In brief: Houston is seeing some of its coldest weather of the season this morning, but the good news is that we are going to get no colder than this. Also, some places across the state are much colder this morning. We’ll experience a slow warming trend into the weekend, with a rainy Saturday, before spring arrives next week.
Cold status
As anticipated, much of the Houston region has seen temperatures fall to between 25 and 30 degrees this morning, with only the coast remaining at or just above freezing. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday were colder than expected, hovering around the freezing mark all day, but persistent clouds overnight helped prevent lows from dropping too severely this morning. We have one more freezing night in Houston before nights become a little bit warmer.
Thursday
High pressure continues to reign over the region. And while that means sultry temperatures in the summer here in Houston, during the winter it typically means we’re seeing cold air advection from the north. With mostly cloudy skies this morning we will be slow to warm, although most of the region should reach above freezing by around noon today. Highs will generally be in the mid- to upper-30s for most, although some far inland areas may only briefly reach above-freezing this afternoon. At least winds will be lessening, as gusts finally die down later today. Expect another cold night, with temperatures 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.
Friday
This will be a mostly cloudy and cold day, with highs in the upper 30s to 40 degrees. Temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s.
Saturday
I’m afraid the first half of the weekend looks rather dreary. Temperatures on Saturday should, at least, push into the mid- to upper-40s. But we’re going to see continued cloudy skies, and a coastal low is going to bring a healthy chance of rain into the area. The most likely time for rain will be Saturday after noon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations, most areas are looking at 0.5 to 1.5 inch. So I don’t anticipate severe storms, just some cold and unpleasant rain. Lows on Saturday night should fall into the low- to mid-40s for most locations.
Sunday
After a potentially wet start, Sunday may see a few breaks in the clouds during the later afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s, with lows on Sunday night in the 40s.
Next week
Sunshine arrives on Monday, and we should see a pleasant week with highs in the 70s, generally, and lows in the 50s. Just as we’re pushing up toward 80 degrees mid-week, a weak front may arrive by Wednesday or so to cool us down slightly. But it’s all going to feel fairly spring-like, and the sunshine should be grand. Early next week we’ll take a look at whether we’re done with freezes in Houston for this year, but I think the answer is that we likely are after this week.
Thanks for all the hard work keeping us updated. Forecasting something as complex as the weather is challenging. Any thoughts on to why the weather has been such a roller coaster this winter and pretty much over the last 9-10 months?
The answer is in my user name
Considering our history of rapid weather shifts. A 20″ Blizzard in 1895, multiple deep freezes, heat waves, storms, tornado outbreaks and floods I do not think it is wise to attribute every extreme weather event to your user name. Man may be having an effect but many of these events have happened long before the Industrial Revolution and attributing every event to us is misguided.
I actually agree with that. Crazy extreme weather events have always happened and always will, regardless of man’s influence on the planet. However, the effects of human induced climate change that we are seeing today are making these crazy wild weather events happen more frequently and making them more likely.
The atmospheric ingredients needed for extreme events are coming together more often. For example, the Gulf was at record high temperatures last October, which made it much easier for a cat 5 hurricane to spring about. The warming Gulf is litterally a result of the warming we have caused with our greenhouse has emmisions. With a progressively warming Gulf, there is more water vapor being evaporated into the air which results in higher amounts of rain when storms develop, increasing the chances for frequent floods and more severe weather. It’s a probability game.
We didn’t create extreme weather and not every extreme event today is necessarily caused by us, but we are adding fuel to the fire, which increases the probability for an explosion given the right circumstances.
One of our most wacky winters was the 1995-1996 winter. We bounced back and forth from arctic coldsnaps to unusual warmth through most of that winter. In early February of 1996 we had an Arctic blast with highs in the 30s for several days and lows in the low 20s. Later that month it hit 90 in Houston.
Whiffed on the high yesterday by 10 degrees for spring branch just outside 610. Also said sunny on Thursday yesterday. Guessing we won’t see the Sun today. Super cloudy this morning. What’s the deal.
A quick look at the satellite loop shows the overhead cloud deck starting to thin and scatter a bit from the north, southward. While it doesn’t appear it will be a cloudless day eventually, we should start to see some sun and blue skies over the next couple of hours.
It’s incredibly sunny right now at 11:00AM.
Next week’s weather sounds nice – sure could use a pleasant week.
Me too ⚘
Looking forward to next week and Spring. It is quite obvious that meteorologists rely heavily on models. Maybe some old school techniques need to be brought back because these models were wrong big time with more rain than anticipated and colder temps.
They rely on models during hurricane season, don’t think people would be comfortable with “old school” techniques during this period
What exactly is an “old school technique” when it comes to forecasting? Guessing?
It’s always been models. And the misses used to be much bigger and much more dramatic. But it’s complex, and we still don’t know enough to get it right all the time. You’re just spoiled by how often it IS right these days.
It’s Bill-Paxton-sifting-dirt-through-his-hands type of intuition. Bc he paid attn to the environment. By going outside. Like, in the olden days.
You’re probably just too young.
I remember Bill Paxton in the movie Aliens from 1986. He was the marine who said “Game over man, game over!” While he didn’t pick up any dirt or make any weather predictions, I agree that the example he set in that movie could teach us far more about weather prediction than models, fancy degrees, or “experience”.
No, I just know what works and what doesn’t. Understanding the environment and how it works will tell you what will happen tomorrow, MAYBE the day after, for your immediate area. Nothing more.
I remember just how bad forecasts were in the early ’80s. Even the five-day was hit-or-miss. Back up north, every year we’d have schools close or delay in anticipation of big snow events that did nothing.
Folks are understandably upset about how unreliable the forecast has been — we rely on this to prepare in advance; otherwise what’s the point of putting out a forecast? I understand “it’s challenging”— but we have to be at our best when we have challenges and this was simply no good. Will have to turn elsewhere I suppose. I am upset, yes, because I have living plants that I actually care about and a reliable heads up would make me cheer on good forecasting..Eve when the weather was obviously not what was being advertised in real time , no one came in to do an update or says, oops y’all sorry we got it wrong and will figure out what happened and what we can do better
You don’t seem “understandably upset.” You seem “shockingly entitled.”
Maybe you should ask SCW for a refund. This free service definitely owes you an apology, Karen.
These guys are the best! Even the NWS got it wrong. But sure, try and go find better forecasting in Houston. You won’t find it. In case you didn’t know, the Weather here isn’t “Normal” anymore.
You obviously haven’t been reading Space City Weather for very long. Eric and Matt do an excellent job of keeping us informed, with many updates when needed, including nights and weekends. And they offer this to us for free. They usually explain the few times when their forecast is wrong. Are you perfect in every detail, every single day, on your job?
Please provide access to your work location so that it may be available to level-of-difficulty assessment and daily public critique.
Don’t let the door hit you on your way out.
Feel free to switch to the television forecasters who will predict the world is ending at the drop of a hat. Eric and Matt are the best there is, and they frequently admit that they may have made a mistake. And they also do this for free. But the weather is unpredictable in Houston. Anyone who has lived here for any length of time knows that, and the saying, “if you don’t like the weather in Houston, just wait a few hours – it will change.” If you want the same forecast/conditions every day, you live in the wrong town.
So because it’s free it can be inaccurate. Got it. Air is free, so let’s not complain if it’s polluted. People prepare according to information, that’s the root issue here. I’ll gladly be a proud Karen.
They missed on the forecast yesterday (so did the NWS) and that makes this site “inaccurate?” OK…you must not have been following them when Harvey came through. Eric and Matt were spot on and saved me from a lot of unnecessary fear that the television guys were spewing. I know I don’t do my job perfectly every single day. Do you?
Ok. Take care….🖐🏾
Do you hound your broker every time the market doesn’t perform to your expectations or is it just with the weather which is unpredictable by nature?
I guess you don’t consider them saying that a freeze was possible a week ago a heads up?
Saturday looks like great weather for the Dynamo home opener. Anyone want my tickets?
This cold is wonderful. Houston is a blazing inferno most of the year. Absolutely disgusting weather where you are unable to breathe. I don’t understand why anyone thinks this is a long winter?! It’s very short but oh so lovely.
A bunch of grown adults whining about the weather and forecast in the comments. Exactly what do you all expect? A crystal ball, fortune weather just for you? SMH. You’re adults, its cold in the winter. Follow the 3 P’s (pets, plants, pipes). Better to cover an not need to, than complain on a website. And to the person that posted “this is worse than a hurricane.” You are absolutely ridiculous and any statements and choices you make should be questioned. Eric and Matt are far to polite to say so.
Wednesday night /Tuesday morning was quite a bit colder than expected. Here near Dairy Ashford and Kirkwood the mercury outside the kitchen window read 20F.
Your gauge must be inaccurate, here near Westchase the lowest was 28.
It’s 24°F right now (9:40am) here in Magnolia. Prob will hover a high in the low 30’s today.
Based on the rainfall prediction map shown, we can more likely expect about 5″ of rain.
Definitely gonna be 5″ or sprinkles. No in between lol
Wow!!! looking forward to when all the complainers leave the site…..I mean if you are that upset, move on. As mentioned above it is a free site maintained by some very dedicated volunteers. Maybe you can give us a look into your daily work and give others a chance to criticize your work…..
The complaining a couple weeks ago about comfy 80s in February was ridiculous. I’ve never seen so much whining about such good weather before. We are so blessed to live in a climate that has periods of spring in winter and also has such powerful cold snaps to kill off the bugs 🐛 🪳
Ever since the Beryl hurricane, there hasn’t been a weather calamity in Houston, just some volatile temps this winter which is normal for this area.
Maybe because the “comfy” 80s for nearly two weeks in February is not normal and led to the warmest first half of February on record. Sure, warmer winters are probably nice for a lot of folks, but if it means more summers like 2011 and 2023, sign me out.
Two questions: first, is there any competitive league for forecasting where the most accurate gets prize money? Second, is it cold enough throughout TX for ERCOT to claim they are much better than in 2021?
This is nowhere near the 2021 freeze, especially since that freeze came with a good amount of precipitation. Most of us are dry right now.
” Second, is it cold enough throughout TX for ERCOT to claim they are much better than in 2021?”
ERCOT doesn’t direct electricity as a result of a forecast, they respond to electricity demands and direct it to where it is needed.
If you want to complain about your electricity failing, complain to the provider – CenterPoint around here.
I think some clarity is needed: ERCOT is accountable for the reliability of the grid, including power generation and was solely responsible for 2021. They are the grid reliability council after all. Centerpoint is responsible for the wires. Your electric provider (many choices) is a middleman. So it is a fair question if ERCOT is doing their job better and acting more accountable. I don’t know the answer either. Their board is the PUC who answers to Abbot.
For those upset with the frequency of the posts (especially when there’s no new updates to report) check out ABC 13; you’ll be inundated.
So then over prepare if you’re that concerned. We all knew it was going to get cold. If you’re unprepared, it’s no one’s fault but your own.
That’s a vast oversimplification of what we experienced yesterday but I appreciate your insight.
If we cant accurately predict the weather a few days in advance how can we predict the weather 50 or 100 years from now?
We can’t predict weather that far out. We predict climate. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
We actually had snow flurries in La Porte about 2 pm yesterday. That was a bit of a shocker.
Tracking weather back in the day or in today’s times is a guide with today’s tech it is more defined but with that said again it’s a guide then use your common sense on what you want to prepare for. I believe people who complain are scared/nervous and didn’t hear what they wanted to hear instead what potentially will take place.
I for one am thankful for modern models and the advances in weather technology. My father was a commercial fisherman in the 1970’s and 1980’s and the most up to date weather was from listening to a little brown Realistic Weather Radio broadcasting NOAA weather data 24 hours a day. I can still hear the voice on the little brown box saying NOAA weather radio operating on a frequency of 162.55 megahertz!
There is a stratwarm and another stretching of the polar vortex predicted for March so I would hold off on any last freeze predictions.
When was the SW event? I didn’t see that. I did notice week 1 of March had a light freeze and I blew it off as an outlier. But maybe it’s real…? Good to know – I lugged 200 # of flora inside Tuesday night in the rain. This is where modeling and correlation testing really shines.
Go to apnews dot com and search for the Article, “Polar vortex makes much of US colder than Greenland, but warmth is coming. Then more cold”.
Bright sun and light high clouds (Woodlands). Temps up over the last few minutes, so that’s nice.
As far as forecasts? Well, it’s worth what one pays for…
Bare Ice Blues
I am a bear, but…..
I am not a Polar Bear.
Where is my igloo?
Thank you so much for all your hard work! You guys are the best.
Do you see any flooding chances in the humble area from the rain on Saturday and Sunday?
Up north it was called “wind chill” and in Texas it’s “feels like”. Explain to me what effect it has on a human. Will we freeze faster since it “colder” than the thermometer? Will animals and plants freeze faster? Weather people seem to be warning or threatening us with these “lower” temperatures. Help me understand.
“Wind chill” and “feels like” are the same thing. And yes, our bodies will lose heat faster if exposed to cold wind than to still air, increasing the chances of frostbite and hypothermia when air temperatures are below freezing. More air comes into contact with your skin when the wind blows, which removes your kinetic energy faster, making it feel colder to our bodies than the actual air temperature. Plants won’t freeze from windchills if the air temperature is above freezing. It is a relative thing.
It’s the same concept as the heat index, except in reverse. If atmospheric moisture content is high, then 90 degrees is going to feel much warmer to our bodies because we rely on the evaporation of moisture to cool off efficiently. A dry 90 degrees will still feel hot but not near as hot with low humidity.
I moved here two years ago and ALWAYS read this article when it comes up in my feed. I am grateful to the guys that produce this information. And, mostly, I appreciate all the comments which are entertaining (and sometimes informative) as well.
I refuse to criticize these guys because they are doing the work we can’t do and they put it in a context that is relevant to and understandable by the average person – me.
Does anyone else feel the rain this weekend will be 3x the predicted?
It almost always rains way less than forecasted where I live so I actually feel like it’s going to rain 3x less than predicted.