Month: January 2025

In brief: A complicated winter storm for Houston next week continues to give us fits in weather modeling, with today’s flavor being the potential for more snow and sleet than anything else. However, we expect the forecast to continue changing over the weekend and will keep you posted. Either way, travel across the Houston area may become very difficult Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winter storm update

What has changed since yesterday? Well, a lot. The storm is back. But this time it’s a bit colder overall, which means perhaps more in the way of snow and sleet than ice. That would be good news. That said, there remains a ton of uncertainty. As a native of New Jersey and having cut my teeth forecasting in Upstate New York, I have learned to never take a winter weather forecast from models literally. This is doubly true in the South where snow and ice are generally outside the bounds of climatology, which tends to give models fits and leads to us having to caveat every single thing we say.

Anyway, here’s the NWS National Blend of Models snow forecast for the last several runs. This incorporates a bunch of models and weights them. You can see a lot of fluctuation in outcomes here.

What are we confident in? The timing. Precipitation should begin, lightly on Monday afternoon or evening. The height of the storm would likely be from about 4 AM to Noon Tuesday, with conditions slowly improving Tuesday afternoon. We are also fairly confident that Wednesday morning should be the coldest morning next week. A tropical-plant damaging freeze is likely on at least one or two mornings. An irrigation system damaging freeze is also likely if precautions are not taken.

What are we not confident in? How much of what falls where. While the models have brought the storm back into the forecast since yesterday, they remain a bit split on exactly how it plays out. We can say that in general today, it appears the highest odds of snow are north and east of Houston and the highest odds of ice are south of Houston and near the coast. Beyond that? We can’t say much. Unfortunately, that’s the most important question to answer in terms of travel conditions, school closures, etc. We will get some confidence on this through the weekend. We would think that by the morning of the MLK holiday, decisionmakers will have enough to work with.

What else aren’t we confident in? How cold it gets Wednesday morning. Snow cover is a significant component of what we refer to in meteorology as “ideal radiational cooling,” the premise being clear skies, light winds, and snow cover all contribute toward an ideal scenario for cold weather. Without snow cover next week, we’ll likely see mostly 20s for lows with a few teens north. Cold for sure, but nothing extreme. However, let’s say we get 2″ of snow across Houston. Then we could easily shave an additional 5 degrees off that, nudging us into the teens everywhere except the coast.

So there is a lot to unpack here still, and over the next couple days we should begin to see clarity. Eric and I will keep you posted on all that as it evolves with regular updates through the weekend.

Houston Marathon

I admire anyone that runs a marathon. I especially admire anyone that does so with temperatures in the 30s and a north wind gusting up to 25 mph or so. That’s what we have for you on Sunday. Temps will rise a little through the run, possibly getting to near 40 degrees by the end, but either way, it’s going to be very cold. Good luck to Eric and to all those participating in the run(s) this year!

Rest of the forecast

For those of you with weekend plans, there could be an isolated shower this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon as the front moves in, but otherwise it looks dry. Temperatures will peak in the upper-60s or low-70s today, so bust out the shorts and enjoy! Tomorrow will likely get into the 60s before the front hits in the afternoon. Temperatures will then fall tomorrow evening through the 50s and 40s and into the 30s in most of the area, with some 20s in more rural spots north of I-10 by Sunday morning. Sunday gets up to the low or mid-40s, maybe and looks windy and cold.

Monday will start in the 20s and warm into the upper-30s to low-40s. Depending on how the storm evolves, look for lows in the upper-20s and highs in the low or mid-30s on Tuesday with a breeze as well. Wednesday will probably get up near 40, but as noted above, there is some uncertainty on how cold it gets in the morning. And then a more proper warm up ensues for later next week.

Again, we will keep you posted regularly through the weekend on next week’s cold and potential winter precipitation.

In brief: Houston has three more modestly warm days before a strong front brings much colder conditions by Saturday night. After that we still have a lot of questions about how cold things will get, and what type of precipitation Houston will see. It could be really messy, or it could be mostly fine.

Winter storm status

We are continuing to see a distinct lack of consistency in the forecast for next week, both in terms of low temperatures and the potential for snow or other kind of wintry precipitation. To give you an example of this, over the last 24 hours, the highly respected European model has forecast everything from nearly 1 inch of freezing rain, to 2 inches of snow, to nothing in terms of wintry precipitation. So good luck with that.

When we are vague and talk about the ‘potential’ for a winter storm during the period of Monday night and Tuesday of next week, that’s just what we mean. Although your phone may be telling you there will be six inches of snow or some other type of precipitation, just know that this forecast can, and probably will change. Our advice is to continue to be prepared for wintry precipitation early next week, most likely on Monday night and Tuesday, but to understand that it also may not happen. I know the lack of certainty is frustrating, but it’s the reality of the forecast at this time.

We’ve had a lot of questions about electricity as well, and that’s understandable. This will depend on how cold it gets in Texas, and locally, whether we see a lot of ice (which gets on powerlines and can snap them). At this time I’m leaning toward the potential for lower impacts and fewer outages, but again this will depend on how the forecast plays out.

Thursday

We don’t have any weather concerns today in Houston. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 60s, with mostly sunny skies, and light winds. Honestly, this is a good candidate for the nicest day of 2025 so far. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-40s, with clear skies.

Friday

This will be the warmest day for awhile, even as clouds build over the area. Expect highs in the upper 60s to possibly 70 degrees. We’ll also see humidity levels briefly spike up on Friday afternoon and evening. You remember what humidity is, right? Lows on Friday night will only drop into the 50s.

Saturday

Hello, cold front day. The front should arrive some time on Saturday morning, in the form of drier air and stronger northerly winds. However, as skies will be partly to mostly sunny after the front, and the colder air will lag behind a bit, I think high temperatures will still get into the low- to mid-60s for many locations on Saturday. So while this will be a breezy day, it won’t be a particularly cold day. That will change toward evening, however, as colder air arrives with the setting Sun. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-30s in Houston, with the potential for a light freeze for inland areas.

Sunday

For the Houston Marathon, there’s no way to get around this. It’s going to be cold. We’re going to see brisk northerly winds which will, at times, be gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. Start line temperatures will likely be around 34 to 38 degrees in downtown Houston, rising to the lower 40s by late morning. So yeah, a very cold race. By Sunday afternoon temperatures likely will reach the upper 40s. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around the freezing level in Houston, give or take, with the coast remaining above freezing and inland areas dropping a few degrees below freezing.

MLK Day

If you’re planning on attending the parades on Monday, or participating in some other activity related to the holiday, please bundle up. Skies will be partly sunny, with high temperatures around 40 degrees. There’s also the potential for a light drizzle on Monday afternoon or evening.

Monday night through Wednesday

This is the likely period of coldest weather in Houston, and when we are most concerned about the potential for freezing weather. The problem is we don’t really know how cold conditions will get in Houston or surrounding areas, and we don’t know precisely how much precipitation will fall, or when. So right now we’re smacking you with a big snowball of uncertainty.

My sense is that temperatures in central Houston will probably fall into a range of 25 to 35 degrees on the mornings of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. That obviously ranges from a borderline hard freeze to non-freezing. (Obviously, the likelihood of a hard freeze is significantly higher for locations such as The Woodlands, and points to the north and northwest of Houston). So if you have sensitive pipes and plants you should be preparing for very cold weather here. But the reality is, we may not get that cold.

As for precipitation, a coastal low pressure system is likely to bring some form of it to the region on Monday night and Tuesday. Because of the uncertainty on temperatures, this could still come in the form of rain, snow, freezing rain, or possibly even sleet although that looks like a lesser possibility. The bottom line is Tuesday morning may be pretty messy on the roads around Houston. Or it could be fine. It may yet be a couple of days before we can say for sure. I want to see some agreement and consistency in the models, and as yet there is none.

Temperatures begin to warm up on Wednesday and Thursday.

In brief: Today’s post delves into the uncertainty around the potential for snow early next week, as well as just how cold things will get. The reality is, in Houston, one just cannot confidently forecast snow nearly a week out. As for temperatures, we appear to be trending away from extreme cold, which is a good thing.

Winter storm real talk

Whenever there’s the possibility of snow in Houston, people lose their minds. Some people are absolutely giddy at the rare prospect of snow. Others fear what it will do to Houston’s unprepared drivers and untreated roads. Kids anticipate the rarest of all gifts in Houston, a ‘snow’ day.

Here’s the reality from a forecaster’s standpoint. Yes, there is an increasing possibility of snow or sleet beginning next Monday night and Tuesday, but this is still nearly six days away. This means our confidence in forecasting any wintry precipitation remains very low. There is probably about a 50-50 chance we see some kind of wintry mix, so set your expectations accordingly. Our confidence in the forecast will increase as we get closer.

Wednesday

We’re seeing fairly widespread, light showers this morning, and these will continue for most of the day. The showers are more numerous south of Interstate 10, closer to the source of moisture. None of this rain is likely to turn heavy, so mostly the will just be a cold, light rain. With mostly cloudy skies, expect high temperatures in the low 50s. Temperatures tonight will drop to about 40 degrees, with clearing skies.

Thursday

NICE DAY ALERT! This will be a mostly sunny day day with high temperatures in the low 60s. Honestly, looking ahead at the forecast, this is probably going to be the nicest day outside for quite awhile. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 60s.

Friday

We’ll see some blue skies on Friday morning, maybe, but then clouds will start top build. Temperatures will approach 70 degrees during the afternoon hours, with modestly increasing humidity levels. There will be a slight chance of some showers on Friday night, but these now look to be mostly light instead of anything threatening. Lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This will be a partly sunny day, with highs in the low 60s ahead of a strong cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible just ahead of the front as it moves through, but for many people this could be a dry passage. I expect the front to reach central Houston by around noon, and push off the coast shortly afterward. We may hold on to temperatures in the 50s for a few hours after the front passes, but as the sun sets and northwesterly winds blow, much drier and colder air will be pushing in. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 30s.

Sunday

You read that right, marathon runners. I now expect start-line temperatures in Houston to be in the vicinity of the mid-30s. We don’t need to worry about precipitation, fortunately, and skies should be mostly clear. What I’m watching mostly closely is winds. Right now they’re likely to be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. The trend in gusts has been slightly lower, so for now I’d anticipate gusting up to about 25 mph. That is certainly no picnic, but it beats 30 or 35 mph. The bottom line is that if you’re running, I recommend bundling up. I’ll be wearing my warmer gloves for this one. Highs on Sunday will reach the mid- to upper-40s most likely before a possible freeze on Sunday night.

MLK Day

The forecast models have, in recent runs, backed off some of the extreme cold anticipated for next week. The caveat at the beginning of this post about snow uncertainty still applies to temperatures as well. But at this point I would expect most of Houston to experience a light freeze on Monday morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs will only reach 40 degrees. So if you’re participating or watching a parade, please dress warmly.

The rest of next week

Beginning Monday evening, through Wednesday morning, is when the Houston region will experience the best chance of a wintry mix and coldest temperatures.

We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.

With regard to precipitation, we’ll start to see an influx of moisture beginning later on Monday and Monday night, and this will bring a modest chance of precipitation on Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. With the colder air this brings the possibility of snow (most likely at this time), sleet, or freezing rain into the forecast. Because slight temperature differences in the atmosphere will determine the type of precipitation, we just cannot make a call on whether it will snow, sleet, or rain in Houston during the first half of next week. But it’s a distinct possibility, along with some mobility issues on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. We’ll be watching all of this closely over the weekend for you, with regular updates.

A warming trend begins Thursday.