Eric Berger

In brief: A bowing line of thunderstorms moved through the Houston region early on Wednesday, but we think this is our final serious disturbance for awhile. Roads should be fine for the morning commute. Our weather turns warmer, and sunnier to start the weekend.

Wednesday morning wombo combo

I don’t know about you, but I’ve been awake since the wee hours of this morning thanks to a line of strong thunderstorms, some of which were severe. I’m not sure if it was the wind, the thunder and lightning, or the heavy rainfall, but following yet another round of storms this morning I found it difficult to fall back asleep. Most of the region picked up between 1 and 2 inches overnight, with additional light to moderate rain expected to keep falling for a few more hours this morning.

If you’re like me and you’re tired of being woken up by bowing lines of storms making a lot of noise, you’re in luck. After this morning our overall pattern should turn fairly calm. That’s not to say we may not see some additional showers in the coming days, but we’re very unlikely to see these kinds of storms for at least the next week, if not longer. In fact our pattern is starting to look very much like summer lite in Houston, which makes sense as June starts in a few days.

Wednesday

We are seeing light showers across much of Houston this morning, but the main line of storms has already progressed into Louisiana. To our south there is another complex of storms advancing to the northeast. My best guess is that this will weaken over the next few hours, but we could see some additional rain into the early afternoon hours, and I suppose a few additional thunderstorms are possible. We should start to see some clearing skies later this afternoon, but high temperatures will probably hold in the lower 80s. Today’s forecast high may be our “coolest” daytime temperature until October, even if it is rather humid. A few scattered showers are possible tonight, with lows dropping to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

This has the look of a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s. There is perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of showers. Winds appear to be light, from the east. Lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer, in the mid-70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We will enter a warmer pattern over the weekend, with daytime highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, and overnight lows in the mid-70s. Skies on Friday will be mostly sunny, but by Saturday and Sunday there could be a few more clouds in the mix. Winds will generally be the from the south, and not too active, likely peaking at 10 mph during the afternoon hours. A chance of rain returns on Sunday afternoon or evening, but from this vantage point the overall likelihood of precipitation appears fairly low.

Next week

Better rain chances return Monday and Tuesday, but I’m not anticipating anything serious. Temperatures remain around 90 degrees, although there’s a chance we see some slightly drier air move in during the middle of the week. Could we squeeze out one or two nights in the 60s? Probably not, given the time of year, but there’s at least a puncher’s chance.

In brief: Following a splendid Memorial Day in Houston, we are going to see the brief return of potentially heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Note that these storms may hit during the morning commute. The weekend looks warmer, and mostly rain-free.

Look back at last week

Before we look ahead, I wanted to briefly review our rainfall totals last week, from Sunday morning to Sunday morning. Most areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 picked up 3 to 6 inches of rainfall whereas inland areas were more in line with 2 to 4 inches. For much of the region (excluding areas south of the region) the bulk of these rains came on Saturday, when there was flash flooding.

These rains were largely beneficial for most areas. As the Houston region enters the hottest part of the year, with the highest Sun angle, our soils are largely drought-free. It is a great position to be. You may also note on the map above that areas south of Houston, along Coastal Bend, also received healthy rainfall totals last week. This has had a beneficial impact on one of the two main reservoirs that provide water for Corpus Christi. Although Choke Canyon has largely been unimpacted, Lake Corpus Christi is now 14.7 percent full, an increase from 8.7 percent full a month ago. This will provide the region a little more time to sort out its severe water shortage issues.

Tuesday

If you enjoyed Memorial Day—and it ended up being a rather nice holiday for outdoor, sunny activities—today should be similar. High temperatures will push into the upper-80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at about 10 mph with slightly higher gusts. Rain chances are low, perhaps 10 to 20 percent. Rain chances increase tonight, especially after midnight.

Wednesday

An atmospheric disturbance will move into the region overnight on Tuesday from the west, and likely push an area of storms through the region early on Wednesday. At this point I think the best chance for widespread showers will occur between 4 am and noon on Wednesday in Houston. Flooding is possible, of course, but for most of the region accumulations look to be between 1 and 2 inches. This should be manageable, but definitely worth monitoring given that these showers and thunderstorms are likely to move through during the morning commute. Highs on Wednesday will likely top out at about 80 degrees, with lower rain chances likely during the afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday

We can expect some lingering showers on Thursday, but coverage and amounts should be significantly less than on Wednesday. Skies will turn partly sunny and highs likely will push back into the upper 80s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We probably will see high temperatures rise to about 90 degrees beginning on Friday, and lasting through the weekend. This is on par for this time of year. Skies look to be mostly sunny on Friday, with partly sunny conditions on Saturday and Sunday. With dewpoints in the low- to mid-70s we’re getting there in terms of summer-time humidity in Houston, but just know it can get worse than this. (And it will, hah). Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. Some rain chances return later on Sunday, although they look iffy to me at this point.

Next week

Rain chances rise to start next week, and there is some evidence that a weak front may approach Houston. Anyone betting on a cool front in June is probably a fool, so I’m offering no guarantees here. But there is a chance that some slightly cooler and drier air arrives later next week. If so, it would definitely be a bonus. We’ll see.

In brief: As the likelihood of widespread storms has subsided, we are ending our Stage 2 flood alert. The conditions that brought heavy rains on Saturday have largely passed. Have a great remainder of the Memorial Day weekend, everyone!

It’s Sunday morning in Houston, the radar is quiet, and temperatures are fairly pleasant for late May. After Saturday’s widespread storms and heavy rainfall, it’s a nice change. And I’m happy to report that, in contrast to the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the rest of it should remain pretty calm. Conditions should be calm enough, in fact, that we’re lifting our Stage 2 flood alert.

Both Sunday and Monday should be partly to mostly sunny. We are likely to remain in the lower 80s today, with temperatures rising to the mid- to upper-80s by Monday. And what of rain chances? They’re probably on the order of 20 or 30 percent each day, perhaps a little higher near the coast and a little lower further inland. The reason is that the impact of an upper-level system is diminishing. Bear in mind that even though each day could be mostly sunny, there still is the chance of a quick-moving shower or thunderstorm popping up.

Tuesday should bring more of the same, but by early Wednesday we are likely to see another disturbance move through. This could bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain during the middle of next week. But by then any recent rises on creeks and bayous should have subsided.

Unless the forecast changes significantly for Memorial Day, we are probably going to take the holiday off. Accordingly, we hope you have a great remainder of the weekend, and we’ll be back with a full post on Tuesday morning.

In brief: Strong showers and thunderstorms are moving through Houston on Saturday afternoon, creating some flash flooding. The good news is that this mess should exit the area over the next couple of hours. Until then be weather aware.

Hi everyone, just a quick update to note that the “afternoon” round of storms we advertised in this morning’s post is now moving through central Houston. This band of showers and thunderstorms is producing heavy rainfall, and we’re seeing some flash flooding consistent with the Stage 2 alert we have put into place for this weekend.

The good news is that these storms are progressing fairly well to the east-northeast, and should gradually clear the entire metro area by around sunset if not before. Accordingly if you have dinner reservations or other plans later this evening you should feel free to go out. Once these storms end we anticipate a quiet evening and overnight period.

As for Sunday, we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms (probably better chances closer to the coast) but nothing as organized as what we experienced today. Memorial Day probably will have less coverage still, with more sunshine. We will break this all down for you in an update on Sunday morning.