Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we explain why June in Houston is about to turn sunnier and a bit hotter, and look ahead to conditions this weekend. Also, did you know there was a fairly large earthquake in the Gulf on Monday?

June so far

This month, to date, has seen somewhat cooler than normal weather, especially during the day. More than half of the days have not see high temperatures rise above the mid-80s in the city, and every June day so far has recorded at least a trace of rain in most parts of the area. This has kept conditions feeling slightly spring-like rather that more summer-like.

But beginning today, and probably well into the weekend, we are going to see more typical June-like weather with more daytime sunshine and somewhat hotter temperatures. Each day going forward, away from the coast, is likely to see highs ranging from 90 degrees to the lower 90s, with a smattering of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. In short, June weather is going to be doing what June weather does in Houston.

Tuesday

Although atmospheric moisture levels remain high, increasing high pressure will influence our weather in the days to come. It won’t entirely clamp down on rain chances, but it should diminish coverage to fairly isolated to scattered showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. Overall rain chances are likely about 20 percent. Highs will reach about 90 degrees this afternoon for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light from the south before increasing a little this afternoon. Skies should be clear tonight, but lows likely will only briefly reach down into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not a whole lot changes for the rest of the work week. Highs may tick up a degree or two, but inland areas should still be in the vicinity of the low 90s, with plenty of humidity and sunshine. We will continue to see a low-end chance of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours, driven by the sea breeze. Nights will remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend, at least to start, is likely to see a continuation of this warm pattern, with scattered to isolated showers during the afternoon. However most of our model guidance indicates that high pressure may back off somewhat by next Sunday or Monday. For now I expect mostly sunny conditions on Sunday with scattered rain showers, but that could change to slightly more rain coverage depending on the timing of high pressure easing away. Temperatures will continue to be warm and humid, regardless.

Next week

At this vantage point, at least, the first half of next week appears likely to bring better rain chances. Whether this is 40 percent each day or 70 percent is something that we’ll have to iron out as we get closer. It’s June so you can expect continued muggy weather regardless.

Eye on the Gulf

Hah, I bet you thought I was going to talk about the tropics here, didn’t you? Well, you would be wrong. Things look pretty quiet over the next 10 days in the Atlantic, with only the very slight possibility of some minor mischief in the Bay of Campeche. What I actually wanted to mention is that there was an earthquake in the Gulf on Monday. At M6.1 it was fairly strong, and by some measures it may be the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the Gulf. It occurred off the northwest tip of Cuba, and was felt as far away as in Florida. I don’t think it’s a harbinger of anything ominous, but the Earthquake Insights newsletter has some interesting speculation about its cause.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the amount of rainfall Houston received over the last two months, and show how it has completely wiped a drought off the map. Also, we look ahead to a sunnier weak with considerably less rain. Also, the World Cup starts here this weekend!

April and May showers brought an end to the drought

Over the course of the last two months, and culminating on Saturday, the greater Houston region has received beneficial rains. Although the precipitation put a damper on some outdoor activities, we managed to get a large amount of rainfall without too many serious flooding issues. That’s never easy in Houston. How much rain? Since the first week of April most of the region has received 150 to 200 percent of normal rainfall totals, which translates to 12 to 18 inches of rain for most.

Perhaps you don’t recall, but following a dry-ish winter and start to spring, the entire metro area (not to mention surrounding counties) had fallen into a drought. This ranged from a “moderate” drought in central Harris County to an ” extreme” drought for most of our surrounding counties. This boded ill as Houston faced the warmer months of late spring and summer. But then, of course, the last two months happened. You can use the slider below to compare our drought situation at the end of March to where we were at the beginning of June.

Now, I’m given to understand that not everyone likes rain. In fact, after our most recent outbreak of showers I’ve seen some people saying they’re sick and tired of the rain, and when is it going to get sunny already? Well, if that’s you, read on.

Monday

Clouds will linger today, along with a slight chance of showers, before high pressure settles in to assert control over our weather for much of the rest of the week. Accordingly high temperatures may only reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees later today. We are seeing a few light showers near thew coast this morning, and there’s the potential for some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for areas north of I-10. But overall rain chances are probably only about 20 percent. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with gusts this afternoon from 15 to 20 mph. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday through Friday

This week will bring fairly similar conditions through the forecast period, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s, and overnight lows in the upper 70s to only around 80 degrees right along the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny each day, with a warm southerly flow. Winds will be a bit gusty, from the south. As for rain chances, they’re not zero, but on a daily basis they’re not much higher than 10 or 20 percent. This week really will feel summer-like for Houston, so buckle up.

Saturday and Sunday

Houston’s weather will remain warm and humid this weekend, and we may see highs tip up a little bit further, generally topping out in the low- to mid-90s. It appears as though high pressure may back off a little bit, allowing for maybe a 20 percent chance of showers on Saturday, and perhaps a 30 or 40 percent likelihood on Sunday with a few more clouds. We shall see.

Speaking of this weekend, soccer (futbol) fans will well know that the first World Cup game in Houston comes on Sunday, June 14, when Germany faces Curaçao (a country of 155,000 people—imagine League City taking on Germany in soccer). Anyway, Matt has written a special weather post for World Cup visitors that we’re going to be publishing later this morning, so be sure and share that with anyone you know coming in from out of town. The games are indoors at Reliant Stadium, of course, but the weather for festivities before and after Sunday’s game looks fairly typical for mid-June.

Next week

At some point early next week, perhaps later on Sunday or Monday, we are likely to see somewhat better rain chances return to the region. But since this is a week or so out, I don’t have great confidence in the forecast.

In brief: Due to wet soils and the potential for slow moving storms, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for the Houston region through Saturday evening. Please be weather aware and mindful of the potential for high water on roads.

Good morning! We hope everyone’s weekend is off to a good start. Looking at the radar at about 8:30 am CT, things are largely quiet with the exception of a few showers over Galveston Island. However with a moisture-laden atmosphere, we expect to see the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this morning and lasting through the afternoon hours.

To be clear, rivers, creeks, and bayous within the Houston metro area are all within their banks. However for much of the region, particularly central Houston, our grounds are saturated such that any additional rainfall today will quickly run into streets. Therefore we are likely to see street flooding develop more quickly than normal.

In terms of rainfall, for most of Houston, things will be just fine later today. However atmospheric conditions are supportive of heavy rainfall, and today we expect some storm motions to be slow. Therefore whereas most of the region may see a few tenths of an inch of rainfall, parts of the area may see 3 or more inches. The best chances for heavy rainfall today appear to be in Harris County, but the suburbs are also at risk.

Given all of this, we think there is a decent chance of some street flooding (i.e. low-lying roads, some feeder roads, etc.) today where rains are heaviest. Please be weather aware this afternoon and take more time during rain storms. Conditions should dry out overnight, but some additional storms are possible on Sunday, albeit not to the extent we think the Houston region will experience today.

In brief: We discuss the high levels of atmospheric moisture in today’s post, and explain how widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday. Some storms may persist into the weekend, but next week looks likely to be hotter and drier.

Plentiful atmospheric moisture

Atmospheric moisture continues to surge in from the Gulf of Mexico, and in the absence of high pressure this is allowing for ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the region. We measure atmospheric moisture levels by “precipitable water” which basically means if you took a column of atmosphere from the surface all the way to outer space, how much water is there? Generally speaking 2 inches, or more, is very favorable for rainfall. This morning we are seeing 2 to 2.25 inches across much of the region, and levels will remain high for several days more.

We are not too concerned about flooding because the storms remain fairly progressive, in that they are moving through with a decent pace, and local stream and floodways continue to drain well. Nevertheless we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

Thursday

We are likely to see widespread showers and thunderstorms today, with highly variable accumulations from low tenths of an inch to perhaps some locations seeing as much as 2 inches. This will help moderate high temperatures this afternoon. Areas with clouds and rains will likely top out in the low- to mid-80s, whereas areas that see sunshine for a couple of hours this afternoon may push 90 degrees. Some rain chances will continue overnight, with lows falling into the mid-70s.

Friday

This is likely to be a similar day to Thursday, with the likelihood of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. It’s possible that we see a little more sunshine on Friday afternoon, in which case high temperatures for most locations will reach the upper 80s. We will continue to see plenty of humidity and warm nights.

Saturday and Sunday

So what of the weekend? What of it, indeed. I think we’ll see diminution in coverage by showers and thunderstorms, but most of our available guidance indicates we’ll still see some activity. In addition, the precipitable water levels discussed above will remain fairly healthy. Accordingly I expect about a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms each day—but given some lingering uncertainty we may still need to adjust this forecast. Highs on both days should be around 90 degrees, with plenty of humidity. It certainly won’t rain all day every day.

Next weekend

It looks like high pressure may try to encroach from the east-southeast next week, and if it does this should lead to sunnier weather, highs in the low-90s, and rain chances falling into the 10 to 20 percent range for much of next week. That’s what things look like today, anyway. As always, we’ll have to see.