A weak cool front passed through Houston this morning, and it will bring a very pleasant end to the work week. We’re still looking at mixed conditions on Saturday, however, followed by a pretty nice second half to the weekend.
Thursday and Friday
The front will knock temperatures down by a few degrees, and will bring some drier air into the region. For Thursday, we can expect a cloudy start to the morning, with clearing skies during the afternoon hours. Friday should be partly to mostly sunny, too. Both days will see highs in the low- to mid-70s. Expect lows Thursday night to be in the 50s for most of Houston except for the coast, and Friday night to be a bit warmer.
Saturday
I’ve had a ton of questions about weather conditions on Saturday—it sounds like a lot of you are planning outdoor weddings this weekend. I’d love to have a concrete answer for you, but we’re in a situation where there are some ingredients for rain showers and storms, but it’s not clear whether they’re going to line up. For example, there will be some moisture to work with, but will it coincide with the best atmospheric lift? And when the front sweeps through, will the atmosphere be unstable enough for strong thunderstorms to form?
My best guess is that Saturday starts out mostly cloudy, and muggy, as the onshore flow resumes. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 70s. Rain chances are better to the north and northeast of Houston, but there’s at least a chance of some moderate rain during the morning hours, with better chances in the city during the afternoon and evening hours. I’m pretty sure we’re not looking at extended, heavy rainfall, and most people will probably not see more than one-half to 1 inch of rain—if that much. There will also be breaks in the rainfall. Probably the best chance for any severe thunderstorms will come during the evening and late-night hours on Saturday into Sunday morning, but even these chances are marginal at best. The front pushes through after midnight.
Sunday and beyond
We can now be pretty confident that rain showers will end pretty early on Sunday morning, and the day will see clearing skies and very nice highs in the 70s. So if you planned your wedding this weekend for Sunday, congratulations. The weather will be excellent.
Most of next week looks dry, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, and seasonal nights in the 50s and lower 60s.
Your weather updates are always greatly appreciated, thank you! What are your thoughts regarding rain specifically for the Kemah, TX area for Saturday, around 11am through 4pm?
There is a kids triathlon Saturday and Sunday morning at NRG stadium. Participants arrive at 6am both days and competition is supposed to end at 11:30am both days. Do you have any concerns about the kids swimming in the pool with regards to thunder and lightning?
Eric/Matt, thank you for this blog. Wondering if you could point me in the direction of the best website to see reported rainfall totals after we have some.
Thanks again!
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
Thank you!
Very good work guys!
Just keep the weather like this though October and I will be very happy (and less likely to move out of Houston).
Saturday is prom night for Conroe School District high schools which includes all of the cities of Conroe, Oak Ridge North and Shenandoah and most of The Woodlands. Could be other districts have their prom nights as well, thus the concern about Saturday weather.
🙂 Thank you guys from the bottom of my heart for this wonderful delay of the summer’s horrid humidity! 🙂