Good morning. Very warm weather will continue this week, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees on a daily basis. However, it appears that the ridge of high pressure anchored over the southwestern United States will retreat somewhat by this weekend, allowing for some partly cloudy skies and, potentially, even some rain chances to seep into the area. Do not look for too much relief, but some chance of rain is at least better than none.
I also want to provide some big picture perspective on summer. It is now July 17. Some parts of the United States, including Alaska and the upper Midwest, have reached the peak of summer. However, for Houston the peak of summer does not come until early August—August 4 for Bush Intercontinental Airport, and August 7 for Hobby Airport. Truth be told, the period from mid-July through early September is typically the hottest of the year for us. Let us hope that things turn around this year.
Monday
If you ventured outside over the weekend, you have a pretty good idea for what to expect this week. High temperatures today will push 100 degrees for much of the area away from the immediate coast, with overnight lows only dropping to 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny, with light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances are virtually zero.
Tuesday through Friday
Conditions will be virtually the same for the rest of the work week, with the only change that highs may be a degree or two below 100 degrees. Still very hot, very humid, and very sunny.
Saturday and Sunday
As high pressure backs off this weekend, we should see the development of a few clouds and, accordingly, some slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s. We also may see the rotation of atmosphere disturbances into the area, and these could be the trigger for some rain showers.
The details of such systems this far out are impossible to predict, but I’d broadly predict a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and perhaps a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on Sunday. Whether these showers come to pass will also have an effect on air temperatures of course. All of this is fairly hazy at this point, but it is at least possible that the pattern will somewhat change.
Next week
Looking ahead to next week, it appears as though our weather will be fairly typical for late July, which is to say high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. We are, after all, approaching the peak of summer.
Is this what rice feels like when it’s getting cooked?
No. This is what it feels like to be a burrito in the microwave.
The morning cloud cover in Clear Lake felt glorious over the weekend. A welcome relief that, along with a stiff breeze and shade, made it not entirely intolerable.
Any thoughts on the remainder of the Hurricane season?
No, no, no……..we don’t use the “H” word around here.
Is it too early to ask when our first cold front is coming?! I’m already ready.
My birthday is the last week of September. I feel like it’s usually somewhere around then
Winter will be held from December 8th through December 10th. Plan accordingly.
Ironically, if the Houston temperatures drop back to normal, the early August highs and lows could be a few degrees cooler at highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Good luck with that…..
I’ve been waiting for this forecast! Hard to believe, but mid/high 90s sounds good to me right now. 😀
Hi y’all! I’ve been following you guys since Harvey and just want to say thank you for the hard work and accuracy (well as accurate as you can get in TX). I was curious about how much the strengthening El Niño might affect our fall and winter weather or is it too soon to tell? I’m hoping for an honest to God real fall and winter this year. But not like Feb of 2021.
El Nino usually brings us cooler and wetter than normal weather through the Fall and Winter because of a more southern track of the subtropical and polar jet stream. This isn’t a guarantee though because other factors can contradict what you would normally expect with the ESNO oscillations. However we do have a higher probability of seeing cooler and wetter conditions here in SE Texas through the Fall and Winter months with El Nino statistically. Fingers crossed 🤞🤞
Ha! Fingers, Toes, and Eyes crossed! Thank you
What atmospheric change needs to happen for some tropical moisture around here?
This upper level high pressure ridge that has been parked over Texas needs to back off which would allow for a low pressure area to develop overhead. However some years this high pressure systems stays in control through the entire summer. The Fall is usually when the dominant upper level high starts to break down and shift to the South. To summarize we may have to wait until September or October when the cool fronts start coming down to bring us widespread rains and cooler temperatures again.
Is it a sign of how beastly this summer heat has been that I’m using that peak summer temperature graph to plot out places to go as an escape?
Let’s just skip August and move right into mid-September.
On the bright side it’s only 70 days until Fall Day (first 65F morning) plus or minus 10 days or so. It’s going to feel so good after this summer!
I noticed it was 84 in Nashville, 84 in Miami, 71 in Vancouver and 81 in Denver last Friday whilst we soaked in 100 degrees meaning there are other cooler places we could move to that actually look nicer.
Well……………..bye.
The official temperature at Hooks Airport (KDWH) last night was 90 at 7:50PM. Then it allegedly fell to 82 by 8:35PM. Then it allegedly rose back to 90 by 9:25PM. For this whole period, skies were clear and wind ranged from 0 to 3 mph. Meanwhile, my thermometer a couple of miles away showed a decline from 91.8 to 90.1 from 7:50PM to 9:25PM. What can we conclude? Hooks Airport thermometer is malfunctioning.
Hi. Thanks for all you do. I believe in climate change and wondering if this is attributed to that, or just another hot summer/El Nino. All the news articles say yes, but I’m getting leery of “if it bleeds it leads” reporting these days.
Houston is hot. We go through this every year. July, August and September. The only difference is some years are hot and others are hotter. God Bless Houston!
It is axiomatic to say it is getting hotter – everyone knows that – but yesterday was the Katy Flatland and although I did not ride it because it was just too bloody hot, in previous years I have ridden it at the same time of the year and it was been remarkably comfortable and pleasant. Sadly, balmy days gone by never to be seen again.
I question my life choices every summer. I have a great job I wouldn’t be able to find elsewhere, but the trade-off is living in a place with one of the worst climates in the entire country (100% opinion, I know).
November through March I think “it’s not so bad here”, but then the cycle repeats again.