Eric Berger

In brief: We’re interrupting your Sunday morning to bring an updated forecast for the arrival time of a strong cold front this evening. Not much has changed since our forecast on Friday, but we want people to be aware of what is coming in terms of wind.

What to expect and when to expect it

Today will be a warm one, with high temperatures in the mid-80s, partly to mostly sunny skies, and a decent amount of humidity. Yes, it’s a little warm for March, but otherwise nothing out of the ordinary. However a fast-moving front this evening will bring a rapid change.

In terms of timing, I expect the front to probably reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands between 5 and 7 pm CT, central Houston, including Sugar Land and Baytown, between 6 and 8 pm, and Galveston by 7 to 9 pm this evening. There will be a brief possibility of showers and thunderstorms (there is a slight chance of some of these becoming severe, but for most of us probably not). Anyway this front will be moving so the showers will not last long. There has been some internet chatter about a derecho, but we don’t have any expectations for that kind of event.

What will be immediately perceptible is an abrupt wind shift, from a southerly flow to strong gusts from the north. Wind gusts behind the front will be up to 45 mph across Houston, and this is strong enough to blow things around. It is advisable to secure loose objects and really take care driving. The strongest wind gusts will persist overnight before settling down a little bit on Monday morning (to maybe around 30 mph).

This won’t be a “Blue Norther” type front with temperatures dropping sharply immediately. I expect them to fall 5 to 10 degrees after the front’s passage, and then steadily drop with temperatures in the low 50s by midnight, to around 40 degrees by Monday morning. So with the wind chill it will be very cold on Monday morning, possibly feeling like it’s about 30 degrees outside. You’ll definitely want to bundle up.

We’ll be back at that time with a full weather update for you.

In brief: Today we discuss our breezy conditions, which will lead to a chilly night. Also, after days of clouds we are likely to see sunshine prevail for awhile now in Houston. After a warm-up this weekend I expect an even sharper cold front early next week that may return temperatures in the 30s briefly.

Cooler for the next week

The first third of March has been ridiculously warm, with an average temperature running 13 degrees above normal, and one night during which lows did not fall below the mid-70s. Anyway, for the next week so, this will largely be behind us. Wednesday night’s front will bring us a chilly couple of chilly nights. And then an even stronger front on Sunday night will bring still colder conditions early next week. Some locations may reach the upper 30s in what I suspect will be our final brush with anything below the mid-40s for the rest of spring. So knowing what lies ahead over the next six or seven months, if you like the colder conditions, now is the time to venture outside.

Thursday

The strongest winds moved through overnight, with gusts up to 40 mph in many locations. These winds have backed off a little this morning, and will continue to slowly subside today before ebbing completely this evening. Skies are clear, and this should allow high temperatures to reach the upper 60s this afternoon with really dry air.

Houston rodeo weather

Temperatures will be about 60 degrees before the show this evening at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, and fortunately winds will have died down by then. It will be chilly afterwards, with clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-50s. Lows will drop a little further overnight, into the upper 40s in most of Houston, with cooler conditions further inland and a bit warmer near the coast.

Friday

This will be an exceptional day, period. Look for highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, light winds, and low humidity. I’m not sure it gets better than that. It probably will be one of the 10 nicest days of the year in Houston. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s as the onshore flow resumes.

Saturday and Sunday

These will be a pair of sunny days. Saturday will probably max out around 80 degrees, with Sunday pushing into the mid-80s. Winds will generally be from the south, at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. A strong cold front will push through at the end of the weekend, probably on Sunday evening. This may bring a brief period of light rain during the afternoon or evening before northerly winds blow everything offshore. Lows on Monday should drop into the 40s.

Next week

The first half of next week looks rather chilly, and I could see some scenarios in which lows for much of Houston fall into the upper 30s on Tuesday morning. (It could also easily be in the lower 40s). The bottom line is that it will be be cold for this time of year, and especially so after the month’s abnormally warm start. We should climb back to daily highs of around 80 degrees by Thursday or Friday of next week.For the remainder of next week I don’t expect much if any precipitation after the front on Sunday evening (which again, probably won’t bring much with it either).

In brief: Houston can expect to see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some of them becoming severe. It will be an afternoon to be weather aware across the region. Tonight very breezy conditions arrive as a cold front blows in to cool us down for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday’s storms

If you largely missed out on rain this past weekend an approaching cold front will offer another chance today as showers and thunderstorms fire up ahead of the front. Houston already is seeing some sporadic activity during the pre-dawn hours, and a cluster of storms is presently affecting the College Station area.

Metro-area activity should increase in coverage later this morning as the system moves in from the west, and Houston should see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms from around noon to 6 pm. There is the potential for heavy rainfall, however the storms will be moving at a decent clip. So for most locations I expect accumulations of 1 inch of rain, or less (with some locations only seeing a smattering of rain). A few places, of course, may very well see higher bullseyes of rainfall.

Notably, there is also the threat of severe weather with some of these storms. Although conditions will be most favorable along and north of Interstate 10, we cannot rule out damaging winds, hail, and possibly even a tornado throughout the Houston area today. Please be weather aware this afternoon if you are out and about, and check the radar before hitting the road. Not everyone will see inclement weather, but where severe thunderstorms do develop conditions could deteriorate quickly. The majority of storms should have exited the area by or before sunset.

Wednesday

Aside from the potential for storms, the other notable feature about today’s weather is the temperatures. Lows this morning have only fallen into the mid-70s for much of the region, which is very warm. Highs today, with mostly cloudy skies, will reach around 80 degrees with plenty of humidity. As noted above, storm activity will increase in coverage this afternoon.

Houston rodeo forecast

There is the potential for storms in the Houston metro area, including near NRG Stadium, this afternoon. But by around 6 pm I do expect them to be clearing out. That’s not the end of things, however, as we will see gusty winds from the north later this evening. By around 9 or 10 pm winds should increase further in intensity, perhaps up to 35 mph. You probably will feel this after the show as colder and much drier air moves in. These winds will blow all night, bringing temperatures down into the low 50s by Thursday morning.

Thursday

This will be a spring-like day with highs in the upper 60s and brisk, northerly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Skies will be sunny. Winds should start to slacken some by the evening, with a majority of the area falling into the upper 40s on Thursday night.

Friday

This will be a sunny, pleasant day with calm winds. Look for high temperatures in the mid-70s. No complaints, really. It will be spectacular. Lows on Friday night will fall into the mid-50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperatures this weekend will be warmer, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday and mid-80s on Sunday, and mostly sunny skies. Still, humidity does not look to get too high. The region’s next front arrives late this weekend, perhaps on Sunday evening or Monday morning. At this point I don’t foresee much in the way of storms with this one.

Next week

I’ll have more on this tomorrow, but Sunday’s front could usher in some significantly cooler air, with a few nights in the lower 40s in Houston, and possibly even upper 30s for more rural locations. We’ll have to wait for details, however, as I want to see a little more consistency in the models before hazarding a firm forecast.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the very, very warm temperatures across the Houston region this morning and put them into context. We also look ahead to the potential for some storms with a front on Wednesday, with cooler and drier air to follow.

Crazy high low temperatures

Temperatures this morning are really, really warm for this time of year. Lows in much of Houston range from 70 to 75 degrees. (We won’t know the official minimum temperature for another hour or two, but as of 6:25 am CT the low at Bush Intercontinental Airport is 73 degrees). The record high minimum temperature for this date is 71 degrees, set in 2009. The normal high temperature for today is 73 degrees, so we’re already there before sunrise.

Is anyone ready for a cool front?

Tuesday

Today will be another mostly cloudy and warm day, with highs in the low- to mid-80s across the region. It will also be breezy, with southerly gusts up to 25 mph, or perhaps a bit higher. With dewpoints of around 70 degrees it will definitely feel rather humid outside today.

Houston rodeo

Aside from the humidity and at-times gusty winds, there are no real weather concerns for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening. Temperatures before the show will be in the mid- to upper-70s, and won’t be much lower than that afterward. Overnight minimums will again be near, or possibly set records in Houston, only dropping into the lower 70s.

Wednesday

This is a bit of a tricky day to forecast. My best guess is that we see the potential for scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms on Wednesday morning. None of these is likely to be too serious, and I expect daytime highs to approach about 80 degrees. Shortly after noon a more organized line of storms is likely to approach the area from the west, and this should move through the city during the afternoon hours before exiting by early evening.

There are a lot of moving pieces here, but if they all align we could see some severe weather, particularly for areas north and east of downtown Houston, along the I-69 and I-10 corridors. This most likely would take the form of hail and damaging winds. Storm chances are lesser (but non-zero) for central and southern Houston. Anyway, we’ll endeavor to have more precise information for you in tomorrow morning’s update.

Thursday

Drier air will follow the front through, with lows on Wednesday night falling into the 50s. Thursday will be a sunny and breezy day, with highs likely in the vicinity of 65 to 70 degrees and much lower humidity. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend should bring lots of sunshine into the region along with a returning southerly flow. Highs will gradually warm each day, from 75 degrees on Friday to 85 degrees by Sunday. Even so dewpoints don’t look too crazy, so it probably won’t feel as sticky outside as it is now. There is no chance of inclement weather this weekend, so make your plans accordingly.

Next week

Another front follows next week, likely on Monday. This one might have a little more oomph and we might see a few nights in the 40s. We’ll see!