Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post I share a few words of appreciation for Matt Lanza, my long-time partner here. As for the forecast, we have a very welcome return of rain chances after three weeks, and the latest on the timing of a front just before Easter Sunday.

Matt heads north

You probably saw the news yesterday that Matt’s family is moving from Houston to Connecticut, and I fully support his decision and the reasons he articulated for doing so. Houston does have a fraught relationship with extreme weather—I’ve lived here for 30 years and some of these experiences helped formulate my career. Matt is a critical part of what we do here. Almost from the beginning of Space City Weather he has been an integral part of building this site, helping to set its editorial tone, and playing an important role in the forecasts we hit, and our occasional misses. In a world that can be callous, he is kind, thoughtful, and compassionate. I’m thrilled he will continue to be involved here. As for me, the majority of my family lives here in the Houston area, my kids are here, and perhaps one day so will my grandkids. I cannot imagine leaving them, so you’re stuck with me.

Tuesday

Today is probably our final day with mostly sunny skies for most of the day. This will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s for most of the area, with a warm southerly flow at the surface. Winds may gust up to 20 mph, or a touch higher, this afternoon. Hopefully this will help bring down some of the final tree pollen. We’ve got to be nearing the end of that season, right? We may also see some scattered, very light showers today but anything that reaches the surface will be very light. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees, very warm for this time of year.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be warm days, with highs likely in the range of the mid-80s and plenty of humidity. However, instead of mostly sunny skies we will see more clouds, and along with that higher rain chances. Odds are better north of Interstate 10, as a front supporting rain showers will be stalling out north of the metro area. Still, everyone has a decent shot of rain on both days, and I expect accumulations of roughly a tenth of an inch to a few tenths of an inch. Some pockets of heavier rainfall are possible, so I wouldn’t rule out a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. We’ll keep an eye on things. Overnight lows remain very sultry for this time of year, perhaps only falling into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will fall back to 10 or 20 percent on Friday, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-80s with another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperature wise, Saturday will start out like the rest of the week, warm and muggy. Light showers will be possible during the first part of the day. The timing of the front is still a little bit uncertain, but at this point I anticipate the best chance for showers (along with the potnetial for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall) will come between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations I’ll guess most locations pick up an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but this forecast is still evolving.

At some point on Saturday evening, or perhaps around midnight, drier and cooler air will begin flowing in from the north. Temperautres by Easter Sunday morning probably will be in the upper 50s, with a moderate northerly breeze. Highs on Sunday should be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, but let’s wait an see. The biggest question is rain showers. I do think there will be some lingering activity on Sunday morning, but I’m hopeful this will clear out during the afternoon hours. Skies will remain cloudy regardless. Lows on Sunday night could drop to around 50 degrees outside of Houston, with slightly warmer conditions in the city.

Next week

Sunshine returns next week, and we should see some lovely spring-time weather. Look for days in the 70s through Wednesday, probably, with nights in the 50s. Humidity should remain pleasantly low through Wednesday or Thursday, so again, some very nice weather to look forward to!

In brief: In today’s forecast we note that Houston’s last measurable rainfall occurred nearly three weeks ago for most of the region. That almost certainly will end this week, with the threat of some showers lingering into Easter Sunday.

Easter Sunday

For most of Houston, our last measurable rainfall came on March 11, and it is unlikely to rain for another day or two at least. As we discussed on Friday, parts of the Houston area have already reached “extreme” drought status, and more will follow without significant rainfall soon.

High pressure has been dominant of late, but that should change this week, allowing for somewhat increased rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. But our best chances will come this weekend, with the passage of a decently strong front. This may bring 0.5 to 1.5 inch into the area. But when will it fall? That will depend on the timing of the front. Right now I’d guess sometime on Saturday night, yet even if that’s the case we could see showers lingering into Easter Sunday morning.

Bottom line? It could be a soggy Easter Sunday. It could also just be mostly cloudy and cooler. It definitely will not be like yesterday, which turned out to be a fabulous Sunday weather-wise. Seriously, was it not just grand?

Monday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the low- to mid-60s, and we are going to see a fairly robust onshore flow with winds gusting up to 20 mph from the south later today. With mostly sunny skies I expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-80s. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s, with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

This will be another warm and humid day, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s. We can again expect gusty, southerly winds. There will be a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, and if any rain does fall it likely will be very light in nature. Lows on Tuesday night will again be unseasonably warm.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase this week we will see a corresponding increase in cloud cover. That’s not to say we won’t see some sunshine for the rest of the week, but in most cases it will be the exception rather than the rule. Highs on both of these days will be in the vicinity of the low 80s, and there will be some healthy rain chances, probably 30 to 60 percent each days. Overall dynamics are probably better for areas inland of Interstate 10, but most of the area has a decent shot at some showers. Accumulations for both days will be on the order perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain to a few tenths of an inch, with wide variations. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Friday

Rain chances fall back a bit on Friday, and with perhaps a bit more sunshine we may see highs reach the mid-80s. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Alright, under the assumption that all of this could change somewhat due to timing, here’s what I expect to to happen. Saturday is likely to see continued, somewhat humid weather with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Light, scattered showers will be possible during the daytime with cloudy skies. At some point, perhaps during the evening, perhaps around midnight, or perhaps shortly after, a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms (it’s too early to really have a good sense of whether there will be any severe weather) will move through with the front. That may bring some briefly heavy rain.

By Sunday morning, most likely, this will have moved through. Most likely showers will end at that time, but cloud cover will linger throughout Sunday, and the potential for some showers may as well. We shall see. Highs on Easter Sunday will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds don’t look too wild after the front, maybe just 10 to 15 mph from the north. Humidity will be noticeably lower. Skies should clear out some overnight, allowing lows to drop into the 50 to 55 degree range.

Next week

Our cooler temperatures should persist at least for a few days next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should feel fairly spring-like!

In brief: In today’s post we have some good news, and some bad news. Let’s start with the good. There are many, many outdoor activities this weekend in the Houston region, from sporting events to public gatherings. All of these should have fine weather. The bad news is that a drought that has been building all winter is starting to become acute.

A deepening drought

We’ve been talking about drying soils a lot here because the state of Texas, particularly the eastern half of the state, has had such a dry winter and start to spring. At the beginning of October, last year, just 23.6 percent of Texas was in a ‘moderate’ drought, and only 13 percent in a ‘severe’ drought. Those numbers today, respectively, are 84.5 and 55.5 percent.

For the greater Houston area the problem has been building this winter, but until recently was not acute. As days lengthen and warm up, that is now changing, and areas of ‘severe’ and an even worse category, ‘extreme’ drought now encroaching upon Harris County. Much of Chambers, Waller, and Fort Bend counties now find themselves in an ‘extreme’ drought.

I am concerned about this because the next six months or so represents the warmest period of the year, with the Sun reaching a much higher angle in the sky, meaning that droughts develop much more quickly. Typically we see springtime rains in Houston (and don’t look now, but we’re only a couple of months from the opening of the Atlantic hurricane season), but for now the overall forecast shows no drought busters. No one wants flooding, of course. But we could use some rain events in the coming weeks.

Friday

Highs today should reach the mid- to upper-80s across the Houston area with mostly sunny skies. You know the drill as our weather has not changed much over the last week. It will be another mild evening. However conditions should begin to change tonight, likely around or after midnight, as winds shift to come from the north-northeast and bring in much drier air. As a result I expect temperatures to drop into the upper 50s by Saturday morning, with noticeably lower humidity.

Saturday

Saturday morning may see gusty winds up to about 25 mph, but these should start to fade by the afternoon hours. As for high temperatures, this will depend on the extent of any lingering cloud cover as skies will eventually turn fairly sunny. I expect highs will get into the mid- to upper-70s with low humidity. Saturday evening looks exceptional, and then most areas outside of the urban core should drop into the mid- to upper-50s on Saturday night. We know there are a ton, just a ton of outdoor activities from major sporting events to marches and parades this weekend, and the weather just looks exceptionally fine. (And if you took my long-standing advice for outdoor weddings in Houston, which is to hold them during the last two weeks of March, well done).

Sunday

Just as quickly as the front came in on Saturday, it’s likely to ease out on Sunday as the onshore flow resumes. Highs should reach around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies and rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Next week

We’re back into the mid-80s for much of next week, but there will be some overall changes to the forecast as high pressure recedes somewhat. At some point we’ll start to see partly to mostly cloudy days, and our nights will turn a little warmer and muggier (i.e. overnight lows drop to 70 degrees in Houston, rather than 65). By Wednesday or Thursday we’ll also finally start to see some slight rain chances enter the forecast.

As we get into next weekend, and remember Easter Sunday is then, rain chances may go up further. It’s still too fuzzy for confidence, but my sense is that we’ll see a stronger front trying to move through our region in 8 to 10 days, and that this will bring with it a healthier chance of more widespread rain. But whether this happens on Easter Sunday, or the day after (or heck, even not at all) remains impossible to say at this point.

For now, please enjoy what looks to be a fine weekend weather-wise in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss an exciting, upcoming space launch that we all should be rooting for. As for our weather, our warm conditions will turn slightly cooler this weekend before warming up again. And rain chances, maybe they return about a week from now.

Putting the “space” in Space City Weather

I want to thank Matt for covering the last couple of days while I was in Washington D.C. for NASA’s Ignition event. There, the space agency rolled out an exciting new plan for space exploration over the next decade, with the central achievement being the establishment of a lunar base. Houston’s Johnson Space Center, not to mention local companies such as Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and others, are a big part of all of this. I’ve written about space for a long time, and this is the first time I think NASA has set both a meaningful goal in deep space and laid solid plans to go about achieving it.

Everyone should also be excited about the launch of Artemis II next week, likely on Wednesday evening from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. Thousands of Houston people have worked hard toward preparing for this lunar flight during which four incredible astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen (most of whom are Space City Weather readers)—will fly around the Moon for the first time in more than five decades. Theirs is a bold mission, testing new hardware, and it will be super fun to follow their adventures. The early weather for next week in Florida looks fine for a launch, but we’ll see. I’ll be traveling for that as well, so there may be some minor disruptions in posting here.

The bottom line is that we, as a city, should be proud of what’s happening in space, and Houston’s important ongoing role. Your meteorologists certainly are.

Thursday

Our weather forecast remains much as Matt has described it over the last couple of days. We’re going to see continued warm weather for a couple of days before a slight cooldown this weekend. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions for inland areas. Skies will transition from partly cloudy this morning to mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with stronger gusts this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-60s.

Friday

Expect more of the same, with daytime temperatures possibly even a degree or two warmer. Lows on Friday night will again be in the 60s, although they will drop a little further by Saturday morning. Why? Because overnight we will see some moderately drier air moving in from the northeast. This will significantly lower our humidity for Saturday, and somewhat for Sunday.

Saturday

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Some locations may briefly drop into the 50s overnight on Saturday night, but it’s not like temperatures are really going to bottom out.

Sunday

By Sunday we should already begin to feel the effects of returning air from offshore, so look for high temperatures in the mid-80s, sunny skies, and moderate but rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will be in the mid-60s.

Next week

This warmer pattern will continue through midweek before that persistent ridge of high pressure that has been anchored to our west finally begins to break down. This will allow for the return of some modest rain chances, which may improve even further as we head toward next weekend. I don’t want to make any promises we can’t meet, but I’ll just say we could really use some rain and the odds may start to turn in our favor a little. At the same time I’m also cognizant of the Easter holiday about 10 days from now. When we have more clarity on this forecast we will, of course, share it with you.