Eric Berger

In brief: After several drier days, some rain chances will return to Houston’s forecast. We are not expecting any days really to be washouts, however. I’m also holding out some hope that a weak front makes it into the city this weekend, providing for some slightly drier and cooler air. Fingers crossed.

Overall pattern shift

The high pressure that has held sway since last Friday, and basically shut off rain chances since then, is now shifting to the east. This does not mean you will see rain every day from now on, but over the next 10 days there will be at least a slight chance of rain most days. Total accumulations over the next 10 days may only be 1 to 2 inches, so we don’t have any real flood concerns at this time. It just should be a pattern that provides the potential for spoiling a few outdoor activities, but also helps our trees and plants before the long summer days that lie in our near future.

Tuesday

With that said, rain chances today are rather slight, and anything that falls would be a quick passing shower. However that does not mean sunshine will be abundant. Rather we should see mostly cloudy skies, and this will help limit high temperatures in the mid-80s for most locations. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel moderately, but not oppressively humid. We can expect southerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts this afternoon up to 25 mph. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

A weak front will move toward the Houston region on Wednesday, and it will spur a slight chance of thunderstorms to the northwest of the metro area. As of now, I think the chance of any serious storms getting anywhere close to the city of Houston or its surrounding suburbs is quite low. But we’ll keep an eye on things. Skies will again be mostly cloudy, with a fairly robust southerly wind as on Tuesday. Rain chances turn a little bit higher on Wednesday night, perhaps 30 percent. Some far inland areas may see lows on Wednesday night in the 60s due to the proximity of the front, but most of the region should remain in the 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of hotter days as we see an injection of warm, southerly air into the region. Thursday probably will be the warmest day of the week, with some locations potentially hitting 90 degrees as skies become partly sunny. Rain chances are are low, but non-zero. Friday will also be fairly hot, but another slow-moving front will spur better rain chances. I expect most of the region will see some showers, or possibly even thunderstorms later on Friday or Friday night as the front slowly moves in.

Saturday and Sunday

It is not possible to say for certain, but at this point I think that weak front will make it all the way to the coast. As a result most of the area should see highs in the lower 80s this weekend, with a smidge of drier air, and lows in the 60s. There will still be a healthy chance of rain on Saturday, but I expect Sunday to be partly sunny and fairly nice. Again, the weekend forecast is very much in flux because we just can’t be sure how much oomph that front is going to have, but I have some hopes for a nice day on Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

I think Monday probably will see a fair amount of sunshine before rain chances return again next week during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. I don’t think we’re looking at anything extreme at all, but just more rain to help our soils remain in good shape for nature.

In brief: Did you like Sunday’s weather? Because that pattern will persist into Wednesday. After that point we’ll add daily rain chances into the forecast through the weekend. However, one thing that won’t change is the relatively high temperatures and humidity we’ve been experiencing.

A quick word on the Sun

By the calendar it may still say spring, but in terms of sunshine, we are rapidly approaching the peak of the year. Nowadays, shortly after 1 pm, the Sun reaches an angle of 75 degrees (out of a maximum of 90 degrees) in the sky. Of course the Sun reaches a maximum height on the summer solstice (June 21 this year, 84 degrees), but the Sun is already climbing to the same height as it does in early August.

What’s your point, Eric? Well I think a lot of Houston residents associate August with a month when you can pretty quickly get a sunburn outside. My point is that similar conditions exist in April, so if you’re planning to be outside during the middle of the day, please take some precautions to protect your skin. It will burn quickly.

Monday

High pressure will prevail to start the week, so we are likely to see ongoing warm and humid weather for a few days. For Monday, this means partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Like on Sunday, we will see fairly stiff southerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Rain chances will be low to non-existent. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight, with low temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

This should more or less be a carbon copy of Monday, albeit with high and low temperatures perhaps a degree or two higher. Again, with high pressure in place, rain chances should remain near zero.

Wednesday

The forecast turns slightly more dynamic on Wednesday as a cool front approaches the region but, more likely than not, stalls out well to the northwest of the metro area. Although we will be watching for the possibility that the front pushes into Houston, right now the most probable weather is scattered showers (greater chances north of I-10) on Wednesday afternoon, evening, and overnight. Expect highs generally in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Those pesky, strong southerly winds will remain in place. I don’t think we’ll see enough oomph from the front to make a meaningful impact on nighttime temperatures.

Thursday and Friday

With clearer skies these days should see highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees for most of the area, with nighttime lows around 70 degrees. However, each day may see some scattered shower activity during the afternoon and evening hours with daytime heating. I’m confident in the heat, but less so in the rain chances.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

With a fair amount of moisture lingering in the atmosphere, we should continue to see daily rain chances in the vicinity of 30 to 50 percent this weekend. With a few more clouds, high temperatures may back off into the mid-80s, with continued nighttime lows around 70 degrees. With dewpoints in the 60s it will definitely feel humid outside, but not oppressively so like it will in a month or two.

Most of our modeling is showing another system that could bring elevated rain chances by the middle of next week. However, as this feature is about 10 days away, it is difficult to place too much confidence in any one outcome at this time.

In brief: After several days of much needed rain, Houston has one more shot at some scattered showers today before the pattern dries up for a while. The weekend, as expected, looks sunny and warm with few concerns beyond humidity.

Thursday

The radar is quiet this morning, but overall the atmosphere above the Houston region remains unsettled. Accordingly, later this morning as temperatures warm up we should see the development of some scattered thunderstorms. A few of these may be briefly heavy, but I certainly expect them to be less disruptive than storms on Wednesday when a few locations recorded in excess of 3 inches of rainfall. Overall rain chances today are probably about 40 percent for areas north of Interstate 10, and 20 percent for areas closer to the coast. Skies this afternoon should become partly sunny, allowing most locations to record high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will come from the southeast at about 10 to 15 mph. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 70s.

Friday

High pressure will begin to build by Friday, and this should lower rain chances to isolated showers, or about 10 percent area-wide. Otherwise skies will be partly sunny with highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations. Nights will remain rather warm through the weekend, into next week.

Saturday and Sunday

There are a ton of outdoor activities planned for this weekend, from sitting on the beach to an IRONMAN competition to festivals to long bike rides. The good news is that we’re highly confident in the forecast due to high pressure. Saturday will be partly sunny, and Sunday should be mostly sunny, with both days producing daytime temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. It’s going to feel fairly humid outside, but it won’t be nearly so humid as we are going to get latter this summer. Both days will see modest winds from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with perhaps some slightly higher gusts. With all the sunshine and higher sun angle, please don’t forget the sunscreen for extended outdoor activities.

Next week

Monday through Wednesday will see continued warm and humid weather, with highs remaining in the mid- to upper-80s. However days will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies instead of full sunshine. By Wednesday or so a weak front will approach and possibly move into the area. This will start to increase rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It may also eventually bring some slightly drier and cooler air by next weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see about that.

The bottom line is that the remainder of April is going to be rather warm, just like the rest of the month, which has been about 5 degrees above normal. Whether this is a harbinger for summer it is difficult to say. Let us hope not.

In brief: Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the greater Houston area this morning, and because this is a fairly large system there is the potential for some modest street flooding. A Stage 1 flood alert is in place through the mid-afternoon hours as a result. The weekend still looks sunny and warm as high pressure moves in.

Unsettled environment

After calmer weather on Tuesday, an unsettled pattern returns today. A fairly robust line of storms lies to the west of Houston, and it is trundling toward the metro area this morning. Although there is a modest capping inversion over the greater Houston area, it probably will break as these storms near by mid-morning. Because our soils are already somewhat sodden after rains on Sunday and Monday, these additional rains could lead to some street flooding due to runoff. For this reason we are putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place through mid-afternoon today.

Wednesday

The storms west of Houston should push into Houston between around 9 am and 3 pm CT, with the greater likelihood of heavy rain south of Interstate 10. Although some damaging winds are possible, the overall severe threat is low, and our primary concern is heavy rainfall that may cause some street flooding. Most areas will probably see manageable totals of 0.5 to 2.0 inches, but there could be some higher bullseyes of 3 or more inches before the storms shift eastward this afternoon. I expect road conditions to be fine for the evening commute home.

With mostly cloudy skies amid the rain, high temperatures today will likely peak around 80 degrees, or a bit higher, for most of the area. Winds will be from the southeast at about 10 mph, although we could see some higher gusts along with some of the stronger thunderstorms. A few isolated showers will be possible this evening, with lows tonight dropping into the low 70s in the Houston area.

Thursday and Friday

Plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere on Thursday and Friday to support additional showers and thunderstorms, however we will be lacking a spark. Therefore my best guess is that, overall, rain chances will be quite low, on the order of 20 percent. But if we do see some showers they could be briefly heavy. For the most part I expect these to be partly sunny days, with temperatures in the mid-80s and southerly winds in the vicinity of 15 mph. Nights remain warm, with lows falling to around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

As anticipated, this weekend should bring mostly sunny skies and an end to rain chances as high pressure builds over the area. Expect high temperatures in the vicinity of the mid-80 to upper-80s both days with warm nights. Winds will come from the southeast at about 15 mph, which will be a boon for MS-150 riders. Alas, dewpoints of around 70 degrees will make it difficult for participants in the IRONMAN event in The Woodlands.

Next week

This pattern more or less continues into the middle of next week until the high pressure shoves off, and we are left with the potential for more unsettled weather. A front will approach the area, and this should generate some healthy rain chances. Whether it pushes all the way to the coast and brings us some drier and cooler air is something we’re just going to have to wait and see.