Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the end of the Texas hurricane season, which is at hand. Fall now appears to be firmly on horizon, with a weak front today and then chances for more fronts in the coming weeks. Can I get an amen?

September 24th is here

Most years, around this date, we proclaim that the Texas hurricane season—that is, the period of the year when a hurricane could strike Texas—is over. We don’t do so every year. If it has been an especially busy hurricane season, or if there is a storm that could reasonably threaten the state within the next 10 days, or if we just don’t have any cold fronts on the horizon, we have been known to hold off. But not this year.

For starters, due in large part to El Niño, we still have not seen a single hurricane develop in the Atlantic basin this season. That has never happened in the modern era. Additionally, the Gulf looks quiet at least through the end of the month, and probably longer. And finally, we do have some fronts on the horizon: a weak one today, and potentially a another one next week. Add it all up, and we are confident that Texans can breathe easy when it comes to hurricane season this year.

Yes, more than two months remain in the official season (which ends on November 30). But by this time of year, in Texas, we start to see more influence from the mid-latitude westerlies, which tend to push tropical activity away from the state. The chance is not zero: historically there is about a 2 percent likelihood that a hurricane will strike Texas after this date. We also could see a weaker tropical storm make landfall. But our concern level is not high.

Albeit in fits and starts, fall is coming, and we encourage you to enjoy it without worrying too much about the tropics.

Thursday

Houston tied its record high (99 degrees) on Wednesday, but after a very hot mid-September stretch we should hopefully be done with the extreme heat here. A weak front will back in from the northeast later today, bringing some drier air with it (slowly). The front may spark a few isolated showers, but mostly I anticipate mostly sunny skies. Highs today will be in the low- to mid-90s, with northeast winds at about 10 mph. For lower humidity we are going to have to wait for tonight, or Friday morning.

Friday

By or before sunrise a slightly stronger push of drier air should arrive from the northeast, and this now looks set to knock dewpoints down into the 50s during much of the daytime. This will be fairly noticeable. Lows on Friday morning will likely be in the lower 70s for most of the region (so pleasant-ish with the drier air), with daytime highs warming efficiently into the lower 90s. Friday evening should still see lower humidity before dewpoints begin rising late Friday night into Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

Along with a return of humidity, the weekend should bring partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs generally in the lower 90s. There is a slight chance of showers with daytime heating on both days, but I think rain is unlikely. Lows should be in the upper 70s.

Next week

Monday should bring more of the same, but with an approaching upper-level system rain chances and cloud cover should start to increase on Tuesday, with widespread showers likely on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Whether this helps drag a stronger fall front through remains to be determined. But we probably will be in the upper 80s, for highs, regardless with the increased cloud cover. As noted above, our flirtations with triple digit temperatures should finally be over.

In brief: We recap Tuesday’s torrid temperatures, where parts of Houston hit the century mark and talk about how this late September fling with sizzling temperatures should soon start to wane. Next week things start to get even more interesting.

A September to not remember

Houston’s high temperature on Tuesday hit 99 degrees—I mean come on already—at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is just a single, solitary degree short of the all-time record high for the day. We are going to have one more day today in the upper 90s with high humidity, and we will surely give the record high for September 23 (97 degrees) a run for its money. At a time when high temperatures normally start to drift downward to 90 degrees, or even below, we have remained consistently in the mid- to upper-90s. Will summer ever go?

The answer is yes, albeit slowly. We are going to get a weak, backdoor front on Thursday. This will help with humidity a little bit. Then, I’m reasonably confident that we’re going to see another front during the middle of next week, although it remains to be determined in terms of how strong it will be. Regardless I do think that we are just about done with this relentless pattern of daily highs in the upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

But not today. With high pressure still in place, expect a sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper-90s across the region. We could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along with daytime heating, but your overall chances are very low. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 70s in Houston.

Thursday

We will start to see some slightly drier air backdoor into the region from the northeast on Thursday, likely pushing dewpoints into the lower 60s. Daytime highs will still get into the mid-90s, and sunshine will still prevail, but humidity will be a touch lower. This should allow low temperatures on Thursday night to drop into the mid-70s for most of the region.

Friday

With slightly lower humidity, Friday morning should feel pretty pleasant (although certainly not like crisp fall weather). Highs should still reach the low- to mid-90s on Friday, with another modestly cooler night in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs this weekend will generally in the low- to mid-90s with sunny skies and a fair bit of humidity. At least we should be several degrees below record highs. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. Rain chances are near zero, so plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Monday likely brings more of the same, but by Tuesday or Wednesday the breakdown of high pressure and approach of an upper-level low pressure system should bring increased rain chances. This should also bring some more cloud cover, knocking highs down to around 90 degrees. How much rain will we get in the middle of next week? Difficult to say for sure, but probably in the ballpark of 1 to 3 inches. After this some kind of front is likely (we are not 100 percent guaranteeing this yet, sorry) to move into the region. This has a decent chance of bringing us our first nights in the 60s since late spring, but again the details are to be determined. I don’t want to make any false promises.

In brief: In today’s post we check in on the drought status in the Houston region (it’s baaack) and look ahead to next week when the region may see some meaningful relief. Also, are we just about done with highs in the upper 90s? Please?

Drought is back?

Houston has seen its precipitation fortunes wax and wane this summer, with June and most of July bringing widespread showers into the region before very dry conditions across most of the region in August. Much of the area has seen some relief this month (some areas near Sugar Land picked up more than an inch of rain on an otherwise hot and sunny day yesterday), but not everyone.

If we check the US Drought Monitor this week, we can see that some areas near Houston, particularly to the southeast including Clear Lake and all of Galveston county, have slid back into a moderate drought. I don’t expect much relief through the weekend. But what about after that?

There is an increasingly strong signal in the models showing that high pressure will ease away from our region, allowing for atmospheric moisture levels to increase and bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region. We are still about a week out, but right now it does appear as though the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday period of next week will bring a decent shot of rainfall, with the potential for a few inches. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be sunny days, with uncharacteristically hot weather in the mid- to upper 90s for most of the region. We could possibly see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, like the region experienced on Monday, during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. But most of us will probably just see sunshine. Humidity remains high, with warm and sultry nights. Winds will be light, from the east-northeast.

Thursday and Friday

Some slightly drier air will start to arrive later on Thursday. This will not have much impact on daytime temperatures, with highs on both days likely in the mid-90s. However, it should lead to some slightly cooler nights, with lows in the low- to mid-70s and modestly lower humidity. The most noticeable time will be Friday morning. The effect will be subtle, but there. Skies will be sunny, with rain chances near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s for much of Houston. If you have outdoor plans this weekend there should be nothing to worry about except for the heat.

Next week

Monday should bring more of the same before we see high pressure move off, as discussed above. Right now the models are pointing toward Wednesday as having the best chance of rainfall, but it’s difficult to have any precision from this far out. As for temperatures, increased cloud cover and rain should take some of the heat out of daytime highs, possibly pushing us down into the 80s. The pattern will also open up the possibility of a real fall front moving into the region, but as of now I wouldn’t want to try to put a firm date on things. But I do feel pretty confident in saying that we should be done with this mid- to upper-90s malaise that has characterized much of September.

In brief: This week will bring more late-September heat into the region, with plenty of days in the mid- to upper-90s. But there does, finally, appear to be some meaningful change on the horizon for next week. Also, the Atlantic briefly had a chance at its first hurricane on Sunday.

September heat continues

High temperatures on Sunday reached 97 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This was a couple of degrees below the day’s record high of 99 degrees, but well above normal for this time of year. The weekend continued a pattern of warmer-than-normal weather for this month, with temperatures running more than three degrees above normal. It feels pretty relentless.

Alas, this hot late summer heat is going to continue this week, with several more days in the mid- to upper-90s. The continuing heat may lead one to wonder, is this ever going to end? The answer is yes. In fact, I believe this is will be the last full week of truly summer-like weather in Houston, with fall finally showing up on the horizon. More on that below.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

The next three days are going to feel like mid-summer in Houston, with high temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-90s in the city, with only coastal areas likely to be a few degrees cooler. Skies will be mostly sunny. Each afternoon will have a slight chance of showers along with the sea breeze, perhaps in the 10 or 20 percent range. But mostly it’s just going to be summer-like heat, with little reprieve. Winds will generally be light, from the east. Overnight lows will only briefly drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The greater Houston region will miss out on a cold front that will dive into the southeastern United States during the second half of this week, but some slightly drier air may push into the region from the northeast. The effect will be subtle, however. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will still be in the mid-90s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies. Thursday and Friday nights may drop into the mid-70s with slightly lower humidity, but again this will not be a ‘refreshing’ front in any sense of the word.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point the weekend looks mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances are near zero. So if you have outdoor plans they should be good to go, provided you’re mindful of the heat.

Next week

The first few days of next week are likely to see highs in the lower 90s, but at some point we expect to see a pattern change. Since we are more than a week out the details are fuzzy, but my general expectation is that by Tuesday or so we are likely to see increasing rain chances (and yes, we really could use some precipitation) before some cooler and drier air arrives during the second half of next week. How much rain, and how much cooler the air becomes, are details we just cannot know. Since we’re talking about a forecast 8 to 10 days from now we cannot be dead certain in any of this happening, but I have to say, I’m pretty hopeful.

Hurricane season

I’m not quite ready to declare the Texas hurricane season over yet (but do check back on Thursday). However last night there was a little drama in the middle of the Atlantic, with the inconsequential Tropical Storm Fay. It briefly looked as though the little storm (which got up to 70 mph sustained winds) might pulse up to a hurricane. This would have been notable because, to date, there have been precisely zero Atlantic hurricanes. But Fay did not make it, fading to 65 mph winds this morning, and facing higher wind shear levels.