In brief: We’re continuing to follow the possibility of heavy rainfall next week in the greater Houston area, especially for coastal areas. We’re still far from having all of the details, but we know enough to take the threat seriously.
Weekend outlook
Happy Saturday, everyone. If sunshine and heat are your jam, you’re in luck this weekend. Today, especially, will bring brilliant blue skies and temperatures in the mid-90s. There may be a few clouds tomorrow, but I still expect mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. It’s possible we’ll see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, but most of us will simply be sunny and warm.
And then it won’t be.
Next week
The overall pattern appears unsettled for most of next week, with a very healthy chance of showers each day, and the middle of the week especially concerning. A low pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico will help push a large plume of tropical moisture into Texas and Louisiana. This threat of heavy rainfall next week will materialize whether the low in the southern Gulf becomes a tropical depression or storm. In fact, it doesn’t really matter. The table is set, regardless.
Over the last 24 hours some of our guidance has been showing excessive amounts of rainfall along the Gulf coast, but whether these bullseyes occur over Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Port Arthur, or Southern Louisiana is something we cannot say. In terms of timing, the greatest threat of heavy rainfall likely will come during a period from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.
So what does this all mean? If you live inland of Interstate 10, the overall risk is lower. Most of these areas are likely to pick up 2 to 4 inches between Monday and Friday. However, areas along and south of Interstate 10 are likely to see 4 to 6 inches of rainfall next week. Our concern is that some localized areas may see 10 inches or more of rainfall next week given the tropical nature of this rainfall. The expected level of moisture in the atmosphere—a value known as precipitable water—is very high, and such levels are capable of producing high rainfall rates that can quickly flood streets. We don’t know for sure whether this kind of pattern will establish itself over the Houston area, but it is a distinct possibility.
I’m writing all of this on a Saturday morning not to scare you, but rather to prepare you for the possibility of heavy rainfall next week. We will continue to watch this closely, and update this weekend as warranted.
I know it’s too early to speculate, but Harvey comes to mind when I read forecasts like this one.
I’m thinking more like TS Allison since it also came in June.
Ugh let’s not. That was a bad one personally. 😵💫
Hey Lisa, Check out page 14 of this report on TS Allison. The system went north and then back south. Pretty detailed https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/allison.pdf Definitely hoping it doesn’t do anything like what happened during Allison
“Hurricane” is never mentioned. “Stalling” is never mentioned.
Like he said, “The table is set.”
No. Go back and read the space city posts about Harvey. Space city and many others knew we would get lots of rain from that storm.
Not to dismiss, but recall the “perfect” BAD conditions that occurred for this disaster; mainly, BIG high pressure system to north that basically locked in place for SE Texas. Unreal…
yes, absolutely. As it should! However, we can, at least, be thankful that “only” 10 inches maximum of rain is forecast for the whole week. Compared to the Harvey catastrophe, which was 10 inches of rain each day for six straight days. So, take heart! And be encouraged!
Again with the Interstate 10 nomenclature. So Cinco Ranch and Baytown should expect roughly the same forecast? Clearly not.
Yes, west of downtown they should probably say something like “south of 59.” South of I-10 makes sense east of downtown.
Actually, that could easily occur. Harvey flooded the Houston area big time while also setting records for rainfall on the far east side of Baytown.
Just don’t be the 3rd monkey to gain access to the ark!!
Hahahahaha!!!!!
Yes, one has to wonder what happened to all the other animals which were unlucky in that particular lottery.
And, given the current state of the world and its man-made mess, it’s a shame the pair of human animals were not locked out before that particular boat left the dock.
Thank you for keeping us up to date.
Thank you! Always appreciate a heads up! 😁
Folks, There was no innuendo that this could be anything like tropical storm Allison or hurricane Harvey. Let’s have the voice of reason take over rather than be fraught with panic unnecessarily.
I know! People are ridiculous with their unwarranted panicking. This is why we all come to this page. If you want to panic, go back to ch 2 or 13.
Or the Weather Channel! Sensationalist journalism at its finest!!!
Harvey was a tropical storm, not a hurricane, when it inundated Harris County. I went through both TS Allison and TS Harvey, and those horrible memories haven’t even faded, let alone gone away. Anxiety is a natural reaction to any prospect of tropical activity, and many people deal with it by expressing it. I consider this post to be a ratcheting up of the threat level, and my anxiety has increased accordingly.
Yes but Houston was experiencing rainfall from Harvey before it even made landfall.
Harvey was a category 4 hurricane – not a TS.
Harvey was downgraded to tropical storm status inland before it turned to the east and headed for us. This is clearly shown on the track map. My point in stressing this is that tropical storms and depressions cause our most catastrophic rainfall events, not hurricanes.
Have to remember Harvey stalled over us also, a hurricane comes in and most of the time keeps moving on
Here’s the map I was referring to. I had forgotten that the center of circulation didn’t get very close to us here in Harris Co.
https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey
Harvey was a cat 4 hurricane when it made landfall at San Jose Island, Texas. It was a tropical storm when it dumped all that rain on Southeast Texas and Houston.
I understand. It will be ok, feel what you feel but don’t let it over take you; just be prepared for whatever may happen or not! 🙂
Most all of us went through Harvey and Allison and a lot of us flooded in both. Chill. You’re giving in to what MSM wants.
Thanks, I get it, and if your mood is chill, great! I didn’t flood in either Allison or Harvey so it has nothing to do with a personal fear of flooding. It’s dread of widespread suffering and destruction for people in general.
Between your expressed words and your user name, thank you for thinking of humanity. Also appreciate the work you probably do for elections. Very important commitment of time and service.
💗
The reason I mentioned Harvey is because we got water in our house. Not a lot, but enough to cause fairly extensive damage. Living in Santa Fe, we depend on ditches and canals for drainage and I don’t have a lot of faith that our drainage district has kept the system up to its full potential for moving water like it was originally designed to move. That causes concern with forecasts like this one.
You’re lucky @GalvTexGuy … our Cypress home got six foot of Harvey water … that whole Cypress neighborhood of families suffered greatly.
Our Cypress home doesn’t even exist anymore – H.C. bought us out, along with about 20+ other properties and the houses all got razed.
Why we’re now out in Magnolia with many acres and high elevation.
Thank you. These comments are ridiculous. And I thought my anxiety was bad.
Anyone know if parking near Galveston port floods easily, have family members that have a cruise on Monday and wondering if their vehicles will be flooded due to this rain event?
Galveston is a young, marshy sandbar. Yes, it floods very easily, and from more than one side. Find a parking garage if you can or an alternative.
There is an indoor parking building at 37th and Harborside that is elevated enought I believe would be fine,but it is probably going to be expensive. During Harvey we parked in the target parking lot. We weren’t the only ones either.
Never seen the port parking lots flood by rain; even during Harvey. The port did flood during Ike, but that was due to storm surge, not rain. You’ll be fine. (If it’s raining when you’re going to or from the port, however, you risk encountering deep street flooding, especially if it’s high tide)
Thanks as always. Know the “real” story now as cue up the “hype screamers” in
3, 2, 1…….
I will bring out my rain booties!
Woke up early and cleaned out the gutters just in case this thing drops a ton of rain and I sweat so much, my shirt looks like the rain is already here lol
I’ve been watching this mess for the last week and it’s become more and more disorganized, even more so this morning. I’m grateful. We could have been looking at a serious wind storm instead of a blobby deluge.
At least that’s a positive.
Thanks for the update Eric. I always trust you, and now Matt too, to share with us the necessary info so I and my family are prepared for the kaleidoscope of weather we get year around.
This storm possibly stall , between Corpus and Houston , according to Meteoblue ,it is relatively accurate Google Meteoblue Houston Texas
I’m probably speaking too soon and at least it’s better than that horrible heat dome we had last year that would not go anywhere. At least the rain keeps the temperature from jumping up to being 110 actual temperature which could result in 120 feels like temperature. I know we all appreciate your weather forecasts and how you really do a good job of attempting no high no Chicken Little the sky is falling or any of that stuff. Have a good weekend and Happy Father’s Day.
Where does Sugarland fall on the directional description of I-10, often seen in these forecasts?
Last time I checked, Sugar Land was south of I-10. There’s nothing magical about the highway though. It’s just a rough way to divide up the general area.
The National Weather Service is using highway 59 as a reference: “For next week, rainfall totals in areas
south of US-59 are expected to range from 4-8 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Areas to the north will generally receive 2-4 inches during this same period.”
That makes absolutely no sense. 59 is north/south freeway. It can’t be.
It makes perfect sense if you actually use your eyes and look at a map. 59 bisects downtown neatly along an east-west line.
We need drizzle rain
Miami just got 20” of rain with no named storm. Prepare for same scenario. Not a prediction, just prepare as if it’s gonna happen.
Enjoy the blue sky, sun, and puffy white cumulus clouds today and Tomm. It all goes downhill quickly next week
More bad news.
12z GFDL shows a strong tropical storm nearing category 1 hurricane strength that is approaching Texas/Louisiana in 10 days.
Mike ,the water are peaking around 90 Degrees,showing the track between Corpus and Houston,trap by a high stalling it close to Houston for about a day with a 1005 mb Google Meteoblue Houston
Mike and Yrral if you both know more of weather then you should directly contact meteorologists with your data than randomly post here
I’m so beyond fatigued of living here. Between the heat and storms, it’s ridiculous. Like we don’t have enough to worry about these days without this weather BS on top of it. Just a few more months and I finally get to leave this city. No more of anxiety-inducing nonsense weather all year.
The issue with that is good luck finding an area that doesn’t have a big threat for extreme weather throughout the year. You think the spring storms are bad here than don’t move to any of the midwestern states. We get measly F0 and F1 tornadoes here, but they get F3-F4s with the occasional F5. Storms are more commonly severe in the southeastern states as well. And if you go further north you will have to deal with extreme cold and icy snowy conditions all the time 4 or more months out of the year which can knock power out for a long time. And in the rocky mountain states you have to deal with those lovely mudslides that destroys homes and roads. The entire gulf coast has a decent threat for hurricanes each year with Flordia being the worst. The frequent extreme storms we saw this spring were pretty unusual in any given year but I agree that we probably are one of the worst areas for weather worries overall. The best place for somewhat stable weather in the United States is probably along the West Coast of California, but than you get to worry about deadly Earthquakes. So, pick your poison at this point.
I lived in the midwest for many years. And the east coast. And the plains. And none of it was as crappy as Houston.
Can’t say I disagree. The heat and humidity for 5 months here alone is enough to make me want to move to a cooler and drier state in the midwest.
I have read the Gulf Coast weather is one if not the most difficult to forecast. Incoming fronts move in from the north, west and the gulf. If, or when they collide it becomes even more unpredictable. Very frustrating but it is what it is. There has to be something to this because what other job in the world could you be accurate only 60% of the time and still be employed? These scientists know their stuff but mother nature likes to play games. Personality I’ll stay here to avoid harsh winters.
I do not know,why they change the track from ,7 days to 5 days, something this way wicked cometh to the Gulf next week
They completely missed the derecho and botched the forecast for the following month…no hype = no accuracy
So did every other meteorologist. Your point is?
Why are you here then? You can visit what you deem a more accurate weather website.