Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s very straightforward forecast, and look ahead to a front this weekend that will bring some (potentially) significantly colder air.

Overall pattern is set

Houston’s forecast is pretty much set for the next week or so. In fact, I would forgive you if you left off checking Space City Weather for a day or two. Really, the only major question I have right now is just how cold temperatures will get early next week, after the arrival of a front next week. The city’s coldest temperature of the fall season, so far, was 47 degrees on Halloween morning. At this time I bet we get colder than that.

Before then we are going to see a gradual warm-up this week, from lows this morning in the vicinity of 50 degrees to lows in the mid-60s this weekend. With high pressure dominating we are going to see mostly sunny to full-on sunny days. We’ll also see gradually more humid air, although nothing oppressive like the region experiences during summer. The front likely arrives on Sunday morning, some time.

Tuesday

Today is going to be an exceptional day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 70s. East winds will shift to come from the south, although remaining fairly light. This is the beginning of the onshore flow, although it will take some time for atmospheric moisture levels to rise. Accordingly humidity will still remain fairly low today. Lows tonight will be warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Over this period our daily high temperatures will gradually rise, from about 80 on Wednesday to the mid-80s by Friday (some areas further inland may push into the upper 80s). Really not much more to say. A couple of afternoons may have some wind gusts up to 15 mph. Evenings and mornings won’t be particularly cool, but it will be mild and pleasant to be outside. I’ll be enjoying them.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will bring more warm weather, not unlike Friday. The models have become a little faster with the timing of the front this weekend, and it now looks as though it will come through on Saturday night or Sunday morning. I’ll remain in the “to be determined” camp until there’s some consistency. At this point I think the front will be a dry passage, so I expect a lot of sunshine on Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 70s, probably? I think conditions will be fairly windy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph, maybe. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, but I’m writing that in pencil.

Next week

At this point I’m leaning into a “short and sharp” characterization of this front. Matt and I had a little discussion this morning about whether this could be described as an “Arctic” front, as it will be bringing a nose of significantly colder air into the eastern half of the United States. I’m going with a “whiff” of Arctic air, because I do think things could get pretty chilly on Monday night. Houston proper probably holds in the 40s somewhere, but I could see upper 30s for inland areas. It depends on how much of the colder air is pushed due south into Texas, or whether it is shunted off more to the east of us. Anyway, there’s the potential for some rather chilly conditions early next week. I do think temperatures will moderate pretty quicky by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however.

In brief: In today’s update we review our warmer than normal October, which ended up tied for the sixth warmest October on record in Houston. We also look ahead to roller-coaster weather this week, with rising temperatures before a front late this weekend.

October review

If you look closely at the chart above, you can see that every daytime temperature in October was warmer than normal until the cold front at the end of the month, which dropped us nicely into fall-like weather. Thanks to this turnaround Houston did not end up with the warmest October in the city’s history. Rather, the average temperature of 76.0 degrees (4.2 degrees above normal) tied for the sixth warmest October on record. Our days were especially warm, averaging 88 degrees across the month, when the normal high is just 82.8 degrees.

Monday

The forecast for this week will be straightforward, with sunny skies expected to prevail from dawn to dusk. The big changes of note will be the return of the onshore flow on Tuesday, and then a front this weekend. Aside from that, everything is small details. Anyway, for today we can expect mild temperatures in the mid-70s, with light easterly winds skies. Skies will be full sunshine. Lows tonight will be similar to those of Sunday night, in the low 50s for most locations, although it will be cooler further inland, and warmer near the coast.

Tuesday

Expect another sunny day, this time with highs in the upper 70s. As winds shift to come from the southeast we will see a warmer night, with most locations dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These days will bring mostly sunny skies and slowly warming conditions. Highs in Wednesday will likely be in the lower 80s, rising to mid- to possibly upper-80s (for a few areas) by the end of the week. With dewpoints solidly in the 60s this weather will feel fairly humid, but not oppressively so. Lows during the second half of the week will only fall into the mid-60s for most locations. Basically, did you like the weather during the second half of October? Because it’s coming back for a couple of days.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be fairly warm (mid- to upper-80s) and mostly sunny. A front is on the way this weekend, but right now the timing is a bit uncertain. I think it probably will arrive sometime during the day on Sunday, and this will impact our temperatures. At this point most of our model guidance indicates a dry passage, but it is possible we see a few very light showers with the front. Anyway, highs on Sunday will probably be somewhere in the low- to mid-80s depending on the timing of the front.

Next week

The first half of next week looks cooler, with highs in 70s and lows probably in the 50s in Houston (40s possible further inland). A warm-up of sorts is possible later next week, possibly into the lower 80s. We’ll see!

In brief: Today’s post discusses what may be our nicest Halloween forecast, ever. We also talk about the potential for some showers on Saturday (more likely closer to the coast), and gradually warming conditions during the second half of next week.

Halloween outlook

I have been writing about the weather in Houston for more than two decades. Almost every year on Halloween there is some concern, be it the potential for rain, or humidity, or winds, or something. This year, we have absolutely zero concerns. Temperatures near sunset? Mild, in the upper 60s. Skies? Clear. Winds? Light, maybe 5 mph from the north. Humidity? Haha, there will be none. Seriously, enjoy the very fine evening.

Friday

We’re starting out with the region’s coldest weather in more than half a year, with much of the area falling into the 40s. Skies will be sunny today, with extraordinarily pleasant highs in the mid-70s, and light winds. Today is one of the region’s top-10 weather days of the year. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than Thursday night as winds shift to come from the southeast. Most of the region will drop into the low- to mid-50s.

Saturday

This will be a bit of a cloudier day, as the onshore flow resumes and moisture returns. The question is, will there be enough moisture to support showers as a reinforcing front pushes into the area? For areas north of Interstate 10, I think the answer is probably not. But for areas along and south of the freeway, especially down closer to the coast, there is perhaps a 40 percent chance of some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I don’t think we are going to see anything severe, but a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-70s, with lows falling into the lower 50s for most.

Sunday

A fine, sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Expect modest northerly winds (nothing like Wednesday) as cooler air from the front arrives. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 50s.

Next week

We’ll be in the 70s for a couple of days next week before a warming trend into the lower 80s. Overnight lows will recover by the second half of the week, likely into the low 60s. Rain chances look low throughout most of the period. It’s possible that a weak front arrives by Friday or Saturday, bringing a bit higher chance of rain, but I don’t have much confidence in the forecast at that point. We’ll be back on Monday with better information—hopefully! Have a great weekend, everyone.

In the spirit of Halloween, a message from Reliant

• Beware the Vampire Power: Halloween isn’t the only time vampires lurk around your home. They can be hiding in your outlets year-round. These “vampire loads” happen when devices like chargers, computers and other electronics draw small amounts of electricity even when turned off. So, does shutting down your computer and phone at night really help? Yes! Restarting them in the morning uses only a tiny amount of energy compared to leaving them plugged in overnight. To keep those energy-sucking vampires at bay, unplug chargers or use a smart power strip to fully cut power. Savings may be modest, but it’s a small step toward a more energy-conscious home.
• A Smarter Way to Scare (and Save): Reliant’s Smarter Home Bundle brings energy efficiency and security together, perfect for those eerie doorbell recordings when trick-or-treaters come calling this Friday. With Vivint’s smart technology, you can monitor your home, manage energy use and even catch those costumed creatures on camera. And don’t miss the limited-edition spooky Halloween Chimes available this week for the Doorbell Camera Pro! Spooky laugh, witch laugh, howling and more!

In brief: In today’s update we discuss the ‘why’ behind today’s strong winds, and how cold it will get tonight. We also take a look at our sunny conditions into Saturday, when there is another chance of rain with a secondary front.

A gusty day

Houston will experience a very windy day today, with gusts this afternoon up to 40 mph or higher. This is the first time we have seen a really strong influx of colder and drier air this season, and you may be wondering why? The answer has to do with pressure systems, and particularly the circulation of air around a strong low pressure system bounded by a high pressure system.

In this case the low associated with Tuesday evening’s front has continued moving eastward. We are now effectively on the “back side” of this low, with strong high pressure building behind it. Today, therefore, we are seeing strong wrap around winds behind the low, with a tight pressure gradient (note the high over west Texas). This has created a superhighway for north-northwesterly winds that will peak this afternoon before finally ebbing late tonight. That sound you hear outside is fall blowing in.

Wednesday

Besides the wind, we are going to see much cooler temperatures today. In fact our highs in the mid- to upper-60s today will be cooler than about half of our nights so far this month. Gusty winds will build this morning and peak during the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 40 or possibly 45 mph possible.

With the setting sun this evening, lows tonight will quickly cool to around 50 degrees in the most urban parts of Houston, with outlying areas dropping into the 40s. It will be our coldest night in more than six months. Winds should begin to slacken this evening, and fall back toward more normal levels by Thursday morning.

Thursday

This will be a sunny and fine day, with lighter northerly winds and highs around 70 degrees. Thursday night’s lows may be a degree or so cooler than Wednesday night with ideal radiational cooling.

Friday

Halloween weather will be anything but spooky, with highs in the mid-70s and pure sunshine. Evening temperatures will be the 60s, with light winds. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s.

Saturday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday or Friday night, and so we’ll start to see the return of some moisture. The question is how much, because a weaker front is going to advance toward the area, and if there is enough moisture it is likely to produce some showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms). Given the uncertainty, there are corresponding questions about Saturday’s weather. For now I expect highs in the 70s, with mostly clear skies through the early afternoon. However I would say there is probably a 50 percent chance of showers later in the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours, and at this point I can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. We’ll keep an eye on things. Lows on Saturday night drop into the 50s.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

These look like a trio of pleasant days in the wake of that secondary front, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with moderate levels of humidity. Sunshine should reign supreme.

Later next week

Temperatures may recover some later next week, with highs around 80 and lows in the vicinity of 60 degrees. We shall see.