Tropical system forming in southern Gulf: Not a threat to Houston, but may bring elevated rain chances Sunday

In brief: A tropical disturbance has developed in the southern Gulf, and it is expected to move into Mexico early next week. Houston can expect to see elevated rain chances on Sunday due to moisture from this system.

I hope everyone is having a great start to the weekend. It is sunny for most of us, and should remain so for much of today as high temperatures climb to around 90 degrees. For late June, this is mild weather. However, if we look a little bit further afield this morning we can see an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, in the southern end of the Gulf.

The system should slowly move to the west, toward the coast of Mexico, and push inland by Monday. There is a healthy chance (50 percent, says the National Hurricane Center) that this could become a tropical depression or storm during the next 48 hours, before moving inland. The waters there are plenty warm to support development.

We are interrupting your Saturday to emphasize that this system is of no threat to Houston in terms of high seas or winds. That goes pretty much for the entire state of Texas. However, moisture associated with the tropical low pressure system should help to increase rain chances on Sunday, and possibly into Monday.

This, as well, is not of too much concern. Overall I would expect accumulations for areas south of I-10 to average 0.5 inch or less on Sunday, with lower totals further inland. However, at this time of year, especially with tropical rainfall, we can see rain totals pile up quickly. So it would not surprise me to see a few isolated areas pick up a couple of inches of rain on Sunday, which would briefly cause some ponding on streets and in parking lots. Again, for the vast majority of the region these should just be your garden variety showers and thunderstorms.

Lesser rain chances linger into Monday, and then most of next week looks hotter, with highs likely reaching at least the mid-90s.