Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we take a look at the likely development of El Niño, and what that means for this summer, as well as next year. We also report on a forecast this week that will bring a lot of sunshine to Houston before a weak front arrives this weekend.

El Niño looms, and what it means for summer

It is becoming increasingly likely that a warmer phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, is likely to develop later this year, possibly by the summer. Although localized to the Pacific Ocean, the periodic warming and cooling there has global impacts, including providing upward pressure on global temperatures (The Climate Brink has a good overview of this). The latest modeling suggests that the El Niño likely to peak later this year will be a rather strong one, potentially one of the two strongest experienced during the last 40 years.

At this point you might be expecting me to say something like, with such a strong El Niño the United States will probably experience its warmest summer on record. And while that is possible, I would point out that the response from global surface temperatures typically lags the peak of El Niño by a couple of months, and right now I don’t expect it to peak until the end of this year. So the summer of 2027? Yeah, probably brutally hot.

But what about our forthcoming summer? Temperatures running about six degrees above normal for March 2026 do not give me the warm and fuzzies about what is to come. I would note that NOAA’s recently updated outlook predicted above normal temperatures for this summer, but not abnormally so.

In reality I expect we will see one of our warmest summer ever. My basis for this prediction is pretty simple. Based on average temperature (which is, simply, a daytime high and low temperature, divided by two) the last four summers have all ranked among the 10 warmest summers on record in Houston. The torrid summer of 2023 set the mark, at 88.0 degrees, but last summer was not far behind, ranking sixth overall at 86.0 degrees.

Monday

If you’re out hunting for meteorites to the northwest of Harris County today (NASA has a detailed map of where to look) you can expect fine weather to do so. We will see mostly cloudy skies this morning give way to more sunny conditions, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. Winds this afternoon will reach about 10 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it’s modestly humid, but not oppressively so. I have been finding recent evenings to be quite pleasant outside. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid-60s for most parts of the area, a little warmer near the coast and a little cooler further inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There will be a little variation for the rest of the week. Some days (Tuesday, perhaps) may have a few more clouds. But for the most part these will be mostly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s, modest humidity, and lows in the mid-60s. It will feel more like early May than late March, but that’s not to say it won’t be fairly nice outside. Rain chances are basically nil, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out a sprinkle on Tuesday. Fog is also likely to return during the overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front will likely push into the Houston metro area on Friday night or Saturday morning. This is unlikely to bring any precipitation with it (more on that in a moment) but it should usher in some slightly cooler weather. Look for highs this weekend to likely top out in the 70s, with lows perhaps in the 50s. Regardless, skies should remain mostly sunny. If you’re planning to attend the Houston Open golf tournament this week and weekend you really have no weather concerns aside from warmer-than-normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday, and the need for sunscreen on all four days.

Next week

Next week does begin to look a little more promising for rainfall. Obviously we’re days and days away, but most of our model guidance points to increasing rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. So it’s something we’ll monitor, but not about which I’m prepared to make any promises yet.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss high pressure and sinking air, which is the reason why Houston is likely to see wall-to-wall sunshine for the next week. We also take a look at just how hot temperatures are going to get this weekend.

High pressure, sinking air

As we discussed yesterday, a rather strong and persistent ridge of high pressure is building over the Western United States, and it is going to hold sway for at least the next week. Such highs produce conditions in which air, generally, sinks rather than rises. In the absence of rising air, it’s difficult to see the kinds of moisture needed for clouds to form to be lifted from the surface. Therefore we get days and days of blue skies. I am highly confident of nearly 100 percent clear skies for now through Sunday, and then I expect partly to mostly sunny skies (at least) to persist for much of next week. This lifted moisture is also necessary to produce precipitation, which is why I’m doubtful that we’re going to see any rain between now and the middle of next week, and quite possibly longer than that.

Thursday

We are experiencing our last ‘cool’ morning today, with lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. Winds are light, from the southwest, and will become a little stronger this afternoon, with gusts up to 15 mph perhaps. Skies will be—if you’ve been paying attention you already know the answer to this—sunny today with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.

Houston rodeo

The weather will be mighty fine for the rodeo later today, with temperatures this evening in the 70s, and southerly winds at about 10 mph. Lows will fall into the 60s after the show, and by early Friday morning they should drop to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some outlying areas will likely see lows in the 50s, and that may well be the last time for that until at least next weekend.

Friday

A fine, sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. Winds may be a little more perky from the south, with overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The ridge should reach its peak strength this weekend, and that will push our high temperatures into the upper-80s for most locations. Some inland areas may well hit 90 degrees for the first time this year. Regardless it’s going to be sunny and borderline hot this weekend. Southerly winds may gust up to about 20 mph during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 60s. It will feel moderately humid, but still be far below ‘normal’ humidity in Houston on a summer day. So I guess we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Next week

A weak front will approach the area early next week, but I don’t think it will bring us any precipitation. It should help knock a few degrees off daytime highs however, so maybe mid-80s rather than upper-80s. I still anticipate a lot of sunshine next week and low rain chances. That may change toward the end of the week with a frontal passage, but I’m making no promises or guarantees there.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss a very strong ridge of high pressure that is establishing itself across the Western United States, and what that means for Houston’s weather across the next 10 days.

Rocky Mountain High

Houston’s weather, and that for much of the Western United States, will be dominated by a large and persistent pattern of high pressure for the next week or 10 days. Although it is still early spring by the calendar, this high pressure system will be more characteristic of summertime, bringing intense heat across California and the Desert Southwest, with some locations there certain to break records for earliest 100-degree heat.

Here in Houston we will be on the periphery of this high pressure system, but still feel its effects. Beginning Friday, and lasting at least a week, we are likely to see mostly sunny skies and warm days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Along with this, rain chances will be near zero throughout the forecast period. The bottom line is that, beginning Friday, every day will be very much like the next.

Wednesday

It has not warmed up yet, however. Low temperatures this morning, away from the coast, are generally in the 40s. However, with mild southerly winds we are going to warm up nicely today, into the mid-70s. Skies will be sunny with relatively low humidity levels. Honestly, it should be a gorgeous day.

Houston rodeo weather

It’s Family Wednesday at the rodeo, and conditions look excellent. Temperatures late this afternoon will be in the lower 70s, falling to the lower 60s after the show. Winds may be a bit gusty early this this evening (perhaps up to 15 to 20 mph) so it may be a bit chilly in the shade. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-50s tonight, which is warmer than we’ve been, but cooler than we’ll be for awhile.

Thursday

This will be a sunny day with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows on Thursday night have a chance to drop into the upper 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Expect sunny and warm weather with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Sunday looks like the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees for some far inland areas. Nighttime temperatures will generally be in the 60s. Humidity levels will be rising, but not oppressive like they can be during the summer.

Next week

Sunny and warm conditions will persist for much of next week, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, and hopefully may bring us some rain showers. But no promises on that score, I’m afraid.

In brief: Temperatures this morning are reaching within a few degrees of record lows for the greater Houston area, with some rural areas experiencing a light freeze. Most of the city has remained just above freezing, however. Today we’ll begin a warming trend that won’t end for some time.

Coldest night competition

The official low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport is likely to bottom out at 33 degrees (the record low is 30 degrees, set in 1900), but whatever the official low ends up being temperatures this morning are likely to be Houston’s coldest for many months. Following a warming trend this week the rest of March looks rather warm, and then we’re in to April. So let’s have a competition. When will Houston’s temperature be this cold again? Leave your guess in the comments below and whoever is closest will win either a free Space City Weather t-shirt or a signed copy of Reentry. (Note: The official low did end up being 33 degrees).

Tuesday

St. Patrick’s Day will feel rather chilly to start, but at least those strong northerly winds have finally died down. Conditions are mostly calm this morning, and even this afternoon winds should only be 5 to 10 mph. But you will note they’re going to start shifting to come from the south, indicating the beginnings of a southerly flow. Anyway, with the help of sunny skies we should see high temperatures climb to around 60 degrees today, or a little warmer.

Houston rodeo forecast

If you’re headed out to the show today you can expect plenty of sunny skies and dry air. Winds will be light this evening, topping out at perhaps 10 mph. Temperatures this evening will be in the mid- to upper 50s, falling to the lower 50s after the show. With clear skies tonight, expect overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s for urban Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas, away from the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be sunny days with a continued warming trend. Expect highs in the mid-70s on Wednesday, followed by around 80 degrees on Thursday. Overnight lows will warm as well, first into the 50s, and then perhaps around 60 degrees. Humidity levels will start to climb, but the air should still feel fairly pleasant throughout this period.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks rather warm and sunny as a persistent ridge of high pressure asserts control of our weather. We can expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, with some areas possibly reaching 90 degrees, along with moderately humid air. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the mid-60s. The only real hazard I would caution against is the Sun, as it is getting a lot higher in the sky compared to where we were during the winter months. It is now reaches the same height in the sky as in September, so if you’re going to be outside for a prolonged period of time please protect your skin.

Next week

Our very much warmer-than-normal weather should persist at least through the middle of next week, with ongoing highs in the mid-80s and lows probably in the 60s for the most part. There may be some sort of front, along with decent rain chances, by Thursday or Friday of next week but I can make no promises on that account.