Winter returns to Houston on Wednesday night, but the week of Christmas should be mild

In brief: The overall pattern remains the same, with a little more than one day of muggy and warm weather ahead of a cold front that will usher in much more seasonable weather. This front will bring cooler conditions for the rest of the week, and into early next week. However we’ll see a warming trend by Christmas Day next week, when conditions look to be fairly mild.

Tuesday

We’re starting out this morning with fairly widespread fog due to temperatures nearly matching dewpoints, and calm winds. It may persist for an hour or two after sunrise. After that, if you liked Monday’s weather, you’re in luck. Today will be similar, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and partly sunny skies. We’ll see a few isolated showers this afternoon, with the barest chance of a thunderstorm. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s, with partly cloudy skies. Expect the possibility of some fog again tonight and on Wednesday morning.

HRRR model forecast for 2 pm CT on Wednesday shows the potential for a broken line of showers moving into Houston ahead of the front. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

Houston will experience the same muggy pattern on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a bit uncertain still, but I expect a broken line of showers to advance into Houston from the northwest, perhaps reaching areas such as Katy and the Woodlands around noon-ish, and the coast during the late afternoon hours. Although the showers look to be hit or miss, the region will experience some fairly stiff northwesterly winds almost immediately with the front’s passage. Expect gusts up to 25 mph or so as drier air blows in. Temperatures should drop into the 50s after sunset, and most of the region away from the coast should drop into the upper 40s overnight as skies clear.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures generally in the mid-60s, and mostly light northerly winds. Thursday night should drop into the upper 40s, but Friday night looks colder with an additional surge of cooler air. Most of the region should drop to around 40 degrees, with some inland areas hitting the upper 30s.

Saturday morning looks to be the coldest of the week.

Saturday and Sunday

Mostly sunny and cooler weather continues through the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will top out at about 60 degrees, with another cold night, followed by mid-60s on Sunday, and a slightly warmer night. We have zero weather concerns about weather during the final weekend before Christmas.

The period from Christmas Day through New Years looks warm for all. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

We continue to expect to see a warming trend beginning next week, which will probably last at least through Christmas Day. There remains some uncertainty in the details, but my best guess for weather by next Wednesday is lows in the upper 50s, highs in the 70s, modest humidity, and partly sunny skies. It’s way too early to have any confidence in whether it will rain or not on the holiday, but it remains a possibility.

40 thoughts on “Winter returns to Houston on Wednesday night, but the week of Christmas should be mild”

  1. I hope the Christmas warmup isn’t as hot and muggy as yesterday…As a general rule, I don’t mind living in Houston, because we have had enough cool weather with winter to make me happy..Lows in the 50s, highs in the upper 60s or at 70 is pretty good for me…80 degrees and muggy in the middle of December is ridiculous..Warm and muggy year round, zaps the energy out of me..

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    • If we are going to have a future of winters staying in the upper 70s or 80s, I would love for cities to staff outdoor public pools year around, instead of the customary 2 1/2 months in the summer..Swimming and lounging poolside is just about the only thing I like to do outside when the temperatures climb to near 80 /muggy.

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      • City of Houston says it cannot get life guards, so few city pools open any time of the year.
        Private swim clubs cannot get lifeguards once school starts.

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    • I am pretty sure it is going to be warmer on Christmas than they are forecasting. These winter warmups in recent years are always much warmer than they predict at first. I’m predicting that it will be highs in the low 80s with lows in the low 70s or upper 60s on Christmas and probably every day for the rest of the year.

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    • Yes, Sunday and Monday’s heat was completely ridiculous! I am furious about hearing my A/C turn on and having to wear shorts/sweating during the holidays. I am starting to hate living here more and more each year. 🙁

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      • Wow, I’m guessing you are not a native. This weather is not that unusual. I’ve lived here most of my life with the exception of living in Denver for a couple of years. I guess you accept the possibility of warm weather (requiring A/C) in December are you begin your plans to relocate. I’m 65 and when I was a kid there were Christmas seasons where we wore shorts and played barefoot. You only get occasional relief from running the A/C during this month and possibly next. This is Houston. I’m sorry you’re disappointed.

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  2. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s isn’t winter in my opinion. And I’m speaking as someone who has lived in SE Texas my whole life. I consider winter for our standards to be highs in the 50s or 40s with lows in the 30s or 20s. Something we used to get far more often in the 1970s and 80s. Hell even in the 2010s we could still get actual winters. Gone are those days sadly. These longer summers and shorter “winters” are starting to take a toll on me and my plants and trees.

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  3. Our winters are a total joke now. I am so tired of these subpar mediocre winters. I wish we could have 3 months of steady cool weather like we used to. I’m tired of having a few cool days just to be replaced by summer like heat and humidity for days or weeks in between cold fronts. Winter has been narrowed down to maybe a week or two in January if we are lucky.

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    • Did you look at the map? It’s warmer than normal everywhere which is exacly what was forecast. People may not like it but the long range forcast have been spot on.

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  4. Highs in the 60’s is NOT winter especially when it lasts (maybe) two days. That is fall. Running the A/C 11 months a year is so frustrating yet more people keep moving here making it even more dense and hot. Houston is turning into such a miserable place to live (and I’m a native Houstonian)!

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    • Normal Houston Winter Highs from December 1st to around March 18th ranges from 63° Fahrenheit to 75°
      F. If memory serves correct these temperatures were measured from downtown Houston from about 1877 to 1932, from Hobby airport from about 1933 to 1969 and Bush airport from 1970 ti the present.

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  5. I grew up here and have pictures of myself in snow (granted, not that often, but still). I remember having seasons. This blows. Summer and rain are the two we have now. 🙁 Definitely not a celebratory mood.

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  6. Once we have another cold snap in Jan or Feb u guys will wish we had this mild weather. You’ll be complaining about something else by then.

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    • I won’t be complaining and it’s not a random 2 day cold snap that we want. It’s a steady 3 month period with cool days and chilly nights but not pipe bursting cold. It’s one extreme to the other now with our climate. And we have way more hot days during the winter than cold days now.

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      • You must not know where you live. It’s SE TX on the gulf coast. No such thing as 3 months of cold and cool. It swings back and forth between fronts.

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        • True, it never stayed cool or cold through the entire 3 months, but it has been warm much more often than cold through most of our recent winters minus a sharp 3 day cold snap here and there. The moral of the story is that we are having more 70 and 80-degree days during the winter in recent years than we ever did before. The winter nights have been much warmer as well. You can look it up on NOAAs NOWdata if you don’t believe me.

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  7. More people are going to start waking up to the fact that climate change is happening and happening fast. Summer is not the only season that climate change/global warming is becoming more noticeable anymore. It is becoming more apparent during all seasons across the globe not just Texas. Over the past few years they have been having summer like heatwaves in the middle of winter across Europe and Australia.

    90 degree days in December and January are coming to Houston soon mark my words.

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  8. Lol. So much revisionist history in here. I’m almost 40, lived here my entire life and remember plenty of “warm” Decembers and even Christmases. Some cold ones too. It’s almost like we live in a sub tropical climate.

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    • Please post the data for the years it was this warm on Christmas Day. I’ve gone back and looked at the historical temperatures for decades and I found maybe one since the seventies when the high was even in the 70s.

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      • The reality is that a warmer climate is a good thing. All major advances in civilization historically have taken place during warm periods. It’s not doomsday. Less famine. Less pestilence. More people outdoors getting things done. Yes the climate is warming, but that’s never been a bad thing.

        Too many people have allowed themselves to be bamboozled by the anti-fossil fuel lobby and the elitists who hate that oil companies make so much money and they can’t get to it.

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    • Once again, for the thousanth time, nobody is saying that it was never unusually warm at times decades ago. However, the unusual warmth is happening much more often now than it used to. The data clearly shows this. Our monthly average temperatures have continued to go up each decade because of this. We just obliterated our warmest December on record in 2021. Just over the past 15 years, we have had our hottest summer on record twice, our hottest winter and hottest fall on record. We have also had our hottest February, July, August, and September since 2017.

      Record highs happen far more often than record lows now. There has been an obvious trend towards a warming climate for years, but people will continue to deny what is happening in plain sight just because it was really warm on this day one time 50 years ago.

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  9. It’s warm but not “uncommon” here in SE Texas. An average temp of 59 is good for like 15th of warmest December’s in our history…

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