Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s forecast we note that Houston’s last measurable rainfall occurred nearly three weeks ago for most of the region. That almost certainly will end this week, with the threat of some showers lingering into Easter Sunday.

Easter Sunday

For most of Houston, our last measurable rainfall came on March 11, and it is unlikely to rain for another day or two at least. As we discussed on Friday, parts of the Houston area have already reached “extreme” drought status, and more will follow without significant rainfall soon.

High pressure has been dominant of late, but that should change this week, allowing for somewhat increased rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. But our best chances will come this weekend, with the passage of a decently strong front. This may bring 0.5 to 1.5 inch into the area. But when will it fall? That will depend on the timing of the front. Right now I’d guess sometime on Saturday night, yet even if that’s the case we could see showers lingering into Easter Sunday morning.

Bottom line? It could be a soggy Easter Sunday. It could also just be mostly cloudy and cooler. It definitely will not be like yesterday, which turned out to be a fabulous Sunday weather-wise. Seriously, was it not just grand?

Monday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the low- to mid-60s, and we are going to see a fairly robust onshore flow with winds gusting up to 20 mph from the south later today. With mostly sunny skies I expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-80s. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s, with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

This will be another warm and humid day, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s. We can again expect gusty, southerly winds. There will be a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, and if any rain does fall it likely will be very light in nature. Lows on Tuesday night will again be unseasonably warm.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase this week we will see a corresponding increase in cloud cover. That’s not to say we won’t see some sunshine for the rest of the week, but in most cases it will be the exception rather than the rule. Highs on both of these days will be in the vicinity of the low 80s, and there will be some healthy rain chances, probably 30 to 60 percent each days. Overall dynamics are probably better for areas inland of Interstate 10, but most of the area has a decent shot at some showers. Accumulations for both days will be on the order perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain to a few tenths of an inch, with wide variations. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Friday

Rain chances fall back a bit on Friday, and with perhaps a bit more sunshine we may see highs reach the mid-80s. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Alright, under the assumption that all of this could change somewhat due to timing, here’s what I expect to to happen. Saturday is likely to see continued, somewhat humid weather with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Light, scattered showers will be possible during the daytime with cloudy skies. At some point, perhaps during the evening, perhaps around midnight, or perhaps shortly after, a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms (it’s too early to really have a good sense of whether there will be any severe weather) will move through with the front. That may bring some briefly heavy rain.

By Sunday morning, most likely, this will have moved through. Most likely showers will end at that time, but cloud cover will linger throughout Sunday, and the potential for some showers may as well. We shall see. Highs on Easter Sunday will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds don’t look too wild after the front, maybe just 10 to 15 mph from the north. Humidity will be noticeably lower. Skies should clear out some overnight, allowing lows to drop into the 50 to 55 degree range.

Next week

Our cooler temperatures should persist at least for a few days next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should feel fairly spring-like!

In brief: In today’s post we have some good news, and some bad news. Let’s start with the good. There are many, many outdoor activities this weekend in the Houston region, from sporting events to public gatherings. All of these should have fine weather. The bad news is that a drought that has been building all winter is starting to become acute.

A deepening drought

We’ve been talking about drying soils a lot here because the state of Texas, particularly the eastern half of the state, has had such a dry winter and start to spring. At the beginning of October, last year, just 23.6 percent of Texas was in a ‘moderate’ drought, and only 13 percent in a ‘severe’ drought. Those numbers today, respectively, are 84.5 and 55.5 percent.

For the greater Houston area the problem has been building this winter, but until recently was not acute. As days lengthen and warm up, that is now changing, and areas of ‘severe’ and an even worse category, ‘extreme’ drought now encroaching upon Harris County. Much of Chambers, Waller, and Fort Bend counties now find themselves in an ‘extreme’ drought.

I am concerned about this because the next six months or so represents the warmest period of the year, with the Sun reaching a much higher angle in the sky, meaning that droughts develop much more quickly. Typically we see springtime rains in Houston (and don’t look now, but we’re only a couple of months from the opening of the Atlantic hurricane season), but for now the overall forecast shows no drought busters. No one wants flooding, of course. But we could use some rain events in the coming weeks.

Friday

Highs today should reach the mid- to upper-80s across the Houston area with mostly sunny skies. You know the drill as our weather has not changed much over the last week. It will be another mild evening. However conditions should begin to change tonight, likely around or after midnight, as winds shift to come from the north-northeast and bring in much drier air. As a result I expect temperatures to drop into the upper 50s by Saturday morning, with noticeably lower humidity.

Saturday

Saturday morning may see gusty winds up to about 25 mph, but these should start to fade by the afternoon hours. As for high temperatures, this will depend on the extent of any lingering cloud cover as skies will eventually turn fairly sunny. I expect highs will get into the mid- to upper-70s with low humidity. Saturday evening looks exceptional, and then most areas outside of the urban core should drop into the mid- to upper-50s on Saturday night. We know there are a ton, just a ton of outdoor activities from major sporting events to marches and parades this weekend, and the weather just looks exceptionally fine. (And if you took my long-standing advice for outdoor weddings in Houston, which is to hold them during the last two weeks of March, well done).

Sunday

Just as quickly as the front came in on Saturday, it’s likely to ease out on Sunday as the onshore flow resumes. Highs should reach around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies and rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Next week

We’re back into the mid-80s for much of next week, but there will be some overall changes to the forecast as high pressure recedes somewhat. At some point we’ll start to see partly to mostly cloudy days, and our nights will turn a little warmer and muggier (i.e. overnight lows drop to 70 degrees in Houston, rather than 65). By Wednesday or Thursday we’ll also finally start to see some slight rain chances enter the forecast.

As we get into next weekend, and remember Easter Sunday is then, rain chances may go up further. It’s still too fuzzy for confidence, but my sense is that we’ll see a stronger front trying to move through our region in 8 to 10 days, and that this will bring with it a healthier chance of more widespread rain. But whether this happens on Easter Sunday, or the day after (or heck, even not at all) remains impossible to say at this point.

For now, please enjoy what looks to be a fine weekend weather-wise in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss an exciting, upcoming space launch that we all should be rooting for. As for our weather, our warm conditions will turn slightly cooler this weekend before warming up again. And rain chances, maybe they return about a week from now.

Putting the “space” in Space City Weather

I want to thank Matt for covering the last couple of days while I was in Washington D.C. for NASA’s Ignition event. There, the space agency rolled out an exciting new plan for space exploration over the next decade, with the central achievement being the establishment of a lunar base. Houston’s Johnson Space Center, not to mention local companies such as Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and others, are a big part of all of this. I’ve written about space for a long time, and this is the first time I think NASA has set both a meaningful goal in deep space and laid solid plans to go about achieving it.

Everyone should also be excited about the launch of Artemis II next week, likely on Wednesday evening from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. Thousands of Houston people have worked hard toward preparing for this lunar flight during which four incredible astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen (most of whom are Space City Weather readers)—will fly around the Moon for the first time in more than five decades. Theirs is a bold mission, testing new hardware, and it will be super fun to follow their adventures. The early weather for next week in Florida looks fine for a launch, but we’ll see. I’ll be traveling for that as well, so there may be some minor disruptions in posting here.

The bottom line is that we, as a city, should be proud of what’s happening in space, and Houston’s important ongoing role. Your meteorologists certainly are.

Thursday

Our weather forecast remains much as Matt has described it over the last couple of days. We’re going to see continued warm weather for a couple of days before a slight cooldown this weekend. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions for inland areas. Skies will transition from partly cloudy this morning to mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with stronger gusts this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-60s.

Friday

Expect more of the same, with daytime temperatures possibly even a degree or two warmer. Lows on Friday night will again be in the 60s, although they will drop a little further by Saturday morning. Why? Because overnight we will see some moderately drier air moving in from the northeast. This will significantly lower our humidity for Saturday, and somewhat for Sunday.

Saturday

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Some locations may briefly drop into the 50s overnight on Saturday night, but it’s not like temperatures are really going to bottom out.

Sunday

By Sunday we should already begin to feel the effects of returning air from offshore, so look for high temperatures in the mid-80s, sunny skies, and moderate but rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will be in the mid-60s.

Next week

This warmer pattern will continue through midweek before that persistent ridge of high pressure that has been anchored to our west finally begins to break down. This will allow for the return of some modest rain chances, which may improve even further as we head toward next weekend. I don’t want to make any promises we can’t meet, but I’ll just say we could really use some rain and the odds may start to turn in our favor a little. At the same time I’m also cognizant of the Easter holiday about 10 days from now. When we have more clarity on this forecast we will, of course, share it with you.

In brief: In today’s post we take a look at the likely development of El Niño, and what that means for this summer, as well as next year. We also report on a forecast this week that will bring a lot of sunshine to Houston before a weak front arrives this weekend.

El Niño looms, and what it means for summer

It is becoming increasingly likely that a warmer phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, is likely to develop later this year, possibly by the summer. Although localized to the Pacific Ocean, the periodic warming and cooling there has global impacts, including providing upward pressure on global temperatures (The Climate Brink has a good overview of this). The latest modeling suggests that the El Niño likely to peak later this year will be a rather strong one, potentially one of the two strongest experienced during the last 40 years.

At this point you might be expecting me to say something like, with such a strong El Niño the United States will probably experience its warmest summer on record. And while that is possible, I would point out that the response from global surface temperatures typically lags the peak of El Niño by a couple of months, and right now I don’t expect it to peak until the end of this year. So the summer of 2027? Yeah, probably brutally hot.

But what about our forthcoming summer? Temperatures running about six degrees above normal for March 2026 do not give me the warm and fuzzies about what is to come. I would note that NOAA’s recently updated outlook predicted above normal temperatures for this summer, but not abnormally so.

In reality I expect we will see one of our warmest summer ever. My basis for this prediction is pretty simple. Based on average temperature (which is, simply, a daytime high and low temperature, divided by two) the last four summers have all ranked among the 10 warmest summers on record in Houston. The torrid summer of 2023 set the mark, at 88.0 degrees, but last summer was not far behind, ranking sixth overall at 86.0 degrees.

Monday

If you’re out hunting for meteorites to the northwest of Harris County today (NASA has a detailed map of where to look) you can expect fine weather to do so. We will see mostly cloudy skies this morning give way to more sunny conditions, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. Winds this afternoon will reach about 10 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it’s modestly humid, but not oppressively so. I have been finding recent evenings to be quite pleasant outside. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid-60s for most parts of the area, a little warmer near the coast and a little cooler further inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There will be a little variation for the rest of the week. Some days (Tuesday, perhaps) may have a few more clouds. But for the most part these will be mostly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s, modest humidity, and lows in the mid-60s. It will feel more like early May than late March, but that’s not to say it won’t be fairly nice outside. Rain chances are basically nil, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out a sprinkle on Tuesday. Fog is also likely to return during the overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front will likely push into the Houston metro area on Friday night or Saturday morning. This is unlikely to bring any precipitation with it (more on that in a moment) but it should usher in some slightly cooler weather. Look for highs this weekend to likely top out in the 70s, with lows perhaps in the 50s. Regardless, skies should remain mostly sunny. If you’re planning to attend the Houston Open golf tournament this week and weekend you really have no weather concerns aside from warmer-than-normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday, and the need for sunscreen on all four days.

Next week

Next week does begin to look a little more promising for rainfall. Obviously we’re days and days away, but most of our model guidance points to increasing rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. So it’s something we’ll monitor, but not about which I’m prepared to make any promises yet.