Month: October 2022

Good morning. Houston’s weather will be fairly bland through next Wednesday or so, with a weak cool front providing a splash of drier air this weekend. Then, later next week, a stronger front will potentially bring some much-needed rainfall and a fair amount of cooler air. In between we’ll see warm days.

Tuesday

High pressure is in control of our weather right now, but because it is October and not August conditions will not be sweltering outside. Rather most of the region can expect to see highs in the upper 80s today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. Due to these rather calm atmospheric conditions, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has issued an Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria area for today. This means ozone levels could be unhealthy for sensitive groups. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-60s for the city, with slightly cooler conditions inland, and slightly warmer near the coast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three fairly warm days, with highs around 90 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Look for lows generally in the upper 60s. Rain chances, like for the rest of this week, will be near zero. As dewpoints start to creep up toward 70 degrees it is going to feel humid outside. It won’t be full-on summer humidity, but it will be more humid than the last week or so.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front arrives in time for the weekend. This won’t bring any rainfall, probably, but it should knock some of the humidity out of the air. Look for mostly sunny skies on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s, and similarly sunny weather for Sunday, with highs in the mid-80s. The jury is still out on lows, but I think much of the area probably will get into the low 60s.

Next week

I think most of next week will probably see highs bounce back into the upper 80s, with plenty of sunshine. Things start to get interesting by Thursday or Friday, when the global models are suggesting that a stronger front may push into the region. There are some hopeful signs that this one could bring rainfall. This is still nine or ten days out, so take the forecast with a grain of salt—or maybe two. But I’m choosing to be hopeful.

There are two things I want to talk about before jumping into the forecast for this week—a forecast I would classify as not great, but far from terrible. To start with, I want to thank everyone who came out to our first Fall Day celebration at the Houston Botanic Garden on a gorgeous Sunday. We should get a final tally today, but I think 400 or 500 people came by to say hello, and it was just wonderful to meet you all.

Matt and I also want to say a huge thank you to Reliant, who went above and beyond to organize and support this event on short notice. Megan, Pat, and the events team there did a spectacular job of ensuring there were activities for kids, coffee and snacks, and finding the great location. It’s due to our long-term partnership with Reliant, now more than five years running, that we’re able to hold events like this.

If you were at the Fall Day event, you may have heard me announce what has been clear for awhile now—the 2022 Texas hurricane season is over. This is something we could have written last week, but it felt inappropriate to do so as Florida was getting slammed by Hurricane Ian.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but due to a variety of factors including a shifting jet stream at this time of year, it is rare for Texas to get struck by a hurricane after the end of September. This year, based on what we’re seeing in the tropics at present, should be no different. A freak storm is always possible, and we may see some tropical moisture at some point, but you should feel free to let your guard down. We made it!

Monday

I’m afraid this week won’t bring the same, absolutely splendid weather we saw at the end of September and early October. However, we’re not going back to full-on summer either. While the air will be more humid than last week, mornings and evenings will still be fairly pleasant.

High temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, with light winds out of the northeast at 5 mph or so. We may start to see some clouds higher in the atmosphere later today and tonight, and these will be related to Hurricane Orlene, a Category-2 storm in the Pacific making landfall in western Mexico today. Alas, we won’t see enough moisture from Orlene to bring much needed rainfall to our area. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

The story of the mid-week will be that of a slowly warming trend, with daytime highs rising from the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and overnight lows from the mid-60s to the upper-60s. However, in terms of humidity the dewpoints—a measurement of moisture in the atmosphere—are still going to remain in the 60s. What does this mean? Simply that while our air will feel more humid, it won’t be uncomfortably or oppressively so. Skies will be mostly sunny with, alas, very little chance of rain.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs will be around 90 degrees this Friday, but at some point later in the day, or overnight, a weak front should push into the area. Don’t expect miracles from this one. For starters, it seems unlikely to produce any rainfall. But it should knock the humidity back some, and trim a few degrees off our daytime and nighttime temperatures. Honestly, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s, this weekend should again be pretty nice.

I know you’re all wondering about rainfall. The bad news is that it’s still a ways off. The somewhat hopeful news is that, with the next front, which I would pencil in around October 13 or 14, the models do seem a little more bullish about rain chances. I would caution that this is 10 days out, so it lies at or just beyond the edge of our ability to predict. But I’m an optimist, so I’m saying there’s a chance …

Happy Saturday. I hope your weekend, wherever you are, and whatever you’re doing, is as pleasant as the weather outside. This post is simply a final reminder of the special Fall Day Celebration we’re holding on Sunday, from 10 am to noon, at the Houston Botanic Garden. The event is free and open to all. Why are we doing this? Because we think fall is worth celebrating, and the whole team here at Space City Weather just wanted to try this. You can expect the following activities on Sunday:

• Reliant table: Hugo mascot, branded giveaway items, coloring pages, bean bag toss game, raffling off Astros signed baseball and jersey and tickets
  • Luis Garcia jersey or Yuli Gurriel signed baseball
  • Tickets for next Tuesday’s game
• Face painting
• Ella Coffee cart
• Smoothie and snack truck
• Photo backdrop
• Meet-and-greet: Matt, Maria, Lee, Dwight, and I will all be there
• Botanic Garden: Free entry to the garden for the rest of the day (guests can go explore the rest of the grounds after our meet-and-greet), nature/LEGO themed scavenger hunt for kids

Some people have asked about the timing of the event, and are concerned about conflicts with church and other activities on a Sunday morning. We hear you. But to be honest, scheduling this celebration has been a challenge. First of all, it had to be after we were certain that fall’s first real front had pushed into Houston. We were finally sure about that a little more than 10 days ago. At the time were not sure the drier and cooler air would stick around for so long as it has. So our timing options were Sunday morning, or an afternoon event at 3 pm. I was concerned it might be a little warm at that time of day, and less conducive to an event celebrating cooler weather. So we went with the morning.

The bottom line is that Sunday morning’s weather will be spectacular, in the 70s, with blue skies. Come on out and say hello, if you can. You can help our planners by RSVPing here, but it’s not required.