Good morning. Houston will have a couple of more sunny days before the forecast turns messy this weekend, with a fair bit of rainfall across the holiday weekend. As for the Christmas Day forecast, unfortunately that’s still a stocking stuffed full of uncertainty.
Tuesday
Today should be a fine winter’s day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and partly sunny skies. Our air is starting out rather dry, but with light easterly to southeasterly winds we’re going to see humidity levels start to rebound. We’re still going to see one more night on the cool side, with lows generally dropping into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, before milder conditions arrive for the rest of the week.
Wednesday
This will probably be the last day we see a lot of sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, with southeasterly winds that may, at times, gust up to 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be a warmer, perhaps 10 degrees higher than Tuesday night.
Thursday
Skies will be clouding up on Thursday in response to increasing atmospheric moisture levels. But the overall dynamics in the atmosphere won’t favor rising air, so I don’t expect any significant rain showers yet. Look for highs of about 70 degrees, with lows on Thursday night dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some rain chances may start to creep in on Thursday night, we’ll see.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Conditions turn unsettled for the weekend. We’re confident that highs will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, lows around 60, and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point it looks like there will be a healthy chance of rain each day, perhaps 60 to 70 percent. It’s not going to rain continuously, but there should be some on-again, off-again type showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms. (The overall setup does not particularly favor severe weather, however). Overall rain accumulations during this period are likely to be 1 to 3 inches.
Christmas Day
I don’t know!
Like, I’m really sorry. But the models (and humble forecasters) are still struggling with the timing of a Pacific cold front. This is important because the front is likely to generate the most favorable conditions for thunderstorms. If this all passes on Sunday night, then Christmas Day could see clearing and cooler weather. But there is absolutely no consensus for this right now, and we could very well end up with a fairly messy Christmas Day with some showers. Temperatures and humidity, too, are going to be dependent on the front. This is all pretty worthless, I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.
Next week
At some point next week—Monday morning, Monday night?, Tuesday?—the front will be well and truly passed, and our weather should cool down and settle down. We’re likely talking mostly sunny days, highs in the upper 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s. This cooler pattern is likely to hold out for the remainder of 2023.
Holiday travel
We realize that not everyone is going to hang around Houston for the holidays. With that in mind, Matt has written a US travel guide over on The Eyewall. Of note are the potential for flooding in California this week, and storms in the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve.
Merry Merry and what we love about you two is that you are always honest and I love the chuckles you throw in. Thank you!
2023 is going to be the first year without a freeze since 1991, at least at Hobby.
Oops I meant 2005.
Further inland, magnolia, has suffered two light freezes
Further inland, it has frozen multiple times as the heat island effect isn’t as pronounced.
Why have the models consistently missed forecasted rain totals this fall into winter?
My guess is that the forcast models have not been great at accounting for the capping inversions that keep mixing ahead of the cold fronts lately. With most of the storm systems that have slid through this fall, my area has typically picked up half or less than what was forecasted. And I don’t believe my area will get much rain at all this weekend. The angle at which this next low and cold front is coming from, will likely result in that cap of dry desert mountain air from Mexico choking out any significant storms from developing yet again. Hopefully I’m wrong. Areas further to the east keep getting alot more because the atmospheric cap has less of an effect the further east you go, because of more influence directly from the gulf of Mexico. Our region would get alot more rain if we didn’t have a giant desert with mountains just to our Southwest.
You guys are wonderful and I’m so grateful for you!
The honesty of Fruitcake for Christmas: I absolutely love that!
😀
You do realize that some of the fruitcakes in circulation are over 400 years old, and have simply been re-gifted over and over.
Fruitcake is part of a small group of foods that everybody either loves, or hates. Another example is bleu cheese.
We love fruitcake… 🙂
Yes, I have fruitcake in the freezer……waaaay in the back of the freezer that startedin….oooh…prob early 90’s…
Don’t knock fruit cakes…..my Mother made the best fruitcake ever!!!!!And although on some years the outside would be slightly burnt, that made the fruitcakes taste even more delicious!
Yeah for most people fruitcakes are like the rock bands, Wire, Iggy Pop and R.E.M., you either love them or you hate them.
Also, stop apologizing for a forecast 6 days away! You guys are the BEST!
Missing from the SCW forecast was a 100% probability today of one of the TV “Weather Mommies” telling you to dress in layers, or maybe a light jacket.”
“It’s like SCW is giving you a fruitcake for Christmas!” Best laugh of my day! Thank you for your ever-present wit and sense of humor. Merry Christmas!
I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year….LOVE YOUR HUMOR
Considering I never get anything for Xmas unless I buy it myself, and that’s not happening this year, I, for one, would appreciate being gifted a SCW fruitcake!
Merry Christmas to the best weather team in the business!
“It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.”
Careful there, I like fruit cake – or at least the kind of Christmas cake we make in Britain. 🙂
I love the humor! Stocked stuffed full of uncertainty, the fruit cake, etc. 😂 This was a fun read about some “naughty” weather. See what I did there? 😅
*stocking
I’m going to be out of town for both Christmas and New Year. My handyman suggested he turn my water off incase of a hard freeze here in Sugar Land. What are the chances of that happening? I think zero but you guys are the experts, not I. Merry Christmas and thanks for your super great info every day!
Carolyn Price
Best to keep checking weather forecasts daily prior to your trip to get a better idea of needing to turn off you water is needed
Almost no chance as all the Arctic air is piled up in Siberia right now, explaining the unusually (usually for El Niño?) mild air in Canada and the Midwest. A light freeze may be possible if you live somewhat far inland, however I do advise to check forecasts and (this) newsletter daily.