It is not atypical for high pressure to dominate Houston’s weather for weeks at a time, as it has so far this month. But it is atypical for this pattern to dominate in May, rather than later during the summer in July or August. However, it appears that high pressure will nonetheless be with us for awhile, and accordingly the rest of May will probably be warmer (and drier) than normal. The 16-day forecast from the GFS (never to be trusted, but in this case it’s probably not that far off) offers this outlook for the rest of the month:

Enjoy the rest of your May, Houston. (Weather Bell)

For May, that’s pretty brutal.

So if days are this hot in May, what does this mean for July and August? We’ll have a comprehensive post on Wednesday that will look at the summer forecast for Houston and southeast Texas. We know it will be hot. But how hot?

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Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but you may have seen that the National Hurricane Center has identified a low-pressure system across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in three to five days as it moves northward (a 40 percent chance). Regardless of whether this system develops, it is going to mean a wet week for Florida and Alabama, and continued very dry weather for the greater Houston area.

Five-day tropical outlook for the Atlantic. (National Hurricane Center)

Put another way, this tropical system is going to have zero effect on Texas. Also, if you’re concerned about what the formation of a tropical system before the actual beginning of hurricane season may mean—don’t be. These storms happen every two or three years, and there is little to no correlation between the development of a pre-season storm and that year’s overall activity in the Atlantic.

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For parts of Houston, last Friday and Saturday provided some decent rain showers, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. But for much of the city, especially the southern half, it has been a dry end of spring. Hobby Airport, for example, has not seen any measurable rainfall since April 21. Because the region had a generally wet winter (not to mention Hurricane Harvey last August), drought conditions are only beginning to creep northward, from the Coastal Bend toward Houston. But make no mistake, unless it starts raining more soon, with temperatures now in the 90s, it won’t take too long for a drought to develop if these conditions persist.

Drought monitor report for Texas released on Thursday.

Unfortunately, the next week looks mostly to even completely dry for the region. (Some scattered showers will definitely be possible, but accumulations should be slight). I think we are probably 7 to 10 days away from any meaningful rain falling across Houston.

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