Eric Berger

In brief: Good morning, and we hope you have a meaningful Veterans Day. In today’s post we discuss the significant rainfall picked up by the Houston region to start the week; and we have some good news if you’re tired of the dreary weather.

A pair of dreary days, but that’s OK

The rain is not for everyone—there have been a few grumbles in my house this week about gray skies and precipitation—but the dreary start to this week has provided some welcome relief to Houston-area soils. Much of the region is in a drought, and our coastal counties including Galveston and Brazoria have slipped into an extreme drought after a very dry late summer and start to fall.

The rains over the last couple of days won’t end the drought. But at this time of year a bit of rain goes a long way with the shorter days, lower sun angle, and cooler temperatures. Over the last two days the drier parts of our region, along and south of Interstate 10, generally picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain. The widespread showers mostly came in the form of gentle rain, although we definitely had some rumbling thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper-level system passed nearby.

These showers were over-performers as at the start of the week I would have predicted maybe a few tenths of an inch of rain, at most, over Monday and Tuesday. But I’m definitely not complaining. And hey, if you’re sick of the rain it largely ends this morning. And we’ll have wall-to-wall sunshine and generally gorgeous weather on Thursday and Friday. So this week Mother Nature has a little something for everyone.

Wednesday

Rain showers have largely exited to the east, but we may see a few sporadic showers pop up later this morning on Veterans Day. Call it about a 10 or 20 percent chance. Skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy today, however, with moderately sticky humidity. Expect highs in the upper 70s. Winds will shift to come from the north tonight as a cold front moves in, bringing drier air Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of splendid days with mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the upper 70s. Thursday could be a little breezy, with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph, but this front does not appear to be too in-your-face in terms of winds. Lows on both nights should drop into the mid-50s in Houston proper, with upper 40s possible for outlying areas. This, for my money, is the best of fall weather we see down here.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see partly to mostly sunny skies as well. Expect highs in the mid-70s with modest humidity levels. However by Saturday afternoon or (more likely) Saturday evening or overnight we will see the return of some rain chances due to increasing moisture levels in the upper atmosphere. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

We’ve still got a fair bit of uncertainty about conditions on Sunday. Highs will likely be in the low 70s with a mix of clouds and sunshine. I think we’ll see about a 50 percent chance of rain, but again I don’t feel super confident in the details. If you have outdoor plans, give us another day or so to pin down this forecast with a little more accuracy. At some point (on Sunday night, maybe?) a cold front is going to push into the region and this may be the spark for some additional showers. For now I don’t anticipate any severe weather with the front.

Next week

In the wake of this front, generally, we can expect a couple of cooler days with highs likely in the 60s and lows in the 50s. We probably will see some sort of warming trend heading toward next weekend. Maybe I’ll be brave tomorrow and push out a way, way too early forecast for Thanksgiving week in Houston.

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the sublime (for some!) weather Houston experienced on Monday, and why there may be a few more rainy and cooler days in the week ahead. But don’t worry sunshine fans, we also have some splendid, sunny days ahead with low humidity.

Why did we begin our fundraiser this week?

We hold our annual fundraiser in November, because it is typically a quiet weather month. Matt and I very deliberately don’t seek any donations during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season because we don’t want to appear as though we are trying to capitalize on bad weather. But just know that if you support the site now, you’re ensuring that we can provide quality information year-round, in the good weather times, and in the inevitably bad weather times. Click here if you would like to support the site!

A cool, rainy Monday

For central and southern areas of Houston Monday was a strange day, the likes of which we almost never experience here. Typically, when it rains in Houston we get storms. When there’s lighter rain, it often starts and stops quickly. But not on Monday. Central and southern parts of the region (sorry, Montgomery County, you missed the party) saw on-and-off light rain showers the entire day. Slow-and-steady rain is just not something we seem to get all that often here.

And then there were the temperatures, which for most of the day hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s. If you’re from Seattle, you’re probably thinking it was pretty miserable. But if you’re from Houston, having just gone through six months of frequently hot and sunny weather, the conditions on Monday felt otherworldly. Maybe you hated it? If so, let us know in the comments.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, but perhaps not quite so Seattle-like. We’ll be a little warmer, with highs around 70 degrees, give or take. We may see a little sunshine. But once again we are going to see showers moving in from the southwest later this morning. Yesterday the showers over-performed expectations a little bit (over time some locations picked up as much as 0.5 inch). I could see the same thing happening today, although I’m far from confident. Scattered light to moderate rains will continue overnight, with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-70s. At this point I think shower activity on Tuesday night, to the extent it exists across Houston, will move offshore as low pressure moves away from the area. Accordingly I think rain chances on Wednesday after sunrise should be 10 percent, or less. A weak front arrives on Wednesday night, with drier air following into the region early on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of splendid days with highs in the mid- to upper-70s, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows on both nights should drop into the low- to mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Fall rarely gets better than this.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be similar to the previous days, albeit with slightly more humidity as the onshore flow resumes. Highs may also be a few degrees cooler. By Sunday we could see more clouds, and highs in the 60s. Rain chances may also return Sunday as another low pressure system returns to the area. In other words, Seattle, again? We shall see.

Next week

Fall like weather continues next week, with highs likely slotting somewhere in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The details are pretty fuzzy, so I’ll just leave things there.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Monday’s rain chances with an area of storms inbound from the southwest. We also look ahead to some of the region’s coldest nights of the season and a pleasant weekend. Finally, today Space City Weather is kicking off its annual fundraiser. Your support is appreciated!

Our annual fundraiser is now live

It’s that time of year. Every November, for three weeks, Matt and I launch a fundraiser during which readers can donate to the website and buy merchandise to directly support our efforts. Your support keeps the lights on at Space City Weather, helps us with the never-ending task of keeping our app current, and helps make everything we do free for everyone, and completely independent.

We’ll have more to say about the fundraiser in the coming days, but for now, you can jump right over to our landing page with more information. Thank you!

Monday

Sunday’s high temperature in Houston reached 66 degrees, our coolest daytime since mid-April. Today will be similar, with mostly cloudy skies helping to keep highs in the mid-60s. These clouds are being driven by a low pressure system in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere, and this pattern should persist through tonight before the upper-level system slides off to the east.

The main question today is whether the Houston region will see some rain. This morning, around sunrise, there is a large area of showers and thunderstorms stretching from Victoria to El Campo, to the southwest of the Houston region. These showers are moving toward Houston, and should reach areas such as Sugar Land and Katy by mid-morning. The rains will gradually spread across the entire region later today, but they will lose some of their intensity as they get closer to the city. Overall most of the area will likely see one- or two tenths of an inch of rain today (less for areas north and east of Houston), with isolated areas picking up more.

Light rain chances persist this evening. Low temperatures tonight will again drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Tuesday

This will be a partly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s for most locations with very light northerly winds. There will be a slight chance of light rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the lower 60s.

Wednesday

This slight chance of rain will persist into Veterans Day on Wednesday, but I’m hopeful it won’t be too disruptive for remembrances. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs likely in the upper 70s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the lower 60s. At some point on Wednesday night, probably after midnight, a cool front will push into the region. I don’t think it will bring any precipitation with it.

Thursday and Friday

These should be mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. The air will be quite dry, and on Thursday we may see some northerly wind gusts of about 20 mph before things calm down. Lows on Thursday and Friday nights will be chilly in Houston, with temperatures likely dropping into the low- to mid-50s. Outlying areas should see some readings in the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 70s, probably. We’ll see a gradual warming trend as the onshore flow resumes. Nights will be several degrees warmer, but should still feel “cool” in the upper 50s. With the onshore flow we may start to see some lower-end rain chances on Sunday or Sunday night. We’ll keep an eye on those rain chances to see how they develop.

Next week

Overall conditions look fairly mild next week. We probably are in a pattern where highs are in the 70s, and lows in the 50s or 60s, with nothing too extreme. Don’t look now but we’re only two weeks away from the start of Thanksgiving week.

In brief: Houston is enjoying significantly cooler temperatures this morning, in the 50s, with lower humidity. November-like weather should now persist for awhile across the region. The biggest forecast question is whether the atmosphere will line up to support rain showers this weekend, or not.

A sustained pattern change

A cold front arrived on Tuesday, on schedule, bringing much needed rainfall to the Houston region. Not everyone benefitted, but a solid chunk of our area picked up at least 0.5 inch, and some locations received 1 inch or more. Our region’s drought is not over, but these rains (and maybe more in the coming days) should tide us over until the winter, when El Niño should bring us a wetter pattern overall.

In terms of temperatures, Tuesday felt incredibly muggy on Tuesday, and we hit 88 degrees. It tied a record high for this date, so yeah, it was incredibly sultry for early November. This was due in part to a fair amount of sunshine, but also a feature known as compressional heating. Effectively, the front compressed and heated the air ahead of it as it advanced upon Houston.

But now, it’s gone. We may get back close to 80 degrees for highs on Thursday and Friday of this week, but for the most part I expect our highs to be in the 70s, and lows in the 50s through next week. Super nice!

Prediction context

Now that we’re getting deeper into fall and closer to winter, I wanted to provide an update on a prediction contest we announced way back in March. We were having our last really cold night of the season (the temperature hit 33 degrees in Houston) then and I asked you to predict when we might get that cold again. We haven’t gotten close yet to 33 degrees, and I don’t see any likelihood of it for the next two weeks. But I did want you to know I haven’t forgotten about this, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on things!

Wednesday

Today will be gorgeous in Houston. No notes. Expect highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow resumes early Thursday, and this will allow temperatures to push into the upper 70s on Thursday, with a little bit more humidity. Skies will be mostly sunny. Another front will push through on Thursday night, and there is a slight chance of rain with this as it moves into Houston (but probably not, as there just isn’t that much moisture to work with). We should see modestly drier air on Friday, with highs in the upper 70s, and lows Friday night around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Humidity levels will continue to fall this weekend, but I’m still having some trouble pinpointing down the forecast. Temperature-wise, I’m pretty confident in highs in the lower 70s on Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the 50s on Sunday morning. By Sunday we should max out in the 60s for high temperatures.

The thing I’m struggling with is rain chances due to the potential for a low pressure system in the atmosphere to pass nearby. A lot of the modeling keeps it pretty far away, but some of the AI guidance brings it closer to southeast Texas. For now I’m going to go with a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and 40 percent chance on Sunday, but we could just as easily see a couple of partly sunny days with no rain this weekend, or more widespread showers on Sunday. Matt will be along with posts on Thursday and Friday to hopefully sort this out.

Next week

I think Sunday and Monday nights will see some of our coldest temperatures of the season so far, with much of Houston falling down near 50 degrees, and areas further inland likely getting into the 40s. After this we should see a slow warming trend next week, but will likely remain in the 70s/50s pattern through Thursday or Friday, at least. There’s also the possibility that rain chances start to improve later next week, but I am making zero promises there.