Space City Weather

Good morning. I hope you enjoyed the colder weather this weekend, because after a brief warm-up through about Wednesday of this week, we’re plunging back into very cold (for Houston) conditions much of the rest of January.

Monday

After a cold start generally in the 30s, Martin Luther King Jr. Day will see a nice warm-up under sunny skies. Highs will reach the mid-60s, with very light wind northeasterly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night will drop into the mid-40s, beneath clear skies.

Tuesday

As winds turn more southerly overnight, Tuesday will see warmer conditions with highs likely topping out in the low 70s. Skies will again be sunny and although dewpoints will be rising, the air will still be comfortably dry. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be a fairly warm day, with highs likely reaching the mid- to upper 70s. Winds will start to kick up out of the south in response to an advancing front, perhaps gusting to around 20 mph. This front will push into the region later on Wednesday, likely during the evening or overnight hours, but some timing questions remain. I think most of the area will likely see some light rain with this front, with accumulations ranging from 0 to 0.5 inches for most. Showers are probably more likely closer to the coast than for inland locations.

Thursday and Friday

Unlike we often see with cold fronts, while this one will have cold, dry air at the surface, there will be a layer of more moist air aloft. Effectively, this means we’ll see an ongoing chance of precipitation and partly to mostly cloudy skies to end the work week. These will be cold days, likely with highs in the 40s, and Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the 30s, with a light freeze possible inland. The potential for light precipitation and temperatures near freezing does raise the possibly of seeing some sleet for well inland areas, or possibly even snowfall, on Thursday or Friday nights. Right now I’d rate these chances as fairly low, but certainly non-zero, especially for areas inland of Interstate 10. It’s something we’re watching, and will keep you in the loop as our confidence increases.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday is going to start out cold, likely in the upper 20s to lower 30s for inland areas, and slightly warmer closer to the coast. And the weekend will remain chilly, with highs perhaps around 50 degrees, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but we can’t entirely dismiss the possibility of some additional rain showers on Saturday and Saturday night. Highs may recover to around 60 degrees by the middle of next week, but overall conditions should remain chilly and winter-like for the foreseeable future.

We’ll be in for a weekend of change, and it will be obvious when it hits, as winds should be pretty gusty behind tomorrow’s cold front. That said, this will be pretty typical for a Houston winter weekend, and much of the forecast ahead will resemble a fairly typical winter here. For those of you running the Houston Marathon (or the half or 5k) this weekend, first off, good luck! Secondly, the winds on Sunday, while not as bad as tomorrow afternoon, will certainly come with some bite. With a 15 to 20 mph northwest wind and temperatures in the 30s on Sunday morning, it will feel like it’s in the 20s to start the race.

Thankfully, as temperatures warm up through the morning, the wind should slowly back down. By 10 AM, winds will be back down around 15 mph with temperatures in the 40s, making it feel more like the mid to upper-30s. It should be mainly sunny for the race, so at least you’ll have that.

Today

Before we get to Sunday, we have to get through today and tomorrow. Look for a warm one with sunshine for Friday and highs in the low, maybe mid-70s. There is some patchy fog along the coastal plain this morning, mainly south of Houston, so if your travels take you down 288 into Brazoria County or toward Matagorda County, just be aware of that through about 9 or 10 AM.

Saturday

Tomorrow’s cold front should pass through the region in the early morning hours, probably around or just before sunrise. Look for a sharp wind shift with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and some higher gusts.

This shouldn’t be widespread power outage stuff, but you might see a few reports of brief outages due to wind. Winds will be gustier along the coast, so Galveston and communities along Galveston Bay could see gusts of 40 mph or so.

Along with the winds will come falling temperatures. Saturday’s high will be achieved around daybreak, with temperatures falling through the 50s and into the 40s on Saturday morning. We’ll level off some for afternoon and maybe even warm back up a tick or two.

This front will come with limited ability to produce storms, so look for perhaps a broken area of showers in the early morning, mainly south and east of Houston. Most areas are unlikely to see measurable rainfall.

Sunday

As noted at the top, it will be cold on Sunday morning with 30s in most spots. A light freeze is a good bet outside the metro area, but the wind will actually help prevent that from being too widespread. Places like Conroe or Navasota or Cleveland or Brookshire could still see lows get close to freezing for a couple hours. Everyone else should see mid to upper-30s with that breeze. The day should be nicer with highs into the 50s and ample sunshine.

Early next week

Look for quiet weather on Monday and Tuesday. Most places will be back in the 30s on Monday morning, but a freeze is unlikely in most spots. With sunshine, we’ll warm into the 60s for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. Onshore flow resumes on Tuesday, allowing us to slowly warm, so expect lows in the 40s in the morning, warming into the 70s in the afternoon. Our next front is penciled in for Wednesday.

Late next week

Look for a fairly unsettled weather pattern to take hold for Thursday and Friday, which could lead to some rain across the area, perhaps focused mainly on the southern half of the region. Temperatures will likely stay cool behind Wednesday’s front, with perhaps a reinforcing front next weekend to usher in some even colder air by Sunday or Monday. Again, there is no realistic sign of any kind of massive cold outbreak or deep freeze (the pattern setting up over North America next week favors the strongest cold relative to normal to aim at places like Buffalo, Chicago, and Minneapolis right now, not the Plains/Texas). But it will likely be chilly regardless, and there will probably be more than one opportunity for a night of below freezing temperatures in Houston.

Speaking of Buffalo, if you’ll be watching the Bills/Pats game this weekend, it’s going to be a brutal one in Orchard Park. Saturday evening’s kickoff temperature should be about 5 degrees, give or take.

More for you Monday!

Houston will experience two pleasant, mostly sunny days before a cold front barrels into the region early on Saturday. This will set the stage for a chilly and blustery weekend, with temperatures near freezing across much of the area on Sunday and Monday mornings. Beyond the cool weather, there are no concerns for the week ahead.

Thursday

Conditions today will be pleasant, with sunny skies and moderate westerly winds. Expect highs to reach about 70 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland, and a bit warmer along the coast.

Friday

Winds will shift to come from the south on Friday, perhaps gusting to around 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. This will allow for a slightly warmer day, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Skies should remain mostly to completely sunny, however. Clouds begin to build overnight, with temperatures likely holding in the mid-50s.

Saturday

The timing of this weekend’s cold front has advanced a little bit, and it now appears as though it should reach western areas during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, central Houston by around sunrise if not before, and push off the coast by 7 to 9 am. Some scattered, light showers are possible with the front near the coast, but for the most part is should be a dry passage. In the front’s wake, winds will kick up out of the north at about 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. These winds will likely peak during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures on Saturday afternoon will probably hover in the mid-50s, dropping quickly during the evening and overnight hours.

Sunday

Lows on Sunday morning will likely start out in the mid-30s. Winds should subside some overnight, but during the pre-noon hours on Sunday we should still see some gusts of about 20 mph, and this will make the morning feel very brisk indeed. If you’re participating in the Houston Marathon, please dress accordingly, as morning wind chill temperatures should be in the 20s. High temperatures on Sunday, beneath sunny skies, will likely peak in the mid-50s before another cold night with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s in Houston, with a freeze possible for outlying areas.

Next week

We’ll see a gradual warm-up through about Wednesday of next week, with highs likely reaching the low- to mid-70s before some kind of front arrives. Light rain is possible with the front, which should knock overnight lows into the 40s or possibly even 30s for the second half of next week. As ever, details are to come.

For now there’s no indication of extremely cold weather, but the rest of January does look to be rather winter-like for Houston. While there may be the odd 70-degree day, for the most part we’ll be colder during the daytime, with plenty of nights in the 30s and 40s. A freeze is possible as soon as Sunday morning in outlying areas of the region, and it will definitely make for a cold Houston Marathon.

Wednesday

Temperatures have fallen to around 50 degrees this morning, and with a fair amount of cloud cover they’ll be slow to rise before noon. But with more sunshine this afternoon, I’d expect much of the region to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Light northeast winds will turn more westerly this afternoon. With clearing skies later today and tonight, most areas should see low temperatures drop into the 40s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of splendid days, with sunny skies and highs between 70 and 75 degrees. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to low 50s, for the most part, with generally moderate winds. Dewpoints will creep into the upper 50s by Friday afternoon or evening, so it will feel a bit humid, but overall these will just be wonderful weather days for the region. Enjoy!

Saturday

Change will arrive by Saturday morning, with a strong front pushing into northwest areas probably sometime around sunrise or shortly thereafter, into Houston during the mid-morning hours, and arriving near the coast around Noon. It’s likely that the front’s passage will be a dry one, or with only a bit of light rain, but with plenty of wind. Gusts on Saturday afternoon may well get above 30 mph as temperatures hover in the 50s despite sunny skies. Winds will continue to blow on Saturday night as lows drop into the upper 30s in Houston.

Sunday

The good news if you’re running the marathon is that we can be highly confident in dry conditions, both in terms of humidity as well as clear skies. For those who like the cold, Houston Marathon start line temperatures will be rather chilly, too. Expect the mercury to be somewhere between 35 and 40 degrees. The less good news is that while winds will slacken some from Saturday, I think we’ll still see a persistent northerly wind on Sunday morning of about 10 mph, with gusts from 15 to 20 mph. That is less than ideal for both runners and all the amazing volunteers at the marathon. Highs will climb into the 50s during the afternoon. Lows will drop into the 30s on Sunday night, with some inland areas again seeing a light freeze.

Next week

Temperatures will gradually warm next week through about Wednesday, when the next front arrives. This one has a better chance of producing some rainfall, but nothing that looks too crazy in terms of amounts. Lows should drop back into the 40s toward the weekend.