Month: February 2022

Good morning. After a dynamic week of weather, with widespread rain showers Monday, a smidgen of freezing rain on Thursday, and then very cold weather through the weekend, conditions will moderate this week. However, it’s still going to feel winter-like out there, for Houston at least. Normal temperatures for this time of year are highs in the mid-60s, and low in the mid-40s, and that is more or less what we’re going to see.

Monday

Just as temperatures are beginning to warm, we’ll see another shot of cold air today. This will be more of a reinforcing front rather than a blustery affair, so while winds will shift to come from the north I’m not anticipating anything too gusty. High temperatures should reach about 60 degrees this afternoon, especially after clouds clear out this this morning and leave us with sunny skies. Monday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the 30s for the metro area.

Tuesday

A pleasant, sunny day with light winds. Highs will generally be in the low 60s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

The upper air pattern will support continued calm weather at the surface for Houston. High temperatures on each of these days should slot somewhere in the upper 60s, with mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s inland, to low 40s in the city, and upper 40s along the coast. This will be a splendid stretch of winter-like weather.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is somewhat in question due to the uncertain timing of the next cold front. The most likely scenario is that the front comes through some time between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, and for now rain chances do not look terribly high with its passage. But timing and rainfall are both subject to change. Anyway, for now, I’d anticipate partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs of around 70 degrees. Sunday could be quite a bit colder, but for now I’ll go with sunny skies and highs of around 60 degrees. A light freeze may be possible on Monday morning, but I’m not sure this front will go that cold. We’ll see!

Good morning, and it’s certainly nice to wake up to no power issues related to the grid across Texas. ERCOT’s status is normal. That being said, we do have some considerable travel issues to contend with this morning. Those should slowly improve today, and the weekend looks like a pretty nice one, if you like calm winter weather.

This morning

Current temperatures across the Houston area are in the mid to upper-20s away from the coast and generally around the low-30s at the coast.

Wind chills are about 10 degrees colder than this, with mostly low to mid-teens around the region.

Precipitation ended for most folks yesterday evening, and radar is quiet this morning across the area with everything basically offshore now. But the damage is done in terms of road conditions west of Houston. Icy patches are still being reported west of Katy and in far northwest Harris County. While you should be able to maneuver for the most part around the Houston area this morning, please use extra caution on bridges and overpasses, which could still have some icy patches.

If you are traveling away from Houston today, use extreme caution. If you can postpone travel to Austin or Dallas, it’s probably advisable, as road conditions should not improve a lot today in those areas. Travel to San Antonio is probably manageable after this morning, but again, please drive carefully. Monitor road conditions at drivetexas.org.

Rest of today

Clearing is not expecting to be total today, and the most I’d bank on right are perhaps some brightening skies this afternoon. Otherwise, a lot of clouds. That will keep temperatures from getting much above 35 degrees today. It’s just straight up cold.

Tonight

Another round of light to moderate freezing temperatures should be expected tonight.

Continue to keep plants and exterior pipes protected especially and make sure to check on any vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors, as this is a prolonged cold event for our area.

Weekend

The weather this weekend looks just fine. After the chilly start to Saturday, we’ll warm up well into the 40s during the afternoon with sunshine. It will be cold again Saturday night, but this time only the outlying areas will see meaningful freezing temperatures. Expect low to mid-30s in Houston and along the coast and upper-20s to 30 or so away from the city and coast.

Sunday looks delightful as well. We’ll see more sunshine and highs push back above 50° Sunday afternoon!

Early next week

A weak disturbance will likely stay offshore on Monday, but I do expect us to see some clouds and at least a rain shower chance along the immediate coast. Any rain won’t amount to much there, if it happens at all. Once that system passes, it will usher in a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier weather, along with more sunshine for midweek. Look for highs in the 50s Monday and Tuesday and perhaps cracking 60 again by Wednesday. Lows will be in the upper-30s to near 40 on Monday morning, then probably back in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

At this point, I’d expect generally cooler than normal weather to continue through at least Valentine’s Day. Perhaps warmer weather will be in the cards after then. We’ll see.

First off, travel is becoming very treacherous in parts of western Harris, northern Fort Bend, Austin, and Waller Counties. According to the Drive Texas map at 8:30 PM, there are icy patches in many spots west of Houston. A 10-vehicle crash was just reported on the Westpark Tollway in Clodine.

If you can avoid travel tonight, it’s best to do so, especially west of Houston. If you cannot, please use extreme caution, especially on bridges and overpasses. Based on reports to our west, once temperatures hit 29 to 30 degrees, that’s generally when ice issues seem to begin. Most of the close-in Houston area is 30 to 32 right now, but it drops to 29 and 30 north and west of there. I would expect to see some major freeway flyovers on the west side of the city close soon, if they have not already. South and east of Houston, temperatures are still 33 to 34 degrees, so icing isn’t a concern for now.

As far as the good news goes, it would appear that a lot of the precipitation is exiting the area or weakening. Radar as of 8:35 PM shows the heaviest, steadiest precipitation either along the coast or exiting to our east. This should continue to wane over the next few hours.

That said, we will likely see pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle continue a little longer this evening before shutting down overnight. And with temperatures not warming up until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, what’s frozen out there will likely stay in place until at least that time. Coastal areas may see a little light freezing rain or drizzle overnight, but it would likely only amount to a few isolated slick spots. Still, exercise caution there as well tomorrow morning and be aware of isolated patches of black ice over the entire area.

Nighttime temperatures won’t stray a ton from where they are right now, so look for lows in the mid to upper 20s north and west and near freezing south and east.

By no means will this be a memorable freeze for the Houston area, but you should still make sure any sensitive plants are protected the next few nights and have any exterior pipes wrapped and irrigation systems off.

The most important news of all? ERCOT’s situation is healthy right now, and there are no conservation notices posted. All available evidence and data implies that we should be able to manage fine through tomorrow morning.

We may see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon, but temperatures will likely struggle into the upper 30s. A slow warmup is expected this weekend. I’ll have more on that for you in the morning. For now, stay safe and stay warm!

It’s cold, wet, and windy outside today, and conditions aren’t going to improve as skies darken tonight. So let’s jump into the forecast for our region.

As of 3 pm CT, temperatures in the metro area have remained above freezing in Harris and surrounding counties. But they are falling, and for places like Katy and The Woodlands the mercury could reach freezing by around sunset. As roads will remain above freezing for a little while, even if these areas start to see some freezing rain, I think conditions should be generally fine for the evening commute as long as you’re not driving further north than Conroe, northwest of Hockley, or west of Katy. Beyond those locations there may start to be some ice accumulations. You can keep up with highway conditions at DriveTexas.

As for tonight, a light band of precipitation should move through the region from northwest of Houston to the coast between sunset and midnight. This may turn over to freezing rain at some locations where temperatures reach freezing. My sense right now is that the precipitation will be light enough, and the roads warm enough, that the primary concern will be patchy ice on bridges, ramps, and elevated roadways. We should have a much better sense of this threat later this evening, and Matt will have an update by or before 9 pm. The good news is that, after this point, the precipitation is probably over for areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. So by late this evening we should have a sense of whether ice is going to pose problems for that portion of the Houston metro area tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal areas

That leaves us with coastal areas. Temperatures should be warmer during the initial rain band, moving through before midnight. So we don’t think there’s much potential for icing then. However forecast models are showing the potential for the redevelopment of some light precipitation by around sunrise on Friday morning in the coastal tier of counties—Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Frankly I don’t have great confidence in whether these showers will develop onshore or offshore; nor if they are over land whether the atmosphere will be cold enough to produce freezing rain. For now, I would say the chance of roadway impacts is considerably less than 50 percent on Friday morning, and probably less than 10 percent, but as of now it is not zero. Hopefully we’ll get a little better handle on this by the time Matt posts later this evening.

As for temperatures, they still look cold but manageable tonight, with lows likely dropping to around 25 degrees west and north of metro Houston, into the upper 20s to 30 degrees in the city, and to around freezing right along the coast. The state’s electricity grid seems to be holding up fairly well, too, but the acid test will come overnight and into Friday morning.

More later this evening.