Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss widespread rain chances today, especially for coastal areas. After this Houston will remain in a rather warm, late-summer pattern for most of next week. So it goes in September in Houston, my friends.

The day the world changed

We begin today with a non-weather topic. I am speaking, of course, of September 11, a day of unprecedented and horrific terrorist attacks on the United States of America that occurred 25 years ago today. At my age today, the attacks occurred at just about the half point of my life, and it really does represent a before-and-after moment. I distinctly remember the surprise and shock of those initial attacks, the uncertainty and fear, the dawning realization of what it all meant, and the heartbreaking losses suffered by so many. Undoubtedly all readers here in their mid-30s and older have their own vivid memories.

Looking back on those attacks with hindsight, a few things stand out. As a weather nerd, it is striking to me how exceptionally clear the skies over the northeastern United States were that day; how calm the winds. This lead to no weather delays or diversions, allowing the hijackers to largely stick to their schedules, and visually navigate toward prominent landmarks. And for those of us watching the horror unfold, the black smoke from the World Trade Center towers billowed away against azure blue skies.

That day was in many ways a defining moment for America. The 21st century may have begun on January 1, 2001, according to the Gregorian calendar. But in reality, the 20th century ended on 9/11, and we entered a new, uncertain century that is now one-quarter done. America found a way to largely come together after the tragedy of 9/11, unifying in the wake of tragedy. It is my hope that after a wrenching 25 years, which have increasingly set us against one another, we can do so again. I like my States united, rather than divided.

Friday

Alright, back to weather. The atmosphere above the Houston region remains unsettled, and there is plenty of moisture available, especially near the coast. This is likely to lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning, and into the early afternoon hours, for areas along and south of Interstate 10. Coverage will be less for inland areas, but we cannot rule out some showers there as well. In terms of accumulations, some of these storms will be capable of dropping 1 to 2 inches of rain, while most areas see less. With partly cloudy skies today, I think highs will remain in the vicinity of the lower 90s. Most of our high-resolution guidance indicates that showers should clear out by later this afternoon or early evening, which should be good for Friday Night Lights.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to remain in a similar pattern this weekend, although the background support in the atmosphere for precipitation will be a little bit lower. For the forecast, that translates into less fuel for widespread showers and thunderstorms—so I’ll go with daily rain chances on the order of 40 percent rather than 60 percent. Coastal areas will again be slightly more favored than inland ones. High temperatures will likely be in the low- to mid-90s for each day, with skies partly to mostly sunny. So for Texans tailgaters it will be pretty hot, with a decent chance of a passing shower.

Next week

Expect a late-summer pattern to persist for most of next week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms likely in the vicinity of 30 percent a day, give or take. Overnight lows remain stubbornly warm and humid, only briefly falling into the upper 70s. We’re still on the lookout for some kind of a weak front next weekend, but the chances of something making it all the way to Houston remain hit or miss. Hopefully we’ll get some clarity by the time of Monday’s post. Until such time have a wonderful weekend, Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we go a little deeper into the possibility of a cold front arriving by next weekend. Also, we discuss rain chances over the next several days, which remain healthy for most of the region.

Cold front or nah?

Houston’s first fall front typically arrives during the second half of September—not always, but often. Said front is almost always weak in the sense that it only brings very modest temperature relief and a relatively short period of modestly drier air. But psychologically it’s a huge deal, because it is a promise of what is to come, namely fall.

Because the first fronts are usually weak, they are difficult to predict. We end up in a will it, or won’t it make it scenario up until a couple of days before the front’s arrival. Some of our better models are continuing to indicate the possibility of the season’s first front arriving in about nine or 10 days time. That’s more or less at the edge of what is reliably predictable, so there is some double uncertainty about this front, both in the sense of it is difficult to forecast accurately, and it remains relatively far into the future from a forecast standpoint.

So, real talk, I think there’s a pretty decent chance a front makes it in by around September 19 or 20. I would not swear to anything like that, and realistically the chance is probably somewhere in the vicinity of 40 or 50 percent. We are unlikely to really have high confidence in this forecast until at least next Monday or so.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will see similar conditions, which is to say high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees and partly sunny skies. Along with daytime heating we will scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. While most of these should move through fairly quickly, some of the stronger cells could produce 1 to 2 inches over smaller areas. Overall chances are probably higher closer to the coast than further inland. Winds will generally be light, from the south. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m not sure a whole lot changes over the weekend. Temperatures will be similar. If I squint, it’s possible that Sunday has a little more sunshine and lower rain chances, but some showers are definitely still possible. So if you’re tailgating at Reliant Stadium—which is a great name for a football stadium by the way, glad it’s back—you can expect mostly sunny conditions but we unfortunately cannot rule out the possibility of some showers moving through, even if overall chances are fairly low.

Next week

Temperatures don’t change much next week as I expect the region to be in the vicinity of the lower 90s. Rain chances may drop back to 20 or 30 percent daily, but I don’t think they’re going away entirely. The big question, toward the end of next week, is whether a weak front does make it. This would probably bring a brief bump in shower chances. Obviously we’ll be keeping a close eye on this to see what happens and when we know, you’ll know.

In brief: For the next week or 10 days there won’t be much change in our weather, with fairly warm days, and scattered rain chances. This is basically the rule for weather in Houston during the first half of the month.

September doing September things

Here’s what we know about September weather in Houston: It often disappoints. Temperatures this month are typically a bit cooler than August, but not dramatically so. Days are a bit shorter. And we’re basically in what seems like an interminable doctor’s waiting room hoping to hear ‘cold front’ called out by a nurse. So it will go over the next week or 10 days, with highs generally ranging from 90 degrees at the coast to 95 degrees inland, partly to mostly sunny skies, and scattered afternoon showers. And we will remain in wait for a cold front. Our first chance does come about 10 days from now, but it’s not sure thing by any means.

Wednesday

Our overall pattern is such that we’re not quite governed by high pressure, which lies to our west and east; but we’re also not exactly seeing disturbances fly by left and right. So we end up with a chance of showers each day, perhaps on the order of 30 to 50 percent. For areas south of Interstate 10 and closer to the coast, that chance is closer to the higher end, and for inland areas, it is closer to the lower end. Winds will be light for most of the day, but picking up to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon. Nights remain stubbornly warm, in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

Not much changes each day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the daytime. Temperatures for most locations will continue to top out in the lower 90s. In terms of rainfall accumulations through Friday, most of the area will likely pick up 0.25 to 1 inch, but there will likely be some bigger lottery winners.

Saturday and Sunday

Overall rain chances may drop back to around 30 percent this weekend, but there still will be enough weakness between high pressure systems to allow some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs remain in the lower half of the 90s for most of the area. You don’t have to ask about humidity, do you?

Next week

For much of next week, there’s just not a whole lot of change. Perhaps high pressure becomes a little more settled over us, in which case the likelihood of rain goes down a little bit. However, I still foresee the sea breeze producing at least some isolated to scattered activity each day. All of which brings us to the chances for a cool front late next week. I’m a little less optimistic today. Yesterday I probably would have put our odds at about 40 percent of seeing a front. Today I’m at 30 percent, which to be fair is not zero. But it’s also not a slam dunk. Welcome to the waiting room, y’all.

In brief: There’s a lot going on! In today’s post we discuss the lack of Atlantic hurricanes to date, and why that is so significant. Also, we look ahead to a week with some rather decent rain chances. And finally, is the season’s first cool front possible late next week?

No hurry for hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane database stretches all the way back to 1851, but in years before satellite coverage it is likely some storms that remained at sea were missed. In 1944 aircraft reconnaissance of the Atlantic began, and in the 1966 we had the beginning of the satellite era to detect storms across the entire basin. So there are a lot of ways to slice and dice the Atlantic hurricane record.

Nevertheless this season does feel significant. While the upper Texas coast has had its share of tropical storms this season, most recently with Edouard, no Atlantic hurricanes have yet to form. (Edouard’s maximum sustained winds were measured at 60 mph, below the 74-mph threshold for a hurricane). Today is September 8, more than a month after the time when the first Atlantic hurricane typically forms.

Since the onset of aircraft reconnaissance in 1944, the latest date for the formation of the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin has been September 11, with Gustav in 2002; and Humberto in 2013. I am here to tell you, we are not going to see an Atlantic hurricane this year by or before September 11.

If we go back all the way to 1851, in which it is more probable that some storms were missed, we can push the “latest Atlantic hurricane” date back a little further. That came in 1941, with “Hurricane Two” forming on September 17 in the Gulf, and which later came ashore near Matagorda Bay with powerful 125 winds. Such a storm would be very destructive to the Houston region were it to develop today.

Anything, of course, can still happen in the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. But for now El Niño has the main development region on lockdown, and to add insult a major plume of Saharan dust is moving off Africa this week, which will also suppress development. Given this pattern, anything that does form in the next 10 says it will likely be home-grown, in the sense that it forms fairly near the United States.

Anyway, I’m not saying the Atlantic won’t see a hurricane before September 17, but I am saying it is unlikely. I’ll go ahead and knock on some wood just in case.

Tuesday

Houston’s high temperature reached 98 degrees on Monday, and I think we’re going to see another fairly hot day today. Whether we can get back into the upper 90s will depend on rain chances. After calm conditions on Labor Day we’ll see better odds of rain for the rest of this week. As for today, I anticipate storms forming offshore and then moving inland early this afternoon, with daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 40 percent, but with the amount of moisture available where the showers and thunderstorms hit today they could quickly drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Each of these days should have partly sunny skies, with a healthy chance (~50 percent, daily) of showers and thunderstorms. Given the atmospheric moisture levels, locally heavy rainfall is possible, although flooding is not a major concern for now. With the potential for showers I think our daily high temperatures will take a step backward, probably into the low- to mid-90s for most of the region. Overall rain accumulations this week should be higher for areas south of I-10 than north of the freeway, but pretty much everyone should see some precipitation at some point. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather with highs generally in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances may retreat a little bit, but I still think there will be a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers, primarily during the afternoon hours.

Next week

This pattern should, more or less, continue next week. The big question is whether we see our first front later next week, or over the weekend of September 18 to 20. There are a couple of caveats here. The front’s arrival is no sure thing, it’s probably about a 50-50 deal at this point and we often end up disappointed at this time of year. And secondly, it probably will not bring too much relief in terms of temperatures. But I don’t care. For the first time in months we can legitimately start to look for some fall-like weather, and I am here for it.