In brief: A quiet weekend looks to be in store for Houston with standard early summer hot weather and minimal rain chances. Things do turn more active again next week with building rain chances after Tuesday.

The topline here is that things look pretty good this weekend for Houston! As Eric noted yesterday, we’re definitely in the early summer phase of things, and with the calendar flipping to June on Monday, that will track. Some good news today: The U.S. Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and shows virtually the entire Houston area completely out of drought now.

As far as I can tell, this is the first time we’ve been this drought-free in the area since late September. It’s been a long while. Even in Corpus Christi, the reservoir levels in that area are as high as they’ve been since last September also.

Although the weekend looks fine, there are some signs we aren’t quite done with rainy weather entirely.

Today and the weekend

I’m not going to promise this weekend will be completely dry. It is almost June after all, and it’s tough to completely void the area of an afternoon downpour in spots. But any showers would be quite random and isolated. Aside from that, it looks fine. Highs will be near 90 or so, maybe in the low-90s in some spots. Mornings should be nice with lows in the 70s.

Monday

We could see a few additional showers in the area on Monday afternoon. But still, the majority of the region looks fairly quiet. More low-90s for highs and mid-70s for lows.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Coverage of rain and thunderstorms should increase to at least “scattered” levels for the middle of the week. Unlike this past week and weekend’s rains, the setup next week looks to favor activity moving off the Gulf or out of Louisiana initially. We could see some gusty thunderstorms with that, along with locally heavy downpours. I doubt we’ll see any of the 3 AM wakeup call stuff like we’ve had this week. Which, great, because we need sleep.

As a sidebar: There is no real serious tropical system risk in the Gulf right now for next week or the week after. The GFS model is often shown this time of year, but it has a very well known, systemic bias of constantly overforecasting tropical storms and hurricanes in May and June. So it can be safely disregarded. That said, it’s not out of the question that a weak, sloppy system forms in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. Here in Texas, our rain may fall hard at times, but it should not tied to anything tropical.

Later next week

We may flip the flow in the atmosphere later next week, which means storms could form in Central and West Texas and work their way east more like we saw this week. Or we’ll just end up with scattered rain and thunderstorms each day. It’s too soon to speculate on anything specific, as you know how that goes even 24 to 36 hours out sometimes. Whatever the case, it looks unsettled. Highs should back down into the 80s. But we’ll of course need to watch for localized flooding if the rain comes in higher doses. Consult your meteorologist next week to see if rainfall is right for you.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the region’s slide into summer starting this weekend. However, we are hopeful that Houston will spend an extended period in “early” summer rather than jumping directly into really hot conditions this year. Take the win, y’all!

Phases of summer

If we’re being real, all of summer in Houston is fairly hot and fairly humid. There is no escaping that in a city (located at 29.7 degrees north) that lies not all that far from the tropics and near a large body of warm water. But longtime residents will appreciate that there are different gradations of summer in Houston, which range from somewhat tolerable to utterly miserable. Understanding these different phases may help readers endure the long slog of summer in Houston, which typically runs from late May into mid-October, or nearly five months.

Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with some regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front.
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse.
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

The longer Houston can remain in “Early summer” the better. For example, last year Houston hopped right into Mid-summer in the first week of June, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and even one day with a high of 97 degrees. This year I’m happy to report that we appear likely to ease into summer with a sustained phase of “Early summer.” At this time year, friends, you have to take the small wins in Houston weather where you can. Because in June, July, and August there are very, very few big wins.

Thursday

Conditions are reasonably cool this morning for late May, with lows in the upper 60s across most of the region. We are now going to begin a warming trend, however. Highs today will climb into the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies. Winds, also, will be fairly light, from the northwest at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, likely in the lower 70s for most of the region.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow will return with a little more oomph this weekend, and with Houston on the edge of a high pressure system we are likely to see mostly sunny skies. We can probably expect daily highs around 90 degrees, perhaps a shade warmer for inland areas, and a bit cooler near the coast. Dewpoints in the lower 70s are by no means ‘comfortable,’ but they’re still notably lower than we’re likely to see later this summer. This weekend really is the definition of “Early summer,” so as we slide into June take it for what it is. Rain chances are near zero this weekend—we could see a stray shower here or there, but probably not.

Next week

Our temperatures will remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of next week. By Tuesday or Wednesday we start to see a few more clouds and there will be a daily chance for some showers. Said chances won’t be too high, nor do rain accumulations look too serious. But showers could take a degree or two off daily highs. Houston’s weather, dare we say it, looks mild as we get into the first week of June?

In brief: A bowing line of thunderstorms moved through the Houston region early on Wednesday, but we think this is our final serious disturbance for awhile. Roads should be fine for the morning commute. Our weather turns warmer, and sunnier to start the weekend.

Wednesday morning wombo combo

I don’t know about you, but I’ve been awake since the wee hours of this morning thanks to a line of strong thunderstorms, some of which were severe. I’m not sure if it was the wind, the thunder and lightning, or the heavy rainfall, but following yet another round of storms this morning I found it difficult to fall back asleep. Most of the region picked up between 1 and 2 inches overnight, with additional light to moderate rain expected to keep falling for a few more hours this morning.

If you’re like me and you’re tired of being woken up by bowing lines of storms making a lot of noise, you’re in luck. After this morning our overall pattern should turn fairly calm. That’s not to say we may not see some additional showers in the coming days, but we’re very unlikely to see these kinds of storms for at least the next week, if not longer. In fact our pattern is starting to look very much like summer lite in Houston, which makes sense as June starts in a few days.

Wednesday

We are seeing light showers across much of Houston this morning, but the main line of storms has already progressed into Louisiana. To our south there is another complex of storms advancing to the northeast. My best guess is that this will weaken over the next few hours, but we could see some additional rain into the early afternoon hours, and I suppose a few additional thunderstorms are possible. We should start to see some clearing skies later this afternoon, but high temperatures will probably hold in the lower 80s. Today’s forecast high may be our “coolest” daytime temperature until October, even if it is rather humid. A few scattered showers are possible tonight, with lows dropping to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

This has the look of a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s. There is perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of showers. Winds appear to be light, from the east. Lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer, in the mid-70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We will enter a warmer pattern over the weekend, with daytime highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, and overnight lows in the mid-70s. Skies on Friday will be mostly sunny, but by Saturday and Sunday there could be a few more clouds in the mix. Winds will generally be the from the south, and not too active, likely peaking at 10 mph during the afternoon hours. A chance of rain returns on Sunday afternoon or evening, but from this vantage point the overall likelihood of precipitation appears fairly low.

Next week

Better rain chances return Monday and Tuesday, but I’m not anticipating anything serious. Temperatures remain around 90 degrees, although there’s a chance we see some slightly drier air move in during the middle of the week. Could we squeeze out one or two nights in the 60s? Probably not, given the time of year, but there’s at least a puncher’s chance.

In brief: Following a splendid Memorial Day in Houston, we are going to see the brief return of potentially heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Note that these storms may hit during the morning commute. The weekend looks warmer, and mostly rain-free.

Look back at last week

Before we look ahead, I wanted to briefly review our rainfall totals last week, from Sunday morning to Sunday morning. Most areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 picked up 3 to 6 inches of rainfall whereas inland areas were more in line with 2 to 4 inches. For much of the region (excluding areas south of the region) the bulk of these rains came on Saturday, when there was flash flooding.

These rains were largely beneficial for most areas. As the Houston region enters the hottest part of the year, with the highest Sun angle, our soils are largely drought-free. It is a great position to be. You may also note on the map above that areas south of Houston, along Coastal Bend, also received healthy rainfall totals last week. This has had a beneficial impact on one of the two main reservoirs that provide water for Corpus Christi. Although Choke Canyon has largely been unimpacted, Lake Corpus Christi is now 14.7 percent full, an increase from 8.7 percent full a month ago. This will provide the region a little more time to sort out its severe water shortage issues.

Tuesday

If you enjoyed Memorial Day—and it ended up being a rather nice holiday for outdoor, sunny activities—today should be similar. High temperatures will push into the upper-80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at about 10 mph with slightly higher gusts. Rain chances are low, perhaps 10 to 20 percent. Rain chances increase tonight, especially after midnight.

Wednesday

An atmospheric disturbance will move into the region overnight on Tuesday from the west, and likely push an area of storms through the region early on Wednesday. At this point I think the best chance for widespread showers will occur between 4 am and noon on Wednesday in Houston. Flooding is possible, of course, but for most of the region accumulations look to be between 1 and 2 inches. This should be manageable, but definitely worth monitoring given that these showers and thunderstorms are likely to move through during the morning commute. Highs on Wednesday will likely top out at about 80 degrees, with lower rain chances likely during the afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday

We can expect some lingering showers on Thursday, but coverage and amounts should be significantly less than on Wednesday. Skies will turn partly sunny and highs likely will push back into the upper 80s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We probably will see high temperatures rise to about 90 degrees beginning on Friday, and lasting through the weekend. This is on par for this time of year. Skies look to be mostly sunny on Friday, with partly sunny conditions on Saturday and Sunday. With dewpoints in the low- to mid-70s we’re getting there in terms of summer-time humidity in Houston, but just know it can get worse than this. (And it will, hah). Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. Some rain chances return later on Sunday, although they look iffy to me at this point.

Next week

Rain chances rise to start next week, and there is some evidence that a weak front may approach Houston. Anyone betting on a cool front in June is probably a fool, so I’m offering no guarantees here. But there is a chance that some slightly cooler and drier air arrives later next week. If so, it would definitely be a bonus. We’ll see.