Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains more or less the same, with warming days and nights heading into the weekend, followed by a sharp cooldown on Saturday night. This front will be relatively short-lived, but bring two cold nights into the region.

Wednesday

Lows are about 10 degrees warmer this morning, but this will still be our coolest morning until Monday, probably. Winds are calm, but will be southerly later this morning, indicating the ongoing return of the onshore flow. Highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear today, and remain so for pretty much the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

A similar day to Wednesday, although the southeasterly winds may be slightly more pronounced, and humidity levels a touch higher. Highs, again, will be around 80 degrees, or just a bit warmer. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer days, especially for early November. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 80s across the region, with mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel humid, but not super sultry like the summertime in Houston. Lows will drop into the 60s on both nights, although areas north of I-10 may see cooler temperatures later on Saturday night. That’s because I think the front will reach our northern areas on Saturday evening or night, and push off the coast by around sunrise. This looks like a dry passage, although winds should pretty rapidly shift to come from the north.

Sunday

This will be a breezy, sunny day with highs likely topping out in the lower 70s. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Monday

We are going to see ideal cooling conditions on Monday and Monday night, with lighter winds. Expect highs to perhaps only reach the low- to mid-60s. As for Monday night, temperatures should drop into the 30s to the north of Houston, with a few areas (i.e. Trinity and Polk counties) near but not within the Houston metro area flirting with a light freeze. In Houston itself I think temperatures remain in the vicinity of 40 degrees, but this is likely to be the region’s coldest night of the season.

The rest of next week

Tuesday is likely to bring highs of around 70 degrees before we return to temperatures of around 80 degrees for the rest of the work week. As for rain chances, they’re very low, to zero, for the next 10 days.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s very straightforward forecast, and look ahead to a front this weekend that will bring some (potentially) significantly colder air.

Overall pattern is set

Houston’s forecast is pretty much set for the next week or so. In fact, I would forgive you if you left off checking Space City Weather for a day or two. Really, the only major question I have right now is just how cold temperatures will get early next week, after the arrival of a front next week. The city’s coldest temperature of the fall season, so far, was 47 degrees on Halloween morning. At this time I bet we get colder than that.

Before then we are going to see a gradual warm-up this week, from lows this morning in the vicinity of 50 degrees to lows in the mid-60s this weekend. With high pressure dominating we are going to see mostly sunny to full-on sunny days. We’ll also see gradually more humid air, although nothing oppressive like the region experiences during summer. The front likely arrives on Sunday morning, some time.

Tuesday

Today is going to be an exceptional day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 70s. East winds will shift to come from the south, although remaining fairly light. This is the beginning of the onshore flow, although it will take some time for atmospheric moisture levels to rise. Accordingly humidity will still remain fairly low today. Lows tonight will be warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Over this period our daily high temperatures will gradually rise, from about 80 on Wednesday to the mid-80s by Friday (some areas further inland may push into the upper 80s). Really not much more to say. A couple of afternoons may have some wind gusts up to 15 mph. Evenings and mornings won’t be particularly cool, but it will be mild and pleasant to be outside. I’ll be enjoying them.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will bring more warm weather, not unlike Friday. The models have become a little faster with the timing of the front this weekend, and it now looks as though it will come through on Saturday night or Sunday morning. I’ll remain in the “to be determined” camp until there’s some consistency. At this point I think the front will be a dry passage, so I expect a lot of sunshine on Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 70s, probably? I think conditions will be fairly windy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph, maybe. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, but I’m writing that in pencil.

Next week

At this point I’m leaning into a “short and sharp” characterization of this front. Matt and I had a little discussion this morning about whether this could be described as an “Arctic” front, as it will be bringing a nose of significantly colder air into the eastern half of the United States. I’m going with a “whiff” of Arctic air, because I do think things could get pretty chilly on Monday night. Houston proper probably holds in the 40s somewhere, but I could see upper 30s for inland areas. It depends on how much of the colder air is pushed due south into Texas, or whether it is shunted off more to the east of us. Anyway, there’s the potential for some rather chilly conditions early next week. I do think temperatures will moderate pretty quicky by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however.

In brief: In today’s update we review our warmer than normal October, which ended up tied for the sixth warmest October on record in Houston. We also look ahead to roller-coaster weather this week, with rising temperatures before a front late this weekend.

October review

If you look closely at the chart above, you can see that every daytime temperature in October was warmer than normal until the cold front at the end of the month, which dropped us nicely into fall-like weather. Thanks to this turnaround Houston did not end up with the warmest October in the city’s history. Rather, the average temperature of 76.0 degrees (4.2 degrees above normal) tied for the sixth warmest October on record. Our days were especially warm, averaging 88 degrees across the month, when the normal high is just 82.8 degrees.

Monday

The forecast for this week will be straightforward, with sunny skies expected to prevail from dawn to dusk. The big changes of note will be the return of the onshore flow on Tuesday, and then a front this weekend. Aside from that, everything is small details. Anyway, for today we can expect mild temperatures in the mid-70s, with light easterly winds skies. Skies will be full sunshine. Lows tonight will be similar to those of Sunday night, in the low 50s for most locations, although it will be cooler further inland, and warmer near the coast.

Tuesday

Expect another sunny day, this time with highs in the upper 70s. As winds shift to come from the southeast we will see a warmer night, with most locations dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These days will bring mostly sunny skies and slowly warming conditions. Highs in Wednesday will likely be in the lower 80s, rising to mid- to possibly upper-80s (for a few areas) by the end of the week. With dewpoints solidly in the 60s this weather will feel fairly humid, but not oppressively so. Lows during the second half of the week will only fall into the mid-60s for most locations. Basically, did you like the weather during the second half of October? Because it’s coming back for a couple of days.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be fairly warm (mid- to upper-80s) and mostly sunny. A front is on the way this weekend, but right now the timing is a bit uncertain. I think it probably will arrive sometime during the day on Sunday, and this will impact our temperatures. At this point most of our model guidance indicates a dry passage, but it is possible we see a few very light showers with the front. Anyway, highs on Sunday will probably be somewhere in the low- to mid-80s depending on the timing of the front.

Next week

The first half of next week looks cooler, with highs in 70s and lows probably in the 50s in Houston (40s possible further inland). A warm-up of sorts is possible later next week, possibly into the lower 80s. We’ll see!

In brief: Today’s post discusses what may be our nicest Halloween forecast, ever. We also talk about the potential for some showers on Saturday (more likely closer to the coast), and gradually warming conditions during the second half of next week.

Halloween outlook

I have been writing about the weather in Houston for more than two decades. Almost every year on Halloween there is some concern, be it the potential for rain, or humidity, or winds, or something. This year, we have absolutely zero concerns. Temperatures near sunset? Mild, in the upper 60s. Skies? Clear. Winds? Light, maybe 5 mph from the north. Humidity? Haha, there will be none. Seriously, enjoy the very fine evening.

Friday

We’re starting out with the region’s coldest weather in more than half a year, with much of the area falling into the 40s. Skies will be sunny today, with extraordinarily pleasant highs in the mid-70s, and light winds. Today is one of the region’s top-10 weather days of the year. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than Thursday night as winds shift to come from the southeast. Most of the region will drop into the low- to mid-50s.

Saturday

This will be a bit of a cloudier day, as the onshore flow resumes and moisture returns. The question is, will there be enough moisture to support showers as a reinforcing front pushes into the area? For areas north of Interstate 10, I think the answer is probably not. But for areas along and south of the freeway, especially down closer to the coast, there is perhaps a 40 percent chance of some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I don’t think we are going to see anything severe, but a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-70s, with lows falling into the lower 50s for most.

Sunday

A fine, sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Expect modest northerly winds (nothing like Wednesday) as cooler air from the front arrives. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 50s.

Next week

We’ll be in the 70s for a couple of days next week before a warming trend into the lower 80s. Overnight lows will recover by the second half of the week, likely into the low 60s. Rain chances look low throughout most of the period. It’s possible that a weak front arrives by Friday or Saturday, bringing a bit higher chance of rain, but I don’t have much confidence in the forecast at that point. We’ll be back on Monday with better information—hopefully! Have a great weekend, everyone.

In the spirit of Halloween, a message from Reliant

• Beware the Vampire Power: Halloween isn’t the only time vampires lurk around your home. They can be hiding in your outlets year-round. These “vampire loads” happen when devices like chargers, computers and other electronics draw small amounts of electricity even when turned off. So, does shutting down your computer and phone at night really help? Yes! Restarting them in the morning uses only a tiny amount of energy compared to leaving them plugged in overnight. To keep those energy-sucking vampires at bay, unplug chargers or use a smart power strip to fully cut power. Savings may be modest, but it’s a small step toward a more energy-conscious home.
• A Smarter Way to Scare (and Save): Reliant’s Smarter Home Bundle brings energy efficiency and security together, perfect for those eerie doorbell recordings when trick-or-treaters come calling this Friday. With Vivint’s smart technology, you can monitor your home, manage energy use and even catch those costumed creatures on camera. And don’t miss the limited-edition spooky Halloween Chimes available this week for the Doorbell Camera Pro! Spooky laugh, witch laugh, howling and more!