Eric Berger

In brief: Fall arrived this weekend, and our weather was certainly gorgeous. Now that we’ve taken the sting out of summer, is there anything to be done about our growing need for rainfall?

A dry fall

For much of the Houston region it has been a dry end of summer and start to fall. This is particularly the case for regions south and east of Houston, where meaningful precipitation has been extremely scarce. Over the last 60 days, since mid-August, most of this area has received well below 50 percent of its normal rainfall, and the last 30 days have seen almost nothing. Meanwhile some locations in the greater Houston region, such as the western part of the metro area, are probably thinking, what is this guy talking about it?

As a result of this, despite the shorter days, we have seen drought return to Houston. The majority of Brazoria county, as well as chunks of Liberty and Chambers counties, have sunk into a severe drought. Much of the rest of the metro Houston area has reached a moderate drought level. With virtually no rain expected over at least the next 10 days, I fear we could see more of Houston reach ‘severe’ drought status.

An El Niño weather pattern is supposed to bring generally wetter conditions across Texas during the winter months, and we are likely to end up needing it given the state of our soils heading toward November.

Monday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with winds shifting to come from the east. Expect highs in the upper 70s for the most part. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s. With dewpoints hovering in the 50s, the air will continue to feel pleasantly dry outside.

Tuesday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. It may feel slightly more humid, and overnight lows probably will only drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

As the flow turns more northeasterly we should see moderately warm days, in the 80s, with slightly cooler nights. Lows are to be determined, but I expect most of the region to drop down to around 60 degrees each night during this period. Skies will be mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast looks warm-ish, with highs likely in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly sunny skies. Nights should fall into the lower 60s. Dewpoints remain comfortable, such that Houston’s air is unlikely to feel too dry or too humid.

Next week

This pattern should continue into next week, after which time we may start to see a little more humidity. As for rain, which we discussed above, chances look minimal for the next week at least. Perhaps the next time to hope for something is the weekend after next; right around or just after Halloween. We shall see.

In brief: In today’s post I make a bold prediction about Houston’s weather for the rest of the year. Also, temperatures continue to trend downward for the weekend, as the cold front looks even more robust. But do be mindful of strong winds on Friday afternoon, evening, and overnight.

So long, 90s?

Culturally, the 90s are probably my favorite decade: Super Nintendo, burning CDs, Seinfeld, the last decade before social media and screens began to take over, the end of the Cold War, and so much more. It felt like a much simpler time. But I digress—the 90s are great for a decade, but not so much for temperatures. And we’ve had a lot of them this year, 128 days and counting in Houston. Now that we’re in mid-October, shouldn’t we be saying sayonara to the 90s?

We should, and hopefully we will. I think there’s a decent chance that today is the final 90-degree day in Houston for the calendar year 2026. I cannot make this a locked-in guarantee. Houston has been known to reach highs of 90 degrees all the way through October. But we’re only a couple of weeks from that date, and we are running out of opportunities.

We are going to cool down very nicely this weekend, and at least some lingering effects from the front will last into early next week. Then we’re going to have a period from about Wednesday into next weekend when I think there’s a chance for us to reach the upper 80s, or possibly 90 degrees. But the modeling is far from certain about this, and I believe it’s just as likely that we stay comfortably cooler than that. So my bold and hopeful prediction is that after today, we’re done with 90s in Houston.

Thursday

As noted above, we’ve got one more warm-to-hot day today, with partly sunny skies and highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. It will be fairly humid, but not as oppressively so as earlier in the week. There is about a 10 percent chance of a stray shower passing over, but it would be brief. Lows tonight will again drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Friday

We’ll start out somewhat muggy, but by around 6 to 9 am we are going to see winds shift to come from the north pretty sharply. This is likely to be a truly in-your-face front with the abrupt wind shift. Humidity will drop some initially, and then much drier air will follow during the early afternoon hours. I think it is possible that we’ll see some scattered showers along and ahead of the front, but probably nothing too serious. In terms of highs, I expect much of Houston to remain in the 70s on Friday, and some inland areas might even fall into the 60s during the afternoon hours. (Yeah, folks, it’s quite a front in terms of temperatures).

A notable thing to look out for is gusty winds. I’ve been talking about these for most of the week, but we could see gusts on Friday afternoon and Friday evening up to about 35 to 40 mph in Houston, with even higher gusts along the coastline later on. Lows on Friday night also look to be lower than previously expected, probably in the lower 50s for much of the region away from the immediate coast.

Saturday

It’s going to start out chilly, especially with northerly winds continuing to blow through the morning hours at about 15 mph, gusting up to 25 mph. For some inland areas, with the winds, it could briefly “feel” like temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning. However winds should start to slacken during the afternoon hours. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with sunny skies. As winds die down, we should see an even cooler night on Saturday, with lows in neighborhood of 50 degrees in Houston, and potentially the upper 40s for some inland areas.

Sunday

This will be another sunny day, but with lower winds. Expect highs in the mid-70s and low humidity. This will be one of the 10 finest weather days of the year in Houston. Enjoy!

Next week

This front now appears to have more sticking power than thought, so we’re not going to warm up too abruptly next week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s, and I think most of next week should bring highs in the low- to mid-80s. Lows will be in the 60s. There will be a smattering of rain chances, but nothing I can point to with any confidence.

In brief: In today’s post we look ahead to Friday’s front, and just how low temperatures may drop on Saturday night. It is not out of the realm of possibility that lows reach 50 degrees, or below, for inland parts of the Houston region.

Houston’s last sub-50 degree night?

It has been a long time since it felt chilly outside in Houston. Like, a really long time. The last morning the temperature in Houston officially fell below 50 degrees outside came all the way back on March 19, when the low at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 49 degrees during the morning hours. So it has been nearly seven months or 208 days.

I am not guaranteeing Houston will record a sub-50 degree night this weekend. But I do think it is possible. If such a reading comes, it would do so early on Sunday morning, around or before sunrise. Some of our guidance predicts low temperatures in Houston in the mid-50s. However, I believe there is probably at least a 50 percent chance that our lows on Sunday morning reach 50 degrees, or below, for inland areas, including the majority of the region along and north of I-10.

This will be a relatively short-lived front. Dewpoints by Monday or Tuesday will really start to recover, returning us to humid conditions. But for mid-October what is ahead will be a fairly potent front, and a reminder that although fall has arrived late here, winter is not too far around the corner.

Wednesday

But before we get to the front we have to contend with some stupidly high humidity for another day or so. The low temperature at Hobby Airport this morning is 78 degrees, and the dewpoint is 78 degrees. (I know this because I checked our app, which I encourage you to do as well!) It is, umm, fairly gross outside, especially for mid-October.

Some slight change is on the way, however. By this afternoon dewpoints should start falling a few degrees, and this will make for slightly lower humidity. We also will see a mix of clouds and sunshine this morning, with the afternoon likely turning more sunny. Highs will reach about 90 degrees in Houston, or slightly higher for inland areas. There is perhaps a 20 percent chance of rain. Lows tonight will fall into the low- to mid-70s thanks to the slightly lower dewpoints.

Thursday

Welcome to the cold front waiting room, and please take a seat. This will be another hot day, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Skies will be mostly sunny with only a slight chance of showers. Lows on Thursday night should fall into the lower 70s.

Friday

Front day, finally!

We’ll start out fairly warm and muggy, but by mid-morning winds should pick up out of the north at 15 to 20 mph. We cannot rule out some showers ahead of the front, but as of now they appear unlikely. Friday will be a windy day, with gusts out of the north up to about 30 mph in Houston, and higher gusts along the coast. This will be bringing much drier air into the region. Highs on Friday will likely peak in the lower 80s, with partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in Houston on Friday night will probably range from the mid-50s to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

We’ll continue to see somewhat gusty conditions early on Saturday, but these winds should die down during the daytime. After that we’ll be left with a lovely, sunny day with highs in the … 70s?!? Yes, I think it’s possible that highs on Saturday will not get much above the lower 70s, which would be amazing. As noted above, lows on Saturday night have the potential to fall to around 50 degrees in parts of the metro area, if not lower. We shall see.

Sunday

This should be another great, sunny day with highs in the upper 70s, probably. Lows on Sunday night probably will fall to around 60.

Next week

I don’t have a great handle on weather next week. We probably are looking at something like highs in the upper 80s, lows in the 70s, plenty of humidity and improving rain chances.

In brief: We discuss the (fairly slim) possibility of showers today, and then look ahead to a cold front on Friday that will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures into Houston. Saturday night will be the coldest night, and we think most of the region drops into the 50s.

Tuesday

The atmosphere above our region today is holding a lot of moisture, but conditions are such that we are unlikely to see too much lifting of air near the surface to higher levels. So what does this mean? It means we are going to see plenty of humidity today. We also might see some scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms, but I think the majority of this activity will remain offshore.

High temperatures today will reach about 90 degrees. We are not in record high territory here (today’s record high is 95 degrees) but we are nonetheless running several degrees warmer than is typical during mid-October. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with winds picking up a bit this afternoon to gust above 20 mph. Lows tonight, due to the muggy conditions, will not drop much beyond the upper 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

The good news is this: On Wednesday we are going to see some slightly drier air filter in from the east. Now, to be clear, it will still feel fairly humid. But not as bad as Tuesday. Additionally, this modestly drier air should allow nighttime temperatures to fall into the lower 70s. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should still reach about 90 degrees, however, with mostly sunny skies. Could we see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms? Yes, but overall chances are very low.

Friday

This should be a mostly sunny day. At some point, probably around noon-ish, a fairly strong front will move into the region. I think we are unlikely to see any precipitation with the front. Highs should still reach the upper 80s for most of the region, but by Friday afternoon or evening we should start to see the influx of much drier air. During this time frame we will also see gusty winds from the north, probably up to about 30 mph in Houston, and up to 40 mph at the immediate coastline. These winds will peak on Friday night before slowly settling down on Saturday.

Saturday

I think most of the Houston region will start out Saturday morning at about 60 degrees, give or take, with drastically lower humidity. Highs on Saturday afternoon will probably peak in the low- to mid-70s, before we see ideal conditions for cooling on Saturday night. How cold will things get? My best guess is that most of the Houston region (aside from Galveston Island and other coastal areas) will probably get into the 50s. There’s still some uncertainty, but I think a good range is somewhere between 50 and 60 degrees for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. By this time our winds will have died down some, but it’s still going to feel rather chilly outside for the first time in nearly half a year.

Sunday

I expect a sunny day with highs of around 80 degrees. As the onshore flow resumes, we will see a warmer night, although temperatures probably will still be in the 60s for most locations.

Next week

Warmer conditions will return with the southerly flow, with highs likely recovering into the mid- to upper-80s for much of next week, at least. We will also probably see some cloudy skies along with higher rain chances beginning Monday or Tuesday. Some areas (particularly southeast of Houston) have not have significant rain in many weeks. It would be welcome, for sure.