Month: April 2022

Good morning. The big (bad?) news this week is that we’ll probably see our warmest weather of 2022, with highs of 90 degrees possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. But fret not, a nice front arrives on Wednesday to bring drier air and seasonable weather into the region through at least part of the weekend.

Monday

Increasing atmospheric moisture levels will combine with and upper-level disturbance to bring a chance of showers into the region, probably 20 percent today, and 50 percent tonight. While we cannot entirely rule out a thunderstorm or two, by far the better chance for this lies well north of the Houston region, including Montgomery County. (Dallas and Fort Worth may well be affected, so bear that in mind if you’re traveling north). For those who do see a stray shower today or tonight, accumulations will probably be on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. Highs will reach the upper 70s beneath cloudy skies, with lows only dropping to 70. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with slightly higher gusts.

Tuesday

Some light rain is possible Tuesday morning before skies clear out. This sunshine should allow temperatures to really pop, likely reaching the upper 80s to potentially 90 degrees. Overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Look for warm south or southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, picking up a little bit more on Tuesday night.

Wednesday

Highs on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the front, which bring cooler and drier air. (It looks like there will be no rain with the front’s passage). For now I’ll peg the front’s push into central Houston around noon, which should help limit highs, especially for areas inland of Highway 59-Interstate 69. However, where the front doesn’t make it by early afternoon, look for highs again in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The front will shift winds to come from the northwest, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

Both Thursday and Friday look fairly breezy, with highs in the 70s to go along with the influx of drier air from the north. Nighttime temperatures should drop to around 50 degrees both nights, with upper 40s possible for inland areas. These days will be quite sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point, and things could change, but at this point Saturday looks to have exceptional weather. We’re talking highs in the range of upper 70s to low 80s, with lots of sunshine and winds dropping off some. The air will still be dry. As the onshore flow gets going, Sunday will probably see the development of more clouds, with highs around 80 degrees, and increasing humidity levels. Next week probably will see this ongoing trend of warmer, and fairly humid weather.

Good morning! We really hope you enjoyed yesterday’s weather. It was truly sublime, though if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer like me, it was not quite as nice as it could have been. Yesterday was the highest tree pollen value I’ve seen in Houston this year, and as you’d expect it seems to be following a fairly typical pattern for spring. Below is a chart of total tree pollen in Houston from January 1 through April 30 over the last 5 years, plus 2022 so far. Keep in mind that there is no data for weekends or holidays, and there are currently multiple missing days in March unfortunately.

Where the pattern may be breaking down is on which date the “peak” of tree pollen occurs. I will confirm this once March’s archive is published, but if we go by what data we do have, the peak of tree pollen occurred like this in Houston:

Year	Peak Date of Pollen
2022 (so far)	March 31
2021	March 26
2020	March 6
2019	March 21
2018	March 14
2017	March 14

Assuming yesterday was our peak day for pollen, it came rather late. Data in Houston goes back to 2013, and this year would be the latest peak since at least then. That peak date is contingent on numerous things like rain, temperatures, wind, etc. So each year will be different, obviously, but this year does indeed seem to be peaking late. Based on previous seasons, we likely have about 10 to 14 more days of really high pollen before things begin to fall off steadily. There is hope for us.

Today

On to the weather, and today should be another good one. We will likely see some clouds at times, but for the most part today will be classified as mostly sunny. Look for highs around 80, give or take a few degrees. Winds will be mainly light, but up just a notch over yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday should be a fair day for most folks, with a decent amount of sunshine around. There will likely be some showers with a passing disturbance and approaching weak front, but many or most of you may not see much of anything come from that tomorrow. I’m guessing the clouds and shower chance will be highest in the morning hours, followed by clearing for the afternoon.

Sunday should be just fine with plentiful sunshine with daytime highs in the low-80s and morning lows around 60 or so each day (a few degrees cooler outside the city). Winds will be variable but generally 5 to 15 mph.

Early next week

Monday should begin fine with a mix of clouds and sun. We should be able to make the low-80s after a mild mid-60s start to the day. You will notice a bit more of an onshore breeze Monday, with 15 mph winds, and a bit gustier at times near the coast. Additionally, it looks like we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday afternoon.

The SPC has published their day 4 severe outlook and included the Houston area, primarily north of I-10 as having a chance for severe thunderstorms. We will likely be dealing with some “capping” in the atmosphere, as we normally do down here in spring. This increase in temperatures with altitude normally helps limit our severe weather risk near the Gulf, as opposed to what is normally seen to our north. For now, while severe storms are possible on Monday, we are comfortable saying the highest odds may be north of the Houston metro area. We’ll obviously have an update on this Monday.

Tuesday and beyond

Any storms on Monday will occur well ahead of a cold front. That front won’t actually get here until Wednesday. So we may see lingering showers on Tuesday morning, followed by clearing and warm weather Tuesday, with low to mid-80s. Wednesday could be quite warm with slightly less humidity and sunshine. Wednesday’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s right now.

For those that want more pleasant weather, it should arrive for a couple days behind Wednesday’s front. We will see lower humidity and sunshine, along with slightly cooler temperatures. More on that next week!