In brief: The forecast for Houston remains on track overnight, as freezing temperatures enter the western fringe of Greater Houston. We expect periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet overnight with falling temperatures and isolated thunder. Roads will likely be sloppy in spots, especially north and west of Houston. We encourage folks to heed the advice of local officials and stay off the roads tomorrow, at least until they can be evaluated and assessed.

Good evening everyone. I just want to shout out Eric for doing virtually everything himself this week, as I have been quite active with preparations for this storm. Winter storms are always challenging to forecast, and this one has been no different. But we’re almost into primetime now, so let’s look at where we stand heading into the overnight.

Temperatures

Generally, the entire Houston Metro area remains above freezing as of 10:45 this evening. Outlying areas west of the city are dropping below freezing now, particularly near Sealy, Bellville, Navasota as examples.

Temperatures will continue to drop, with the freezing line probably entering the western Metro area around 1 AM or so, the I-45 corridor north of I-10 around 3-4 AM, and the Inner Loop by 7 AM. Note that the freezing line will push farther south than it will east faster, so places like Bay City and Wharton will drop below freezing before places like Humble as an example.

Then on Sunday, expect temperatures to hold near freezing all day from Houston north and west and probably around 32 to 34 degrees south and east.

Freezing rain & sleet

The area has been in a lull this evening with sprinkles, drizzle, fog, mist, a couple showers, but nothing else really. That will change over the next few hours. Expect showers to become more numerous in the area with a period of moderate to heavy precipitation arriving in the Houston area between 1 and 6 AM. It won’t be precipitating heavily during that entire time, but there will be areas that see moderate rain and freezing rain or even moderate sleet as well.

The heaviest of the precipitation will thankfully pass to our north. However, it will be this area of rain or freezing rain or sleet that begins to cause problems on area roadways. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. I think most places are going to see around 0.10 of ice or perhaps a bit less, especially if sleet overtakes freezing rain as the dominant form of precipitation. There will likely be patches in northern Wharton, Austin, Waller, Fort Bend, western Harris, Montgomery, Walker, Grimes, and Washington Counties that see perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice. At those levels, we’ll almost certainly see very slick bridges and overpasses, as well as freeway flyovers. Surface streets will take a little longer to freeze, but I would expect patchy black ice on area roads late tonight and Sunday morning.

In addition to the precipitation, there will likely be at least a few lightning strikes overnight. With a wicked temperature inversion (temperatures warming with altitude), some of that thunder may be extra loud. I don’t think the excitable dog index gets much higher than a 2 or 3 out of 10 due to mostly isolated strikes.

The message we’ve been echoing from our local elected officials and emergency management agencies is that we strongly advise you stay off the roads overnight and on Sunday morning. Let officials check the situation out in the morning. If it’s not as bad as feared, wonderful. But if it’s a slopfest, we need to keep those roads wide open for first responders who also will need to slow down and drive carefully. Stay safe.

Other notes

Winds will be blustery on Sunday. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph creating wind chills in the teens, especially in the afternoon. I am not optimistic that we’re going to see much sunshine tomorrow. In fact, the cloud cover may linger into tomorrow night helping keep temperatures milder than forecast, likely in the mid-20s in most of the metro area. We should see the sun return by Monday afternoon. With clearer skies, it’s plausible that Tuesday morning will actually be colder than Monday in Houston, not by a ton but at least a little bit. You’ll want to maximize your cold weather protections through Tuesday.

Eric will be up early on Sunday to give you an update on the latest. Stay safe, and stay warm!

In brief: The forecast for our winter storm is coming into clearer focus this afternoon, and we now anticipate fairly widespread ice impacts on Sunday, which may extend into Monday. There is also the potential for thunderstorms (and thundersleet!) before the precipitation ends on Sunday. It’s all happening in winter storm 2026 Houston.

What to expect, and when

For this afternoon’s post we are going to break things down into what people should expect, and when. Houston will face a mix of winter-inspired threats over the next two days, everything from thundersleet—yes, it’s a real thing—to ice on roads. The bottom line is that we all need to have a little patience over the next 24 to 48 hours until Mother Nature sorts its issues out.

Tonight

We’re already seeing temperatures falling into the upper 30s north of Houston, and this downward trend will continue. Freezing temperatures will arrive in places like Katy and The Woodlands around midnight tonight, and should move into much of the rest of the metro area (barring the coast) by sunrise on Sunday. During these overnight hours cold rain will transition to freezing rain and, in some cases, sleet. There is also the potential for some thunderstorms, in which case we might get a rare thundersleet sighting, in which sleet falls during a thunderstorm. In locations where sleet falls (which is preferable to freezing rain) there will be less ice buildup on streets. In any case, when you wake up Sunday morning we’re going to see a different world.

My baseline expectation is for 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice accumulation along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. As for areas south of this, and closer to the coast, we can probably expect a trace of ice perhaps up to 0.1 inch. The bottom line is that roads will potentially be hazardous anywhere but the immediate coast. Our best advice is to plan to stay home on Sunday, and limit any travel to emergencies only. Even if you are the world’s best ice road trucker, chances are your fellow drivers are not. For good real-time information about ice on Houston’s roadways, be sure to check Houston Transtar’s road incident page.

Sunday

It will be interesting to see how high temperatures get on Sunday. Parts of the area (again, most likely locations along and south of Highway 59) will probably get above freezing for a few hours on Sunday afternoon. This, in concert with gusty northerly winds, and potentially a some patches of sunny skies, may do some work on drying out roads. But then again, maybe not. And for areas further inland I’m just not confident in ice melting at all. I mean, it could happen. But if there’s enough ice, it will take longer than an hour or two of 35 degrees to take care of it. Temperatures will plunge back below freezing by 5 or 6 pm CT on Sunday, and we’ll be in for a cold night. However, the likelihood of clouds on Sunday night may take some of the edge off of low temperatures. I expect lows to remain in the vicinity of 20 to 25 degrees in urban Houston, with areas west (i.e. Katy) and north (The Woodlands) potentially dropping into the upper teens.

Monday

We’ve had the road discussion already, but I think freeways and local streets on Monday will be a mixed bag. Coastal areas probably will be OK. Areas further inland, probably not? I’m just not sure how well, or to what extent, our regional ice treatment services will do. I could see things being passable near downtown Houston and the Texas Medical Center, but I really want to see where we are on Sunday afternoon before making a definitive call. Anyway, we start out very cold on Monday, but with sunny skies I’m hopeful that most of the region gets to highs of 35 to 40 degrees. I think this, in concert with sunshine, should do work on icy roads. But again, I’m not 100 percent confident in that. Anyway, lows on Monday night (with clear skies) could be a degree or two colder than Sunday night.

Tuesday

If you’re wondering when you can stop worrying about this deep freeze, the answer is late Tuesday morning. By then temperatures will be recovering into the 40s.

Eric, what about the next Arctic front?

Yeah, we are probably going to see another cooldown next weekend. I think there’s a decent chance of a light freeze, and although we can’t rule out a hard freeze the signal for extreme cold is not nearly so strong as it was for the current event. There is also a signal for some snow, but we’re not going to make any promises to the kids just yet.

We will have one more update today, likely late this evening, by or before 11 pm to share our latest thinking on the forecast.

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the timing for a second round of precipitation tonight, and when and where that is likely to transition over to freezing rain and sleet. Additionally, cloud cover is complicating the forecast for lows on Monday morning.

Precipitation overview

As of 6:30 am CT on Saturday we are seeing widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, moving through the region. This was entirely expected, and will drop between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain for most locations. These rains are actually rather beneficial given our region’s ongoing drought, and since temperatures today will remain above freeze there is no threat of ice from them. The main mass of these showers should exit the region to the east by around 9 am, with a few lingering showers possible later this morning and into the afternoon.

Then, later this evening, another round of showers will move in from the west, and persist sporadically overnight into Sunday morning. These will exit to the east by mid-morning on Sunday. This second round of precipitation could drop 0.5 to 1.0 inch of water. Now, the question is if and when this rain on Saturday night and Sunday morning transitions over to freezing rain.

For areas along and north of Highway 105, which includes places such as College Station, Navasota, Conroe, and other locations, this transition could occur as early as 7 pm and 10 pm on Saturday evening. A little closer to the Houston metro area, for places such as Katy and The Woodlands, this transition (should it occur) will happen a little later, perhaps between 10 pm Saturday and 2 am on Sunday. Then, after midnight, we are likely to see a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet in central areas such as Sugar Land, urban Houston, Kingwood, and so on; basically areas along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. For areas closer to the coast is is possible this line of freezing rain/sleet transition continues, or it may remain just warm enough to preclude the formation of freezing precipitation.

In any case, when you wake up on Sunday morning, you will want to pay very close attention to road surfaces. For central and northern Houston there is a reasonable likelihood of a light sheen of ice, which will make driving hazardous.

Sunday

Most of the area will start out on Sunday with temperatures around freezing, perhaps a degree or two below or above. One important question is whether air temperatures rise much. I’m starting to think the answer is probably not, because skies are now likely to remain mostly cloudy during the daytime. It is therefore possible that any ice that has accumulated on roads (which again, is likely to have occurred in many locations along and north of Highway 59, and possibly further south) will stick throughout the day. However if temperatures do rise above freezing some of this ice may melt, especially with the aid of northerly winds to dry roads. Speaking of those winds, they will represent the full surge of Arctic air moving in, likely gusting up to 25 or 30 mph on Sunday afternoon. This means it will be very cold outside, even during the daytime. Temperatures on Sunday night will be tricky, because if clouds linger it will provide some limited “insulation.” Accordingly I think low temperatures in Houston will likely fall into the 20 to 25 degrees range, with upper teens to lower 20s possible to the west (Katy and beyond) and north (Spring and Kingwood) and beyond.

Monday

Ok, so will there be ice on the roads on Monday? Will the airports be effectively shut down? Will you have to go to work or school? This is the question everyone wants answered, and I don’t have anything definitive for you (except for some schools that have already shut down). I think, for at least parts of the Houston metro area, there will be ice issues on roads. It may be regional. For example, Bush Intercontinental Airport might be iced in (such that workers cannot get there) whereas Hobby Airport has more passable roads. But honestly, we could see any scenario from very limited ice impacts (excepting elevated roads and bridges) across Houston to pretty widespread impacts on Monday morning. We probably won’t have a definitive answer on this until Sunday, when we see how much ice has accumulated, and what temperatures that afternoon do. I know, I know, that’s not particularly helpful.

We do expect the return of sunshine on Monday, which is great because it should allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the 35 to 40 degree range, helping to clear roads in most locations, hopefully even our far northern areas along Highway 105. We’ll see about that. The downside of the clearing skies is that they will bring another very cold night into the city, with temperatures likely on par with Sunday night. So a hard freeze for many, if not most locations.

The rest of next week

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week should be comfortably in the upper 40s and then early 50s for daytime temperatures. We still might see some light freezes, but nothing too concerning after this weekend’s mess. We should see a decent amount of sunshine. There is the potential for another Arctic front next weekend, but at this time I’m not sure Houston will see a direct shot of the coldest air. So I’m hopeful that we won’t see temperatures drop significantly below freezing. However, we’re not ruling anything out, including the possibility of a wintry mix remix. For now there’s way too many unknowns to say anything intelligent about such a forecast, however.

Saturday Q&A

I’m going to do another Q&A with readers on Facebook at 11 am CT today, so bring your most difficult weather questions and I’ll do my best to answer them. We will once again share the most commonly asked questions here, along with the answers, in a follow-up post.

Our next full update after this will be published around 3 pm this afternoon.