Eric Berger

In brief: Houston will see temperatures spike on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that may (very) briefly provide some drier air. The rest of the week looks warm and humid, with a chance of rain returning by the weekend.

Above average temperatures

As we have been discussing, Houston has been experiencing a warm spell in the middle of May. During the last five days, the average temperature (the daily high and low, divided by two) has been 9 or 10 degrees above normal. This weather has largely been driven by a high pressure system that brought sinking air and mostly sunny skies. This high pressure system has now shifted away, but for reasons discussed below we are still going to be quite warm this week, with one especially hot day (Tuesday) in the forecast.

Monday

Highs today should peak in the low 90s, and skies that are at least partly cloudy should help keep a lid on temperatures. In addition to high humidity, we will see fairly strong southerly winds, gusting up to 30 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will be muggy, perhaps only briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city of Houston. Coastal locations, of course, will see moderately cooler days and warmer nights.

Tuesday

A cool front will approach the area on Tuesday, and this will result in compressional heating as winds turn to come from the southwest. (Effectively, the front is compressing and heating air ahead of it as it advances). How hot we get on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover during the afternoon, but much of the region has a solid chance to get into the upper 90s. One other thing to watch for is the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms with the front. I think a capping inversion will be too much for the front to overcome, but it’s something we cannot rule out.

Drier air from this front should eventually move into the area over night, possibly reaching all the way down to the coast. Most of the area could see lows in the lower 70s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

The front, to the extent it impacts our area, will be briefly lived. But it should have some impact on Wednesday’s weather, bringing mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 90s, and somewhat lower humidity. But it will be washed away quickly, with humidity climbing by Wednesday night. Expect low temperatures in the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be a pair of mostly sunny, humid days with high temperatures in the low 90s for most, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. We should see southerly winds, but gusts probably won’t get above 15 or 20 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see ongoing, mostly sunny weather with high temperatures in the low 90s. However, with only modest high pressure in place I think there is perhaps a 10 percent chance of some showers on Saturday afternoon, and 30 percent on Sunday. So that will be something to watch for.

Next week

The overall pattern for next week looks slightly cooler (highs around 90 degrees, maybe) and wetter. We sure could use some rain, and the atmospheric setup would support it. But I certainly am not going to confidently forecast rain 7 to 10 days from now after an extended dry spell. However, we can at least have some hope for change.

In brief: This post covers our official summer outlook for Houston, forecasting temperature and precipitation for June, July, and August. We think this summer will be hot, of course. But we have some hope that it won’t be exceptionally hot like 2023 and 2024.

When is summer?

Let us begin this post by defining what summer is in Houston. If we go strictly by the equinox, summer begins on June 21 and will end on September 22. Some readers may think, well, actually it feels a lot like summer outside right now. However, a person on Threads has the right of it with this sentiment:

It can feel like summer in Houston from mid-May through mid-October. However, I don’t like that definition because parts of May can still feel spring-like (here’s hoping a front makes it next week) and we also can start to have some hope for real cool fronts starting in mid-September. Therefore, we prefer the meteorological definition of summer in Houston: June, July, and August. And since we’re two weeks from June 1, let’s get to the outlook.

Temperatures

Let me tell you, the presence of a fairly persistent ridge in mid-May, and temperatures solidly in the mid-90s, does not give Matt and I the warm and fuzzies about the upcoming summer. It engenders some dread. However, perhaps all is not lost.

An often important player, El Niño or La Niña, is unlikely to be a factor this summer. We generally expect neutral conditions to persist through August. For this reason we can look at trends over the last several years, as well as statistical modeling, to get an idea of what to expect for the upcoming summer.

The last few years, especially 2023 and 2024, have seen exceptional heat in Houston. We have set all kinds of records in daytime and especially nighttime temperatures. That trend, in concert with this month’s early onset of temperatures in the mid-90s (we have set multiple high temperature records this week) is very concerning. However, when we look at the seasonal modeling, the forecast is for near-normal temperatures in June, July, and August.

So what to make of all of this? I like the solution from NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook (shown above), which predicts a likelihood of above normal temperatures this summer. However we can have some hope, I think, that this summer won’t be frying-pan hot like the last two years.

Precipitation

I’m going to throw my hands up in the air on this one. The seasonal modeling isn’t much help here (some models are very dry, and some less so). As is often the case, whether we see a drought this summer will come down to a couple of factors. The first is high pressure, if we get persistent systems that set up for weeks at a time, we can pretty quickly slip into drought conditions during the hot summer months (the region is doing mostly fine now). And secondly, will we see low pressure systems, depressions, or tropical storms and hurricanes from the Gulf? We certainly don’t want the latter two, but often times the only way to get meaningful rain in July and August is from tropical lows.

NOAA, for what its worth, is calling for near normal, to slightly above normal precipitation this summer in Houston. We shall see, I guess. The trick in Houston in the summer is to somehow get some rain, but not a ton of rain, all at once. Hard to do in August, I’m afraid.

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In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.

Heat records fall

As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:

• The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
• Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
• This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year

In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.

Thursday

If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.

Next week

The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.

In brief: After Houston set heat records on Tuesday, we should see more of the same today and Thursday. The overall pattern moderates slightly this weekend, but we are looking at mostly sunny and hot weather at least into next week.

Record watch

Houston broke its high temperature record on Tuesday, with the mercury reaching 95 degrees. This topped the record of 94 degrees, set in 1907. The city will almost certainly break high temperature records today (93 degrees, set in 2018) and on Thursday (94 degrees, 2018). We then will come close through the weekend, and my tie or break additional records.

This is not particularly where one wants to be in the middle of May, with at least four months of summer ahead. But here we are. Matt and I are working on a summer preview, which we will publish in a couple of days. I don’t want to spoil anything, but I don’t think there will be any surprises. This high pressure pattern currently in place, known as an Omega block, can be fairly persistent. And seeing one at this time of year is not a good sign.

Wednesday and Thursday

The setup favors maximum heating today and Thursday, so we can expect the urban core of Houston to hit at least the mid-90s. Areas north and west of the city will be hotter, and we can’t entirely rule out a few isolated readings of 100 degrees. Areas closer to the coast should be a bit cooler, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Conditions will be breezy, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny during the daytime, with some clouds building in during the evenings and overnight. Lows will only drop into the mid- or upper-70s, so it will definitely feel muggy outside.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Daily high temperatures may back off a couple of degrees this weekend, but it is still going to be sizzling for mid-May, feeling more like late June or July out there. It’s also worth noting that we are about one month away from the Sun reaching its highest point in the sky, so your skin will burn quickly. Please take precautions for prolonged Sun exposure. And we are going to see a lot of sunshine this weekend, with rain chances hovering around zero.

Next week

When we get in pressure patterns like this, it becomes a waiting game to see when it will break. At this point, I think the earliest likelihood of this is next Wednesday or Thursday, when rain chances and somewhat more moderate temperatures may return. But there certainly are no guarantees.