Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we take a broader look at rains expected to move into Texas from the remains of a Pacific hurricane, and look ahead to cooler and wetter weather across the Houston region toward the end of this week.

Polo’s remains bring Texas rains

Hurricane Polo, a powerful storm in the Pacific Ocean, is about to make landfall over Baja Peninsula and then will move toward Texas over the next couple of days. There it will bring the potential for heavy rainfall. Houston, under less of a threat, will see rains later this week, which we’ll discuss below. But to start I wanted to highlight the threat from Polo to central Texas. The following is a snippet from our companion site, The Eyewall.

Copious amounts of moisture will surge into the Desert Southwest and eventually the Southern Plains and Texas from Hurricane Polo. The moisture from Polo and a slow or stalling cold front will probably focus repeating rounds of rain from Hill Country into North Texas. Those areas are already under a moderate risk (level 3/4) for flash flooding on Wednesday, and that will likely extend into Thursday as well.

Rain totals are likely to end up in the 4 to 8 inch range from south of San Antonio through Dallas and perhaps up toward Durant, OK through Friday. There is a chance that some areas see as much as 10 to 12 inches though, as we know Texas flood history is littered with these types of remnant Pacific hurricane events.

For now the more serious flooding concerns are likely to stay north and west of the Houston region. Texas folks in Hill Country and the Metroplex should monitor the next couple days of forecasts very closely and be prepared for disruptions on Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

Locally, we don’t expect too much rainfall over the next few days. Rain chances through Wednesday will be on the lower end, probably 20 to 30 percent each day. Yes, there could be a few more clouds, and we certainly cannot rule out some thunderstorms, but any moisture related to Polo should remain well to our west. Highs each day will be in the low- to mid-90s with plenty of humidity. Nights will be muggy, in the upper 70s for the most part.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This is the period when we expect improved rain chances across the Houston region as available moisture in the atmosphere surges upward. Unfortunately, I cannot give you a precisely detailed forecast for each day. However, rain chances should be 50 percent or above, with with partly to mostly cloudy skies. At this point Friday appears likely to have the best overall chance for rain, but this could shift over the next couple of days. In terms of overall accumulations, they will vary widely, but I expect most of the Houston region to pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall through Sunday. Again we’ll need to fine tune this forecast as we get closer.

In terms of daily temperatures, the cloud cover, rain, and a weak front should help pull highs down into the 80s on most days, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. So basically we’ll be at pretty seasonable levels for early October.

Next week

The rains should subside by Monday or Tuesday of next week, after which point something of a stronger front may arrive to possibly push nights into the 60s during the second half of the week. More on that in the coming days as we get more clarity on the situation.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the end of the Texas hurricane season, which is at hand. Fall now appears to be firmly on horizon, with a weak front today and then chances for more fronts in the coming weeks. Can I get an amen?

September 24th is here

Most years, around this date, we proclaim that the Texas hurricane season—that is, the period of the year when a hurricane could strike Texas—is over. We don’t do so every year. If it has been an especially busy hurricane season, or if there is a storm that could reasonably threaten the state within the next 10 days, or if we just don’t have any cold fronts on the horizon, we have been known to hold off. But not this year.

For starters, due in large part to El Niño, we still have not seen a single hurricane develop in the Atlantic basin this season. That has never happened in the modern era. Additionally, the Gulf looks quiet at least through the end of the month, and probably longer. And finally, we do have some fronts on the horizon: a weak one today, and potentially a another one next week. Add it all up, and we are confident that Texans can breathe easy when it comes to hurricane season this year.

Yes, more than two months remain in the official season (which ends on November 30). But by this time of year, in Texas, we start to see more influence from the mid-latitude westerlies, which tend to push tropical activity away from the state. The chance is not zero: historically there is about a 2 percent likelihood that a hurricane will strike Texas after this date. We also could see a weaker tropical storm make landfall. But our concern level is not high.

Albeit in fits and starts, fall is coming, and we encourage you to enjoy it without worrying too much about the tropics.

Thursday

Houston tied its record high (99 degrees) on Wednesday, but after a very hot mid-September stretch we should hopefully be done with the extreme heat here. A weak front will back in from the northeast later today, bringing some drier air with it (slowly). The front may spark a few isolated showers, but mostly I anticipate mostly sunny skies. Highs today will be in the low- to mid-90s, with northeast winds at about 10 mph. For lower humidity we are going to have to wait for tonight, or Friday morning.

Friday

By or before sunrise a slightly stronger push of drier air should arrive from the northeast, and this now looks set to knock dewpoints down into the 50s during much of the daytime. This will be fairly noticeable. Lows on Friday morning will likely be in the lower 70s for most of the region (so pleasant-ish with the drier air), with daytime highs warming efficiently into the lower 90s. Friday evening should still see lower humidity before dewpoints begin rising late Friday night into Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

Along with a return of humidity, the weekend should bring partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs generally in the lower 90s. There is a slight chance of showers with daytime heating on both days, but I think rain is unlikely. Lows should be in the upper 70s.

Next week

Monday should bring more of the same, but with an approaching upper-level system rain chances and cloud cover should start to increase on Tuesday, with widespread showers likely on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Whether this helps drag a stronger fall front through remains to be determined. But we probably will be in the upper 80s, for highs, regardless with the increased cloud cover. As noted above, our flirtations with triple digit temperatures should finally be over.

In brief: We recap Tuesday’s torrid temperatures, where parts of Houston hit the century mark and talk about how this late September fling with sizzling temperatures should soon start to wane. Next week things start to get even more interesting.

A September to not remember

Houston’s high temperature on Tuesday hit 99 degrees—I mean come on already—at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is just a single, solitary degree short of the all-time record high for the day. We are going to have one more day today in the upper 90s with high humidity, and we will surely give the record high for September 23 (97 degrees) a run for its money. At a time when high temperatures normally start to drift downward to 90 degrees, or even below, we have remained consistently in the mid- to upper-90s. Will summer ever go?

The answer is yes, albeit slowly. We are going to get a weak, backdoor front on Thursday. This will help with humidity a little bit. Then, I’m reasonably confident that we’re going to see another front during the middle of next week, although it remains to be determined in terms of how strong it will be. Regardless I do think that we are just about done with this relentless pattern of daily highs in the upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

But not today. With high pressure still in place, expect a sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper-90s across the region. We could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along with daytime heating, but your overall chances are very low. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 70s in Houston.

Thursday

We will start to see some slightly drier air backdoor into the region from the northeast on Thursday, likely pushing dewpoints into the lower 60s. Daytime highs will still get into the mid-90s, and sunshine will still prevail, but humidity will be a touch lower. This should allow low temperatures on Thursday night to drop into the mid-70s for most of the region.

Friday

With slightly lower humidity, Friday morning should feel pretty pleasant (although certainly not like crisp fall weather). Highs should still reach the low- to mid-90s on Friday, with another modestly cooler night in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs this weekend will generally in the low- to mid-90s with sunny skies and a fair bit of humidity. At least we should be several degrees below record highs. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. Rain chances are near zero, so plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Monday likely brings more of the same, but by Tuesday or Wednesday the breakdown of high pressure and approach of an upper-level low pressure system should bring increased rain chances. This should also bring some more cloud cover, knocking highs down to around 90 degrees. How much rain will we get in the middle of next week? Difficult to say for sure, but probably in the ballpark of 1 to 3 inches. After this some kind of front is likely (we are not 100 percent guaranteeing this yet, sorry) to move into the region. This has a decent chance of bringing us our first nights in the 60s since late spring, but again the details are to be determined. I don’t want to make any false promises.

In brief: In today’s post we check in on the drought status in the Houston region (it’s baaack) and look ahead to next week when the region may see some meaningful relief. Also, are we just about done with highs in the upper 90s? Please?

Drought is back?

Houston has seen its precipitation fortunes wax and wane this summer, with June and most of July bringing widespread showers into the region before very dry conditions across most of the region in August. Much of the area has seen some relief this month (some areas near Sugar Land picked up more than an inch of rain on an otherwise hot and sunny day yesterday), but not everyone.

If we check the US Drought Monitor this week, we can see that some areas near Houston, particularly to the southeast including Clear Lake and all of Galveston county, have slid back into a moderate drought. I don’t expect much relief through the weekend. But what about after that?

There is an increasingly strong signal in the models showing that high pressure will ease away from our region, allowing for atmospheric moisture levels to increase and bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region. We are still about a week out, but right now it does appear as though the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday period of next week will bring a decent shot of rainfall, with the potential for a few inches. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be sunny days, with uncharacteristically hot weather in the mid- to upper 90s for most of the region. We could possibly see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, like the region experienced on Monday, during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. But most of us will probably just see sunshine. Humidity remains high, with warm and sultry nights. Winds will be light, from the east-northeast.

Thursday and Friday

Some slightly drier air will start to arrive later on Thursday. This will not have much impact on daytime temperatures, with highs on both days likely in the mid-90s. However, it should lead to some slightly cooler nights, with lows in the low- to mid-70s and modestly lower humidity. The most noticeable time will be Friday morning. The effect will be subtle, but there. Skies will be sunny, with rain chances near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s for much of Houston. If you have outdoor plans this weekend there should be nothing to worry about except for the heat.

Next week

Monday should bring more of the same before we see high pressure move off, as discussed above. Right now the models are pointing toward Wednesday as having the best chance of rainfall, but it’s difficult to have any precision from this far out. As for temperatures, increased cloud cover and rain should take some of the heat out of daytime highs, possibly pushing us down into the 80s. The pattern will also open up the possibility of a real fall front moving into the region, but as of now I wouldn’t want to try to put a firm date on things. But I do feel pretty confident in saying that we should be done with this mid- to upper-90s malaise that has characterized much of September.