Author: Eric Berger

Flash Flood Watch issued for Houston on Friday night

Posted by Eric Berger at 6:45 AM

The sunny weather we’ve enjoyed this week is now gone, as high pressure has been firmly supplanted by an onshore flow. We’ll see a steady diet of cloud cover through Saturday, with moisture moving onshore that will culminate in the potential for heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. To mark this threat, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the region from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. We discuss this threat below.

Green area denotes extent of National Weather Service Flash Flood Watch for Friday and Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

After a start in the 50s, highs today will climb into the upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Southeasterly winds will transport moisture inland throughout the day, and although we can’t rule out a few isolated showers we don’t expect anything significant. Low temperatures Thursday night won’t fall much below the mid-60s for most of the area.

Friday

The upper-level low pressure system will be moving down through Texas, approaching the Houston region from the north-northwest. We expect some light- to moderate rainfall on Friday in the Houston metro area during the daytime, but for the most part, heavier showers should remain west of Harris County until around sunset or so. Highs Friday should climb to near 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

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We’re continuing to track the potential for heavy rainfall on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning as a strong front moves through the region. Unfortunately, the models remain highly consistent in forecasting a wet night, with the potential for widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, and some bullseyes of up to 6 to 8 inches. The atmosphere won’t be too favorable toward severe weather, so the primary threat is heavy rainfall and the potential for some light to moderate flooding.

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Wednesday

Conditions today will be a lot like those on Tuesday, which is to say a cold start, followed by a sunny warm up into the low 60s. However, a subtle wind shift from the northeast to the east later today will allow for a few clouds to develop later tonight, and should moderate low temperatures to around 50 degrees in Houston—colder up north, a bit warmer along the coast.

High temperatures on Wednesday. (National Weather Service)

Thursday

Winds will shift to come from the southeast on Thursday, and this will represent the return of a moist, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help ramp up moisture levels ahead of the front, but it won’t manifest in rainfall immediately. Instead, Thursday will be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s, and those southeasterly winds.

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It’s a chilly morning across the region, with lows ranging from 35 degrees in Huntsville to around 50 along the coast. As high pressure dominates our weather, conditions will remain quiet until later this week, when a storm system will combine with ample Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some street flooding appears possible Friday night, but fortunately the system won’t linger as a strong front scours the region on Saturday morning.

Tuesday

Cool today, with a northerly flow. Despite sunny skies, highs probably will only get up to around 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will be similar to Monday night.

Tuesday night should be another chilly one for Houston. (National Weather Service)

Wednesday

Northerly winds will shift to the east, but that won’t mean much during the daytime, as we can expect another sunny day with highs of around 60 degrees. The more easterly winds should help to moderate overnight temperatures, however, with lows by Thursday morning generally in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday

Winds continue their rotation, and will come out of the southeast on Thursday, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Rain chances are quite low, but not non-existent.

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Today’s forecast will look ahead to some winter-like temperatures this week, and the possibility of some heavy rainfall and potential flooding later this week as a storm system moves through the Southern United States. But before we get into December’s weather, here’s a quick look back at November, which for most of Houston was quite cold, and quite dry. Note that the Sugar Land and Pearland temperature rankings, while impressive, only reflect about 20 years of data.

Climate data for November. (National Weather Service)

Monday

Northerly winds are bringing colder and drier air into Houston this morning, and conditions will remain so as high pressure establishes itself over the region. This will lead to a sunny day, with highs in the mid-60s, with some winds gusting above 20 mph. Temperatures will drop pretty quickly as the Sun goes down, with upper 30s possible for areas north of Houston, and low- to mid-40s for the rest of the metro area.

Tuesday morning low temperatures. (National Weather Service)

Tuesday and Wednesday

More of the same. These will be classic, winter-like days for Houston, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs of around 60 degrees, and lows ranging from the upper-30s for far inland areas to low 50s along the coast. A good time for sweaters and hot cocoa.

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