Eric Berger

In brief: Merry Christmas, everyone. We hope the holiday was wonderful for you. We’ve got three more days before a strong front arrives, and then we’re watching for the possibility of a light freeze in parts of Houston. Also, some readers explain why they like fog!

Remembering Neil Frank

Word that Dr. Neil Frank had died arrived shortly after I hit ‘publish’ on Wednesday’s post, so this remembrance is coming a little late. In any case, I first moved to Houston in 1997, and for the next decade he was the meteorologist I watched most on television. I always had a lot of respect for Frank because of his longtime leadership of the National Hurricane Center. He and I were not particularly close, but from time to time he would write me notes about my coverage of weather and related issues at the Houston Chronicle. I always enjoyed those interactions. What I learned most from Frank is the importance of not just scientific rigor in forecasting, but also the value of clear communication, personal warmth, and humor. In that sense, he lives on here. I offer his family and friends, as well as his former colleagues at KHOU, our best wishes from the whole Space City Weather team.

Readers share reasons to embrace fog

We were slightly critical of fog a couple of days ago, and I asked readers who did not mind it to explain why. You replied with some fun responses, so, as we deal with fog for a couple of more days before winter returns on Sunday night, I though I would share some of them.

• ajackson shared a poem by Carl Sandburg:

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.

• Cecilia sent in an email to say she likes the way it dampens sound: “It softens sounds. Sometimes to the point of silence. Living in Houston close to the loop, silence is a rare welcomed event.” And she’s right. The reasons for this are two fold. First, when it’s foggy it just means there are more tiny droplets of water in the air. This attenuates sound waves, especially at a higher frequency (or pitch). Fun fact: this is the reason why fog horns blow at a very low pitch, so their sound carries further. The second reason fog sounds quieter, I think, is because fewer people are out and about when it gets really thick.

• A pilot wrote in to say fog is a good chance to brush up on flying skills: “You asked for a reason I like fog, here it is. As a pilot, foggy weather is a great chance to brush up on flying instrument approaches. Just as long as it’s not too foggy at my home airport. If the ceiling gets much below 200-300 feet or visibility below 1/2 mile, it gets dangerous to impossible to land.

• Paul said fog should be best thought of as Southern snow: “In the south having lived here 90% of my life it is, to me, like southern snow! Everything is quiet but not as cold as snow. It wraps you into an intimate, quiet, and comforting blanket. Time stands still. All is as quiet as a recent snowfall except most of the time you’re not freezing your arse off!!”

Friday and Saturday

Really, these days will just be more of the same. We can expect high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s, with plenty of humidity. Nights will be warm and muggy, with lows falling only into the upper 60s for most locations. Winds, generally, will be light from the south. We’ll have a mix of clouds and sunshine. And that’s about it.

Sunday

This will be another warm day. In fact, with compression ahead of the front, we might see highs pushing into the low 80s for much of the region. Cooler temperatures will eventually arrive on Sunday evening, or during the overnight hours. When you wake up on Monday morning, temperatures will be much colder, likely in the 40s. Speaking of the frontal passage, there may be some brief, light to moderate showers on Sunday night with its passage along with a few thunderstorms. They should not last long as the front pushes through.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will be sharply colder. Daytime temperatures on both days will likely peak at around 50 degrees, and conditions on Monday should feel even chillier due to fairly gusty winds. Both days should see partly to mostly sunny skies. We’re closely watching for the possibility of a light freeze in Houston, which will depend on a variety of factors including winds, clouds, and just how cold a narrow wedge of air near the surface can get on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For now I’ll predict that most of metro Houston lands just above freezing, in the ballpark of 33 to 36 degrees. But it should be fairly close, and you should be prepared for the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures similar to what we experienced 10 days ago. A freeze is more likely for areas outside of Houston’s urban core, and away from the coast.

Highs on New Year’s Eve should reach about 60 degrees, but lows that night will drop into the 40s. I’m not concerned about rains or winds, but conditions will still be fairly chilly if you’re outside as you ring in the new year. We should be around 70 degrees for highs to end next week, with mild nights probably somewhere in the 50s.

In brief: In this Christmas Eve update we discuss all of the fog recorded by Houston recently. Why has there been so much? When is it going away? Will Rudolph find his way tonight? Also, next week’s cooldown looks fairly stout, sending nighttime temperatures into the 30s.

All about fog, because it’s not going away

Ugh. That’s the typical reaction you’ll get from a meteorologist when it comes to fog. It’s no fun to forecast, and it’s no fun to drive through. About the only thing fog is good for, in my opinion, is establishing a really atmospheric scene in the movies, like the opening battle in the original Gladiator. But aside from that? Ugh. If you’ve got reasons to love fog, I’d like to hear them.

Anyway, the main engine of fog in the greater Houston region during the late fall, winter, and early spring months is the Gulf. By this time of year we have had enough cool fronts come down that the near-shore waters of the Gulf, and Galveston Bay, have generally cooled down to 60 to 65 degrees. (You can check the data for yourself, here).

The important thing is that at night, and in the morning hours, air temperatures remain a little bit warmer than water temperatures, even without the Sun shining. So when we’re in a steamy pattern like we’ve been in, you’ve got this warm and humid air moving over the colder water. This cools the air to the point of saturation, which means the air is saturated with water vapor. This occurs when the air temperature equals the dewpoint temperature. So presto, we’ve got a big fog machine that gets turned on every night. This is known as marine fog.

Houston is susceptible to another kind of fog over inland areas, that forms at night when the air temperature starts to cool. Because the air is already fairly humid, the temperature does not have to drop that far to reach saturation. This process generally needs light winds, so that the lower and more humid air at the surface does not mix with slightly drier air above. This is known as “radiation fog,” and it goes away as the air temperature rises along with the Sun in the morning. This is the origin of phrases like the Sun is “burning off” the fog. In reality, the air temperature is rising above the dewpoint temperature, causing the fog to evaporate.

This foggy pattern is going to be with us until we get a wind shift (from the north rather than southeast), which is likely to happen on Sunday.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

The next two days are going to be more or less the same as we’ve experienced so far this week. They’re going to start out with patchy fog, followed by temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and partly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, generally in the mid-60s. Rain chances are low to non-existent. If you’re wondering how my long-range Christmas forecast (issued 12 days ago!) did, here you go:

I’m sorry I was not wrong.

Friday and Saturday

The end of the week should continue to see warm and fairly humid weather. If anything, we should see a little more sunshine, and this will push air temperatures to 80 degrees, or the low 80s, for many records. We have already tied several high records this week, and we are apparently gunning for more. Nights remain with, with a chance of patchy fog.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday should be fairly warm as well, with highs pushing into the upper 70s, to possibly 80 degrees. A strong front is coming, but it’s now unlikely to reach our region before Sunday evening or the overnight hours. After this we’ll have a few cold days next week, with highs likely in the 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. I don’t think the majority of the metro area will see a freeze on Tuesday morning, but it’s a possibility we’ll be watching for as the mercury bottoms out. Temperatures should rebound a little by New Year’s Eve into the 60s, but at this point I suspect temperatures that night, heading into New Year’s Day will be chilly and in the 40s. So it will be fairly cold if you’re planning to be outside for revelries. The end of next week looks a little warmer.

From all of us at Space City Weather, we would like to wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. See you on Friday morning.

In brief: We have a shorter post today, because there are only so many ways one can slice and dice our repetitive weather this week. A strong front arrives Sunday or Sunday night to return us to winterlike conditions.

Holiday plans

Given the Christmas Day holiday, our plan is to take Thursday off this week. (And really, our forecast is not going to change much between now and then). Some of our daily posts during the holiday week will also be a little shorter because really, there is just not that much to say. However that does not mean we will be bereft of gifts. To mark the Festivus holiday, we are publishing a special Q&A this morning at 10 am CT. So be sure and check back for feats of strength and airing of grievances from readers.

Tuesday through Saturday

Yes, we can confidently forecast the weather for the next six days beneath a single heading. The days really will be that repetitive due to a persistent ridge of high pressure. Each day will start out with a healthy chance of fog, especially closer to the coast. We will then see partly sunny skies. The only difference this week is that the next couple of days may see a few more clouds, and Friday and Saturday a little more sunshine. Either way we will see high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with plenty of humidity. Lows will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast, and slightly cooler inland. Morning winds will be light, with some moderate gusts building during the afternoon. And that’s it, rinse and repeat through Saturday.

Sunday

Change finally arrives on Sunday or Sunday night. Accordingly I think Sunday will start out as another warm day before a shot of colder and drier air arrives. Our lows on Sunday night will depend on how much time there is for the cooler air to push in, but 50 degrees seems about right. Rain chances with the front, and yes I know we could use some, are pretty low—something on the order of 20 percent perhaps.

Next week

Monday Tuesday and Wednesday look chilly, with daytime highs perhaps in the 50s or 60s, and lows in the 30s or 40s. We may see a bit of a warming trend by New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, but I’m not particularly confident in that. I’ll take a closer look at conditions surrounding New Year’s in tomorrow’s post.

In brief: In this morning’s post we provide an update on our toasty weather for this week. However, if the unseasonable heat has you hot and bothered, we now have a pretty firm expiration date for our warm conditions.

Unseasonable seasons greetings

Well, here we are, a mere three days before Christmas Day. And instead of “ho, ho, ho” any visiting Santa Clauses are more likely to say, “hot, hot, hot!” And who could blame them? High temperatures this week will likely reach 80 degrees every day through Saturday, or get very close to it, with nights in the mid-60s.

In terms of what is normal for this time of year, we are generally running about 15 degrees above where the December mercury usually resides. As we have been saying for awhile now, a potent high pressure system has set up over the central United States, and nearly the entire Lower 48 is going to see abnormally high temperatures during Christmas week.

Along with the daytime warmth we are going to experience dewpoints in the upper 60s to start the week, which is really, really sticky for this time of year. These should drop slightly throughout the week, but for real relief we are going to have to wait until Sunday, at least. Because of generally light winds and warm nights, we also are going to have a healthy chance of fog each morning, through Saturday. This is, unfortunately, an extremely high confidence forecast.

Monday through Friday

There’s no real sense in breaking out day-to-day forecasts, because not much is going to change in our sensible weather this week. Each day will bring highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Daily record highs for this time of year range from 81 to 84 degrees, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on those. Nighttime lows will generally fall into the mid-60s in Houston, with conditions a little cooler inland, and a little warmer along the coast. Days will be partly to mostly sunny, with more clouds at night. Dense fog will be possible each morning. Winds will be calm during the morning hours, with a southerly breeze during the afternoon.

Saturday

At this point Saturday probably will be more or less a continuation of this week’s weather. A potent front is coming this weekend, but at this point I think it will hold off until Sunday. If the front accelerates we might see some showers later on Saturday, but right now I’m doubtful.

Sunday

Some relief should finally arrive on Sunday, although the time is to be determined. We may see some light showers with the front’s passage, but overall chances look to be fairly low. Temperatures on Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, but for now let’s go with highs in the 70s.

Next week

Temperatures should drop back for several days next week. It’s too early to have much precision, but beginning Monday we should see a few days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, although it’s possible we could get colder than that for a night or two. As for New Year’s Eve, we probably will be on a slight warming trend, but my confidence is starting to wane in the forecast by then.