In brief: In today’s post we discuss the very heavy rainfall from Edouard that occurred overnight over East Texas. We also look ahead to a warm, but not too warm period for the Houston metro area during which we will continue to see some decent daily rain chances. (Yes, really).

The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are slowly moving to the north-northwest this morning, and rains near the center have produced significant flooding over counties to the northeast of Houston, particularly Polk and Hardin counties. Some towns north of Beaumont, including Kountze, Saratoga, and Lumberton, have received in excess of 12 inches of rainfall. Closer to Houston, locations such as Conroe, Cleveland, and Dayton have all seen several inches of rainfall.

These rains should slowly lift north today, into Walker, Trinity, and Houston (note: Houston County lies well to the north of the city of Houston) counties along with the remnants of Edouard. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible in these counties from the slow-moving system. Strong winds have also been observed near the center of the system, with gusts in the 40s recorded near Lake Livingston. But these are now fading.

Let’s take a look at the forecast for the Houston metro area.

Wednesday

Although Edouard proved a major disappointment on the rainfall front in Houston, its passage does not spell the end of our rain chances. It leaves in its wake a fair amount of atmospheric moisture, and this should produce a healthy likelihood of showers later today. Much of the area has about a 50 percent chance of rain, most likely during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Some locations may pick up as much as an inch, while other areas will miss out. Speaking of daytime heating, highs today will reach the lower 90s for most locations, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A similar pattern will persist into Labor Day weekend. We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds during this period, with most of Houston recording highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is fairly standard for this time of year. Each day is likely to have about a 50 percent chance of rain. Some of the short-range models are fairly bullish about shower chances on Thursday, but I want to see more data before I bite. By the weekend I do not expect widespread or long-lived showers, but they could still pop up at your pool or beach day.

Labor Day and beyond

If I had to guess—and I’m a meteorologist, so I guess I must—I would say that Labor Day will be a fairly sunny, low-rain chance kind of day. Expect widespread highs in the low- to mid-90s probably, so beaches and barbecues and the like will probably find favorable weather. There’s not a clear signal for what is coming later next week, but overall I do favor the return of healthy daily rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. So despite our disappointment at not seeing some rain from Edouard after a very dry August, I believe the overall pattern ahead of us favors a wetter pattern over the next 10 days.

In brief: Edouard was a bust in Houston on Tuesday with regard to rainfall, but the potential remains for it to be a potent rain-maker Tuesday night for areas north, and northeast of Houston. We discuss why flooding in these areas is possible.

If you live in Houston or its surrounding suburbs, the threat of heavy rainfall from Edouard is pretty much over. Not that the storm brought much precipitation today; rather it was a bust that only produced measurable rainfall in the vicinity of The Woodlands. A lot of us wanted more, and a lot of us are disappointed. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in the city, but most of us in the Houston metro area will probably miss out.

The same cannot be said for areas north and northeast of Houston, and I want to call attention to this threat because the center of Edouard, although it is rapidly weakening, remains capable of producing significant rainfall. The heaviest rains from the storm have now moved north of Beaumont (see radar snapshot above), and will continue to move to the west-northwest tonight.

So what does that mean? Basically if you live in Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, Walker, and Trinity counties you face the potential for heavy rainfall tonight, perhaps as much as 4 to 8 inches under the most efficient storms. Not all of these areas will see this rainfall, but the potential with a relatively slow moving storm and efficient tropical rains is definitely there for some spots to get hit.

Could some of these heavier rains sneak into Montgomery County or northeastern Harris County, in places such as Kingwood or Huffman? Possibly yes, but we think the risk is greater to the east, in a place such as Liberty, or north, such as Cleveland.

Storms that develop tonight should probably be clearing by Wednesday morning. We’ll have a full update for you then, by or before 7 am CT.

In brief: As of 2 pm CT on Tuesday Tropical Storm Edouard has begun making landfall in extreme southwestern Louisiana, not far from Port Arthur and Beaumont. Houston will not see much in the way of winds and high seas, but what about rainfall?

Just a quick update this afternoon to provide some additional information on the status of Tropical Storm Edouard, which is coming ashore near the state line between Texas and Louisiana. Although Edouard has strengthened some today, it has remained a tropical storm rather than blossoming into a hurricane.

The storm is far enough away from the Houston metro area that direct impacts in our region (as we suggested on Monday evening) are minimal. Winds may turn a bit gusty this afternoon and evening, and seas along Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula may be a foot or two higher than normal at high tide. However, when one steps outside today it will not meaningfully feel like a tropical storm in Harris or surrounding counties.

So, is it going to rain?

This leaves us with rainfall potential. Our expectations for rain were never particularly high for areas west of Interstate 45, and now I am sorry to say—because let’s face it, after a long, hot, and dry August our soils are parched—our expectations for rain in these areas is even lower. Certainly we could still see some wrap-around showers over the next 24 to 36 hours, but significant relief is not coming for most locations.

For areas along and east of I-45 there still a good chance of at least some rainfall as a band or two moves through, particularly the further east you get, i.e. Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and into Chambers County. But even so I would not hope for much more than an inch or two of rainfall, and most locations may not even get even this. The best chance of rain may well come north of the Houston metro area, along and north Highway 105 in Montgomery County, near the center tonight.

In any case, if you’ve been hoping for a good soaking from Edouard in Houston, I feel your pain. Ultimately the storm’s center just tracked too far to the east. Instead of making landfall on the Texas side of Port Arthur, it is doing so on the Louisiana side. That is going to end up pulling the most abundant moisture, and resulting rainfall, east of most Houston-area residents. Normally in this situation I’d say we should gang up and blame Matt, but he’s gone and moved to Connecticut, so I guess this one’s on me.

Our next update will come by or before 10 pm CT tonight.

In brief: Tropical Storm Edouard is nearing landfall today, and it will bring some sporty winds and heavy rainfall into the upper Texas coast. For the most part the worst of these impacts will be east and north of Houston, but we’re still eyeing the potential for heavy rainfall, especially east of Interstate 45.

As of 7 am CT Tropical Storm Edouard is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph, and is nearing the northern Gulf coast. On this track the storm will reach the coast, likely near the state line between Texas and Louisiana, around noon or shortly after today. The question is whether the storm, which still has sustained winds of 40 mph, will undergo a burst of intensification this morning, which is possible but not certain.

For most this won’t matter too much. This is because Edouard has a small wind field, and its maximum winds should fall off fairly quickly once inland. This means that areas such as Beaumont and Port Arthur could see wind gusts above 40 or 45 mph today, but in the greater Houston area we likely will only see gusts up to 25 mph or so. One exception is Chambers County, which could see gusts up to 35 or 40 mph this afternoon as Edouard moves inland. In terms of storm surge, impacts in the Houston and Galveston region will be limited. A larger storm surge, of 3 to 5 feet, is possible from High Island eastward into southwestern Louisiana.

Rainfall potential

This leaves rain as the main issue—and it really has been the main issue with this storm from the beginning. So what’s going to happen?

As of just before sunrise on Tuesday, Edouard’s showers and thunderstorms remain offshore, but they are moving closer to Texas. The thickest band of storms lies to the west of the storm’s center, so we continue to anticipate that the heaviest rains will be to the west of its landfalling location. The most probable outcome is that there is a band of heavy rainfall between Houston and Beaumont, most likely in Chambers and Liberty counties. Accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible in these areas today and tonight, with the potential for higher bullseyes.

As for Harris County and the Houston metro area, we are likely to see less rainfall, particularly for areas west of I-45. We are going to maintain a Stage 2 flood alert for locations east of I-45, but in truth most of Galveston and Harris Counties are likely to see rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches at most.

One other thing of note: The models are hinting at the development of diurnal showers tonight near the center of the storm as it moves north of Houston. Areas along, and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County could see several inches of rain tonight—locations such as Conroe or Centerville or elsewhere. It’s difficult to pinpoint precisely where, but there is definitely some inland rainfall threat far from the coast.

Tuesday

Rain chances today will depend on whether you live in the eastern (higher) or western (much lower) half of the Houston region. Regardless, mostly cloudy skies should help keep high temperatures in most locations in the upper 80s. Although we are not expecting widespread disruptions due to weather in Houston and its surrounding suburbs today, please do remain weather aware as there could still be strong thunderstorms with heavy rain that develop in localized areas. Due to wrap-around showers from the center of Edouard, as it moves inland, we could see more rains tonight.

Wednesday

This should be another mostly cloudy day, which should help to limit highs to around 90 degrees. As for rains, I think area-wide there will be a healthy 50 to 60 percent chance of showers, so if you have outdoor activities related to school or otherwise, you should prepare for the possibility of some disruptions due to passing storms.

Thursday, and Friday

Skies turn partly to (perhaps) mostly sunny to end the work week, and this should allow high temperatures to reach the lower 90s. We are still going to have a chance for showers, most likely during the afternoon hours with the sea breeze.

Labor Day Weekend

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather into the region, and high temperatures recovering into the low 90s, and for some inland areas possibly mid-90 to upper-90ss. Will it rain? We cannot rule out some showers over the weekend, but for the most part I think anything that develops will move through quickly. So at this point beach and pool activities should be good to go through the holiday weekend, with Labor Day on Monday.

Next week

We are likely to remain in a late summer pattern next week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and some slight- to modest rain chances along the sea breeze. For early September this is not bad weather, it’s pretty typical as we enter the first fall front waiting room. No firm sign of that, alas. \

Our next update will come by or before 2 pm CT today.