In brief: Heavy rain has led to a number of flood watches, warnings, and advisories near Houston today. Rain is expected to slowly wind down after sunset.

Apologies for the later than hoped for post. Eric and I have both been engaged in other obligations today.

So far today, some areas west of Houston have seen nearly 5 inches of rain, with a Harris County Flood Control gauge north of Pattison registering over 4.5 inches so far. If you’re traveling north or west of Downtown, just be advised there may be street flooding in spots.

A look at radar this evening shows torrential rain north of Kingwood, tracking north of Liberty. A second area of absolutely torrential rainfall is centered from just south of Spring through Jersey Village down to near Memorial City. Additional moderate to heavy rain continues to the west.

Over the next few hours, this rain is only going to creep east slowly. This almost certainly will not make it to the coast. So, yes, you’re shut out again down there. But across southern Montgomery, central Harris, and areas west of Harris County and northeast into Liberty County, periods of heavy rainfall will continue. The heaviest rain should begin to calm down after 7-8 PM, with showers continuing for a little while longer.

Bottom line: Heavy rain will continue for a little while longer, and street flooding is a good possibility. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but they don’t currently look to be as robust as today. Eric will update more on that for you in the morning.

In brief: Daily rain chances will remain for Houston over the next several days, but admittedly on most of those days it seems unlikely we’ll cash in. While there will be a couple opportunities for legitimate rain chances over the next 6 to 7 days, Central and West Texas may end up in a much better spot than Houston for now.

Side note: We wish the Artemis II crew a safe return, as they splash down this evening (just after 7 PM CT) off the coast of Southern California. The weather looks good.

We hear you, reader. We talk about rain chances more often than we actually seem to get them. It seems true. It feels true. And I don’t disagree. We’ve been in a shaky pattern for several months now where rain chances, especially out around days 3 to 7 look promising, only to disappoint when the bill comes due. Is it drought or a model bias? Both? I’m not totally sure. But I do know that fading the rain chances has worked more often than not lately.

Now, we did see just shy of an inch of rain yesterday near Eagle Lake at a CenterPoint gauge. But that’s way out there in Colorado County. Still, that helps (especially for farmers that are struggling with this constant battle of stress that’s been with us for a few growing seasons now). But for most of us in Houston seeking rain, it’s just been a frustrating go of it. Let’s walk through things based on what we know this morning.

Today

We will see at least isolated to scattered downpours across the area today. Many of you probably won’t see much rain, but some neighborhoods could pick up a quick inch or two. The HRRR model forecast below shows isolated pockets of heavier rain in between a lot of nothing. Don’t focus on the specific locations here, but that’s the general gist of what to expect.

Other than that, expect clouds, some sun, and highs in the lower 80s.

Saturday

Rain chances will probably favor Central Texas over East Texas on Saturday. Still, a few showers are possible west of Houston tomorrow. Highs will be a touch warmer, into the low or mid-80s.

Sunday

More substantial rain chances will creep closer on Sunday, but they may still remain primarily west of Houston. I would expect to see some sort of thunderstorm cluster or line of storms enter the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours. However, the trajectory of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and the general southwest to northeast movement of things across Texas this weekend may lead to most of the storm activity passing northwest and north of Houston. I would set my expectations low for Sunday in terms of rainfall, unless you live in College Station or perhaps Huntsville or Lake Livingston.

Those that do see rain could see hefty rain, however, as the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend. So if you hit a persistent area of rain, just be wary of some street flooding.

Monday

The pattern shifts a bit more eastward on Sunday night and Monday. We should again at least see a smattering of activity around the area, but I would once again set my expectations fairly low. Highs on Monday will be in the mid-80s with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

Houston will be caught between a building upper-level ridge in the Southeast that’s going to lead to some impressive, record warmth next week in the Eastern U.S. and a deepening trough in the West. These situations don’t typically lead to us seeing the rain we otherwise could, and it could be a situation where there are daily thunderstorms impacting West and Central Texas, while the Houston area gets the shaft. Obviously, this could change, but again, the theme today is to keep the expectations low. And maybe go wash your car. Yeah. That should do the trick.

Temperatures will remain well into the 80s next week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss how Houston is about to settle into a persistently warm and muggy pattern for at least the next week, and probably longer. We also take a look at rain chances for Friday and the weekend, which are trending down.

Sultry April nights

Our weather is about to feel more like late May than early April. Daytime temperatures for the next week, at least, won’t be too abnormally warm, generally slotting into the 80 to 85 degree range. But our nights will be anomalously warm for sure. Typically we see lows down around 60 degrees for this time of year. But after this morning, with a low of 61 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, our nights will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, climbing potentially to the lower 70s by this weekend and beyond. This is indicative of a warm onshore flow and increasing moisture levels, and indeed there will be plenty of humidity. Will there be enough moisture for widespread showers? We discuss below.

Thursday

Our winds from the east are fairly light this morning, but they will pick up this afternoon, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph. I expect some clouds, but for much of the afternoon partly to mostly sunny skies should prevail, allowing high temperatures to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. I don’t think we can entirely rule out some rain showers, but right now I would peg chances at about 10 percent, with only some fairly isolated activity. Clouds return tonight, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Expect highs of around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Overall conditions will be favorable for rainfall, but not perfect (I’m watching for some subsidence). In any case I think our region will have about a 50 percent chance of showers, with accumulations of less than 1 inch (and probably considerably less for most of us). Showers are most likely during the daytime hours, and fading during the evening and overnight hours. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see continued warm and muggy weather, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances for both days are likely on the order of 30 percent, but any rain that falls should not be in the form of sustained showers. Rather, this likely would be in the form of passing showers. Nights remain about 10 degrees above normal.

Next week

Most likely we will see a continued warm and muggy pattern next week, with temperatures perhaps rising to the mid-80s by Wednesday or Thursday. Our atmosphere will remain in a somewhat unsettled state, so we could see some increasing rain chances by the middle of the week, and possibly some severe weather. However, the bulk of this threat looks to remain to the west of us, and I cannot pin down any specific threat just yet. So it’s not something I’d be particularly concerned about right now. As for the region’s next front, I just don’t see any strong signal for that in the next 10 days. I’d very much love to be wrong about that.

In brief: In today’s post we celebrate the recent Artemis II lunar flyby, and look ahead to warmer and somewhat cloudier weather after today. Rain chances spike on Friday, but they won’t entirely go away this weekend.

Fly me to the Moon

I’m not sure I’ll ever look at the Moon the same way again. On Monday four astronauts—our friends and neighbors in Houston; Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—flew around the far side of the Moon (see images here). There they saw some incredible lunar geography (selenography in space talk), Earth setting behind the Moon, and a stunning eclipse of the Sun. I’m hoping this mission is breaking through to the broader public because this is an incredible crew, and it is delightful to see NASA daring to fly into deep space again. If we do this right, this is just the beginning of a long, sustained program to explore and settle on the lunar surface.

Wednesday

Back here on Earth, we are not going to see any eclipses, but we will see plenty of sunshine throughout the day. We are starting to see a more pronounced onshore flow, but dewpoints should hold in the 50s (read: drier air) through the afternoon before humidity shoots up later today. I expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Thursday

After today we’re going to see less sunshine for the next few days, but I don’t expect it to go away entirely. Highs on Thursday will again be in the range of 80 degrees, with a fair bit of humidity. Winds will blow from the east-southeast at about 10 mph with higher gusts. A few light showers will be possible during the daytime, but I don’t expect any real accumulations. Lows Thursday night will only drop to around 70 degrees. And that’s pretty much going to be our low temperatures for the next week, so get used to them.

Friday

This day will bring our best chance of rain for the week as an upper-level disturbance moves into the area and combines with a fairly moist atmosphere. The best chance of rain is likely to be southwest of Houston, so places like Fort Bend and southern Brazoria counties. However, I expect most of the area to see a healthy chance of rain, with much of us probably picking up between 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain through Friday night. Highs will be near 80 degrees with another muggy night.

Saturday or Sunday

I’m afraid we’re still playing the will-it or won’t-it rain game for this weekend game. A lot of our modeling indicates that the chances for showers will drop off considerably by Saturday morning, but I’m not convinced there will be enough high pressure in play to entirely shut off the spigot. I’m going to go with a 40 percent chance of showers on Saturday, and 30 percent on Sunday, and not feel great about the forecast. Regardless, I don’t anticipate heavy rainfall this weekend. Expect highs around 80 degrees with continued warm nights and partly sunny skies.

Next week

Most of next week looks to remain on the warm side, with highs in the low 80s, warm nights, and plenty of humidity. Rain chances are never going to go away, but they may be a little higher during the middle of the week as the atmosphere becomes a little more perturbed. We shall see.