Eric Berger

In brief: The Houston region will see its best conditions for rainfall for at least the next week, and probably longer, today as tropical moisture surges. After this high pressure clamps down and the region will experience some serious August heat.

High pressure is coming

Over the weekend, the region saw scattered showers and thunderstorms due to a weakness in between two high pressure systems. That ongoing weakness today, along with surging tropical moisture levels, is going to give us a day with fairly healthy rain chances for much of the Houston region. But soon, beginning Tuesday, high pressure over our region will begin to amplify. This will bring us one of those classic August ridges beneath which temperatures soar, skies are clear, and rain showers are nowhere to be found. This pattern is likely to persist into next week.

Monday

We are already seeing some scattered showers develop offshore this morning, and these should begin to move inland by 9 am to noon. Theses showers will progress into central areas a little bit later today. Not everyone is going to get rainfall, to be sure, and chances for areas north of Harris County are lower than for locations closer to the coast. Totals will generally be less than 1 inch, and my sense is that if your yard ends up with half an inch of rainfall you should count yourselves lucky. Rain chances subside by this evening.

In terms of temperatures, because we are going to see a few more clouds today, I think highs will generally max out in the low-90s for Houston, and possibly mid-90s for inland areas such as The Woodlands. Winds will be light, from the south, perhaps gusting a bit later this afternoon. Overnight lows may briefly fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

This day will see highs in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of showers as high pressure begins to build over the area. So probably not, but there is at least the slightest of chances.

Wednesday through the weekend

Highs will range from the lower 90s right along the coast to the upper-90s for central and inland portions of the Houston region. We cannot rule out some 100-degree readings. Rain chances will be near zero with sunny skies. If you have any outdoor plans, you can be confident in hot and sunny August weather complying. If you’re tired of the heat and humidity, well, it’s August my friends. It isn’t going anywhere.

Next week

This high-pressure dominated pattern will hold into the middle of next week. After that there’s some possibility of change, but it’s not something I’m willing to bet on at this point.

Atlantic tropics

We’ll have a few more words to say about this tomorrow, but we are starting to see some signs of the Atlantic waking up a little bit. Of particular note is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, which appears increasingly likely to develop into a tropical storm. But at this point there are good reasons to believe it will not be a threat to the Gulf, and probably not any landmasses. We’ll see.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the pattern that will bring slightly cooler weather and improved rain chances over the several days. Monday continues to look like the day when the region will see its most widespread rainfall, but even then many will probably be disappointed. Major heat looms on the horizon.

Quick August status update

We are now 16 percent of the way through August, if you’re keeping track. And I am. The good news is that we are going to see a bit of a break in temperatures over the weekend, and possibly even some scattered rain showers as high pressure relents a little bit. The bad news is that the latter half of next week (and beyond?) still appears likely to see the return of a stout high, and a period of very warm temperatures.

Thursday

This will be another day that in some ways will similar to what we’ve experienced so far this week: sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-90s for most inland areas. Coastal locations will see daytime temperatures that are a few degrees lower, but it’s going to be hot and humid everywhere. However, one change is that conditions are a little more favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Most of us probably won’t see any rain, but localized downpours may produce 1 inch or more. These showers are most likely to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours, with peak heating.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs over the weekend will be a few degrees lower, perhaps in the mid-90s for most of Houston. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy. We are likely to see mostly sunny skies most of the time, but each day will likely have a roughly 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. These will be hit or miss, again, so expect the potential for some localized downpours.

Monday

This will probably be the “coolest” day of the period, with partly cloudy skies and highs perhaps only reaching the lower 90s for most locations. With high pressure likely at its weakest, we have a chance of more widespread showers on Monday, but just how widespread remains a question. We shall see.

Rest of next week

After Monday or Tuesday, our temperatures are back on the upswing. Highs will be in the mid-90s, then the upper-90s, and eventually possibly even back into the 100s. Rain chances will correspondingly decline. This very hot pattern persists at least into next weekend. The only note of hope that I can offer you is that, by that point, August will be half over.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s ongoing heat, and the potential for a slight respite during the second half of this week, and through the weekend. We also share some thoughts about El Niño and winter weather hype.

A few words on El Niño

The following section is a re-post from our companion site, The Eyewall. On Monday evening Matt wrote about the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season (it’s still dead), why it’s likely to remain quiet for at least the next week or two, and how El Niño should help keep activity on the lower side for the remainder of the season. He also addressed the topic of El Niño and the upcoming winter. It concerns winter in general for the United States, but is also applicable to Houston:

One thing I want to make sure the general public understands about this and the media ecosystem and content creation system today: You are going to hear people start making bold proclamations about El Niño and winter. Yes, winter. In August. It’s nonsense.

People will cherry pick the most exciting (read: cold/snowy) model they can get their hands on for winter to basically draw you into engagement. They’ll couch it in language like, “This is only one solution, and it’s not necessarily likely to happen, but when I see this, I take notice!” It’s a digital dopamine hit. And it’s just not right, nor is it being a meteorologist. It’s picking a cold model because they know you, the reader or viewer gets excited about that, and it will spur you into engagement, which in turn helps you to feed the beast, as it were.

It used to be rogue “social mediarologists” that did this, but it has gotten far worse and extended into professionals that know (or should know) better, particularly on the broadcast side of things. And a lot of the legacy media tries to draw you in with big, bold headlines too. Bottom line: If someone is selling you a historic cold or snowy winter right now, don’t buy the hype. Sure, there could be a storm or two—as happens almost every winter. That’s not exactly a forecast; it’s called climatology.

I would also add that some of Houston’s recent Arctic outbreaks, including the Valentines’ freeze of 2021, came during La Niña winters.

Ok, on to Houston’s upcoming forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Are we having fun yet? Houston’s official high temperature on Monday reached 99 degrees, and we’re heading back into that realm for the next couple of days. We are going to see plenty of sunshine, plenty of heat, and plenty of humidity. Could we also see some spotty rain showers? Yes, but the overall likelihood of rain is on the order of 10 percent for both days. Nights remain warm of sultry; sultry and warm; every evening and every morn. The doggerel will continue until morale improves.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

We’ll see increased atmospheric moisture levels toward the end of this week thanks to the Gulf, and this will have some subtle effects on our weather. Possibly Thursday, but very likely by Friday, we’ll see a few more clouds, and high temperatures will slip back into the low- to mid-90s across most of the region. Thanks to the sea breeze, we are likely to see scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I wouldn’t set your expectations too high, as overall daily chances are on the order of 20 or 30 percent. But it’s higher than what we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Next week

This modestly cooler pattern may persist into Monday or Tuesday of next week before I think we’re going to see sunnier and hotter weather. We’ll likely be at least back into the mid-90s by mid-week, and possibly higher. The joys of August!

In brief: In today’s post we look at how bad August really is in Houston, and fall back on a little post-war poetry for assistance. With regard to the forecast, we’ll be blistering hot for the next couple of days before conditions cool off slightly.

August

This is the month of no respite. This is the month, often, of no rain. This is the month of relentless heat and humidity.

This is, quite simply, the worst month of the year in Houston.

How bad is it? In the aftermath of World War I, the Irish poet W.B Yeats wrote The Second Coming about the world sliding into chaos and collapse. It is a dark and haunting poem, and I sometimes think of it when contemplating August in Houston. These lines in particular:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

That is how I feel about August. It is the hottest month of the year, with the warmest days and muggiest nights melting all into a blood-dimmed tide. It also, historically, is when the plurality of hurricanes strike Texas (September ranks second). We often fall into miserable droughts. And by this time of year we have already gone through June and July; a steady progression of ever hotter days, a seemingly endless march toward the realm of Hades. Mere anarchy, indeed, is loosed upon our metro area’s atmosphere.

The good news—and let’s be honest, good news is in short supply at the moment—is that nothing lasts forever. We are already on August 3, and 6.5 percent of the month is behind us. Fall is not right around the corner, but it does lie on the horizon. Plausibly we could see the region’s first front in six weeks or so. And in the more near term our weather later this week should see a slight downturn in temperatures. We celebrate these small wins in August, because that’s all we can hope for.

Monday

You may not have noticed it, but a weak front moved in to Houston on Saturday. Dewpoints on Sunday briefly dropped below 65 degrees in some locations, particularly north of Interstate 10. Although air temperatures were still in the upper 90s, the air was a smidge drier. There may be a similar, less pronounced, effect this afternoon. This slightly drier air will allow inland temperatures to once again push up near, or reach 100 degrees this afternoon before the sea breeze completely washes the drier air away. Areas near the coast will be a bit cooler this afternoon, but more humid. There will be about a 10 percent chance of showers this afternoon or evening. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees, so very sultry.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be hot, humid, and sunny days with highs in the upper 90s (perhaps 100 degrees for far inland areas). We cannot rule out some isolated to scattered afternoon showers, but chances are probably only in the 10 or 20 percent range. Nights remain sultry.

Thursday through Sunday

Although we’ll remain in the midst of fairly high pressure, we should see a more pronounced onshore flow during the second half of this week, and into the weekend. The effect of this will likely be to increase cloud cover (from mostly sunny to partly sunny, probably) and bump up daily rain chances to 30 or 40 percent. In turn, this should help bring down daily highs from the upper 90s to the mid-90s, or likely lower-90s for coastal areas. In terms of rain accumulations I would not expect too much in this pattern, but some passing showers would be generally welcome after a fairly dry period over the last few weeks. Anyway, as August goes, things could definitely be worse.

Next week

Speaking of worse, indications are that our pattern flips back to sunnier and hotter next week. But again, this entire month is about surviving and advancing, at least when it comes to weather. At least the tropics look quiet for now.