Eric Berger

In brief: As we experience the coldest weather of this winter outbreak, Houston’s coming through without any significant power issues. Roads, too, are mostly passable with a little care in the metro area. We have one more cold night before a modest warmup ensues. And what of that second Arctic front next weekend?

Winter storm status

As we noted yesterday, Houston never received the amount of freezing rain necessary to present problems for power lines and other means of distributing electricity. And based on ERCOT’s latest projections for this morning, there should be no electricity supply crunch. Therefore we have no meaningful concerns about power during the current cold snap.

Roads, too, are mostly fine. There have been some reports of ice on roadways where standing water froze over night. Be sure to check Houston Transtar’s list of icy roadways before heading out this morning. However if you take a little time, and a little extra care, you should be able to get most locations in the metro area this morning. Road conditions rapidly worsen to the north of Houston, such as north of Conroe, and to the northwest, near Hempstead, on Highway 290. More information can be found on Drive Texas.

As for temperatures, lows have fallen generally into the mid-20s this morning in Houston and surrounding areas. Even Galveston Island has dropped into the upper 20s. Overcast skies have helped prevent colder temperatures. I expect lows to reach similar levels tonight, with temperatures perhaps a few degrees warmer or cooler.

Monday

Job number one this morning is to stay warm. Winds are still frisky, from the north at 10 to 15 mph, and that is making a very cold morning worse. Wind chill temperatures are in the low teens out there. We’ll be slow to warm up this morning, but by this afternoon with clearing skies we should see highs reach into the mid- to upper-30s for most locations. For a few hours at least. The combination of lighter winds and clearing skies will lead to ideal cooling conditions tonight. Expect lows similar to what we’re experiencing this morning, give or take.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

Houston will slowly emerge from the ice box this week with highs on Tuesday in the upper 40s, and reaching the mid- to upper-50s by Thursday. A light freeze will be possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday nights for central and further inland parts of the area. Skies should be mostly sunny.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Another strong cold front is in the cards for this weekend, likely arriving on Friday. This may bring some precipitation with it. Although we cannot rule out some of this rain turning into snow or sleet, it looks like the colder air will arrive after the precipitation ends. We’ll be watching things closely, all the same. Friday will probably see highs in the 50s, but the weekend looks cold with high temperatures in the 40s. What of lows? It’s a good question, and I could see them falling anywhere in the 25 to 35 degree range for Houston. So worst case, probably about what we’re experiencing this morning. But there’s still some wiggle room, so I want to wait for more clarity before making bold predictions.

Stay warm out there, and thanks to everyone who is getting out and about this morning to make Houston’s fair society—from grocery stores and airports to hospitals and law enforcement—function despite the inclement weather.

In brief: So the great ice-apocalypse forecast by some did not happen in Houston. We explain why not, and why most Houston roads are good to go. Also, we take a peek at lows tonight and Monday night.

So what happened?

If you’ve been carefully reading Space City Weather for the past week—and you have, haven’t you?—we’ve talked ad nauseum about the uncertainty surrounding air temperatures on Sunday morning, and what that would mean for freezing rain and ice accumulations. Back on Thursday, for example, I outlined a couple of scenarios that were possible; a faster freeze and a slower freeze. In the end we got lucky, and the “slower freeze” happened.

Basically, temperatures during the key moments of precipitation this morning across most of the Houston area remained in the 32 to 35 degree range. (The map above shows air temperatures at 7 am CT). We actually saw surface temperatures warm very slightly when the stronger showers moved through this morning as this heavier precipitation dragged some of the warmer air higher in the atmosphere down to the surface. These couple of degrees helped ensure that a lot of precipitation feel in Houston as cold rain or sleet. Moreover, because surfaces were still well above freezing (it’s been warm for the last week) there was not enough time for these surfaces to cool down to support sticking ice.

We received about 0.25 to 1 inch of precipitation this morning. Had that been snow, we would have had inches of the white stuff laying around. Had it been freezing rain, our roads would be an icy nightmare. Because it was what it was, our roads have had some time to dry out before temperatures plunge tonight.

Are there issues with driving?

Things are fine for the most part out there in metro Houston. As of noon on Sunday there are just about a dozen icy locations on area freeways, and these are largely where you would expect them: to the west, northwest, and north of Houston, mostly on overpasses. But by and large the rain has evaporated from streets before it could freeze, and a lot of area roads are clear. Locations that are dry now will be fine from now on.

There are still some locations with patchy ice, and areas with standing water will freeze tonight. So I’m not saying you should drive without caution. But getting around Houston should be fine if you drive with care tonight and on Monday.

But boy oh boy, when you get outside of Houston conditions deteriorate pretty quickly. If you browse over to Drive Texas there are hundreds of reported incidences of ice and snow on Texas highways. So if you need to get from Houston north to Dallas, or west to Austin and San Antonio, travel is not recommended. (I-10 east into Louisiana is fine). Neither Austin nor Dallas will be comfortably above freezing until Tuesday, but road conditions may improve before then due to treatment.

So how about power issues?

Houston has dodged the first of two potential bullets when it comes to electricity. Because we never recorded much in the way of freezing rain this morning, ice never accumulated on tree limbs and power lines. Therefore, CenterPoint and other utilities never had distribution issues.

The second bullet is power generation, especially tonight into Monday morning when the state faces some of its coldest weather. If you peruse supply and demand projections from ERCOT, a possible crunch remains from 6 am to 10 am on Monday morning. So far ERCOT has not issued a call to conserve energy usage, so my sense is that things will be more or less OK on Monday morning from a power generation standpoint. But we’ll keep a close eye on things, and update Space City Weather if this projection changes.

Sunday and Monday nights

Our main remaining concern with this winter system is temperatures tonight and on Monday night, when the coldest air mass will be in place. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer of late, and I believe this is due in part to a lack of ice on the ground in and near Houston. This would have lead to more efficient cooling of air near the surface. I expect lows of generally 20 to 28 degrees in Houston on both nights, with slightly cooler temperatures possible north and west of the city. Below is a forecast for lows on Tuesday morning, which now should be the coldest of the period due to clear skies and light winds.

Our next update will be posted around 7 am CT on Monday morning.

In brief: As we have been forecasting for days now about Sunday, it is a very close call out there for freezing precipitation in Houston this morning. Temperatures are falling to just about to the freezing level as a line of showers moves through, and accordingly we are seeing everything at the moment: rain, freezing rain, sleet, eve a little snow. Impacts are to be determined.

Winter storm status

Houston is now receiving its second, and final round of precipitation with this winter event. The precipitation is continuing as temperatures fall to around the freezing level in the city, and it is leading to varying levels of impacts on roadways. Fortunately, much of the precipitation this morning has fallen as rainfall or sleet, and this has spared us from power-line impacts due to ice accumulations. As of 6 am CT only a few thousand CenterPoint customers are without power.

We strongly urge caution with using area roadways this morning. Some areas north and west of Houston are ice bound, and there are reports of ice on several Houston area freeways. I would treat all overpasses and ramps as suspect as well, with the potential for icy patches. However, with air temperatures still in the 31 to 34 degree range, roads in the city are not freezing quickly. Many are still wet rather than icy.

Sunday forecast

The showers (and a few thunderstorms) should exit the region to our east by around 8 am. And that will likely be the end of the precipitation. After this we are going to see gusty winds from the north, perhaps as high as 30 mph this afternoon as Arctic air surges into the region. We may also see some sporadic sunshine. Temperatures today are unlikely to rise much above freezing. Areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 may reach the mid-30s for a few hours this afternoon, but areas such as Katy, Cypress, and Kingwood may max out at about 30 degrees this afternoon.

All of this raises difficult to answer questions about the state of roads later today. On one hand, the precipitation ends, and strong winds will have a drying effect on roads. However, the colder temperatures this afternoon, especially for inland areas, will lock any ice into place. We will know more in a few hours, but at this point my expectation is for icy patches on roadways, with issues on bridges and overpasses. However, we are now unlikely to see a widespread ice storm, which should be favorable for impacts later today and on Monday morning. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours. Again, if you can stay home this morning it is highly advisable, because as temperatures fall this morning water on roads can freeze.

With mostly cloudy skies we should see low temperatures tonight drop into the 20 to 25 degree range in Houston. Ongoing northerly winds at 15 mph, with higher gusts, will add additional chill to the air. Please protect pets from this very cold weather tonight.

Monday

We should see clearing skies on Monday, but temperatures will be slow to warm with the ongoing advection of cold air into the region. By around noon, or shortly after, we should see temperatures rise above freezing for a few hours, reaching 35 to possibly 40 degrees for much of the region. Lows on Monday night will be similar to Sunday night, still very cold, but with clear skies and lighter winds.

Tuesday and beyond

By Tuesday we’ll be comfortably in the 40s for high temperatures, and then the 50s through Friday. After this time another Arctic front may be in the cards next weekend, although it’s not yet clear whether it will be as cold as this air mass (probably not?) or as impactful in terms of wintry precipitation. We shall see.

Our next post will come by around 2 pm CT this afternoon, when we will take a closer look at roads and electricity production statewide for a very cold night across Texas.

In brief: The forecast for our winter storm is coming into clearer focus this afternoon, and we now anticipate fairly widespread ice impacts on Sunday, which may extend into Monday. There is also the potential for thunderstorms (and thundersleet!) before the precipitation ends on Sunday. It’s all happening in winter storm 2026 Houston.

What to expect, and when

For this afternoon’s post we are going to break things down into what people should expect, and when. Houston will face a mix of winter-inspired threats over the next two days, everything from thundersleet—yes, it’s a real thing—to ice on roads. The bottom line is that we all need to have a little patience over the next 24 to 48 hours until Mother Nature sorts its issues out.

Tonight

We’re already seeing temperatures falling into the upper 30s north of Houston, and this downward trend will continue. Freezing temperatures will arrive in places like Katy and The Woodlands around midnight tonight, and should move into much of the rest of the metro area (barring the coast) by sunrise on Sunday. During these overnight hours cold rain will transition to freezing rain and, in some cases, sleet. There is also the potential for some thunderstorms, in which case we might get a rare thundersleet sighting, in which sleet falls during a thunderstorm. In locations where sleet falls (which is preferable to freezing rain) there will be less ice buildup on streets. In any case, when you wake up Sunday morning we’re going to see a different world.

My baseline expectation is for 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice accumulation along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. As for areas south of this, and closer to the coast, we can probably expect a trace of ice perhaps up to 0.1 inch. The bottom line is that roads will potentially be hazardous anywhere but the immediate coast. Our best advice is to plan to stay home on Sunday, and limit any travel to emergencies only. Even if you are the world’s best ice road trucker, chances are your fellow drivers are not. For good real-time information about ice on Houston’s roadways, be sure to check Houston Transtar’s road incident page.

Sunday

It will be interesting to see how high temperatures get on Sunday. Parts of the area (again, most likely locations along and south of Highway 59) will probably get above freezing for a few hours on Sunday afternoon. This, in concert with gusty northerly winds, and potentially a some patches of sunny skies, may do some work on drying out roads. But then again, maybe not. And for areas further inland I’m just not confident in ice melting at all. I mean, it could happen. But if there’s enough ice, it will take longer than an hour or two of 35 degrees to take care of it. Temperatures will plunge back below freezing by 5 or 6 pm CT on Sunday, and we’ll be in for a cold night. However, the likelihood of clouds on Sunday night may take some of the edge off of low temperatures. I expect lows to remain in the vicinity of 20 to 25 degrees in urban Houston, with areas west (i.e. Katy) and north (The Woodlands) potentially dropping into the upper teens.

Monday

We’ve had the road discussion already, but I think freeways and local streets on Monday will be a mixed bag. Coastal areas probably will be OK. Areas further inland, probably not? I’m just not sure how well, or to what extent, our regional ice treatment services will do. I could see things being passable near downtown Houston and the Texas Medical Center, but I really want to see where we are on Sunday afternoon before making a definitive call. Anyway, we start out very cold on Monday, but with sunny skies I’m hopeful that most of the region gets to highs of 35 to 40 degrees. I think this, in concert with sunshine, should do work on icy roads. But again, I’m not 100 percent confident in that. Anyway, lows on Monday night (with clear skies) could be a degree or two colder than Sunday night.

Tuesday

If you’re wondering when you can stop worrying about this deep freeze, the answer is late Tuesday morning. By then temperatures will be recovering into the 40s.

Eric, what about the next Arctic front?

Yeah, we are probably going to see another cooldown next weekend. I think there’s a decent chance of a light freeze, and although we can’t rule out a hard freeze the signal for extreme cold is not nearly so strong as it was for the current event. There is also a signal for some snow, but we’re not going to make any promises to the kids just yet.

We will have one more update today, likely late this evening, by or before 11 pm to share our latest thinking on the forecast.