Eric Berger

In brief: We have now reached mid-September and a summer-like pattern remains largely in place across the state. Does this mean September in Houston is actually worse than August?

Is September bad, or not?

Matt and I routinely debate whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. I say August because it is guaranteed to be sizzling hot, and there is no hope for respite. Matt argues that September is worse because it holds the false promise of fall, when it fact the region typically does not experience meaningful cooling until October. Alas this September is doing me no favors, with statewide temperatures running well above normal and fall nowhere in sight.

This week offers a meaningful example. Last week the models were teasing us with a cool front around the Friday or Saturday period, but now as we get closer to that time frame we can see that, at best, we are going to receive a slight push of drier air. That’s not what we all wanted, but so it goes with phantom fronts in September. Anyway, I still think September is better. I like the slightly cooler daytime highs, and with shorter days the evenings cool off a little faster. But September is definitely not fall in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure more or less holding on, we are going to have a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We should see a puncher’s chance of showers on both days, with perhaps a 20 percent chance south of I-10, and slightly less inland. Winds will be light, generally from the southwest. Overnight lows may briefly drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

We are going to see a surge of atmospheric moisture on Thursday, and this will bring a few more clouds in the sky and improved potential for some rain. Shower chances are probably 50 percent for areas south of I-10, and 30 percent for areas further inland. With more clouds, high temperatures for most of the region should max out in the lower 90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are likely to see some slightly drier air this weekend, but set your expectations to “low.” We should see mostly sunny skies this weekend with highs in the low- to mid-90s thanks to slightly lower humidity. Nights may be a few degrees cooler, with lows in the mid- to upper-70s. Rain chances will be near zero. Mornings and evenings will be tolerable outside, if not overly pleasant.

Next week

Similar weather continues next week. After a dry weekend, some slight rain chances may return by the middle of next week. As for a front, maybe there’s something to watch for eight to 10 days from now? But we are still in the “hope” stage rather than the “expectant” stage.

In brief: We remain in a September holding pattern (not so patiently) waiting for fall to arrive in Houston. A very weak pattern change may arrive by Friday or so, but set your expectations to ‘very low.’

Monday

Conditions today will be fairly hot for mid-September, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s and mostly sunny skies. There are some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore this morning that should push inland later today, but overall I expect rain coverage to be fairly sparse, likely in the range of 30 percent or so. Winds will be light, from the southwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows remain warm, with temperatures only briefly falling into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The upper-air pattern will favor hot and mostly sunny conditions for the mid-week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances won’t exactly be zero, but they’re likely on the order of 20 percent daily, so for most of us, probably not. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Thursday

We may see a bit of a surge in tropical moisture, and this could help bump up our rain chances a little bit on Thursday, and perhaps increase our cloud coverage a little bit. Overall I would not expect too much in the way of accumulations, but we’ll see. Highs will likely be in the lower 90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ve been on cold-front watch for awhile, and we’re getting closer to that time in September when a front becomes more probable. I had held some hope that we might get a decent front around this coming weekend, and we are likely to see a modest pattern change. But unfortunately it won’t feel particularly fall like. We are likely to see some northeasterly winds on Friday and/or Saturday, and this should knock a little bit out of the humidity. But the effect is going to be really modest, likely only noticeable during the mornings and evenings. Highs are still likely to reach the lower 90s this weekend, with lows in the mid- to upper 70s. Rain chances this weekend are low, probably below 20 percent on each day.

Next week

Overall next week should bring more mostly sunny, late summer-like weather. Look for highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with lows in the upper 70s. After a likely rain-free weekend, we may see some daily shower chances return. I wouldn’t rule out some kind of front later next week, but I have very low confidence.

The Atlantic tropics

Something vaguely tropical may form out to sea in the open Atlantic this week, but it’s nothing we’re going to have to concern ourselves with in Texas (or the United States). Our remarkably quiet Atlantic season continues.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss widespread rain chances today, especially for coastal areas. After this Houston will remain in a rather warm, late-summer pattern for most of next week. So it goes in September in Houston, my friends.

The day the world changed

We begin today with a non-weather topic. I am speaking, of course, of September 11, a day of unprecedented and horrific terrorist attacks on the United States of America that occurred 25 years ago today. At my age today, the attacks occurred at just about the half point of my life, and it really does represent a before-and-after moment. I distinctly remember the surprise and shock of those initial attacks, the uncertainty and fear, the dawning realization of what it all meant, and the heartbreaking losses suffered by so many. Undoubtedly all readers here in their mid-30s and older have their own vivid memories.

Looking back on those attacks with hindsight, a few things stand out. As a weather nerd, it is striking to me how exceptionally clear the skies over the northeastern United States were that day; how calm the winds. This lead to no weather delays or diversions, allowing the hijackers to largely stick to their schedules, and visually navigate toward prominent landmarks. And for those of us watching the horror unfold, the black smoke from the World Trade Center towers billowed away against azure blue skies.

That day was in many ways a defining moment for America. The 21st century may have begun on January 1, 2001, according to the Gregorian calendar. But in reality, the 20th century ended on 9/11, and we entered a new, uncertain century that is now one-quarter done. America found a way to largely come together after the tragedy of 9/11, unifying in the wake of tragedy. It is my hope that after a wrenching 25 years, which have increasingly set us against one another, we can do so again. I like my States united, rather than divided.

Friday

Alright, back to weather. The atmosphere above the Houston region remains unsettled, and there is plenty of moisture available, especially near the coast. This is likely to lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning, and into the early afternoon hours, for areas along and south of Interstate 10. Coverage will be less for inland areas, but we cannot rule out some showers there as well. In terms of accumulations, some of these storms will be capable of dropping 1 to 2 inches of rain, while most areas see less. With partly cloudy skies today, I think highs will remain in the vicinity of the lower 90s. Most of our high-resolution guidance indicates that showers should clear out by later this afternoon or early evening, which should be good for Friday Night Lights.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to remain in a similar pattern this weekend, although the background support in the atmosphere for precipitation will be a little bit lower. For the forecast, that translates into less fuel for widespread showers and thunderstorms—so I’ll go with daily rain chances on the order of 40 percent rather than 60 percent. Coastal areas will again be slightly more favored than inland ones. High temperatures will likely be in the low- to mid-90s for each day, with skies partly to mostly sunny. So for Texans tailgaters it will be pretty hot, with a decent chance of a passing shower.

Next week

Expect a late-summer pattern to persist for most of next week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms likely in the vicinity of 30 percent a day, give or take. Overnight lows remain stubbornly warm and humid, only briefly falling into the upper 70s. We’re still on the lookout for some kind of a weak front next weekend, but the chances of something making it all the way to Houston remain hit or miss. Hopefully we’ll get some clarity by the time of Monday’s post. Until such time have a wonderful weekend, Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we go a little deeper into the possibility of a cold front arriving by next weekend. Also, we discuss rain chances over the next several days, which remain healthy for most of the region.

Cold front or nah?

Houston’s first fall front typically arrives during the second half of September—not always, but often. Said front is almost always weak in the sense that it only brings very modest temperature relief and a relatively short period of modestly drier air. But psychologically it’s a huge deal, because it is a promise of what is to come, namely fall.

Because the first fronts are usually weak, they are difficult to predict. We end up in a will it, or won’t it make it scenario up until a couple of days before the front’s arrival. Some of our better models are continuing to indicate the possibility of the season’s first front arriving in about nine or 10 days time. That’s more or less at the edge of what is reliably predictable, so there is some double uncertainty about this front, both in the sense of it is difficult to forecast accurately, and it remains relatively far into the future from a forecast standpoint.

So, real talk, I think there’s a pretty decent chance a front makes it in by around September 19 or 20. I would not swear to anything like that, and realistically the chance is probably somewhere in the vicinity of 40 or 50 percent. We are unlikely to really have high confidence in this forecast until at least next Monday or so.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will see similar conditions, which is to say high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees and partly sunny skies. Along with daytime heating we will scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. While most of these should move through fairly quickly, some of the stronger cells could produce 1 to 2 inches over smaller areas. Overall chances are probably higher closer to the coast than further inland. Winds will generally be light, from the south. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m not sure a whole lot changes over the weekend. Temperatures will be similar. If I squint, it’s possible that Sunday has a little more sunshine and lower rain chances, but some showers are definitely still possible. So if you’re tailgating at Reliant Stadium—which is a great name for a football stadium by the way, glad it’s back—you can expect mostly sunny conditions but we unfortunately cannot rule out the possibility of some showers moving through, even if overall chances are fairly low.

Next week

Temperatures don’t change much next week as I expect the region to be in the vicinity of the lower 90s. Rain chances may drop back to 20 or 30 percent daily, but I don’t think they’re going away entirely. The big question, toward the end of next week, is whether a weak front does make it. This would probably bring a brief bump in shower chances. Obviously we’ll be keeping a close eye on this to see what happens and when we know, you’ll know.