In brief: As a boundary pushes in from East Texas, the potential for storms is a little bit higher today than expected. However, while the line of storms currently on the radar is impressive, it’s not clear whether this system will hold together all the way into Houston.
In this morning’s post I mentioned there was “a bit of intrigue” regarding storm chances on Monday afternoon as a boundary pressed into the area from the east. As of 4 pm CT this boundary is clearly visible on radar, having moved from Louisiana into East Texas, and now slowly creeping toward the Houston metro area.
To be frank, our high-resolution modeling guidance has completely missed the boat on this storm development today, and I don’t have a great answer as to what happens later this afternoon and evening. My best guess is that this boundary will continue to slide west, but as the storms approach and move into the Houston area they will weaken. But given the ample daytime heating over the next couple of hours, it is also possible the storms hold together and some sort of line pushes through between now and 9 pm CT.
With this post I simply wanted to call attention to the possibility that showers and thunderstorms may be a little bit more widespread this evening than previously expected. (We have no flooding concerns, regardless). Or, maybe the storms will fizzle out as they move into a slightly less favorable environment. In any case, expect the unexpected this evening.
Are we still looking good in terms of Beryl?
Well, since they came back in the afternoon to mention a possibility of rain, I’d expect a mention of a possibility of Beryl, if that were the case.
Thank you ever so much for the consistency in these updates, Matt and Eric. I have been a longtime devotee of SCW and the Eyewall and I appreciate your unbridled dedication to keeping us informed and levelheaded about our boundless meteorological wonderments.
That should be the new catch phrase for Houston “expect the unexpected “.Thankfully y’all are on top of things!
It has always been “expect the unexpected” for Houston. At least it has been for the last 65 years that I’ve been in the area.
I expect it will rain later today because I had the automatic sprinklers on this morning. It always rains after I irrigate – you can thank me for that.
Thank you, Matt, for your continued candor and thoughtfulness in providing vital info to the our community. May you and yours be blessed.
This was from Eric, not Matt.
As of 6pm, looks like the storms fizzle out before they get to Houston.
Maybe about a trace of rain came down on the Gulf Freeway east of Hobby Airport. It looks like nearly an inch of rain (0.92 inches) came down in the City of South Houston.
Thanks for looking out! I / we all appreciate !
Is it the Saharan dust making the sky so orange?
Sorry guys. It’s obvious this 4pm post is another attempt to compensate for that Derecho debacle. You guys are on a pretty consistent bad prediction roll.