Eric Berger

In brief: After one more very hot and sunny day, a modest pattern change arrives in Houston. This will bring improved rain chances into the area on Thursday and Friday, along with slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend.

Rain, actually?

Most of Houston has not recorded measurable rainfall in more than two weeks. Officially, the city has received just 0.21 inches this month. Thanks to earlier rains in June and July, the greater Houston region still remains out of drought conditions. However we are starting to see rapidly drying vegetation, and background conditions that support wildfires are increasing. All of this is to say, we could use some rain.

Over the next couple of days a weak and dying front will move into the greater Houston region. It is not going to bring any meaningful change in our humidity, but it will perturb the atmosphere enough to bring some decent rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Most of the region is unlikely to see too much rainfall, but a few locations could pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, or even higher isolated totals. Next week should also see slightly better rain chances as well, so with some luck our region’s very dry pattern in August should break, at least a little.

Wednesday

All of that talk about rain is going to have to wait one more day, however, as we experience another hot and sunny day with high temperatures in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Winds will be light from the southwest, picking up a little bit during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows on Wednesday night will drop only to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

This will be another hot day, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. We may see a few clouds in the sky, however, along with increasing rain chances that may take some sting out of afternoon highs. These rain chances will persist into the overnight hours.

Friday

Another day with a healthy chance of scattered showers. Additionally, partly cloudy skies may hold highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is more typical for late August. Rain chances should diminish by Friday evening, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s for most locations (possibly upper 90s for far inland areas). Rain chances will fall back to about 10 percent daily.

Next week

This period should bring typical late summer weather to Houston, which is to say highs in the low- to mid-90s and daily rain chances roughly in the range of 30 percent. While this is still pretty hot, it is notably more moderate than the last 10 days or so of ‘peak’ summer we have experienced in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we review the state of the Atlantic hurricane season, which normally is taking off at this time of summer. Also we look ahead to a few more sizzling hot days before a slight cooldown this weekend to go along with some spotty shower chances. We take what we can get in late August.

Status of Atlantic hurricane season

Well, we’ve officially reached the point of summer when activity in the Atlantic Ocean typically starts ramping up. So far this year is off to a slow start, with just three tropical storms. How slow? When we look at a metric useful for gauging overall activity, “accumulated cyclone energy,” activity to date is just 14 percent of normal levels. Since 1950 only seven years have started off with less overall action in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.

Now I want to be clear: I am not taunting Mother Nature with the following words. But in reality, the runway for the rest of this hurricane season, and the state of Texas, does not stretch endlessly toward the horizon. Rather, realistically, we have about one more month before the odds of a hurricane strike on the great state drop significantly based on historical norms.

We can be pretty confident that no storms are going to move into the Gulf during the next 10 days (a promising tropical wave that recently moved off of Africa, if it develops, almost certainly will not come this way). That leaves about three weeks in September—which is quite literally the peak of the Atlantic season—when we’ll need to keep a close eye on things. Will El Niño continue to suppress activity? Some of our latest sub-seasonal modeling indicates that this is likely to be the case, but we won’t know for sure until we actually get into September. With that said we are in about as good a position as one could be, regarding hurricanes, in late August.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The very hot and sunny conditions we’ve experienced of late will persist for the next couple of days. We can expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees, plenty of humidity, and warm, sultry nights. Winds will be light during the morning, but gust up to 15 or 20 mph from the southwest during the afternoon hours.

Thursday

Some time on Thursday the high pressure ridge that has been dominating our weather during the second half of August will start to pull back to the west. I’m not sure this will happen in time to impact temperatures on Thursday, which still should reach near 100 degrees. But we may start to see a few more clouds, and by Thursday afternoon or Thursday night there might be some modest rain chances returning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will bring weather that is more typical for late August, which is to say high temperatures generally in the mid-90s and spotty showers. Rain chances won’t be high, perhaps 20 or 30 percent each day. But that’s higher that we’ve seen in a while. Skies should remain mostly sunny, and any showers that pop up probably won’t last too long.

Next week

Most likely our temperatures will remain in the mid- to upper 90s for much of next week, with mostly sunny skies and slight chances of afternoon showers. Early September is typically not much different than late August.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the very hot week ahead for Houston, but explain why this weekend should offer some slight relief. Could we actually see a little rain as well? Maybe. And we take a peek into the tropics, where the Atlantic is slowly waking up.

It’s been a hot one

High temperatures in Houston over the last four days have been sizzling: 100, 101, 103, and 101 degrees. We are going to continue to flirt with highs of 100 degrees, or just above, for most of this week as high pressure reigns supreme. Longtime residents of Houston will know that the period of late August often brings the most torrid weather to our region, and this year is delivering in spades.

However, we do have some hope on the horizon. No, I’m not talking about a bona fide cold front. It’s just too early to have any real hopes for that—check back in a couple of weeks on that score. However there is increasing evidence that high pressure will break down somewhat by Friday or so of this week, allowing for more seasonal high temperatures in the mid-90s and a decent chance of rain.

But it’s going to be scorching until then.

Monday

Today will bring more or less similar conditions to what we saw over the weekend, which means baking heat over the region pushing highs to 100 degrees or a little higher. (Coastal areas will remain cooler during the daytime, in the mid- to upper-90s). Skies will be sunny, with humid air. Nights will briefly fall into the upper 70s. Winds will be fairly calm in the morning, with gusts up to 20 mph from the south-southwest during the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

Conditions are more or less the same, but we might shave 1 or 2 degrees off of daily highs such that, by Thursday, most of Houston is in the upper 90s. Sunny skies and plenty of humidity remains.

Friday

Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s on Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies. As high pressure breaks down we should see some (fairly weak) disturbances start to rotate through. This could bring a modest chance of rain into the region, something like 20 or 30 percent. It’s not much, but we’ve been so bone dry of late anything would be welcome.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring fairly typical weather for late August, with highs generally in the mid-90s and a chance of afternoon showers along the sea breeze. If you’re planning on outdoor activities you can expect plenty of sunshine, but there will be the possibility of some brief, passing showers.

Next week

Summer is not over, of course, when we reach September. For most of next week, at this point, I expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s with some slight rain chances. So still very warm outside.

Atlantic tropics

Over at the Eyewall, Matt has a good summary of the Atlantic tropics. The area of most note is a wave emerging off of Africa today, which has a decent shot of development over the next week. Overall this is something we’re definitely going to watch given the time of year, but it’s not something we’re at all concerned about at this point.

In brief: In today’s post we put Houston’s ongoing heat wave into context, noting that our temperatures are very warm but should generally fall short of record highs. Also could we start to see a slight reprieve later next week?

Heat wave

There is no sugarcoating our weather for the next seven to 10 days. The remainder of August in Houston is going to be brutally hot, although our daily highs should fall a few degrees below record high temperatures (which range between 103 and 109 degrees for the last 10 days of August). Normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low- to mid-90s, so we’re going to be well above that.

In terms precipitation the default forecast is no rain for the remainder of the month. However, we are going to see some weak disturbances rotating through the region over the next week, so the daily rain chances are probably something on the order of 5 to 10 percent. This means that there will be a slight possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms on some afternoons. Most of us, to be clear, will see nothing for at least the next week.

There is no conclusive end to this weather pattern. The European forecast model suggests the upper air pattern will shift enough about a week from now to bring us closer to normal temperatures for this time of year, so possibly a cooler overall pattern. But I want to see more data before I find this forecast persuasive. Typically when we get locked into this high pressure patterns they are difficult to break in late summer.

Thursday and Friday

Expect sunny skies, with high temperatures in Houston in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Only coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler, thanks to the slightly moderating influence of the Gulf. Nights will be warm and muggy, with lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Rain chances, as noted above, are very low, but not quite zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast remains the same, more or less, but daytime temperatures might actually be 1 or 2 degrees warmer.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should see continued very, very warm weather. By mid-week, or later, we could start to see daytime highs come down into the upper-90s, and the possibly mid-90s by next weekend. But am I making any promises? No, I am not.

Atlantic tropics

The tropics remain dead quiet for now, but as Matt wrote on The Eyewall this morning, we are tracking a couple of tropical waves that should move off Africa in the coming days. One of them has a decent chance of developing. However, our overall concerns for the Gulf remain very, very low for the time being.