Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss a shift from very warm temperatures this morning to something decidedly nicer over the next 10 days. Also, it’s probably going to rain today. How disruptive will that be for Election Day voters?

Another bold prediction

The temperature this morning is absurdly warm for early November. As of 6 am, the air temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has only fallen to 74 degrees, which is just a single degree off of Houston’s all-time record for highest minimum temperature on this date, set just two years ago. With dewpoints nearly matching air temperatures, it is just super sticky outside.

A little more than two weeks ago I made a bold prediction, that Houston was done with 90-degree days in 2026. And I was correct. Even though we got close the last couple of days, with 88-degree readings at Bush Intercontinental Airport, we haven’t gotten back into the 90s. And after today, with a robust cold front that is the first of several on the way, we assuredly won’t.

And so I am going to press my luck a little bit with a second prognostication. This prediction is actually a little riskier, but I am going to say that this morning is Houston’s final morning in the 70s for the rest of the year. That is, every night will be in the 60s or lower for the remainder of 2026. This prediction is far from a guarantee, to be clear. But I don’t see any really “warm” nights in the next 10 days, and we really do seem to be entering a fall-like pattern that is going to hang around.

Tuesday

So it’s a big day in Houston. We’ve got a nice cold front blowing in, and it’s Election Day. Will it be safe to go to the polls? Mostly, it should be just fine. As of this morning we have some showers and thunderstorms developing well northwest of our area, over the Brazos Valley. These storms should move into Harris and Montgomery counties around noon-ish, and the peak time for showers and thunderstorms looks to be from 1 to 3 pm today, or during the early afternoon hours. (In some locations the rain may get intense for a little bit during the early-to-mid afternoon hours). Drier air will move in during the late afternoon and evening hours, and this should end the threat of rain. Most locations will pick up 0.5 inch of rain or less, but a few bullseyes could quickly receive 1 to 2 inches today. I don’t expect too much severity in the way of damaging winds.

As for temperatures, I expect much of Houston to warm into the low-to-mid 80s today, with temperatures at about 70 degrees by sunset, and lows in the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

It’s gonna be a beauty: This will be a sunny day with highs in the 70s, and moderate northerly winds in the vicinity of 5 to 10 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

The onshore flow resumes later on Wednesday, and this should allow for highs to push back up to around 80 degrees on Thursday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and a bit more humidity. There is also a decent chance of rain on Thursday or Thursday night, with lows likely in the mid-60s.

Friday

With the arrival of another front we should see mostly sunny skies on Friday with highs in the 70s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

There is a chance of some light to moderate rain on Saturday or Saturday evening due to a somewhat unsettled pattern overhead. The details of this are yet to come, I’m afraid, as there is not great agreement in the models. Right now the National Weather Service is predicting a 20 percent chance of showers on Saturday, but that may be too low. Anyway, I am confident that we are going to see the ongoing influx of cooler air this weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday, accordingly, should only reach the lower 70s. By Monday morning I could see lows in Houston bottom out at around 50 degrees, with temperatures in the 40s for some outlying areas.

Next week

Most of next week looks pretty mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to start the week, and maybe lower 60s later during the week. I don’t see much in the way of rain chances until later in the week, and even then, who really knows. We’ve waited a long time for this kind of fall-like weather, so get outside and enjoy it!

In brief: Sunday’s high temperatures came to within 1 degree of the city’s all time high. Relief is on the way with a cold front on Tuesday, and for now it appears as though this front will not be particularly disruptive to Election Day activities.

A steamy Sunday

Let’s be honest, the first day of November did not feel a lot like the first day of November. Sunday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 88 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies and high pressure. This brought Houston to within 1 degree of its all-time high for November 1, 89 degrees. The city has never recorded a 90-degree day in November.

We should see a few more clouds today, so most of the region, instead of reaching the mid- to upper-80s should see highs in the low- to mid-80s. Tuesday will be similarly warm and muggy before the arrival of a cold front. After this frontal passage, and another surge of drier air, Houston should experience fall-like weather through the weekend and into next week. Is anyone ready for it to start feeling like the holidays outside?

Monday

We are starting out muggy this morning, with temperatures well above normal. After some patchy fog clears away we should be left with partly sunny skies today. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s across the region, with winds from the southeast at about 10 mph, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon. Winds continue with anomalously warm temperatures tonight, only falling to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Election Day

Tuesday is Election Day for the U.S. Midterms. If you haven’t voted early already, what can you expect for polling place conditions? At this time we don’t expect the cold front to blow in with a single line of strong thunderstorms and severe weather, such as damaging winds. Rather, beginning during the mid- to later morning hours we should see a broken line, or broad area, of showers and thunderstorms sagging down into Houston from the northwest. These showers should persist into the early evening hours. In terms of accumulations most areas should pick up 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, so flooding does not look to be a concern. In short, while some rain is likely on Election Day, overall conditions do not look particularly disruptive. So get out and vote!

As for temperatures, I think a lot of the area will reach the lower 80s. Drier air will start to arrive later in the afternoon, with gusty winds from the northwest (gusts perhaps reaching up to about 25 mph). Lows by early Wednesday should drop into the upper 50s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These should be partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s in Houston. Low temperatures for inland regions could fall into the lower 50s. We’ll also see comfortable, lower humidity levels. Rain chances each day will be on the order of about 10 percent. It’s going to be really nice, y’all.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point I think we’ll probably see another front, of some sort, this weekend. This may lead to some slight rain chances on Saturday, but that definitely remains to be determined. Highs on Saturday should be in the 70s, with lows on Saturday night perhaps dropping down to around 50 degrees. Sunday looks to be mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s. We have an outside chance at a night in the 40s in Houston.

Next week

Most of next week should bring highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Did I mention it was going to start feeling like real fall weather around here soon?

In brief: Houston will see slightly lower humidity today before atmospheric moisture ramps up on Friday and Saturday. Will this turn into showers and thunderstorms? We’ll definitely have our chances, especially on Saturday, but rains look pretty hit or miss. Better chances come Tuesday with a really sweet fall front.

Saturday rains?

There are a lot of outdoor events in Houston this weekend. Halloween comes on Saturday, of course, along with the large downtown celebration Scream on the Green Friday night, and Boo on the Boardwalk in Kemah on Friday and Saturday. Additionally there is the Wings Over Houston Airshow on Saturday and Sunday at Ellington Airport, and so much more. All of that to say, there is a lot riding on the rain forecast for this weekend.

We are seeing some modestly drier air move into the Houston region today, and this will hang around through Friday morning. After this we will start to see increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere. This will increase humidity levels as well as support the potential for rain showers. There will lead to the possibility of scattered, light showers on Friday.

Moisture levels will peak on Saturday, and with a series of disturbances moving through we will have the potential for more widespread showers, and possibly some thunderstorms. This activity will be pretty hit or miss, in that probably only about half of the region will see any precipitation. And amounts will be modest for most locations, probably a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. This shower activity should start to wane by Saturday afternoon, in time for trick-or-treating on Saturday evening. Sunday should be rain free.

Thursday

Temperatures have fallen to around 60 degrees this morning for parts of the area, thanks to the inflow of slightly drier air. This should lead to a partly sunny day, with highs in the lower 80s. This will be the last day with modestly lower humidity until next Tuesday or so, when a much stronger front pushes through. Rain chances are near zero with the drier air. Lows tonight will likely drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Saturday

As discussed above, we’ll see some decent (although far from overpowering) rain chances during this period. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on both days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour will be in the upper 70s, with plenty of humidity. Nights will only drop into the upper 60s.

Sunday and Monday

These will be partly sunny and rather warm days, with highs in the mid-80s for the region and muggy air. If you’re ready for Houston to feel like fall, read on.

Tuesday and beyond

At some point on Tuesday a genuine fall cold front is going to move through the area. If we are lucky, and I am hopeful we will be, there will be a decent shot of rain (perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches in total) with the frontal passage, possibly in the form of some thunderstorms. Anyway, large chunks of Houston could really use some rain. Following the front’s passage I think we’ll see mostly sunny conditions through the weekend, with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should be really, really nice.

In brief: Houston’s forecast finally has some healthy rain chances in it, which marks a notable change from the last several weeks (months for some locations). We also look ahead to notably cooler weather arriving in Houston about one week from today.

Wednesday

Houston broke its multi-day streak of sunny days on Tuesday with mostly cloudy conditions. Some areas even saw some light precipitation. These conditions combined to keep highs below 80 degrees for most of the region, including our official high of just 74 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Today will be somewhat similar, we think. We could see a smattering of rain showers again, and there will be some clouds. However I think there will be a little more sunshine, and this should help nudge high temperatures back up toward 80 degrees. Low temperatures will probably drop into the mid-60s tonight, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a straightforward forecast, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. With moderate winds turning easterly we should see an influx of some slightly drier air, and this will bring humidity levels down a bit. Lows on Thursday night should again drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

By mid-day Friday we should start to see rising moisture levels in the atmosphere again, and this will increase both humidity and rain chances. The most likely period of rain will come between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, with overall chances probably around 50 percent for most locations. Amounts do not look super impressive, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Highs on both days will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with warm nights in the upper 60s. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy, with a fair amount of humidity. I do expect the showers to end, or be ending by late Saturday afternoon or early evening, so you should see fair conditions in the upper 70s during the trick-or-treating hour.

Sunday and Monday

To end the weekend and start next week I expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-80s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel pretty muggy outside as well.

Later next week

By Tuesday or more probably Tuesday night we should see the arrival of the region’s next real cold front, and by all accounts this one should have some staying power. We may well see some showers and thunderstorms with the front’s passage. After this we are going to see significantly cooler weather, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and lows in the 50s or possibly even 40s for some inland locations. This cooler air could stick around through next weekend. All of the details on this front are to be determined still, but a significant pattern change does legitimately appear to be on the way.