Eric Berger

In brief: We discuss the (fairly slim) possibility of showers today, and then look ahead to a cold front on Friday that will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures into Houston. Saturday night will be the coldest night, and we think most of the region drops into the 50s.

Tuesday

The atmosphere above our region today is holding a lot of moisture, but conditions are such that we are unlikely to see too much lifting of air near the surface to higher levels. So what does this mean? It means we are going to see plenty of humidity today. We also might see some scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms, but I think the majority of this activity will remain offshore.

High temperatures today will reach about 90 degrees. We are not in record high territory here (today’s record high is 95 degrees) but we are nonetheless running several degrees warmer than is typical during mid-October. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with winds picking up a bit this afternoon to gust above 20 mph. Lows tonight, due to the muggy conditions, will not drop much beyond the upper 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

The good news is this: On Wednesday we are going to see some slightly drier air filter in from the east. Now, to be clear, it will still feel fairly humid. But not as bad as Tuesday. Additionally, this modestly drier air should allow nighttime temperatures to fall into the lower 70s. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should still reach about 90 degrees, however, with mostly sunny skies. Could we see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms? Yes, but overall chances are very low.

Friday

This should be a mostly sunny day. At some point, probably around noon-ish, a fairly strong front will move into the region. I think we are unlikely to see any precipitation with the front. Highs should still reach the upper 80s for most of the region, but by Friday afternoon or evening we should start to see the influx of much drier air. During this time frame we will also see gusty winds from the north, probably up to about 30 mph in Houston, and up to 40 mph at the immediate coastline. These winds will peak on Friday night before slowly settling down on Saturday.

Saturday

I think most of the Houston region will start out Saturday morning at about 60 degrees, give or take, with drastically lower humidity. Highs on Saturday afternoon will probably peak in the low- to mid-70s, before we see ideal conditions for cooling on Saturday night. How cold will things get? My best guess is that most of the Houston region (aside from Galveston Island and other coastal areas) will probably get into the 50s. There’s still some uncertainty, but I think a good range is somewhere between 50 and 60 degrees for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. By this time our winds will have died down some, but it’s still going to feel rather chilly outside for the first time in nearly half a year.

Sunday

I expect a sunny day with highs of around 80 degrees. As the onshore flow resumes, we will see a warmer night, although temperatures probably will still be in the 60s for most locations.

Next week

Warmer conditions will return with the southerly flow, with highs likely recovering into the mid- to upper-80s for much of next week, at least. We will also probably see some cloudy skies along with higher rain chances beginning Monday or Tuesday. Some areas (particularly southeast of Houston) have not have significant rain in many weeks. It would be welcome, for sure.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our region’s rain chances for today and Tuesday. Then we look ahead to fall’s first real front, which should arrive on Friday and set the stage for a fantastic weekend.

A brief taste of fall

Friday and Saturday mornings recorded low temperatures of 65 and 64 degrees, respectively, in Houston. But we still experienced high temperatures this weekend in the vicinity of 90 degrees—so this was sort of a teaser for fall. We are increasingly confident that a stronger front will push through toward the end of this week, likely on Friday, that will usher in cooler weather. If everything works out we might see highs in the 70s during the coming weekend, with lows in the 50s. Doesn’t that sound nice? It does. As always there remains some uncertainty in the details.

Monday and Tuesday

For now, however, the humidity is back. Dewpoints today will be solidly in the 70s, so the air is going to feel muggy. That also means there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to work with, and if this air at the surface can rise (no certainty give the profile of the atmosphere) we will see some daytime showers and thunderstorms in the region today. Overall chances are probably a little higher than 50 percent for areas west of I-45, and a little lower than 50 percent for areas east of I-45. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny with highs around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm, in the mid- to upper 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Some slightly drier air will work its way into our region on Wednesday and Thursday, and this will (very slightly) bring down the overall humidity levels. It should also end any chance of rain. So where does that leave us? With sunny skies and highs of around 90 degrees. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday night should drop into the lower 70s. Winds, during the afternoon and evening hours, will be a bit gusty, from the south.

Friday

This will be another sunny day. At some point on Friday the aforementioned cold front is likely to move into the area. Since there won’t be that much atmospheric moisture to work with, I don’t think we’ll see much (if any) rain with the front. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 80s, probably, but where in the 80s will depend on the timing of the front. Lows on Friday night will probably drop into the 60s, but again, this will depend on the timing and overall strength of the front. I expect gusty northerly winds with the front’s arrival on Friday and Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

These look to be gorgeous days, with sunny skies and highs likely in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and low humidity. Saturday night looks to be the coolest night of this front, with lows dropping into the 50s, probably, for almost the entire region. (Again, how cool will depend on factors we cannot entirely predict as yet). Sunday night is probably in the 60s.

I know a few thousand riders will be participating in the Bike Around the Bay this weekend. You should have mild temperatures, as noted above, but what about winds? Most of Saturday will probably have winds of 15 mph or so from the north, with higher gusts. Sunday should have much calmer winds, probably turning more easterly.

Next week

Temperatures and humidity will be on the upswing early next week as the onshore flow resumes. There are also some hints in the models that we could see some much needed rainfall beginning as soon as Monday. The bottom line is that it won’t feel much like fall again starting Monday, but with fall’s first real front in the books you know there will be more to come.

WANTED: Fall-like weather. Last seen in Houston sometime around April. Suspect is known to bring crisp mornings, low humidity, and open-window weather. Reward offered for immediate return. No questions asked.

Fall Day, where art thou?

Here at Space City Weather we are as desperate (if not more so!) than most of our readers for a real taste of fall. The definition we’ve settled on for “fall” over the years is a low temperature of 65 degrees, which we then declare to be the Houston holiday of “Fall Day.” It is a great and glorious day. Now such a temperature is not cold, by any means. But after a long, hot summer it can be considered pleasantly cool evening.

So far this season our “coolest” night came on September 26, when the low dropped to 69 degrees. Our first “taste” of fall is running late this year. Very late, in fact. Dating back to 1900, the average date of Houston’s first 65-degree (or lower) temperature after August 1 in a calendar year is September 15. Not this year. In fact, only nine years have had a later “Fall Day” than this year. The latest 65-degree day in Houston, since 1900, came in 1904 when poor Houstonians had to wait until October 13. That’s next Tuesday.

It is possible that we’ll see a 65-degree reading at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Friday or Saturday morning this weekend, with drier air helping to cool down nights some. It will be close, but also fleeting with muggy nights returning next week. I do have some hope for a stronger front about 8 to 10 days from now. More on that below.

Thursday

It is warm and rather humid this morning, with temperatures only falling to the lower 70s. Highs today will climb into the lower 90s, with sunny skies. Rain chances are near zero. However, falling on the back side of Hurricane Isaias, Houston will start to see a more northerly flow later today, and that will usher in some drier air. As a result lows for much of the region, outside of the urban core, should see temperatures fall into the mid- to upper-60s tonight.

A word for my fellow runners. If you’re training for the Houston Marathon this year—and the event keeps getting more popular, having sold out in July—we finally have some decent weather for longer runs. Temperatures won’t be cold by any means, but I’m hopeful that both Friday and Saturday mornings will see dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of Houston. If you’re out running before, at, or just after sunrise you should be able to escape summer-like humidity. It should, dare I say it, feel almost pleasant? Anyway, best of luck with your training.

Friday and Saturday

As mentioned we’ll see an influx of drier air on both of these days. Expect highs ranging from the upper 80s to about 90 degrees, and cooler nights in the 60s for most locations. In concert with modestly lower humidity, these will be nicer days, with pretty great mornings and evenings. Rain chances remain very low, perhaps in the 10 percent range.

Sunday

Humidity will be a bit higher on Sunday, with highs of around 90 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows may warm a little bit as a result.

Next week

Muggier conditions return. Most of next week should bring mostly sunny skies, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid-70s. This is pretty warm for October, but I continue to have some hope that by Friday (or thereabouts) we could see the arrival of a genuine fall front. This could also bring some rain with it. I don’t want to offer any details or false confidence, but I am hopeful we’ll see a meaningful pattern change by next weekend.

Hurricane Isaias

We have our first Atlantic hurricane of the season, with Isaias forming on Wednesday evening in the Gulf. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast, and will likely make landfall in southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane on Friday night. There are no real implications for Texas (aside from the drier air discussed above), but all of the typical hurricane threats are in play for parts of the southern United States. Matt has much more on those implications over at The Eyewall.

In brief: Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the southern Gulf, and it has a really good chance to become the season’s first hurricane. It is bound for the northern Gulf coast. This should usher in a few days of drier air into Houston this weekend.

A Gulf hurricane?

In the modern record, an era dating back to World War II when there has been aircraft reconnaissance and later continuous satellite coverage, there has never been an Atlantic season without a hurricane. Prior to this there have been two years, 1907 and 1914, in which no hurricanes were recorded. However, that does not definitively mean there were no hurricanes. Before aircraft flew across the Atlantic, our records almost certainly missed hurricanes over the open ocean.

So far this year, with El Niño reaching historic strength, the Atlantic has produced several tropical storms but no systems that have reached hurricane strength. But with the formation of Isaias in the southern Gulf that is likely to change. There is a high likelihood that Isaias will become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane over the warm Gulf waters before tracking north toward a landfall somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday.

Be sure to check The Eyewall for full and ongoing coverage of Isaias. Along the upper Texas coast we may see tides running a foot or two higher, and some rough seas offshore. But mostly we should see some modestly drier on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Wednesday and Thursday

Today and Thursday will be warm (hot?) and sunny days, with high temperatures in the lower 90s for most of the region, away from the coast. Rain chances are essentially zero. Nights will be warm, with lows generally in the low- to mid-70s. On Thursday afternoon we should start to see modestly stronger winds from the northeast (on the backside of Isaias), and this will bring us some moderately drier air for a few days.

Friday and Saturday

These will be mostly sunny days with a slightly cooler northeasterly flow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For areas along and south of I-10 there will be a slight chance of showers on Friday afternoon, but probably only in the 10 to 20 percent range. Nights will be pleasant, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, and in the 60s for outlying areas.

Sunday and Monday

The second half of the weekend, and Columbus Day, will see continued mostly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees. Humidity levels will recover a bit, so our nighttime temperatures will rebound into the mid-70s.

Rest of next week

With the return of the onshore flow we could see some decent rain chances as early as Monday or Tuesday of next week, and I think we’ll see a healthy 30 percent chance (or so) on a daily basis on most days. Highs will continue in the vicinity of the upper 80s to lower 90s. I’m still looking at the possibility of a stronger fall front later next week, but this is no sure thing so don’t bring out your box of sweaters just yet.