Eric Berger

In brief: We’ve (obviously) been following the forecast for Saturday morning closely, given our Fall Day celebration. At this point we’ve made the decision to go ahead with the gathering. This update explains why, and how you can participate.

Let’s start this post with a fun fact: Today is actually the 10th anniversary of Space City Weather. No kidding. You can read the very first post right here. I started the site on a Friday afternoon because I was concerned about storms that weekend. And here we are 10 years later, same week in October, concerned about weekend storms. It’s funny how history rhymes, if it does not outright repeat.

Speaking of those storms, I have to tell you, Matt and I have been agonizing over the forecast because we have our big Fall Day event planned for Saturday morning. We’ve spent a fair amount of money preparing some special tote bags and t-shirts for this day, and Reliant has invested a lot for a great setup of Midtown Park. It is not easy to delay or reschedule. So for now, we are planning to move ahead with the celebration.

Why? Our primary concern is a line of storms that will move through Houston on Saturday. At this time we think they probably will clear the area by 9 am, but we are not certain. There is a risk that the line moves a little bit slower. So we are going to watch things closely, and if we need to postpone our Fall Day event, we will do so. This will be clearly communicated right here, and on our social channels if the need arises. We are absolutely going to prioritize safety. But we think there’s a path forward to having a great event on Saturday.

Here’s what else we want you to know:

Timing: We’ll be at Midtown Park from 10am to noon, and folks are welcome to swing by whenever there’s a break in the weather. If we need to stay a bit longer to make sure we connect with everyone, we’re happy to do that. Rain gear and smiles encouraged!

Setup: Although the main line of storms should be through, there may be some lingering showers. So we’re shifting as much as possible to the covered stage area of the park and adding a few tents for extra coverage. All the fun stuff (giveaways, kid pumpkin art station, face painting, 360 photo booth) will still be there. Chalk wall, lawn games, etc. will likely go away given the weather. And of course, we’ll have free totes (to the first 100 guests) and special 10th anniversary shirts available for purchase.

Parking: There is a parking garage on Travis, next to the park, that will have ample space and I’ve been told it will be free on Saturday morning. So this should not be an issue.

Thanks for your patience as we have worked through a difficult situation. The good news is that we have really hit a home run here by scheduling the event on October 25th, because now we can take credit for knocking out the region’s emerging drought. You’re welcome, everyone!

In brief: Today’s post discusses the rounds of rain (some heavy) that will come to Houston this weekend, likely bringing us much needed relief from an emerging drought. We are also increasingly confident in a fine, fall front next week.

Pattern change ahead

It has been a remarkably dry September and October in Houston, and we’re not talking about booze. Although we have had some weak fronts back door into the region, none have produced enough atmospheric disruption to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, that will change over the course of the coming week. We are going to see an initial front on Saturday that will bring a couple of rounds of storms, but not too much cooling. Then next week, probably in the vicinity of Wednesday, we are going to see a stronger front that seems unlikely to bring much rain, but will bring significant cooling into the area. If you’ve been waiting for rain, or fall, or both, you’re in luck!

Thursday

Today will be our last day with near-zero rain chances until next week, although we cannot rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with winds turning more east-southeast, we will see humidity levels rise from what we experienced on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s. A few far inland areas may push upward toward 90 degrees, and I’m going to be a little risky here and predict this is our last chance to hit that mark in the year 2025. Lows tonight will be warmer, only falling to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Friday will likely see mostly sunny skies to start, but then with building clouds during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall I still expect this activity to be fairly scattered. So if your plans include Friday Night Lights, the games may well get played. By Friday night we’ll want to keep an eye on conditions to our west. We expect a line of storms to form near the I-35 corridor in Central Texas around midnight, and then advance toward the Houston region overnight.

Saturday

The squall line mentioned above will probably—and bear in mind there remains uncertainty in this timing—push through the Houston metro area around dawn, perhaps in the 6 am to 9 am time frame. Some of these storms could be severe, with the threat of hail. But overall severe storms appear to be less of a threat than heavy rainfall. We need the rain, and it could come in bunches. We expect this line to move through and then to (maybe) be followed by a brief lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Careful readers will know we are planning Fall Day festivities from 10 am to Noon in Midtown Park on Saturday. I’ll be back later this morning with a word on our final decision about whether we are going to press ahead. So stay tuned.

Anyway, the front itself should drive another round of showers later on Saturday or Saturday night. All told we think the majority of the region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, but higher local amounts will be possible. Since our soils are so dry they should be able to absorb much of this rainfall, so flooding is not a major concern at this time. But we’ll be watching closely. Temperatures on Saturday should be in the 70s for the most part.

Sunday

Rain chances will be lower (but non-zero) on Sunday. Expect highs in the lower 80s with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 60s, with a bit of drier air.

Next week

The details are still a bit fuzzy, but I think we can expect highs in the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a front that will bring drier and cooler air. Anyone ready for lows in the 50s? Because I think that’s coming.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss rainfall amounts for this weekend, when we are likely to see our greatest totals in a quite some time. We also provide an update on our Fall Day celebration, and look ahead to a stronger front next week.

Eric, isn’t Fall Day on Saturday?

Yes, it is. Somehow, the “geniuses” who run Space City Weather scheduled Fall Day for Saturday October 25th, a day when the region has its best chance of widespread rain in quite literally months. The reality, of course, is that such events take a lot of planning (which Reliant has really been helping us with), including scheduling Midtown Park, ordering all sorts of things, and inviting a lot of different groups to come make the day special for everyone. So we selected October 25th earlier this summer.

So what are we going to do? For now we are still planning to hold Fall Day from 10 am to Noon CT on Saturday, pending the forecast. There remains a fair bit of uncertainty in the timing of the storms on Saturday (they could be pre-dawn, they could be mid-morning smack during Fall Day, or around noon or later). If the gathering poses any danger to people we are going to cancel it of course, but we want to wait a little while longer to make a final decision. Matt and I know better than anyone how forecasts can shift. Thanks for your interest and patience.

Wednesday

We should have held Fall Day today! It’s pleasant outside this morning, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 60s. With modest easterly winds throughout the day, humidity will remain low as high temperatures reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will start to creep back up overnight, so although inland areas probably will drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s, coastal areas may well be a bit warmer late tonight.

Thursday

As the onshore flow resumes we may see a few more clouds in the sky, and humidity will go up as well. Highs likely will crest in the mid-80s before a mild night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. There is a slight chance of showers near the coast.

Friday and Saturday

We should see some sunshine on Friday morning, but clouds will start to build later in the day. An upper-level low pressure system and an accompanying front at the surface will advance toward the area, and overall dynamics support the development of showers and thunderstorms to go along with it. The timing is our real point of uncertainty. Generally what I expect is scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night (highs in the 80s on Friday). At some point a line of storms will push through the area along with the surface front, but whether that happens earlier Saturday or later in the day, we just don’t know yet. But at some point we’re going to see moderate to heavy rainfall. Although totals will vary widely, most of the region should pick up 1 to 4 inches. We hope to have better details about all of this for you in tomorrow’s forecast update, when we begin to have improved high resolution data. Anyway, highs on Saturday will likely be in the 70s (at least we got that part of Fall Day correct, hah).

Sunday

Rain chances won’t go away during the second half of the weekend, but they should be decidedly lower than Saturday. Expect a high near 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs in the low- to mid-80s with muggier air before a stronger front arrives (Wednesday, maybe?) The details of this are still pretty fuzzy, but we can almost assuredly expect to see some much drier and colder air.

In brief: Houston’s weather has been largely unchanging in recent weeks, but that pattern is about to break. We expect widespread rain showers this weekend, and this will be our best chance of denting Houston’s emerging drought in a long time. We also are looking at the likelihood of fall-like weather later next week.

A forecaster’s lament

I have a love-hate relationship with boring weather in Houston. On one hand, it’s extremely easy to forecast conditions when you have high pressure sitting on top of your head in October. Basically, every day features sunny and warm-to-hot conditions, with warm nights. So yeah, it’s easy to be right. And who doesn’t like to be right?

However, it becomes pretty boring to write about that kind of a pattern every day (sometimes we must take drastic measures to relieve the tedium, like a GIF-based forecast). Moreover, as someone who lives in Houston, it is boring to experience the same weather every day, especially when we are supposed to be transitioning from summer to fall. Variety is the spice of life, and all that. Well, I’m here to tell you that this transition is happening finally, so buckle up.

Tuesday

We’re going to see another partly to mostly sunny day today, with high temperatures likely reaching 90 degrees for most of the region. (There’s a non-zero chance this is our final 90-degree day of 2025, but I don’t want to jinx anything so pretend I did not write that). A weak front will arrive later today, and it will bring a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. The best chances will be east and southeast of Houston, particularly in areas near Galveston Bay, this afternoon and early evening. The front will usher in some drier air, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny and pleasant day, with mostly dry air and highs of around 80 degrees. It’s not precisely clear how long the drier air will hold over Houston, and this means we have some uncertainty about how chilly Wednesday night will be. I’m going to be optimistic and say much of Houston drops to around 60 degrees by Thursday morning, but if our dewpoints rise more quickly, it’s going to be a more humid and warmer night.

Thursday

This should be another mostly sunny day, but highs will be a little warmer, likely in the mid-80s for most locations as the onshore flow resumes. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

An upper-level low pressure system will approach, and move through the region this weekend, and with abundant atmospheric moisture to tap it is going to bring our best chance of rain in many weeks. Friday should start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see building clouds during the afternoon. Late Friday night through Saturday night is when I expect to see the best chance of rain, with the potential for some thunderstorms. The entire region should see precipitation, and the models have become more bullish overnight. I’m projecting about 2 inches of rain for most people, but totals will vary widely and there is the potential for higher accumulations. Rain chances will fall on Sunday, perhaps to around 40 percent, before things clear out. The weekend will see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with mild nights near 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of our model guidance is still pointing toward the arrival of a fairly strong cold front by around next Wednesday or so. Would I etch this forecast in stone, since it is eight days out? No I would not. But I’m rather hopeful that truly fall-like weather is coming during the second half of next week. Details to come as our confidence increases.