In brief: Today’s post discusses why Beryl’s winds were so strong hours after landfall, and then looks ahead to a forecast with some decent rain chances and slightly cooler daytime highs.
Hurricane Beryl’s persistent winds
Normally as a hurricane traverses land it starts to weaken fairly quickly. But Beryl didn’t as it moved north from Matagorda into Fort Bend County and Sugar Land. The storm maintained much of its strength and bulldozed right into the heart of Houston with near hurricane-force sustained winds and higher gusts. Why?
I chatted a little bit about this with Eric Blake, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, on the social media site X Tuesday. He noted that just as it was coming ashore, Beryl was starting to intensify rapidly, with a closed-off eyewall. He believes it would have been a Category 2 hurricane with just six more hours over the water. Thus, there was a lot of momentum built up by the storm.
So I think the storm’s long-lasting winds were a combination of factors. First, as Beryl moved north at about 12 mph, it crossed much of Houston just six hours after landfall. Second, as the storm came ashore with such momentum toward intensification, it took some time and interaction with land to unwind that momentum. Only after this could it start to weaken more rapidly once it passed north of Houston.
Weather isn’t all bad
I’m a weather and space nerd, so when I’m outside I always like to look up. Mother Nature has delivered us some harsh blows of late, but the skies were beautiful on Tuesday evening. I took this photograph of mammatus clouds just at sunset on Tuesday south of Houston, while walking around my neighborhood.
Wednesday
Skies today will be mostly sunny, with just very light northeasterly winds. Expect high temperatures in the low-90s for most locations, with inland areas possibly hitting the mid-90s. It will be a very warm day, with plenty of humidity. Areas near the coast, such as Matagorda and Brazoria counties, may see some showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, but most of our area should be rain-free.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Our pattern turns slightly more unsettled toward the end of the week as a stalled boundary will open the door to increased rain chances, especially for locations south of Interstate 10. Daily rain chances for these coastal areas will be on the order of 50 percent, with slightly lesser odds inland. Showers should mostly occur with peak heating, during the afternoon hours. Overall accumulations through the weekend don’t look excessive, but areas closer to the coast could see 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall, or a little more. The increased cloud cover will help to moderate daytime temperatures a bit, with highs expected in the range of upper 80s to lower 90s.
Next week
We’re going to really need our utilities to deliver on restoring power for everyone next week, because as high pressure likely becomes a little more dominant, we’re going to see daytime temperatures creep back upward. I’m not expecting a full-blown heat wave, but this kind of pattern typically produces highs at least in the mid-90s in the Houston area in July. That’s pretty hot to be without power.
I’m thinking we had a little bit of the “brown ocean affect” with warm bayous and lakes that helped keep its intensity a bit. Plus the previous day’s rains helping a bit too.
All I can say is thank god Beryl was battling that dry air in the gulf or god only knows what a monster it could have been for us.
Major storm last night knocked out power for 30k people in spring branch / west Houston. I thought no rain yesterday? What the heck was that about?
I feel your pain. That storm hit around midnight and, per Harris County rain gauge #2250 (roughly at Bingle between Westview and Long Point) dumped 1.72 inches in about an hour. And in the process knocked out power in the ‘hood and dropped more tree branches.
For a storm that wasn’t supposed to be big deal it sure sucks having no power til the 14th.
Why did Beryl, which was weaker than Ike, cause the same, if not more power, outages? Was it the storm or lack of preparation by Centerpoint?
For one – there are a lot more people living in Houston today than in 2008.
Also, many areas just recovered from the derecho and the quick-fix on infrastructure made them liable to fail again.
Evelyn, this is a great question, and one I’ve asked on this site as well. It is incumbent upon ourselves, and our political leaders, to get credible answers to this. This storm should have been less impactful thank Ike.
I just looked up comparisons of Ike and Beryl. Beryl beat Ike wind gust by 15 MPH. Generally speaking the wind is more likely to damage the power grid than a flood event. Higher wind, higher outages.
‘Wind gusts of 97 mph were reported at Bush Intercontinental Airport at 9:04 p.m. Wednesday. Until then, the strongest winds recorded at the location were 82 mph during Hurricane Ike, according to the National Weather Service.’
Beryl exceeding Ike winds by 15mph is key.
There were Cat 2 wind gusts at Bush 2+ days after the storm passed through? I don’t believe that
I checked today to see what my Congressman, Brian Babin, had to say about our situation. He’s currently focused on complaining about Chicago and other partisan nonsense that doesn’t help his district. How do you even get through to a guy like him? He’s never been reachable as many times as I’ve tried, and his solutions are always to blame people who aren’t even in power, despite he himself being on the Congressional Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.
Perhaps it was because we are still recovering from the derecho back in May. Lots of trees were damaged but still standing. Beryl took them out. Another factor, IMHO, is that forecasters where really downplaying this storm during the time period Centerpoint, and others, needed to put crews in place. Perhaps a little bit of hype is necessary to kick start folks into preparing.
Ike went east of downtown right? So maybe the western parts of town weren’t as hard hit since Beryl’s eye went through Katy. So more of the region was on the dirty side for Beryl. But even with Ike we were out of power inside the loop for 2 weeks(ish).
Yes even in Brazoria county we didn’t have power for 11 days.
there was very little time for preparation as even on Saturday we still thought it was going to go up through Corpus Christi area. Another thing is in the past five years, centerpoint has been taking cables from the underground and installing them on poles. They did that on my neighborhood. Not only is it an eye sore but now every little wind or ice from the storm shakes those lines and damages the power. The city kept saying how it is easier for the crew to have the electricity on poles but the problem is in a city like Houston where weather is so extreme it makes more sense to have everything buried. Another excuse they had is that repairs to cables underground require a lot of work since sometimes you have to break asphalt and are expensive… Another factor is also the storm went by Houston’s west side which means the ‘dirty’ or strongest part of the storm hit the center of the city. Many factors to consider why there was so much damage. The city and centerpoint could have prepared better for it though.
I was out of town during Ike so I’m not sure, but my understanding is that the center of Ike was a little further east than Beryl’s center, which means a good part of the Houston area would have been on the better side of it. I am on the northwest side right up against Cypress, and the eye passed right over us for Beryl.
That said, I have finally hopped on the train that Centerpoint and/or local leaders need to do better for our city’s infrastructure. Some people that had long power outages after the derecho because they had extensive repairs done didn’t even lose power this time, which to me shows that proper maintenance will help a lot and perhaps isn’t being kept up as it should.
On top of that, everyone (homeowners, developers, Centerpoint, and the city/county) needs to do a better job when it comes to maintaining and planting trees. Rows of big trees are being planted right under power lines, which is ridiculous. Trees are also improperly trimmed because people just want to hire someone cheap instead of certified arborists, and then the health of the tree is at risk, making it more susceptible to damage and falling. I want to stress that the answer is not less trees – we need the trees to battle the rising heat from all the concrete – but rather proper maintenance and planning of trees.
There is a cost if we demand never losing power for a halfweek, ever, instead of current once a decade for avg house. In the north they need power to run gas heating in house, after 2 days without power their northern pipes freeze and leak, so they pour money into redundency. As a guess their power is about 40% costlier, like extra $4000 every 10 years as guess. Is avoiding halfweek in dark worth this $4k? I choose to keep $4k.
Having lived in the freezing north I can tell you that those numbers are way higher than what it actually costs. Power everywhere I’ve lived has been on par or less than here in Texas. You have to remember that the multiple city-wide repairs every year cost us millions each time they happen and that that money is recouped partially in energy expenses.
Charlotte for instance chose to focus on underground lines. Now they have very few outages and the cost for electricity is about 80% what it is here even taking into account the difference in needed AC/Heating.
Not offering answers, but for comparison I lived in Klein for Ike and went without power for over two weeks. The tree damage in my old neighborhood looks similar. However, Beryl was more of a direct hit on Houston than Ike, which tracked a bit to the east.
I keep seeing people say, “This was only a Cat 1, we’re really in trouble with a stronger storm.” Given that this one sustained it’s strength for so long, is it fair to say to say this punch like a much stronger storm by the time it got to Houston? I’ve tried to find wind speed in downtown for this one vs Ike, but haven’t been able to find it.
It will take a few days longer, or perhaps weeks, for this type of analysis to be done.
Curious if any tornadoes, my neighborhood had a lot of damage, brick fences collapsed, shrubs uprooted. Please post if you obtain any info, and thanks for you dogged determination to help us stay safe.
The eye went right over where we live, but it didn’t seem that bad, certainly not as bad as Ike was where we used to live (just about 20 minutes farther east).
If CenterPoint had any competition, they’d lose millions of customers.
Why in the world is everyone so harsh on Centerpoint?
Are you (everyone) willing to:
Do what it takes to keep trees away from power lines?
Absorb the enormous cost it would take to truly harden the grid?
They have plenty of room to maintain and harden the grid considering their 2023 profits were $6.536B.
“Do what it takes to keep trees away from power lines?”
You mean what Centerpoint was supposed to be doing all along?
If a tree on my property is touching, or about to touch, a power line/pole, it’s up to me to trim it before it gets there OR notify Centerpoint about it. Centerpoint is not responsible for policing tree growth on my property for me.
how about bury the lines instead? so stupid to just cut the trees considering Houston used to be a forest.
Houston did not used to be a forest. It was primarily tall grass prairie until major settlement and farming had overtaken the landscape. The only part of Houston that was truly forest is around Kingwood/Humble at the edge of the Piney Woods. Some thin stands of trees existed close to bayous, but for thousands of years nearly-annual wildfires kept trees from dominating our landscape. If you read early descriptions by naturalists they describe a vast prairie ecosystem.
But I agree that the lines should have been buried regardless.
That was an excellent succinct explanation on why Beryl kept it’s intensity overland. Thank you for all the information you provided us during this terrible storm.
Thank you for the clarity on why Beryl ‘Beryl-d’ so aggressively! Though I don’t think any of us thought it would be as strong as it was, some conversation around the dirty vs. clean side of the storm in relation to metro Houston and a Matagorda landfall would have been helpful. Hindsight, as always, is 20/20.
Thank you for all that you do to educate, inform, and keep us all safe!
I thought it was going to be worse than it was actually. I thought it was going to hit us and be a cat 2 after it left the Yucatan. But the forecasts said no. And after seeing and going through TS Alison, Ike, Harvey and imelda and those 2 random storms that rolled through a couple of months ago…nah.
People were downplaying Harvey as it came in too an I kept citing TS Alison had similar conditions and Harvey is a full blown hurricane. Once again…I’m not surprised but everyone else is? I’m not following…
This might be an opportune time to re-run your GENERATOR INSTALLATION STORY at your house along with your recommendations for one. Many of us would like to read that one again. Thanks.
Ooh, great idea! For people who want the link right now, it’s: https://spacecityweather.com/a-candid-view-on-installing-a-whole-home-generator-in-2022/
Thanks, Eric. I think this is important for everyone to understand. That a “little old Cat One” could do this kind of damage. Sunday night, Anthony Yanez actually said, “I think this storm could strengthen once it gets on land due to ‘ventilation.’” I can’t remember the full explanation, but he thought even if it came in at Matagorda as a TS, it would become a Category One over land. Also, it holding together as long as it did? No one could have been prepared for that as a Category One. I’ve started telling people “a hurricane is a hurricane regardless of intensity number.”
yeah i hope it was a humbling experience for folks acting like cat 1 is no big deal. also for the people saying “it wont hit us” all last week. anything can happen and you’re an idiot if you write off a storm while it’s still over water. it ain’t over til it’s over.
the winds were scary as hell. i dont even want to imagine a cat 4 or 5 waltzing over us like Beryl. not good.
I agree and I am humbled. I took it seriously, but it was still very scary for a CAT 1 and I will have more respect for a CAT 1 in the future.
Financial pro-tip: invest in companies that make generators. Demand is gonna go way up.
I’d temper this advice because not everyone with a house is going to be able to afford a generator.
There are many cash-strapped homeowners who can barely afford their mortgage. They will be scraping the cash together just to repair the present damage (or cover their deductible).
Bingo! I’d love even a portable generator, let alone a whole home. But financially, that’s not currently in the cards.
Normally I would agree with you. But given the increase in storms combined with the fragility of the grid during no-storm events like extreme heat or freezes, I think more people are seeing generators as a necessity rather than a “would be nice to have” addition. I have a generator and over the past few days several of my neighbors have asked how much they cost. So they will be shopping.
Just be sure to sell before the boom is over. You should see what Generac’s stock price has done since the big freeze.
We don’t have plans to install a ‘full house’ generator; however after the straight line storm (I am in Austin county) a quick, early trip to a ‘big’ store got us a propane powered generator ($900) which was utilized to keep four refrigerators, one deep freeze, one home (not using for A/C though), fans running for 24 hours (using less than one bar b q size propane tank). Our location is such that flooding is never a problem. We survived URI using one small propane heater.
An advanced city like Houston needs its utility provider to be accountable. We cannot accept their excuses for their inability to step up and be prepared for predicted weather events. This was not an earthquake that came out of the blue. The solution is not for Houstonians to roll over and acquiesce to purchasing home generators. That is NOT the answer. Imagine living in a city where every household is running their own generators. It would be unbearable from an environmental standpoint. Invest in better infrastructure.
To the SCW team…thanks for all the “handholding”…a much-appreciated service!
You’d have to consider the fuel mix to determine if the environmental impact for a few days would be that much worse. My neighbors have home generators hooked up to their natural gas supply, though most would be using propane. Plus you need to back out the emissions from your normal day-to-day supply which is not being consumed while the power is out. I heard someone say solar works after a storm but you have to have a battery if you are without electricity (don’t know much about home solar). How does our infrastructure compare to other hurricane-vulnerable states?
Typical home solar will not work when the grid is down. Typically all that residential solar does is back-feed to the grid any additional power your house is not using. The systems just aren’t set up to allow that power to be used by the home without grid backup. I do know of some people who have Tesla solar batteries that will allow them to use their A/C during the day and keep everything on overnight, but that is something just out of reach of the average person due to price point. Much easier to get a $500 generator and run fans and the fridge.
We are lucky enough to have solar and batteries. They are working like a charm rn, and are blessedly quiet. There are some programs to help with the cost. The IRA is still offering a 30% tax credit on panels and batteries, or just on batteries. There are also some programs for low income neighborhoods where a house can be chosen for solar and batteries, and the cost will be born by community groups as long as that house is a “resilience” house. i.e can be used as a cooling center, or a place to charge devices for a block. https://www.governing.com/infrastructure/solar-power-may-finally-be-coming-to-low-income-neighborhoods
Centerpoint bet the forecasters were right and lost. Already our gas monitor is going off in the house as the windows are open and we are surrounded by generators. We live in a liveable forest. Centerpoint hasn’t trimmed branches over powerless in years! Beryl may have fooled the models, but Centerpoint is still responsible for so much of this damage. Hospitals and doctor offices still have no power. Think of all of the patients on dialysis, undergoing chemo or radiation who can’t receive treatment. Shame on Centerpoint.
At least those trees are sucking up the gas exhaust invading your home some
houston has the infrastructure of a third world country. world class economy with rampant pot holes and electrical grids that fail when a breeze or cold front comes by. i dont mind the heat here. it’s the lackadaisical, nonchalant moseying around our govt does. why do we even have governments? why do i pay taxes? insane
ash, you hit it the nail on the head! I’ve been wondering where all my tax money goes to. Meanwhile, Govt employees ie, HPD/HFD/COH (minus teachers) are retiring at age 50 with huge pensions. Folks are too afraid to ask these questions.
this is what people vote for though… you just can’t get through to Houstonians about this. Wish we could. You look at Tiffany Thomas for example, no one running against her and all you see are pictures of her eating at restaurants, changing her hair color, nails etc.
It goes to sprawl. Too much road and other infrastructure for the number of people.
Your tax dollars aren’t going to power companies. They have nothing to do with electricity. WTH does government pensions have anything to do with the power being out? Nothing. Most people like you are clueless of who does what and who works on what. Let your Capitalism Ring!
THIS.
Our power goes out regularly on the north side for absolutely no reason. There will be no wind or rain l, and it just shuts down for hours. It also flashes on and off and makes all the appliances and lights flicker. I know this is horrible on appliances. We used to live in an older neighborhood in West Houston and never had this problem. Now we live in a neighborhood that is 5 years old and it does feel like our infrastructure is comparable to a 3rd world country. How is it that newer areas have WORSE infrastructure??? Seems like CenterPoint has a problem with quality control???
It’s blatant neglect – they reported $6.536B in profit in 2023, and I have seen people in our community bash those of us asking why we aren’t better prepared (actually told we should “learn to live like a Texan and buy a generator”). I don’t understand why we, the voting public paying taxes, are allowing it to happen. More people need to wake up and demand better. :-/
I live in an old neighborhood in West Houston and we are not getting that same problem you are describing. All these new utility poles and cables out and in the past 5 years it’s been electricity on and off. My ACs got damaged.
As a resident of Kingwood that received a oak tree through our roof in Ike, and miraculously did not get damage this go-round; my overall impression is that somehow tree falls were significantly more in Beryl. Some neighborhoods really got roughed up.
Not sure if this is my fading memory or a real observation. I won’t take a Cat 1 for granted anymore.
I have never seen people over trim their trees in Houston more than they did last year and this year. We had a bad drought last year and people were over trimming their trees, weakening them more than they already were. People don’t realize that when you trim huge branches of trees, they loose some of their roots which anchor them to the ground. Trimming is good for the trees but you have to do it early in the spring to give the tree enough time to heal and gain strength. Yet people were trimming them in the middle of summer out of panic. Even my neighbors came out and seeing how many trees were out, are thinking about trimming theirs lol. The tree trimming companies are all over the place leaving their cards and offering their ‘services’ as supposedly certified arborists. When you remove entire trees, you leave spots for the wind to come in and any other trees around are now exposed to those winds. This is why so many are down. In my neighborhood the trees that fell or have the most damage are the ones that were over trimmed or the trees that grew too tall solitary with nothing around them. I see it all over Houston. Also many people never water them which makes them weak.
Unfortunately, a world class city like Houston is stuck with a third world utility like CenterPoint. They are just terrible.
They are shamefully terrible.
Hi Eric, everything in our yard was soaking wet this morning. Was that just a very heavy dew??? Thanks!
We had a thunderstorm last night around 1am. I’m in northwest Houston. Short-lived but pretty soaking rain for a bit.
Is there a possibility that Beryl was a proficient tornado maker or vortex producer? That would explain the type and amount of damge we saw.
Beryl barreled right through us.
During the last two sets of bands in Spring, the eaves started creaking and knocking. So, back to the safe room. Then the entire roof started creaking, groaning, popping, snapping. These sounds were chasing each other round and round, like a wooden rollercoaster circling the attic. This occured for at least half an hour. The last rain band curved and carved itself so we got almost all of it.
Been through lots of hurricanes. Never encountered such a thing before, when the roof starts shivering its own timbers.
Our roof went twice in May. Of course it went again.
I can’t help but feel this is a warm-up/warning for Hou.
My heart goes out to everyone suffering from the heat. Please take care of yourselves and watch for signs of heat illness.
We experienced Ike’s left side eye wall, and that was pretty bad. We experienced Beryl’s “dirty” side, and I have never seen winds like that. It’s amazing that damage was not much more severe and widespread.
Also, I only saw it mentioned a few times ,but Beryl was a relatively small hurricane. Yet when it hit it’s bands stretched all the way to Louisiana.
Eric, there are a lot of interesting things about Beryl to discuss, but what was up with your Ars Technica article? The tone was pure doomerism and came across as if you are blaming Houston for being an energy capital. Given that A.T. has been sinking into the unscientific for a while now, it seems as though they told you to be more apocalyptic. Please say it isn’t so.
My brother, had a lot more damage during Ike due to the storm surge. Where we live in Houston, we had a lot more trees down after Ike. We lost three in this storm but lost 10 in Ike. It took over two weeks to get power after Ike because of all the trees in this neighborhood. I sure didn’t expect a storm like Beryl wreaking so much havoc but I feel like we were sitting right in the center of it when the wind was blowing at 84 mph. That’s what Hobby Airport reported. And it definitely was intense.