Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s forecast is a tale of three fronts, which will keep Houston mostly on the cooler side of things into the middle of next week. The first two will be dry ones, but there is a healthy chance of rain with the third one next week. We could use it, as the southern half of the region has fallen into a ‘severe’ drought.

Rain wanted

Some parts of the Houston area (i.e. Kingwood, Cypress, Spring, Oak Forest, and other nearby environs) picked up a decent amount of rain with last weekend’s cold front, but for the majority of the region totals were far less. For some areas on the south side of Houston, it has been more than six weeks since a solid rainfall. And according to the most recently issued US Drought Monitor, a large slug of the southern half of the metro area has now fallen into a ‘severe’ drought.

I don’t want to over-set expectations, and it’s always possible this could fizzle out. But it does seem likely that the Tuesday through Friday period of next week will bring a decent chance of rain into the region. We are not talking the potential for flooding, I think. And in a normal period this would not be particularly noteworthy. But after such a dry winter so far, the potential for 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain next week is worth highlighting. Anyway, we’ll keep an eye on things for you.

Wednesday

We’re getting a cold front today, but it will be a dry one. Skies will be sunny, with high temperatures pushing into the upper 60s. Winds are light, from the west, this morning. However by or before noon we’ll see a wind shift to come from the northwest and then north, and this afternoon we should see gusts up to about 30 mph. This will bring in drier air, and push overnight temperatures down to about 40 degrees tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Winds will continue to be strong this evening before settling down a bit after midnight.

Thursday

This will be a chilly day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 50s. Thursday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday night, but still chilly.

Friday

This will be a warmer day as southerly winds return. Expect highs of around 70 degrees. Before this warming trend becomes too pronounced, however, another front will push through.

Saturday and Sunday

In the wake of Friday’s front we will see a cool and fine weekend, with sunny skies. Expect daily highs of around 60 degrees. Saturday night should be the chilliest of the period. Most of Houston will likely remain above freezing, but some of the usual spots further inland could see a light freeze.

Next week

Monday, when we celebrate M.L.K. Day, will be pleasant, with sunny conditions and highs in the 60s. After this yet another front will push into the region, and this is when I think we may start to see better rain conditions. However the details are still pretty fuzzy. We also should start to warm up into the 70s by the second half of next week before another front some time next weekend.

In brief: Houston will continue to see cool and dry weather through the weekend. There are some slight rain chances today, but most of what’s on radar appears to be virga. We also take a sneak peek at Texans playoff weather in Massachusetts this weekend.

Texans playoff weather

The Houston Texans football team advanced to the Divisional Playoff round after a thorough beating of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. The Texans, which have the best defense in the franchise’s history, will now play the New England Patriots at their home stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts next Sunday. This can be a forbidding place, weather-wise, in January. But an early look at the forecast is not too intimidating.

The game starts at 2 pm CT, and temperatures will likely be in the upper 30s, with partly sunny skies. Winds, at this time, look manageable at 10 to 15 mph. Snow is not out of the question, but for now most of the models keep a low pressure system just north of the area, ruling out any accumulations. The bottom line, for late January near Boston, the forecast is one in which the Texans can thrive.

Tuesday

Returning closer to home, temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 40s for much of the Houston metro area. In response to a weak upper-level low pressure system we are seeing some light showers on the radar this morning to the west and southwest of the Houston area. Much of this is likely virga, which is precipitation that falls from clouds but evaporates before hitting the ground. This is occurring because the rain is light, and the air near the surface is very dry. It’s possible that some of these showers will be come a little bit stronger later today, so there is about a 20 percent chance of light sprinkles or showers reaching the ground as this system moves into the Houston region. Skies, otherwise, will be partly to mostly cloudy today with highs of around 60 degrees. Lows tonight will again generally drop into the upper 40s.

Wednesday

The first of two reinforcing fronts this week will arrive on Wednesday. Ahead of the front skies will be clear, and highs could reach about 70 degrees. However at some point, probably around noon or shortly after, winds will pick up from the north, gusting up to 25 mph or higher. These winds will eventually slacken some by Wednesday night, with lows dropping into the lower 40s, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. The front will be a dry passage, with no precipitation expected.

Thursday

This will be a sunny, cool day with highs of around 60 degrees. Lows on Thursday night will fall into the low- to mid-40s.

Friday

Temperatures will rebound to around 70 degrees on Friday, with ample sunshine. Another front later on Friday will bring more colder air in, dropping temperatures into the low 40s Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks clear and cool, with highs generally in the 60s (probably mid-60s, but we’ll see) and sunny skies. Overnight lows will probably fall to around 40 degrees in Houston (although there is a chance for slightly colder nights). Overall rain chances are close to zero. Really we have zero weather concerns locally this weekend. Enjoy the winter-like weather!

Next week

The early part of next week looks to bring continued cold for a few more days. There is some “noise” out there about a hard freeze early next week, but at this point most of our modeling keeps things at, or above freezing. We’ll keep an eye on this. After about Tuesday we are likely to warm up for a few days, perhaps reaching the mid-70s toward the end of next week. This may change with another front by or before the weekend. Rain chances, alas, continue to look really low as we dry out. That is the only unfortunate element of this otherwise splendid winter weather forecast.

In brief: The Houston Marathon starts in less than 18 hours, and I wanted to provide a final forecast update with a few tweaks as you prepare for the race on Sunday morning.

Good afternoon! I hope all my fellow runners are practicing proper carbo loading exercises today in preparation for the marathon on Sunday. I just wanted to call attention to a few tweaks in the forecast for tomorrow morning.

Temperatures: Some of our highest resolution models are trending a little lower in terms of temperatures at sunrise on Sunday. At this time I would therefore predict temperatures at 7 am are closer to 40 degrees than 45, and they will likely remain in the 40s until around 10:30 or 11 am. So you can count on fairly cold conditions throughout the race.

Winds: I’m sure more than a few of you stepped outside into the blustery conditions today and wondered whether these winds are going to persist into Sunday morning. We can confidently say no, they will not. As we’ve been predicting for several days, winds will be elevated in the aftermath of the frontal passage, but gradually settle down. Wind gusts of up to 20 mph will be possible until around midnight tonight, but then should die down. During the race on Sunday morning I expect very light winds at the start while we’re waiting in the corrals. By mid-morning (you know, probably right about the time you hit mile marker 14 and head north on Post Oak) they may pick up to about 10 mph, with some slightly higher gusts from the north. Still, they’ll be nothing like last year.

Skies: I think they’re going to be mixed. I don’t have great confidence in the cloud cover forecast. My sense is that we’ll start out mostly cloudy early in the morning, with gradual clearing throughout the race. But honestly, I’m not sure.

Precipitation: None, unless we’re counting perspiration. In that case, plenty. Good luck, everyone!

In brief: Today’s post discusses the possibility of thunderstorms with a front on Friday night, folllowed by a cooldown that will stick around for awhile. Winter, it seems, really might be here. Also, start line conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best I can recall.

Storms possible Friday night?

Houston’s weather has been mostly calm for awhile now, beyond the very warm conditions we have experienced since early December. However there is a slight chance of some severe weather on Friday night as a fairly robust cold front passes through. We will have a decent amount of shear available, but I just don’t think the overall background conditions will favor widespread, severe weather. So yes, some scattered thunderstorms are likely on Friday night (perhaps around midnight in central Houston), but I don’t expect much more than that.

Thursday

We’re experiencing less fog this morning across the region, and that’s largely due to more pronounced southerly winds. They’re currently blowing at 10 to 15 mph, and we may see some stronger gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but since the air mass moving in from the south will be warm and muggy, I still expect some parts of our area to hit 80 degrees. A few scattered, and light showers will also be possible today. Lows tonight will be very warm for January, in the upper 60s.

Friday

Rain chances improve on Friday, likely to about 60 percent for most locations. We will probably see scattered showers during the daytime. It is possible that a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will develop later on Friday evening, and pass through Houston during the overnight hours. We’ll see. Regardless, temperatures on Friday will be warm and muggy, likely pushing 80 degrees. By Saturday morning we should be in the mid-50s, with much drier air moving in.

Saturday

This will be a breezy, and much cooler day with temperatures reaching only about 60 degrees during the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy as well, adding to the chill feeling. A chance of showers may linger during the morning hours. Gusty winds from the north may reach 25 mph, or perhaps even a bit higher, before calming some Saturday night. Lows will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

I was chatting yesterday with a friend and fellow runner, and we agreed that conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best they’ve been in memory. Start-line temperatures will be in the 40s, with a modest northerly wind (probably 10 mph). Humidity will be very low, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain should not be a factor. And temperatures by late morning likely will still only be in the 50s. So now is the time to go for those personal records!

Anyway, for non-runners, we can expect highs by Sunday afternoon to reach about 60 degrees. Sunday night will be quite cold, with lows in Houston dropping to 40 degrees, with mid- to upper-30s for outlying areas. Far inland locations, such as College Station, Huntsville, and elsewhere may see a light freeze.

Next week

Winter should stick around through next week, with highs mostly in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. We may see some rain chances on Tuesday or Wednesday as a reinforcing front moves through, and then again next weekend. The details, as always, are fuzzy at such a distance.