We’re getting close to the point where we can start to look at 10-day forecasts for the marathon, but we’re not there yet. Still, the models remain pretty consistent regarding probable conditions that we’re likely to see for the morning of the run, and the best news is that there’s still no signal whatsoever for very warm conditions.
Right now we’re looking at a strong cold front coming into Houston on Saturday, Jan. 9th, which will keep the region cooler than normal through next Tuesday. The period of next Wednesday through Saturday, Jan. 16th appears to bring near-normal or slightly warmer than normal conditions. However the models appear to be trying to bring a cool front into the region something around Saturday, January 16th. I have to say that trying to time cool fronts 10 days ahead of time is really challenging.
With all that said, the take-home message at this point is pretty simple. The biggest concern for this marathon, especially after the weather Houston experienced around Christmas, is substantially warmer than normal temperatures on the day of the run. That appears very unlikely. Just one of the 50 ensemble members of this afternoon’s European model run show temperatures of 5 or more degrees warmer than normal. All the rest show near normal, or below normal temperatures That is something to feel good about, even 11 days out.
Here, then, is my latest forecast for conditions on the starting line of the 2016 Houston Marathon.
Temperature
Race-time temperatures will be near normal (low- to mid-40s), or below normal.
Confidence: Medium
Precipitation
There is a decent chance of light precipitation, depending on the timing of a cool front that may move through in about 10 or 11 days time.
Confidence: Very Low
Winds
It is difficult to make any predictions about winds at 11 days out.
Confidence: Very low
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”Noonan, you can do it” Caddyshack