Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we review the last six months of precipitation across Texas (spoiler alert, it’s been very dry). We then look ahead to warm and muggy weather for the rest of the week, and spiky rain chances this weekend.

We could use some rain

We’ve been banging on it for awhile now, but the greater Houston region continues to remain in a very dry pattern. During the last six months large chunks of the metro area have received just 25 to 50 percent of normal rainfall (see map below), leading to a drought. This has not caused serious problems yet, because the drought has coincided with the coolest time of year. But as we get deeper into spring, if we do not get rain soon, the dryness of our soils will start to accelerate as days get longer and hotter. Anyway, I write all of that to say I don’t believe this weekend’s rains will significantly dent our drought, but they could still help.

Wednesday and Thursday

The next two days will be pretty much carbon copies of one another. We are starting out this morning with overcast skies and very warm temperatures for early March, not having fallen below 70 degrees in some locations. Winds are fairly light this morning, but will become gusty this afternoon, perhaps up to 20 mph. High temperatures across the region will generally vary from about 80 degrees right along the coast to mid-80s for inland areas.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the party this evening you can expect mild temperatures in the 70s. Although we may briefly see some sunshine this afternoon, I expect clouds to be building back by early evening and remain persistent through the night. Overnight lows will once again only drop down to around 70 degrees across the region.

Friday

This day will also be a lot like Wednesday and Thursday, in terms of mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. There will also be the ongoing chance of fog overnight, near the coast. However the one difference starting on Friday will be a slight chance of some showers, more likely later in the day, as a cool front sags toward the area. Any rain would likely be light in nature.

Saturday and Sunday

Alright, so what does the weekend hold? We are going to see a battle in the atmosphere between an approaching disturbance from the northwest (which will bring plenty of rain into central and northern Texas) against lingering high pressure to our east. There will be plenty of atmospheric moisture. It is going to come down to where the frontal boundary stalls, and for now this appears likely to happen north of the Houston area. Accordingly the greatest likelihood of rain is there as well. I continue to predict that most of our region will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches this weekend, but I’m more confident of that occurring inland of Highway 59/I-69 than I am for coastal areas, further away from the stalled boundary. Temperatures this weekend should remain warm, in the low 80s, with plenty of clouds and humidity.

Next week

Our abnormally warm weather will continue into next week before the arrival of a front, probably on Wednesday, brings us back to March-like weather for a few days. I believe there will be additional rainfall with this front, perhaps some decent showers and thunderstorms, but at a week out any predictions are not made with confidence.

In brief: In today’s post we talk about our anomalously warm start to March weather, and look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend. Unfortunately, there are still some details to iron out there.

March (temperature) madness

Generally, March is my favorite month of the year weather-wise in Houston. Our temperatures are not too hot, and not too cold. During the first part of the month the average high is typically around 70 degrees, and the average low is is 50 degrees. We usually have not yet reached the spring storm season. However this March is starting out quite a bit warmer than usual. And for the next 7 to 10 days we can expect to see highs in the low- to mid-80s, with very warm nights. If you’re wondering when March might start to feel like March again, the models do take a pretty decisive turn toward the chillier side about nine days from now, but until then, it will feel like late April outside, especially at night.

Tuesday

Today will bring a slight chance of light showers this morning, perhaps 10 percent, before our mostly cloudy skies give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low- to mid-80s, with temperatures depending on the extent of afternoon sunshine between 3 and 5 pm. With dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60s, it will feel moderately sticky outside.

Rodeo weather

It won’t quite be hold-on-to-your-hat weather at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this afternoon, but we will see winds gust up to about 25 mph from the south this afternoon, and it will still be breezy during the early evening hours. Temperatures heading into the rodeo will be in the mid-70s, with conditions only a few degrees cooler afterwards. Fog development will be possible after midnight, and this will be the case for much of the rest of the week.

Wednesday

A cold front will be moving into north Texas on Wednesday, but it will stall out well north of the Houston metro area. There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms far north of our area, but in Houston itself I don’t think we’re likely to see much in the way of rainfall or impacts. Rain chances may be on the order of 20 percent, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s for most. Nighttime lows will drop to around 70 degrees, and I don’t need to say more about warm nights because this is the way it’s going to be through the early part of next week.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of days with cloudy starts and partly sunny afternoons, allowing high temperatures to reach the low- to mid-80s during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday

This weekend will continue to see warm weather in the 80s, with fairly muggy air. The question is rainfall. And it is a legitimate question. A front is going to push down closer to the region, and stall somewhere. Depending where this stalls it could bring heavy rainfall to parts of Houston, but if it stops far enough north of the city then Houston is unlikely to see all that much rain. This makes the forecast difficult. In general I think most of the area will see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through Monday, but there is a risk of higher totals than this, or lower totals, and I expect amounts to vary widely. So we just need some more time to iron out a more detailed forecast for you. I know a lot of us are excited about the potential for significant spring-time rainfall, but it’s not a slam dunk yet.

Next week

At some point next week, perhaps on Wednesday, we are likely (although at this distance, not certain) to see a stronger front move all the way through the city and push offshore. This could bring another healthy chance of rainfall before exiting offshore, and push our overnight temperatures down in the vicinity of 50 degrees. We’ll see.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our unseasonably warm weather this week, which will persist into the weekend. The big thing we’re watching for is rain chances this weekend, which will be pretty high, although exact accumulations are impossible to forecast right now.

Rodeo forecasts

The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is back, and it will be with us for the next three weeks. We will be providing daily forecasts for attendees because so many people go. The average daily attendance is about 70,000, and last year the event set a record for attendance with 2.7 million people. Also, our long-time sidekick Reliant—our pard in cowboy parlance—is one of the main sponsors of the event. Conditions look fine for the first few days this week, but by the weekend we should see widespread showers. This isn’t so great for the fairway, but it will be very helpful for our soils and foliage as we move deeper into spring.

Monday

Conditions are fairly warm for early March out there, with temperatures in the low- to mid-60s this morning, and we are going to see warm-ish weather all week as a southerly flow dominates our weather. High temperatures today will reach the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and modest winds from the southeast.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening we really have no weather concerns for you. Expect partly sunny skies before sunset with mild temperatures in the mid-70s before the show. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Afterward there will be increasing clouds with temperatures in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will not drop much further, only reaching the mid-60s for most of the region.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our forecast won’t change much this week. A front will approach the area, but should stall out before moving into the Houston region. As a result each of these days should see high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, with somewhat humid air. Overnight lows will fall only into the upper 60s. As a persistent southerly flow remains in place we can expect skies to be cloudy most of the time, and our nights to be warm. Daily rain chances will, overall, be on the order of 20 to 30 percent. Areas well to the northwest of Houston, such as College Station, have a better chance of seeing rain this week. Anyway, this will be our warmest and muggiest week of the year so far.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

The weekend looks rainy for much of the state of Texas as a series of disturbances push through. We still don’t have high confidence in rain accumulations for the Houston area, but there is the potential for 1 to 3 inches from Saturday through Monday, with higher isolated amounts. Rain totals area likely to be even greater for central and northern Texas, where locations could see 3 to 5 inches, and there is the potential for some flooding. (Matt will have more on the broader Texas implications on The Eyewall later this morning). Anyway, for Houston, I don’t expect wall to wall rain, but rather we should see cloudy skies this weekend with muggy temperatures and on-and-off showers. If you have outdoor plans we’ll be able to better refine the forecast the closer we get.

Later next week

After unseasonably warm weather for the next week or so, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week a cold front should push into the area. It’s a long ways off, but this should bring cooler nights back into Houston, with lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees or so. As always, at 10 days out, the details are pretty fuzzy.

In brief: In today’s post we’re celebrating like it’s the 80s all over again, because that’s how February is going to end. In fact, with three days to go, this month already has had the third-warmest days on record in Houston. A weak front will bring somewhat drier air into Houston for the weekend.

Frying in February

On average, February is the third coolest month of the year in Houston. Put another way, of the winter months, it is the warmest; but still significantly cooler than the rest of the year. The normal high temperature for the month, based upon temperatures from 1990 to 2020, is 67.9 degrees. This year, our average high temperature with three days to go is 74.2 degrees. (Only 1962 at 74.4 degrees, and 2017 at 76.8 degrees rank higher).

It’s not just been Houston. Persistent high pressure for much of this month has kept the entire state of Texas and our neighbors much warmer than average (see map above). Highs in the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma have been especially hot, relative to normal temperatures this time of year. As we’ll report below, the heat party we’ve been dancing to this month will turn into a rave today as high temperatures soar as much as 20 degrees above normal. In fact we probably will end February with four straight days of highs of 80 degrees or above.

Thursday

Our winds have settled down some this morning, but they’re still a bit blowy from the southwest. We could see gusts up to 20 mph, but that will feel like nothing after widespread gusts of 40 mph on Wednesday. Because skies will be a little more cloudy today, I think that may shave 1 or 2 degrees off our previously forecast highs, and that could keep most of our locations at or below record high temperatures this afternoon. It’s still going to be warm, however, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations except for the immediate coast. A weak front will arrive late tonight, but not in enough time to do much with lows, so expect them in the range of 65 degrees for most locations.

Friday

This will be a sunny day, and lower dewpoints should allow temperatures to push into the low- to mid-80s again. However, with the drier air it should feel somewhat less humid (the further inland you are, the less humid it will be), and low temperatures on Friday night should drop down to around 60 degrees. Note this is still pretty warm for this time of year, as the front just is not going to bring all that much oomph along with it in terms of colder air.

Saturday and Sunday

These should be partly to mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Yes, there will be some humidity, but no, it will be very far from oppressive by Houston standards. Saturday night should see temperatures drop down to near 60 degrees again, but Sunday night will be warmer. Saturday’s winds look moderate, but by Sunday afternoon we might see some southerly gusts up to around 20 mph.

Next week

Not much changes through at least the middle of next week. We’re going to see partly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and lows in the lower- to mid-60s. Some slight rain chances may return by the middle of the week, but we may have to wait until the weekend for a real uptick in the precipitation outlook. But this is far enough into the future that our forecast turns pretty fuzzy, pretty quickly.

I hope everyone has a terrific Thursday!