A way-too-early post on whether Houston is done with freezes for this winter yet

Summary: Houston experienced an absolutely gorgeous day on Monday, and we’ve got a couple of more to go this week with dry air, mostly sunny skies, and pleasant temperatures. We’re still looking at a healthy chance of showers this weekend as a front passes, but accumulations look manageable, with 1 to 2 inches in total for most locations. In this post I also want to address the question of whether the region is likely to receive another freeze this winter.

Last freeze

Don’t look now, but January ends in a couple of days. If we look ahead for the next 10 days, I’m highly confident that we’re not going to see freezing conditions. This gets us through the first week or so of February. Then, the pattern looks fairly warm until the middle of the month, when we may see some cooler weather. But how cold? Will conditions turn freezing? At this point I’d lean toward no, but at that point we’re just outside the window of reliable weather forecasting.

Texas should see warmer than normal temperatures during the second week of February. (Pivotal Weather)

The “average” date of the city’s last freeze comes in the middle of February for Houston, with a slightly later date for outlying areas. So my response to those who are asking whether Houston done with freezes yet for this winter is maybe. For areas south of Interstate 10, I might even say probably. But it’s not really a question I’ll be able answer with any confidence for another two weeks or so.


Temperatures are starting out in the 40s for most locations, a few degrees warmer than Monday. (If you were up early, you may have noticed the sunrise was gorgeous. Conditions will favor pretty sunsets for the next few days as well). It’s going to be another fine day, with low humidity, light winds, and a high temperature of around 70 degrees. Seriously, if you can steal some time outside today, I highly recommend it. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer, dropping into the upper 40s for most.


This will be another fine day with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air. We may see a few more clouds, but I still expect to see a fair amount of sunshine. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees.


As the onshore flow returns later on Wednesday or Thursday morning, we’ll start to see the air turn a bit more humid. The process will be somewhat gradual, however. Looks for highs Thursday of around 70 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday and Saturday

An upper-level disturbance will approach the region on Friday, bringing a healthy chance of rain. At this point there looks to be a chance of showers on Friday evening, but the better rain chances will hold off until Friday night, and Saturday. I’m not expecting anything too crazy, but much of the area should pick up 1 to 2 inches, with higher isolated totals. The best chance for thunderstorms will come Saturday morning, so if you have outdoor activities this weekend please have a back-up plan. Most likely the rains will end Saturday afternoon or evening.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday morning. (Weather Bell)

Both Friday and Saturday will see highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, with fairly humid air. It looks like the surface front will arrive sometime on Saturday evening, ushering in drier and cooler air. Look for lows on Saturday night to drop into the 50s.

Sunday and next week

Sunday should be, like its namesake, sunny. Look for highs in the 60s. It also looks breezy, with a northwesterly breeze at 20 mph or so, with higher gusts. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 40s, give or take. We should see highs in the 60s for the first half of the week, before the 70s return by Thursday or so. I think we’ll stay a little warmer for awhile at that point.

23 thoughts on “A way-too-early post on whether Houston is done with freezes for this winter yet”

  1. As one garden guru used to say, “Don’t plant tomatoes until the rodeo has left town.” Although rare, a late freeze can, and indeed has happened into March.

  2. If you need a indicator as to freeing Temps in Texas, find out when Ted Cruze is leaving for Cancun

  3. Looking forward to the last freeze because I need to drop some grass seed and weed-n-feed on my lawn. Last summer killed it off.

  4. S Norway been been walloped far worse than us, their systems shut down with the spilling air. First all that wet precip, then the cold locker. And I consider them hyper-adaptable.

    The polar vortex hasn’t exactly been stable this winter. And I will never forget the 14FEB2021 freeze. I’ve been through many hurricanes, but for some reason that 2021 freeze chilled my blood far worse and stays with me. It’s the bell weather for the end of the remnants of the Holocene, at least in my mind.

    So, hopefully no more freezes, at least for this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if there was another. It certainly feels rather possible.

    I wish everyone safety and health.

    Tysm for all you do, Eric & Matt! ☺️

    ❤ SCW ❤ = the Best! 🌬⚘⚘⚘

  5. Lol. Mid February. I am 66 yrs old. When I was young, my sister and I bought a tomato plant for my dad’s birthday on February 17th. It cost us a quarter at S S Kresges. First my father got on to us for spending do much money on one tomato plant, but he planted it in the ground anyways. But, then a freeze came up and he had to protect it from the freeze, which lead to another complaint from him. But, the tomato survived and went on to produce huge tomatoes. So huge that he bragged about them. But, we didn’t know what kind of tomato plant that it was. We speculated that it was a Beefsteak tomato. But ever since that happened, I’ve always noted that there is one last freeze after February 17th. All in all, it’s just best to wait until March to plant in the ground.

    • I guess it depends on where around Houston you are. near downtown, we seem to get one final blast of cold weather on rodeo cookoff weekend, or plus/minus a week from that date.

      rarely is that cold snap a freezing one, but it can be, you can usually plant with confidence after whatever cold snap hits on or around cookoff.

  6. Well winter was nice while it lasted. I was really hoping to see a full 3 month winter again someday but it seems like that just doesn’t happen anymore around here. We get one really strong cold blast for a few days and then it’s mild and warm for the rest of the winter. Maybe one of these years we will actually get a full extended winter again. Just 3 months without 80s and sticky humidity would also be nice.

    • The last 80 happened on Decembed 9 lol, at least appreciate that because we haven’t gone so far without 80s since winter 2018-19. I do agree with you on the “one blast and it’s over” thing, been a weird trend since the fall of 2015.

      • To be fair this winter has been alot better than the previous 2 we had as far as muggy 80+ degree days go. We have had a nice stretch of fairly chilly and cold weather since Christmas. We also had alot of needed rain which is also been nice. I still give this winter 2 thumbs up. It just would of been nice if we could of had another stretch of cold cloudy and dreary days this February. I think the winters of 2009-2010 and 2013-2014 spoiled me. Those were both prolonged winters with way more cold days than warm days. The 2014-2015 winter was also a good one in this area. You are 100% correct that since 2015 we have had really wacky winters. I personally prefer cold cloudy dreary weather during the winter over sunny warm days. We get enough enough sunny warm days throughout the year. I understand that is not a popular preference in this area, but that is just me. lol

        • I would prefer sunny and cool, or rainy and warm, it seems like a good balance. But my favorite is snowy and cold, or warm with a mix of sun and thunderstorms.

  7. I live “just” north of I-10. I chuckle at the forecasts that use it as a virtual dividing line since I may get what’s north or I may get what’s south. 🤷‍♀️

  8. I was just telling my wife, I think we’re done with the freezes for this winter.

    my personal anecdotal feedback is that once rodeo rolls around, we get one more strong cold front (rarely freezing), and then it’s full on spring, plant your cold sensitive peppers without fear of loss.

  9. Thanks for sharing your knowledge on the likelihood of more freezing temps this winter. I have a greenhouse full of vege seedlings that are anxious to be planted outdoors. I look forward to your next update on this issue.

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