Unfortunately, the eclipse forecast for Texas is fairly grim

Summary: In today’s post we dive into the eclipse forecast for next Monday, which for Texas is frankly not very good. As for our weather in Houston, we’ll see a warm day ahead of a front on Tuesday. That should bring us lovely, spring-like weather for the rest of this week.

Total solar eclipse

Although we are still a week away from the total solar eclipse on April 8, which will take place at approximately 1:30 to 1:40 pm CT for much of the line of totality across Texas, the forecast is pretty grim. Locally, in Houston, about 94 percent of the Sun will be covered on Monday at the peak of the eclipse. My preliminary forecast for next Monday is scattered to widespread rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. For areas along the line of totality in Texas, the outlook is not much better. The operational runs of both the GFS and European models have, consistently, shown nearly 100 percent cloud cover across much of the state during the early afternoon hours on Monday. There is a fair amount of support for this in the ensembles as an upper-level system crosses the southern plains. Many of these areas could see rain on Monday.

The map below shows the ensemble forecast for percent of the sky covered in clouds on Monday at 1 pm CT. For nearly all of the totality path in Texas, the value is about 75 percent. However, given the consistency in the operational models, I would lean toward a value higher than that at this time.

Ensemble forecast for percent of the sky covered at 1 pm CT on April 8. (Tomer Berg)

About this I would say a couple of things. First of all, we’re still a week out. Forecasts can and do change. But this is not a good place to be seven days from the total eclipse. If you really want to see the eclipse with clear skies, the northeastern United States looks like your best bet. Secondly, if you’re staying in Texas, the eclipse will still be quite a treat even with poor weather. Along the line of totality the sky will still get completely dark in the middle of the day, which will be an eerie experience indeed.

We’ll continue to track the eclipse forecast in the days ahead.

Monday

Today will be warm, but not quite as warm as we’ve been anticipating. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit highs to the mid-80s for much of Houston. It will be a breezy day, with southerly winds at about 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees. There will be about a 20 percent chance of showers tonight, and an even lesser likelihood of isolated thunderstorms ahead of an approaching front.

Tuesday

The front should push into Houston during the morning hours on Tuesday, reaching the coast by around noon. We’ll see an additional, low chance of rain with the front’s passage, but then we’ll see quickly clearing skies and drier air moving in with northwesterly winds. These clearer skies will allow highs to briefly reach the lower 80s, but lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of gorgeous spring-like days. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-70s, plenty of dry air, and lots of sunshine. Lows on both nights should drop into the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Seriously, these look like A+ days.

Thursday morning should be the coldest of the week. (Weather Bell)

Friday

This will be another nice day, with highs of about 80 degrees. A few scattered clouds will be possible with the return of the onshore flow, and lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days should see highs of around 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Sunday will see a decent amount of humidity, and we cannot entirely rule out some light rain showers later in the day. But for the most part, the weekend looks excellent for outdoor activities.

Next week

As mentioned above, rain chances start to increase on Monday, and through the early part of next week, in response to an upper-level system. It’s still too early to have too much confidence, but we’re talking days in the low 80s before a weak front (probably) arrives in the middle of the week.

19 thoughts on “Unfortunately, the eclipse forecast for Texas is fairly grim”

  1. I’ll be in Concan, TX on the Frio River for the eclipse. My weather apps have the chance of rain much lower on the southwest side than the northeast is side of the state. Hoping we get a peek of the sun in the afternoon.

  2. Cloud cover for the eclipse! Noooooo!!! Say it’s April Fools please! I mean, I’ll have a nice time visiting family in the DFW area anyway, but I will feel very sad for the friend we were planning to watch with, because he has been planning a ridiculously huge eclipse watch bash at his property in the path of totality for literally years.

    • I hope so as well. I paid for a room in San Antonio and for once didn’t pick the refundable option.

  3. We’re willing to travel within texas for eclipse viewing- where’s our best bet?

  4. Very disappointing that we may not get to see the eclipse here. This will be the last time a total eclipse runs through Texas until 2317. Yeah I’m probably not going to be around to see that one.

  5. Coming across the pond from UK to view the eclipse near Eagle Pass, so can’t cancel flights now. Fingers crossed there’s at least one break in the clouds during the 4+ minutes of totality.

    • Maybe for the same price as the air fare you might have been able to take one of the flights that follow the eclipse, that way you would not have been disappointed – as it appears you will be. However, on the bright side (no pun intended) Eagle Pass is considered to be one of the highlights of any visits to Texas.;-)

  6. Figured as much. Texas has some of the best and worse weather in the country. Can’t depend on any of it except the hot summers.

    • Spoken by someone who’s never seen one. I hope you are able to experience the eclipse. Then you can return to your post here where you’ll be eating plenty of crow.

  9. You spelled Tomer Burg’s name incorrectly on the credit for the eclipse & cloud cover map. He’s a talented PhD student with all kinds of interesting displays.

  10. This is why i bought multiple refundable hotel rooms, rental cars, and flights. Austin, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Syracuse, whichever has the best forecast on Saturday is where I’m headed, then drive up to a few hours from there depending on the forecast on the morning of the 8th

  11. Uuggghh. I’m currently planning to drive down in my small RV from Calgary to a camp spot NE of Dallas. Maybe time to reconsider the location and hunt for something further to the SW. Any ideas of the best places to consider? I was looking at Uvalde but can’t find a camp spot

  12. I drove 500 miles to see the one in 2017. It was pretty cloudy then too but I was able to look at it with binoculars and a 300mm lens and it was awesome.

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