In brief: In today’s post we take stock of the good news, and the bad news about Houston’s weather so far this summer. Also, we look ahead to a blazing hot week. And we do mean blazing. Stay cool, y’all!

First, the good news

There are many ways of defining summer. Meteorologically, it lasts from June 1 through August 31. Practically, in Houston, it runs from mid-May through September. However what’s clear is that we are now a little more than half-way through summer. Plausibly, we are as little as six to eight weeks away from the first cool front of fall.

To date this summer has not been extraordinarily hot; rather we have been pretty much spot-on with normal temperatures for June and most of July. And finally, the greater Houston area (and much of the state of Texas) are drought free. This is often the season when droughts are typically blooming, but not this year. So all in all, so far this summer, we are doing pretty well.

Now, the bad news

I started this post with some positivity because, for most people, we are about to begin the grimmest time of year. August, the region’s hottest month, is days away. The next two weeks are, historically, the very warmest period for the city. And we are expected to have warmer than normal temperatures for at least the next week. So yeah, prepare to sweat.

The other thing is that we are nearing the height of hurricane season. For Texas, the peak lasts from mid-August through late September. So it is about time to buckle up. Crazily, the first two named storms of the season—Arthur and Bertha—both passed over the greater Houston area. Neither had super significant effects locally, but both were rainmakers for some parts of Texas and Louisiana. I have to tell you, we don’t want named storms hitting near us in August or September, when stronger storms are likely. Fortunately the next week or two, at least, things look quiet in the Gulf.

Finally, a word of thanks

I rely on a lot of people here at Space City Weather. We also have a great, long-term partner in Reliant who helps us keep the lights on. But most important of all is Matt Lanza, who stepped in last week to handle the site while I was on vacation, and wound up covering a low-end tropical storm. I take one week a year fully off from the site to recharge, and it happened to be last week. Thankfully we all survived and I’m back and in the saddle, ready for whatever the coming weeks will bring. Hopefully nothing of consequence!

Monday through Friday

This week is going to be downright hot. The reason? High pressure is in place, and at least through the work week it’s not going anywhere. For much of Houston that will mean high temperatures in the vicinity of 100 degrees, with overnight lows only falling to around 80 degrees. Coastal areas will see daytime highs a few degrees cooler. In terms of humidity, you guessed it, days and nights will be sticky. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances will be near zero. And that, my friends, is pretty much all there is to say about this week’s forecast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Is the high pressure system going to move away? Most of our best medium-range models indicate that there is a chance of change this weekend. Highs may drop a few degrees, and rain chances may rise to the 30 percent range (or higher). Next week also looks slightly cooler, but perhaps that’s only because the coming week looks so dang hot.

In brief: Today we discuss a bit about yesterday’s wider spread rain than expected in parts of the Houston area. A few additional storms are possible today before the heat parks itself back over Houston for much of next week.

Bertha recap

In terms of wind, Bertha was a nothingburger in Houston, as expected. In fact, I don’t believe any coastal location gusted much above 35 mph yesterday. In terms of rain, Bertha did overachieve in a chunk of the Houston area.

In Missouri City, several locations right along 90A picked up over 5 inches of rain which led to some rapid onset flash flooding. That extended back into Sugar Land as well. Meyerland saw about 3 inches of rain. Downtown Houston saw about 0.75″ of rain. In hindsight, while we mentioned that brief torrential rain was likely in spots yesterday afternoon, a Stage 1 flood alert probably would have worked best. It seemed as if the heaviest downpours would move fast enough to avoid that. Instead, everything congealed over Houston for a couple hours, and we got the above. While the tropical storm aspect of Bertha mostly did what was expected, the rain part remains a challenge.

Bertha’s remnants are passing southwest of San Antonio today, and they will continue through Mexico today and this weekend.

Today

A few showers or a thunderstorm are likely today across the area, with some onshore flow trailing Bertha. Atmospheric moisture levels are still pretty high, though decreasing. Still, that could mean again some locally heavy downpours this afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs in the mid-90s with sun and clouds.

Weekend

Saturday looks dry and hot with mid to upper 90s. Sunday should be similar, but there will be a slight tick up in available moisture for a few showers. So don’t be shocked to see that happen in a few spots.

Next week

Temperatures are going to surge once again next week back to near 100 degrees. Wednesday or Thursday should be the peak day, with highs around 101 to 103 in Houston. Rain chances will be shelved for the most part through Wednesday, but a backdoor front, sort of like what we saw on this past Wednesday evening could try to sneak through and provide a chance of storms either Thursday or Friday evening.

Slightly “less hot” weather is likely after Wednesday or Thursday, but we’ll watch trends through the weekend and update you on Monday.

In brief: Watch for areas of flash flooding over the next few hours as Bertha’s downpours press through the Houston region. Stage 1 or low-end 2 type flooding is expected in the impacted areas.

A flash flood warning is posted for portions of southwest Harris and Fort Bend County until 9 PM, as some bands of torrential downpours have pushed through the area. They are very slowly drifting north and west, but have dumped as much as 4 inches of rain over Missouri City in the last couple hours.

I would expect the flood advisory to eventually be expanded north and west as heavy downpours impact other parts of Harris and Fort Bend Counties, and another flash flood warning can’t be ruled out either. Watch for areas of street flooding over the next few hours, especially west of I-45. We should see storms and downpours peak over the next 2 to 3 hours and settle back down after 9 to 10 PM or so. Again, the core of the heaviest rain may slowly lift north and west, which should hopefully keep flooding from going beyond Stage 1 or perhaps low-end 2 in those areas.

Bertha itself has made landfall east of Houston and will continue off to the west or west southwest through the night and tomorrow.

In brief: Tropical Storm Bertha will pass through Houston today with a chance of a few gusty, heavy downpours and some steadier rain well south of Houston or on the immediate coast. Overall impacts are expected to be minimal. The heat backs off some today before revving back up later this weekend and next week.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha is holding steady this morning, which is to say it remains mostly a steadily moving rainstorm.

You can see that the center of Bertha is hugging the Louisiana coast, while virtually all the storminess is displaced to the south and southwest well offshore. Bertha is not healthy but it’s a pretty blobby storm. Over the next 12 to 18 hours, the surface center of Bertha will move toward the Upper Texas coast, while the bulk of the rain moves toward Matagorda Bay and south or just falls over the open waters of the Gulf.

Bertha will make landfall again in Texas, likely no stronger than it currently is, with maximum winds over water of 45 mph and likely a good bit less than that over land.

Impacts in the Houston area? We’ll see scattered gusty thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, somewhat like we saw yesterday (a handful of CenterPoint weather sensors exceeded 60 mph near the Bay and Gulf). Any of those storms could briefly produce torrential rain and localized wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (most people will not see that). In addition, some breezy conditions will occur on Galveston Island down through Freeport, with a few gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. Tides will be slightly elevated and there could be some run up on beaches, though coastal flooding is expected to be very minor. Basically, this should be like any modest coastal storm we see throughout the year.

Rain totals should not require even a Stage 1 flood alert on our flood scale today, but again just be aware that it could start pouring out of the blue at some point today.

On the positive side, cloud cover should hold temperatures down some after yesterday’s heat.

Today and Friday

We hit 102 degrees at both Bush and Hobby yesterday. (For those monitoring how close IAH is to reality, a CenterPoint sensor placed near the airport also measured 102 degrees). We will…not hit 102 degrees today. Look for highs back in the mid-90s today, especially north and west and upper 80s to low-90s south and east, closer to Bertha’s cloud deck.

Tomorrow should be a little hotter with Bertha passing inland to our southwest and declining. Look for mostly low to mid-90s.

Weekend

Saturday should be dry. Sunday should be dry for most too, though an isolated downpour can’t be ruled out. Temperatures inch upward here, back into the mid to upper-90s on Sunday.

Next week

Up, up, up we go again. We should be back to near 100 on Monday or Tuesday. Temps may exceed 100 on Wednesday or Thursday before sliding back some next weekend. But it appears another good heat wave is coming next week. Rain chances may remain minimal through Friday.