Eric Berger

In brief: After Houston picked up some needed rainfall over the last two days, we will continue to see shower chances for a few more days. By this weekend we should be sunny and fairly humid. Although it won’t feel quite summer-like, it still will be rather warm for late April.

Much-needed rainfall

After a fairly dry spring so far, nearly the entire Houston metro area picked up at least 1 to 2 inches of rain over the last two days. Some areas received as much as 5 inches. I will make two predictions as a result of this. First, by this weekend, your lawns will start to take on the appearance of a jungle with the combination of rain and sunny skies helping everything to green up and grow rapidly. And secondly, I fear that we’re going to see an outpouring of mosquitoes for the first time this spring. So goes the circle of life in Houston.

Tuesday

With that said, we are not yet done with rain. Overall chances are fairly low today, probably 20 to 30 percent area-wide, although perhaps a bit higher near the coast. Once this morning’s patchy fog gives way, we should see partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s. With dewpoints around 70 degrees it will feel fairly sticky outside. Winds will be fairly light, from the south at about 10 mph. If showers do develop, they are most likely during the afternoon or early evening hours. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

A passing disturbance will raise the chance for showers and thunderstorms to at least 50 percent on Wednesday. A couple of readers have asked about timing, but I don’t have a real clear picture. There could be showers at sunrise and near sunset, but at this time the most widespread and organized activity is likely to occur during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Some rain could be briefly heavy, but I don’t expect any severe thunderstorms. With mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should peak in the low 80s. Expect another warm night.

Thursday and Friday

These should be partly sunny and warmer days, with highs in the mid-80s in Houston, and possibly a bit warmer for areas further inland. Both days will have a slight chance of some thunderstorms and rain. Right now I’ll peg those chances at 20 percent, but there remains some uncertainty in the overall pattern.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s and plenty of humidity. Expect modest southeasterly winds of about 15 mph, with higher gusts, on both days, so that will help MS-150 bike riders with a tailwind at times, and a cross-tailwind at other times. It’s about the best you could hope for for a long weekend ride. Unfortunately for IRONMAN participants, dewpoints in the vicinity of 70 degrees will make for a very sticky race. Personally, I find it very difficult to run in such conditions and cannot imagine running a marathon in that kind of humidity. Good luck to all.

Next week

Much of next week looks partly cloudy, humid, and warm with temperatures in the upper 80s. It still appears as though some kind of pattern change is in the cards for later next week, with the return of some rain showers and possibly some cooler and drier air. It’s far too distant to have any confidence in the details, however.

In brief: A line of showers and storms has moved into the central Houston region this morning, and this activity should sag down to the coast throughout the day. After another chance of showers on Wednesday, most of the rest of this week looks warm, humid, and partly sunny.

Easter Sunday rains

Most of the western half of the region saw rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with upwards of 3 inches in some locations near Katy and The Woodlands. However, many areas closer to the coast remained dry overnight. That is likely to change today as the slow-moving front continues to sag into Houston and moves closer to the coast. Thus the areas most likely to see moderate to heavy rain over the next 24 hours will be south and east of Houston.

Monday

At sunrise this morning a line of storms is present from Sugar Land through Houston and into Kingwood. These showers and thunderstorms are moving very slowly to the east in response to the boundary. For areas inland of these showers, the rain is likely done for today. But for areas south and east, there is a high potential for moderate to heavy rain today. Accumulations will likely be on the order of 0.5 to 2 inches, with higher isolated totals. Rain chances should slacken, area-wide, this evening. Temperatures today will likely max out in the vicinity of 80 to 85 degrees, with the potential for partly sunny skies for inland areas. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees, with cooler temperatures far inland due to the retreating front.

Tuesday

This should be a partly sunny day with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but overall chances are probably 30 percent, or less.

Wednesday

A passing disturbance should spark a higher chance of rain on Wednesday, so expect a mix of light to moderate rain with a few scattered stronger storms during the daytime. This should help to limit high temperatures to about 80 degrees. Nights will remain warm and humid throughout the week, and Wednesday night will be no exception.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the mid-80s and warm nights. Winds will continue to come from the south, perhaps gusting to about 20 mph during the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

If you like warm and humid weather, have I got a deal for you! This pattern will persist through the weekend. As skies likely become a bit more sunny, we can expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the region. It may be a pretty good beach weekend. For the MS-150 riders you can likely expect a tail wind on Saturday and a cross-tail wind on Sunday. All in all, the only hazard will likely be UV rays, so be sure to wear some sunscreen. Unfortunately for the IRONMAN competition in The Woodlands, while I’m not concerned about rain, dewpoints around 70 degrees will make for very difficult conditions for the long run.

Next week

This warm and humid pattern will likely persist into next week, although there is a chance of a cold front pushing all the way through the area by the following Wednesday or Thursday. I don’t want to over-promise, since that is so far away. However I do have a bit of hope that we are not yet quite done with dry air in Houston

In brief: Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Wanted to jump in with a quick holiday post so people are not surprised if thunderstorms pop up today, and by the possibility of some stronger storms this evening and during the overnight hours.

The remnants from a line of storms over Central Texas are currently approaching the Houston region this morning, and this will produce some showers and thunderstorms generally west of the city this morning, including in the Katy region. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late morning and early afternoon hours across Houston, but there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance you don’t see rain until later today or this evening.

However, by this afternoon a weak front will sag into the region, stalling over the city of Houston. This will serve as a focus for the development of thunderstorms this evening, and during the overnight hours. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, with the potential for damaging winds. Right now the dynamics are most favorable for thunderstorms north of Interstate 10, but I would not rule out thunderstorms anywhere in the metro area tonight and through at least Monday morning. On the Excitable Dogs Scale from 1 to 10, let’s call this a 7.5.

Rainfall amounts are going to be highly variable, but accumulations from this afternoon through midday on Monday could range from 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with the risk of higher totals. I would not rule out a few bullseyes of 5 inches or more somewhere in the metro area. This has the potential to cause some street flooding by the Monday morning commute. I’m going to hold off on issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, but this is something we’ll be watching today and update if warranted.

In brief: In this update we take a look at the forecast for Easter Sunday, which does not look too impactful for the greater Houston area. Nonetheless we are likely to see rain showers, and a few sporadic thunderstorms, on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Hi everyone, just wanted to jump in on this Saturday morning to provide a final look at the forecast for Easter Sunday (unless the outlook changes dramatically). We are still looking at a warm, mostly cloudy day today with temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain today and tonight is rather unlikely, so there are really no concerns beyond the relatively high (for April) humidity.

The forecast begins to change some on Sunday, when a weak front will sag toward the area. Most of our high resolution modeling suggests that Sunday morning should be fine, aside from the slim possibility of a few stray, light showers. Chances for showers and few thunderstorms increase during the afternoon hours for the western portion of the Houston metro area, and then spreading into the entire region during the evening. It would not surprise me if the best chance of rain for most locations in Houston comes during the overnight hours, into Monday morning, as the front stalls over the city.

In terms of impacts, most of Houston can expect between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with the possibility of some sporadic thunderstorms. In terms of severe weather, the primary risk is damaging winds. But truth be told, overall, this does not look like a particularly threatening event. I’m hopeful that most of Houston will be able to enjoy outdoor activities through the morning and, possibly, much of the afternoon hours on Sunday. One can never be quite certain with setups like this, however, with a slow-moving front moving into an atmosphere with a decent amount of moisture.

If the outlook changes significantly, we will update this evening or on Sunday morning.