Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the pattern that will bring slightly cooler weather and improved rain chances over the several days. Monday continues to look like the day when the region will see its most widespread rainfall, but even then many will probably be disappointed. Major heat looms on the horizon.

Quick August status update

We are now 16 percent of the way through August, if you’re keeping track. And I am. The good news is that we are going to see a bit of a break in temperatures over the weekend, and possibly even some scattered rain showers as high pressure relents a little bit. The bad news is that the latter half of next week (and beyond?) still appears likely to see the return of a stout high, and a period of very warm temperatures.

Thursday

This will be another day that in some ways will similar to what we’ve experienced so far this week: sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-90s for most inland areas. Coastal locations will see daytime temperatures that are a few degrees lower, but it’s going to be hot and humid everywhere. However, one change is that conditions are a little more favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Most of us probably won’t see any rain, but localized downpours may produce 1 inch or more. These showers are most likely to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours, with peak heating.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs over the weekend will be a few degrees lower, perhaps in the mid-90s for most of Houston. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy. We are likely to see mostly sunny skies most of the time, but each day will likely have a roughly 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. These will be hit or miss, again, so expect the potential for some localized downpours.

Monday

This will probably be the “coolest” day of the period, with partly cloudy skies and highs perhaps only reaching the lower 90s for most locations. With high pressure likely at its weakest, we have a chance of more widespread showers on Monday, but just how widespread remains a question. We shall see.

Rest of next week

After Monday or Tuesday, our temperatures are back on the upswing. Highs will be in the mid-90s, then the upper-90s, and eventually possibly even back into the 100s. Rain chances will correspondingly decline. This very hot pattern persists at least into next weekend. The only note of hope that I can offer you is that, by that point, August will be half over.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s ongoing heat, and the potential for a slight respite during the second half of this week, and through the weekend. We also share some thoughts about El Niño and winter weather hype.

A few words on El Niño

The following section is a re-post from our companion site, The Eyewall. On Monday evening Matt wrote about the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season (it’s still dead), why it’s likely to remain quiet for at least the next week or two, and how El Niño should help keep activity on the lower side for the remainder of the season. He also addressed the topic of El Niño and the upcoming winter. It concerns winter in general for the United States, but is also applicable to Houston:

One thing I want to make sure the general public understands about this and the media ecosystem and content creation system today: You are going to hear people start making bold proclamations about El Niño and winter. Yes, winter. In August. It’s nonsense.

People will cherry pick the most exciting (read: cold/snowy) model they can get their hands on for winter to basically draw you into engagement. They’ll couch it in language like, “This is only one solution, and it’s not necessarily likely to happen, but when I see this, I take notice!” It’s a digital dopamine hit. And it’s just not right, nor is it being a meteorologist. It’s picking a cold model because they know you, the reader or viewer gets excited about that, and it will spur you into engagement, which in turn helps you to feed the beast, as it were.

It used to be rogue “social mediarologists” that did this, but it has gotten far worse and extended into professionals that know (or should know) better, particularly on the broadcast side of things. And a lot of the legacy media tries to draw you in with big, bold headlines too. Bottom line: If someone is selling you a historic cold or snowy winter right now, don’t buy the hype. Sure, there could be a storm or two—as happens almost every winter. That’s not exactly a forecast; it’s called climatology.

I would also add that some of Houston’s recent Arctic outbreaks, including the Valentines’ freeze of 2021, came during La Niña winters.

Ok, on to Houston’s upcoming forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Are we having fun yet? Houston’s official high temperature on Monday reached 99 degrees, and we’re heading back into that realm for the next couple of days. We are going to see plenty of sunshine, plenty of heat, and plenty of humidity. Could we also see some spotty rain showers? Yes, but the overall likelihood of rain is on the order of 10 percent for both days. Nights remain warm of sultry; sultry and warm; every evening and every morn. The doggerel will continue until morale improves.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

We’ll see increased atmospheric moisture levels toward the end of this week thanks to the Gulf, and this will have some subtle effects on our weather. Possibly Thursday, but very likely by Friday, we’ll see a few more clouds, and high temperatures will slip back into the low- to mid-90s across most of the region. Thanks to the sea breeze, we are likely to see scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I wouldn’t set your expectations too high, as overall daily chances are on the order of 20 or 30 percent. But it’s higher than what we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Next week

This modestly cooler pattern may persist into Monday or Tuesday of next week before I think we’re going to see sunnier and hotter weather. We’ll likely be at least back into the mid-90s by mid-week, and possibly higher. The joys of August!

In brief: In today’s post we look at how bad August really is in Houston, and fall back on a little post-war poetry for assistance. With regard to the forecast, we’ll be blistering hot for the next couple of days before conditions cool off slightly.

August

This is the month of no respite. This is the month, often, of no rain. This is the month of relentless heat and humidity.

This is, quite simply, the worst month of the year in Houston.

How bad is it? In the aftermath of World War I, the Irish poet W.B Yeats wrote The Second Coming about the world sliding into chaos and collapse. It is a dark and haunting poem, and I sometimes think of it when contemplating August in Houston. These lines in particular:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

That is how I feel about August. It is the hottest month of the year, with the warmest days and muggiest nights melting all into a blood-dimmed tide. It also, historically, is when the plurality of hurricanes strike Texas (September ranks second). We often fall into miserable droughts. And by this time of year we have already gone through June and July; a steady progression of ever hotter days, a seemingly endless march toward the realm of Hades. Mere anarchy, indeed, is loosed upon our metro area’s atmosphere.

The good news—and let’s be honest, good news is in short supply at the moment—is that nothing lasts forever. We are already on August 3, and 6.5 percent of the month is behind us. Fall is not right around the corner, but it does lie on the horizon. Plausibly we could see the region’s first front in six weeks or so. And in the more near term our weather later this week should see a slight downturn in temperatures. We celebrate these small wins in August, because that’s all we can hope for.

Monday

You may not have noticed it, but a weak front moved in to Houston on Saturday. Dewpoints on Sunday briefly dropped below 65 degrees in some locations, particularly north of Interstate 10. Although air temperatures were still in the upper 90s, the air was a smidge drier. There may be a similar, less pronounced, effect this afternoon. This slightly drier air will allow inland temperatures to once again push up near, or reach 100 degrees this afternoon before the sea breeze completely washes the drier air away. Areas near the coast will be a bit cooler this afternoon, but more humid. There will be about a 10 percent chance of showers this afternoon or evening. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees, so very sultry.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be hot, humid, and sunny days with highs in the upper 90s (perhaps 100 degrees for far inland areas). We cannot rule out some isolated to scattered afternoon showers, but chances are probably only in the 10 or 20 percent range. Nights remain sultry.

Thursday through Sunday

Although we’ll remain in the midst of fairly high pressure, we should see a more pronounced onshore flow during the second half of this week, and into the weekend. The effect of this will likely be to increase cloud cover (from mostly sunny to partly sunny, probably) and bump up daily rain chances to 30 or 40 percent. In turn, this should help bring down daily highs from the upper 90s to the mid-90s, or likely lower-90s for coastal areas. In terms of rain accumulations I would not expect too much in this pattern, but some passing showers would be generally welcome after a fairly dry period over the last few weeks. Anyway, as August goes, things could definitely be worse.

Next week

Speaking of worse, indications are that our pattern flips back to sunnier and hotter next week. But again, this entire month is about surviving and advancing, at least when it comes to weather. At least the tropics look quiet for now.

In brief: Houston’s sunny and hot weather continues, but we’re watching for modest impacts from a dying front on Saturday or Saturday night. Rain chances from this front are not great, but they’re the best we’ve seen in awhile around here.

Overview

High pressure will dominate for a few more days before a weak front squeezes into Texas on Saturday or Saturday night. This will bring us a brief shot at some showers (and possibly a thunderstorm or two, but probably not), and possibly a few hours of slightly lower humidity. The timing of the front is important here. Following this we’ll be back to hot and sunny weather for the majority of next week, although temperatures might be 1 or 2 degrees cooler than this week. Maybe. It’s gonna be August so you know it will be miserable.

Friday

Today will be like the rest of this week so far: highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, sunny, humid, and hot. Light winds this morning will turn gusty later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Lows remain sultry, only dropping to around 80 degrees or slightly below.

Saturday

Weakening high pressure will allow a front to slip into Texas on Friday and Saturday, and by Saturday afternoon or evening it should approach the greater Houston area. The timing is important, because if the front reaches the metro area during the afternoon or early evening there will be plenty of heat for it to help generate some showers and thunderstorms. If not, then there will be less coverage. For now let’s go with rain chances in the vicinity of 30 percent during the period of Saturday afternoon through the overnight hours. Aside from this, Saturday is still going to be hot, sunny, and humid.

Sunday and Monday

These will be hot days with highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees. The wrinkle is that our air mass might be slightly less humid due to the front’s arrival. Not knock-your-socks-off lower humidity, but the kind of thing you may be able to feel on Sunday morning or evening. Or not. Rain chances both days are near zero.

Next week

Houston’s weather turns slightly more normal-ish for August next week, with highs in the mid-90s to upper-90s most likely, and perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of afternoon showers. In general, this is pretty miserable. But because this is August, it’s pretty much the norm around these parts.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone. We’ll see you on Monday morning.