Eric Berger

In brief: Following a period of idyllic weather in Houston, our atmospheric pattern turns more unsettled tonight and especially on Sunday. Coastal areas, in particular, could see heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Pattern change ahead

After a few days of gorgeous, clear weather, an upper-level system will move into the region later tonight. This will set the stage for a rainy and potentially stormy Sunday. The most impactful weather will occur during the daytime on Sunday, from sunrise to sunset, but Houston may see some slight showers beforehand.

Saturday and Saturday night

Houston will see partly to mostly sunny conditions today, with highs likely pushing into the upper 60s. Some light showers will be possible later this afternoon, or evening in Houston, but I don’t believe these will be too impactful. Coastal areas, particularly to the south of Houston near Matagorda Bay, may see some thunderstorms, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night

The atmosphere will turn more conducive to rainfall and storms on Sunday as moisture levels increase and a series of disturbances move through. For most of Houston this will be manageable, with rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. There will also be the potential of thunderstorms in the city. Overall, this is not the best setup for severe weather over Houston, but closer to the coast and some warmer air I have some concerns.

These conditions should support the potential for greater rainfall totals over coastal counties such as Brazoria and Galveston, where 2 to 4 inches of rain may be possible with some higher bullseyes. As noted above, the atmospheric background for severe weather (most likely strong thunderstorms) will also be higher in these areas.

The threat of inclement weather should end by Sunday evening or so, as a colder air mass begins moving into the region but a few light showers could persist overnight. High temperatures on Monday should top out in the 50s, if you can believe it, before we begin to warm up next week.

Matt and I will be watching things closely in case we need to issue a flood stage warning for Sunday in the Houston region. If we do so, it probably would be for coastal areas, out of an abundance of caution. If we decide the pull the trigger, we will update the site this evening.

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In brief: We are going to have two splendid, sunny days ahead of the weekend, when we may see some fairly widespread showers on Sunday across the Houston region. In today’s post we also offer a way, way too early forecast for the week of Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving

We are just starting to come within the outer limits of our forecast models for the week of Thanksgiving, and the holiday itself, which comes in just two weeks’ time. In the coming of days we will experience a couple of fronts, but by the middle of next week we should see high pressure holding sway. This will push daytime temperatures into the upper 70s, probably, with mild nights in the 60s.

About 10 days from now, the most likely outcome is that the region experiences another, somewhat stronger cold front. This would set the stage for a cooler Thanksgiving week, with nights in the 50s or possibly 40s, which would be our coldest nights of the season. This cooler weather would probably persist into Thanksgiving Day (highs in the 60s?), providing a festive feeling for the holiday. As for rain chances, it’s all a little too fuzzy at this point.

Should we feel confident in this forecast? Given that it’s so far out, probably not too much. But there is decent agreement across the ensembles of several models, so I think it’s a reasonable possibility. Or who knows, maybe this forecast ends up looking like it was written by turkeys.

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Thursday and Friday

We’ve been saying for awhile these two days are going to be splendid, and Mother Nature is indeed delivering. With a weak front moving in overnight, we are going to enjoy drier air, sunny skies, and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low- to mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Really, it does not get much better than this.

Saturday

This should also be a pleasant fall day, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. However during the daytime on Saturday we’ll start to see increasing southerly winds, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. This is one sign of increasing atmospheric moisture levels, which will set the stage for rain showers. These may begin on Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday morning.

Sunday

We are likely to see widespread showers on Sunday with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Showers will be most likely during the afternoon, probably, but could occur throughout the day. I expect much of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although at this point I do not believe we will see much, if any, severe weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-70s, before the arrival of the front later on Sunday or Sunday night pushes temperatures into the 50s by Monday morning.

Next week

With high pressure in place after the front, we should see highs in the 60s to start next week with partly sunny skies. Eventually, during the second half of next week, we should see the aforementioned warming trend with highs pushing into the 70s, and possibly upper 70s. And then we’re getting close to the week of Thanksgiving, which we discussed at the outset of today’s post.

In brief: Good morning, and we hope you have a meaningful Veterans Day. In today’s post we discuss the significant rainfall picked up by the Houston region to start the week; and we have some good news if you’re tired of the dreary weather.

A pair of dreary days, but that’s OK

The rain is not for everyone—there have been a few grumbles in my house this week about gray skies and precipitation—but the dreary start to this week has provided some welcome relief to Houston-area soils. Much of the region is in a drought, and our coastal counties including Galveston and Brazoria have slipped into an extreme drought after a very dry late summer and start to fall.

The rains over the last couple of days won’t end the drought. But at this time of year a bit of rain goes a long way with the shorter days, lower sun angle, and cooler temperatures. Over the last two days the drier parts of our region, along and south of Interstate 10, generally picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain. The widespread showers mostly came in the form of gentle rain, although we definitely had some rumbling thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper-level system passed nearby.

These showers were over-performers as at the start of the week I would have predicted maybe a few tenths of an inch of rain, at most, over Monday and Tuesday. But I’m definitely not complaining. And hey, if you’re sick of the rain it largely ends this morning. And we’ll have wall-to-wall sunshine and generally gorgeous weather on Thursday and Friday. So this week Mother Nature has a little something for everyone.

Wednesday

Rain showers have largely exited to the east, but we may see a few sporadic showers pop up later this morning on Veterans Day. Call it about a 10 or 20 percent chance. Skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy today, however, with moderately sticky humidity. Expect highs in the upper 70s. Winds will shift to come from the north tonight as a cold front moves in, bringing drier air Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of splendid days with mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the upper 70s. Thursday could be a little breezy, with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph, but this front does not appear to be too in-your-face in terms of winds. Lows on both nights should drop into the mid-50s in Houston proper, with upper 40s possible for outlying areas. This, for my money, is the best of fall weather we see down here.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see partly to mostly sunny skies as well. Expect highs in the mid-70s with modest humidity levels. However by Saturday afternoon or (more likely) Saturday evening or overnight we will see the return of some rain chances due to increasing moisture levels in the upper atmosphere. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

We’ve still got a fair bit of uncertainty about conditions on Sunday. Highs will likely be in the low 70s with a mix of clouds and sunshine. I think we’ll see about a 50 percent chance of rain, but again I don’t feel super confident in the details. If you have outdoor plans, give us another day or so to pin down this forecast with a little more accuracy. At some point (on Sunday night, maybe?) a cold front is going to push into the region and this may be the spark for some additional showers. For now I don’t anticipate any severe weather with the front.

Next week

In the wake of this front, generally, we can expect a couple of cooler days with highs likely in the 60s and lows in the 50s. We probably will see some sort of warming trend heading toward next weekend. Maybe I’ll be brave tomorrow and push out a way, way too early forecast for Thanksgiving week in Houston.

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the sublime (for some!) weather Houston experienced on Monday, and why there may be a few more rainy and cooler days in the week ahead. But don’t worry sunshine fans, we also have some splendid, sunny days ahead with low humidity.

Why did we begin our fundraiser this week?

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A cool, rainy Monday

For central and southern areas of Houston Monday was a strange day, the likes of which we almost never experience here. Typically, when it rains in Houston we get storms. When there’s lighter rain, it often starts and stops quickly. But not on Monday. Central and southern parts of the region (sorry, Montgomery County, you missed the party) saw on-and-off light rain showers the entire day. Slow-and-steady rain is just not something we seem to get all that often here.

And then there were the temperatures, which for most of the day hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s. If you’re from Seattle, you’re probably thinking it was pretty miserable. But if you’re from Houston, having just gone through six months of frequently hot and sunny weather, the conditions on Monday felt otherworldly. Maybe you hated it? If so, let us know in the comments.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, but perhaps not quite so Seattle-like. We’ll be a little warmer, with highs around 70 degrees, give or take. We may see a little sunshine. But once again we are going to see showers moving in from the southwest later this morning. Yesterday the showers over-performed expectations a little bit (over time some locations picked up as much as 0.5 inch). I could see the same thing happening today, although I’m far from confident. Scattered light to moderate rains will continue overnight, with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-70s. At this point I think shower activity on Tuesday night, to the extent it exists across Houston, will move offshore as low pressure moves away from the area. Accordingly I think rain chances on Wednesday after sunrise should be 10 percent, or less. A weak front arrives on Wednesday night, with drier air following into the region early on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of splendid days with highs in the mid- to upper-70s, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows on both nights should drop into the low- to mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Fall rarely gets better than this.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be similar to the previous days, albeit with slightly more humidity as the onshore flow resumes. Highs may also be a few degrees cooler. By Sunday we could see more clouds, and highs in the 60s. Rain chances may also return Sunday as another low pressure system returns to the area. In other words, Seattle, again? We shall see.

Next week

Fall like weather continues next week, with highs likely slotting somewhere in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The details are pretty fuzzy, so I’ll just leave things there.