Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we take a look back at Hurricane Katrina, and what has changed in the 20 years since then. Additionally we discuss a front that will slog into the area and make for a soggy weekend. However, we do expect drier and cooler weather for much of next week, which is a fine way to start September.

Katrina at 20 years

As many as a quarter of a million people evacuated from New Orleans to Houston before and after Hurricane Katrina struck the city 20 years ago, today. My hope is that, if you’re from Louisiana and reading this site, that you have found a good home in the greater Houston area. One thing I love about this city is that we are generally a welcoming people, with a warm culture that rewards hard work. Hurricanes are awful disasters, tearing apart not just physical structures but communities and human bonds. In that sense Katrina is the most wrenching storm of our lifetimes, utterly transforming New Orleans and upending so many lives.

Katrina marked a defining moment in my career. By 2005 I had been writing about science for the Houston Chronicle for half a decade, and had very recently begun a science blog for the newspaper called “SciGuy.” (The Chronicle has taken it offline, but you can find it on the wayback machine). As I had written about the “big one” hitting southern Louisiana before, I decided to go all-in on covering the storm online. It was my first real experience writing about weather, forecast models, and meteorology in real time. Three weeks later I went even deeper when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston and prompted a horrendous evacuation. That experience helped me realize that it was possible to compete with television stations online in weather forecasting. It was the beginning of a journey that led to me getting an education in meteorology, becoming a meteorologist, and starting Space City Weather 10 years later. And here we are.

Finally, I worry a lot about what would happen if a storm like Katrina threatened the Gulf coast again. It surely will. Certainly our ability to predict where a storm will go, and how strong it will get, has improved dramatically in 20 years. But beyond that, as a society, I fear we are in a worse position. The public’s trust in the federal government has been shaken. For example, in the wake of Hurricane Helene last year FEMA workers were harassed. In terms of a media environment, no one trusts anyone, and misinformation about weather is rampant online. Heck, we cannot even agree on what to call the Gulf any more. Hurricanes rip at the fabric of our societies and governments, and that fabric is weaker than it was two decades ago; our communities and institutions more riven by politics and mistrust. I have spent some time over the last week reading government reports from 20 years ago in the wake of Katrina that assessed failures (i.e. this bipartisan report from Congress), and it is painfully obvious we have not heeded many of the lessons that Katrina taught us. We are bound to learn them again with future storms.

Friday

We are still watching for the possibility showers and thunderstorms later today, which could impact Friday Night Lights and the beginning of high school football. Overall chances are pretty low, perhaps in the range of 20 percent. But the atmosphere is perturbed enough that anything that gets going could develop into something with a fair bit of lightning this afternoon or evening. Otherwise we can expect a hot and mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. Clouds will increase tonight, with lows dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday

A cool front will approach and move into the city on Saturday. Once again I want to be clear about expectations. We are not at the point of the the year when fronts come barreling into the region and one can step outside and say, “ahh, that’s refreshing.” Maybe October for that. So this front will move in and then dry air should slowly accumulate over the next few days. Alright, so Saturday is still going to be pretty warm (low 90s) and humid. We are also going to see a healthy chance of rain, about 50 percent, that will continue for much of the Labor Day weekend. It won’t be wall to wall rain for sure, but there should be rounds of showers that add up to 1 to 2 inches over the weekend, with isolated areas getting more. Lows on Saturday night will probably remain stubbornly in the upper 70s.

Sunday and Monday

I think rain chances will probably peak on Sunday before falling back a bit to about 50 percent on Labor Day. This will help moderate high temperatures, keeping them at about 90 degrees, with nights in the mid-70s. The bottom line is that yes, you probably will be able to find some sunny spots of weather this weekend, but you’re also going to need to be dodging showers that could bring some spurts of moderate to heavy rainfall. Matt and I will be watching things this weekend, and if an update is warranted regarding the potential for flooding, we’ll have something for you. But for the most part we expect these to be nuisance showers rather than something that is seriously impactful to mobility.

Next week

Rain chances should drop significantly by Tuesday. We generally should remain in a pattern where there’s a northerly flow next week, and possibly into next weekend. This means, I think, that we will see mostly sunny days with highs in the low 90s, and nights in the low 70s. Eventually (by Monday or so) we probably will start to feel some drier air that does knock down humidity a bit.

Finally, I don’t want to give anyone false hope, but the European model has been hinting at the possibility of a slightly stronger front by Friday-ish of next week for a couple of days now. I’m not certain that will happen, but it does seem possible. We shall see.

In brief: The next two days will feel pretty typical for Houston’s hottest and most humid month, but a front will usher in a pattern change for Labor Day Weekend. We will see higher rain chances on Saturday and Sunday, before some modestly drier air arrives. High temperatures for parts of the holiday weekend may top out in the 80s.

Thursday

After fairly widespread shower activity on Wednesday the region should only see isolated rains today, with the best chances (perhaps 30 percent) right along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny, with sticky humidity. Winds will blow from the south at 5 to 10 mph. In terms of temperatures, generally we can expect highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is pretty standard for this time of year. Lows tonight will be sticky, dropping only into the upper 70s.

Friday

Friday should be another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures pushing into the mid-90s for the most part. So, pretty warm. However, unlike on Thursday there should be a slightly better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours. This is because the atmosphere should become a little more unsettled as a front slowly advances from the north, and this has the potential to impact some High School football games. There’s also a scenario in which the storms hold off until later on Friday night after the lights are turned off. We shall see.

Saturday

This is the day when a front slowly sags into the region. It will take some time for (modestly) drier air to work its way into Houston, so Saturday is still going to feel fairly warm and humid, with highs in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely during the afternoon hours, with the best chances northeast of a line from Kingwood to Baytown. Rains remain likely on Saturday night and into Sunday, with lows dropping into the mid-70s.

Sunday

Skies look to remain partly to mostly cloudy, and along with ongoing rain chances (perhaps about 50 percent) for the area this should combine to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. Our air will be slightly drier, but you should not expect to walk outside and say, “oh my, it’s fall!” Lows on Sunday night could drop into the lower 70s for areas inland of Interstate 10, but I’m still not sure just how much drier and cooler air will arrive this weekend.

Labor Day

The holiday looks to be a partly sunny day. High temperatures should top out in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees, with a low-end chance of rain. Lows on Monday night should again drop into the lower 70s for areas away from the coast.

Next week

As rain chances back off, high temperatures may try to rally into the mid-90s for a couple of days with mostly sunny skies. There are some hints of another front by next weekend, but there is no real consistency in the models and I don’t want to set expectations. Pretty clearly, however, we are not headed toward a sizzling early September, like we sometimes see.

In brief: Today’s post dives a little bit deeper into expectations and uncertainties about a front that should push off the coast by Saturday evening, or so. I’m hopeful that some inland areas will see nights in the 60s. Before that we have a healthy chance of rain today, and again on Saturday.

About that front

It’s still August, so any expectations about fronts really need to be tempered around these parts. However, it now seems highly likely that a front—this is a boundary between a warmer and more humid air mass and a cooler and drier one—will push into the greater Houston area on Saturday. The real question is how much oomph it has. Since we are still a few days out, there is some built-in uncertainty. And then there is the time of year. In late August we just rarely see much cooling with any frontal passage. The bottom line: It’s just too early to have any real expectations.

And yet, this front has some potential. The most likely outcome is that the front makes it to the coast, and brings some modestly drier air into areas along and north of Interstate 10. This could bring central and northern parts of the region a few days with temperatures in the low 90s, and nights in the lower 70s. Now this is not chilly, but it will be quite nice for late August and early September. However, there is a non-zero chance of something slightly stronger that pushes nighttime lows into the upper 60s for much of the city. Anyway, it’s an interesting setup, and it certainly beats the usual alternative for this time of year—highs pushing triple digits with very muggy nights.

Wednesday

Even before sunrise this morning we are seeing some scattered showers and thunderstorms streaming in from the coast. The overall atmosphere is fairly unsettled, and with daytime heating I expect to see fairly widespread activity later today. Most locations are likely to only pick up a tenth of an inch, or two, but there could be a few bullseyes with 0.5 inch or so. Coastal areas are most likely to see the higher-end totals. These rains, and partly cloudy skies, should help to limit high temperatures to the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances slacken this evening, with nighttime temperatures expected in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

As the atmosphere stabilizes a bit, our daily rain chances will probably drop back to about 30 percent on both of these days, with a little bit more sunshine. High temperatures both days are likely to be in the mid-90s. With luck, these may be some of the last days this year when areas of Houston see highs of 95 degrees, or higher. (No promises!)

Saturday

As noted above, we expect a front to slowly slide into Houston on Saturday. This will not be an “in your face” front, but rather one where we should see modestly drier air moving into the area for a few days as winds shift to come from the north. This front will bring a healthy chance of rain with it. I’m not anticipating anything too severe, just garden variety showers and thunderstorms that bring 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain to most locations, with higher isolated amounts possible. If you have outdoor plans you’ll want to account for the possibility of showers, including into the evening. Highs on Saturday will likely be about 90 degrees, with lows on Saturday night dropping into the mid-70s.

Sunday

By Sunday we should start to get an idea of how much cooler and drier air is going to work its way into Houston. Some lingering showers will definitely be possible, but on the whole we should see a trend toward clearing skies. Highs probably will top out in the upper 80s, or so. Lows on Sunday night could be interesting. For now I’ll hold the line at the lower 70s for most locations away from the coast, but I think upper 60s could be in play for inland areas. Fingers crossed!

Next week

I expect the (somewhat) drier air to hang around for Monday and perhaps Tuesday. This should give us a couple of days with high temperatures around 90 degrees, and nights (maybe) in the low 70s. Humidity probably won’t be low, but it should be lower than normal for this time of year. So, I’ll take it. Much of next week looks sunny before rain chances return by Thursday or Friday.