Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss how cold conditions got in the Houston region this morning, and then look ahead to warmer days. We also consider the potential for rain chances this weekend, and a stronger front next week.

How low did we go?

This morning’s post is a little bit late because I wanted to get a good read on just how low temperatures in the region went this morning. Although the numbers are not official yet, the city’s primary station at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to at least 37 degrees (the record minimum for today is 32 degrees, set in 1987). Some of the usual cooler spots, including Conroe, Cleveland, Brenham, and Navasota, all recorded a light freeze this morning, and the vast majority of the metro area dropped into the 30s, barring the immediate coast. In short, it’s rather chilly for early November. However this won’t persist. Last week we described this front and short and sharp, and temperatures will moderate quickly today.

Veterans Day

If you’re participating in a ceremony to honor the nation’s veterans this morning, you can expect sunny skies and warming temperatures. We should be in the 50s by mid-morning, and headed to the lower 70s this afternoon. Light easterly winds will shift to come from the south later this morning, and that will herald the beginning of an onshore flow. Lows tonight, accordingly, will only drop into the upper 50s. So very much on the warmer side.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The remainder of the work week will see mild weather. Expect highs generally in the low 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be near zero. Winds will be light in the morning, but there may be some southerly gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoons. With dewpoints in the low 60s the air will be modestly humid, but not oppressively so. Nights will be on the warm side, falling only into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although previously it looked as though a front may push into the Houston area this weekend, that no longer appears likely to happen. Instead the front is likely to approach the area but effectively wash out before moving into Houston proper. So what does that mean for our weather? I expect to see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with warm nights. With plenty of moisture and the possibility of a disturbed atmosphere, I think we’ll see a slight (perhaps 20 or 30 percent) chance of rain on Saturday, and maybe a better chance (50 percent?) on Sunday. We’ll probably need to keep using pencils and erasers on this forecast for another day or two before our confidence increases.

Next week

It’s possible that a weak front does make it by Tuesday or so, but we probably will have to wait until later in the week (in the Nov. 20-21 range) for something a little stronger. The bottom line is that, at some point next week, I’m fairly confident we’ll see some pretty healthy rain chances and cooler weather. But before then we’re going to have a goodly string of 80-degree days.

Fundraiser

Matt and I wanted to thank everyone who donated to our fundraiser, which kicked off on Monday. You can find all the details here on merchandise to purchase, or how to donate. Your support really does make a difference!

In brief: We’ve got a lot to get to today. First up is our region’s coldest night of the season, by far, in which some far inland areas may experience a light freeze. Then, looking ahead, we have our first real rainfall in weeks on the horizon. And finally, we are excited to share details about our annual fundraiser, which begins today.

2025 fundraiser

It’s here!

Our annual fundraiser, in which you can buy merchandise or simply donate, begins this morning. This is your one opportunity a year to directly support our efforts to provide accurate information, without hype, to the greater Houston region. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give. But if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all.

For more information, see our information page. To jump right to the merch, click here.

Monday and Monday night

We are starting out with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s in the far north of the region (hello Conroe) to low 40s in Houston, to upper 40s right along the coast. And despite sunny skies, we are unlikely to see high temperatures rise above 60 degrees today. Winds will be decidedly lighter than on Sunday, but we still could see some northerly gusts through the early afternoon hours.

After that, our focus turns toward tonight when clear skies and light winds will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. In the center of Houston’s urban core I expect low temperatures to hold at around 40 degrees, but for many areas outside of the central city and away from the coast, we are likely to see lows drop into the 30s. Some areas north and north east of the city may flirt with a light freeze, including parts of Montgomery and Liberty counties.

Tuesday

Veterans Day will start out cold, but temperatures should rebound into the upper 50s by mid-morning, going all the way up to the lower 70s in the afternoon with ample sunshine. Winds will shift to come from the south, gusting up to 20 mph or so later in the day. Low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer, falling only into the upper 50s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three mild, partly to mostly sunny days. Highs will generally range from the upper 70s right along the coast to lower 80s for areas west and north of Houston. Will it feel humid? A bit. Dewpoints will be right around 60 degrees. So that’s moderately humid, but nothing like mid-summer or even early fall. Nighttime lows will generally fall into the mid-60s. Rain chances are low to non-existent until Friday night, at least.

Saturday and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend you’ll want to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days. Saturday should start out warm and somewhat humid, but at some point a front is going to advance toward the area. Because we’ll have several days of onshore flow this week there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. I suspect the approach of this front will therefore lead to a good chance of rain. Timing is suspect, but I think there will be about a 50 percent chance of showers on Saturday and Saturday night, with perhaps a bit lower odds on Sunday. Accumulations don’t look too great, with totals ranging from a few tenths of an inch of rain to one-half inch. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and perhaps 70 degrees on Sunday (depending on the timing of the front). There remains some question as to the strength of this front, but my guess is we’ll get a couple of nights with lows around 50 degrees out of it.

Next week

We are getting toward the part of the forecast that is usually pretty fuzzy. However there is decent agreement in the models about another (maybe stronger?) front later next week, and this should bring some more cooler weather and another healthy chance of rainfall. We’ll have more details for you in the coming days, but if we could pick up an inch of rainfall through next week, or so, that would do our soils some real good. A few people have asked about a Thanksgiving forecast, but I would be a turkey to try and predict something that is 17 days out.

In brief: In today’s post we explore the very warm highs of the region’s forecast, including the potential for an unprecedented 90-degree day in November. After heat on Friday and Saturday the region will experience a sharp cool down as a front arrives to push lows down to around 40 degrees.

90 in November?

In its long history Houston has never recorded a temperature of 90 degrees, or higher, in November. This is because days are shorter, the Sun angle is lower, and generally we are seeing regular fronts that bring cooler air into the region. However due to a combination of uncharacteristic warmth and compressional heating, it is possible that we could hit 90 degrees on Friday or Saturday at the city’s official monitoring station at Bush Intercontinental Airport. It will be close, and we’ll be monitoring things.

Houston may hit 40 degrees on schedule this year

Conversely, our region is forecast to have its coldest nights of the season, so far, next Monday and Tuesday mornings. There is a decent chance, probably at least 50 percent I would guess, that the city’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport will hit 40 degrees. Naturally, being a weather nerd, I wondered whether that was early. So I checked the data. Answer? It would be, if only slightly. Based on data going back to 1889, the average date of the city’s first 40-degree (or cooler) temperature reading is November 13th. (Next Monday is the 10th, and Tuesday is the 11th).

Thursday

We are seeing fog develop across the region this morning, and the National Weather Service has issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am. Please take care driving. This is due in part to very light winds and temperatures and dewpoints being an identical 60 degrees in many locations. When the fog clears we will have a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s, and dense fog may very well return early on Friday.

Friday and Saturday

These will be sunny and hot days. The National Weather Service presently forecasts a high of 88 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Friday, and 89 degrees on Saturday. We’ll see if we hit that historic 90-degree mark. Friday night will be warm, with temperatures in the mid-60s. I expect the front to arrive sometime between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the region. At this point I don’t anticipate much, if any precipitation with the front.

Sunday

A breezy and cooler day with clear skies. Expect highs around 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty, especially during the middle of the day with maximum gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 40s on Sunday night, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Monday

A chilly day, with highs perhaps topping out in the lower 60s. Winds will die down. Lows on Monday night will drop to around 40 in the region, with inland areas seeing the 30s.

The rest of next week

After the cold start to Veteran’s Day, we will see a gradual warmup, with highs likely returning to around 80 degrees by Wednesday, and remaining on the warm side into the weekend. Rain chances look low. Another front is possible later next weekend, but our overall confidence in the forecast is low.

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains more or less the same, with warming days and nights heading into the weekend, followed by a sharp cooldown on Saturday night. This front will be relatively short-lived, but bring two cold nights into the region.

Wednesday

Lows are about 10 degrees warmer this morning, but this will still be our coolest morning until Monday, probably. Winds are calm, but will be southerly later this morning, indicating the ongoing return of the onshore flow. Highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear today, and remain so for pretty much the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

A similar day to Wednesday, although the southeasterly winds may be slightly more pronounced, and humidity levels a touch higher. Highs, again, will be around 80 degrees, or just a bit warmer. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer days, especially for early November. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 80s across the region, with mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel humid, but not super sultry like the summertime in Houston. Lows will drop into the 60s on both nights, although areas north of I-10 may see cooler temperatures later on Saturday night. That’s because I think the front will reach our northern areas on Saturday evening or night, and push off the coast by around sunrise. This looks like a dry passage, although winds should pretty rapidly shift to come from the north.

Sunday

This will be a breezy, sunny day with highs likely topping out in the lower 70s. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Monday

We are going to see ideal cooling conditions on Monday and Monday night, with lighter winds. Expect highs to perhaps only reach the low- to mid-60s. As for Monday night, temperatures should drop into the 30s to the north of Houston, with a few areas (i.e. Trinity and Polk counties) near but not within the Houston metro area flirting with a light freeze. In Houston itself I think temperatures remain in the vicinity of 40 degrees, but this is likely to be the region’s coldest night of the season.

The rest of next week

Tuesday is likely to bring highs of around 70 degrees before we return to temperatures of around 80 degrees for the rest of the work week. As for rain chances, they’re very low, to zero, for the next 10 days.