Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our unseasonably warm weather this week, which will persist into the weekend. The big thing we’re watching for is rain chances this weekend, which will be pretty high, although exact accumulations are impossible to forecast right now.

Rodeo forecasts

The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is back, and it will be with us for the next three weeks. We will be providing daily forecasts for attendees because so many people go. The average daily attendance is about 70,000, and last year the event set a record for attendance with 2.7 million people. Also, our long-time sidekick Reliant—our pard in cowboy parlance—is one of the main sponsors of the event. Conditions look fine for the first few days this week, but by the weekend we should see widespread showers. This isn’t so great for the fairway, but it will be very helpful for our soils and foliage as we move deeper into spring.

Monday

Conditions are fairly warm for early March out there, with temperatures in the low- to mid-60s this morning, and we are going to see warm-ish weather all week as a southerly flow dominates our weather. High temperatures today will reach the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and modest winds from the southeast.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening we really have no weather concerns for you. Expect partly sunny skies before sunset with mild temperatures in the mid-70s before the show. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Afterward there will be increasing clouds with temperatures in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will not drop much further, only reaching the mid-60s for most of the region.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our forecast won’t change much this week. A front will approach the area, but should stall out before moving into the Houston region. As a result each of these days should see high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, with somewhat humid air. Overnight lows will fall only into the upper 60s. As a persistent southerly flow remains in place we can expect skies to be cloudy most of the time, and our nights to be warm. Daily rain chances will, overall, be on the order of 20 to 30 percent. Areas well to the northwest of Houston, such as College Station, have a better chance of seeing rain this week. Anyway, this will be our warmest and muggiest week of the year so far.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

The weekend looks rainy for much of the state of Texas as a series of disturbances push through. We still don’t have high confidence in rain accumulations for the Houston area, but there is the potential for 1 to 3 inches from Saturday through Monday, with higher isolated amounts. Rain totals area likely to be even greater for central and northern Texas, where locations could see 3 to 5 inches, and there is the potential for some flooding. (Matt will have more on the broader Texas implications on The Eyewall later this morning). Anyway, for Houston, I don’t expect wall to wall rain, but rather we should see cloudy skies this weekend with muggy temperatures and on-and-off showers. If you have outdoor plans we’ll be able to better refine the forecast the closer we get.

Later next week

After unseasonably warm weather for the next week or so, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week a cold front should push into the area. It’s a long ways off, but this should bring cooler nights back into Houston, with lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees or so. As always, at 10 days out, the details are pretty fuzzy.

In brief: In today’s post we’re celebrating like it’s the 80s all over again, because that’s how February is going to end. In fact, with three days to go, this month already has had the third-warmest days on record in Houston. A weak front will bring somewhat drier air into Houston for the weekend.

Frying in February

On average, February is the third coolest month of the year in Houston. Put another way, of the winter months, it is the warmest; but still significantly cooler than the rest of the year. The normal high temperature for the month, based upon temperatures from 1990 to 2020, is 67.9 degrees. This year, our average high temperature with three days to go is 74.2 degrees. (Only 1962 at 74.4 degrees, and 2017 at 76.8 degrees rank higher).

It’s not just been Houston. Persistent high pressure for much of this month has kept the entire state of Texas and our neighbors much warmer than average (see map above). Highs in the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma have been especially hot, relative to normal temperatures this time of year. As we’ll report below, the heat party we’ve been dancing to this month will turn into a rave today as high temperatures soar as much as 20 degrees above normal. In fact we probably will end February with four straight days of highs of 80 degrees or above.

Thursday

Our winds have settled down some this morning, but they’re still a bit blowy from the southwest. We could see gusts up to 20 mph, but that will feel like nothing after widespread gusts of 40 mph on Wednesday. Because skies will be a little more cloudy today, I think that may shave 1 or 2 degrees off our previously forecast highs, and that could keep most of our locations at or below record high temperatures this afternoon. It’s still going to be warm, however, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations except for the immediate coast. A weak front will arrive late tonight, but not in enough time to do much with lows, so expect them in the range of 65 degrees for most locations.

Friday

This will be a sunny day, and lower dewpoints should allow temperatures to push into the low- to mid-80s again. However, with the drier air it should feel somewhat less humid (the further inland you are, the less humid it will be), and low temperatures on Friday night should drop down to around 60 degrees. Note this is still pretty warm for this time of year, as the front just is not going to bring all that much oomph along with it in terms of colder air.

Saturday and Sunday

These should be partly to mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Yes, there will be some humidity, but no, it will be very far from oppressive by Houston standards. Saturday night should see temperatures drop down to near 60 degrees again, but Sunday night will be warmer. Saturday’s winds look moderate, but by Sunday afternoon we might see some southerly gusts up to around 20 mph.

Next week

Not much changes through at least the middle of next week. We’re going to see partly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and lows in the lower- to mid-60s. Some slight rain chances may return by the middle of the week, but we may have to wait until the weekend for a real uptick in the precipitation outlook. But this is far enough into the future that our forecast turns pretty fuzzy, pretty quickly.

I hope everyone has a terrific Thursday!

In brief: Winds will really kick up on Wednesday as the onshore flow gets going, and this will lead to very warm conditions on Thursday. A weak front will bring us back to slightly milder conditions this weekend.

What’s with the alliteration?

Well, to be honest, I’m trying to add a little fun to what is otherwise a pretty boring forecast. We are going to see a spike in temperatures on Thursday, but for the most part our weather over the next 10 days is going to bring a lot of the same type of conditions: partly to mostly sunny days, highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, lows in the low 60s, and medium-level humidity. I’m starting to have some hope for the eventual return of rainfall, but that is still more than a week from now, so I don’t want to offer anyone anything concrete yet on that front. Also, if you missed it on Monday, be sure and check out our monthly Q&A.

Wednesday

Temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. What will differentiate today is a potent onshore flow that will really start ripping by late morning. Most of the Houston area will likely see wind gusts up to 30 mph, but some locations could even briefly see 35 mph for a couple of hours this afternoon. Winds will start to slacken a bit this evening, and overnight lows probably will only drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

All of this warm air blowing in will make Thursday feel unseasonably hot outside. Temperatures should push into the mid-80s in Houston, with higher temperatures possible to the west of the city. Houston’s record high temperature for February 26 (set in 1986) is 86 degrees, and I think there’s probably a 50-50 chance that we beat that. Anyway, it will be close. Lows on Thursday night will only fall into the mid-60s for most locations, as a weak front won’t arrive until Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This front, which is likely to move into Houston and stall out, will be the driver of our weekend weather. It probably will be the case that if you’re in Tomball or The Woodlands you’re going to see longer stretches of drier air than, say, a League City or Alvin. I am not fully confident in how far the drier air will push, but overall I don’t expect Houston to feel too humid. Each day should have mostly sunny skies, with highs around 80 degrees (give or take) and lows near 60 degrees or a bit above. It won’t feel cold, but it also won’t be too hot and humid. In short, it will be one of those weekends where you can undertake almost any activity outdoors that you’re interested in.

Next week

This 80-60s weather likely continues at least into the middle of next week. What may change is that our environment becomes more favorable for rainfall by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Whether this includes a frontal passage remains unclear.

In brief: After our cold start this morning, warmer weather will come roaring back today and Wednesday, which will be characterized by strong onshore flow. Thursday looks particularly warm, but conditions turn more pleasant this weekend.

Onshore flow returns in a big way

It is quite cold across the region this morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-30s across the region. The other thing to note is that winds are calm. That will start to change by mid morning as southerly winds start to pick up, bringing in warmer and more humid air in from the Gulf. By this afternoon we could see gusts up to 25 mph or higher, and the warming trend will be full on. Overnight lows tonight, as a result, will generally be 20 to 30 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Tuesday

For those of us up at this hour, it’s a beautiful and clear morning, with a lovely sunrise. Those clear skies will persist through the afternoon hours, and we are going to see high temperatures rise this afternoon to between 70 and 75 degrees. As noted above, winds will be gusty, from the south. As moisture levels in the atmosphere increase, we’ll see some clouds develop this evening and during the overnight hours.

Wednesday

If you liked the onshore flow on Tuesday, you’re in luck. It could be even more frisky on Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph from the south. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny with high temperatures of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 60s, and it will feel modestly humid.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with most of the area pushing into the mid-80s (possibly upper 80s for a few areas well inland) along with mostly sunny skies. Some parts of South Texas will be sizzling, and well into the 90s. A weak front will push through on Thursday night, allowing lows to drop to around 60 degrees for inland parts of Houston, with conditions a bit warmer near the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A generally wonderful weekend awaits us. Those strong winds we are going to see on Tuesday and Wednesday should be gone. Skies should be mostly sunny. And temperatures will be pleasant, with highs in the upper 70s to the low 80s, and lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Dewpoints won’t be super low, but they should be low enough such that it doesn’t feel particularly humid outside. In short, this should be a pretty spectacular weekend for any outdoor plans to have.

Next week

The forecast starts to turn fuzzy after Sunday. Another modest front could push through early next week, bringing a few nights in the 50s, or maybe it will stall before reaching Houston. Mostly we should remain in the vicinity of daytime highs around 80, and lows around 60. Unfortunately we probably are at least 10 days away from seeing any meaningful rainfall.