Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses the possibility of thunderstorms with a front on Friday night, folllowed by a cooldown that will stick around for awhile. Winter, it seems, really might be here. Also, start line conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best I can recall.

Storms possible Friday night?

Houston’s weather has been mostly calm for awhile now, beyond the very warm conditions we have experienced since early December. However there is a slight chance of some severe weather on Friday night as a fairly robust cold front passes through. We will have a decent amount of shear available, but I just don’t think the overall background conditions will favor widespread, severe weather. So yes, some scattered thunderstorms are likely on Friday night (perhaps around midnight in central Houston), but I don’t expect much more than that.

Thursday

We’re experiencing less fog this morning across the region, and that’s largely due to more pronounced southerly winds. They’re currently blowing at 10 to 15 mph, and we may see some stronger gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but since the air mass moving in from the south will be warm and muggy, I still expect some parts of our area to hit 80 degrees. A few scattered, and light showers will also be possible today. Lows tonight will be very warm for January, in the upper 60s.

Friday

Rain chances improve on Friday, likely to about 60 percent for most locations. We will probably see scattered showers during the daytime. It is possible that a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will develop later on Friday evening, and pass through Houston during the overnight hours. We’ll see. Regardless, temperatures on Friday will be warm and muggy, likely pushing 80 degrees. By Saturday morning we should be in the mid-50s, with much drier air moving in.

Saturday

This will be a breezy, and much cooler day with temperatures reaching only about 60 degrees during the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy as well, adding to the chill feeling. A chance of showers may linger during the morning hours. Gusty winds from the north may reach 25 mph, or perhaps even a bit higher, before calming some Saturday night. Lows will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

I was chatting yesterday with a friend and fellow runner, and we agreed that conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best they’ve been in memory. Start-line temperatures will be in the 40s, with a modest northerly wind (probably 10 mph). Humidity will be very low, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain should not be a factor. And temperatures by late morning likely will still only be in the 50s. So now is the time to go for those personal records!

Anyway, for non-runners, we can expect highs by Sunday afternoon to reach about 60 degrees. Sunday night will be quite cold, with lows in Houston dropping to 40 degrees, with mid- to upper-30s for outlying areas. Far inland locations, such as College Station, Huntsville, and elsewhere may see a light freeze.

Next week

Winter should stick around through next week, with highs mostly in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. We may see some rain chances on Tuesday or Wednesday as a reinforcing front moves through, and then again next weekend. The details, as always, are fuzzy at such a distance.

In brief: In today’s post we note Tuesday’s record high temperature, and the potential for more today. We also discuss the possibility of thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night as a front pushes into the area. Following this front winter should stick around for awhile.

Record high update

Houston has now set two record highs in 2026. On January 2, the high of 84 degrees broke the old record of 81 degrees, set in 1965 and 2000. And yesterday, January 6, the high of 82 degrees broke the previous mark of 80 degrees set in 1956 and 1989. Today will be close, with a forecast high about on par with the record of 81 degrees, set back in 2023.

Wednesday

We are once again seeing fog this morning, as dewpoints and temperatures have both fallen into the mid-60s. These soupy conditions will be with us into Friday before a front pushes through. After the fog clears we should have mostly sunny skies later today with highs around 80 degrees. Winds will be light, generally from the southwest. Lows tonight will again only drop into the 60s, with mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

This will be a cloudy and humid day, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for most locations. There will be a couple things of note. First of all winds will surge from the south in response to a nearby front, gusting up to 25 or perhaps even 30 mph. These winds will be highest on Thursday afternoon. We also will have a slight chance, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, of light rain during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thursday night will be warm and muggy again.

Friday and Friday night

We can’t say precisely what will happen Friday night, but generally I expect a warm and humid day, similar to Thursday with mostly cloudy skies. However, rain chances will be higher on Friday than Thursday, with scattered mostly light to moderate showers. There is also a chance for severe weather, primarily in the form of thunderstorms. This is most likely to occur between late evening on Friday and sunrise on Saturday, as the front itself moves into the Houston region. This is when we could see some briefly heavier rainfall. Most of our modeling is all over the place, but some locations could pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain whereas other locations see hundredths of an inch. We all need some rain, so good luck everyone.

Saturday

This will be mostly cloudy and cooler day, with a few showers possibly lingering during the morning hours. Temperatures at midnight will likely be in the 60s for most locations, falling to the 50s at sunrise and then staying there throughout the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy with modestly gusty northerly winds, perhaps up to 25 mph or so before ebbing during the late afternoon or early evening.

Sunday

Sunday morning will be cold. Start line temperatures at the Houston Marathon should be in the mid-40s, with dry air and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts. Rain chances are basically zero. Highs will likely climb into the upper 50s for most locations on Sunday afternoon. Sunday night will be chilly, with lows falling to around 40 degrees for most of Houston, with cooler conditions still for inland areas. A freeze is very unlikely, however.

Next week

Houston will feel like winter next week with highs generally in the 60s and lows mostly in the low- to mid-40s for much of the week. Skies should be partly sunny most days, with low rain chances. This pattern should prevail through the middle of the month.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the potential for setting daily high temperature records this week ahead of a front on Friday. There also will be some rain shower chances on Thursday and Friday. The weekend and next week still look much cooler, with near ideal conditions for the Houston Marathon on Sunday.

Heat records

Houston’s high temperature reached 79 degrees on Monday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, marking the beginning of a warmer period that will persist into Friday. The next four days all have a chance to set record highs, depending on the timing of a front on Friday. Here are the forecast highs for each day at Bush, along with the record high.

• Tuesday: 81 degrees (80 degrees, 1989)
• Wednesday: 81 degrees (81 degrees, 2023)
• Thursday: 79 degrees (79 degrees, 2019)
• Friday: 76 degrees (80 degrees, 1974)

By Friday a strong front will sweep into the area, dropping temperatures by about 20 degrees, and returning us to near normal conditions for early January. Although I know plenty of our readers like a warmer winter, it simply is not normal to have a stretch of 80-degree days in January, which is our coldest month of the year.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As dewpoints have risen and winds decreased, we are once again seeing the return of foggy conditions this morning. Such fog will be possible during nights and mornings from now through Friday morning. Dewpoints this morning are in the mid-60s, and that is where they will stay until the front arrives, so we are going to see fairly muggy conditions.

Highs today and Wednesday will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, perhaps a little warmer for inland areas, and a little cooler right along the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny during the daytime. Winds generally will be from the south, occasionally gusting up to 15 mph or so. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-60s for most of the region.

Thursday

As an upper-level disturbance approaches, we could see some light, scattered showers on Thursday. But for the most part I think we’ll just see mostly cloudy skies. This could shave a couple of degrees of daytime highs, but it will still feel warm and humid outside. Thursday night will again be warm and humid as well, with a chance of fog developing.

Friday

At some point on Friday, perhaps between sunrise and around noon, a cold front will drop down from the northwest. We should have a better handle on the details in the next day or so, but it appears possible that a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. However, at this time I don’t think we are looking at anything particularly severe, and in terms of accumulations I doubt most locations see more than a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. But we’ll see. Daytime temperatures will depend on the timing of the front, but I suspect we’ll drop into the 60s during the afternoon, with lows Friday night falling to around 50 degrees, or lower.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a slight chance of showers on Saturday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will likely top out at around 60 degrees, with overnight lows in the 40 to 45 degree range. Winds will be fairly brisk from the north on Saturday, perhaps up to 20 or 25 mph. However I expect these to die down a bit by Sunday morning (for the start of the Houston Marathon). Start-line temperatures in Houston will likely be in the 40 to 45 degree range, so chilly with a bit of a northerly breeze, but not outright cold, especially for long runs.

Next week

Most of next week looks to see near-normal conditions, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. We may see some additional showers in the Tuesday timeframe. Temperatures could warm up a bit toward the following weekend, but that will depend on the timing of the next front.

In brief: In this morning’s post we dig into our region’s very warm start to winter, which will continue this week. We probably will set more record highs. The post then explains why this is probably not the end of winter.

Who killed Jack Frost?

The month of December ended up 4.0 degrees above normal, and so far January is running much higher than what we typically experience at this time of year. We’ve already set one record high temperature this year (84 degrees, on Friday). This week will be no different, with record highs on Tuesday (80 degrees), Wednesday (81 degrees) and Thursday (79 degrees) all in play. Perhaps Friday as well, we will see.

By that point we will be nearly one half of the way into climatological winter, which spans from December through February. So is it just going to be super-warm weather all the way? I don’t think so. At the risk of being wrong (a hazard of the job!) I think that after a strong-ish front arrives late Friday or early Saturday of this week, we will fall into a cooler pattern for awhile. By this I mean days in the 60s and nights in the 40s. There are some hints of perhaps even colder weather toward the end of January, but who knows, really.

The bottom line is that we still have nearly eight weeks until March 1, and a lot can happen weather wise. So yes, this week is going to be unseasonably warm, just like a lot of December. But after that? We shall see.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have fallen to about 50 degrees across the metro area, which is the coldest we are going to get until at least next Saturday, but still warmer than is typical for January. Mostly cloudy skies this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine this afternoon, and this will allow high temperatures to push into the upper 70s for most locations. Winds will shift to come from the south over the course of the day. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These look to be the warmest days of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. One sobering note is that our all-time record high temperature for both the month of December and January is 85 degrees. That is potentially in play on Wednesday. With higher dewpoints (and humidity) we may also see some patchy fog on most mornings this week, including these days. Lows will again be in the 60s.

Thursday and Friday

A disturbance will precede the passage of a cold front late this week, and this will lead to the potential for some light showers on Thursday and Friday. I know we need rain, but unfortunately this frontal passage is unlikely to deliver on that score. Both of these days will have about a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain, but accumulations look slight. Daily highs will probably be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with increased cloud cover. There will be plenty of humidity. That should change some time on Friday night as a robust front sweeps through.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks decidedly cooler. I think highs on both days will reach the lower 60s, but this will depend on the amount of sunshine after the front. I think Saturday will see a fair amount, but Sunday could be partly cloudy, at least. I did a deeper dive yesterday into conditions for the Houston Marathon on Sunday, January 11, and that forecast more or less holds. If anything we’ve trended a bit cooler, with start line temperatures edging toward the lower 40s. Rain chances are low to non-existent, and my expectation is for fairly light winds. So all in all, pretty ideal for a long run.

Next week

We may slowly warm up some later next week, but we are still likely to remain in the 60s on most days, with drier air and cool, if not cold nights. Unfortunately I don’t see any real rainmakers in the next 10 to 15 days.