In brief: It decidedly did not feel like the holidays this weekend in Houston, and we’ve got a few more warm and muggy days before a front arrives to bring much more seasonal weather into the forecast. There will be plenty of drier air and chilly temperatures this coming weekend. But what of Christmas Day?
December is half over
Believe it or not, the month of December is half over. Until this weekend, the Houston region was experiencing fairly normal weather for this time of year. But highs this weekend were quite a bit above normal. In fact, Sunday morning’s low temperature of 66 degrees was a couple of degrees warmer than the typical high for mid-December. We’ll remain fairly warm and muggy until the arrival of a front on Wednesday afternoon or evening, which will bring cooler conditions through the weekend. As for the upcoming Christmas holiday forecast, I’ll make an attempt below.
Monday and Tuesday
The first two days of this week will be much the same, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With sticky dewpoints and light southwesterly winds, each morning will also be a candidate for fog, especially in coastal counties. Skies will be partly sunny during the daytime, with nights muggy and only dropping into the mid- to upper-60s for most locations. There will be a chance for some (mostly) light showers each day, but they will be pretty isolated. All in all, not very festive.
Wednesday
But fortunately, change is coming. Wednesday will start out much the same as the previous two days, which is to say warm and muggy. Some time, probably during the afternoon but it could be earlier or later, a front will move down from the northwest. There is likely to be a broken line of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, with the front. However, at least half of us, and perhaps more, are unlikely to see much rain. Anyway, temperatures will drop pretty quickly after the front’s passage, so you’ll notice it. Houston should reach highs in at least the mid-70s before the front cools us down. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, and 50s for the urban core of Houston and the coast.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The second half of the week looks to be mostly sunny and significantly cooler, with dry air. Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s, with lows around 50, and Saturday and Sunday a bit cooler still as a reinforcing push arrives. Lows this weekend should drop into the 40s in Houston, with the upper 30s possible for far inland areas. The last full weekend before Christmas should feel very holiday-like!
And what lies under the tree for Christmas Day?
Only a fool would try to make a point forecast for nine days from now, but I will step forward this morning to be the sacrificial fool. It’s pretty clear that we’re going to see a warming trend by Monday and Tuesday of next week. But how warm will we get?
Right now the best ballpark guess for Christmas morning is temperatures somewhere in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures probably will get into the low- to mid-70s. Dewpoints don’t look crazy high, so right now I don’t expect a muggy day such as we experienced this past Sunday. By the middle of next week the pattern will be supportive of rain, but there’s no strong signal yet for any widespread rain on Christmas Day. All of this could, of course, change. But right now the outlook is for an at-least somewhat pleasant day.
Can AI explain the measurement scale on Santa’s thermometer?
Omg right?!!
Perhaps it’s a specific North Pole-ian Elvish dialect, but I can’t be sure.
😀
❤
lol, it kind of seems fitting…
I know you can’t control the weather but why in general is it so warm and muggy in December? I know climate change and global warming and all but seriously what’s going on scientifically? I hate using the AC in December!
The Gulf of Mexico, which is responsible for delivering warm fronts after a cold front hits, is record warm right now along with the entire continental U.S as arctic air is currently locked in NW Canada, we are also currently neck and neck with 2012 for the warmest year on record in the Lower 48.
Yep and the polar jet stream has been staying further north more often in recent years during the winter. The Arctic Oscillation has been staying positive much longer than it used to as well. This is causing our average temperatures during the winter months to rise more and more at a very fast rate. For example, The same December that averaged above normal 30 years ago would be below normal based on the modern average. Other than the occasional cold snap, our winter temperatures are continuing to rise quickly just like the spring, summer, and fall.
KK the answer to your question is while it has been hot and muggy it is not unusual at all to have muggy Decembers in Houston. Currently our average temperature for the month is 59.0 F or about 2.3 degrees above normal. But Houston has finished the month of December 15 times with a warmer average temp since 1900. So I would not be so quick to chalk this particular December up to “global warming”. Although you would expect more months like this in a warming world it was not uncommon even in the early 1900’s. We live close to the Gulf of Mexico…
While it isn’t unusual to have warmer than normal weather during December, it is the frequency of these unusually warm months that have been increasing drastically in recent years. There were always flukes in the past, like December of 1984, for example. The warmest winter on record in Galveston is still the winter of 1889-1890, believe it or not. But the point is that the abnormally warm moments in the past were the exception, not the rule like it is now.
So, the warm pattern we’ve been stuck in this Fall and winter may not be 100% caused by Global Warming/Climate Change, but it has most definitely been intensefied by it mainly from the hotter Gulf and hotter air from the southern latitudes.
Disappointed to see y’all using generative AI.
We’ve done this once or twice before with images. Look for a post in early January going into detail about our plans to (basically not) use AI on the website.
Maybe you could dress Matt up in a Santa costume next time…lol…
Wow, the roachy weather in December ain’t my favorite. 🙁
Ready for this one, @Ashley (?).
Went to kitchen to get a glass of milk. Walked back into the bedroom, and glancing down, I noticed a tiny box moving slightly, just under the bed frame.
I thought, what the heck is that? Then I realized it’s a roach trap (small ‘opened at both ends’ box, with a highly sticky interior – it’s a Terro trap).
Then I thought, how in the world did it get moved about four feet away from its original placement (?) A roach? Doubted it.
It was a striped bark scorpion !! Its tail (with stinger!) got adhered to the sticky stuff inside the box, but its body was outside and it was dragging the box around. It got pissed off when I picked up the box – it was flailing its front pincher legs and trying to get loose.
How in the world it ended up in the bedroom is beyond us (Magnolia semi-rural) … thankfully, the Terro roach trap snagged it. Haven’t seen a scorpion for over ten years!! Been sharing photos with friends-n-family.
To clarify my sentence, “Haven’t seen a scorpion for over ten years!!” … have ONLY seen scorpions outdoors, not inside a home.
yummmm yummmm
yummmm yummmm
chewey gooey weather…
Grok’s temperature scale is questionable lol
I’m still old enough to remember the days when it used to actually stay cool/cold through most of the winter without multiple weeks of muggy 80s with lows in the 60s and 70s in-between the cool spells. Our winter warm ups used to last 1 maybe 2 days before the next cold front. There also used to be some more moderation in between cold fronts. Now we go from one or two cold days straight back up to muggy 80s the next day and the warm ups are lasting much longer than they used to.
We been mugged (of December) 🎄
Can’t think of a reason to complain about sunny afternoons in the low seventies with a pleasant gulf breeze. Took an extra walk yesterday which made my dog happy.
AI Santa has heterochromia – but at least non-creepy fingers?
Yes, as well as a left hypertropia. And his reading glasses have no power so he probably can’t see that scale anyway.
For those few who came to Houston because we’re wimps and can’t stand cold, this is blessed news. Thank you!