Space City Weather

One of the questions I’m regularly asked is for a long-term forecast for an outdoor wedding or reception in the greater Houston area. The reality is, a forecast for anything further than about 10 days out is little more than a wild guess, and planning for weddings takes months. So my advice to people considering outdoor events in Houston is to choose the time of year carefully.

A few years ago I spent some time studying this question, and the conclusion I came to is that March is the best time of year for outdoor events, in particular the second half of the month. Why? In addition to being fairly temperate, late March actually has the lowest daily chance of precipitation of any time of year. Here’s the full analysis I performed. That is not to say bad weather does not occur in March. Of course it does. But if you took this advice months ago and planned your wedding for this weekend, well, Saturday is going to be splendid. You’re welcome.

Wednesday

Houston has firmly returned to a warmer, and more humid pattern with a pronounced southerly flow. Lows this morning have only fallen to about 70 degrees, and with partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach about 80 degrees or a few ticks higher. Again, a few sprinkles will be possible, but most of the area should remain rain free. Winds will blow from the south, gusting to 20 mph or higher this afternoon. Lows tonight will again be warm.

Thursday

Conditions will be similar on Thursday, with perhaps even more pronounced winds out of the south gusting up to 30 mph. Highs for some inland areas may reach the mid-80s.

Friday

A weak front will push through the area on Friday, likely with a thin line of showers and a few thunderstorms. At this point I think any severe weather probably will remain to the north and east of Houston, and rain accumulations here likely only be measured in one or two tenths of an inch of rain. Showers should end during the late afternoon or evening hours, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This is the pick of the litter for the weekend. Although highs will get into the low 80s, the daytime will have plenty of dry air from the front, and this will also clear our skies out for the day. The onshore flow resumes pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or evening, however, and therefore lows on Saturday night probably will only drop into the low 60s.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday and part of Monday look warmish, with highs in the low 80s and humidity, before another front arrives on Monday. Both days also have a 40-ish percent chance of light rain. It’s too early for firm details, but I think we’ll see a few days in the 70s, with lows in the 50s next week in the wake of the front. That should feel pretty pleasantly spring-like for the region I’d say.

Houston’s first nighttime temperature below 50 degrees this winter occurred back on October 19, about five months ago. With Houston now getting deeper into Spring—and June just 72 days away—it is natural to wonder whether this most recent cold spell was the region’s last of the winter.

The short answer, I would say, is no. While we are definitely entering a pattern where warmer rather than colder weather is the norm, we should still see some decently cold weather during the next six weeks. In fact, I think there’s a modest chance that parts of the Houston metro area see sub-50 degree temperatures about eight to 10 days from now.

Tuesday

But not today. The onshore flow is fully in control of our weather this morning, and we’re going to see a gradual rise in humidity until a front on Friday. High temperatures today will be on the order of the low 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south, gusting to 25 mph at times. And low temperatures tonight will not drop far, perhaps only into the upper 60s. A few areas may see some sprinkles later today as a weak disturbance moves through.

Wednesday

Warmer still, with a high temperature of around 80 degrees and continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will again be gusty of out the south.

Thursday

This probably will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Nights will continue to humid and mild.

Friday

I expect fairly widespread showers on Friday, but accumulations look fairly slight, on the order of one-quarter to one-half an inch of rain for most. At this point I can’t entirely rule out some stronger thunderstorms with the front, but as of now I don’t think there will be too many fireworks with its passage. These showers should end by the afternoon, or early evening hours as a moderate front moves in with some drier air. Highs on Friday will be about 80 degrees ahead of the front, dropping into the 50s overnight.

Saturday

This will be a fine springtime day with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. The reason we’re going to get so warm right after the frontal passage is that we’re going to see some fairly dry air moving in for a brief period on Saturday. But these winds will turn southerly again pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or so, and therefore I expect lows on Saturday night to only drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

Highs on Sunday will again be in the low 80s, but with more humidity and probably more clouds.

Next week

Monday looks warm as well before another decent front moves in to bring us some days in the 70s, probably. Rain chances look fairly low, and temperatures fairly moderate, for much of next week.

Good morning! Lows bottomed out in the upper-30s and low-40s across much of Houston this morning, and I think this probably will be our coldest weather until October, or possibly even November in the region. Significantly warmer conditions are on the way after today, with a return to highs in the low 80s by Wednesday or so.

The good news is that the passage of a strong front on Friday, with a combination of winds and rainfall, really helped to knock down tree pollen and mold spore allergies over the weekend. We have definitely come through the worst of the spring time allergy season for oak trees and its messy, yellowish pollen.

Monday

Today will be our final chilly day, with highs likely only topping out around 60 degrees as a cold air mass remains in place and skies are mostly cloudy. However, change is on the way as winds will shift to come from north-northeast to the southeast. This shift will moderate lows on Monday night, likely keeping most of the region in the low- to mid-50s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be warmer, with highs generally in the low- to mid-70s, and more partly to mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will start to become more pronounced, picking up to 15 or 20 mph. Low temperatures will only briefly drop below 70 degrees in the metro area.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs ranging from 80 to 85 degrees, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. The southerly flow will be really noticeable, with wind gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph due to a fairly steep pressure gradient. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

The region’s next front will arrive on Friday, and it should bring a healthy chance of rain showers into the region starting during the early morning hours. Accumulations look to be about one-half inch of rain north of Interstate 10, with lesser amounts to the south, but I would not bank on those amounts just yet. The front is not particularly strong, so high temperatures on Friday will still reach about 80 degrees, with lows perhaps dropping into the upper 50s on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks great, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 80 degrees on Saturday. On Sunday, as the onshore flow resumes, we may see a few scattered showers, although I don’t feel overly confident in the details just yet. Most of next week should see highs in the 70s, with nothing too extreme on the way. Enjoy your springtime weather, Houston!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate. Just a little different out there this morning! Temperatures versus 24 hours are much colder.

We are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and that disparity will probably worsen through the day as temperatures stagnate. It feels more like a Valentine’s Day than a St. Patrick’s Day.

Today

Last night’s line of storms is now long gone, but we are left with showers that will actually tick up in intensity some in the Houston area over the next hour or two.

Look for rain or showers to continue through probably midday across much of the area, and even then it will only gradually shut off. Temperatures will go almost nowhere today, stuck in the 40s, maybe up to low-50s in a few spots later this afternoon. The wind will continue howling at times as well through the day.

Tonight

Cody Johnson takes the stage tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you’ll want to dress warmly! Temperatures will be near 50 degrees on your way in and in the upper 40s on your way out with a continued breeze. Rain should be done with, but it will still be a bit damp.

Low temperatures tonight will bottom out generally in the 40s area-wide. Some light rain showers are possible toward morning.

Saturday & Sunday

Look for another cloud-dominant day tomorrow. Temperatures will probably again struggle into the mid-50s at best. A few passing showers will be around, especially south of Houston. It’s entirely possible that a few areas see some sleet mix in with the rain, though I’m not sure it will be precipitating hard enough for that to happen. For those of you planning outdoor activities, there’s probably a better chance than not that you’ll be mainly dry this weekend, but it will remain breezy and chilly and mostly cloudy.

Morning lows will be chilly on Sunday. We expect 30s and 40s for minimums. A freeze is not a concern in the Houston area, but it’ll certainly feel cold. Look for another day of mostly cloudy skies and low-end shower chances on Sunday, with highs perhaps a little better into the mid or even upper-50s. Either way, be ready for a chilly finale to the Rodeo!

A quick note: If your travels are to or from Big Bend or Guadalupe Mountains National Park this weekend, there is a good chance of some snow out that way. Higher elevations of West Texas may see an inch or two of snowfall from this moisture and cold.

More a curiosity than a travel woe, but certainly impressive for mid-March!

Monday and Tuesday

Look for another day of mid or upper-50s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s on Monday. Monday morning may be the coldest of this stretch with widespread mid to upper-30s. Tuesday will see 40s to low-50s in the morning and upper-60s in the afternoon. Both days will be partly sunny with a low-end chance of showers.

Later next week

We will certainly warm up a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for mid to upper-70s on Wednesday and 80s on Thursday. Both days should see at least some sunshine.

Beyond that, we may see another cold front around next Friday or Saturday to offer some comfortable weather next weekend and early on the week of the 27th. More on that next week.