In brief: In today’s post we discuss a very strong ridge of high pressure that is establishing itself across the Western United States, and what that means for Houston’s weather across the next 10 days.

Rocky Mountain High

Houston’s weather, and that for much of the Western United States, will be dominated by a large and persistent pattern of high pressure for the next week or 10 days. Although it is still early spring by the calendar, this high pressure system will be more characteristic of summertime, bringing intense heat across California and the Desert Southwest, with some locations there certain to break records for earliest 100-degree heat.

Here in Houston we will be on the periphery of this high pressure system, but still feel its effects. Beginning Friday, and lasting at least a week, we are likely to see mostly sunny skies and warm days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Along with this, rain chances will be near zero throughout the forecast period. The bottom line is that, beginning Friday, every day will be very much like the next.

Wednesday

It has not warmed up yet, however. Low temperatures this morning, away from the coast, are generally in the 40s. However, with mild southerly winds we are going to warm up nicely today, into the mid-70s. Skies will be sunny with relatively low humidity levels. Honestly, it should be a gorgeous day.

Houston rodeo weather

It’s Family Wednesday at the rodeo, and conditions look excellent. Temperatures late this afternoon will be in the lower 70s, falling to the lower 60s after the show. Winds may be a bit gusty early this this evening (perhaps up to 15 to 20 mph) so it may be a bit chilly in the shade. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-50s tonight, which is warmer than we’ve been, but cooler than we’ll be for awhile.

Thursday

This will be a sunny day with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows on Thursday night have a chance to drop into the upper 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Expect sunny and warm weather with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Sunday looks like the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees for some far inland areas. Nighttime temperatures will generally be in the 60s. Humidity levels will be rising, but not oppressive like they can be during the summer.

Next week

Sunny and warm conditions will persist for much of next week, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, and hopefully may bring us some rain showers. But no promises on that score, I’m afraid.

In brief: Temperatures this morning are reaching within a few degrees of record lows for the greater Houston area, with some rural areas experiencing a light freeze. Most of the city has remained just above freezing, however. Today we’ll begin a warming trend that won’t end for some time.

Coldest night competition

The official low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport is likely to bottom out at 33 degrees (the record low is 30 degrees, set in 1900), but whatever the official low ends up being temperatures this morning are likely to be Houston’s coldest for many months. Following a warming trend this week the rest of March looks rather warm, and then we’re in to April. So let’s have a competition. When will Houston’s temperature be this cold again? Leave your guess in the comments below and whoever is closest will win either a free Space City Weather t-shirt or a signed copy of Reentry. (Note: The official low did end up being 33 degrees).

Tuesday

St. Patrick’s Day will feel rather chilly to start, but at least those strong northerly winds have finally died down. Conditions are mostly calm this morning, and even this afternoon winds should only be 5 to 10 mph. But you will note they’re going to start shifting to come from the south, indicating the beginnings of a southerly flow. Anyway, with the help of sunny skies we should see high temperatures climb to around 60 degrees today, or a little warmer.

Houston rodeo forecast

If you’re headed out to the show today you can expect plenty of sunny skies and dry air. Winds will be light this evening, topping out at perhaps 10 mph. Temperatures this evening will be in the mid- to upper 50s, falling to the lower 50s after the show. With clear skies tonight, expect overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s for urban Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas, away from the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be sunny days with a continued warming trend. Expect highs in the mid-70s on Wednesday, followed by around 80 degrees on Thursday. Overnight lows will warm as well, first into the 50s, and then perhaps around 60 degrees. Humidity levels will start to climb, but the air should still feel fairly pleasant throughout this period.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks rather warm and sunny as a persistent ridge of high pressure asserts control of our weather. We can expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, with some areas possibly reaching 90 degrees, along with moderately humid air. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the mid-60s. The only real hazard I would caution against is the Sun, as it is getting a lot higher in the sky compared to where we were during the winter months. It is now reaches the same height in the sky as in September, so if you’re going to be outside for a prolonged period of time please protect your skin.

Next week

Our very much warmer-than-normal weather should persist at least through the middle of next week, with ongoing highs in the mid-80s and lows probably in the 60s for the most part. There may be some sort of front, along with decent rain chances, by Thursday or Friday of next week but I can make no promises on that account.

In brief: In today’s post we look at windy conditions over night, in which large chunks of the region saw gusts of 45 to 55 mph. This is leading to very chilly conditions this morning, and we’ll only warm up a little bit today. Temperatures tonight will get into the 30s for much of the area, but should remain above freezing.

Windy conditions

In the wake of Sunday evening’s cold front a river of winds in the atmosphere has, essentially, dipped down to ground level. This has brought very windy conditions across the region overnight. Much of the area has experienced gusts of 45 to 55 mph, with even higher ones along the coast. At 3:52 am this morning, for example, Galveston recorded sustained winds of 43 mph, and a gust of 58 mph. Those are tropical-storm force winds. Winds will die down slightly over the next few hours, but we will continue to see a very blustery day, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible until later this afternoon when things finally settle down for awhile.

Monday

Although cold temperatures trailed the wind, much colder air did begin to make serious progress into the region after midnight. Air temperatures this morning range from the low 40s north of Houston to upper 40s in the city, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast. But when you tack winds on, temperatures feel like they’re in the 30s across the area, so very chilly out there. Highs won’t climb much today despite the sunny skies. Most of us won’t get higher than the mid-50s this afternoon. So far the winds have had a negligible impact on power outages.

Houston rodeo weather

Although winds will fall off this afternoon and early evening, they’re not going away. We should still see some gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range before tonight’s show. Air temperatures before the show will be about 50 degrees, falling to the upper 40s afterward. So with the wind chill it will be quite brisk outside. Winds should finally die off by or before midnight tonight. Lows in Houston will bottom out at about 40 degrees in the urban core of Houston, with much of the outlying area falling into the mid- to upper-30s tonight.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny day with high temperatures in the low 60s. I feel pretty confident in saying this is likely to be Houston’s coldest daytime temperature until at least October, or possibly even November. So really, Monday and Tuesday are probably our last “winter-like” days in Houston until next winter. Winds will be almost entirely gone, but importantly they will subtly shift from the northeast to southeast, which will eventually bring us much warmer weather. Lows on Tuesday night should fall into the upper 40s in Houston.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Sunshine will prevail for the rest of the week as we see a warming trend from highs in the mid-70s on Wednesday to the mid-80s on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Humidity comes back but it should not be oppressive.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and hot, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some inland locations might even flirt with 90 degrees—quite the turnaround from this morning. Rain chances are nil.

Next week

The first half of next week should see continued, rather hot weather for March. The pattern may change by the middle of next week (or not!) with an increase in rain chances and possibly a front. Although I must say this is far enough into the future that my overall confidence is rather low. But by then we’ll definitely be back in the “We could sure use some rain” camp.

In brief: We’re interrupting your Sunday morning to bring an updated forecast for the arrival time of a strong cold front this evening. Not much has changed since our forecast on Friday, but we want people to be aware of what is coming in terms of wind.

What to expect and when to expect it

Today will be a warm one, with high temperatures in the mid-80s, partly to mostly sunny skies, and a decent amount of humidity. Yes, it’s a little warm for March, but otherwise nothing out of the ordinary. However a fast-moving front this evening will bring a rapid change.

In terms of timing, I expect the front to probably reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands between 5 and 7 pm CT, central Houston, including Sugar Land and Baytown, between 6 and 8 pm, and Galveston by 7 to 9 pm this evening. There will be a brief possibility of showers and thunderstorms (there is a slight chance of some of these becoming severe, but for most of us probably not). Anyway this front will be moving so the showers will not last long. There has been some internet chatter about a derecho, but we don’t have any expectations for that kind of event.

What will be immediately perceptible is an abrupt wind shift, from a southerly flow to strong gusts from the north. Wind gusts behind the front will be up to 45 mph across Houston, and this is strong enough to blow things around. It is advisable to secure loose objects and really take care driving. The strongest wind gusts will persist overnight before settling down a little bit on Monday morning (to maybe around 30 mph).

This won’t be a “Blue Norther” type front with temperatures dropping sharply immediately. I expect them to fall 5 to 10 degrees after the front’s passage, and then steadily drop with temperatures in the low 50s by midnight, to around 40 degrees by Monday morning. So with the wind chill it will be very cold on Monday morning, possibly feeling like it’s about 30 degrees outside. You’ll definitely want to bundle up.

We’ll be back at that time with a full weather update for you.