In brief: Today’s post looks back at October, and explains why the weather has felt so incredibly hot in Houston this month. We also look ahead to the return of rain chances this week after a very long dry spell. And finally, we preview the arrival of substantially cooler weather during the latter half of next week.
Putting October’s record heat into context
You may have noticed that this October has felt hotter than normal, and you’re not wrong. A majority of days so far, 18, have reached a high temperature of 90 degrees or above. We have set daily highs on five days so far this month, including two extremely warm days (99 and 98 degrees) in the middle of the month before a front rolled through.
One way to assess the impact of heat is to look at three-day stretches. That is, if we take a three-day period in October, how does it rank among hottest three-day periods in October history? Well, in this case, four of the ten hottest three-day periods in October occurred during this month. The three days in the middle of the month produced absolutely unprecedented heat for this time of year.
So what caused this heat? One cannot escape the background signal of climate change when we’re setting daily high temperatures like this. But if we dig a little deeper there is more at play here. Let’s start with daily high temperatures: the average so far this month is 90.2 degrees, which is on pace to smash the previous record of 86.5 degrees set in 2016. So our days, at least during the 135 years of records we can refer to, have never been hotter. However, our average low temperature this month has been 62.5 degrees. This ranks 42nd all time. That is very far from abnormal. (Note these numbers are not final, but will not change too much before the end of the month.)
What we can derive from this data is that Houston, generally, has had a drier flow this month with a lot of easterly breezes. This has kept dewpoints down bit. Therefore we have had hot and sunny days, with cooler clear nights. Based on average temperature, this month will still end up among the five warmest Octobers of all time—the daytime highs have been that extreme—but comparatively speaking our nights have been relatively mild.
Monday
I write all of that to say the humidity is coming back this week, and you’re going to notice the southerly flow. Winds today will be from the southeast, with gusts up to 20 mph. We’ll see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the lower 70s, so it will be very muggy outside.
Tuesday
Conditions will be similar to Monday, in terms of warmth and mostly sunny skies. The only difference is that our southeasterly winds will increase, and we may see some gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon hours. So it’s really going to be blowing and going. Lows on Tuesday night may only fall into the mid-70s.
Wednesday
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some scattered rain chances return, especially for the coast, during the afternoon hours. Overall accumulations look fairly slight. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the low 70s.
Halloween
It has not rained in 70 bajillion years in Houston, and of course the first day with really health rain chances comes on an outdoor holiday. Look, I’m not complaining about the rain, since we desperately need it. But on Halloween? Anyway, the good news is that while most of the region should see some light showers on Thursday, they’re likely to fading by around sunset, when trick-or-treating begins. The daytime showers will be driven by a very weak front that should help knock high temperatures into the lower 80s. Nighttime lows remain very warm.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Highs over this period will range from about 80 to 85 degrees for the metro area, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Each say will see a modest chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 30 to 40 percent. Nights remain warm and muggy. It’s worth noting that although the region will see some welcome rain chances this week, overall accumulations will likely be 1 inch or less for most locations. That is nice, but unlikely to bust our drought.
Next week
The first part of next week should see continued warm and muggy weather, with some modest rain chances. However, there is a very strong signal that by Wednesday or Thursday we’re going to see a fairly robust cold front that should knock our temperatures back to seasonal levels, with lows in the 50s or so. This is far enough out to retain a bit of skepticism, but it does seem pretty clear that we are going to see a significant pattern change some time next week.
Please rain any day any time !
Wish our summers had nighrs like these like they (sort of) used to.
I’m not sure we ever had nights in the 60s regularly during the summer, atleast where I live along the coast. But we definitely used to drop into the mud to lower 70s on average during most summer nights. Over the past decade we have been getting much more nights in the upper 70s with an increasing frequency of lows failing to drop below 80 degrees.
More concrete equals more heat overnight.
October is the new September.
Yep, basically tack on another summer month to the tally now.
I think this October was a mix of climate change and natural variability. Next October may be the exact opposite. We could be stuck in a rainy cooler pattern next October like we were in 2018. It depends strongly on the Arctic Oscillation, ESNO, and some other factors that influence the jet stream.
The effects of climate change are possibly slowing the jet stream movements down, which keeps these blocking upper level highs over certain regions for longer periods of time. This can exacerbate hot and dry spells by making them last longer, which can make it easier to break record highs.
I think most of the warming over the last forty years or so can be attributed to the urban heat island effect. This is pretty evident in the comparison between Houston and Galveston temperatures. IAH which has grown exponentially over recent decades is currently running about 3.8 degrees above normal. Galveston which has much less concrete and is surrounded by water is only 2 degrees above normal.
The urban heat island effect is causing warming inside big cities, but rural areas are also warming up more and more over the years. Warmer ocean temperatures are also adding to the issue like warmer nights and higher dew points. This intensifies the heat index making the heat more dangerous for outdoor workers.
Apologies in advance fit my pre-coffee dumb Q, but the headline made me think we’d have more of a deep-dive explanation of the late-season heat (and drought) than easterly flow and drumbeat of climate change (which I don’t argue so let’s not start a thread on that, please). Is there something else specific locking us into this heat?! A dry pressure ridge or change in jet stream or La Nina or…? In other words, is this just likely to be our new October normal vs. an anomaly?
A dry surface high, an upper level blocking high. And a positive Arctic Oscillation are the most likely cause of the pattern we have been stuck in this October. I am confident that this is not a new normal for October. We can experience sharp variations in October. Next October will likely be a much different scenario. This was likely just an anamoly however, the circumstances that lead to anamolously warm and dry conditions will likely happen more often from here on out.
Bring on the rain and the cold weather! Felt the humidity coming back already this morning.
You know it’s bad when you go outside to go to work and you need to use the defrost in your car for the condensation. 🙁
Or you see fog in the morning and it’s 70 degrees outside.
That too. Blechhhhh.
I went to the game this past Saturday in College Station (Geaux Tigers….still) and it was, I think, the hottest I have ever been. I had heat exhaustion. This late heat is ridiculous.
I feel your pain, I was at a Cardinals – Packers game in late October a few years back before the Cardinals new stadium was built. A 2 PM game and 107 degrees at kickoff. There was not enough beer in Sun Devil Stadium for the overheated Packers fans.
I am working Elections. Carrying the voting booth to the person voting curbside has been not fun (heat)
Side Note just for you EB:
Had gentleman standing in line to vote wearing Artemis shirt. He works on instrumentation. Told him I’d been following Eric Berger as he documents the journey of the Project.
“Yeah, Eric writes about us. Alot”.
Lol
Thank you for working the election!
Boy do I get tired of the words ‘Record Heat’. It almost feels like we break records all the time. Maybe things are getting warmer…
I see spacecityweather has finally bent the knee to the climate change narrative. Unbelievable. The whole reason I started reading years ago was because you guys didn’t play into that hype. (I was even referred by an actual meteorologist). But, that was a few years ago, and now, here we are. Maybe if we pay more taxes we can stop climate change, right? Or, if we all buy electric cars and bump the thermostats up to 80? Maybe?
They have been mentioning climate change for really years on the site. It’s not hype if it’s backed by data.
Maybe if we pay more taxes we can stop climate change, right?
Have you tried pulling your head out of your butt? Does constant RECORD HIGH HEAT not mean anything to you or do you think thats fake too? Why are you even here?
Maybe if we pay more taxes we can stop climate change, right?
I don’t think Eric and Matt have really ever tried to hide their position when it comes to climate change. The science is pretty compelling…
I think they have been pretty level headed in their position and to the best of my knowledge have never advocated for increased taxation, a conversion to EV’s or adjusting the thermostat up in an effort to combat AGW.