After a wet mid-week, Goldilocks weather for Houston this weekend

Good morning. We’ll remain in a wet, gray pattern for the next couple of days before drier air and lovely weather arrive in time for the weekend. In fact, the weather for the upcoming Friday through Sunday period should make for the region’s nicest weekend since about April. We’ll also take an early look at the Halloween forecast.

Tuesday

Light to moderate showers are moving from west to east across the Houston area this morning, and high resolution models suggest this precipitation should come to an end around noon, or a few hours later. Accumulations should be modest, under 1 inch for most. Skies will remain cloudy after the rains end, and highs for the most part should stay in the 60s today—so cool and gray. Rain chances will be lower tonight, but not zero, with little overnight cooling due to thick cloud cover.

Wednesday

Texas will see some moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Willa on Wednesday, but nothing to be particularly concerned about. A few thunderstorms are possible, but for the most part we expect the region to just see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Slightly higher amounts are possible along the coast.

This shouldn’t be enough rain to cause problems for the Houston metro area, but central Texas certainly doesn’t need the additional rainfall. The City of Austin had to issue a boil water notice for residents on Monday due to problems with flooding at its water treatment facilities.

Thursday

Rain chances will end Thursday, probably before noon, as low pressure moves off to the east. Eventually we’ll see some clearing, but probably not during the daytime hours. Highs Thursday will probably get close to 70 degrees, and then drop back into the low 50s for inland areas, and low 60s for right along the coast as clouds break up, and we see some radiational cooling.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

It is going to be a really nice weekend. On the back side of these storms we’ll see a northwesterly flow of drier and cooler air to set up the weekend, which will usher in clear, sunny weather. Highs and lows will depend upon your proximity to the coast, but daytime highs should generally be in the upper-70s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It won’t be hot, it won’t be cold. for the most part, it should be just right.

If you’re running the Houston Half Marathon on Sunday, expect start line temperatures of about 60 degrees, with dew points in the low 50s, which should be enough for good cooling during the run. This is pretty good weather for a long run in October.

Next week

The onshore flow will resume sometime later on Sunday or Monday of next week, and this will bring a warmer and muggier pattern back to Houston. Temperatures probably will come back to the 80s, and nights will be a bit warmer than this weekend. The onshore flow should eventually bring clouds back by Tuesday or Wednesday, and along with that rain chances may be on the rise. For Halloween, the GFS model shows a fairly wet Wednesday evening next week, while the European model also hints at rain. Obviously, a wet forecast is sub-optimal, but as we’re still eight days away it’s not worth fretting about too much right now.