Month: August 2024

In brief: Houston’s heat and humidity continue, pretty much without change, for the time being. In the spirit of optimism, in today’s post I identify a couple of silver linings to the ongoing August weather.

Small victories

Houston continues lie under the influence of high pressure, and while there will be some subtle changes in the days ahead the big picture of heat and humidity remains more or less the same. This is fairly typical for August, and there are a few upsides. One is that, with the lack of rain of late, the incredible surge of mosquitoes we saw in July has abated some. And secondly, for as long as there is high pressure in place, it should steer any tropical activity away from us. Even so, these are small victories when the weather is this sultry.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

The current heat wave will peak over the next three days, with high temperatures likely to reach 100 degrees for much of the metro area. We won’t get much, if any relief from winds, which will range from calm to maybe 5 mph. Skies will be sunny, with high humidity. Low temperatures will briefly get down to about 80 degrees overnight. Please take care if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend isn’t going to be much different. It will still be hot, sunny, and humid. Rain chances will still be near zero percent. However, temperatures for most of Houston probably will not reach 100 degrees. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Next week

There won’t be a whole lot of change next week. Skies should still be sunny, for the most part. Highs likely will range from the mid- to upper-90s. I don’t want to say rain chances are zero, because they’re not. But they’re quite low, in the 10 to 20 percent range for most days. Perhaps they’ll be a little bit higher by Friday or Saturday, but one has to squint really hard into the available data to see that.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Debby has moved back inland into the southeastern United States, where it will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding in the Carolinas, before bringing the same to Virginia and the northeastern United States in the coming days.

Beyond Debby there is a new wave that forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are tracking. Most of our model guidance indicates this wave will turn northward before threatening the Gulf of Mexico, but given the time of year we’ll keep an eye on things just in case.

In brief: High pressure has hold of our weather, and that only means one thing for Houston in the summer: Heat. We are going to be hot and sunny for the next few days, before slightly cooler weather arrives next week with a smattering of rain chances.

A word about short forecasts

We don’t believe in wasting your time. So when there’s a lot to write about the weather, we’ll go into detail. And when there’s not, there’s no reason to. Such is the case in August when we’re under the influence of high pressure. And so the forecast today—and probably for the rest of this week!—is likely to be short and sweet. Well, maybe not so sweet.

Wednesday

Houston’s official high temperature, measured at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday, was 98 degrees. We’ll probably reach that mark or go a bit higher today as inland parts of the Houston area touch triple digits. Areas right along the coast will be a few degrees cooler. We’ll continue to see sunny skies, with calm winds in the morning and southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Lows tonight will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

Thursday through Saturday

Our present heat wave is likely to peak during this period, with high temperatures of 100 degrees likely for much of the Houston area. Winds will continue to be light, with lows only falling to 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny.

Sunday and next week

As high pressure starts to retreat slightly, we’ll see temperatures come down just a bit. On Sunday we’re still going to see sunny skies, but highs likely will only rise into the upper 90s. Later next week, perhaps starting on Monday, we’ll see some slightly better rain chances. Skies are still going to be mostly sunny, but the sea breeze may help to promote some afternoon showers. In terms of chances we’re probably looking at something on the order of a 10 to 30 percent chance into the middle of next week. So it’s not much, but it’s not nothing in mid-August, either.

Tropics

As anticipated, Tropical Storm Debby has moved off the the South Carolina coast into the Atlantic Ocean where it may strengthen some during the next 24 hours. However, the primary threat from this system remains very heavy rainfall, initially in the Carolinas and eventually on into Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Beyond Debby, things look to remain quiet for the next week or so, which is a fine place to be heading toward the middle of August.

In brief: Today’s post goes into just how hot this week is going to get in Houston, and when we might expect a smidgen of relief. We also discuss the disastrous rains from Debby over the southeastern United States, and another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea. Finally, if you’ve been noticing data issues on our app, we have an explanation.

A quick note on our app

If you opened our iOS or Android apps in the past couple of days, you may have noticed that weather data was missing. Issues with AccuWeather resulting in data ceasing to flow. We’re still working through the problem, but in the meantime, we’ve released a version of the app that reverts to using National Weather Service data. Make sure the devices where you’ve installed the app are set to auto-update and you should be good. Or, go to the respective app stores and manually download the latest version, which should appear today or tomorrow.

And it’s not just a bug fix: We’ve now made it easy to submit a bug report to us, which auto-populates with the technical details we need to chase down the issue. Tap/click the Settings gear icon in the drawer that shows all the cities and look for “Send Feedback.” Choose your email software at the screen that appears and an email with much of the needed info filled will be generated. Add as much detail about what you’re seeing and send it.

Thanks for your patience, and thanks for using the SCW app!

Tuesday

With high pressure firmly in control of our weather, today will be sunny and hot. High temperatures will push into the upper 90s for the majority of the Houston metro area, with a few inland locations possibly hitting 100 degrees. Do not expect much relief from a breeze, as winds will max out at about 5 mph. We may see a few clouds mix in this afternoon, but the chance of a shower is, at best, 10 percent. Low temperatures will fall only to about 80 degrees overnight.

Wednesday through Saturday

The heat will peak during this period, with high temperatures reaching around 100 degrees most days. Skies will be mostly sunny to completely sunny during this period, with clear, warm nights. Winds will remain low throughout the period. Rain chances are effectively zero. Houston in August, you’ve got to love it, right? Just kidding. I’m counting down the days until September (we have 26 left, by the way).

Sunday and next week

As high pressure backs off, we should see temperatures start to back off slightly on Sunday, perhaps into the mid- to upper-90s for most locations. It’s not much, but it’s something. We may also start to see some slightly better rain chances with some sea breeze showers starting Sunday or Monday. But we’re still looking at predominantly sunny skies, and any rain chances are likely on the order of 20 percent daily.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Debby is continuing to pound the coastal regions of Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rainfall, and it’s likely to continue to do so for a couple more days as the storm essentially stalls offshore. This is already producing devastating flooding in locations such as Savannah and Georgia. We have more details about all of this on The Eyewall.

The National Hurricane Center also continues to track a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea that is moving a little north of due west. There has been a hue and cry about this system on social media, as a handful of operational runs of the GFS model have brought a tropical system to Texas. While we cannot rule that out, there remains little support for such a scenario in the ensembles. The most likely outcome is a weak disturbance that continues to plow westward, remaining south of Texas. Regardless, we’ll keep an eye on things.

In brief: Congratulations, Houston. We’ve reached the hottest week of the year so far. Many locations in the area will hit 100 degrees for several days this week as sunny skies predominate, with warm and sultry nights. As high pressure backs off, temperatures may start to come down slightly by the weekend.

Peak summer

The first full week of August is, historically, the hottest week of the summer in Houston. At this time of year the Sun still reaches a high angle in the sky (77 degrees), we’re prone to high pressure systems, and there’s no possibility yet of a meaningful cool front. Every day we get deeper into August we lose about 1 minute and 30 seconds of daylight, the Sun is slightly lower in the sky, and start to get on a glide path toward fall. But early August? There is no hope for anything but heat and humidity. And we are going to have plenty of that this week as high pressure dominates.

Monday

Temperatures may not reach 100 degrees today for most of the Houston area, but they’ll be close, in the upper-90s for all locations but the coast. Winds will be light, from the east, at about 5 mph. Skies will be sunny. For areas south of Interstate 10, there’s the barest chance of a shower this afternoon, perhaps 10 percent or so. I mention this only because chances are essentially zero for the rest of the week. Low temperatures tonight are unlikely to fall below 80 degrees for much of the region.

Tuesday to Friday

Most of Houston is likely to hit triple-digit heat during this period. In addition to highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees, each day will see sunny skies, with light westerly winds. Lows will only reach about 80 degrees. Please take heat and sunshine precautions if you’re outside during the middle of the day.

Saturday, Sunday, and next week

At some point the high pressure system firmly in control of our weather this week is going to relent somewhat. That should begin to happen this weekend, but I still expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the upper 90s. A slight chance of rain returns on Sunday, likely in the form of isolated showers along the sea breeze. Most of next week should see slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in mid- to upper-90s and possibly some higher rain chances. We’ll see.

Tropics

Hurricane Debby made landfall in the coastal bend area of Florida this morning, near where Hurricane Idalia did so a year ago. As we’ve been recounting on The Eyewall all weekend, this will not be a messy storm just for Florida, but a very serious inland flooding event for parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. In Houston we know about the potency of stalling storms and heavy rainfall.

In addition to Debby, there is a tropical wave that is about to enter the Caribbean Sea and should to track more or less due west this week. The global models have been all over the place in regard to what will ultimately happen to this system over the next 10 days. Although it’s conceivable that an organized tropical system could ultimately come to Texas, that is just one of a range of many possibilities. Since it’s August, we’ll need to watch the tropics closely now.