Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the looming El Niño, and what it means for Houston if it becomes a “super” El Niño this winter. We also discuss our sunny days heading into the weekend, and the potential for rain on Sunday and next week.

Here comes El Niño

It is not quite here yet, but in the coming weeks (perhaps even days) we are likely to see temperatures in the equatorial Pacific flip over to El Niño conditions, which is defined by average temperatures in a certain area of the Pacific reaching 0.5 degrees C above usual conditions. (Conversely, La Niña occurs when temperatures in this region fall 0.5 degrees below normal). We experience a handful of El Niños a decade, so it’s not a huge deal. But there has been a lot of buzz about this particular El Niño because it is expected to become unusually strong (as defined by 2.0 degrees C or higher above normal). Here’s a look at the latest spread in the model data, released this week:

Now, what to make of this? If the bottom legend is confusing, the letters simply represent three months, so when El Niño is forecast to peak it says “OND,” which means October, November, and December of this year. So about four or five months from now. I believe there will be three major impacts for the greater Houston region from El Niño over the coming year, so let’s discuss them.

First up is a beneficial one. By August and September of this year we are likely to see a rapidly strengthening El Niño. You may remember in our Atlantic hurricane season outlook published last week, we spoke about El Niño’s likely increase of wind shear in the Atlantic, which should help reduce the overall number of named storms this year. So by and large, that’s beneficial.

Secondly, depending on when El Niño occurs, it has widely variable impacts on precipitation around the world. For the southern United States, including Texas, the impacts are most pronounced during the winter and early spring months. During this time frame El Niño increases the likelihood of precipitation.

So again, for Texas, this is probably beneficial. We typically don’t get flooding conditions in the winter months, so additional rainfall (or snow?!?) from El Niño probably won’t be a bad thing. And we’re not talking huge changes here. It might be that Houston receives 4.5 inches of rain next February instead of 3.5, or something like that.

As you can see from the initial chart above, El Niño may start to wane next spring, and if history is any guide it probably will start to peter out heading into next summer. However, we have often seen something of a temperature ‘hangover’ following strong El Niños. I am speculating a little bit here, but my guess is that as a result we see a spike in global temperatures that lingers into next summer, and we could see some record-breaking heat in Texas at that time. But that’s a long way off. I can’t even tell you whether it’s going to rain this coming Sunday for certain. Speaking of which, let’s get to the forecast.

Wednesday

With high pressure more or less in place for the next several days Houston will remain in a mostly sunny, steamy pattern. For us that means temperatures generally in the low 90s, with slightly hotter conditions possible inland, and slightly cooler daytime conditions near the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, with just a very slight (10 or 20 percent) chance of a brief shower or downpour. Low temperatures may briefly fall below 80 degrees in Houston, but the reprieve won’t last long. Winds will generally be from the south at about 10 mph, but may gust up to about 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

The rest of the week is likely to see similar conditions, so basically it will feel pretty much like typical June weather out there. Get your sunshine on, Houston.

Sunday

At some point this weekend the high pressure influencing our weather will shift further to the south, opening up our region to the potential for more widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Now I still expect mostly sunny skies on Sunday, but our chances for precipitation will be on the increase. At this point I expect about a 50 percent chance, give or take, however it is possible this number shifts higher (or lower). I don’t expect anything too crazy in terms of accumulations, but given that Houston hosts a World Cup game on Sunday afternoon, we’ll continue to watch for the likelihood of rain before, during, and after the game given all of the festivities around town.

Next week

For much of next week we likely will see partly to mostly cloudy days, with an increased chance of rain for several days. A weak front will move into Texas, but it probably (although not certainly) will die before making its way into Houston. Regardless, after this week’s sunshine a somewhat rainier pattern returns to help keep everything green.

In brief: In today’s post we explain why June in Houston is about to turn sunnier and a bit hotter, and look ahead to conditions this weekend. Also, did you know there was a fairly large earthquake in the Gulf on Monday?

June so far

This month, to date, has seen somewhat cooler than normal weather, especially during the day. More than half of the days have not see high temperatures rise above the mid-80s in the city, and every June day so far has recorded at least a trace of rain in most parts of the area. This has kept conditions feeling slightly spring-like rather that more summer-like.

But beginning today, and probably well into the weekend, we are going to see more typical June-like weather with more daytime sunshine and somewhat hotter temperatures. Each day going forward, away from the coast, is likely to see highs ranging from 90 degrees to the lower 90s, with a smattering of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. In short, June weather is going to be doing what June weather does in Houston.

Tuesday

Although atmospheric moisture levels remain high, increasing high pressure will influence our weather in the days to come. It won’t entirely clamp down on rain chances, but it should diminish coverage to fairly isolated to scattered showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. Overall rain chances are likely about 20 percent. Highs will reach about 90 degrees this afternoon for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light from the south before increasing a little this afternoon. Skies should be clear tonight, but lows likely will only briefly reach down into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not a whole lot changes for the rest of the work week. Highs may tick up a degree or two, but inland areas should still be in the vicinity of the low 90s, with plenty of humidity and sunshine. We will continue to see a low-end chance of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours, driven by the sea breeze. Nights will remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend, at least to start, is likely to see a continuation of this warm pattern, with scattered to isolated showers during the afternoon. However most of our model guidance indicates that high pressure may back off somewhat by next Sunday or Monday. For now I expect mostly sunny conditions on Sunday with scattered rain showers, but that could change to slightly more rain coverage depending on the timing of high pressure easing away. Temperatures will continue to be warm and humid, regardless.

Next week

At this vantage point, at least, the first half of next week appears likely to bring better rain chances. Whether this is 40 percent each day or 70 percent is something that we’ll have to iron out as we get closer. It’s June so you can expect continued muggy weather regardless.

Eye on the Gulf

Hah, I bet you thought I was going to talk about the tropics here, didn’t you? Well, you would be wrong. Things look pretty quiet over the next 10 days in the Atlantic, with only the very slight possibility of some minor mischief in the Bay of Campeche. What I actually wanted to mention is that there was an earthquake in the Gulf on Monday. At M6.1 it was fairly strong, and by some measures it may be the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the Gulf. It occurred off the northwest tip of Cuba, and was felt as far away as in Florida. I don’t think it’s a harbinger of anything ominous, but the Earthquake Insights newsletter has some interesting speculation about its cause.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the amount of rainfall Houston received over the last two months, and show how it has completely wiped a drought off the map. Also, we look ahead to a sunnier weak with considerably less rain. Also, the World Cup starts here this weekend!

April and May showers brought an end to the drought

Over the course of the last two months, and culminating on Saturday, the greater Houston region has received beneficial rains. Although the precipitation put a damper on some outdoor activities, we managed to get a large amount of rainfall without too many serious flooding issues. That’s never easy in Houston. How much rain? Since the first week of April most of the region has received 150 to 200 percent of normal rainfall totals, which translates to 12 to 18 inches of rain for most.

Perhaps you don’t recall, but following a dry-ish winter and start to spring, the entire metro area (not to mention surrounding counties) had fallen into a drought. This ranged from a “moderate” drought in central Harris County to an ” extreme” drought for most of our surrounding counties. This boded ill as Houston faced the warmer months of late spring and summer. But then, of course, the last two months happened. You can use the slider below to compare our drought situation at the end of March to where we were at the beginning of June.

Now, I’m given to understand that not everyone likes rain. In fact, after our most recent outbreak of showers I’ve seen some people saying they’re sick and tired of the rain, and when is it going to get sunny already? Well, if that’s you, read on.

Monday

Clouds will linger today, along with a slight chance of showers, before high pressure settles in to assert control over our weather for much of the rest of the week. Accordingly high temperatures may only reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees later today. We are seeing a few light showers near thew coast this morning, and there’s the potential for some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for areas north of I-10. But overall rain chances are probably only about 20 percent. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with gusts this afternoon from 15 to 20 mph. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday through Friday

This week will bring fairly similar conditions through the forecast period, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s, and overnight lows in the upper 70s to only around 80 degrees right along the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny each day, with a warm southerly flow. Winds will be a bit gusty, from the south. As for rain chances, they’re not zero, but on a daily basis they’re not much higher than 10 or 20 percent. This week really will feel summer-like for Houston, so buckle up.

Saturday and Sunday

Houston’s weather will remain warm and humid this weekend, and we may see highs tip up a little bit further, generally topping out in the low- to mid-90s. It appears as though high pressure may back off a little bit, allowing for maybe a 20 percent chance of showers on Saturday, and perhaps a 30 or 40 percent likelihood on Sunday with a few more clouds. We shall see.

Speaking of this weekend, soccer (futbol) fans will well know that the first World Cup game in Houston comes on Sunday, June 14, when Germany faces Curaçao (a country of 155,000 people—imagine League City taking on Germany in soccer). Anyway, Matt has written a special weather post for World Cup visitors that we’re going to be publishing later this morning, so be sure and share that with anyone you know coming in from out of town. The games are indoors at Reliant Stadium, of course, but the weather for festivities before and after Sunday’s game looks fairly typical for mid-June.

Next week

At some point early next week, perhaps later on Sunday or Monday, we are likely to see somewhat better rain chances return to the region. But since this is a week or so out, I don’t have great confidence in the forecast.

In brief: Due to wet soils and the potential for slow moving storms, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for the Houston region through Saturday evening. Please be weather aware and mindful of the potential for high water on roads.

Good morning! We hope everyone’s weekend is off to a good start. Looking at the radar at about 8:30 am CT, things are largely quiet with the exception of a few showers over Galveston Island. However with a moisture-laden atmosphere, we expect to see the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this morning and lasting through the afternoon hours.

To be clear, rivers, creeks, and bayous within the Houston metro area are all within their banks. However for much of the region, particularly central Houston, our grounds are saturated such that any additional rainfall today will quickly run into streets. Therefore we are likely to see street flooding develop more quickly than normal.

In terms of rainfall, for most of Houston, things will be just fine later today. However atmospheric conditions are supportive of heavy rainfall, and today we expect some storm motions to be slow. Therefore whereas most of the region may see a few tenths of an inch of rainfall, parts of the area may see 3 or more inches. The best chances for heavy rainfall today appear to be in Harris County, but the suburbs are also at risk.

Given all of this, we think there is a decent chance of some street flooding (i.e. low-lying roads, some feeder roads, etc.) today where rains are heaviest. Please be weather aware this afternoon and take more time during rain storms. Conditions should dry out overnight, but some additional storms are possible on Sunday, albeit not to the extent we think the Houston region will experience today.