Eric Berger

In brief: In this morning’s post we dig into the data to find that yes, this October definitely still ‘feels’ like summer. Will this ever end? Also, we look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend.

Fall is more than half over, and yet…

You may not realize it, but meteorological fall is already half over. We crossed that threshold last week. But this morning aside—which is lovely!—much of September and October have felt like a continuation of summer. I crunched the numbers this morning, and the average high temperature so far this month, through Sunday, has been 91.3 degrees. If that sounds strikingly warm for October, well, it is.

The normal high during the first three weeks of this month is about 85 degrees. This month’s temperature, through 19 days, is the hottest ever, beating the record of 90.7 degrees (set last year). Compare this to the ‘normal’ high temperature for September, which is 90.4 degrees. So yes, if you’re thinking that large swathes of October have felt like a continuation of summer-like weather, you’re not wrong. If you’re wondering if fall is ever going to arrive, the answer is yes, hopefully a little more than one week from day. More on that below.

Monday

Temperatures this morning range from about 50 degrees in the usual cold spots, such as Conroe, to the lower 70s right along the coast. For most of us, these are the coolest temperatures of the season. However the front that brought this weather to us is already washing out, and we’ll see winds swing to come from the east-southeast today, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. We’ll also see sunny skies, with highs near 90 degrees, and rapidly rising dewpoints. As a result humidity levels will be higher by this evening, and overnight lows will only drop into the 70s for pretty much everyone.

Tuesday

Another front will push into the region later on Tuesday, and this will bring a slight chance of rain, perhaps 30 percent for Houston, and a little bit higher for coastal areas. This will be humid and warm day ahead of the front with temperatures in the lower 90s for most. Temperatures should fall into the 60s for most on Tuesday night behind the front as drier air moves in.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the 80s. Wednesday will have lower humidity, but Thursday also does not look excessively humid. Wednesday night should see lows drop into the mid-60s (colder still north and east of Houston), whereas Thursday night only falls to around 70 degrees. Rain chances on both days is near zero.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The combination of an upper-level low and the onshore flow will bring a better chance of rain into the forecast for the weekend period. It’s not clear when the best chances will come, but it likely will be between Friday and Saturday night. It’s too early to have much confidence in accumulations, but most of the area could pick up on the order of 1 inch of needed rain through Sunday. In any case, these days should see partly sunny skies with highs in the 80s. Lows will likely be in the vicinity of the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Next week

The warmer weather will hang on to start next week, but following that there is a a fairly strong signal in the global models for a pattern change, and this is supported by an atmospheric setup that should allow colder air over Canada to move down into the United States. We think this probably will allow a stronger, fall-like front to arrive in our area a couple of days before Halloween. Because this is still 7 to 10 days away we cannot have total confidence, but it does seem likely to occur. This would probably bring us a few nights in the 50s.

In brief: Houston will experience its chilliest night of the season on Sunday, with much of the area dropping into the 50s. But alas, it will not last.

Cold front arrives

Good morning everyone. Just a quick note on a Sunday to say that front pushing into Houston right now is bringing a nice dose of cooler air. Today will be sunny and pleasant, with highs generally in the mid-80s, only marred by occasionally gusty winds from the north. With drier air arriving, we’re going to have a very pleasant evening.

Most of the region has yet to see a night in the 50s so far this season, (our coolest night came on October 11, with 61 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport) but that is in the cards on Sunday night. Areas outside of Houston’s urban core, and away from the immediate coast, should drop into the mid-50s tonight as drier air descends into the region today.

However a southeasterly flow resumes on Monday morning, with the return of muggier air. Another (weaker) front arrives on Tuesday and this will bring us a couple of slightly cooler nights. However we still probably are going to have to wait until next week for the arrival of a truly fall-like cold front. Our confidence in that is increasing, but I’m not ready to sign off on it yet.

Anyway, have a great Sunday, everyone. Just wanted to say if you’ve been looking for fall, it will make a brief appearance tonight!

In brief: Today’s post takes a look at rising humidity for the next couple of days, and returning rain chances on Friday and Saturday. We also look at the likelihood of a weak front on Sunday, and the muddled possibilities for more next week.

A few notes on Fall Day

We have had a couple of questions roll in about Fall Day, our celebration of the end of summer planned for Saturday, October 25th, at Midtown Park. (You can find more information here). Several people have asked about parking, which has been a bit of a challenge during our last two events. This year I’m happy to report there is plenty of parking nearby, including an underground garage that is going to be free on the Saturday morning of our event. Secondly, we are indeed going to have some fun giveaways (including exclusive anniversary tote bags, which probably will go fast), and we will share more information on all of that soon. We are putting a lot of effort into this with our partner, Reliant, so we hope to see you there!

Thursday

Our drier air is holding on for inland areas this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s inland to the 70s along the coast. From this point our dewpoints are going to steadily climb over the next couple of days, so less-than-dry air is going to be the norm through Saturday. This does mean we are going to see more clouds today, and this should help to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees for most locations, depending on your proximity to the coast and central Houston.

Friday and Saturday

The onshore flow and rising atmospheric moisture levels will bring a decent chance of rain into the forecast on Friday and Saturday. Let’s be clear: both days are likely to have partly to mostly sunny skies. But there will be the possibility of a passing shower, with overall chances of 40 to 50 percent daily. Accumulations for the most part will be on the order of a tenth of an inch, but I could see a few areas that see stronger showers that put down half an inch. This is all probably going to be very hit or miss. Temperatures will generally range from the mid-80s to about 90 degrees further inland, with plenty of humidity. Nights will be warm, in the lower 70s.

Sunday

This is the day when a cool front will approach and (probably!) move through Houston and down to the coast. The European (and other) models remain fairly bullish on a nose of drier air dropping down into Houston on Sunday, but there is some uncertainty. Basically, I think if you live along and north of Interstate 10, you’re going to see a good shot of less humid air for a day or so, and but the closer one lives to the coast, the lower the chances and the less dry air. In short this is not going to be a strong front that barrels off the coast and leaves us all saying, “Ahhh.” With that said, most of Houston will probably see highs in the upper 80s on Sunday with lower humidity and sunny skies. Temperatures on Sunday night will vary widely, with some inland areas probably dropping into the 50s, but the coast remaining stubbornly in the 70s.

Next week

Who knows. I think the front on Sunday will wash out pretty quickly. But then we might see another one on Tuesday or Tuesday night. And then maybe a stronger something or other by Thursday or so. The models are flopping around a lot. There also appear to be some rain chances sprinkled in. The upper-level pattern next week does support the sending of a front all the way through Houston later next week, so let’s see what happens. I’ll guarantee you this: If we get a strong cold front, we will comp everyone’s admission to Fall Day. (That’s a joke, just to be clear. Fall Day, like this website, is free and open to everyone).

In brief: Today’s post provides some more information on the region’s burgeoning drought, and why scattered showers to end this week are unlikely to bring any relief. We also discuss the return of September-like humidity for a couple of days before a front on Sunday.

We could use some rain

As Matt noted on Friday, drought conditions are starting to spread into the region after a dry late summer and early fall period. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not recorded more than a trace of rain since September 24, and in both August and September the region received substantially lower rainfall totals than normal.

With shorter days and a lower Sun angle we don’t need as much rain to really help out our soils than we would in the middle of summer. A little goes a long way. However, although a decent shot of rain is in the forecast to end this week, the meager amount we are likely to get is not really going to help much. Most areas are likely to get one-tenth of an inch, or less. And that is just not going to cut it. Any significant rain accumulations likely remain eight to 10 days away.

Wednesday

We’re going to enjoy some modestly lower humidity levels for another day or so before the return of the onshore flow. Accordingly, high temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to 90 degrees today, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the northeast. Lows tonight will again drop into the 60s in Houston on Wednesday night, with cooler conditions in suburban and outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day, with highs generally in the upper 80s. However, with dewpoints a good 10 degrees higher than Wednesday, our air will feel more humid. Over the course of the day winds should shift to come more from the southeast. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s (with more moisture in the air it will be slower to cool down).

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer and more humid days, feeling almost like summer outside I’m afraid. With highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees and plenty of humidity it will be a throwback to September. Each day should bring a decent (40 percent, maybe?) chance of showers. But as noted I expect these to be light, short-lived, and bringing hundredths to tenths of an inch of rain (at most). Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny. Nights will be warm, in the lower 70s.

Sunday

A decent shot of drier air will push into the region on Sunday as a front moves in. This will be more of a ‘humidity’ front than a true cool front, but it will still feel somewhat refreshing after Friday and Saturday. look for highs around 90 degrees on Sunday, with cooler conditions on Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows will depend on where you live, but I could see outlying areas drop into the 50s while much of Houston remains in the 60s.

Next week

Sunday’s front will be fairly short lived, with humidity and temperatures likely to rebound early next week. After that we are going to be looking for the possibility of a stronger, more fall-like front. There is still no clear or certain signal yet, but I’m hopeful we might see this at some point during the second half of next week. Notably, the GFS model out just this morning has finally leaned into such a solution, but since we are still a week or more out, I just cannot say anything with high confidence.