In brief: Drought continues to expand across the Houston area with continued sunshine. More of that to come, but we are watching some potential for rain by late next week or around Halloweekend. Don’t alter your plans yet though, as we have a lot of questions still in front of us.

We’ve done well this week with lows generally in the 50s and some lower 60s. But we are about to change things just a bit. More 60s for lows and fewer 50s. But not much hotter during the daytime. Rain, I hardly know you.

The on again/off again relationship with drought that we’ve had for the last 4 to 5 years continues to escalate back into “going steady” mode. Drought now covers over 80 percent of the Houston region, with over 25 percent classified as severe or extreme. Do we expect rain over the next week or so?

Not really, but as Eric noted yesterday, it does appear that some kind of system is poised to impact the area around next weekend, so perhaps we will be able to ease up a little bit on the drought if that comes through. In the meantime, it’s just more of the same, really.

Today through Sunday

If it’s not wall to wall sunshine this weekend, it’ll be close. We probably stand to see some higher clouds on Sunday, but today and tomorrow look like sunscreen and ozone days. Ground ozone will be high, so air quality will be poor. Highs should be in the mid-80s today and tomorrow and lower 80s on Sunday with the clouds. Overnight lows in the 60s will be held up a bit as humidity slowly returns. Winds will be gusty at times, especially Saturday.

Early next week

Cloud cover should persist to some extent early next week with just a stray shower chance, mainly south or west of Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows should continue in the 60s.

Later next week

Obviously with Halloween next Saturday, everyone is focused on that forecast. It does still appear that some kind of system will impact us Friday or Saturday. If I had to place bets, I would probably put most of my chips on Saturday right now. That does not mean Halloween will be a washout; things could easily push through 12 hours before evening fun or even after midnight. Or the forecast could change completely We’re not good enough at this to tell you specifically 8 days in advance. However, the timeline of a system with potential for rain and thunderstorms either Friday or Saturday is the going forecast right now.

One thing to watch will be to see if the remnant moisture of what should become major Hurricane Vance this weekend can get funneled into the U.S. and hook up with this system late next week. So, yes, that could be able to produce locally decent rainfall. But could that go into interior Texas? Not make it here at all? More questions than answers right now, but let’s hope for some rain — just not around Trick or Treat time!

In brief: Given Houston’s ongoing sunny forecast, we take a trip into the future in today’s post and offer you with a way-too-early forecast for Halloween in Houston. Also, don’t sleep on our weather today: It looks absolutely lovely across the region.

An early peek at a spooky day

Halloween is now nine days away, and it is one day a year when a lot of people congregate outside during the evening hours. For the kids, it’s a mad dash for candy. For the adults, it’s a chance to see one’s neighbors. And for the mosquitoes? Well, let’s not talk about that.

So what will the weather be like this year? As always the usual caveats apply to a forecast this far out, but I am reasonably confident it will not be a cold Halloween. The high temperature will probably be between 75 and 85 degrees, with the most likely temperature around 80. Given this, I would expect lows on Halloween evening (a Saturday this year) to be in the 70s. So all in all, pretty mild.

The bigger question (and concern) is rain. After a very, very dry pattern in terms of rainfall, we are likely to see a pattern change toward the end of next week. Some models rate the best chances on Friday, others on Saturday or Sunday. But at this point I would have a solidly 50 percent chance of rain for Halloween. What I don’t know is whether rain is more likely during the morning, daytime, or evening.

So you’ll have to check the Halloween forecast Now and Later.

Thursday

Today is going to be a rather nice day. We’ll have sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-80s. We are going to experience our lowest humidity of the next 10 days this afternoon. Winds will be light, from the northeast. And then lows tonight will drop to around 55 to 60 degrees in Houston, with temperatures in the 50s for outlying areas.

Friday

This day will bring more of the same, but with slightly higher humidity and nighttime lows on Friday night a few degrees warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The sunshine party continues, with highs generally in the lower 80s. But there are some differences from the previous days. Winds on Saturday will be fairly strong from the southeast, gusting up to 20 mph or so, and this will nudge humidity levels up a bit. As a result our nighttime lows will warm into the mid-60s. And this modest onshore flow should start to bring some clouds back into the area later on Sunday.

Next week

Most of next week should bring partly cloudy skies, with highs around 80 degrees, give or take. Nights look mild, in the low- to mid-60s. I know a lot of our area desperately needs rain. There’s a chance of something happening on Tuesday, but the better rain chances probably will have to wait until Friday or Saturday of next week. If you’re wondering when the region’s next strong-ish cool front might arrive, I don’t see much chance of that before the first week of November.

In brief: Houston’s pleasant, fall-like conditions will continue at least through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and moderate humidity levels. Our clear skies will hold a boon early on Thursday, with good viewing conditions for the Orionid meteor shower.

Meteor shower viewing

The Orionid meteor shower is peaking over the next day or two, but seeing this increase in meteors is complicated by a couple of factors. Locally, the best time to see it will be on Thursday morning, from about 4 am CT and until the onset of nautical twilight. This is because the waxing gibbous Moon sets at 3:53 am, leaving nearly three hours of dark skies before they start to lighten due to the approaching sunrise. The cloud cover forecast for that time period is nearly perfect, with clear skies anticipated.

The Orionids can be one of the better meteor showers a year, with the potential for 20 or more meteors visible per hour, provided you have reasonably dark skies—which of course can be difficult in the urban core of Houston. The source of these meteors is debris from Halley’s Comet, which it leaves behind when shedding ice and dust during its periodic traverses through the inner Solar System. They get their name from the Orion constellation, from which they appear to originate.

Wednesday

Back on Earth there’s nothing too exciting happening with Houston’s weather as high pressure continues to dominate. Conditions are a little muggier this morning, but our flow becomes more northeasterly later today and that should help to push our humidity a bit lower. Expect highs today in the low- to mid-80s with sunny skies and light northeasterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out at about 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be pleasant days with highs in the low- to mid-80s, sunny skies, and lower humidity. Nights should get down to around 60 degrees, again with the upper 50s possible for inland areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 60s. Some clouds are possible later on Sunday. Rain chances remain near zero.

Next week

This overall pattern should remain in place next week, with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. We could see some slight rain chances return on Tuesday, briefly. There are potentially better rain chances from next Thursday into the weekend, but the details of that forecast are far enough into the future to be rather blurry.

In brief: It’s an 80s party, baby! Houston’s high temperatures for the foreseeable future should be in the 80s, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. It’s not cold by any means, but it represents a big change from summer heat and humidity.

High pressure during fall

In summer, in Houston, most people are generally familiar with the impacts of high pressure on weather here. We get sunshine. We get sweltering heat. And we get humidity. But what happens when high pressure establishes itself later in the year, during the middle of fall? Well, my friends, you’re about to find out.

Instead of highs in the mid- to upper-90s, we are likely to see highs in the mid-80s. And instead of lows in the upper 70s, generally, we’ll be 15 degrees or so cooler. Also, thanks to mostly northeasterly winds, we’ll see dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. This will take much of the stickiness out of the air. And I hope you like this pattern, because it is not going anywhere for quite awhile.

Tuesday

Today will be, you guessed it, sunny. Highs should reach the lower 80s this afternoon, with light northeasterly winds. There will be some showers offshore, but for now I don’t anticipate these will migrate inland. Tonight will be a little warmer, with lows only falling into the mid-60s. But this should be the exception rather than the rule for our weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

High temperatures during this period will be in the mid-80s in Houston, with sunny skies, and generally light north and northeasterly winds. This flow will continue to bring just enough dry air into the region to keep our humidity lower, and help overnight lows fall to around 60 degrees in the city. Outlying areas should see even cooler conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

We have more sunshine this weekend, although a few clouds could start to mix in on Sunday. Highs will generally be in the low- to mid-80s, with overnight temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. One thing to look for this weekend will be somewhat stronger easterly winds. These may gust up to 20 or 25 mph from the east during the afternoon hours.

Next week

Not much changes during the first few days of next week: more sunshine and 80s. At some point next week, perhaps on Thursday or Friday, we should start to see a more pronounced southerly flow. This will act to increase humidity and cloud cover and, eventually should push up our rain chances. It is too early to say anything definitive about whether it will rain on Halloween, but it is certainly a possibility at this point.