Eric Berger

In brief: Given Houston’s ongoing sunny forecast, we take a trip into the future in today’s post and offer you with a way-too-early forecast for Halloween in Houston. Also, don’t sleep on our weather today: It looks absolutely lovely across the region.

An early peek at a spooky day

Halloween is now nine days away, and it is one day a year when a lot of people congregate outside during the evening hours. For the kids, it’s a mad dash for candy. For the adults, it’s a chance to see one’s neighbors. And for the mosquitoes? Well, let’s not talk about that.

So what will the weather be like this year? As always the usual caveats apply to a forecast this far out, but I am reasonably confident it will not be a cold Halloween. The high temperature will probably be between 75 and 85 degrees, with the most likely temperature around 80. Given this, I would expect lows on Halloween evening (a Saturday this year) to be in the 70s. So all in all, pretty mild.

The bigger question (and concern) is rain. After a very, very dry pattern in terms of rainfall, we are likely to see a pattern change toward the end of next week. Some models rate the best chances on Friday, others on Saturday or Sunday. But at this point I would have a solidly 50 percent chance of rain for Halloween. What I don’t know is whether rain is more likely during the morning, daytime, or evening.

So you’ll have to check the Halloween forecast Now and Later.

Thursday

Today is going to be a rather nice day. We’ll have sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-80s. We are going to experience our lowest humidity of the next 10 days this afternoon. Winds will be light, from the northeast. And then lows tonight will drop to around 55 to 60 degrees in Houston, with temperatures in the 50s for outlying areas.

Friday

This day will bring more of the same, but with slightly higher humidity and nighttime lows on Friday night a few degrees warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The sunshine party continues, with highs generally in the lower 80s. But there are some differences from the previous days. Winds on Saturday will be fairly strong from the southeast, gusting up to 20 mph or so, and this will nudge humidity levels up a bit. As a result our nighttime lows will warm into the mid-60s. And this modest onshore flow should start to bring some clouds back into the area later on Sunday.

Next week

Most of next week should bring partly cloudy skies, with highs around 80 degrees, give or take. Nights look mild, in the low- to mid-60s. I know a lot of our area desperately needs rain. There’s a chance of something happening on Tuesday, but the better rain chances probably will have to wait until Friday or Saturday of next week. If you’re wondering when the region’s next strong-ish cool front might arrive, I don’t see much chance of that before the first week of November.

In brief: Houston’s pleasant, fall-like conditions will continue at least through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and moderate humidity levels. Our clear skies will hold a boon early on Thursday, with good viewing conditions for the Orionid meteor shower.

Meteor shower viewing

The Orionid meteor shower is peaking over the next day or two, but seeing this increase in meteors is complicated by a couple of factors. Locally, the best time to see it will be on Thursday morning, from about 4 am CT and until the onset of nautical twilight. This is because the waxing gibbous Moon sets at 3:53 am, leaving nearly three hours of dark skies before they start to lighten due to the approaching sunrise. The cloud cover forecast for that time period is nearly perfect, with clear skies anticipated.

The Orionids can be one of the better meteor showers a year, with the potential for 20 or more meteors visible per hour, provided you have reasonably dark skies—which of course can be difficult in the urban core of Houston. The source of these meteors is debris from Halley’s Comet, which it leaves behind when shedding ice and dust during its periodic traverses through the inner Solar System. They get their name from the Orion constellation, from which they appear to originate.

Wednesday

Back on Earth there’s nothing too exciting happening with Houston’s weather as high pressure continues to dominate. Conditions are a little muggier this morning, but our flow becomes more northeasterly later today and that should help to push our humidity a bit lower. Expect highs today in the low- to mid-80s with sunny skies and light northeasterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out at about 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be pleasant days with highs in the low- to mid-80s, sunny skies, and lower humidity. Nights should get down to around 60 degrees, again with the upper 50s possible for inland areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 60s. Some clouds are possible later on Sunday. Rain chances remain near zero.

Next week

This overall pattern should remain in place next week, with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. We could see some slight rain chances return on Tuesday, briefly. There are potentially better rain chances from next Thursday into the weekend, but the details of that forecast are far enough into the future to be rather blurry.

In brief: It’s an 80s party, baby! Houston’s high temperatures for the foreseeable future should be in the 80s, with lows mostly in the lower 60s. It’s not cold by any means, but it represents a big change from summer heat and humidity.

High pressure during fall

In summer, in Houston, most people are generally familiar with the impacts of high pressure on weather here. We get sunshine. We get sweltering heat. And we get humidity. But what happens when high pressure establishes itself later in the year, during the middle of fall? Well, my friends, you’re about to find out.

Instead of highs in the mid- to upper-90s, we are likely to see highs in the mid-80s. And instead of lows in the upper 70s, generally, we’ll be 15 degrees or so cooler. Also, thanks to mostly northeasterly winds, we’ll see dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. This will take much of the stickiness out of the air. And I hope you like this pattern, because it is not going anywhere for quite awhile.

Tuesday

Today will be, you guessed it, sunny. Highs should reach the lower 80s this afternoon, with light northeasterly winds. There will be some showers offshore, but for now I don’t anticipate these will migrate inland. Tonight will be a little warmer, with lows only falling into the mid-60s. But this should be the exception rather than the rule for our weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

High temperatures during this period will be in the mid-80s in Houston, with sunny skies, and generally light north and northeasterly winds. This flow will continue to bring just enough dry air into the region to keep our humidity lower, and help overnight lows fall to around 60 degrees in the city. Outlying areas should see even cooler conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

We have more sunshine this weekend, although a few clouds could start to mix in on Sunday. Highs will generally be in the low- to mid-80s, with overnight temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. One thing to look for this weekend will be somewhat stronger easterly winds. These may gust up to 20 or 25 mph from the east during the afternoon hours.

Next week

Not much changes during the first few days of next week: more sunshine and 80s. At some point next week, perhaps on Thursday or Friday, we should start to see a more pronounced southerly flow. This will act to increase humidity and cloud cover and, eventually should push up our rain chances. It is too early to say anything definitive about whether it will rain on Halloween, but it is certainly a possibility at this point.

In brief: Fall arrived this weekend, and our weather was certainly gorgeous. Now that we’ve taken the sting out of summer, is there anything to be done about our growing need for rainfall?

A dry fall

For much of the Houston region it has been a dry end of summer and start to fall. This is particularly the case for regions south and east of Houston, where meaningful precipitation has been extremely scarce. Over the last 60 days, since mid-August, most of this area has received well below 50 percent of its normal rainfall, and the last 30 days have seen almost nothing. Meanwhile some locations in the greater Houston region, such as the western part of the metro area, are probably thinking, what is this guy talking about it?

As a result of this, despite the shorter days, we have seen drought return to Houston. The majority of Brazoria county, as well as chunks of Liberty and Chambers counties, have sunk into a severe drought. Much of the rest of the metro Houston area has reached a moderate drought level. With virtually no rain expected over at least the next 10 days, I fear we could see more of Houston reach ‘severe’ drought status.

An El Niño weather pattern is supposed to bring generally wetter conditions across Texas during the winter months, and we are likely to end up needing it given the state of our soils heading toward November.

Monday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with winds shifting to come from the east. Expect highs in the upper 70s for the most part. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s. With dewpoints hovering in the 50s, the air will continue to feel pleasantly dry outside.

Tuesday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. It may feel slightly more humid, and overnight lows probably will only drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

As the flow turns more northeasterly we should see moderately warm days, in the 80s, with slightly cooler nights. Lows are to be determined, but I expect most of the region to drop down to around 60 degrees each night during this period. Skies will be mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast looks warm-ish, with highs likely in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly sunny skies. Nights should fall into the lower 60s. Dewpoints remain comfortable, such that Houston’s air is unlikely to feel too dry or too humid.

Next week

This pattern should continue into next week, after which time we may start to see a little more humidity. As for rain, which we discussed above, chances look minimal for the next week at least. Perhaps the next time to hope for something is the weekend after next; right around or just after Halloween. We shall see.