With a very wet pattern in place, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert through Thursday

In brief: We are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday, to account for the potential of street flooding. Much of the Houston area should pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes. This post describes what to expect, when to expect it, and explains why this is happening.

A setup for rainfall, some of it heavy

In the big picture for the coming week, the upper Texas coast will lie between two high pressure systems. As anyone who has lived in Houston for any time knows, high pressure during the height of summer means sunshine and hot temperatures. And it also means sinking air, which precludes the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Houston lies under a trough this week, between a pair of high pressure systems. (Weather Bell)

Conversely, when Houston lies beneath a trough of lower pressure—as we will this week—the opposite occurs. This environment promotes rising air, and thus all of the moisture at the surface can ascend into the atmosphere, cool and condense into clouds, and lead to showers and thunderstorms. Thus we will see a wet pattern this week, beginning on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on the daily, with heavy rain definitely possible as we are open to moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. We cannot rule out severe weather, but it seems unlikely with the heavy rains.

To account for this rainfall, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our scale (read more about our flood scale here). Generally, this means you can expect the potential for nuisance street flooding during the heaviest rains, the kind you typically see on some frontage roads or the like. However, we do not expect this to be a widely disruptive event. Overall, I expect much of the Houston area to pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Weather Bell)

As a bonus, beginning Monday, we are likely to see cooler daytime temperatures, with clouds and rain-cooled air limiting highs in the 80s. That’s a rare treat in July, and definitely a silver lining amongst the cloudy skies for the coming week. As for the humidity, well, bless your heart for expecting anything but the usual Houston steaminess in July.

What follows is not so much a daily forecast, but a guide to which days are likely to see the heaviest rains.

Sunday

Showers will be of a more scattered nature today, although areas near the coast are probably more likely to see rainfall than not. Overall conditions should not be particularly disruptive so go about your plans as usual. Have an umbrella handy this afternoon, however.

Monday and Tuesday

Both of these days will see widespread showers and thunderstorms. These should be nuisance showers for the most part, although a few storms should bring heavy rainfall. I do not recommend any outdoor plans, but in terms of traveling around Houston I don’t anticipate any major impacts.

Wednesday and Thursday

The potential for heavy rainfall looks to be highest on Wednesday through at least Thursday morning. For these days there could be some delays in getting to work, and traveling around the city. Again, we don’t anticipate major, sustained flooding. But you know how Houston thunderstorms can be. They can drop a deluge of rain in a short time, so some areas will see some fairly gnarly conditions over shorter periods of time. Basically, you’ll need to be weather aware these days.

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall in our region on Wednesday. (NOAA)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Rain chances lessen by Thursday night or so, which is why we’re presently planning to end our Stage 1 flood alert on Thursday night. But the possibility of rain is definitely not going away this weekend. Expect the rainy pattern to continue, albeit with less intensity and perhaps better odds to see some sunshine. Next week, however, does look hotter and sunnier.

A note of thanks

I want to thank Matt for covering the site all last week while I attended a family reunion in Michigan. I don’t want to brag too much, but it felt amazing to go running with temperatures of 60 degrees and low humidity. It offered a reminder that, in just a couple of months, we can look forward to some of the same here. Speaking of which, when we stepped off the plane at Hobby Airport and felt that first flush of Houston air, my family immediately knew we were home. We should come up with a word for what it’s like to experience that first taste of Houston humidity when landing here. Suggestions?

105 thoughts on “With a very wet pattern in place, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert through Thursday”

  12. I don’t have a name for the experience, but I certainly know exactly what sensation you are referring to. It just hits you in the face when you step off the plane and you instantly recognize it.

  16. Hope you had some portillo’s and spotted cow.. thanks for all that you guys do and the mosquitos say welcome home!

  18. Thank goodness for A/C! As a kid we just had fans- don’t know how we survived. Well- take that back- we definitely had the fans going when we lost electric recently and it wasn’t pleasant. Don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone. Pool floating saved me. Welcome back!

  23. Dame experience being in Denver couple weeks ago 58 degrees . Then going south to the coast.Thick air and heat. As one meteorologist said its Air you can wear.

  25. I call it the dogs kiss effect. Sometimes it feels like a kiss, sometimes it’s an unpleasant surprise, but it always is warm and wet.

  26. “Showers and thunderstorms are likely on the daily”. “Daily Showers and thunderstorms are likely” would be more correct. Welcome back to the heat. We hope to spend some mountain time soon and enjoy the cooler weather.

  32. A humidity. I remember the first time experiencing it as a six year old. I’m going with “thugish”!!! Thanks to you both for your no hype weather. Although with all the debris lining some streets I am concerned about heavy rains!!!!

  36. It sounds like the wetwall hit you in the face (the blast of hot and humid air upon exiting the airport sliding doors). I experienced for the first time 20 years ago after returning from colorado during the summer and it left such a strong impression. Ever since i use it as an indicator that I’ve just arrived back home.

  40. Stuck at LAX but finally on a flight to HOU arriving mid-morning tomorrow. Any thoughts on impact to air travel?? Ty!

  42. Since I wear glasses, I always have a clean towel on hand when the flight attendants open the door.

  45. A decade or two ago I was in Orlando in late fall and while it had been pleasant, the last day of our trip was unseasonably warm and humid in that very special, very familiar Gulf Coast way. All I could think about was a slogan that I don’t even remember what company it was for: Tastes like Texas, feels like home.

  50. I appreciate your optimism that we can look forward to your Michigan summer weather in a couple of months. In recent years we haven’t seen those daytime temperatures until mid November.

  54. I am a debris monitor here in Houston! THE PEOPLE THAT ARE PICKING UP ALL THE BROKEN LIMBS AND TREET THAT ARE PILE UP!

    HOUSTON IS HOT EVERYDAY! please appreciate your monitors and truck drivers we only do what we are told. Hand us a cold wayer, juice. Gatorade, more importantly don’t yell and be difficult! You get yo walk back into an air condoned home we don’t until after 7pm. That’s correct from 6am until 7pm ! 7 DAYS A WEEK!

    • Typos corrections:
      *Trees
      *water
      *to
      *conditioned

      I have been a monitor since the 22nd of May

  56. Re: first steps into jetway upon landing in Houston
    The hug of humidity/ Houston hug
    Welcome to Houston, where you can drink the air, and if you’re a triathlete, every outdoor stroll counts as a swim!

  58. Do you expect to raise the SCW Flood alert to 2-3 by Tuesday, or is it more realistically Wednesday ?

  64. For years when I have gotten off the occasional plane, walked up the ramp, picked up the faint mildew scent of the airport carpets, felt the impact of the warmth and moisture through my whole upper body, I have thought to myself, or commented to my partner, who does not share my love of heat or moisture, “Ah, back to the welcoming embrace of sweet Mother Houston”.

  65. Well quick report from lovely Galveston- we are having severe flooding across town. (The worst we’ve seen in a while) Our rain gauge has registered 6 inches in less than an hour. I can only assume too many of our storm drains are still not cleared from the storm? Also xfinity is back out and CenterPoint says we will have another “disruption” -_- *enter eye roll here*

  68. Not a word for it but stepping off a plane into Houston weather is like stepping into someone’s mouth

  73. A boyfriend from long ago moved to Phoenix for a job. When he came back to visit me several months later, his first words were, “Ah yes, the Land of Wet Air!”

  77. ONHIIA….”Oh, no – here it is again!”
    I did want to replace the “N” with and “S”, but kids might be reading this.

  80. Some great comments here!

    You can’t spell hot and humid without the letters HOU.

  81. The first taste of Houston humidity when exiting an airplane in Houston? It’s called Reality!

  86. I like what was said above, “sweatlag!”

    We always say we have to grow our gills back when we return to Houston.

  91. I think the right name for Houston humidity is right there in the last paragraph- “The Flush”. That’s certainly what it felt like every time I walked out of Hobby or Bush airport.

  94. When I was flying in to move here, someone asked the flight attendant what the weather was like in Houston that day. It was August.

    He said, “It’s like living inside a dog’s mouth.”

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