With the potential for heavy rain, we’re putting a Stage 1 flood alert in place for coastal areas later this week

In brief: Houston faces a couple of warm (almost hot?) days before clouds and rain chances increase to end the week. The period of Thursday night into Friday looks to be the wettest time, and there is the potential for several inches of rainfall, especially south and west of Houston. To that end we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas along and south of Interstate 10 on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday

Take a little extra time as there is a fair bit of fog this morning on roadways. It should clear out by mid-morning at the latest, leaving sunny skies. This combination of sunshine and a warm flow will allow high temperatures to spike this afternoon into the upper 80s, with some west and southwest parts of Houston likely reaching 90 degrees. This will be aided by dewpoints in the upper 50s, so while it will be quite warm, it won’t be super humid by Houston standards (that’s dewpoints in the 70s). Given the calm winds, there is also the potential for high ozone levels in the atmosphere today. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Expect a healthy chance of fog again on Wednesday morning. As moisture levels in the atmosphere increase, we’ll see more clouds on Wednesday. This should help to limit high temperatures in the mid-80s, with another warm night.

Thursday and Friday

We are continuing to watch an evolving situation with the potential for heavy rainfall to end the week. And I know many of you are as well, with the Texas Children’s Houston Open golf tournament at Memorial Park Golf Course running from Thursday through Sunday. The good news is that, I think, the weekend should be OK. But what of Thursday and Friday?

An upper-level disturbance will lift into the area beginning Thursday and find high atmospheric moisture levels to work with. This is a fairly potent system in that it has the potential to drop 6 to 10 inches of rain somewhere in Texas later this week. However, at this time the majority of our guidance now indicates that the best chance for the highest amounts will be southwest of Houston, near the Matagorda Bay area, or perhaps further south. But that does not mean the Houston area is out of the woods as uncertainty remains.

Rain chances will start to increase on Thursday, but the potential for heavy rainfall appears to be highest on Thursday night and Friday. As for our expectations in Houston, my best guess at this point is that we will see widespread accumulations between 1 and 4 inches, with higher isolated totals. The chances for higher accumulations appear to be greater closer to the coast. For that reason, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas in Houston along and south of Interstate 10 on Thursday and Friday. Please note we may continue to modify this as better data becomes available.

The bottom line is that you should prepare for the possibility of some disruptive rainfall on Thursday night and Friday, but it is by no means a certainty. Expect temperatures in the 70s, with cloudy skies when it is not raining, and plenty of humidity.

Saturday and Sunday

As the upper low lifts north of the area, rains should end on Friday night or Saturday morning, and we should be left with partly sunny skies for the weekend. Expect highs both days in the low- to mid-80s with a fair bit of humidity. So if you have outdoor activities, at this point, they look fine. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the upper 60s for most locations.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly warm and muggy as well, with highs likely in the 80s somewhere and warm nights as we get into April.