Summary: Houston will see at least some scattered showers today, with the slight potential for some thunderstorms. Tuesday looks warm (almost hot) and sunny, and should be our warmest day of 2024 so far. After that we’ll be warm and mostly cloudy until the weekend, when conditions turn cooler.
Monday
Fog is present along and near the coast this morning as dewpoints and temperatures are the same, in the upper 60s. It will dissipate by mid-morning. High temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with persistent cloud cover. The big question for today is rainfall. There should be plenty of moisture available, but overall conditions are not ideal. What you can probably expect is scattered, light showers this morning. This afternoon, with daytime heating, some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but these should be scattered to isolated. The bottom line is that half the area may see no rain at all, but a few pockets probably could see heavy showers and lightning. Overall, the potential for stronger showers today appears to be slightly higher along and north of Interstate 45.
Rodeo forecast
Temperatures will be plenty mild this evening heading into the rodeo, in the low 70s. The concern, discussed above, is the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Overall the odds are fairly low, probably 20 percent or less, this evening before, during, or after the show. But this is not zero, so please be weather aware. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s, so it will be mild after the show.
Tuesday
For those who want sunshine and heat, Tuesday is the day. As Matt described last week, we’re going to see a decaying front push into Houston that will bring some slightly drier air (but no cooling). This, combined with mostly sunny skies, will allow high temperatures to pop. Right now the most likely outcome is highs in the mid-80s, but a few locations could push toward 90 degrees. Regardless it’s going to feel very warm for early March. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid-60s.
Wednesday
This looks to be a partly sunny day in the low 80s, with another mild night.
Thursday
A few more clouds should help to limit highs to the upper 70s. Some low shower chances return later on Thursday and Thursday night.
Friday
We’ll see another chance of showers on Friday ahead of a cold front. At this point I’m not convinced how widespread precipitation will be, so I’ll say that about half of the region will at least see some light rain. But we’ll see. Look for highs around 80 degrees with drier air arriving sometime during the daytime with the front. Overnight lows drop to around 60 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will be for those who like cooler conditions. Highs both days will likely range from 65 to 70 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances look low to non-existent. Lows temperatures will bottom out at around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s possible for inland areas.
Next week
We’ll see a warming trend heading into the middle of next week, with highs getting back into the 70s. Some decent rain chances return by around Wednesday or so.
Guess I’ll be waiting for the weekend temps to get here. Does anyone else remember when March was cool with a high temp in the low 70s?!
The normal high temperature for Houston in early March is 71° Fahrenheit. I would guess, in the 1960s, the March highs were usually in the 70s.
We have always had hot moments in March in every decade. The warmest March on record was actually 1907. It was in the 80s most days that month with lows in the 60s. March of 2022 was actually quite cool with our last freeze occurring on March 13th that year. There can be sharp variations in March year to year. The earliest 90 degree on record in Houston was actually on February 20th 1986. As annoying as it is, early season heat is nothing new to our region but it does seem to be happening more often in recent years.
Last year. 8 days it was 72 degrees or colder at IAH, including 3 days in the 50s. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx
Ok here we go. BR asked “Does anyone else remember when March was cool with a high temp in the low 70s?! Well get this. It was Saturday Mar 2nd 2002 when we had a going away get-together for my son who was headed for basic training in the Army. On that day we had a low of 37 that morning, a high of 57 on Saturday, then that evening a low of 25 before having a high of 45 on Sunday.
Last year. 8 times at IAH. In fact, 3 times were in the 50s.
While I wouldn’t want snow, I would appreciate it being 5 degrees cooler on the daily high and low until Saturday. There is no reason it should be this warm in early March. None.
My roses and all my flowers are loving this weather! I’ve already had some beautiful irises blooming and I’m now up to 5 rose blooms so far! It makes me very happy!
So we had our rain for the year in January. Great
where is the rain? are we getting another dry year? with false rain hopes? This is Houston we are supposed to be hot and humid/rainy.
With El Niño fading and a likely switch to La Niña conditions this summer I am worried about long term drought creeping back in. After good soaking rains in January and early February the last few weeks have been much drier. I don’t know if I can deal with continued drought after last summer…
Isn’t it still El Nino? Why is it so dry?
The eclipse is five weeks from today. In 2017, we were originally planning to go to the St. Louis area until two weeks before when the forecast was showing rain so we pivoted to Wyoming and we had PERFECT conditions. The 14-day forecasts were pretty accurate in that case. I realize that 5 weeks out, I might as well ask the Magic 8-Ball if we will have clear skies but, realistically, how far out will we have an idea of what the cloud cover might look like in different parts of Texas on April 8th?
Well, I like snow. Snow means it’s not 90+ degrees outside, and we aren’t getting hit by a hurricane. Retirement will be to a place that has snow 3-4 times a year.
Then you’ll get a winter the way it is now in the Sierras and you’ll never be seen again. Although, maybe….!
I think we have a capping inversion at mid level again? The jet is still blowing over the southern US so it doesn’t seem to be the dreaded permanent ridge set up at this point. What’s folks view on that…. Like a few others here, hot and humid is fine with me as long as there is also periodic rainfall. Notably, Hobby is still 3” above normal rain gauge YTD but all that was in Jan as pointed out above by Leveut
Why are models and meteorologists so bad at predicting rain? apps always say its going to rain and not a drop. This has been happening in the past three years. Something is off.
I don’t think they like to disappoint, so they make like Pollyanna.