Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses the subtle change in our weather pattern that will control our region’s conditions over the next week or so. Houston is still going to be warm, but not sizzling hot. Rain chances return to the forecast, but overall they remain fairly low. And when are we getting the next front?

A little cooler, a little more humid

After today, Houston’s flow will become more easterly in response to a trough of low pressure offshore. This will mean an increase in winds, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph or higher during the afternoon. In recent weeks the daily winds have been quite a bit less than this for the most part. We are also going to see dewpoints rise from about 60 degrees during the afternoon to the upper 60s (at least) by this weekend, and this will make afternoon temperatures feel more humid.

However this increase in atmospheric moisture will cause daily highs to be a few degrees cooler, and produce a few more clouds. By Friday we should see the possibility of some light showers returning to the forecast, but overall chances will still only be on the order of 20 percent. We will remain in this new pattern for about a week, at least, before the chance of a front to shake things up.

Thursday

As mentioned today will be a little bit hotter, with sunny skies, modestly drier air, and northeast winds. Highs will be in the lower 90s in Houston, with mid-90s possible to the west (and possibly north) of the city. Rain chances are near zero. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

With a more easterly flow in place, these will be more humid days, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There will be a few clouds, and a slight chance of some afternoon showers. Winds may also turn a bit gusty from the east-southeast, up to 20 or 25 mph.

Next week

The pattern for this weekend more or less remains the same for the remainder of the coming work week. If you squint at the ensemble models there appears to be a decent chance for some kind of front by Thursday or Friday of next week, with the AI version of the European model among the more bullish solutions. At this point I’d lay odds of 30 to 50 percent of seeing a cooler and significantly less humid turn in our weather by next weekend. So at this point it is something to hope for, rather than bank on.

In brief: Today’s post starts out with lyrics from Green Day, which should say something about the invariability of our weather in the days ahead. But anyway, September has ended, October is here, and our eternal watch for fall-like weather continues.

September ends

Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
Wake me up when September ends

Those are the opening lines of Green Day’s iconic song “Wake me up when September ends.” It actually has nothing to do with summer or weather (it’s about the death of the singer’s father), but the lyrics were running through my mind yesterday. In Houston you very well know August is always going to be scorching. You know September is going to be hot too, but with one or two fleeting fronts there is some hope for slightly cooler nights.

By October, well, that is when we can have some expectation of starting to see real cold fronts that knock nighttime temperatures into the 50s. Some days in the 80s with dry air. Alas, here we are on October 1, 2025. And there is no sign of such a front. In fact, the first 10 days of the month look very much like September. So maybe go back to sleep for awhile longer, everyone.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fairly hot and sunny days, especially for October. We are unlikely to set high temperature records, but the city will flirt with them. In central and southern areas, highs should reach the lower 90s, but for inland areas north and west of downtown, highs could reach the mid-90s. This is partly because afternoon dewpoints should fall to around 60 degrees. So it will be a slightly drier heat, as we’ve seen the last couple of days. Winds will be light, from the north at about 5 mph. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Rain chances are basically zero.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

With a more easterly flow setting up for this weekend we will see humidity levels increase somewhat. We are not going to feel summertime humidity levels, but it will still be sticky compared to what we’ve experienced the last several days. This increased moisture level should take a little bit of the top off of daily highs, with the region reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Nights will be slightly warmer, in the low- to mid-70s. And there will be some slight rain chances on Friday and Saturday, perhaps getting up to 30 percent or so by Sunday. Basically, if you live south of Interstate 10 there’s a puncher’s chance of a passing shower, with the best odds right along the coast. If you live further north, you may be better off playing the lottery.

Next week

To be honest, not much appears to change for the majority of next week. What you see this weekend you’re likely to see for much of next week. Maybe that begins to change toward the end of next week. But also, maybe not.

In brief: This is largely a persistence forecast. Houston will face temperatures in the low- to mid-90s this week before rising humidity levels bring highs down slightly this weekend. Bigger changes are possible next week, but we’re making no promises.

Tuesday

We are seeing mostly cloudy skies this morning due to a passing disturbance. If there were more moisture in the atmosphere this might spark some showers, but there’s just not much to work with. So we have overcast skies, and these should give way to sunshine later this morning or by early afternoon at the latest. Following this we are going to see temperatures rise into the lower 90s in Houston, with mid-90s possible for areas west and north of the city. Afternoon dewpoints will drop to about 60 degrees so this won’t be super sultry weather like summertime in Houston, but it will be hot for the end of September nevertheless.

Winds will be light, from the north at about 5 mph today, shifting to come from the east tonight. Lows will drop into the lower 70s. With the slightly lower humidity, nights and mornings will continue to feel pleasant for a couple of more days before dewpoints rise a bit by Friday or so.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be hot and sunny days, with highs in the lower 90s in Houston, and possibly mid-90s for inland areas. Dewpoints will remain marginally lower to keep a bit of a lid on humidity. Rain chances remain near zero. Nights drop into the lower 70s for most except the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

By the weekend the flow turns more southerly, so dewpoints will ramp up slightly. This increased atmospheric moisture should limit highs to around 90 degrees, and push overnight lows to the mid-70s. Each day should bring a slight chance of rain, perhaps 20 or 30 percent for areas near the coast, with lesser chances inland. Any accumulations should be very slight.

Next week

Most of next week will likely see a continuation of the pattern above, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Rain chances may start to look a little better by Monday or Tuesday, but we still probably are looking at overall low likelihoods and nothing serious in the way of accumulations. That may finally start to change toward the end of next week when a cool front could approach the area. But from this far out I would be a fool to make any promises. So I’m not.

In brief: In today’s update we discuss the upcoming heat for this week, which may relent slightly by the weekend. We also remain in a bear market for cool fronts, with nothing in the cards until at least the middle of next week.

Heat, with October on the horizon

We’ve had a pretty typical September, in which we still have some hot days, but also get some slightly cooler nights from time to time. This week the calendar turns to October, but the heat is continuing. Inland areas may reach the mid-90s for a couple of days (Wednesday and Thursday). How normal is this for this time of year?

Well, it’s not normal, but we also probably will not set any record highs. The highest temperature recorded in Houston on October 1 is 99 degrees (1900) and on October 2 it is 97 degrees (1938). So yes, our highs are likely to run several degrees above normal this week, but we should fall short of record heat. And this week’s soaring temperatures serve as a reminder that although fall is clearly on the horizon, we’re still dealing with the remnants of summer.

Monday

High temperatures today should remain in the lower 90s for most of the area, with a nice amount of drier air. Skies will be mostly sunny. Dewpoints should drop into the 50s this afternoon. However nighttime temperatures should be several degrees warmer, perhaps dropping only into the lower 70s, as some clouds build overhead due to a passing disturbance.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

A few clouds may linger into Tuesday morning, but for the most part these days will be sunny and hot. Central and southern parts of Houston may remain in the lower 90s, but some inland spots will probably hit the mid-90s with sunny skies and a fairly dry atmosphere allowing for efficient heating. Nighttime lows will be in the lower 70s. This probably isn’t the way most of us wanted to begin October, but here we are.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A slightly more humid flow should moderate daily high temperatures a bit, to around 90 degrees this weekend. I still expect mostly sunny skies, but we could also see some isolated to scattered sea breeze showers each afternoon. Overall, chances each day are probably about 20 percent. If you’re participating in the 2025 Komen Houston Race for the Cure I expect conditions to be fine on Saturday morning, with any showers (however unlikely) holding off until the afternoon.

Next week

I expect this pattern to mostly hold for next week, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. There is some whiff of a front in the models during the second half of next week, but nothing so concrete as to have any confidence at this point. We shall see.

Atlantic tropics

We have a busy scene in the Atlantic tropics, with Hurricane Humberto briefly ascending to Category 5 hurricane status on Sunday, but fortunately no direct threat to land. Tropical Storm Imelda also formed this weekend over the Bahamas, but due to interactions with Humberto it is likely to be pulled away from the southeastern United States, out to sea. And finally it is possible that a tropical disturbance develops in the southern Gulf at some point during the next week or so, but this seems unlikely to track north toward Texas and be a significant player in our weather.