In brief: In today’s post we look ahead to resplendent weather for the holiday, to be followed by brief warm-up this weekend before widespread showers and couple of shots of colder air. Parts of Houston may hit the 30s later next week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good morning, everyone. Just a relatively short post this morning due to the holiday—the Berger household has been up since 5:30 am working on smoking turkeys—but I wanted to share the latest on a fairly dynamic forecast. Fortunately we’re not looking at any serious storms, but there is a healthy chance of rain this weekend, and then conditions turn quite a bit colder next weekend. So with this post we are going to hit the high notes.

Thanksgiving Day

As we’ve been saying for awhile now, weather today will be ideal for the holiday. This morning’s low temperature of 48 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was bang-on for the normal temperature for this time of year and today’s highs in the mid- to upper-60s will be typical for this time in November (normal high, 69 degrees). When you add in sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds, we have just exceptionally fine weather for a holiday. Lows tonight will probably be a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday night. Think low-40s north of Houston, and upper 40s in Houston and further south.

Friday

This will be a transition day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will shift to come from the east-southeast, gusting up to 20 mph, or perhaps a bit higher. Lows Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see rising temperatures, into the mid-70s, along with much more humid air. I think Saturday morning will be mostly rain-free, with only some light showers as an exception. However, later in the day rain chances increase with the advance of a cold front. The best chances will occur later on Saturday evening and overnight when the front pushes through. I’m hesitant to predict accumulations, but at this time I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall, but given the overall dryness of our soils I’m not too concerned about flooding.

Sunday

This will be a chilly day, with leaden skies. Highs probably will not rise out of the upper 50s. Some rain chances will linger, but for the most part I just expect gray skies. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Next week

Monday should bring another shot of rainfall as what looks to be a reinforcing front moves in. As a result the first day of December looks to be a dreary affair, with highs perhaps topping out in the low 50s. We’ll see our lowest temperatures next week, possibly in the 30s for parts of Houston, on Tuesday, Wednesday, and/or Thursday mornings. At this point most of our available evidence points toward temperatures remaining above freezing in the metro area, but we’re going to keep an eye on things.

Have a great holiday, everyone!

Fundraiser

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the seasonal conditions for Thanksgiving, which will be followed by widespread showers this weekend. After this we will be sharply colder next week, with a slight chance of a freeze. Also, a brilliant fireball soared through the skies over Houston last night.

Fireball over Southeast Texas

Last night around 10 pm I received a couple of messages about a bright object transiting the sky above Houston. This almost certainly was a fireball, a name for a large meteor (typically a few feet across, or larger) that has an apparent magnitude of -4 or brighter. According to unconfirmed sightings at Fireball reports, this object was brighter, closer to magnitude -10, or nearly as bright as the Moon. Via the local Houston subreddit I found this video of the object, captured at 9:34 pm CT on Tuesday night from north Houston. It is quite spectacular, although I believe you have to be logged into Nextdoor to view it. Even for dedicated meteor observers, such a bright fireball would be a fairly rare sighting. Congratulations to everyone who got to witness it in real time!

Early week tornadoes

A high-end EF-1 and a low-end EF-2 tornado on Monday were confirmed from damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service northwest of Houston. The first occurred in Riata Ranch. The second was in Klein. Matt compiled a full report on what is known about these tornadoes, which were not particularly well forecast in advance.

Wednesday

Away from the coast temperatures have generally fallen into the 50s this morning. We’re starting to see some gusty winds from the north, and that’s evidence of a reinforcing front that will bring some significantly drier air into the region. As a result we are going to see gusty conditions this afternoon, up to 20 or 25 mph. With the influx of colder air, highs today are likely to max out in the upper 60s, despite sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 40s in Houston with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Winds will slacken some.

Thanksgiving Day

The holiday will dawn cold and clear, with light northeasterly winds. High temperatures will, for the most part, be in the mid-60s across the region with clear skies. Really we have zero weather concerns so please just enjoy the holiday with friends and family. Lows on Thanksgiving night will again drop into the upper 40s for many locations, although winds will shift to come from the east overnight, a harbinger of a returning onshore flow.

Friday

After a chilly start, highs on Friday will push into the upper 60s. We are going to see building clouds as atmospheric moisture levels increase. Winds from the southeast will pick up, gusting to perhaps 20 or 25 mph. This increase in moisture will lead to some slight rain chances by Friday night, but for the most part I think they’ll hold off until the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to warm up on Saturday, with highs in the 70s and a return of humidity. This will set the stage for widespread showers (although probably not any severe weather) during the day and evening. At some point on Saturday night or early Sunday, a front is going to push into the area. This will bring colder air, but not end rain chances. Sunday should see highs in the vicinity of 60 degrees during the daytime, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. Skies remain mostly cloudy. Most of us should probably pick up, roughly, 1 inch of rain through the weekend. Totals will vary widely, however.

Next week

The first half of next week looks cold, with highs in the 50s, and an ongoing chance of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday morning look to be the coldest of the forecast period, and we cannot rule out a light freeze for inland parts of the Houston area. I would say the chances are low, but non-zero. We’re going to keep an eye on it. When we flirt with a freeze, and there is lingering precipitation, the next question is whether there could be any frozen precipitation. The short answer is probably not. The longer answer is probably not because the colder air arriving by Tuesday should do so as precipitation is ending, but I would not rule anything out just yet. Temperatures appear to moderate some by the second half of next week, with highs likely in the 60s.

Fundraiser

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In brief: A high-end EF-1 and a low-end EF-2 tornado were confirmed today from damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service northwest of Houston. The first occurred in Riata Ranch. The second was in Klein. Additional damage surveys may still be done to check for other tornadoes or to fine tune these paths.

Two confirmed tornadoes

The NWS Houston office went out and did the dirty work on damage surveys from Monday’s tornadoes. They confirmed two so far. The first was a high-end EF-1 that had maximum winds of 105 mph (corrected from the above graphic) in Riata Ranch and a path length of 2.6 miles. The second was a low-end EF-2 that hit the Klein area, with maximum winds of 115 mph (corrected from the above graphic) and a path length of 3.8 miles. I believe these are the first tornadoes in Harris County since just after last Christmas.

Riata Ranch tornado

The Riata Ranch tornado touched down just after 1:20 PM on Monday. For those unfamiliar, Riata Ranch is just east of Barker Cypress Road just south of 290. A radar capture from 1:23 PM on Monday shows the tornado developing. The first touchdown point occurred in Towne Lake, just off Tuckerton west of Barker Cypress.

Following radar, you are able to see the rotation track to just west of Barker Cypress at 290 by 1:26 PM. It seems that a debris signature (TDS) becomes evident on radar between 1:26-1:29 PM, which indicates a pretty healthy tornado in progress. This occurs as the original circulation begins to broaden out crossing 290. At this point, the tornado was lifting.

Indeed, the NWS found that the tornado dissipated around 1:28 PM at 290 and Barker Cypress.

Overall, the TDS on this one was very impressive, usually only the type of TDS I’ve seen in typically stronger tornadoes. This is likely indicative of the densely populated area it struck.

Klein tornado

We got a 10-to-15-minute break before the same supercell dropped another tornado. Around 1:41 PM, a new tornado dropped just east of Cutton Road along Louetta Road.

This one did not show quite as strong a TDS as the Riata Ranch tornado, despite being a little stronger. Nuance is a thing. It didn’t take long for it to show up, however, which happened around 1:47 PM. Notably, the debris signature from the Riata Ranch tornado does not appear to have dissipated entirely around this time, but it does show up nicely.

Notably, when you’re looking at these tornadic debris signatures, remember a radar beam doesn’t go out flat. It aims up, so at this distance, about 49 miles from the HGX radar in League City/Dickinson, we’re sampling what’s occurring about 3,500 feet up. So this indicates that the tornado was lofting debris several thousand feet up in the atmosphere. Overall, this was a very impressive event for Houston. We see tornadoes rather frequently here, but not usually this strong. Of the 78 tornadoes confirmed in Harris County since 2000, only 6 have been F/EF-2 or stronger. The Klein tornado now makes seven.

In brief: Today’s post dives into the very warm Gulf waters, which have been driving this month’s anomalously warm temperatures. We also look ahead to exceptional weather for Thanksgiving and a soggy weekend. Also, I review how that ‘crazy’ long-range holiday forecast I made 12 days ago held up. Am I a turkey?

A November to remember

With less than a week to go in the month of November, the city of Houston’s average high for this month has been 80.3 degrees (normal average high for the month is 72.6 degrees). Now we are going to come down off of this a little, because after today our highs for the remainder of the months will be closer to 70 degrees than 80. But still, it’s been hot. We had 10 days in the middle of the month where every day had a high of 83 degrees, or above.

As always with climate and weather there are no simple answers, but I think one main driver of our anomalously warm November is the Gulf. For much of this month we have had a southerly flown off the water, and that has led to warmer days and nights. Let’s take a look at the current map for sea surface temperature anomaly in the Gulf, which simply means how much warmer (or cooler) the surface is than usual. Note the temperatures in the map below are depicted in Celsius, rather than Fahrenheit.

Surface temperatures right along the shelf of the Gulf, by the Texas and Louisiana coasts, are running 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. That’s really significant, and it helps explain why we’re having trouble cooling down closer to temperatures more typical of this time of year. This heat also extends below the surface. The graphic below depicts “ocean heat content,” which essentially includes measurement of surface and deeper waters in the Gulf.

Now the graphic is a little busy, but essentially the blue line represents “normal” heat content for the last decade, and the bright red line shows what’s happening this year. And the current total heat in the Gulf is higher right now than at any point over the last decade. So there is a lot of hot water out there. I’m sure there are complicated reasons for this, but it is hard to deny that this kind of heat is one consequence of a warming planet. We are finally going to cool down this week on land because the overall flow will shift to come from the north, rather than the south, keeping the warmer air over the Gulf offshore.

Tuesday

After Monday’s storms, including a couple of tornadoes, quieter conditions have prevailed across the region. Following the passage of a weak front, drier air will slowly seep into the region from the northwest today, bringing gradually falling dewpoints. However there just is not much oomph with this initial front, so most of Houston is likely to see high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees today. In contrast to our usual daytime pattern, highs will likely be a little warmer closer to the coast, whereas areas further inland remain in the upper 70s, more influenced by the front. You’ll notice the lower humidity by this afternoon, and this evening will feel mighty pleasant. Skies will be clear. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s for most.

Wednesday

A secondary push of colder and drier air, this time with more impetus behind it, arrives on Wednesday. This will lead to a day with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the neighborhood of 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty in the middle of the day, up to 20 or 25 mph as the northerly air blows in. Our humidity will drop even further, with lows on Wednesday night falling into the 40s for most locations away from the coast.

Thursday

After a chilly start, Thanksgiving will be a beautiful, sunny day with highs generally in the upper 60s and light winds. The National Weather Service, this morning, is actually forecasting a high of 68 degrees at both Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports. I’m not going to brag—as a forecaster it pays to be humble, because you’re always going to miss some shots—but remember when I made that long-term Thanksgiving forecast 12 days ago? You guessed it, I predicted a high of 68 degrees. I was wrong about the rain chances, they’re not 30 percent, they’re closer to zero. As for the partly cloudy skies predicted then, I would go with mostly sunny instead. Lows on Thursday night will be similar to Wednesday night.

Friday

The onshore flow will kick in Thursday night or Friday morning, and this will set us on a warming curve. Friday will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs around 70 degrees. Lows on Friday night will only drop into the 60s. Some slight rain chances return Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

An approaching frontal system from the west is going to bring wetter conditions this weekend. Generally, I think we can expect highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, with fairly widespread, light to moderate showers. It won’t be wall-to-wall rain, but beginning Saturday morning we’ll see healthy rain chances that persist through the weekend. At some point a front is likely to move into the area, and this likely will occur on Saturday night or Sunday morning, some time. Sunday, therefore, will probably be cooler, in the 60s, with ongoing 60 to 70 percent rain chances. At this time the weather pattern appears unlikely to support severe thunderstorms, but we shall see.

Next week

I expect rain chances to linger after this front, probably through Monday and into Tuesday, even as we see gradually falling temperatures. We should see a few colder days next week, with highs perhaps only in the 50s, and lows in the upper 30s or 40s. I don’t think a freeze is in the cards, but Houston is definitely going to feel a lot more like winter. We’ll keep a close eye on the forecast to see how it develops, and alert you if a freeze is likely.

Fundraiser

We’re into the final week of our annual fundraiser. Your support this year has been tremendous, and we really appreciate any help you can give. More information on how to donate or purchase merchandise can be found here.