Eric Berger

In brief: Following a splendid Memorial Day in Houston, we are going to see the brief return of potentially heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Note that these storms may hit during the morning commute. The weekend looks warmer, and mostly rain-free.

Look back at last week

Before we look ahead, I wanted to briefly review our rainfall totals last week, from Sunday morning to Sunday morning. Most areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 picked up 3 to 6 inches of rainfall whereas inland areas were more in line with 2 to 4 inches. For much of the region (excluding areas south of the region) the bulk of these rains came on Saturday, when there was flash flooding.

These rains were largely beneficial for most areas. As the Houston region enters the hottest part of the year, with the highest Sun angle, our soils are largely drought-free. It is a great position to be. You may also note on the map above that areas south of Houston, along Coastal Bend, also received healthy rainfall totals last week. This has had a beneficial impact on one of the two main reservoirs that provide water for Corpus Christi. Although Choke Canyon has largely been unimpacted, Lake Corpus Christi is now 14.7 percent full, an increase from 8.7 percent full a month ago. This will provide the region a little more time to sort out its severe water shortage issues.

Tuesday

If you enjoyed Memorial Day—and it ended up being a rather nice holiday for outdoor, sunny activities—today should be similar. High temperatures will push into the upper-80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at about 10 mph with slightly higher gusts. Rain chances are low, perhaps 10 to 20 percent. Rain chances increase tonight, especially after midnight.

Wednesday

An atmospheric disturbance will move into the region overnight on Tuesday from the west, and likely push an area of storms through the region early on Wednesday. At this point I think the best chance for widespread showers will occur between 4 am and noon on Wednesday in Houston. Flooding is possible, of course, but for most of the region accumulations look to be between 1 and 2 inches. This should be manageable, but definitely worth monitoring given that these showers and thunderstorms are likely to move through during the morning commute. Highs on Wednesday will likely top out at about 80 degrees, with lower rain chances likely during the afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday

We can expect some lingering showers on Thursday, but coverage and amounts should be significantly less than on Wednesday. Skies will turn partly sunny and highs likely will push back into the upper 80s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We probably will see high temperatures rise to about 90 degrees beginning on Friday, and lasting through the weekend. This is on par for this time of year. Skies look to be mostly sunny on Friday, with partly sunny conditions on Saturday and Sunday. With dewpoints in the low- to mid-70s we’re getting there in terms of summer-time humidity in Houston, but just know it can get worse than this. (And it will, hah). Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. Some rain chances return later on Sunday, although they look iffy to me at this point.

Next week

Rain chances rise to start next week, and there is some evidence that a weak front may approach Houston. Anyone betting on a cool front in June is probably a fool, so I’m offering no guarantees here. But there is a chance that some slightly cooler and drier air arrives later next week. If so, it would definitely be a bonus. We’ll see.

In brief: As the likelihood of widespread storms has subsided, we are ending our Stage 2 flood alert. The conditions that brought heavy rains on Saturday have largely passed. Have a great remainder of the Memorial Day weekend, everyone!

It’s Sunday morning in Houston, the radar is quiet, and temperatures are fairly pleasant for late May. After Saturday’s widespread storms and heavy rainfall, it’s a nice change. And I’m happy to report that, in contrast to the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the rest of it should remain pretty calm. Conditions should be calm enough, in fact, that we’re lifting our Stage 2 flood alert.

Both Sunday and Monday should be partly to mostly sunny. We are likely to remain in the lower 80s today, with temperatures rising to the mid- to upper-80s by Monday. And what of rain chances? They’re probably on the order of 20 or 30 percent each day, perhaps a little higher near the coast and a little lower further inland. The reason is that the impact of an upper-level system is diminishing. Bear in mind that even though each day could be mostly sunny, there still is the chance of a quick-moving shower or thunderstorm popping up.

Tuesday should bring more of the same, but by early Wednesday we are likely to see another disturbance move through. This could bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain during the middle of next week. But by then any recent rises on creeks and bayous should have subsided.

Unless the forecast changes significantly for Memorial Day, we are probably going to take the holiday off. Accordingly, we hope you have a great remainder of the weekend, and we’ll be back with a full post on Tuesday morning.

In brief: Strong showers and thunderstorms are moving through Houston on Saturday afternoon, creating some flash flooding. The good news is that this mess should exit the area over the next couple of hours. Until then be weather aware.

Hi everyone, just a quick update to note that the “afternoon” round of storms we advertised in this morning’s post is now moving through central Houston. This band of showers and thunderstorms is producing heavy rainfall, and we’re seeing some flash flooding consistent with the Stage 2 alert we have put into place for this weekend.

The good news is that these storms are progressing fairly well to the east-northeast, and should gradually clear the entire metro area by around sunset if not before. Accordingly if you have dinner reservations or other plans later this evening you should feel free to go out. Once these storms end we anticipate a quiet evening and overnight period.

As for Sunday, we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms (probably better chances closer to the coast) but nothing as organized as what we experienced today. Memorial Day probably will have less coverage still, with more sunshine. We will break this all down for you in an update on Sunday morning.

In brief: Storms are rumbling through Houston during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, and this is the first of a handful of disturbances we can expect this weekend. Rain chances are a bit lower on Sunday, and we are hopeful that by Memorial Day we’ll see a fair bit of sunshine.

Good morning. Like some of you, I imagine, I was awoken before 5 am by storms rumbling into the Houston area from the west. This pre-sunrise activity is the first of a series of disturbances expected to propagate across the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. We still have some uncertainty about the timing for heaviest rainfall, but I am increasingly hopeful that we will see improving conditions by Memorial Day. Thus, if you were hoping to have a pool day, or a beach day, or otherwise celebrate the holiday outdoors in hopes of a little sunshine, all is not lost.

But first, we have some storms to deal with.

The current area of showers and thunderstorms is producing fairly heavy rainfall, and there is also the threat of some severe weather, including small hail and damaging wind gusts. The period between now (5:45 am) and around 9 or 10 am this morning should be treated with caution due to the potential for severe weather as well as pockets of heavy rainfall (we’ve seen rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches).

So what happens after this round of storms? I think we’ll see a break in activity from the mid-morning to the early afternoon hours. But then, as the atmosphere has time to recharge and we experience daytime heating, another disturbance will approach from the southwest. This will likely spread into Houston during the afternoon or evening hours. Whether it is intense as the storms this morning is not entirely clear—the atmosphere may still be a bit worked over. Some of our high resolution modeling indicates these storms will be strongest along and south of Interstate 10.

We are likely to see more disturbances on Sunday, although timing them is difficult, and it’s not clear how strong they will be. Anyway, expect a healthy rain chance in the vicinity of 60 or 70 percent. By later on Sunday we may be able to lift our Stage 2 flood alert, which is indicative of the waning potential for street flooding and flash flooding.

In contrast to the first part of the holiday weekend, we now think there’s a decent chance of partly sunny (maybe mostly sunny) skies on Memorial Day, with rain chances at or below 50 percent. In other words, most of the day should be fine to celebrate outdoors. Highs will likely be in the vicinity of the mid-80s on Monday, so fairly warm but not in any meaningful way will it be hot.

If the storms this evening look to become fairly strong, we’ll be back with a short update this afternoon. If not, we’ll see you on Sunday morning.