Eric Berger

In brief: Houston finally feels like fall, and the colder weather will stick around into Saturday. Rain chances are basically nil for the next seven days. Next week we’ll see a distinct warmup, and it’s still too early to tell whether a front will arrive in time to cool us down for Thanksgiving.

Fall arrives in Houston for a while

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 50s across the region, away from the coast, following the arrival of secondary surge of colder air. The next three nights will all be colder still, with lows in the 40s for much of the region before a warmup this weekend. Normal low temperatures for this time of year are about 50 degrees, so we’ll be a few degrees below our typical weather for the back-end of November for a few days.

Wednesday

We’re seeing some gusty winds this morning, up to 25 mph or even a bit higher, as this second front moves into the region. These winds should die down somewhat this afternoon. High temperatures today will push into the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with sunny skies. As winds slacken tonight, with clear skies, we should see ideal conditions for cooling. This will allow lows to drop into the upper 40s in the urban core of Houston, lower 40s for surrounding suburbs, and possibly upper 30s for areas west of Katy and north of The Woodlands. This will be our region’s coldest night of the season so far.

Thursday and Friday

Expect more sunny weather, cooler temperatures, and dry air. Highs both days will be about 70 degrees, with nighttime temperatures in the upper 40s for Houston, and a little bit cooler for outlying areas. Winds will generally be light, from the north. This will be fine, fall-like weather.

Saturday and Sunday

By the weekend we’ll start to feel the effects of the onshore flow. Saturday will bring more sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. The air will still feel reasonably dry, but overnight lows will only fall to around 60 degrees on Saturday night. Sunday will be moderately humid, with highs around 80 degrees or a tick higher. There may be a few clouds. All in all, it’s a fine weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

The first part of next week still looks fairly warm, with high temperatures in the low 80s, and mild nights in the 60s. At some point a decent front is likely to pass through the area, but whether that’s in time to cool us down for Thanksgiving remains very much an open question. This makes it difficult to forecast weather for the holiday, so for now I’m just going to wave my arms and ruffle my feathers, and say, stay tuned.

Fundraiser

The response to our annual fundraiser so far has been tremendous! We’ve still got about 10 days to go, and your support makes a meaningful difference in our ability to serve everyone in the Houston area. If you’re interested in helping out, please consider donating or purchasing merchandise here.

In brief: In the wake of Monday’s front, Houston’s weather will now be sunny and cooler for the rest of the week, before a warmup this weekend. Today’s post assesses just how cool our nights will get. Then, we’ll look ahead to an uncertain forecast for Thanksgiving, nine days from now. Finally, we talk about a nice accolade for the site.

A few notes

Thank you to everyone who voted for Matt and I, as we were formally named “Houstonian of the year” on Monday by Houstonia magazine. We have been doing the no-hype thing for more than nine years now, and it is wonderful to be recognized by the community for our efforts to produce reliable information.

If you’re interested in space, I’ll be giving a talk at North Shepherd Brewing today at 6:30 pm CT, as part of the “Pint-Sized Science” series to broaden science in a fun and public way. There’s no charge. More information can be found here.

Finally, we’re right in the middle of our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. Thank you, sincerely, to everyone who has contributed so far. We use these funds to keep the website and app going all year long—rain or shine, flood or drought. You can find out how to donate, or purchase merchandise, right here.

Tuesday

Most of the region saw at least a smattering of rain, and some parts of Houston picked up 1 inch or more as a cool front pushed into the region on Monday. That should be the end of the rain for at least a week, and we’re unlikely to even see so much as a few clouds until Friday or Saturday. Rather, it’s going to be sunshine and drier air for awhile. High temperatures today are going to push into the upper 70s to about 80 degrees, but with lower dewpoints the air will not feel humid. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-50s. The thing to watch for after midnight will be increasing winds from the northwest, gusting up to 20 to 25 mph. This will represent a surge of colder and drier air that will really bring us into November-like weather.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures of about 70 degrees, and rather dry air. Winds will generally be light. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights will all be chilly, likely getting into the upper 40s for much of Houston. Wednesday night should be the coolest night, however, with far inland parts of our region dropping into the upper 30s. Sweater weather, finally?

Saturday and Sunday

Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, but we’ll start to see some clouds as a southerly flow returns. Highs on Saturday should reach the mid-70s, with overnight lows around 60 degrees. Sunday will be a bit more humid, with highs of around 80 degrees. If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, you should have zero concerns.

Next week, plus an early look at Thanksgiving

Monday and Tuesday of next week will, almost certainly, be rather warm and muggy. I suspect most of the region will be in the mid-80s. (Record highs for next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are 86, 86, and 84 degrees, respectively. We will be close to that). Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s. So very un-holiday-like.

However, there’s a pretty strong signal for a front to arrive in the middle of next week. The major operational models bring the front through by Wednesday, but when we dig deeper into the ensembles there’s definitely some risk that the front is delayed to Thursday, which is of course Thanksgiving. There’s likely to be some rain with the front, although right now there’s no evidence of a major line of storms or anything.

So where does that leave us? We’re going to have to give you a probabilistic forecast at this point. By this, I mean the most likely outcome is that the front makes it through on Wednesday, and Thanksgiving ends up with high temperatures in the 60s, and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies but no rain. However, there’s a decent chance (one-in-three, maybe?) that the front is slower and doesn’t arrive until Thanksgiving Day. In such a scenario the holiday may be fairly warm and muggy, with a health chance of showers. That sure would be a turkey of a forecast.

In brief: Houston faces the slight possibility of some thunderstorms as a cold front pushes into Houston this afternoon, with drier air following. A stronger push of cold air on Wednesday will bring the coldest night of the season for most locations, making it feel more seasonal as we get closer to the holidays.

November will feel more like November soon

For mid-November it is an incredibly warm morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-70s. We are running about 25 degrees above normal for this time of year for morning lows. And if you’re thinking, golly, I’d like it to be feel a little bit more like the holiday season, you’re in luck as a front will arrive today. A push of colder air on Wednesday will make things downright chilly during the second half of the week. Also, please don’t forget that we’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, during which your support keeps Space City Weather going all year long. You can find more information here.

Monday

Houston will see scattered, mostly light showers this morning in advance of a front moving in from the west. Highs will reach around 80 degrees, or a bit above. A line of storms should push into western areas of Houston, including Katy, by around 2 to 4 pm. At this time it looks like this line of showers will be falling apart as it pushes into Houston during the next hour or two, but I’m not ready to entirely rule out some stronger thunderstorms and the possibility of damaging winds. Still, the overall threat from this frontal passage appears to be pretty low. The showers will be clear of the area by around sunset or shortly after, with somewhat drier air pushing in. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny day, with moderately drier air and light winds. Most areas should see highs in the upper 70s. Lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night, but the more noticeable trend will be stronger winds after midnight, from the northwest. This will herald the arrival of a secondary push of colder and drier air.

Wednesday

Said winds will peak during the early morning hours on Wednesday, gusting up to 25 mph or higher before relaxing during the afternoon or evening hours. Skies will remain sunny throughout. Lows on Wednesday night will generally drop into the 40s in Houston, and this should be the coldest night of the week.

Thursday and Friday

These will be pleasant and sunny days, with highs of around 70 degrees, and lows around 50 degrees with cooler conditions in outlying areas. Humidity will be low.

Saturday and Sunday

The sunshine party continues this weekend, and there are zero concerns for any outdoor activities you may have planned. Humidity will be on the upswing, but still quite a bit lower than is normal in Houston. Look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and about 80 degrees on Sunday. By Sunday night lows will only be dropping into the 60s.

Next week

We’ll start out warm next week, but at some point a cold front should arrive. The timing for this front is critical, of course, with Thanksgiving on the horizon next Thursday, and the possibility of some rainfall with the front. In tomorrow’s post I will dig a bit deeper into the forecast for Thanksgiving Day in Houston, when hopefully there will be a little more clarity.

In brief: I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend in Houston, and we’re sorry to interrupt. But I wanted to give readers a heads up about the intermittent rain chances our region will face over the next 36 hours or so. We’re watching the potential for some minor street flooding today, and strong thunderstorms Monday.

The pattern for the next two days will be unsettled due to an advancing front that is running into very warm air over the Gulf of Mexico with plenty of moisture at hand. For the most part, the rainfall today and Monday will not be too disruptive. However, the atmospheric conditions are such that we could see some inclement weather, including the possibility of some strong winds on Monday.

Sunday

As of 8:30 am this morning, there is a line of showers running almost due north from Alvin and Pearland to Kingwood and Cleveland. We expect to see this kind of training pattern pattern today whereby some locations pick up in excess of 1 or 2 inches of rainfall under these bands, and most of the rest of the area only sees light rain. It’s possible there could be some minor street flooding where these bands establish themselves. Most of our guidance indicates significantly less activity over night, so showers should be on the wane by this evening. Highs today will reach the lower 80s for most locations.

Monday

On Monday the front itself will push into Houston, and we should see a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The timing is still a bit uncertain, but I’d expect the line to coalesce to the west of Houston by around noon, and push through during the afternoon hours. It should reach the coast by around sunset give or take an hour or two. This line will be moving fast enough that I don’t expect any major flooding problems, but for some areas there will be a period when it passes when thunderstorms are a bit gnarly. There is also the potential for some damaging winds, but the chances for tornadoes and hail are quite low. The rains will end quickly behind the front as drier air filters in.

Next week

Skies will clear out by Monday night, and we’ll see ample sunshine through next weekend. A shot of colder air arrives on Wednesday, and we should see a couple of nights in the 40s, which will be our coldest weather of the season. Look for full details on all of this in our regular post on Monday morning.

Fundraiser

I just wanted to mention that our annual fundraiser is ongoing for two more weeks. Your support is critical to the operation of the website, and all we do here at Space City Weather. More information on how to donate or buy merchandise can be found here.