As noted earlier, a nasty line of severe thunderstorms moved through Houston this morning, bringing especially unpleasant conditions north of Interstate 10, with downed trees and power lines (causing one death). Winds gusted up to about 60 mph across much of the region. At least two tornado warnings were issued although neither has been confirmed as of yet. By 6:20am CT about 125,000 CenterPoint customers were without power, mainly in northern Harris and southern Montgomery counties. The only comfort is that because the storms moved quickly, they only had time to drop 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across the region.
TODAY
With the main line of storms moving into the Gulf of Mexico and east of the Houston metro area by about 7am, for today the main event has ended. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible in the wake of this system later this morning and afternoon, but it will not be nearly so organized or severe. In short, despite the inclement weather earlier, it should be safe to resume normal activities this morning across the Houston metro area. Highs today will be in the mid-80s.
THURSDAY
We should see a bit of a break from storms, but not from heat. Look for highs in the upper 80s. With enough Sun we might come close to hitting 90 degrees for the first time in 2016, although I hope (and don’t think) that will happen. Hello, summer?
FRIDAY
Friday will also be warm, with highs in the mid-80s, and southeasterly winds will ramp up to about 20mph out of the southeast. This will increase moisture levels, and we may see some light to moderate rain later in the day and Friday night. But for heavy rain I think we’re going to have to wait until Saturday.
SATURDAY
The potential for very heavy rain on Saturday remains a concern, however precipitable water levels are likely to be a bit lower than we saw during the Tax Day rains, and conditions otherwise won’t be quite as conducive for extremely heavy rainfall.
At this time I’d guess most areas will see 2 to 4 inches of rain, although it remains possible there will be some bullseyes with 5+ inches of rain in southeast Texas. Where? Who knows. But my guess is they will not occur over western Harris County, where the heaviest rains were about 10 days ago.
SUNDAY
Conditions should be much clearer on Sunday, with partly to mostly sunny skies likely and only slight rain chances.
Posted at 6:45am CT Wednesday
I headed to SW Arkansas this weekend. Looks…wet. Ugh.
NAMI Walk is this Saturday at 8am in downtown. Do you think it will still be able to happen or are storms expected early?
I’d not be overly optimistic about that event happening.
Eric, thunder woke me this morning around 5 am in Katy and I went to check email. To my surprise you had just posted a warning and it really put me at ease. Thank you so much for all you do!
Quite welcome!
Eric, I am an early rise – 5 AM- and I knew we had heavy rain and lightning at an early hour. However, I knew from your PM email that the line of storms was fast-moving and that eased my mind. They were definitely gone before 7AM in Pearland. I thank you for your fantastic weather reports and appreciate your dedicated work. My first activity in the morning is to read your very early and informative email report.
You’re quite welcome.
When will we know more about the timing of Saturday’s storm? Also any guess on how much rain west Pearland will get?
Maybe tomorrow afternoon.
Did I read you right, Eric. You said you don’t think the heaviest rains/severe weather will NOT occur over Western Harris County, where the heaviest rains/strong storms were about 10 days ago. Does this mean HOUSTON itself is in a more comfortable position stormwise than 10 days ago or, for that matter, today?
Please say we are.
I said the probability of west Houston being ground zero for two events in a row seems low to me, but non-zero.
Given the saturated ground, will more rain mean TRIPLE the number of downed trees and power lines that we saw today, Eric?
That’s a concern, but I’m not convinced we’re going to see those kinds of strong winds again with the heavy rain this weekend.