Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s forecast finally has some healthy rain chances in it, which marks a notable change from the last several weeks (months for some locations). We also look ahead to notably cooler weather arriving in Houston about one week from today.

Wednesday

Houston broke its multi-day streak of sunny days on Tuesday with mostly cloudy conditions. Some areas even saw some light precipitation. These conditions combined to keep highs below 80 degrees for most of the region, including our official high of just 74 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Today will be somewhat similar, we think. We could see a smattering of rain showers again, and there will be some clouds. However I think there will be a little more sunshine, and this should help nudge high temperatures back up toward 80 degrees. Low temperatures will probably drop into the mid-60s tonight, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a straightforward forecast, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. With moderate winds turning easterly we should see an influx of some slightly drier air, and this will bring humidity levels down a bit. Lows on Thursday night should again drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

By mid-day Friday we should start to see rising moisture levels in the atmosphere again, and this will increase both humidity and rain chances. The most likely period of rain will come between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, with overall chances probably around 50 percent for most locations. Amounts do not look super impressive, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Highs on both days will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with warm nights in the upper 60s. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy, with a fair amount of humidity. I do expect the showers to end, or be ending by late Saturday afternoon or early evening, so you should see fair conditions in the upper 70s during the trick-or-treating hour.

Sunday and Monday

To end the weekend and start next week I expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-80s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel pretty muggy outside as well.

Later next week

By Tuesday or more probably Tuesday night we should see the arrival of the region’s next real cold front, and by all accounts this one should have some staying power. We may well see some showers and thunderstorms with the front’s passage. After this we are going to see significantly cooler weather, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and lows in the 50s or possibly even 40s for some inland locations. This cooler air could stick around through next weekend. All of the details on this front are to be determined still, but a significant pattern change does legitimately appear to be on the way.

In brief: Houston will have some chances for spotty showers today, and then again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may come around a week from today, when the region’s next cold front comes barreling through.

Tuesday

If one checks the Houston radar this morning there are actual rain showers there, but they are pretty far from the city, down near Port Lavaca and Indianola. They are slowly moving to the northeast, toward Matagorda. Could we see some of this activity eventually spill into the city of Houston later today? Possibly, but I would only rate rain chances for most of us in Harris and surrounding counties at 10 or 20 percent. However an increase in atmospheric moisture should lead to at least a partly cloudy day, a change from the full sunshine we’ve been experiencing. Expect highs of around 80 degrees. Lows tonight will be warmer, in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This should be a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances will again be in the vicinity of 10 or 20 percent in the Houston region later in the day. Expect lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday

Thursday starts out mostly sunny, and we should see highs generally in the lower 80s. We may briefly see a northeasterly flow on Thursday that will allow for some drier air to move into the region. After a humidity rise on Tuesday and Wednesday, this could briefly bring it back down to more comfortable levels on Thursday evening and overnight. My sense is this could allow lows to drop into the lower 60s in Houston on Thursday night, but we shall see.

Friday and Saturday

Atmospheric moisture levels will recover sometime on Friday, and the extent to which moisture levels rise is key to whether we see much rain on Friday or Halloween. Highs Friday will be about 80 degrees, with sunny skies. We may see a 20 percent chance of rain during the afternoon or evening hours. On Saturday there may be a few more clouds, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances could be as high as 40 percent on Saturday. I expect any shower activity (if it does materialize) will probably be gone by late Saturday afternoon, so I don’t anticipate too many issues with trick-or-treating.

Sunday

This looks like a warm-ish day for early November, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Next week

We’ll remain in a warm, mid-80s pattern to start next week. At some point, perhaps later on Tuesday, Tuesday night, or early Wednesday, a fair strong cold front should move into the region. There is a pretty decent chance this front will bring some showers and thunderstorms with it, ushering in some much needed rainfall. It is still too early to have full confidence in meaningful precipitation, but I’m hopeful. Post-front, I expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for at least a few days next week. Details on all of this to come!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s typical high temperatures on Halloween, and what conditions will be like this year. Also, is there another decently strong cold front coming through any time soon?

Halloween highs

The first thing to know about temperatures in Houston on Halloween is that they bounce around a lot. At this time of year we can still feel almost summer-like outside, and we can get some really robust cold fronts. The historical range of highs on October 31 in Houston runs from a low maximum temperature of 47 degrees (set in 1925) to 88 degrees (2004).

Over the last century, the average high temperature has trended about 1 to 2 degrees warmer. Normal highs are now in the upper 70s. This year will be on the warmer side, with highs likely in the low- to mid-80s. I don’t think we’ll approach the the record high of 88 degrees, but it will feel fairly muggy outside. Anyway, by trick-or-treating time temperatures should have fallen into the upper 70s, so it will be pretty comfortable unless you’ve got a warm, woolly costume.

Speaking of Halloween, I had a Vivint doorbell installed last year, and we’ve been having great fun here with Halloween chimes to surprise unsuspecting visitors. Changing the chimes is super easy to do.

Monday

Broadly speaking, Houston’s weather for the next week or so will be warmer, and a bit more humid. Today will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be from the east at about 5 to 10 mph. Humidity levels will be modest. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With dewpoints recovering into the 60s, these days will both see a few more clouds and somewhat higher humidity. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances over Houston will be about 20 percent on Tuesday, but areas southwest of the Houston region, toward Matagorda Bay, have a better chance, perhaps 40 percent or higher. Nights become warmer and muggier, in the upper 60s.

Thursday

Some slightly drier air may work its way into our region on Thursday, allowing for a slight dip in humidity. Expect highs in the lower 80s, with nighttime lows in the mid-60s.

Friday and Saturday

Both of these days should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. I expect humidity levels to rise back up some. It won’t be oppressively humid, but it will feel humid for late October. Rain chances on both days are about 30 percent, but I want to see a little more data before having confidence in a precipitation forecast. In the big picture, however, overall chances are trending down, which is good for trick-or-treaters, but bad for our region’s drying soils.

Sunday, Monday, and next week

The early part of next week looks warm and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. If that sounds uncharacteristically warm for early November, you’re correct. However the forecast models are continuing to suggest that a decently strong fall front will arrive seven to nine days from now, perhaps around next Tuesday, with a solid chance of precipitation accompanying it. We can hope.

In brief: Given Houston’s ongoing sunny forecast, we take a trip into the future in today’s post and offer you with a way-too-early forecast for Halloween in Houston. Also, don’t sleep on our weather today: It looks absolutely lovely across the region.

An early peek at a spooky day

Halloween is now nine days away, and it is one day a year when a lot of people congregate outside during the evening hours. For the kids, it’s a mad dash for candy. For the adults, it’s a chance to see one’s neighbors. And for the mosquitoes? Well, let’s not talk about that.

So what will the weather be like this year? As always the usual caveats apply to a forecast this far out, but I am reasonably confident it will not be a cold Halloween. The high temperature will probably be between 75 and 85 degrees, with the most likely temperature around 80. Given this, I would expect lows on Halloween evening (a Saturday this year) to be in the 70s. So all in all, pretty mild.

The bigger question (and concern) is rain. After a very, very dry pattern in terms of rainfall, we are likely to see a pattern change toward the end of next week. Some models rate the best chances on Friday, others on Saturday or Sunday. But at this point I would have a solidly 50 percent chance of rain for Halloween. What I don’t know is whether rain is more likely during the morning, daytime, or evening.

So you’ll have to check the Halloween forecast Now and Later.

Thursday

Today is going to be a rather nice day. We’ll have sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-80s. We are going to experience our lowest humidity of the next 10 days this afternoon. Winds will be light, from the northeast. And then lows tonight will drop to around 55 to 60 degrees in Houston, with temperatures in the 50s for outlying areas.

Friday

This day will bring more of the same, but with slightly higher humidity and nighttime lows on Friday night a few degrees warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The sunshine party continues, with highs generally in the lower 80s. But there are some differences from the previous days. Winds on Saturday will be fairly strong from the southeast, gusting up to 20 mph or so, and this will nudge humidity levels up a bit. As a result our nighttime lows will warm into the mid-60s. And this modest onshore flow should start to bring some clouds back into the area later on Sunday.

Next week

Most of next week should bring partly cloudy skies, with highs around 80 degrees, give or take. Nights look mild, in the low- to mid-60s. I know a lot of our area desperately needs rain. There’s a chance of something happening on Tuesday, but the better rain chances probably will have to wait until Friday or Saturday of next week. If you’re wondering when the region’s next strong-ish cool front might arrive, I don’t see much chance of that before the first week of November.