In brief: The rest of this week will see the potential for storms in the Houston region, and as of right now Wednesday looks to have the most widespread activity. Due to the possibility of heavy rainfall within stronger thunderstorms, and the cumulative effect of multiple rounds of rainfall, we have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place for this week.
Unsettled pattern
As we’ve been discussing on the site, Houston remains in a pattern where the absence of high pressure leaves us open to passing atmospheric disturbances. We will continue to see these systems sweep through our region every 18 to 24 hours or so, bringing a chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone is going to get hit with storms every day, but the threat of heavy rainfall and lightning is going to be part of our weather story at least through the weekend.
We can count on daily rain chances of 50 percent, or higher, through Sunday. Due to the potential for isolated flooding with each round of of showers, and the cumulative effect of all this by the weekend, we have put a Stage 1 flood alert into place until further notice. This is to cover the potential for (mostly minor) street flooding issues.
Tuesday
The radar is quiet this morning, and I expect things to likely remain quiet until around noon. However, after that there is about a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with perhaps the best chances in the central Houston area and to the far north of the metro region: i.e. Conroe and points north. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Actual highs will depend on the timing and coverage of the rainfall. Winds will generally be light, except in thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s with a slight chance of rain.

There is a slight chance of “excessive rainfall” on Wednesday in our region. (NOAA)
Wednesday
High resolution models are indicating that a particularly potent disturbance will sweep through on Wednesday. I’d put rain chances in the 70 or 80 percent ballpark, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The timing is tricky, but right now the most impactful rains and thunderstorms are likely to fall during the middle of the day. Highs will probably top out in the vicinity of 90 degrees.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Overall the pattern is not likely to change much over the second half of the week, and into the weekend. Days will be partly cloudy, with highs in the vicinity of 90 to 93 degrees, with plenty of humidity. Each day will bring perhaps a 50 to 70 percent chance of rain, with isolated, strong thunderstorms. If you have outdoor plans, there’s a chance you can squeeze them in, as it certainly will not be wall-to-wall rain. But you probably want to have a backup plan.

Next week
This overall pattern now seems likely to extend into the middle of next week, perhaps through about Tuesday or Wednesday, before we see more sunshine and warmer temperatures, along with a diminution in rain chances.
