In brief: In this afternoon update we talk about how the Arctic air may be arriving a little later than expected, and what that means for potentially icy roads this weekend.

Setting some expectations

Good afternoon. We are going to continue with twice-daily updates this week due to the interest in, and potential severity of, a winter storm this weekend. Before getting to that, however, I just want to note the nice amount of rainfall that fell over much of the region today. Most locations received 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain, which was above expectations. Although this won’t spell the end of our region’s drought, a little bit of rainfall goes a long way in January. And as you may have heard, we have more precipitation on the way this weekend.

I also want to take a moment to set expectations. There has been some talk comparing the upcoming Arctic blast to the extremely cold winter storm in February 2021. I just want to say we are not anticipating temperatures nearly that cold (if you recall, low temperatures across the region in 2021 ranged from about 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit). Nor is the cold expected to last as long. Although this winter storm has the potential to be impactful, it will be of shorter duration. So yes, we should all be prepared for inconveniences, but I don’t expect total bedlam this time around.

You have questions about electricity and travel. We don’t have all the answers. What I can tell you is that ERCOT expects to have ample power generation during the coldest weather on Sunday and Monday. Locally, in terms of transmission, CenterPoint says it is well prepared to respond to outages, and is testing and hardening equipment. Hopefully that is the case. With regard to travel, we don’t know much more. In terms of flights, I think getting into and out of Houston airports will be fine on Friday and Saturday, but we do have some concerns about Sunday and Monday. We’ll see.

When is this mess getting here?

The one trend we’ve observed over the last day or so is a delay in the arrival of really cold air in Houston. With the caveat that all of this could still change, I now think we will see temperatures well above freezing in Houston (and surrounding counties) for much of Saturday. I would go so far as to say, tentatively, that it should be fine to move around the region through at least 9 pm CT on Saturday, and possibly a little later.

We are probably looking at plenty of rain on Saturday, but with temperatures at least in the 40s (or warmer), it will just be rain. However by later on Saturday night, and into Sunday morning, my expectation is that temperatures will begin to freeze. This will occur initially north of Houston, in Montgomery County, and then spread south into the city and down toward the coast.

Is there going to be freezing rain in Houston?

We still don’t have answers to this question yet. There is a chance that, with the somewhat slower arrival of the coldest air, the precipitation will have exited to the east by the time freezing temperatures arrive in Houston. That is one scenario. Another is that temperatures plunge after midnight, with rain showers persisting into Sunday morning. In this case we would see freezing rain accumulations on area roadways on Sunday. Right now I don’t have high confidence in either scenario. However, I think we need to be wary of the fact that, regardless of when the rain ends, there will be moisture on roads after the rains on Saturday, and this could freeze rapidly. Bottom line: The roads on Sunday morning could be pretty messy. We cannot yet say for sure what will happen. We will probably have a better idea tomorrow.

How cold is it going to get?

Despite the delayed onset of cold air, it unfortunately is still on the way. It now appears that Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings will all bring the potential for a hard freeze. I think the coldest night will be Sunday night into Monday morning, when temperatures could drop into the upper teens in parts of Houston, and lower 20s closer to the coast. This hard freeze will necessitate care for outdoor plants, pipes, and of course pets. Please bring them inside on these extremely cold nights.

Really, Eric, do you think Houston is going to shut down due to ice?

I honestly don’t know. I want to emphasize that. But I will share what I am thinking at this moment.

I spoke above about different scenarios. The European model, of late, has been most aggressive about delaying the onset of colder temperatures. It effectively has the rain out of here by around sunrise on Sunday, and then has high temperatures getting into the upper 30s for most of the region on Sunday afternoon. In this case I’m reasonably confident that roads would be mostly dry for the hard freeze on Sunday night. In such a world it would be extremely cold, but the roads are mostly OK to drive on for most, if not all of the weekend and early next week. (The story, of course, should be vastly different north of Houston, toward Dallas; and west, toward Austin). There is also a world in which the colder air arrives earlier, before the rain departs, and we get a few tenths of an inch of ice on Houston’s roads. Then Sunday’s highs remain near freezing, and we remain ice-bound until the middle of the day on Monday. I really don’t know what will happen, but when we know more, we certainly will share that.

Our next update will be posted by 7 am CT on Thursday.

In brief: In today’s post we go in depth on the timing, and potential impacts of a winter storm this weekend. Before then we also have a widespread chance of showers today in the Houston area, with warmer conditions expected through at least Friday afternoon.

Winter storm status

Based upon the latest modeling data we are increasingly confident in a hard freeze for the majority of the Houston metro area this weekend, for all but the immediate coast. It now appears likely that Texas will see a direct shot of Arctic air, rather than a glancing blow. This means that large parts of the region will likely experience temperatures of 25 degrees, or below, on Saturday, Sunday, and possibly Monday nights. For some inland areas, such as Katy, Cypress, and The Woodlands, temperatures in the upper teens are possible. Actions to protect pipes and vegetation should be taken.

As for freezing precipitation, it remains a close call, but we think mobility impacts are increasingly likely around and within Houston. Freezing rain will be likely to the west and north of Houston, in Waller, Grimes, Montgomery and Liberty counties. I think the jury is still out on Harris County and points closer to the coast. However, by Saturday afternoon or early evening, this will be a distinct possibility and you should factor that into your travel plans around the area—i.e. have a contingency plan to remain in place. More on the timing of this below.

Note we attempted to answer some common questions about the impending freeze in a post published Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday

At sunrise this morning we have a mass of moderate showers to the northwest of the region, having just passed through College Station. These are associated with a weak (and dying) front that will sag into Houston today. Accordingly I expect light to moderate showers throughout the day in our region, although accumulations for most will be on the order of a few tenths of an inch. So expect no serious impacts. Highs will near 70 degrees for most locations, with cloudy skies, and light southerly winds. Rain chances slacken this evening, with lows tonight only dropping to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

This will be a warm and fairly muggy day, with highs likely in the low 70s. We can probably expect some fog early on Thursday, as well as a slight chance of showers throughout the day. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, but we might see a spec of sunshine during the afternoon. Lows on Thursday night will again only drop into the vicinity of 60 degrees, so more fog is possible.

Friday

This will be another warm day with a fair bit of humidity. The morning hours will likely be rain free, but we should see some scattered showers later in the day. These chances will increase on Friday evening and overnight as the front approaches. Highs on Friday will be in the range of 70 degrees, with temperatures falling sharply as the front moves through. If you’re planning to drive to the Dallas or Austin areas this weekend, I would advise you to arrive there by or before midnight on Friday evening, at which time ice could start to accumulate on streets.

Saturday

One of the big uncertainties I still have concerns the timing of the front moving into the Houston region. There is a world in which the colder air does not arrive in the city itself until midday Saturday, but I think it is more likely to move in earlier, perhaps around sunrise. We’ll see. Anyway I think air temperatures will remain above freezing throughout the daytime in the city, allowing for normal mobility despite widespread showers. For areas west and north of the city, such as Montgomery and Waller counties, freezing temperatures appear to be possible starting Saturday afternoon, so please be flexible in terms of your plans this weekend.

Whether we see freezing rain on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night depends on how quickly the cold air moves in, and how quickly the precipitation exits to the east. I think the best advice I can give you is to be prepared for the possibility of ice on roads in Houston from late Saturday afternoon onward. That does not mean it is certain, but it is distinctly possible with wet roads and falling temperatures. Lows on Saturday night will fall into the 20s, most likely, but whether that’s the low 20s or upper 20s will depend on how close you live to the coast.

Sunday

This will be a very cold day. Highs for many locations may not reach above freezing (32 degrees), or do so only briefly. My best guess is that the precipitation will exit our region some time between midnight on Saturday and noon on Sunday. Given the confluence of freezing air and moisture on roadways, I think it reasonable to expect, at a minimum, icy patches on roadways on Sunday. It could be worse, and we could have a full blown ice rink out there. But for now we can’t say for sure. The bottom line is that mobility on Sunday, even in Houston, will be a big question mark. Sunday night looks to be the coldest night of the period, with lows dropping to 20 to 25 degrees in urban parts of Houston, with cooler temperatures outside the city.

Monday

We will finally see some sunshine on Monday. I know everyone would like to know what the roads will look like on Monday, but that will depend on a lot of factors that are difficult to predict. If you’re trying to make plans for school, or work, or otherwise on Monday morning, it is definitely possible that there is some lingering ice from the weekend’s rain. It will depend on the amount of precipitation, how warm temperatures get Sunday, efforts to clear streets, and other factors I don’t feel confident in predicting. But yes, there’s the potential for impacts. With mostly sunny skies and highs in at least the upper 30s on Monday I think we can finally clear most ice impacts later in the day. Monday night will be very cold again, with temperatures likely dropping into the 20s again.

Next week

The rest of next week should see conditions moderate a little, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, or thereabouts. But the bottom line is that it will remain quite cold for the remainder of January.

Our next update will be published by 3 pm CT on Wednesday afternoon.

In brief: In this post we tackle some of the questions we’ve received from readers today, who are understandably concerned about the potential for a hard freeze and icy streets in Houston this weekend.

We are now about three days away from an Arctic front descending into Houston. We still don’t know the finer details about what to expect from this very cold airmass, but they should begin to come into better focus over the next couple of days as we get access to higher resolution forecast modeling. However, we realize that readers have a lot of questions, so we’re going to do our best to tackle some of them this afternoon.

Will Houston see freezing rain?

This is really the most important question, and it is one we cannot quite answer yet. I’m highly confident that we will see moderate to significant accumulations of freezing rain along and north of Highway 105, beginning as early as Friday night. I would not advise travel to Dallas or Austin any time after Friday afternoon, as conditions could deteriorate pretty quickly after that time. For areas well north of Houston I think sleet and possibly snow are options as well. It will be a mess on roads.

Closer to the city of Houston we are going to stay a little warmer, a little longer. At this time I don’t expect freezing temperatures to reach Harris County until Saturday morning at the earliest, and possibly not until Saturday evening. It will then be a race to see when air temperatures freeze at the surface, and when the precipitation slows or stops on Saturday. At this time I think there is a reasonable chance of freezing rain (and therefore icy streets) along and north of Interstate 10 on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. We also cannot rule out impacts further south. But where the precise line between cold rain and freezing rain falls, I just can’t say right now. Accordingly, the metro area should be prepared for icy roads this weekend, starting on Saturday in Houston. We’ll get better details on where and when in the coming days.

Should we be concerned about a hard freeze?

Yes, I think so. At this time both Sunday and Monday mornings have a chance of producing a hard freeze in Houston, with temperatures dropping below 25 degrees. Again the most likely location for this will be along and north of Interstate 10, but we can’t rule out anywhere except for the immediate coast. When temperatures drop this low we start to worry about pipes bursting. Please note that at this time we do not expect the extreme cold the region saw in February 2021, with widespread temperatures in the teens. But precautions should be taken with exposed pipes when temperatures drop into the 20s. Should you drip your faucets? We tackled this question in a post about a year ago.

Will the power go out?

We are not experts about electricity, but there are some general things we can say.

There are two areas in which power can fail. The first is in power generation, that is the natural gas plants and wind turbines and other sources of electricity. When these sources shut down unexpectedly during the February 2021 hard freeze in Texas, it led widespread outages. The second area of failure is in power distribution. That is, the poles and wires that carry power from plants to your home. It was these distribution channels that failed during Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 (i.e. trees falling into power lines).

For this upcoming winter storm we are going to see a cold air mass descend into Texas, but it will not be nearly so cold as that which the state experienced in February 2021. ERCOT forecasts ample electricity supply through the coldest period, next Monday. We think, barring catastrophe, this will be the case.

That leaves power distribution, handled locally primarily by CenterPoint Energy. I reached out to the company earlier today to ask about their concerns and plans, but did not receive a substantive response. My concern is that we see ice accumulations on tree limbs (causing them to fall on power lines), or ice on power lines that causes them to snap. Generally I think conditions in the Houston metro area will not be bad enough to cause widespread power disruptions, but that is just a guess. Again, we’re not experts. It’s my hope that the distribution companies are taking this threat seriously.

I have a flight on …

Look, I hear you on airport concerns. My wife and daughter are returning to Houston early on Monday morning, so this is something we’re watching closely. My sense is that Friday should be fine for air travel, and probably much of the day Saturday as well (for Bush Intercontinental Airport this will depend on when freezing temperatures arrive). As for Saturday evening through Monday morning, well, I just don’t know. I expect normal operations when temperatures are above freezing, which probably will be at least some of the time on Sunday, and after mid-morning on Monday. But beyond that, we just don’t know.

Our next update will be published by 7 am CT on Wednesday.

In brief: It will be warm in Houston this week until it’s not. An Arctic front will arrive on Friday night and drive temperatures down to their coldest level of the season. We are tracking the dual threats of a hard freeze this weekend as well as the potential for freezing rain and icy roads. Buckle up y’all, because it is winter storm season!

Winter storm potential

The state of Texas faces the potential for a significant winter storm this week beginning Friday evening, and lasting into much of the weekend. This will be driven by an Arctic front surging into the southern United States, bringing the coldest air of the season down into Texas. This front will also bring a decent shot of lingering precipitation, and for the northern half of Texas this will mean a mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Expect significant mobility issues in the metro areas of Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin, and possibly San Antonio.

As for Houston, the outlook is less certain. We are going to get very cold air, and almost certainly a freeze by Saturday evening. But it is not clear whether the freezing temperatures will arrive before the showers end. I think it is highly likely that areas along and north of Highway 105 (which runs from Navasota to Conroe to Cleveland) will see freezing rain on Saturday or Saturday night. But while there is clearly the potential for freezing rain further south, in the Houston metro area, we cannot yet say so for sure.

What we can tell you with confidence this morning is that travel north and west of Houston, beginning Friday evening, will start to become hazardous. There is the potential for icy roads in Houston itself on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. You also should begin to take precautions for a possible hard freeze, in which temperatures fall below 25 degrees. This is not a certainty, but it is a possibility for all but coastal areas.

Tuesday

If you prefer partly sunny skies and mild temperatures, then today is the day for you. There will be a brief window this afternoon when I think we’ll see a decent amount of sunshine, with temperatures rising into the mid- to upper 60s. Winds will be light, from the east. Lows tonight will be warmer than we’ve been experiencing, in the upper 50s.

Wednesday

A weak front will sag into the area on Wednesday and die, and this will bring us mostly cloudy skies and a healthy chance of widespread, light rain. I don’t expect serious accumulations, but many areas will likely pick up a few tenths of an inch of precipitation. Temperatures, otherwise, will be about 70 degrees with modestly humid air. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to about 60 degrees. As a result some fog will be possible early Thursday.

Thursday

This will be another mild day, with highs around 70 degrees, or perhaps a bit warmer, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a slight chance of showers. Expect another warm night, with lows only in the range of 60 degrees.

Friday

This will be our third cloudy, warm-ish day in a row, with highs likely in the low 70s. But by Friday evening the Arctic front will be dropping our way. This should support the development of some rain showers during the afternoon and overnight period. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 40s.

Saturday

This will be a cold and gray day, with a healthy chance of rainfall. Depending on how cold it is at various locations, but especially north of Interstate 10, we may start to see some freezing precipitation. I think for areas in Montgomery County and points north, air temperatures may reach freezing early on Saturday, so that’s why we have concerns about freezing rain. A more widespread freeze is likely in Houston and surrounding suburbs by Saturday afternoon or evening, and if the roads are wet they would freeze. Additionally, some light precipitation remains possible on Saturday night, and this would likely take the form of freezing rain.

The bottom line is that there is the potential for slick streets north of Houston on Friday night, and in the city itself beginning Saturday afternoon or evening. We will be watching this closely, of course, as the difference between rain and freezing rain is but a degree or two. Lows on Saturday night will probably drop into the mid- to upper-20s in Houston on Saturday night, but there remains a large dollop of uncertainty there.

Sunday

I think this will be partly sunny day, so I’m hopeful that air temperatures will climb above freezing area-wide by around noon, but I’m not confident this will be the case. It will be a cold day regardless, with highs likely in the 30s. Again we are going to have to monitor the potential for icy streets depending on how much moisture is left on roads, and whether there’s any additional light precipitation on Sunday (maybe a 10 or 20 percent chance). Lows on Sunday night will probably be similar to Saturday night, dropping into the 20s. But will it be low- mid- or upper-20s for Houston? Probably closer to the latter, but I’m not confident yet.

Monday

Temperatures should rebound a little bit by Monday, with mostly sunny skies, and reaching perhaps 40 degrees. This should end the threat of icy roads, but we cannot rule out impacts on Monday morning. Stay tuned.

Next week

There’s still some division among the various models, but most likely we will see a stretch of sunnier weather, with highs in the 40s and 50s, and lows at or above freezing. We’ll see.