Eric Berger

In brief: The threat of storms and heavy rainfall today in Houston has diminished. But it’s still going to be an unpleasant day outdoors with intermittent showers, chilly air, and strong easterly winds.

It is not a particularly nice Sunday outside this morning. The temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport about an hour before sunrise was just 50 degrees, with light rain, and easterly winds gusting up to 28 mph. For many parts of Houston, conditions will not improve much throughout the day.

However, the forecast could be worse. There were some scenarios in which the coastal low today brought heavy rainfall into Houston. Although there remains the potential for some bullseyes of 3 inches or more for southern Brazoria County and other coastal areas, by and large the majority of the Houston region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain today, which should be totally manageable. The heaviest rain, and we are talking 6 to 10 inches, now looks set to fall well offshore today. Moreover, the threat of severe thunderstorms is lower in the Houston region than previously anticipated.

So yes, it’s going to be chilly today. Many areas north of Interstate 10 may well not climb out of the 50s. (Areas further south will get into the 60s today). There will be on-and-off rain showers from sunrise through about 9 pm or so this evening. And we will see strong winds from the east and northeast, gusting up to 30 or even 35 mph later today. But it could be worse!

After the rains end tonight, Monday should be a partly sunny day with highs in the upper 50s. Expect another chilly night on Monday night before we start warming somewhat this week. After today’s gloomy weather, if you’re missing the sunshine, you can circle Tuesday on your calendar for plenty of that.

We’ll be back in the morning with a full forecast. And also, thank you to everyone who has supported our ongoing, annual fundraiser!

In brief: Following a period of idyllic weather in Houston, our atmospheric pattern turns more unsettled tonight and especially on Sunday. Coastal areas, in particular, could see heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Pattern change ahead

After a few days of gorgeous, clear weather, an upper-level system will move into the region later tonight. This will set the stage for a rainy and potentially stormy Sunday. The most impactful weather will occur during the daytime on Sunday, from sunrise to sunset, but Houston may see some slight showers beforehand.

Saturday and Saturday night

Houston will see partly to mostly sunny conditions today, with highs likely pushing into the upper 60s. Some light showers will be possible later this afternoon, or evening in Houston, but I don’t believe these will be too impactful. Coastal areas, particularly to the south of Houston near Matagorda Bay, may see some thunderstorms, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night

The atmosphere will turn more conducive to rainfall and storms on Sunday as moisture levels increase and a series of disturbances move through. For most of Houston this will be manageable, with rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. There will also be the potential of thunderstorms in the city. Overall, this is not the best setup for severe weather over Houston, but closer to the coast and some warmer air I have some concerns.

These conditions should support the potential for greater rainfall totals over coastal counties such as Brazoria and Galveston, where 2 to 4 inches of rain may be possible with some higher bullseyes. As noted above, the atmospheric background for severe weather (most likely strong thunderstorms) will also be higher in these areas.

The threat of inclement weather should end by Sunday evening or so, as a colder air mass begins moving into the region but a few light showers could persist overnight. High temperatures on Monday should top out in the 50s, if you can believe it, before we begin to warm up next week.

Matt and I will be watching things closely in case we need to issue a flood stage warning for Sunday in the Houston region. If we do so, it probably would be for coastal areas, out of an abundance of caution. If we decide the pull the trigger, we will update the site this evening.

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In brief: We are going to have two splendid, sunny days ahead of the weekend, when we may see some fairly widespread showers on Sunday across the Houston region. In today’s post we also offer a way, way too early forecast for the week of Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving

We are just starting to come within the outer limits of our forecast models for the week of Thanksgiving, and the holiday itself, which comes in just two weeks’ time. In the coming of days we will experience a couple of fronts, but by the middle of next week we should see high pressure holding sway. This will push daytime temperatures into the upper 70s, probably, with mild nights in the 60s.

About 10 days from now, the most likely outcome is that the region experiences another, somewhat stronger cold front. This would set the stage for a cooler Thanksgiving week, with nights in the 50s or possibly 40s, which would be our coldest nights of the season. This cooler weather would probably persist into Thanksgiving Day (highs in the 60s?), providing a festive feeling for the holiday. As for rain chances, it’s all a little too fuzzy at this point.

Should we feel confident in this forecast? Given that it’s so far out, probably not too much. But there is decent agreement across the ensembles of several models, so I think it’s a reasonable possibility. Or who knows, maybe this forecast ends up looking like it was written by turkeys.

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Thursday and Friday

We’ve been saying for awhile these two days are going to be splendid, and Mother Nature is indeed delivering. With a weak front moving in overnight, we are going to enjoy drier air, sunny skies, and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low- to mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Really, it does not get much better than this.

Saturday

This should also be a pleasant fall day, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. However during the daytime on Saturday we’ll start to see increasing southerly winds, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. This is one sign of increasing atmospheric moisture levels, which will set the stage for rain showers. These may begin on Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday morning.

Sunday

We are likely to see widespread showers on Sunday with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Showers will be most likely during the afternoon, probably, but could occur throughout the day. I expect much of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although at this point I do not believe we will see much, if any, severe weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-70s, before the arrival of the front later on Sunday or Sunday night pushes temperatures into the 50s by Monday morning.

Next week

With high pressure in place after the front, we should see highs in the 60s to start next week with partly sunny skies. Eventually, during the second half of next week, we should see the aforementioned warming trend with highs pushing into the 70s, and possibly upper 70s. And then we’re getting close to the week of Thanksgiving, which we discussed at the outset of today’s post.

In brief: Good morning, and we hope you have a meaningful Veterans Day. In today’s post we discuss the significant rainfall picked up by the Houston region to start the week; and we have some good news if you’re tired of the dreary weather.

A pair of dreary days, but that’s OK

The rain is not for everyone—there have been a few grumbles in my house this week about gray skies and precipitation—but the dreary start to this week has provided some welcome relief to Houston-area soils. Much of the region is in a drought, and our coastal counties including Galveston and Brazoria have slipped into an extreme drought after a very dry late summer and start to fall.

The rains over the last couple of days won’t end the drought. But at this time of year a bit of rain goes a long way with the shorter days, lower sun angle, and cooler temperatures. Over the last two days the drier parts of our region, along and south of Interstate 10, generally picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain. The widespread showers mostly came in the form of gentle rain, although we definitely had some rumbling thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper-level system passed nearby.

These showers were over-performers as at the start of the week I would have predicted maybe a few tenths of an inch of rain, at most, over Monday and Tuesday. But I’m definitely not complaining. And hey, if you’re sick of the rain it largely ends this morning. And we’ll have wall-to-wall sunshine and generally gorgeous weather on Thursday and Friday. So this week Mother Nature has a little something for everyone.

Wednesday

Rain showers have largely exited to the east, but we may see a few sporadic showers pop up later this morning on Veterans Day. Call it about a 10 or 20 percent chance. Skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy today, however, with moderately sticky humidity. Expect highs in the upper 70s. Winds will shift to come from the north tonight as a cold front moves in, bringing drier air Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of splendid days with mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the upper 70s. Thursday could be a little breezy, with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph, but this front does not appear to be too in-your-face in terms of winds. Lows on both nights should drop into the mid-50s in Houston proper, with upper 40s possible for outlying areas. This, for my money, is the best of fall weather we see down here.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see partly to mostly sunny skies as well. Expect highs in the mid-70s with modest humidity levels. However by Saturday afternoon or (more likely) Saturday evening or overnight we will see the return of some rain chances due to increasing moisture levels in the upper atmosphere. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

We’ve still got a fair bit of uncertainty about conditions on Sunday. Highs will likely be in the low 70s with a mix of clouds and sunshine. I think we’ll see about a 50 percent chance of rain, but again I don’t feel super confident in the details. If you have outdoor plans, give us another day or so to pin down this forecast with a little more accuracy. At some point (on Sunday night, maybe?) a cold front is going to push into the region and this may be the spark for some additional showers. For now I don’t anticipate any severe weather with the front.

Next week

In the wake of this front, generally, we can expect a couple of cooler days with highs likely in the 60s and lows in the 50s. We probably will see some sort of warming trend heading toward next weekend. Maybe I’ll be brave tomorrow and push out a way, way too early forecast for Thanksgiving week in Houston.

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