Eric Berger

In brief: As of 2 pm CT on Tuesday Tropical Storm Edouard has begun making landfall in extreme southwestern Louisiana, not far from Port Arthur and Beaumont. Houston will not see much in the way of winds and high seas, but what about rainfall?

Just a quick update this afternoon to provide some additional information on the status of Tropical Storm Edouard, which is coming ashore near the state line between Texas and Louisiana. Although Edouard has strengthened some today, it has remained a tropical storm rather than blossoming into a hurricane.

The storm is far enough away from the Houston metro area that direct impacts in our region (as we suggested on Monday evening) are minimal. Winds may turn a bit gusty this afternoon and evening, and seas along Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula may be a foot or two higher than normal at high tide. However, when one steps outside today it will not meaningfully feel like a tropical storm in Harris or surrounding counties.

So, is it going to rain?

This leaves us with rainfall potential. Our expectations for rain were never particularly high for areas west of Interstate 45, and now I am sorry to say—because let’s face it, after a long, hot, and dry August our soils are parched—our expectations for rain in these areas is even lower. Certainly we could still see some wrap-around showers over the next 24 to 36 hours, but significant relief is not coming for most locations.

For areas along and east of I-45 there still a good chance of at least some rainfall as a band or two moves through, particularly the further east you get, i.e. Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and into Chambers County. But even so I would not hope for much more than an inch or two of rainfall, and most locations may not even get even this. The best chance of rain may well come north of the Houston metro area, along and north Highway 105 in Montgomery County, near the center tonight.

In any case, if you’ve been hoping for a good soaking from Edouard in Houston, I feel your pain. Ultimately the storm’s center just tracked too far to the east. Instead of making landfall on the Texas side of Port Arthur, it is doing so on the Louisiana side. That is going to end up pulling the most abundant moisture, and resulting rainfall, east of most Houston-area residents. Normally in this situation I’d say we should gang up and blame Matt, but he’s gone and moved to Connecticut, so I guess this one’s on me.

Our next update will come by or before 10 pm CT tonight.

In brief: Tropical Storm Edouard is nearing landfall today, and it will bring some sporty winds and heavy rainfall into the upper Texas coast. For the most part the worst of these impacts will be east and north of Houston, but we’re still eyeing the potential for heavy rainfall, especially east of Interstate 45.

As of 7 am CT Tropical Storm Edouard is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph, and is nearing the northern Gulf coast. On this track the storm will reach the coast, likely near the state line between Texas and Louisiana, around noon or shortly after today. The question is whether the storm, which still has sustained winds of 40 mph, will undergo a burst of intensification this morning, which is possible but not certain.

For most this won’t matter too much. This is because Edouard has a small wind field, and its maximum winds should fall off fairly quickly once inland. This means that areas such as Beaumont and Port Arthur could see wind gusts above 40 or 45 mph today, but in the greater Houston area we likely will only see gusts up to 25 mph or so. One exception is Chambers County, which could see gusts up to 35 or 40 mph this afternoon as Edouard moves inland. In terms of storm surge, impacts in the Houston and Galveston region will be limited. A larger storm surge, of 3 to 5 feet, is possible from High Island eastward into southwestern Louisiana.

Rainfall potential

This leaves rain as the main issue—and it really has been the main issue with this storm from the beginning. So what’s going to happen?

As of just before sunrise on Tuesday, Edouard’s showers and thunderstorms remain offshore, but they are moving closer to Texas. The thickest band of storms lies to the west of the storm’s center, so we continue to anticipate that the heaviest rains will be to the west of its landfalling location. The most probable outcome is that there is a band of heavy rainfall between Houston and Beaumont, most likely in Chambers and Liberty counties. Accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible in these areas today and tonight, with the potential for higher bullseyes.

As for Harris County and the Houston metro area, we are likely to see less rainfall, particularly for areas west of I-45. We are going to maintain a Stage 2 flood alert for locations east of I-45, but in truth most of Galveston and Harris Counties are likely to see rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches at most.

One other thing of note: The models are hinting at the development of diurnal showers tonight near the center of the storm as it moves north of Houston. Areas along, and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County could see several inches of rain tonight—locations such as Conroe or Centerville or elsewhere. It’s difficult to pinpoint precisely where, but there is definitely some inland rainfall threat far from the coast.

Tuesday

Rain chances today will depend on whether you live in the eastern (higher) or western (much lower) half of the Houston region. Regardless, mostly cloudy skies should help keep high temperatures in most locations in the upper 80s. Although we are not expecting widespread disruptions due to weather in Houston and its surrounding suburbs today, please do remain weather aware as there could still be strong thunderstorms with heavy rain that develop in localized areas. Due to wrap-around showers from the center of Edouard, as it moves inland, we could see more rains tonight.

Wednesday

This should be another mostly cloudy day, which should help to limit highs to around 90 degrees. As for rains, I think area-wide there will be a healthy 50 to 60 percent chance of showers, so if you have outdoor activities related to school or otherwise, you should prepare for the possibility of some disruptions due to passing storms.

Thursday, and Friday

Skies turn partly to (perhaps) mostly sunny to end the work week, and this should allow high temperatures to reach the lower 90s. We are still going to have a chance for showers, most likely during the afternoon hours with the sea breeze.

Labor Day Weekend

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather into the region, and high temperatures recovering into the low 90s, and for some inland areas possibly mid-90 to upper-90ss. Will it rain? We cannot rule out some showers over the weekend, but for the most part I think anything that develops will move through quickly. So at this point beach and pool activities should be good to go through the holiday weekend, with Labor Day on Monday.

Next week

We are likely to remain in a late summer pattern next week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and some slight- to modest rain chances along the sea breeze. For early September this is not bad weather, it’s pretty typical as we enter the first fall front waiting room. No firm sign of that, alas. \

Our next update will come by or before 2 pm CT today.

In brief: In this evening’s post we attempt to set some expectations for Tropical Storm Edouard as it nears the Texas coast. Will we see some impacts in Houston from this storm? Yes. Are they likely to be serious for most of us? Probably not.

Latest on Tropical Storm Edouard

As of 10 pm CT, Tropical Storm Edouard is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph, and has sustained winds of 40 mph. Forecasters expect it to strengthen into a stronger tropical storm before landfall on Tuesday, likely during its final hours before landfall, or possibly even a Category 1 hurricane.

The center of Edouard is likely to come ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border at midday on Tuesday, and then it will move to the northwest, perhaps passing near Conroe or Huntsville on Tuesday night before dissipating south of Dallas.

Let’s bring the temperature down a little bit

Earlier today I made the mistake of checking out how Tropical Storm Edouard is being covered on social media and in the news locally here in Houston, and I saw a lot of “information” about how to prepare for the storm. The reality is, for most of us, no real preparations are needed. It is important to be informed and stay up on the forecasts, of course, but you don’t need to be out there stocking up on rations or hoarding cases of bottled water.

This storm will bring some moderately elevated winds, but nothing that should lead to widespread power outages in Houston or surrounding suburbs. Seas may be elevated a couple of feet right along the coast. And most notably, we’re going to see the potential for some heavy rainfall, but this should not be an extraordinary rainfall or flooding event. We foresee some impacts to streets and highways, and we’re going to talk about that. But this is not going to be some kind of super storm.

So here’s what to expect

Overall conditions should be fairly quiet tonight. We’ll see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday, but the bulk of the rains associated with Edouard remain well offshore. By around sunrise we may see some of the outer bands from the tropical storm reaching the upper Texas coast, in places like Galveston.

Winds will also start to pick up by mid-morning. For coastal locations, from High Island up to the Texas border with Louisiana it will be possible to see tropical-storm force winds, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect there. But the likelihood of such winds further south, along Galveston Island, is lower. Later on Tuesday areas along and east of Interstate 45, including up into Montgomery County, may see wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Most of the region should see gusts in the 20s, however. This will be a windy day, but not something super impactful in Houston.

In terms of rains, we still expect the heavier rains to fall just east (and possibly north) of Houston on Tuesday. We are maintaining a Stage 2 flood alert for areas along and east of Interstate 45, which means there is the potential for flash flooding in some locations, but that most of the area should be fine most of the time. It is important to be weather aware and exercise caution in heavy rainfall. Never drive into flooded roadways. A Stage 1 flood alert is in effect for areas west of I-45.

Overall we expect wide variations in rainfall—with some areas hit and other locations missing. For areas east of I-45, most locations will probably pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes possible in locations such as Mont Belvieu and points east. For locations west of I-45, accumulations will likely be between 0.5 and 2 inches, with a few higher bullseyes. Areas northwest, west, and southwest of Houston, including Katy and Sugar Land, may see limited rainfall depending on the precise track of Edouard. This is probably not your storm.

Rain chances will be highest on Tuesday, but we could well see some wrap-around showers on Tuesday night and Wednesday. in the greater Houston region.

Our next update will come no later than 7 am CT on Tuesday.

In brief: A tropical depression is heading toward the upper Texas coast, and will bring heavy rainfall into the region on Tuesday and potentially Tuesday night. We have put a Stage 2 flood alert into place for areas along and east of Interstate 45, and Stage 1 to the west.

Tropical Depression forms

In its 1 pm CT update on Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a tropical system in the northern Gulf to a Tropical Depression, which means it has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. A depression is a designation just below that of a Tropical Storm. Tropical Depression Five is moving to the west-northwest at 5 mph. The official forecast calls for this depression to become Tropical Storm Edouard some time later today or tonight before landfall on Tuesday. It is presently forecast to have maximum winds of 45 mph, but rapid intensification is possible. Regardless of further intensification, this will be a rainmaker.

Where is TD Five headed?

Confidence is high in the track forecast that brings the tropical system to coast by Tuesday afternoon, or so, with a landfall between High Island, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana. Along such a track, the likelihood of tropical-storm force sustained winds in the Houston region is low, but we could see some gusts of 30 to 40 mph along the coast and Galveston Bay on Tuesday afternoon. After landfall this system should continue to move northwest, away from Houston, before dissipating.

What about rain?

This is the big question. We don’t have any concerns about flooding today or tonight, with only scattered showers expected. That changes on Tuesday, beginning around sunrise.

As the tropical system nears the upper Texas coast rains associated with it will begin to move onshore. The big risk with tropical moisture, especially at this time of year, is very high rainfall rates. Tropical storms can produce rainfall rates of 3 or 4 inches per hour (or in rare cases, even higher) which will quickly back up streets and highways. This is the case even with our soils in a very dry state after August. In terms of total amounts, we feel pretty confident that a swath of land between Houston and Beaumont will receive rains of 4 to 6 inches, with some higher bullseyes. Most areas should receive considerably less.

Based upon the latest modeling data I feel like this band of heaviest rainfall could line up as far west as the I-45 corridor through Houston, or further east, over Mont Belvieu or Winnie. Compared to this morning, our concerns about heavy rains falling over, or near Houston, are increasing a little bit. For this reason we have decided to issue a Stage 2 flood alert for areas along and east of Interstate 45 on our flood scale; and a Stage 1 flood alert for areas west of Interstate 45.

In terms of timing, we think rain chances will start to increase on Tuesday morning, peak during the afternoon hours, and persist into Tuesday evening and remain high perhaps until midnight or early Wednesday.

We will have another update by or before 10 pm CT on Monday.