t actually uncomfortable.
I have lived in Houston long enough to know that this warm muggy Gulf Coast weather can turn on a dime in November. One morning soon we will wake up to a strong NW wind howling and temperatures twenty, thirty or more degrees colder than they are now and it will feel like winter.
We can get fronts like that in October sometimes. Most Novembers we can get atleast one cold front like that. Hopefully that will happen near the end of this month.
at this point i am preparing for an 80 degree christmas.
Shoot, probably 85 or higher.
At least it’s not just us, even Boston was in 80s last week, which is wild. Of course the fronts are now reaching these places this week and we’re still…in Houston:(
Even though we are in a record warm fall as of late, with record highs just shy of 90 this November, it still is fall after all and we have made progress since summer. Instead of highs in upper 90s or 100+, we are generally in the mid 80s for highs most days. This is in large part due to the natural seasonal changes by the Earth’s tilt. The suns rays are not hitting us as directly because the northern hemisphere has been gradually facing away from the sun more and more over the past couple of months. This is why it don’t feel as brutal to step out in the sun like it does in July and August. The days are shorter as well which also prevents us from heating up as much. We have also had mild Pacific airmasses briefly cool as off as well. So, even though we are not getting cold fronts, nature is still cooling us off just by the tilt of the Earth and it’s current angle towards the sun.
However in order to get cold this far south, we obviously need cold fronts to send cold Canadian air down into Texas. That is something that we have been lacking this fall, but it will happen eventually. We never go an entire winter without getting cold atleast once.
Even though it has been anomalously warm this fall, it has still been significantly better than summer. You have to try and dig for every positive you can find. 👍
This is true so thankful it’s not in the 90’s or 100’s anymore and that this summer wasn’t as bad as last. BUT it’s still depressing how muggy and warm it is. I want it to feel like the holidays but we’ve had plenty of warm of holidays I should be used to it by now.
It’s like this horrendously warm fall is making up for the mild summer (except August), last fall was at least decently nice with powerful cold fronts coming in after a sweltering September, this fall feels more like 2016 if anything, with even sparser cold fronts and hotter days.
Yeah, I was hoping that I wouldn’t have to experience another 2016 type fall, but then this one is even worse. The way our climate is getting, we will probably experience an even hotter fall than this one before the decade is over.
Coincidentally both 2024 and 2016 are La Nina developing years that were (2024 will be) the warmest globally surprassing the previous one in an El Nino, and both had a mild June and July with a hot August leading up to a hot fall.
2016 didn’t have a mild July.
Non-weather-related request (please!): Last week, Matt mentioned your annual fundraiser to be launched soon. I guess it’s too late for a merchandise request – your Houston’s Four Seasons tee or sweatshirt? I always got a lot of smiling compliments and made sure they saw your website printed on the back. Due to a careless Lowe’s stocker, my tee encountered a 30-Second House Cleaner mishap (it really works, although 5 seconds on a cotton tee).
Thank you, Eric, Matt, and Dwight! First email I read to start the day. Go-to weather mixed with a bit of humor! (My favoite weather prediction – Dog Excitability Scale😊)
I’m just hoping I am not sweating it out in the kitchen on Thanksgiving day…..the last few years we’ve been blessed with weather that has allowed me to open the windows while I am cooking. Praying for another miracle – which I feel it would most certainly would be this year!
I’m hoping that since the fall has been so warm that this winter will be steadily cool/cold. Sometimes a hot fall can lead to a cold winter. Many times when we get winter in October and November, December ends up being warm and muggy.
I actually like this prolonged warmer weather. My pool is still warm enough to swim in and I can walk the dogs in flip-flops!
Move
I hope Dwight removes this violent comment/name. We don’t need this here.
You move! Make South Texas Have A Fall Again!
🤣 I endorse this agenda!
Oh fuck off. I was born here and this weather sucks. No ones coming for your ‘Native Texan’ card. You can enjoy beans in your chili, it’s ok. No one’s going to hurt you.
Are you literally OK? Either you are trying to make people like me, who believe in loving one’s hometown and being loyal to and rooted in it, look like cruel madmen, or you just enjoy making people gape at your foul trolling.
Anyway, transplants who have already become rooted here are Texans now, so shut up. Besides, I think much of the complaining is not about being in Houston, but about climate change. Which we are perfectly right to complain about, if only to point out that it is serious, and affecting our lives right now.
I don’t even care no more yall. Bring it on! Let it be 120 for the whole winter with 110 percent humidity!!! I’m tired of hoping for a decent cold front! Almost mid November and I have to even wear a long sleeve t shirt. I’m so sick of every year being hotter and hotter.
Do you have an idea when we will see cooler temperatures