Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the quietude in the Atlantic tropics, and when that could begin to change. Also, our heat continues for as far as the eye can see, although there are some slight rain chances out there.

A quick look at the Atlantic

Nearly a week after Tropical Storm Bertha moved into Texas the overall picture in the Atlantic tropics remains very quiet. It is possible that a weak system forms off the Eastern Seaboard of the United States next week, but it likely would be moving away from land. The Gulf and Caribbean remain very quiet, and this is due in part to rather high wind shear levels across these basins.

Overall, things look good for the next couple of weeks, which is about how long we can reasonably expect to forecast out. It will be about that time, August 10 or so, that historically the Atlantic tropics start to take off. This is the point in the season when tropical waves start to move off the West African coast into the Atlantic, and strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes as they propagate westward across the ocean in what is known as the “main development region.”

You can see this burst in activity in the above plot of “accumulated cyclone energy,” which starts to spike later in August and activity remains high into early October. This year (note the red line) activity is significantly below normal, just 34 percent of a typical total. That’s a great start, and to be clear we expect an overall fairly quiet season given a strengthening El Niño, but the bulk of this season lies ahead. We will need to get through August and most of September before giving an all clear for the year in Texas.

Wednesday

The high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 97 degrees on Tuesday, and that should be the region’s coolest day for awhile. Highs today will probably reach around 100 degrees, with plenty of humidity and mostly clear skies. Of (slight) note there is about a 10 percent chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms this afternoon due to a potential break in the capping inversion. Winds pick up out of the south later this afternoon. Lows tonight will be around 80, or just below.

Thursday through the weekend

Our hot weather continues. Expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees, or the low 100s, for most of the Houston region away from the coast. Near the Gulf waters, highs will be a few degrees cooler. The models continue to indicate a decent chance of rain on Saturday night or Sunday, perhaps 30 percent. Is this a mirage? We’ll see. But mostly we’re going to be sunny and hot.

Next week

For now, I’m leaning toward the “not much changes next week” scenario. Welcome to high summer, y’all.

In brief: In today’s post we talk about Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures, which are useful at this time of year to help differentiate “hot” weather from “extremely hot” weather you need to avoid being outdoors during. We’re going to see some of the latter this week.

WBGT, and what does it mean for me

There are many ways to talk about heat: high temperatures, the heat index, “extreme” heat warnings, and more. But the most practical (which also, I acknowledge, has the most confusing name) is something called Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures. It takes a lot of factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, Sun angle and cloud cover to determine the amount of heat stress. It is particularly helpful for determining whether outdoor exercise or work is safe. If you have kids in fall sports or marching band, these temperatures are often used to set practice times.

The confusion comes not just from the name (what the heck is a “wet bulb” anyway?) but also because there are other, similar names. For example, a dry-bulb temperature is the name for an air temperature measured by a standard thermometer in the shade. A wet-bulb temperature involves placing a wet cloth around a thermometer bulb, and it measures both temperature and humidity. Globe temperature measures radiant heat (i.e. sunlight and heat radiating from surfaces such as concrete).

All three of these are factored into a “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.” So yes, it’s a bit complicated, but WBGTs are the very best way of differentiating between “hot” temperatures and really hot, borderline-unsafe temperatures.

This week we have a sustained stretch of “extreme” heat in terms of WBGTs. We’ve certainly seen hotter, but each day this week from about 1 to 3 pm CT we will experience extreme or very high WBGT conditions. It’s the time of year to take heat warnings safely. We typically see them in July, August, or early September.

Tuesday through Saturday

There is no mystery with our upcoming weather. High temperatures will be about 100 degrees in Houston for the next couple of days, and then push into the low-100s during the Thursday through Saturday period. It will be our hottest weather of the year. Along with the heat we’ll have plenty of humidity, sunshine, and generally light winds that will gust up to about 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Nights will remain warm and sultry. And that’s pretty much it—for most of us this is pretty brutal weather.

Sunday and beyond

High pressure begins to retreat toward the end of this week, and that will open up the possibility that we see some slightly different weather by the end of this weekend, and during the first half of this week. Best case? Daily high temperatures fall back into the mid-90s, and we see some decent daily rain chances. Worst case? We more or less continue the conditions of this week, and keep on trucking with very hot days and full sunshine. We’ll have to see how things play out.

In brief: In today’s post we take stock of the good news, and the bad news about Houston’s weather so far this summer. Also, we look ahead to a blazing hot week. And we do mean blazing. Stay cool, y’all!

First, the good news

There are many ways of defining summer. Meteorologically, it lasts from June 1 through August 31. Practically, in Houston, it runs from mid-May through September. However what’s clear is that we are now a little more than half-way through summer. Plausibly, we are as little as six to eight weeks away from the first cool front of fall.

To date this summer has not been extraordinarily hot; rather we have been pretty much spot-on with normal temperatures for June and most of July. And finally, the greater Houston area (and much of the state of Texas) are drought free. This is often the season when droughts are typically blooming, but not this year. So all in all, so far this summer, we are doing pretty well.

Now, the bad news

I started this post with some positivity because, for most people, we are about to begin the grimmest time of year. August, the region’s hottest month, is days away. The next two weeks are, historically, the very warmest period for the city. And we are expected to have warmer than normal temperatures for at least the next week. So yeah, prepare to sweat.

The other thing is that we are nearing the height of hurricane season. For Texas, the peak lasts from mid-August through late September. So it is about time to buckle up. Crazily, the first two named storms of the season—Arthur and Bertha—both passed over the greater Houston area. Neither had super significant effects locally, but both were rainmakers for some parts of Texas and Louisiana. I have to tell you, we don’t want named storms hitting near us in August or September, when stronger storms are likely. Fortunately the next week or two, at least, things look quiet in the Gulf.

Finally, a word of thanks

I rely on a lot of people here at Space City Weather. We also have a great, long-term partner in Reliant who helps us keep the lights on. But most important of all is Matt Lanza, who stepped in last week to handle the site while I was on vacation, and wound up covering a low-end tropical storm. I take one week a year fully off from the site to recharge, and it happened to be last week. Thankfully we all survived and I’m back and in the saddle, ready for whatever the coming weeks will bring. Hopefully nothing of consequence!

Monday through Friday

This week is going to be downright hot. The reason? High pressure is in place, and at least through the work week it’s not going anywhere. For much of Houston that will mean high temperatures in the vicinity of 100 degrees, with overnight lows only falling to around 80 degrees. Coastal areas will see daytime highs a few degrees cooler. In terms of humidity, you guessed it, days and nights will be sticky. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances will be near zero. And that, my friends, is pretty much all there is to say about this week’s forecast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Is the high pressure system going to move away? Most of our best medium-range models indicate that there is a chance of change this weekend. Highs may drop a few degrees, and rain chances may rise to the 30 percent range (or higher). Next week also looks slightly cooler, but perhaps that’s only because the coming week looks so dang hot.

In brief: The Texas Hill Country was battered by heavy rain again this week, culminating in numerous flash flood emergencies this morning. Rain will gradually decrease and pull away tonight and tomorrow. In this post, originally published by The Eyewall on Thursday morning, we provide additional context.

Hill Country, again

On Tuesday and Wednesday it rained heavily in areas west of San Antonio. Overnight and this morning, it rained torrentially. As a result, there is ongoing severe flash flooding in the area, including a flash flood emergency for Uvalde, Kerrville, and the Guadalupe River downstream of Kerrville.

Unfortunately, there is additional heavy rain coming for Uvalde and probably Medina and Kerrville as well. This will move through before lunchtime, and it may deposit another 1 to 3 inches of rain before things settle down this afternoon. During the July 4, 2025 tragedy, the heaviest rainfall fell in the Guadalupe watershed upstream from Kerrville, near or just west of Ingram.

On the Guadalupe River downstream from Kerrville in Comfort, the river rose over 30 feet in a matter of hours.

The outcome this time around has some notable differences from July 4th of last year. For one, the river rose higher at Comfort, likely due to the amount of water falling slightly farther downstream from 2025. It also rose “slower.” A 30 foot rise in 3 to 4 hours is incredible. Keep in mind, however, the water in 2025 accomplished a similar feat in 2 hours or less. Not to say this was a “gentle” rise, but it did not have quite the force and suddenness of last year’s. We also had 2 days of flooding leading into this in the area, so it should have been much more on people’s radars.

Now, the heaviest rain for this whole event has fallen near and north of Uvalde, more in the Nueces River watershed and Upper Frio River. The Frio below Uvalde right now has been raging. We had one crest yesterday over 19 feet, another this morning over 17 feet, and likely a third one coming.

The amount of rain that has fallen is really remarkable. Gauge corrected estimates are around 27 to 28 inches in areas just north of Uvalde over the last 3 days.

All this water is going to flow into the Nueces River. If you’re looking for some silver lining in all this, at least some of this water should be captured in Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi, which would help further alleviate water supply issues in the Coastal Bend. Either way, the flooding right now is catastrophic near Uvalde and on the Guadalupe downstream from Kerrville. We don’t yet know the toll of this event, but the hope is that it should be less costly in human lives than 2025. Our thoughts are with those impacted areas at this time.

Going forward

Once the rain slows down this afternoon, we’ll get a break into evening in many impacted areas. The upper low that has been helping to drive the storminess in Texas is slowly backing toward New Mexico. This should lead to the focus of rain shifting west too.

While some isolated heavy downpours are possible once again near Kerrville and Uvalde, the heaviest rain tonight should fall near Ozona north into San Angelo. We’ll need to watch for flooding in those areas overnight, but the good news is that there has been far less preceding rainfall there like we saw in Uvalde and Kerrville the last few days. So hopefully the flooding issues tonight will be more standard flash flooding than this crazier stuff. But we’d strongly advise folks to take these rain forecasts seriously.