Eric Berger

In brief: A tropical low has developed in the northern Gulf, and it will move generally west toward Texas over the next couple of days. We assess what this means for the greater Houston region this week, which hopefully means some beneficial rains.

Over the last day or so we have seen a low pressure system in the northern Gulf slowly develop. Thunderstorms associated with the low, designated Invest 97L, have become better organized overnight, but so far surface pressures (another indication of organization) have yet to drop significantly. So we have, essentially, a tropical blob sitting out there 100 miles or so south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

With high pressure over the southern United States we can expect this tropical low to to generally move to the west or west-northwest over the next couple of days. This is likely to bring the system toward the upper Texas coast by midweek, which is to say somewhere probably between Galveston Bay and the Texas-Louisiana border. Of course, in the absence of a well-formed center, there remains some uncertainty in the track.

So something is coming toward the upper Texas coast, and it will likely reach land on Tuesday or Wednesday. Our baseline expectation is that this remains a tropical low pressure system or a depression, but there is a chance for development into a tropical storm. Surface waters are more than warm enough (sizzling actually) to support intensification, and wind shear is relatively low. So if the current system can develop some spin, it will have a chance to organize.

Should you be concerned? Not at this time. The system would be beneficial should it bring some much needed rainfall into the region on Tuesday or Wednesday, but these rains could just as easily fall to our east, over Beaumont or southwestern Louisiana. As for amounts, maybe 1 to 3 inches? It’s difficult to say with any confidence yet. Regarding winds and storm surge, we will keep an eye on things for you, especially with the tropical low so close to Texas.

More tomorrow.

In brief: We actually have some dynamic weather to talk about in today’s forecast! Due to a boundary moving in, the region will see some shower and thunderstorm chances. The most likely time frame for this is Thursday afternoon north of the city, and the evening hours in Houston and closer to the coast.

Rain, actually

It has been a long, hot, and mostly dry August but some real change is on the way. It’s still going to be sizzling today, with temperatures in the upper 90s. But after today most of the region will fall back into the mid-90s for awhile. And thanks to a stalling boundary, we are going to see a healthy chance of rain showers today in the greater Houston area. Not everyone is going to see showers or thunderstorms, but overall chances are probably on the order of 50 percent, which represents our highest likelihood of rain in weeks.

Thursday

With a check of the radar just before sunrise, we can see shower activity developing north of the Houston region, in areas such as College Station and Livingston. These showers should progress into Montgomery County over the next hour or two before stalling out. I don’t think they will get all the way to Harris County, at least for the most part.

We will see sunny skies during the middle of the day, and very hot conditions like we’ve experienced so far this week. However we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, possibly initiating north of Interstate 10 and then moving down toward the coast through the evening hours. This time frame represents when most of the region should see its best chance of rainfall. Accumulations will vary widely, from no rain to some bullseyes of 1 or more inches. Showers should subside by or before midnight.

Friday

We should see a few more clouds on Friday, limiting highs to the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances will be lower, possibly in the 20 to 30 percent range.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny and (for late August) temperate conditions. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s. The likelihood of rain showers is not zero, but it’s close. Overall this should be a pretty nice weekend for outdoor activities involving water.

Next week

At this point we should see a summer-like pattern next week, with high temperatures mostly in the mid-90s and a low-end potential for daily showers along the sea breeze. These are typical conditions for early September here.

In brief: After one more very hot and sunny day, a modest pattern change arrives in Houston. This will bring improved rain chances into the area on Thursday and Friday, along with slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend.

Rain, actually?

Most of Houston has not recorded measurable rainfall in more than two weeks. Officially, the city has received just 0.21 inches this month. Thanks to earlier rains in June and July, the greater Houston region still remains out of drought conditions. However we are starting to see rapidly drying vegetation, and background conditions that support wildfires are increasing. All of this is to say, we could use some rain.

Over the next couple of days a weak and dying front will move into the greater Houston region. It is not going to bring any meaningful change in our humidity, but it will perturb the atmosphere enough to bring some decent rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Most of the region is unlikely to see too much rainfall, but a few locations could pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, or even higher isolated totals. Next week should also see slightly better rain chances as well, so with some luck our region’s very dry pattern in August should break, at least a little.

Wednesday

All of that talk about rain is going to have to wait one more day, however, as we experience another hot and sunny day with high temperatures in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Winds will be light from the southwest, picking up a little bit during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows on Wednesday night will drop only to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

This will be another hot day, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. We may see a few clouds in the sky, however, along with increasing rain chances that may take some sting out of afternoon highs. These rain chances will persist into the overnight hours.

Friday

Another day with a healthy chance of scattered showers. Additionally, partly cloudy skies may hold highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is more typical for late August. Rain chances should diminish by Friday evening, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s for most locations (possibly upper 90s for far inland areas). Rain chances will fall back to about 10 percent daily.

Next week

This period should bring typical late summer weather to Houston, which is to say highs in the low- to mid-90s and daily rain chances roughly in the range of 30 percent. While this is still pretty hot, it is notably more moderate than the last 10 days or so of ‘peak’ summer we have experienced in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we review the state of the Atlantic hurricane season, which normally is taking off at this time of summer. Also we look ahead to a few more sizzling hot days before a slight cooldown this weekend to go along with some spotty shower chances. We take what we can get in late August.

Status of Atlantic hurricane season

Well, we’ve officially reached the point of summer when activity in the Atlantic Ocean typically starts ramping up. So far this year is off to a slow start, with just three tropical storms. How slow? When we look at a metric useful for gauging overall activity, “accumulated cyclone energy,” activity to date is just 14 percent of normal levels. Since 1950 only seven years have started off with less overall action in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.

Now I want to be clear: I am not taunting Mother Nature with the following words. But in reality, the runway for the rest of this hurricane season, and the state of Texas, does not stretch endlessly toward the horizon. Rather, realistically, we have about one more month before the odds of a hurricane strike on the great state drop significantly based on historical norms.

We can be pretty confident that no storms are going to move into the Gulf during the next 10 days (a promising tropical wave that recently moved off of Africa, if it develops, almost certainly will not come this way). That leaves about three weeks in September—which is quite literally the peak of the Atlantic season—when we’ll need to keep a close eye on things. Will El Niño continue to suppress activity? Some of our latest sub-seasonal modeling indicates that this is likely to be the case, but we won’t know for sure until we actually get into September. With that said we are in about as good a position as one could be, regarding hurricanes, in late August.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The very hot and sunny conditions we’ve experienced of late will persist for the next couple of days. We can expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees, plenty of humidity, and warm, sultry nights. Winds will be light during the morning, but gust up to 15 or 20 mph from the southwest during the afternoon hours.

Thursday

Some time on Thursday the high pressure ridge that has been dominating our weather during the second half of August will start to pull back to the west. I’m not sure this will happen in time to impact temperatures on Thursday, which still should reach near 100 degrees. But we may start to see a few more clouds, and by Thursday afternoon or Thursday night there might be some modest rain chances returning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will bring weather that is more typical for late August, which is to say high temperatures generally in the mid-90s and spotty showers. Rain chances won’t be high, perhaps 20 or 30 percent each day. But that’s higher that we’ve seen in a while. Skies should remain mostly sunny, and any showers that pop up probably won’t last too long.

Next week

Most likely our temperatures will remain in the mid- to upper 90s for much of next week, with mostly sunny skies and slight chances of afternoon showers. Early September is typically not much different than late August.