Eric Berger

In brief: There’s a lot going on! In today’s post we discuss the lack of Atlantic hurricanes to date, and why that is so significant. Also, we look ahead to a week with some rather decent rain chances. And finally, is the season’s first cool front possible late next week?

No hurry for hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane database stretches all the way back to 1851, but in years before satellite coverage it is likely some storms that remained at sea were missed. In 1944 aircraft reconnaissance of the Atlantic began, and in the 1966 we had the beginning of the satellite era to detect storms across the entire basin. So there are a lot of ways to slice and dice the Atlantic hurricane record.

Nevertheless this season does feel significant. While the upper Texas coast has had its share of tropical storms this season, most recently with Edouard, no Atlantic hurricanes have yet to form. (Edouard’s maximum sustained winds were measured at 60 mph, below the 74-mph threshold for a hurricane). Today is September 8, more than a month after the time when the first Atlantic hurricane typically forms.

Since the onset of aircraft reconnaissance in 1944, the latest date for the formation of the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin has been September 11, with Gustav in 2002; and Humberto in 2013. I am here to tell you, we are not going to see an Atlantic hurricane this year by or before September 11.

If we go back all the way to 1851, in which it is more probable that some storms were missed, we can push the “latest Atlantic hurricane” date back a little further. That came in 1941, with “Hurricane Two” forming on September 17 in the Gulf, and which later came ashore near Matagorda Bay with powerful 125 winds. Such a storm would be very destructive to the Houston region were it to develop today.

Anything, of course, can still happen in the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. But for now El Niño has the main development region on lockdown, and to add insult a major plume of Saharan dust is moving off Africa this week, which will also suppress development. Given this pattern, anything that does form in the next 10 says it will likely be home-grown, in the sense that it forms fairly near the United States.

Anyway, I’m not saying the Atlantic won’t see a hurricane before September 17, but I am saying it is unlikely. I’ll go ahead and knock on some wood just in case.

Tuesday

Houston’s high temperature reached 98 degrees on Monday, and I think we’re going to see another fairly hot day today. Whether we can get back into the upper 90s will depend on rain chances. After calm conditions on Labor Day we’ll see better odds of rain for the rest of this week. As for today, I anticipate storms forming offshore and then moving inland early this afternoon, with daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 40 percent, but with the amount of moisture available where the showers and thunderstorms hit today they could quickly drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Each of these days should have partly sunny skies, with a healthy chance (~50 percent, daily) of showers and thunderstorms. Given the atmospheric moisture levels, locally heavy rainfall is possible, although flooding is not a major concern for now. With the potential for showers I think our daily high temperatures will take a step backward, probably into the low- to mid-90s for most of the region. Overall rain accumulations this week should be higher for areas south of I-10 than north of the freeway, but pretty much everyone should see some precipitation at some point. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather with highs generally in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances may retreat a little bit, but I still think there will be a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers, primarily during the afternoon hours.

Next week

This pattern should, more or less, continue next week. The big question is whether we see our first front later next week, or over the weekend of September 18 to 20. There are a couple of caveats here. The front’s arrival is no sure thing, it’s probably about a 50-50 deal at this point and we often end up disappointed at this time of year. And secondly, it probably will not bring too much relief in terms of temperatures. But I don’t care. For the first time in months we can legitimately start to look for some fall-like weather, and I am here for it.

In brief: Happy Labor Day! This is just a short update due to the holiday, and in reality there’s not too much to say. After fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, today should see less activity.

Labor Day

Although Tropical Storm Edouard largely missed the metro Houston area in terms of rainfall, an unsettled pattern in its wake has generally brought 1 to 3 inches since then. Much of this rain has come over the holiday weekend. The rain was welcome to be sure, but did it have to come when most people were off work and school?

For those seeking to do outdoor activities, some solace and sunshine should come today. Rain chances will drop back to around 20 or 30 percent for most of the region, with only areas near and along the coast seeing slightly better odds for precipitation. Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for most of the region. Winds will be light, from the south. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s for most of Houston area.

The rest of this week

Tuesday looks hot and sunny, whereas a surge of tropical moisture could bring some more widespread showers into the region later on Tuesday evening or Wednesday. The remainder of the week, and next weekend, should see mostly sunny days, highs in the low- to mid-90s, and low-ish afternoon rain chances along the sea breeze. It will feel very much like early to mid-September. We won’t see a cold front this week, but I’m not entirely ruling something out about 12 to 14 days from now as we get deeper into the month. More on that tomorrow.

Have a wonderful holiday and we’ll be back with a full report on Tuesday.

In brief: The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard have traversed north of our region, but it has left a disturbed atmosphere in its wake. This should lead to healthy shower and thunderstorm chances in the coming days, and slightly cooler than normal temperatures.

Edouard gone, but an unsettled pattern remains

The remnants of Edouard have now moved over north Texas, with heavy rains lingering in places like Huntsville and Crockett this morning. While this system will continue to slowly progress north today, it will leave an unsettled pattern in its wake over Houston. This essentially means that there is plenty of atmospheric moisture and low pressure, conditions capable of producing showers and thunderstorms.

We saw the effect of this on Wednesday, when there were some fairly robust thunderstorms in northern Harris and southern Montgomery counties, including in The Woodlands. This pattern will persist into the weekend, bringing heathy rain chances to our region. Afternoon heat will provide the best opportunity for storms to form, but showers won’t occur exclusively during the afternoon and early evening hours. Over the next three days I expect most of Houston to pick up between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, but of course there will be some areas that get more (beneath stronger cells) and some locations that miss out completely.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will see, as mentioned above, healthy chances of afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. I’d put chances at around 50 percent for most of the area. With mostly cloudy skies, we should see highs max out at around 90 degrees, or slightly above, for most locations. Rain chances should slacken overnight, but not completely go away. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 70s.

Saturday

This will be another day with ample moisture, so similar to Thursday and Friday I expect a healthy chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will get hit, of course, and the way it usually works in Houston is if you’re desperate for rain it’s dry, whereas two neighborhoods over it’s raining cats and dogs. Highs should peak in the low 90s.

Sunday and Monday

Sunday could go either way, as in it could see widespread showers and mostly cloudy skies, or we could start to see the influence of high pressure so conditions start to clear out and temperatures warm into the low- to mid-90s. I do expect that by Labor Day most of the region will be mostly sunny, with a lower likelihood of rain and weather that’s a bit warmer. Hopefully we can get you a more precise holiday weekend forecast in tomorrow’s post.

Next week

My general expectations for next week are a continued pattern in which we see partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 90s, and decent-to-good rain chances during the afternoon hours. We are unlikely to see a dominant ridge of high pressure develop again, as happened in August, so that should keep us open to the possibility of sea breeze showers.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the very heavy rainfall from Edouard that occurred overnight over East Texas. We also look ahead to a warm, but not too warm period for the Houston metro area during which we will continue to see some decent daily rain chances. (Yes, really).

The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are slowly moving to the north-northwest this morning, and rains near the center have produced significant flooding over counties to the northeast of Houston, particularly Polk and Hardin counties. Some towns north of Beaumont, including Kountze, Saratoga, and Lumberton, have received in excess of 12 inches of rainfall. Closer to Houston, locations such as Conroe, Cleveland, and Dayton have all seen several inches of rainfall.

These rains should slowly lift north today, into Walker, Trinity, and Houston (note: Houston County lies well to the north of the city of Houston) counties along with the remnants of Edouard. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible in these counties from the slow-moving system. Strong winds have also been observed near the center of the system, with gusts in the 40s recorded near Lake Livingston. But these are now fading.

Let’s take a look at the forecast for the Houston metro area.

Wednesday

Although Edouard proved a major disappointment on the rainfall front in Houston, its passage does not spell the end of our rain chances. It leaves in its wake a fair amount of atmospheric moisture, and this should produce a healthy likelihood of showers later today. Much of the area has about a 50 percent chance of rain, most likely during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Some locations may pick up as much as an inch, while other areas will miss out. Speaking of daytime heating, highs today will reach the lower 90s for most locations, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A similar pattern will persist into Labor Day weekend. We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds during this period, with most of Houston recording highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is fairly standard for this time of year. Each day is likely to have about a 50 percent chance of rain. Some of the short-range models are fairly bullish about shower chances on Thursday, but I want to see more data before I bite. By the weekend I do not expect widespread or long-lived showers, but they could still pop up at your pool or beach day.

Labor Day and beyond

If I had to guess—and I’m a meteorologist, so I guess I must—I would say that Labor Day will be a fairly sunny, low-rain chance kind of day. Expect widespread highs in the low- to mid-90s probably, so beaches and barbecues and the like will probably find favorable weather. There’s not a clear signal for what is coming later next week, but overall I do favor the return of healthy daily rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. So despite our disappointment at not seeing some rain from Edouard after a very dry August, I believe the overall pattern ahead of us favors a wetter pattern over the next 10 days.