Eric Berger

In brief: The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard have traversed north of our region, but it has left a disturbed atmosphere in its wake. This should lead to healthy shower and thunderstorm chances in the coming days, and slightly cooler than normal temperatures.

Edouard gone, but an unsettled pattern remains

The remnants of Edouard have now moved over north Texas, with heavy rains lingering in places like Huntsville and Crockett this morning. While this system will continue to slowly progress north today, it will leave an unsettled pattern in its wake over Houston. This essentially means that there is plenty of atmospheric moisture and low pressure, conditions capable of producing showers and thunderstorms.

We saw the effect of this on Wednesday, when there were some fairly robust thunderstorms in northern Harris and southern Montgomery counties, including in The Woodlands. This pattern will persist into the weekend, bringing heathy rain chances to our region. Afternoon heat will provide the best opportunity for storms to form, but showers won’t occur exclusively during the afternoon and early evening hours. Over the next three days I expect most of Houston to pick up between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, but of course there will be some areas that get more (beneath stronger cells) and some locations that miss out completely.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will see, as mentioned above, healthy chances of afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. I’d put chances at around 50 percent for most of the area. With mostly cloudy skies, we should see highs max out at around 90 degrees, or slightly above, for most locations. Rain chances should slacken overnight, but not completely go away. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 70s.

Saturday

This will be another day with ample moisture, so similar to Thursday and Friday I expect a healthy chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will get hit, of course, and the way it usually works in Houston is if you’re desperate for rain it’s dry, whereas two neighborhoods over it’s raining cats and dogs. Highs should peak in the low 90s.

Sunday and Monday

Sunday could go either way, as in it could see widespread showers and mostly cloudy skies, or we could start to see the influence of high pressure so conditions start to clear out and temperatures warm into the low- to mid-90s. I do expect that by Labor Day most of the region will be mostly sunny, with a lower likelihood of rain and weather that’s a bit warmer. Hopefully we can get you a more precise holiday weekend forecast in tomorrow’s post.

Next week

My general expectations for next week are a continued pattern in which we see partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 90s, and decent-to-good rain chances during the afternoon hours. We are unlikely to see a dominant ridge of high pressure develop again, as happened in August, so that should keep us open to the possibility of sea breeze showers.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the very heavy rainfall from Edouard that occurred overnight over East Texas. We also look ahead to a warm, but not too warm period for the Houston metro area during which we will continue to see some decent daily rain chances. (Yes, really).

The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are slowly moving to the north-northwest this morning, and rains near the center have produced significant flooding over counties to the northeast of Houston, particularly Polk and Hardin counties. Some towns north of Beaumont, including Kountze, Saratoga, and Lumberton, have received in excess of 12 inches of rainfall. Closer to Houston, locations such as Conroe, Cleveland, and Dayton have all seen several inches of rainfall.

These rains should slowly lift north today, into Walker, Trinity, and Houston (note: Houston County lies well to the north of the city of Houston) counties along with the remnants of Edouard. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible in these counties from the slow-moving system. Strong winds have also been observed near the center of the system, with gusts in the 40s recorded near Lake Livingston. But these are now fading.

Let’s take a look at the forecast for the Houston metro area.

Wednesday

Although Edouard proved a major disappointment on the rainfall front in Houston, its passage does not spell the end of our rain chances. It leaves in its wake a fair amount of atmospheric moisture, and this should produce a healthy likelihood of showers later today. Much of the area has about a 50 percent chance of rain, most likely during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Some locations may pick up as much as an inch, while other areas will miss out. Speaking of daytime heating, highs today will reach the lower 90s for most locations, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A similar pattern will persist into Labor Day weekend. We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds during this period, with most of Houston recording highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is fairly standard for this time of year. Each day is likely to have about a 50 percent chance of rain. Some of the short-range models are fairly bullish about shower chances on Thursday, but I want to see more data before I bite. By the weekend I do not expect widespread or long-lived showers, but they could still pop up at your pool or beach day.

Labor Day and beyond

If I had to guess—and I’m a meteorologist, so I guess I must—I would say that Labor Day will be a fairly sunny, low-rain chance kind of day. Expect widespread highs in the low- to mid-90s probably, so beaches and barbecues and the like will probably find favorable weather. There’s not a clear signal for what is coming later next week, but overall I do favor the return of healthy daily rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. So despite our disappointment at not seeing some rain from Edouard after a very dry August, I believe the overall pattern ahead of us favors a wetter pattern over the next 10 days.

In brief: Edouard was a bust in Houston on Tuesday with regard to rainfall, but the potential remains for it to be a potent rain-maker Tuesday night for areas north, and northeast of Houston. We discuss why flooding in these areas is possible.

If you live in Houston or its surrounding suburbs, the threat of heavy rainfall from Edouard is pretty much over. Not that the storm brought much precipitation today; rather it was a bust that only produced measurable rainfall in the vicinity of The Woodlands. A lot of us wanted more, and a lot of us are disappointed. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in the city, but most of us in the Houston metro area will probably miss out.

The same cannot be said for areas north and northeast of Houston, and I want to call attention to this threat because the center of Edouard, although it is rapidly weakening, remains capable of producing significant rainfall. The heaviest rains from the storm have now moved north of Beaumont (see radar snapshot above), and will continue to move to the west-northwest tonight.

So what does that mean? Basically if you live in Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, Walker, and Trinity counties you face the potential for heavy rainfall tonight, perhaps as much as 4 to 8 inches under the most efficient storms. Not all of these areas will see this rainfall, but the potential with a relatively slow moving storm and efficient tropical rains is definitely there for some spots to get hit.

Could some of these heavier rains sneak into Montgomery County or northeastern Harris County, in places such as Kingwood or Huffman? Possibly yes, but we think the risk is greater to the east, in a place such as Liberty, or north, such as Cleveland.

Storms that develop tonight should probably be clearing by Wednesday morning. We’ll have a full update for you then, by or before 7 am CT.

In brief: As of 2 pm CT on Tuesday Tropical Storm Edouard has begun making landfall in extreme southwestern Louisiana, not far from Port Arthur and Beaumont. Houston will not see much in the way of winds and high seas, but what about rainfall?

Just a quick update this afternoon to provide some additional information on the status of Tropical Storm Edouard, which is coming ashore near the state line between Texas and Louisiana. Although Edouard has strengthened some today, it has remained a tropical storm rather than blossoming into a hurricane.

The storm is far enough away from the Houston metro area that direct impacts in our region (as we suggested on Monday evening) are minimal. Winds may turn a bit gusty this afternoon and evening, and seas along Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula may be a foot or two higher than normal at high tide. However, when one steps outside today it will not meaningfully feel like a tropical storm in Harris or surrounding counties.

So, is it going to rain?

This leaves us with rainfall potential. Our expectations for rain were never particularly high for areas west of Interstate 45, and now I am sorry to say—because let’s face it, after a long, hot, and dry August our soils are parched—our expectations for rain in these areas is even lower. Certainly we could still see some wrap-around showers over the next 24 to 36 hours, but significant relief is not coming for most locations.

For areas along and east of I-45 there still a good chance of at least some rainfall as a band or two moves through, particularly the further east you get, i.e. Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and into Chambers County. But even so I would not hope for much more than an inch or two of rainfall, and most locations may not even get even this. The best chance of rain may well come north of the Houston metro area, along and north Highway 105 in Montgomery County, near the center tonight.

In any case, if you’ve been hoping for a good soaking from Edouard in Houston, I feel your pain. Ultimately the storm’s center just tracked too far to the east. Instead of making landfall on the Texas side of Port Arthur, it is doing so on the Louisiana side. That is going to end up pulling the most abundant moisture, and resulting rainfall, east of most Houston-area residents. Normally in this situation I’d say we should gang up and blame Matt, but he’s gone and moved to Connecticut, so I guess this one’s on me.

Our next update will come by or before 10 pm CT tonight.