In brief: Houston’s pattern will continue to bring a chance of daily showers. For the next two days, in particular, much of the region should see rain and a bit cooler temperatures. We should get back into the mid-90s later this week, and into the weekend. So basically, it will feel like July in July.

A year since Beryl

Conditions are quite a bit nicer this morning than they were one year ago today, when Hurricane Beryl made landfall down the coast from Houston. At this time we were seeing maximum winds across the region, with gusts above hurricane force strength affecting much of the area. This caused significant tree damage and knocked power out to millions in the region. So it is not a particularly happy memory for most of us.

Tuesday

A couple of factors will support ongoing, healthy rain chances across the Houston region this week. These conditions, the combination of lower pressure and lots of moisture in the atmosphere, should be especially pronounced today and Wednesday. As a result we should see the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms.

As usual, these showers will be hit or miss. They will start out closer to the coast later this morning, and then spread inland throughout the afternoon and early evening before waning after sunset. Some locations may pick up 1 inch of rain under stronger storms, whereas as other locations will only see light rain or dark skies. You’ve seen this story before in Houston. Most locations, on average, should pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain by the end of Wednesday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, in addition to rain-cooled air, should help to limit high temperatures to the lower 90s. Winds, generally, will be light at 5 to 10 mph except within stronger thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.

Wednesday

This will be a similar day to Tuesday, with rain chances above 50 percent. Again we can expect a few thunderstorms, but mostly I think these will be light to moderate showers. Highs, again, will be in the lower 90s.

Thursday and Friday

The second half of the week should bring somewhat lower rain chances, but they still should be somewhere in the 30 to 50 percent range. Accumulations will be less for most locations. Accordingly, daytime highs will be a little bit warmer, in the mid-90s for most locations. This is plenty hot, but also pretty much par for the course in mid-July.

Saturday and Sunday

Unfortunately I still do not have a great handle on the outlook for this weekend. It depends on the extent to which high pressure can build up over the area, and there is no agreement in the various models I am looking at. My sense is that we’ll see highs in the mid-90s, with a decent (i.e. maybe 30 percent) chance of light to moderate showers each day. Hopefully in another day, or so, the forecast will come into better focus.

Next week

Overall next week looks a little bit warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and possibly some areas sneaking into the upper 90s. I think rain chances may step back a little bit, compared to this week at least, but I’m not sure the spigot will be entirely shut off. Basically, July will continue to do July things, probably.

In brief: In today’s post we reflect on the horrors of the flooding in Central Texas on the Fourth of July. With our local forecast, we are going to see the return of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms for a few days this week before coverage probably wanes some heading into the weekend.

Some Central Texas thoughts

Like so many of you, Matt and I watched the flooding tragedy unfold in Central Texas over the holiday weekend in horror. At last count more than 80 people have died, including some young people from Houston at Camp Mystic. As a father of two daughters, the single greatest fear in my life is that something serious happens to one of my kids. I cannot imagine the grief and anger and sadness and other incredibly strong emotions that affected family members are now feeling. You have our love and sympathy.

Matt wrote about the meteorology behind this historic flooding over on The Eyewall this weekend. The basic story is that the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled over Central Texas, setting the stage for heavy rainfall not dissimilar to what the Houston region experienced during Hurricane Harvey nearly eight years ago. The rains were not as long-lasting, as Central Texas is further from the Gulf and an efficient source of moisture. But the rain was extreme, and rapidly led to catastrophic flooding.

Overall we don’t believe the recent cuts to the National Weather Service by the Trump Administration—which are concerning for multiple reasons, and will negatively impact forecasting—played a significant role in warnings issued for this storm. The relevant offices of the weather service were reasonably well staffed, and they issued warnings in a timely manner. Yes, the overall rain totals in parts of Kerr County over-performed expectations, but flash flood warnings were in place for the region.

I think a major part of the problem is that these floods developed after midnight on a major holiday. Additionally, the most affected areas were largely remote, with some places lacking even a cell phone signal. So although there were flash flood warnings in place when the waters began rising, they were not seen or, in some cases heeded. That is not to say the forecasts were perfect. In an ideal world residents in these areas would have had days of warnings, rather than hours, but this is not always the case in extreme weather. For example, Harvey’s flooding was relatively well forecast in Houston before landfall, but the derecho in May 2024 was not well predicted. Meteorologists are not perfect, and neither are our forecasts.

A couple of readers have said they were disappointed that Space City Weather did not sound the warning on these storms. I hear you, but I would like to say a couple of things. Firstly, Kerrville and areas surrounding it lie very far outside of our forecast area. They are 250 miles from Houston, and our focus is this metro area and surrounding counties. We are intensely local. If this were an Austin- or San Antonio-based site, it would be a completely different story.

Second, when I looked at all of this on Thursday morning, the forecast for heavy rainfall did not look overly extreme in Central Texas. Some bad rains, certainly. But not what ultimately transpired. If we had really known what was was about to happen early on the Fourth of July, if we could have saved lives amid this awful natural disaster, we would have shouted it from the rooftops, even if it was far away in Texas. The reality is we did not. I dearly wish it were otherwise.

Monday

After largely rain-free conditions across the region this weekend in Houston, the atmosphere above our area will become more favorable to showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. In the absence of high pressure, with the region open to the Gulf, rain chances will be on the order of 50 percent or higher on Monday, and likely for much of the coming week. Chances will peak during the late morning and afternoon hours as showers and thunderstorms spread inland. These storms will definitely be hit or miss, but where they “hit” they could quickly produce on the order 1 inch of rain or more. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s, with lows in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rains likely peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with chances of 60 percent or higher for most of the area. Again we expect some pockets of heavier rainfall in which 1 to 2 inches may fall, whereas the vast majority of Houston will probably see less. Daily shower chances will help to corral high temperatures in the lower 90s for much of Houston. Although we don’t anticipate significant flooding, we are going to be watching this setup closely.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

There is not yet a clear signal for when high pressure will return in force for the greater Houston region. It may happen as early as Friday or Saturday, or it may not be until some time next week. As a result the forecast for this weekend is kind of fudged. Generally we can probably expect high temperatures in the mid-90s. Let’s go ahead and ballpark a 30 percent chance of daily rain showers, but if you asked me how confident I felt in that I would say not very. We’ll likely have to adjust that number upward or downward as we get closer to the coming weekend.

Atlantic tropics

Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened to become a depression over the eastern United States, and is on its way to dissipating. Beyond this, the tropics are quiet. With another large plume of Saharan dust moving off of Africa, I think it’s most likely that tropical activity remains low over the next week or so. In any case there’s nothing I’m watching that is giving me too much concern.

In brief: Serious flooding is ongoing in Central Texas along the Guadalupe and San Saba Rivers after a foot of rain or more fell across parts of that area. Locally, another round of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, followed by a fairly typical summer-like pattern this weekend and beyond.

Thursday & Thursday night storms

As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.

On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.

Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city. Additional rivers are expected to rise deep into flood stage, with major flooding possible in spots. If you have friends or family that headed out to the Guadalupe or San Saba Rivers, make sure they’re taking any warnings from local officials seriously. More rain is possible today, with some already occurring again this morning.

Today

For Houston, today should probably unfold somewhat similar to yesterday with showers likely to pop up across the region this afternoon. Rain could again be heavy.

Storms should keep moving today limiting flooding risk. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible as well. We do expect storms to settle down or dissipate in time for evening celebrations across the region.

Weekend

Additional scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow, followed by a lesser chance on Sunday. Overall, if you can just manage to live with some passing showers for an hour or two, the weekend should be fine. We’ll keep watching in case anything should change on us again, however. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Next week

It looks like a mostly typical summer week next week. I would expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with highs in the 90s. There may be a skew toward slightly less afternoon storm coverage and hotter temps later in the week.

In brief: A passing shortwave will bring a decent chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday. However we expect dry weather for fireworks on the Fourth of July, and most of the weekend should be rain-free. Temperatures look to remain hot for awhile, as is expected during July.

A shortwave surprise

One thing about meteorology is that it always keeps you on your toes. For several days now we’ve been predicting that high pressure would largely keep rain chances at bay during the second half of this week. But now it turns out that high won’t be quite strong enough to keep an atmospheric disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, from sliding into the region today. It is unlikely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, but there should at least be some scattered activity this afternoon, and a few showers on the Fourth of July as well. I still don’t anticipate any impacts on fireworks, however.

Thursday

The radar is quiet right now, but later this morning we are likely to see some showers develop to the west of the region. These should progress toward Houston during the middle of the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area this afternoon. Overall, your chance of seeing precipitation is probably about one-in-three. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at about 5 mph. Rain chances die off tonight, with muggy conditions and lows in the upper 70s.

Friday

The Fourth of July will bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures in the mid-90s or thereabouts. We will again see a chance of rain, although coverage might be slightly less than Thursday. So we should be somewhere between scattered and isolated showers. I expect these to diminish during the evening hours, so impacts on fireworks should be negligible. Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are low to non-existent on Saturday. They look a little bit higher on Sunday, perhaps 30 percent, with the same heat and humidity.

Next week

Another disturbance is likely to traverse the area on Monday, leading to an elevated chance of rain before high pressure returns again. Most of next week will probably see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight chance of rain along the sea breeze. So, all in all, it should be pretty July-like.