Eric Berger

In brief: After Monday Houston’s weather will turn to a much wetter pattern that is likely to persist for at least a week, if not longer. We are holding off issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for now, but it is something we’re going to be watching closely in the coming days.

Our pattern is a changin’

The atmosphere above Houston will turn unsettled this week in the absence of high pressure, and with a large scale pattern that will send a series of disturbances into the region through the weekend. When you add in a stalled frontal boundary and very high levels of moisture, you get a recipe for rainfall, and potentially lots of it, through the weekend.

Here’s what we know: The overall pattern will support the development of widespread showers beginning later on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and persisting through the coming weekend. Most of the region is likely to pick up between 3 and 5 inches of rainfall, but there are almost certainly will be some bullseyes above 5 inches as rainfall totals stack up. For now we are going to hold off issuing a Stage 1 flood advisory, but that may well be coming in a day or two as rainfall totals begin to stack up later this week.

What about severe weather? A weak front is likely to approach Houston, and possibly push into the area on Tuesday evening or overnight. If this happens it could trigger some stronger thunderstorms, some of which become severe in terms of damaging winds and possibly hail. The timing for this is still uncertain, but potentially it could impact the commute home on Tuesday evening or the later hours.

This wet pattern is likely to persist through the weekend, and possibly into early next week.

Monday

If you’re wondering when it won’t rain this week, today is a good bet. I think we’ll see some isolated showers today, but overall our skies should mostly be cloudy. Even so temperatures are likely to push into the upper 80s, with plenty of humidity, so it will be a warm one. We are going to see those gusty southerly winds again, especially during the afternoon hours. They will die down overnight, with temperatures only falling into the upper 70s (at most) for much of Houston.

Tuesday

Rain chances should again be pretty low during the daytime on Tuesday, perhaps in the vicinity of 20 percent. We also will have a decent chance at seeing a bit of sunshine during the midday hours, probably our best shot at clear skies for the rest of the week. This will help temperatures once again rise into the upper 80s. The uncertainty will come later in the day when a front approaches the area from the west. This will bring a line of storms with it, but at this time it is not clear that the front will push into the city of Houston, or all the way down to the coast. So while there is a chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms during Tuesday evening or Tuesday night in and around Houston, I am not fully committing to it. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be prime time days for widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms. Daily rain chances, for pretty much the entire area, will be on the order of 80 percent. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Again, for now we’re holding off on flood alerts, but we are going to be closely monitoring rainfall totals and a changing forecast. To be clear, for now we expect things to be mostly fine in terms of driving condition most of the time, but we’re just going to have to see. Highs will be in the low- to mid-80s, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. Mid-may could certainly be hotter, so there’s an upside to the showers.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

This general pattern is going to persist into the weekend. If I squint, it’s possible that we could see daily rain chances come down to something like 60 percent. But I don’t have much confidence in that. Highs will remain in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. At this point the pattern does not look to change too much next week. Rain chances may come down a bit. We may have some partly sunny and slightly warmer days. But overall the possibility of rain remains in the forecast. Happily, it appears that Mother Nature is preparing to wipe all vestiges of drought from our area before we get into summer proper.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s sunny weather this week, and a splash of lower humidity before sultry conditions return this weekend. Rain may return by Sunday night or Monday.

Real talk, y’all

There is no shortage of inclement weather in Houston, from hurricanes to freezes, and heavy rainfall to deep summer heat. But at other times our pattern is calm and fairly predictable. This is one of those times. I’m not saying you should not read Space City Weather for the next day or two, but if you wanted to take a break it would not be the worst idea in the world. Houston’s weather pattern is fairly calm in the coming days, and in terms of confidence I don’t expect the forecast to change too much.

Wednesday

We are seeing another pleasantly cool morning across Houston, with temperatures in the upper 60s in Houston, and even cooler the further northeast one travels. Don’t get used to this, because are lows are going up big time this weekend. But for now, it is really rather pleasant. With light northwest winds, sunny skies, and moderately dry air our high temperatures this afternoon will rise to about 90 degrees, or even a touch above. Temperatures will cool down this evening, with lows tonight probably dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston, with conditions a touch cooler for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a day a lot of like Wednesday in all but one respect: winds. They’re going to veer from the west to south, and this will be the beginning of the onshore flow. Afternoon winds may gust up to 20 or 25 mph. Lows on Thursday night should drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies and breezy southerly winds. Lows will only drop into the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with the best chance for some clearing skies during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally be in the vicinity of 85 to 90 degrees for most locations, with plenty of humidity. Our nighttime lows will be quite a bit more sultry, in the upper 70s. Rain chances on both days will be about 10 percent, so pretty low overall. That may change by Sunday evening or night.

Next week

As the moisture levels pile up in our atmosphere and high pressure departs over the weekend, this will set the stage for higher rain chances during the first half of next week. I don’t feel too confident yet in accumulations, but after a warm and sunny week any precipitation will be welcome for most of us. In terms of temperatures, highs probably will hang out somewhere in the upper 80s before, possibly, a weak front pushes into the area by the middle of the week. Maybe. These things often tend to wash out before pushing all the way through Houston at this time of year.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our somewhat cooler-than-normal start to the month of May. Alas, it won’t last. After some lower humidity to start the week, dewpoints and overnight lows will rise considerably as we get into the weekend.

Stickier weather ahead

Through the first 11 days of this month the city of Houston’s average temperature has been 72.3 degrees, which is running 2.4 degrees below normal. We have had several nights in the 50s and lower 60s, along with a couple of fronts. All of this has given us a nice start to the month, and perhaps led some of us to forget that we are right on summer’s doorstep.

That will change later this week. Our moderately cooler nights and somewhat drier air will hang around through Wednesday or Thursday. But by this weekend a much muggier pattern returns to the area. We’re talking about daytime highs in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees. However the impact will be even greater at night, with very sticky conditions and lows only dropping into the upper 70s.

So if you enjoy more moderate conditions during the mornings and evenings—which I certainly do—today and Wednesday are your best bets.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Houston will enjoy a light, northerly flow today and Wednesday, and this will bring us continued fine weather for May. High temperatures today will likely be in the mid-80s, followed by the upper-80s on Wednesday. Both days will be sunny. With dewpoints in the low 60s our humidity is not exactly low, but it will still be quite a bit more comfortable than it will be by this weekend. Mornings and evenings will remain quite pleasant, and we can expect overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will also be days with sunny to mostly sunny skies, but the air probably will be a bit more humid as our flow turns southerly. Expect highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, with nighttime temperatures in the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

As we head into the weekend Houston’s weather will turn more humid. With more atmospheric moisture I also expect partly to mostly cloudy days, although there will still probably be some afternoon sunshine about. This will likely determine how high temperatures get, but generally they probably will top out in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Nights will only drop down into the upper 70s, so yeah, we aren’t going to cool down much. Rain chances are not zero, but they probably are about 10 percent so you should be good to go for outdoor activities.

Next week

In the most likely scenario we will remain warm and muggy. However beginning Monday our atmosphere may turn somewhat more disturbed, and this would open our region up to some better rain chances.

In brief: As Houston’s weather turns calmer on Monday, we take a brief look at what to expect when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off in three weeks. We also look ahead to mostly sunny skies and hotter temperatures later this week in Houston. The weekend looks fine.

Storms pass, check your calendar

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a front moved through the Houston region overnight, lighting up the sky with thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts varied widely across the region, with some locations picking up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall and others virtually nothing. The bulk of this activity is now nearly all offshore, although there may be some lingering showers today, especially for areas south of Interstate 10 in Houston.

Also, of note, we are now three weeks from the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. We are going to have our official preview later this month, but this morning our companion website, The Eyewall, digs in to the data this morning and looks at what a strong-ish El Niño would mean for Atlantic hurricane season. One concern is that waters in the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward the start of this season, are significantly warmer than normal. This may offset some of the dampening effect that El Niño would otherwise have.

Monday

The vast majority of showers associated with the cool front have now moved offshore, and for inland areas this probably is the end of rainfall for today. However, for coastal areas a chance of showers will linger for much of today, even as skies turn partly sunny. Highs will likely reach the mid-80s this afternoon. Winds will be from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. This should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 60s tonight outside of the urban core of Houston, which will be a touch warmer. This is not “cold” weather by any means, but as we get deeper into May fronts become more scarce. As fronts become weaker they are best enjoyed outdoors during the morning and evening hours.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly sunny day with moderately drier air. Expect highs in the mid-80s and light northeasterly winds. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a bit warmer.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

High pressure will build somewhat during the second half of the week, leading to partly to mostly sunny weather with warm temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Humidity rebounds as well. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 70s in Houston. This is not summer yet, but we’re approaching its outskirts.

Saturday and Sunday

We may start to see some more cloud cover this weekend (not sure), but high temperatures should still solidly remain in the upper 80s. Lows will remain muggy, likely increasing to the mid-70s. After Monday Houston’s rain chances will be near zero this week, but they may start to creep back up by Sunday afternoon or evening. Anyway, most outdoor activities should be fine this weekend if you’re prepared to sweat.

Next week

Most likely Houston will remain on the warm and muggy side next week, with the change being that rain chances likely return at some point.