Month: June 2025

In brief: Mostly minimal shower and storm coverage this weekend in Houston will increase by a good bit next week. Additionally, we take a look at why this hurricane season has started quieter than most recent ones.

Hurricane season so far

The forecast is pretty straightforward today, and we’ll get into that below. First, today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.

We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Today

We had a slightly higher coverage of showers yesterday than we did Wednesday, and today should be fairly similar. Most of us will stay dry, but some areas could see up to an inch of rain or so in a cooling downpour. We hit 95 yesterday officially, and we should make a run for that again today.

Weekend

The coverage of showers may actually decrease some this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday carry something like a 15 to 20 percent chance of a shower. Doesn’t mean it won’t rain, but it does mean the odds aren’t high! Sunday probably carries a slight edge over Saturday in terms of higher shower coverage. Temperatures will be steady with low to mid 90s for highs and mid to upper 70s for lows away from the coast, with low 80s at the coast.

Next week

While this week was pretty quiet after Monday, next week should be a bit busier each day. We’ll probably carry 30 to 40 percent or even higher rain chances each afternoon, with pop up thunderstorms.

The culprit will actually be the high pressure system responsible for record heat that I’m sure you’ll hear about in the news across the Eastern U.S. As that anchors over the Appalachians, it will actually open the door to added Gulf moisture in Texas. Precipitable water (or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere) increases about 25 percent or more next week compared to today. That should help boost thunderstorm coverage each day.

The increased coverage of storms probably means we see more low-90s for highs and 70s for lows areawide next week.

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains largely the same: highs in the low 90s with a few, sporadic showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon through the weekend. Next week should see somewhat better rain chances. I also share a tip that helps me survive summer in Houston.

A beginner’s guide to surviving summer in Houston (psychologically)

There are some people who love summer in Houston. They love the heat. They love the long days with 14 hours of sunshine. They love the ability to get a tan in about 15 minutes in the middle of the day. They abhor the onset of fall because it means the end of summer. If you’re one of those people I have two things to say to you. One, bless your heart. And two, the following section is not for you. Please skip ahead.

OK, those who are still reading “survive” summer in Houston rather than “thrive,” right? I grew up in Michigan, but moved to Texas in 1991, and arrived in H-town in 1997. This will, therefore, be my 28th summer in our (fair?) city. Growing up in Michigan I had never experienced a hurricane nor the humidity that comes along with dewpoints in the upper 70s. But in the decades since then I have learned a couple of tricks that, psychologically at least, help me weather summer weather here. I want to share one of them today.

I’m writing this post now because, in some sense, our turn toward fall begins tomorrow, on the summer solstice. It is the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere (in Houston it will be 14 hours, 2 minutes, and 18 seconds, to be precise). You probably think I’m crazy. By some definitions, this is the beginning of summer! However, it also means that, starting with Saturday, every day will be that little bit shorter for the next six months. The Sun will be that little bit lower in the sky. Accordingly we are sliding toward fall, however slowly.

Of course the hottest time of the year still remains about six to eight weeks from now, due to a variety of factors including the fact that it takes longer for water to heat up than land. And fall, in reality, is at least three months away. So this trick is just psychological. But for me, just the fact that the days are getting a wee bit shorter helps me realize that fall will come even though it is hot as blazes outside. After tomorrow, it’s inevitable.

Thursday

Our weather won’t be changing much from today through the weekend. The predominant pattern remains one of modest high pressure that will limit (but not completely exclude) rain and keep temperatures in the low 90s. For today, that means high temperatures generally in the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. The sea breeze this afternoon will likely spark a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I expect these to be fairly scattered in nature. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are basically locked into the same pattern through the weekend. If you have outdoor plans you can generally expect sunny skies, but you may have to briefly dodge a few showers. Overall daily rain chances are probably in the ballpark of 20 percent. Otherwise late June is going to feel like late June.

Next week

As high pressure begins to ease off to the east, overall atmospheric conditions will begin to favor increased rain chances. I don’t think we’re looking at any type of flooding, but we should see enough light to moderate rainfall next week to help limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees for most of the week. All in all, conditions look to be fairly mild for June in Houston, which isn’t nothing.

In brief: You probably don’t need to check the weather forecast every day, at least for the next few days, as our pattern looks to remain fairly consistent. Houston will see typical temperatures for June, with a smattering of rain chances through the weekend. Next week could be a little more dynamic as high pressure shifts eastward.

High pressure, but not HIGH pressure

Houston remains largely under the influence of high pressure, expanding into the area from the southwest. But this is not a “death ridge” like we sometimes see later during the summer, when high pressure sits on top of the area and pushes temperatures up into the triple digits. As a result we are going to feel “June hot” for the foreseeable future, which is to say highs closer to 90 degrees than 95 degrees for most of the area. Rain chances will largely (but not completely) be squelched this week, but should improve to some extent next week.

Wednesday

I expect today to be a lot like Tuesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Winds today do look a little bit stronger than yesterday, so we could see some southerly gusts up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph later this afternoon. I expect we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, but I would put chances at perhaps 10 percent or a only a touch higher. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These days will be similar, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures probably slotting in somewhere between 90 and 93 degrees. I think wind gusts will be a little bit lower, but rain chances a little bit higher. On Thursday, the Juneteenth holiday, there will perhaps be a 30 percent chance of rain, mostly during the afternoon, and maybe nearly that high on Friday. For the most part these should be quickly passing showers. Nights remain warm and humid.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same: highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and plenty of humidity. I do expect we’ll continue to see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven by the sea breeze. But whether these are isolated, or reach the point where they hit say 30 percent of the area, I cannot really say with confidence.

Next week

At some point next week the ridge will shift eastward, and as this happens our atmosphere will open up to somewhat better rain chances. Whether this happens by Monday or Tuesday, or later in the week, is difficult to predict. Temperatures, regardless, should remain in the range of 90 degrees. And hey, the longer we get into summer without a sustained stretch of temperatures in the mid- or upper-90s, the better to me.

In brief: Overall our forecast is consistent for the rest of the week. We are going to see fairly normal weather for June, which is to say warm temperatures but not excessively hot. The humidity, of course, will be constant. And in a change from the last week our rain chances will go down significantly.

A stalemate in the atmosphere

Over the next several days we are going to see two competing impulses in the atmospheres overhead. To our southwest, a ridge of high pressure will be attempting to expand into Texas. At the same time, a few upper level disturbances will be attempting to slide down from the northwest. So what will happen? Mostly, I expect fairly tranquil weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and warm—but not too hot—temperatures as we go through the longest days of the year. Although we will have some shower chances, increasingly it looks like the high pressure system will keep most (but not all) at bay.

Tuesday

Today should be sunny and warm, with a high temperature in the vicinity of the low 90s. Winds, generally, will be light in the range of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. To the extent we see rainfall, the majority of it is likely to remain offshore. But we definitely could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. For the most of us, however, no. Lows tonight will trop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week looks similar. If you squint, it’s possible to see some slightly higher rain chances on Thursday, maybe 30 or 40 percent. But these three days should all bring highs in the low 90s, mostly sunny skies, and warm nights. In terms of winds, Wednesday afternoon could get a little breezy, but overall things look pretty mild.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern should persist into the weekend. Expect highs in the low 90s, a fair amount of sunshine, and perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or maybe a thunderstorm.

Next week

There is some evidence that the aforementioned high should retreat a bit next week, opening us up to a bit better rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s a week off so I don’t have much confidence. However the good news is that it does not appear as though we’re going to see a temperature spike into the mid- or upper-90s any time soon. (Note: This is not a taunt.)