In brief: A tropical system is bringing heavy rains and lashing winds to the Texas coast this morning, but most of this activity is south of Houston. We’ll see the potential for widespread showers on Wednesday before lesser rain chances through the weekend. Houston’s skies will turn partly sunny starting Thursday, with lots of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One
A tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico is close to becoming a tropical depression, but it is running of time as it turns toward the east coast of Mexico. It should move inland by Thursday. Regardless of whether it develops further, the effects for Texas are baked in: elevated winds and seas, with the potential for heavy rainfall along much of the coast—but critically not the Houston region.
The light-to-moderate rainfall the city is experiencing this morning is basically the main thrust of the tropical moisture. Yes, this is it. In preceding days, we have been careful to balance expectations for this storm by suggesting there was a possibility that the heavy rainfall could go south of Houston, which it ultimately did. But there is no question our modeling whiffed badly on the risk of flooding in the Houston metro area. (Speaking of modeling, I’ll have a short analysis of the performance by AI models tomorrow on this tropical system).
The bottom line is that there is no longer any serious risk of flooding in the greater Houston metro area. To the south of the city, including areas such as southern Brazoria County, Bay City, and down into Matagorda Bay, there are notably higher rainfall totals and some risk of additional flooding today. These southern areas are also at risk of higher tides and coastal flooding, as well as wind gusts up to 40 mph.
Wednesday
The Houston region should see continued scattered light to moderate showers through the morning hours of the Juneteenth holiday. It’s possible that an additional, broken “band” of showers could develop over Houston this afternoon or evening. However, I don’t anticipate any of this rain leading to serious flooding issues. For the most part, these should be nuisance showers.
Winds associated with the tropical system in the southern Gulf should peak this afternoon over the Houston metro area, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible inland, and up to 40 mph along the coast, including Galveston Island. With elevated tides, some coastal flooding of low-lying areas is likely today, and again Thursday morning. Skies should be mostly cloudy today, limiting high temperatures to the 80s.
Thursday
As the tropical system moves into Mexico, it will cease to be a threat in terms of rainfall. As a result we are likely to see only scattered showers on Thursday with lesser accumulations. Skies will be partly sunny with highs of around 90 degrees.
Friday
Skies will be mostly sunny on Friday, with highs near 90 degrees. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, but it likely is only about 30 percent.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend should bring sunny weather with highs in the low 90s. Several readers have asked about a second tropical system, expected to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend (see image at the top of this post). At this time I don’t expect it to have a significant impact on Houston’s weather, although it could drive some scattered showers and thunderstorms for coastal areas—that is, along and south of Interstate 10—this weekend. We’ll keep an eye on it, but for now it’s not something to be too concerned about.
Next week
Most of next week looks partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. We may also see some afternoon, seabreeze-driven showers. All in all, the pattern looks fairly typical for late June as we march toward the heart of summer.
All you weather guys suck, you suck the least of all the mainstream ones but I don’t really have much faith in any of your forecasts
Then why do you use SCW?
Predicting the future is not easy. Especially atmospheric sciences where there are literally thousands of ever changing factors that come into play. This nothing burger of a storm was forecast at least 10 days in advance which is amazing to me considering where we were just a few decades ago.
No, but seeing what’s going on is easy. Going back to Sunday it was clear dry air was streaming into the western parts of the moisture plume. Several folks commented on this but the forecasters either didn’t see this (unlikely) or ignored what was happening in favor of the doom forecast (at least for our forecast area).
Even the TV folks are having to create news about this.
“Seeing” what is going on in real time is a far cry from making forecasts hours in advance…
SCW is not an up to the minute website. It’s a once, sometimes twice a day nuts and bolts of what’s going on with the Houston area weather.
You don’t know what the eff you’re talking about. I suggest you go take a look at current satellite and make note of all of the convection taking place on the southern aspect of this system and how it’s tightening up. There was no dry air intrusion and its, albeit slow, organization since then supports that.
Go back and look at archived data for the past few days. Specifically 950mb and higher in altitude. Tell us what you see.
As Keith said, Tell us what you see. We’re waiting. The forecasting of late has been absolutely atrocious. The rain last month now this. Anyone that knows how to use a mouse could see the huge slug of dry air choking this depression off and it wasn’t mentioned here OR on the Eyewall at all. Unacceptable.
It’s science bro, it’s never 100% right 🙄
so true but some folk will never ever get that.
You must be really fun at parties….
We look forward to your forecast after you subscribe to any of the many meteorological data sites available. I’m sure you’ll never miss.
As the Great Neal Frank said, “The weatherman is right often enough you keep watching and wrong enough you keep cussing.”
😁
You need to go look at the dimming albedo effect and the amount of energy we’re dumping into the oceans because of it. We put around a decade worth of energy into the oceans in the last year and this has tossed our planet into an energy imbalance. The planet will eventually rebalance itself, we’re all along for the ride with it, and when it does the world will continue to be in worse shape than it was prior to the event.
Hahaha, u r correct. It might shake us off like a flea, or a virus.
And you can predict better? What’s your meteorological background? Have you ever taken any statistics classes? Whom will you rely on for hurricane forecasts? Smh.
Way to add a degree of intelligence to the discussion 🙄!
You seem to have forgotten that these are forecasters, not God. I would rather we have an idea something is coming than to have no preparation at all. Preparing for a tropical system hurts no one, a lack of preparation can be deadly.
Let’s also understand that this is a service that you do not have to pay to utilize.
Another “alpha” making apparent his ignorance without explicitly doing so. Maybe Herr Beast should go develop his own models and forecast algorithms and wow us all with his prognosticating abilities. I look forward to his results.
Says the Delta
I mean then just take it for what it’s worth. Are you paying for any of this? I greatly appreciate the EXTRA effort these guys put in to try to keep us safe. Bottom line is be prepared and accept that they know just a little bit more than you do, Peace
Your expectations are way too unrealistic, Karen. You need to come down to earth.
Eric, it seems like the models have been whiffing badly in either direction this year (e.g. downplaying forecasts that end up severe and overplaying forecasts that end up not being severe). Not just here in Houston, either. Curious to hear your thoughts as to why this is happening.
this has been happening a LOT for rain forecasts and low temperature forecasts the past six years, it has been awful. My problem is that all meteorologists follow these models like religion and make the same forecasts, very few venture from them and make their own forecasts. These guys were good at that but they have fallen to also follow the models too closely recently. I can bet you with the experience they have, they could make better predictions than the computers do but of course the risk is that nature does whatever it wants and doesnt follow trends or rules so the minute they are wrong they lose credibility. Predicting is hard and as viewers all we can do is prepare just in case. But I learned not to change my plans when reading predictions, no matter how much fuzz there is. Go on with your life. Have a backup plan in case it does go as bad as they say but mainly just keep your plans.
Finally.! Someone with a non-accusatory query.. I’m right there with you and hopefully Eric will give us his insight. My thought is that, because we are currently in the ENSO-neutral phase. But, I’m not a meteorologist. Just a Chef who loves weather.
Easiest drive into work in a while, never stopped even once on the freeways. I guess the TV stations did a good job of scaring people into staying home today. We dodged another bullet today,
Speaking of the the TV stations, their mobile weather apocalypse units had to drive down to Matagorda to even show people what flooding looks like, and it was right along the coast at that. Thanks to them, we now know what a road covered by a few inches of salt water looks like. Ahhh-oooh.
Dodged another bullet? The highly sophisticated “models” – and highly trained weather forecasters – missed yet again. And the “storm” click bait worked yet again.
I wonder what the meteorologists did back before computer models? Maybe we lean too heavily on them. They are just one tool to use making a forecast.
Way back before all these models the good weather forecasters actually went outside to look around.
And do what? Sniff the air, grab some dust and toss it up? This isn’t “Twister”. Going outside does nothing outside of observing current conditions.
Tim looking at the sky is actually a good idea. I can tell when cumulous clouds are dissipating or losing strength when I look at them, that doesnt show on the radar until 10 minutes after. So if I need to catch the bus or go outside a good look at the sky def helps. A professional probably can see way more things than I do. So the poster has a point.
Sure, if you’re essentially interested in a Nowcast. But let’s not pretend that significant forecast trends are going to be made outside of an hour or two by “going outside”. As a runner and an undergrad in meteorology, trust me, I get that. But nothing meaningful beyond that is to be found. Otherwise, lets just go back to wall mounted barometers and sling psychrometers – very useful in the near term but woefully inadequate beyond.
Yeah, KA. Don’t go outside and look at the actual sky to see what the weather is doing. That’s a terrible idea.
Listen to Tim L. He’s a metero undergrad. He’s got them wannabe creds.
snorting
Going outside to see what the weather is doing is not making a forecast. Sure, go out, get some rain in your face, then tell everyone it’s raining. Hell, why not just buy the Farmer’s Almanac and do away with everything else, since so many simpletons buy in.
Mark, you reminded me of memories as a child in the early 60’s watching Channel 11’s Sid Lasher with his weather storyboards (basically a poster board with the Texas coast on it on an easel and he used a pointer to discuss…and mind you, most of the time he was talking about the weather we’d just had…he did Hurricane Carla this way). THANK GOD that a young upstart Channel 11 reporter covering Carla at Galveston’s brand new Weather Service Bureau talked them into laying a transparency of the radar onto a map of the coastline so that he could show viewers. If Dan Rather had done nothing else in his life, that was plenty! Yes, we have come a long way.
“ Easiest drive into work in a while, never stopped even once on the freeways”
It’s a Federal holiday
Huh? It’s not Monday.
It’s Juneteenth. It’s celebrated on 6/19, regardless of the day of the week.
Oh. It was on a Monday last year, which I guess was when the 19th was. I was thinking it would be this coming Monday.
No Juneteenth but basically only federal employees. Most people still have to go in, including myself:( I know a few people who got to work from home but it was cause of the weather.
So you don’t think City of Houston and Harris County having a holiday today would reduce traffic?
lol
The low traffic on the roads couldn’t possibly be a result of it being a federal holiday today…
Traffic has been lighter all week. This is a popular time for summer vacations and today is a government holiday for many.
A lot of us were off today for Juneteenth as well. Probably had more to do with the freeways being open.
Let us not be harsh. Yes, it is 2024. Yes, we have computer models, satellites, and data gathering of which our ancestors could never dream. And yet we can clearly see as we sit on the edges of this tropical weather system that forecasting our marvelous chaotic weather and climate eludes our best minds. Human hubris in the 21st century is brought down. I am thankful for Matt and Eric and their honest and intelligent efforts.
Very true.
yeah but that doesnt mean we can just sit back and continue to mess up so much, everything always has room for improvement and these models need to be improved. From low temperatures to rain forecasts they just meess up too much. I think they do a good job of predicting high temperatures and droughts but not the other way around.
me too, Ike introduced me too Eric/Matt, love their transparency, if the mess up they admit it, if there is nothing to be concerned about they tell us.
Space City Weather is my go to site for Houston and southern Texas forecasts. Thanks for the great work you guys do.
I quit watching the local weather news on TV years ago and switch to these guys got tired of the hype on the TV weather.
First, continued thanks to Eric, Matt, and the SCW team for their dedication to keeping us informed.
Yes, the forecasts change but this is a result of Mother Nature, not because Eric and Matt enjoy hearing the whining cats go on about “missed forecasts”. So, I choose to roll with the punches and press on.
My Wednesday to-do list is still going whether it is raining (or not), accurate forecast (or not).
the “european models” appeared to be spot on in terms of the total rainfall for our area, but the weather man I saw glossed over that model and totally went to the worst case scenario models predicting up to 8 inches of rain for our area.
Is there such thing as “meteorological malpractice”?
True, the Euro (non AI) was the most consistent and accurate by far, though even it predicted more rain than we have gotten so far.
I am near I-10 and have received only about 1/8th of an inch so far this entire week.
There should be malpractice and that goes for the regular news too we want the truth.
lol
Our weathermen – er, people – have literally become “medicine men” of the Wild West days. Hype anything like crazy then revise later with no mentions of their “wiffs”. I do wonder if it’s all on them though as I’m sure execs are going HYPE, HYPE, HYPE!
No, we have the Joe Rogan’s of the world for that kind of stuff.
I’d rather have the warning and not need it than need it and not have it.
At least we’re not under the sizzling heat wave that’s over much of the country right now.
To everyone howling about the misses being about “science”, it’s actually not. It’s data interpretation by humans. Actually, it’s misinterpretation by humans. Whether it’s intentional or not, to garner clicks, is another story.
Either way, the misses both ways – not forecasting a violent derecho and forecasting 8-12” of rain that turns into 1/2” — are astonishing. Wait until AI fully takes hold…the misses will get even worse.
It is going to work out perfect for us. A little rain and a few cloudy and cooler days right before the summer solstice and the worst, hottest part of summer sets in. No flooding, no downed trees, no power outages. Some people just want to whine about a bust in the forecast instead of counting their blessings!
We have about 98 days (+ or – 14 or so) until Fall Day. Every wet, cloudy day with highs under 95 is to be celebrated here in Houston, Texas.
Sorry, this is not perfect. We need a good 5 inches or so of rain a month to keep things green and I have gotten less than 2 inches of rain this month.
i agree rain is a great thing in the summer, just not too much!
A best-case outcome for us. Others, not so much. When this system collides with the Sierra Madre Oriental it could be very bad. Thanks for your guidance SCW.
I’m not casting any specific blame here, but this is a system wide failure. This is how the average person who knows nothing about weather learns to distrust and disregard warnings. Improvements must be made if they possibly can. “better safe than sorry” doesn’t work once people start to disregard what you have to say.
Meteorology is leaps and bounds better now than it was even twenty years ago. Anyone who expects perfection or anything even close to perfection should just stop looking at weather forecasts.
I agree. It is unreasonable to expect perfection. There was plenty of room for more accuracy in this forecast, while still falling far short of perfection. I was merely pointing out that changing the forecast from 6 to 10 inches of rain to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain does not bolster confidence in meteorologists’ ability to forecast the weather and therefore encourages people to disregard future warnings.
Part of it is the reactionary way people have become with mobile PCs in their hands, social media, and access to all forms of information (factual and not). Everyone is an “expert” and everyone wants everything right 100% of the time at a moment’s notice.
Because Tim’s not reactionary at all…
Tim is so smart!
Timmy!
Thank you all for everything you do. The time, the effort…the thought you put into helping us be prepared while balancing the uncertainty of forecasting. I am grateful we have you!!!
So I’m curious which model actually panned out. Was it the regular models or the AI models? I remember it being mentioned that there were some differences between them a few days ago.
I hope you guys ignore the comments complaining that weather predictions aren’t correct…that’s like, super common, and you updated your predictions as new data came in, and other sites (like abc13) still have stuff like “Heavy tropical rains move in…” on their main page, despite the fact that people all over the city are experiencing light rain, if that.
People are so ungrateful, and mysteriously suddenly forgot how meteorology works. Or there’s just a few whining, angry people, and they’re the ones who complain online, while most people are happy.
Anyway, Houston has years of weather predictions saying it will be worse than it actually is; those times are a blessing. I’d rather be overprepared just in case and then have less severe weather than the opposite.
It’s still important to stay vigilant for the times where the bad weather does actually hit.
I for one am really happy with how this turned out!
Thanks again,
I live in Katy and evacuated 3 days ago just to be safe. I’ll wait until Sunday to come home just in case. Thanks for all you guys do!
If you’ve been through as many hurricanes as I have, since Alicia in 1983, you learn to always be prepared and thank God when the weather peeps are wrong. It’s a celebration 🥳
My suggestion for SCW is to not set Stage 2 or even Stage 1 flood alerts unless you have high certainty that there will actually be flooding. When you set the Stage 2 alert on Sunday (!!) at 9:53AM, organizations starting canceling or postponing events scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. People take SCW seriously and this is a large responsibility.
My suggestion for the National Weather Service is to not make tropical Cones of Uncertainty and Key Messages for a “Potential Tropical Cyclone,” but instead wait until such a cyclone actually develops. We don’t even have a tropical depression in the Gulf and there has been much commotion for little reason.
I am not sure how our society became so risk averse and prone to over-dramatize things but this tendency has infected scientific analysis.
Literally 15 minutes after your post the NHC declared TS Alberto. Maybe leave this to the professionals.
Alberto or no Alberto the message was always clear that the weather would be the same regardless.
The ignorance in these comments as of late is truly disheartening. These people need to go back to trolling the comment sections of local news station websites.
Maybe read them instead of rolling your eyes and discarding them. You might actually learn something new.
The NWS issued a flash flood watch for our area 27 hours before it was supposed to go into effect and then cancelled it right before the effect time of 7pm yesterday evening.
Flash flood? No, none were issued. Maybe a Flood Watch, but not Flash Flood. Big difference.
Yeah. because your event being canceled yesterday was the most important thing that happened.
Everyone heard you loud and clear.
Let’s change all the systems just for you.
I was expecting heavy rain in Pasadena area but nothing 😟
I like SCW because I like the way Matt and Eric present the information. I don’t know how to access or interpret all the models, nor do I want to. I appreciate that they discuss the potentials and possibilities based on what they see. Based on what I’ve been reading here, I knew there was the potential for heavier rain but also the chance rain totals would be on the lower side. I’m satisfied. Thank you.
Next storm will make up those disappointed of this one next week, another storm is is literally inside Alberto jow
Actually, it’s really more of a tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east, currently over the Yucatan. Very obvious on satellite imagery.
Sooo to get this right, yall are upset it didn’t flood?! lol so many internet meteorologist upset that probably work at Walmart lol
What’s wrong with working at Walmart? Don’t be a classist.
I work at Walmart don’t make fun of us you big bully
Can you ban stupid people from making ignorant disparaging comments? There’s always some AHs trying to destroy something good.
SCW guys are great. We appreciate you.
Says the person calling people stupid in their opening sentence! Lol! You can’t make that up.
Even with all the “misses” I still follow these guys and read their posts every day. They do a good job of showing how things went as well as predicting future storms. I like how technical they are. I watch the news meteorologists because they are attractive, I like looking at them and hearing them talk. Sometimes they wear really cute outfits. but thats it hahaha sorry.
it has been a great June so far, very typical for June, but atypical for most Junes in recent memory.
now that we’re getting into July, we’ve got 3 months of hot staring us down, I’ll take a few more days of nice weather before it starts to get really hot.
On the bright side, we’re lucky the CAG happened now and not later in the hurricane season, when a CAG can spin off 4s & 5s.
Keep up the great work and dont let social media comments pressure you into altering your methods and style of No Hype. Its weather and sometimes it does weird stuff. Stay the coarse.
there is always room for improvement, these models and their interpretations are terrible, need updates
I see the trolls finally found SCW comments. Sigh oh well I guess I just will read the wonderful stuff Eric and Matt wrote from now on. It was good while it lasted.
I agree. It is important to remember that the same experts who cannot predict the weather next week can predict climate change in the next thirty years with near 100% accuracy.
Trolls have been around this site for awhile now, its just more toxic and divisive. You should see the comments when there’s a post involving climate change
Yes,
SCW is the best in this area, bar none. I have to try to predict whether or not I’ll have to cancel my client visits or not every day. Many of them pay attention to the hypecasters. I always steer them to SCW. Even then, with all the variables and such a huge area of influence, they get it right more often than the other guys. But I still make determinations on the day of an appointment rather than even a day out. I’ve had clients reschedule because of a 90% chance of rain the next day and it was sunny and bright all day. The day they rescheduled for had a 20% chance and it rained all day. These guys do the best they can with what they’ve got. That’s all any of us can do.
Tina ,what happened to the Ike Reservoir,that Houston and Galveston want,the most solvable problem is use eminent domain and seize the land of golf course and then turn them into retaining pools,to catch overspill from the Bayou, especially those in Rivers Oaks Google Turning Golf Course Into Retaining Pools
People in Houston see their problems everyday and as more people move into Houston,the infrastructure of Houston break,Houston has one of the best mass transit that everyone pays for ,but do not use,maybe a tax like New York propose, making people pay a fee to drive in Manhattan ,make drivers from the suburbs of Houston pay for services ,but do not pay taxes in Houston and use the revenue to promote green sustainable infrastructure
By the way,the official rain totals is govern by the US to determine drought if farmers need assistance, even if no drop of rain ,has fell on their crop ,the US government determines how much rain fell Google NWS Hobby Google NWS IAH
No hype not right weather forecast
It’s been pouring non stop over here at Southwest side of town since 1:00 pm. Are you people still complaining about no rain?
But My YaRd, My PlAnS, BaD fOrECaSt…
This is the opening act 100 percent chance a Cat 5 will impact the Gulf,the ocean are lovely warm and deep, people in Houston got many months, before you ,sleep sleep
Too many antagonistic posters. Time to close the comments for the day?
Yes, it was time for that a a while ago. Also, time for a civility moderator, sad to say.
Well, I think we can all agree that escalated quickly. WOW. People complaining about a forecast that changes as models develop, who would have thought, especially as it moderates itself.
Can I get a Stage 2 at my house? Been pouring off and on for about 3 hours now.
All told, we have gotten a little over 2″ so far in Copperfield, so I’m good!
Not so bad after all, almost 3 inches here!
I’ve never ventured into the comments here before. I don’t think I will again. I mean, weather changes, so do forecasts. I have a huge oak tree that desperatley needs to come down but it’s too expensive so every time there is a storm coming, I like to know what to expect from wind so I can move to the only room in the house that the tree branches won’t hit if neccessary. So, I appreciate this very much and would rather be prepared then potentially have a tree kill me in my sleep.