Good morning. Houston has been exceptionally hot and dry—in terms of rainfall, not humidity—for the last four weeks. Our weather has largely been dominated by more or less intense ridges of high pressure. This week there will be two features driving up our rain chances, and bringing temperatures more in line with the “early summer” period.
The first feature is a cool front that will move down to the coast and stall today. Then, by the middle of this week a low pressure system over the gulf of Mexico should approach the Texas coast. This will bring a fair amount of rain to coastal areas of the state, but it remains to be seen whether the bulk of that rainfall drops over the Houston metro area, or further down the coast.
Finally, a quick note to App users: We have fixed a bug that did not display the latest posts. Please download the latest version to fix this, and thank you for your patience.
Monday
For a change, skies today will be partly to mostly cloudy, and this should hold high temperatures to the mid-90s. The front will bring scattered showers to areas primarily north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, with the focus shifting to the coast this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms, generally, will be more likely near the coast. I think about 40 percent of the area will see rainfall, with a few isolated areas picking up an inch or so, and most of the rest a tenth of an inch or two. Winds will be out of the west this morning, turning to the northeast after the front’s passage. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.
Tuesday
Skies will be partly sunny on Tuesday, with highs likely only reaching about 90 degrees. Rain chances look pretty low for inland areas, but for locations south of Interstate 10 I think there’s perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain. Light northeast winds will shift to come from the east.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
As noted in the introduction, our weather during the second half of the work week will largely be determined by the movement and strength of a low-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. There remains only a small chance this system, presently south of Louisiana, will develop into a tropical depression, so the primary weather we’re going to see from it is rainfall. At this time Matagorda Bay seems a more likely bet for the heaviest rainfall than Galveston Bay, but this system will be bringing a lot of atmospheric moisture to the coast, so we will see.
What we can say is that Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall, and that chances of this are significantly higher if you live near south of Interstate 10, and even better the closer you live to the coast. I’d guess areas south of Interstate 10 end up seeing 1 to 4 inches of rain this week, and areas north 0.5 to 2 inches. However, this is a dynamic situation and forecasts will change. Highs will range from the mid-80s to 90 degrees depending on cloud cover and rainfall.
Saturday, Sunday, and July 4th
The weekend looks warmer and sunnier, with highs perhaps in the low- to-mid-90s and diminishing rain chances. At this point the Fourth of July holiday looks to be hot and mostly sunny, but there are no guarantees this far out.
Tropics
Beyond the weak Gulf system, there are two other tropical waves worth watching. The area in red, Invest 94L, looks to be bound for Central America. The other wave’s track is less certain, but at this time I don’t think it’s a threat to the Gulf of Mexico either. For now, therefore, our focus will remain closer to home.
Sounds like Hurricane Season is here.
Finally
Not a Day too soon
Just read this post on my phone. Thanks for the app update 🙂
I’m hoping that the blob of moisture predicted over the Gulf will move about 150 miles NNW so that more of us can get a good soaking. But, you know it’s hot when we think highs in the 80s is an improvement.
How about Port Aransas Beach and South Padre Island..will the system affect those coastal areas? If yes when?
Thanks and love the App!
Already the National Weather Service has reduced probability of rain this week for my area NW of Houston compared to their forecast last night. Nothing’s happening on the radar. I have a feeling we won’t get much rain this week at all.
Paint me skeptical, at least for northern/NE Harris county.
Ridiculous forecasters say it’s going to rain Mon, Tue, Wed, Thurs, Fri, then on Monday it completely changes.
What’s going on, are they chemtrailing Texas again?
I know you all don’t realize they are messing with the weather, but they are.
Go ahead and laugh while our weirdo government plays serious and deadly games.
No conspiracy theories are needed here stranger
I think robots are stealing my mail.
Or as everyone else calls them, birds.
Woke up this morning to the grass all wet, and water dripping from the eaves of the house… apparently we received some rain in Sugar Land overnight.
Our lawn was finally starting to brown, and we’ve lost a couple more drought-resistant shrubs so we’ve been really hitting the breaking point it seems. Walking over the lawn sounds like walking on eggshells.
Drove down to Brazos Bend park yesterday and noticed most of the cornfields we passed were bone dry & brown as well. Yikes.
Question: Are the tropical low and the “cold” front related. Would there be one without the other? Seems quite coincidental to have a rare late June front push an equally rare late June tropical system away from us.
Is the tropical low and the approaching cold front connected? Would one exist without the other? Seems quite a coincidence a late June cold front and a late June tropical low would interact like this. I bit cruel of the meteorological gods…
I think the low was a small disturbance moving west from northern Florida around the big high that was sitting north of us, and the front is giving it a boost and pushing it a bit south.
On the App under locations, please add a Richmond location.
Any chances for significant flooding?
Thinking about the weather ball that used to be downtown… there was a song on TV that was sung about it, I ‘m sure this was all before your time, but wondering if anyone remembers it.
I do not remember a song, but I remember the weather ball. I think it was atop what was known as the Conoco Building downtown in the 50’s/early 60’s. The ball was “color coded” – green for fair weather, red for warmer, white for cooler, and it flashed when rain was expected.
We lived in southeast Houston at the time, about 6 or 7 miles from downtown, and the ball was clearly visible in the evening from our back yard.
There was just some insane wind here in Deerfield Village. I wasnt expecting severe weather…
There was just some insane wind here in Deerfield Village. I wasn’t expecting severe weather…
Ugg, the first time it didnt show up.
Not a drop yet in the Friendswood/League City/Clearlake area
Mega winds here in southwest, thinned out all the deadwood and dropped an inch and a quarter of rain in about 20 minutes. Also, wicked lightning. But very welcome for the trees!
I am doing a happy rain dance as I write this. The rain is finally over our neighborhood.