Hello, spring. So is that it for winter?

In brief: The forecast for this week is pretty boring, and unchanging. In fact, I give you permission not to check Space City Weather for a few days. We are going to be rather warm for February this week, with low rain chances. So this post addresses the question, is winter over?

The eastern half of Texas is already seeing mild weather this morning. (Weather Bell)

Winter update

Sunday was gorgeous, and it felt much more like spring than winter. And the truth is, the entirety of the coming week is going to be quite warm with daytime temperatures around 80 degrees and mild nights in the 60s. So it is natural to ask, is that it for winter this year in Houston?

That depends. As the calendar goes, winter in Houston lasts from December through February. So we’ve got a few more weeks to go. Based upon the questionable prognostications from Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow during a ceremony on Sunday, we have six more weeks of winter. But what does the science of meteorology say?

As usual, we have few absolute answers. However, it does seem clear that Houston’s pattern will turn colder next week. Moreover, there is the potential for another significant outbreak of colder air during the second half of February. This is because our latest data indicates that the stratospheric polar vortex, which bottles cold air near the north pole, may split and allow some of this very cold air to come down into the mid-latitudes. The timing for this would be later in February, or early March.

So our advice is that, yes, this week is going to feel unseasonably warm for February. It’s definitely shorts-and-t-shirts weather. But don’t put away those sweaters just yet.

Monday

Temperatures in Houston this morning are generally in the lower 60s, and this is as cold as our weather is going to get until next Sunday or Monday. This pattern is due to a persistent onshore flow, and it’s not going to vary much this week. This kind of warmer weather at this time of year is supportive of sea fog, so there will be a chance of that most mornings this week. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

That is a consistent forecast for this week. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday through Friday

Not much changes for the rest of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with highs of around 80 degrees, and cloudy nights in the 60s. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain each day. Winds will be from the south each day at about 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, it will feel moderately humid. And that’s basically the forecast. I should take a holiday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same, with highs of around 80 degrees, lows in the upper 60s, and a mixture of clouds and sunshine. Southerly winds may pick up a little bit on Saturday from the south. At some point a front is going to come trundling through, but it’s not clear to me whether that will happen on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.

Conditions should turn more seasonal across Texas next week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Whenever said front arrives it will probably bring our first meaningful rain chances with it. The front will also usher in winter-like conditions back to Houston, probably driving low temperatures down into the 40s during the second half of next week. But the timing and intensity of such a cold snap remains pretty fuzzy, as we’re talking about a period 7 to 10 days from now.

Showers and thunderstorms possible today as a front moves through

In brief: Houston faces the potential for a few thunderstorms as a cold front rolls through the area this afternoon. Once it moves offshore we’ll see several splendid, sunny days through the weekend. Next week looks warmer, and decidedly spring-like.

Thursday

A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front is near Austin and Waco this morning, and it will move steadily southeast toward Houston today. It is likely to reach areas west (Katy) and north of Houston (The Woodlands) by or before noon, and push off the coast by around 4 or 5 pm CT. For most of us, I expect these to be briefly passing showers, but some areas may see thunderstorms and damaging winds. Ahead of the front expect temperatures in the lower 70s, dropping 10 degrees after its passage. Lows tonight will fall to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Simulated radar reflectivity for 1 pm CT today. This is for illustration purposes only. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Sunshine returns on Friday, with much drier air. We’ll see gusty winds from the north, perhaps reaching about 20 mph, during the daytime. Highs will likely rise to near 70 degrees. As winds die down we’ll see our coldest night on Friday night, as temperatures dip into the 40s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

This will be a fine day for just about anything. Expect low humidity and high temperatures of about 70 degrees. Skies will be clear and sunny, with light winds. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Temperatures on Saturday morning should be the coldest of the forecast period. (Weather Bell)

Sunday

As the flow turns more southerly, conditions on Sunday will be a tad warmer, with highs perhaps reaching the mid-70s. Skies will remain sunny, however. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Next week

This will be the warmest week of 2025 so far, and feel much more spring-like than winter-like. Expect highs in the mid-70s to 80 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel modestly, but not oppressively humid. Nighttime lows will be in the 60s. There probably will be some scattered showers on some of the days, but I don’t see a huge signal for any rain showers. It does look like some sort of front arrives by next Saturday or Sunday to cool us down, and remind us that it’s still February. My guess is that it knocks lows back into the 40s, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

Houston turns warmer and muggier for a couple of days before clear and cooler weather this weekend

In brief: There’s a little something for everyone in today’s forecast. We’ve got clouds and some rain during the next couple of days before a nice stretch of sunny and low-humidity weather to take us through the weekend. Only thing to watch for is the low-end potential of some storms on Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday

It’s a fairly dreary morning outside, with light, misty rainfall and areas of fog. This drizzle and fog may persist for much of the morning before we’re simply left with a layer of clouds. With a warmer, southeasterly flow in place we can expect temperatures to warm to about 70 degrees this afternoon, with increasing humidity levels. A chance of drizzle remains overnight, as lows only drop into the lower 60s.

NOAA storm outlook for Thursday and Thursday night.

Thursday

This will be a fairly warm day, despite the cloudy skies, as high temperatures rise into the mid-70s with humidity to match. Some scattered showers will be possible during the morning hours, along with gusty southeasterly winds. During the afternoon, a cold front will approach the area, likely reaching Katy and Tomball an hour or two after noon. What I think we’re likely to see is a broken line of showers that may possibly fill in as it moves through Houston during the afternoon. There is a slight chance of some severe weather with the front, and this is most likely to occur as it passes to the east of the Interstate 45 corridor. This includes the potential for severe thunderstorms or damaging winds. (There is a very low-end chance of hail or a tornado). For most of us, the front should be a fairly modest event, with drier air moving in behind. Lows will drop into the low 50s on Thursday night with clearing skies.

Saturday morning looks to be the coldest of the week. (Weather Bell)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Sunshine is back on the menu, along with a nice slug of drier air and sunshine. Winds from the north will be a bit gusty on Friday morning, but should back down after that. We’re looking at highs on Friday and Saturday of around 70 degrees, with temperatures at night falling into the mid- to upper-40s. Sunday will be a little warmer, with highs in the lower- to mid-70s, but still with plenty of dry air. I can’t wait to take a long bike ride and soak up some sun.

Next week

The atmosphere turns a bit messier next week, but generally I expect we’ll see warm, partly sunny days with highs in the 70s, and nights with lows around 60 degrees. There may be some slight, daily rain chances. Some kind of front works its way toward Houston by the weekend, but an Arctic blast it will not be.

Some storms are possible on Thursday in Houston ahead of a stellar weekend

In brief: Houston won’t see much sunshine for the next three days, and there’s a decent chance of some storms Thursday ahead of a cool front. This front will usher in some amazing weather for the weekend, with sunny skies, dry air, and modestly warm days. For mid-winter, it will be pretty sublime.

Tuesday

Today will be cool and gray, with an easterly flow at the surface. I would expect high temperatures to max out at about 60 degrees for most locations due to mostly cloudy skies. Some very light, misty showers are possible, but I think most of us will not see any precipitation today. Winds will be light. Low temperatures tonight will not fall far, perhaps into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

As winds shift to come from the south we’ll see warmer air and an infusion of moisture into the atmosphere. Although skies remain cloudy, this should allow high temperatures to push upward toward about 70 degrees, with increasing humidity. With all of the moisture in the atmosphere, there will be a decent chance of light rain. However, given the absence of a forcing function I think any showers will be fairly scattered and of low intensity. Lows drop only into the lower 60s on Wednesday night, with a slight chance of rain.

There is a slight risk of severe weather for parts of the northern and eastern Houston metro area. (NOAA)

Thursday

A low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere will push a cold front toward our region, and this will produce at least a low-end chance of storms in the Houston area. Although the details remain a bit fuzzy, my sense is that a line of storms will develop to the west of Houston by or before noon, and push through the city during the afternoon. Ahead of this line temperatures will be warm, in the upper 70s perhaps, and muggy. Behind it, dry air filters in pretty quickly. As for the storms themselves, the main threat is thunder and damaging winds. There’s probably a slight potential for some tornadoes, as well, but it’s too early to have much confidence in such a forecast. Temperatures should fall into the lower 50s on Thursday night, with a slight chance of rain lingering behind the front.

NOAA map of rain accumulation through Thursday night. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds may be a bit gusty from the north, reaching about 20 mph. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be our nicest weekend in a while. We’re talking sunny skies, and relatively low humidity, and no weather concerns whatsoever. Highs on Saturday likely will be in the upper 60s, and reach the lower 70s by Sunday. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should feel spring-like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s not a super-strong signal for any rainfall. By next weekend a somewhat stronger front may arrive, but at this point it does not look like anything crazy (such as a freeze) is in the cards. We’ll see.