Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s forecast we talk about our warm weather across the next week, and when it should start to rain again. We also venture into the perilous mists of long-term forecasting, and issue a preliminary prognostication for Thanksgiving Day in Houston.

Thanksgiving forecast note

Yes, at the end of today’s post we are going to take a stab at forecasting the weather for Thanksgiving this year, which is a full two weeks from today. It’s a little mad to try and do this because, as a general rule, forecasts are usually pretty accurate out to five days, and have some value from five to 10 days out. And after 10 days, well, sometimes forecasters can be a little more accurate than throwing a dart at a wall. Sometimes. We’re going to take our best shot anyway.

The reality is that, because we own and operate Space City Weather independently, Matt and I have complete editorial control. We don’t work for anyone but our readers—that’s you. So we can do zany things, and take chances, and have some fun. That’s why our annual fundraiser is so important. If you can support us, please do. If you can’t that’s totally fine as well. We understand this economy isn’t helping everyone.

Thursday

Lows across most of the region this morning are in the vicinity of 60 degrees, nearly 10 degrees above normal for mid-November. And still, this will be the region’s coolest morning for the next week. That’s because high pressure has moved in, and will remain more or less in place, allowing for a persistent, warm-ish pattern. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees across the area, or slightly above. Winds will come from the southeast, mostly light, but gusting up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with the potential for some patchy fog to develop.

Friday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high generally in the low 80s. Friday night will be mild, in the mid-60s, with the potential for fog. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it will be somewhat humid, but not excessively so (just you wait, it’s coming). Rain chances remain near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunshine will continue, with highs in the mid-80s (possibly nudging into the upper 80s on Sunday). A front will approach the area, but wash out before moving into the region. Nights should remain in the mid-60s for most. Rain chances will be low, perhaps 10 percent, for each day. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

The first half of next week looks rather warm and humid. We’ll see another boost in atmospheric moisture, and this will nudge the humidity levels up. Monday or Tuesday could see a dewpoint near 70 degrees, which is extremely humid for this time of year. High temperatures will likely be in the vicinity of the mid-80s, with partly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm and mild. This increasing moisture will lead to some low-end rain chances, perhaps 20 to 30 percent on Monday through Wednesday.

Then, about a week from now, there is general agreement in the models that some sort of front is going to push into the area, bringing better rain chances and cooler air. Since this is about a week out our confidence is lower in the details. But I’m hopeful it will bring an end to the anomalously warm pattern for November, and also some needed rainfall.

Thanksgiving week

So what does the weather look like a full week after that? We are now entering the danger zone for forecasting. With that said, there is a rough signal in most of our best model guidance for a somewhat stronger front to move into the area about 10 days from now, in the vicinity of Sunday, Nov. 23. This would set the stage for a pleasant week, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and nights in the 50s. My official forecast for Houston on Thanksgiving Day therefore calls for a high of 68 degrees, with partly cloudy skies, and a 30 percent chance of rain. It will be fun to see how wrong this is two weeks from today.

In brief: In today’s post we say goodbye to colder weather and hello to warmer conditions for awhile. Houston will see gradually increasing temperatures and humidity over the next week. However, cooler weather does appear to be on the horizon. I also explain why we hold our annual fundraiser in November.

Overall pattern

Temperatures this morning are generally 15 to 20 degrees warmer than on Tuesday, signaling that our brief incursion of Arctic air is over. Lows across Houston are generally in the mid- to upper-50s at sunrise, and this will likely be our coldest air for at least the next week as high pressure returns to dominate our pattern. We can expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s to prevail for awhile. This general pattern should prevail until the middle of next week, at which time a stronger front may be in the cards.

Wednesday

After today’s moderately chilly start, we will see high temperatures climb into the lower 80s this afternoon. We also will see more pronounced southerly winds, with gusts perhaps pushing as high as 20 mph. There will be a few clouds this afternoon, but mostly sunny skies will generally be the order of the day. With the warmer overall flow, temperatures tonight will only drop into the low- to mid-60s, so another step up even from this morning’s lows.

Thursday and Friday

Our warmer pattern continues. Expect highs mostly in the lower-80s, but some inland locations could push the mid-80s. Skies will be mostly sunny with the southerly winds noted above, and warm nights in the 60s. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will be modestly humid, but nothing too oppressive.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring a continuation of these trends. High temperatures will nudge upward, into the mid-80s for most locations. Skies remain mostly sunny and the models have trended downward with rain rain chances. For now I’d go with maybe 10 percent on Saturday, and 20 percent on Sunday. So very low, and probably not a factor in outdoor activities this weekend. Nights remain warm.

Temperatures will go up before they come down. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The first half of next week appears likely to be warm and muggy, with highs in the mid-80s and humidity levels creeping upward. This will lead to warmer nights as well, in the upper 60s, which is uncharacteristically warm for November. We may start to see a few isolated showers as well. Most of our model guidance is still pointing toward a stronger front arriving some time during the second half of next week. This should bring elevated rain chances in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame, followed by cooler temperatures. But the details of this front remain shrouded with some uncertainty.

Tomorrow I’ll dig a little deeper into this, and also hazard our first (and very tentative) forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Fundraiser

We hold our annual fundraiser in November, because it is typically a quiet weather month. Matt and I very deliberately don’t seek any donations during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season because we don’t want to appear as though we are trying to capitalize on bad weather. But just know that if you support the site now, you’re ensuring that we can provide quality information year-round, in the good weather times, and in the inevitably bad weather times. For more information on how to donate or purchase merchandise, please visit this page.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss how cold conditions got in the Houston region this morning, and then look ahead to warmer days. We also consider the potential for rain chances this weekend, and a stronger front next week.

How low did we go?

This morning’s post is a little bit late because I wanted to get a good read on just how low temperatures in the region went this morning. Although the numbers are not official yet, the city’s primary station at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to at least 37 degrees (the record minimum for today is 32 degrees, set in 1987). Some of the usual cooler spots, including Conroe, Cleveland, Brenham, and Navasota, all recorded a light freeze this morning, and the vast majority of the metro area dropped into the 30s, barring the immediate coast. In short, it’s rather chilly for early November. However this won’t persist. Last week we described this front and short and sharp, and temperatures will moderate quickly today.

Veterans Day

If you’re participating in a ceremony to honor the nation’s veterans this morning, you can expect sunny skies and warming temperatures. We should be in the 50s by mid-morning, and headed to the lower 70s this afternoon. Light easterly winds will shift to come from the south later this morning, and that will herald the beginning of an onshore flow. Lows tonight, accordingly, will only drop into the upper 50s. So very much on the warmer side.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The remainder of the work week will see mild weather. Expect highs generally in the low 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be near zero. Winds will be light in the morning, but there may be some southerly gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoons. With dewpoints in the low 60s the air will be modestly humid, but not oppressively so. Nights will be on the warm side, falling only into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although previously it looked as though a front may push into the Houston area this weekend, that no longer appears likely to happen. Instead the front is likely to approach the area but effectively wash out before moving into Houston proper. So what does that mean for our weather? I expect to see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with warm nights. With plenty of moisture and the possibility of a disturbed atmosphere, I think we’ll see a slight (perhaps 20 or 30 percent) chance of rain on Saturday, and maybe a better chance (50 percent?) on Sunday. We’ll probably need to keep using pencils and erasers on this forecast for another day or two before our confidence increases.

Next week

It’s possible that a weak front does make it by Tuesday or so, but we probably will have to wait until later in the week (in the Nov. 20-21 range) for something a little stronger. The bottom line is that, at some point next week, I’m fairly confident we’ll see some pretty healthy rain chances and cooler weather. But before then we’re going to have a goodly string of 80-degree days.

Fundraiser

Matt and I wanted to thank everyone who donated to our fundraiser, which kicked off on Monday. You can find all the details here on merchandise to purchase, or how to donate. Your support really does make a difference!

In brief: We’ve got a lot to get to today. First up is our region’s coldest night of the season, by far, in which some far inland areas may experience a light freeze. Then, looking ahead, we have our first real rainfall in weeks on the horizon. And finally, we are excited to share details about our annual fundraiser, which begins today.

2025 fundraiser

It’s here!

Our annual fundraiser, in which you can buy merchandise or simply donate, begins this morning. This is your one opportunity a year to directly support our efforts to provide accurate information, without hype, to the greater Houston region. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give. But if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all.

For more information, see our information page. To jump right to the merch, click here.

Monday and Monday night

We are starting out with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s in the far north of the region (hello Conroe) to low 40s in Houston, to upper 40s right along the coast. And despite sunny skies, we are unlikely to see high temperatures rise above 60 degrees today. Winds will be decidedly lighter than on Sunday, but we still could see some northerly gusts through the early afternoon hours.

After that, our focus turns toward tonight when clear skies and light winds will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. In the center of Houston’s urban core I expect low temperatures to hold at around 40 degrees, but for many areas outside of the central city and away from the coast, we are likely to see lows drop into the 30s. Some areas north and north east of the city may flirt with a light freeze, including parts of Montgomery and Liberty counties.

Tuesday

Veterans Day will start out cold, but temperatures should rebound into the upper 50s by mid-morning, going all the way up to the lower 70s in the afternoon with ample sunshine. Winds will shift to come from the south, gusting up to 20 mph or so later in the day. Low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer, falling only into the upper 50s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three mild, partly to mostly sunny days. Highs will generally range from the upper 70s right along the coast to lower 80s for areas west and north of Houston. Will it feel humid? A bit. Dewpoints will be right around 60 degrees. So that’s moderately humid, but nothing like mid-summer or even early fall. Nighttime lows will generally fall into the mid-60s. Rain chances are low to non-existent until Friday night, at least.

Saturday and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend you’ll want to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days. Saturday should start out warm and somewhat humid, but at some point a front is going to advance toward the area. Because we’ll have several days of onshore flow this week there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. I suspect the approach of this front will therefore lead to a good chance of rain. Timing is suspect, but I think there will be about a 50 percent chance of showers on Saturday and Saturday night, with perhaps a bit lower odds on Sunday. Accumulations don’t look too great, with totals ranging from a few tenths of an inch of rain to one-half inch. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and perhaps 70 degrees on Sunday (depending on the timing of the front). There remains some question as to the strength of this front, but my guess is we’ll get a couple of nights with lows around 50 degrees out of it.

Next week

We are getting toward the part of the forecast that is usually pretty fuzzy. However there is decent agreement in the models about another (maybe stronger?) front later next week, and this should bring some more cooler weather and another healthy chance of rainfall. We’ll have more details for you in the coming days, but if we could pick up an inch of rainfall through next week, or so, that would do our soils some real good. A few people have asked about a Thanksgiving forecast, but I would be a turkey to try and predict something that is 17 days out.