Eric Berger

In brief: Some low-end rain chances will now return to the forecast for the rest of the week, but don’t have high expectations. We continue to see warm and humid weather, with the Fourth looking to be in the mid-90s for most of us.

High pressure departing, sort of

After more than a week of residing over Texas, the high pressure system that has brought us sunny and hot weather is moving off to the northeast. (It will bring rather hot temperatures to the East Coast over the holiday weekend. Forecast highs in Washington DC on the Fourth of July, for example, are in the low 100s). Anyway, for us, it means a tiny bit of variation in the forecast for the next 10 days.

For starters, rain is back on the menu. Now don’t set your expectations too high, but we will start to see more atmospheric moisture moving in from the Gulf this week, and there won’t be as much sinking air over land to completely shut down showers. Daily rain chances are likely on the order of 20 percent this week, rising to perhaps 30 or 40 percent on Thursday. Overall accumulations still look to be pretty slight, so any showers that do develop should pass through pretty quickly.

As for temperatures, there won’t be too much change here. However, I could see a scenario in which our highs push a degree or two higher over the weekend. So for the Fourth of July we are looking at a rather warm day in the mid-90s for much of the region.

Tuesday

We are starting this morning in the upper 70s, with light winds from the southeast. As we’ve seen for awhile now, with mostly sunny skies this afternoon, expect highs across the region to rise into the low- to mid-90s. Winds will pick up this afternoon, gusting to perhaps 20 mph or so. We have the possibility of a few, brief showers. Low temperatures tonight should briefly fall into the upper 70s. The Saharan dust we saw peaking on Monday (with a slightly purple-ish sky) is largely gone now.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These days look to be more or less similar temperature-wise, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and mostly sunny skies. It is possible that slightly increased moisture levels on Thursday bump rain chances up a little bit higher (to like 30 or 40 percent) but I want to see a little more data before I become confident in that. Mostly, summer continues unabated however.

Fourth of July weekend

Mostly sunny skies will prevail over the holiday weekend, with highs likely in the mid-90s for most locations, and the possibility for some upper-90s for further inland areas. Look, it’s going to be early July in Texas, with plenty of sunshine, so you know it’s going to be hot and fairly humid. Could we see a few stray showers during the afternoon along the sea breeze? Sure. Are they likely for most areas? No. Fireworks viewing should be fine, if sultry. Don’t forget the bug spray.

Next week

At this point I expect next week to be fairly similar to this week’s conditions: Hot, some low-end rain chances, and plenty humid. It will be better than two years ago, when Hurricane Beryl was barreling down on Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s ongoing hot weather this week, and whether there will be any changes. We also dig into the forecast for the Fourth of July. Finally, the plumes of dust moving into Texas this week are so big they can be seen from space!

All we are is dust in the wind

Let’s face it, there’s not a whole lot to talk about weather-wise once again this week. This leaves us with dust, a fairly large plume of which is moving into Texas today. Over the weekend a company that operates cameras on the International Space Station, Sen, captured a pretty incredible view of Saharan dust approaching the Caribbean Sea.

This gives you some idea of the scope of these plumes, which are huge. For the most part the dust is beneficial, choking off the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes, and helping to revitalize soils where it comes ashore. This plume will peak later today. We’ll likely see continued rounds of dust (look for more vivid sunsets) in the coming weeks as “dust season” peaks.

Monday

In the headline of today’s post we asked if Houston’s weather is going to change much this week. I’m a sucker for proving Betteridge’s law of headlines to be correct, so the answer is largely no. However there will be some subtle changes from last week simply because the high pressure dominating our weather of late will gradually shift to the northeast. This will open us up to some slight, daily rain chances. Think something like 20 percent, varying on a day to day basis. These are most likely during the afternoon hours, along the sea breeze. And if you do get hit with a shower, most likely it will move through quickly.

As for today, well, it’s going to be hot and sunny. If you’re in town for the World Cup knockout game between Japan and Brazil, welcome! We can all be thankful there’s a roof over Houston Stadium because the game kicks off at noon, local time. High temperatures today will be in the low- to mid-90s. Humidity will be high, of course. Winds will be from the south, gusting up to about 20 mph this afternoon.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

And … not much changes for the rest of the week. We’re going to see highs in the low- to mid-90s across the region, with partly to mostly sunny skies. There will be a slight chance of daytime showers. Humidity will be high, but with dewpoints in the low- to mid-70s it will not be as ultra-high as we can get during the summer months. As a result overnight lows probably will slip into the upper 70s on some nights.

Fourth of July holiday weekend

Most people, I think, are getting Friday off this week as part of the Fourth of July holiday weekend. (But don’t worry, I’ve chained Matt to his keyboard, so he’s definitely not getting Friday off here). Anyway, the prevailing weather for this weekend will see continued hot and sunny weather, with high temperatures perhaps ticking up a degree or two. However, there are some subtle hints in the models that we might see a few more clouds, and therefore I’m not sure whether daily rain chances will be something like 10 percent or 30 percent. In any case, my overall expectations are for mostly fine weather for fireworks and outdoor celebrations over the holiday weekend (typical early July heat notwithstanding), but my crystal ball is not yet totally clear.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our ongoing sunny and hot weather. Not much changes on that score for about a week. However, we are likely to see our first serious incursions of Saharan dust early next week.

Saharan dust

We are nearing the point of summer during which we begin see large plumes of dust, lifted from the Saharan Desert, transported across the Atlantic Ocean. This occurs most prominently in July, but can also happen in June or August. The atmospheric dust has myriad effects, including diminishing the potential for tropical storms and hurricanes to form. This is one reason why we expect the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet for awhile.

We also sometimes see incursions of dust into the Gulf, and onshore into Texas. Some of our modeling indicates the Houston region will experience the first of these plumes beginning Sunday or Monday. This is nothing to fear. It may somewhat increase unhealthy air levels for people sensitive to air quality. But mostly it will just make our skies look different, with the dust helping to produce spectacular sunsets.

Additionally this dust is beneficial to our soils, so it’s not a particularly bad things to experience. It’s also a reminder that this entire planet, big though it may be, is interconnected. When you inhale these tiny dust particles (chances are you won’t realize you’re doing it), understand they have flown as many as 8,000 miles across the ocean to reach your nose.

Thursday and Friday

The forecast remains the same with high pressure still holding sway. Our high temperatures within the city of Houston will generally be in the low- to mid-90s, with slightly cooler daytime conditions in Galveston and other coastal areas. Skies will be sunny. Afternoons will be a bit gusty, with winds from the south. Nights remain warm and muggy, with lows generally in the upper 70s. This is typical weather for late June.

Saturday and Sunday

There really will be no change in the pattern for this weekend. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence (and sunscreen).

Next week

The first couple of days next week should bring a continuation of this pattern, but by mid-week high pressure should be easing away and this may open us up to seabreeze showers. Think daily rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent, primarily during the afternoon. It’s a little too early to have confidence in the Fourth of July forecast, but at this point some showers are possible. We shall see!

In brief: In today’s post we briefly discuss the ongoing ridge of high pressure dominating Houston’s weather. We also take a look at what’s happening in the Atlantic tropics (not much), and more interestingly talk about the AI model that performed exceptionally well during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropics update and AI model review

The short answer is that the Atlantic tropics are quiet. This is often the case for late June, when Atlantic sea surface temperatures are still warming toward their peak later this summer, and wind shear is fairly high. The other factor working against tropical storms and hurricanes at this time of year is Saharan dust, and there is plenty of it across the Atlantic basin right now. I would expect the Atlantic tropics to remain quiet through the end of June, and probably at least a week into July, if not longer.

Before moving on to the rest of today’s post, I did want to note one thing about hurricane models. Earlier this year the National Hurricane Center published its annual verification report for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. One of the questions this report answers concerns the performance of the various forecast models for the “track” of tropical systems. And last year there was a clear winner, Google’s DeepMind model which is based on artificial intelligence. For forecast periods of 12 hours to 4 days out, the model’s performance was better even than that of the National Hurricane Center and various consensus models. It’s quite striking.

Our friend and colleague Michael Lowry has an excellent post explaining all of this on his “Eye on the Tropics” Substack, and it’s worth a read to put the performance of this AI model into perspective. Speaking for Matt and myself, we used Google’s model as part of our suite of tools last year, and obviously will continue to do so. I’m eager to see if it is a top performer again this year.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Back in Houston, our forecast has not changed much. Or rather, at all. A fairly strong ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather for the time being. This will bring us mostly sunny skies, humidity, and hot temperatures. Highs for the rest of this week will be in the low- to mid-90s, with plenty of humidity. Overnight lows will generally drop into the mid- to upper-70s. Rain chances are basically zero. Winds will be calm in the morning, with moderately gusty conditions (up to 20 mph) during the afternoon. And that is basically it.

Saturday and Sunday

Are we expecting much change in the weather this weekend? In short, no. Perhaps we’ll see nighttime temperatures 1 to 2 degrees warmer, but it will be difficult to notice much difference.

Next week

Our sunny and hot weather continues into next week, but by Wednesday or so, some of our forecast models are indicating a turn toward a more typical summertime pattern, with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. However, when we get into these persistent high pressure patterns it can be difficult to break them, so we’re offering no guarantees here.