A quiet, pleasant weekend in Houston before humidity and warm weather surges back next week

I’m going to start today’s post off by answering a question we get a lot of this time of year: Is it safe to get plants back outside or plant things because the risk of freezing temperatures is now basically over? Since 1980, today (Feb 18) is the average date of the last freeze in Houston. But freezing temperatures have occurred as late as early April. Given what I am seeing out on the weather maps (some fresh Plains snowpack and bitterly cold air sitting in the northern Rockies & Dakotas next week), I would absolutely advise against moving forward into spring mode just yet. Even with the cold to our north, the risk of another freeze may not be especially high in Houston. But there’s enough risk out there in the longer range forecast models that it would be prudent to hold off at least another week or two.

Today

Temperatures are rather chilly this morning. Lows are generally in the 30s in most spots. With a lingering breeze after last night, wind chill values are in the 20s. Bundle up this morning heading out the door!

We’ll see sun and some passing high clouds through the day today. Expect temperatures to work their way up into the mid-50s in most spots. The breeze will continue trending mercifully lighter than it was last night.

Saturday & Sunday

No issues are expected this weekend. Look for sunshine on Saturday and increasing clouds on Sunday. For those of you with outdoor plans on Sunday, you should be fine. However, I would not be shocked to see at least a couple stray showers, mainly south of Houston on Sunday afternoon or evening. Look for highs in the 60s on Saturday and near 70 on Sunday.

Morning lows will be chilly once again tomorrow morning, but south of Houston they should be at least a few degrees milder than today.

Sunday morning should be milder everywhere, with 40s for most spots and possibly only 50s south of Houston.

Monday

Humidity is going to absolutely surge into the area on Monday off the Gulf. Look for gusty south winds that will allow temperatures to warm deep into the 70s and not drop below the mid-60s Monday night. There may be some showers or a storm on Monday, especially north of Houston.

Tuesday

We’ll warm up even more on Tuesday with an onshore breeze and high humidity. Look for fog to develop, especially close to the coast. Even with any fog, we will probably make an effort to hit or exceed 80 degrees on Tuesday.

A few showers cannot be ruled out, but any organized rain will probably stay well off to our north.

Beyond Tuesday

The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains a bit complicated right now. A cold front is likely to slide toward the area, but whether or not it gets offshore will dictate what temperatures do. We could see lows in the 40s if the front can get offshore. If it doesn’t, lows will be in the 60s. Highs could again push 80 degrees if the front doesn’t get offshore, or we could remain mired in the 50s all day if it does. Until we know what this front is going to do, the best we can say is be prepared for two seasons and a chance of showers late next week.

It does appear, a decisive push offshore should occur by Friday morning which should allow for showers and storms over much of the area, followed by a colder, drier weekend. More details on that Monday.

Quick note

We’re going to being offering our readers a special Presidents’ Day weekend treat this year: I’ve spent some time in recent weeks playing around with and being alerted by various weather apps on my phone. This weekend, I’ll be publishing what I learned in our guide to weather apps (besides ours). Look for that tomorrow or Sunday!