Summary: Houston experienced an absolutely gorgeous day on Monday, and we’ve got a couple of more to go this week with dry air, mostly sunny skies, and pleasant temperatures. We’re still looking at a healthy chance of showers this weekend as a front passes, but accumulations look manageable, with 1 to 2 inches in total for most locations. In this post I also want to address the question of whether the region is likely to receive another freeze this winter.
Don’t look now, but January ends in a couple of days. If we look ahead for the next 10 days, I’m highly confident that we’re not going to see freezing conditions. This gets us through the first week or so of February. Then, the pattern looks fairly warm until the middle of the month, when we may see some cooler weather. But how cold? Will conditions turn freezing? At this point I’d lean toward no, but at that point we’re just outside the window of reliable weather forecasting.
The “average” date of the city’s last freeze comes in the middle of February for Houston, with a slightly later date for outlying areas. So my response to those who are asking whether Houston done with freezes yet for this winter is maybe. For areas south of Interstate 10, I might even say probably. But it’s not really a question I’ll be able answer with any confidence for another two weeks or so.
Temperatures are starting out in the 40s for most locations, a few degrees warmer than Monday. (If you were up early, you may have noticed the sunrise was gorgeous. Conditions will favor pretty sunsets for the next few days as well). It’s going to be another fine day, with low humidity, light winds, and a high temperature of around 70 degrees. Seriously, if you can steal some time outside today, I highly recommend it. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer, dropping into the upper 40s for most.
This will be another fine day with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air. We may see a few more clouds, but I still expect to see a fair amount of sunshine. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees.
As the onshore flow returns later on Wednesday or Thursday morning, we’ll start to see the air turn a bit more humid. The process will be somewhat gradual, however. Looks for highs Thursday of around 70 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.
Friday and Saturday
An upper-level disturbance will approach the region on Friday, bringing a healthy chance of rain. At this point there looks to be a chance of showers on Friday evening, but the better rain chances will hold off until Friday night, and Saturday. I’m not expecting anything too crazy, but much of the area should pick up 1 to 2 inches, with higher isolated totals. The best chance for thunderstorms will come Saturday morning, so if you have outdoor activities this weekend please have a back-up plan. Most likely the rains will end Saturday afternoon or evening.
Both Friday and Saturday will see highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, with fairly humid air. It looks like the surface front will arrive sometime on Saturday evening, ushering in drier and cooler air. Look for lows on Saturday night to drop into the 50s.
Sunday and next week
Sunday should be, like its namesake, sunny. Look for highs in the 60s. It also looks breezy, with a northwesterly breeze at 20 mph or so, with higher gusts. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 40s, give or take. We should see highs in the 60s for the first half of the week, before the 70s return by Thursday or so. I think we’ll stay a little warmer for awhile at that point.