Eric Berger

I hope I don’t regret this prediction, but the writing is on the wall for the end of summer. After seeing our first significant front last weekend, another is on the way this weekend. Yes, it is still possible for the region to experience hot weather, but as the days get shorter the opportunities are more fleeting. It looks like we’ll have a decent shot to hit 90 degrees on this Friday. But after that? I don’t know. We might be done for 2023.

Climatologically it remains possible. The latest date in the calendar year that Houston has hit 90 degrees is October 29, back in 1991. Don’t get too excited, because the city has reached 89 degrees multiple times in November before. Anyway, it was a terribly long and hot summer in Houston. And now it finally appears to be over.

Tuesday

The story today is the potential for rain, with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The remnants of Hurricane Lidia (from the Pacific Ocean) have merged with a low pressure system in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm this week, and the seven-day outlook map below is a little concerning for Texas. But you needn’t be concerned. This is not September, it’s October, and there is a reason why we talk about September as a realistic end of the threat of hurricanes striking Texas. We can see that with this system, as the overall flow will pull it to the northeast this week.

Texas is still going to see some rain from this tropical system, particularly coastal areas. South Texas might receive as much as 1 or 2 inches, but closer to Houston you’re unlikely to see much precipitation if you live north of Interstate 10, and perhaps 0.5 to 1 inch if you live closer to the coast. Mostly cloudy skies associated with the tropical system should help to keep a lid on temperatures for the middle of this week. Look for highs today of around 80 degrees, with light southerly winds. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Another cloudy day with the potential for showers during the daytime. Look for highs in the mid-70s, with easterly winds. Rain chances slacken by Wednesday evening, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

Thursday

Some slight rain chances will linger on Thursday, but with the tropical system pulling away we should see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

With sunny skies and a warm southerly flow, temperatures on Friday will have a chance to pop upward, toward 90 degrees, before the arrival of the next cold front. The front should arrive later in the day, with colder and drier air pushing all the way to the coast overnight into Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty glorious. We’ll see mostly if not completely sunny skies, with high temperatures likely in the upper 70s. The air will be plenty dry, with low humidity. Winds will be out of the north, generally at 10 to 15 mph, with gustier conditions on Saturday. So aside from the wind, it will be nigh on perfect.

Next week

We’ll stay pleasantly fall-like through the early part of next week, with highs of around 80 degrees and fairly dry air. By the middle of the week we may see the return of some humidity and temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. And after that? Well, the crystal ball starts to get cloudy I’m afraid.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally fallen into the upper 60s across most of the metro area this morning, and we are experiencing but a small taste of the glorious fall weather ahead this weekend. The coolest weather will arrive on Saturday and Sunday, when overnight lows dip into the 50s for pretty much the entire area, with plenty of dry air to boot. In this post I’m also going to take an early look at weather conditions for an annular eclipse that will take place across Texas on October 14, during the late morning hours.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s today. Winds will come from the northeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will feel moderately drier, but not exactly fall-like. But don’t worry, that’s coming later with a reinforcing front on Friday night into Saturday. Rain chances are effectively zero, and will be that way at least through next Tuesday. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 60s for most.

Saturday

Saturday will be partly sunny and cooler, with highs generally in the mid-70s. Winds will be a bit gusty, perhaps reaching 20 mph at times from the north. Some clouds will remain overnight as low temperatures drop into the mid- to upper-50s for most of the region, with plenty of dry air.

Sunday

For those of us who can’t quite cotton summer weather in Houston, this will be the nicest day in at least five months. Look for sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s, dry air, and light winds. I mean, you can’t beat it. Lows on Sunday night should again drop into the upper 50s for most.

Next week

As the onshore flow resumes sometime on Sunday evening, or so, we’ll begin a gradual warming trend. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s for the most part next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances return by Wednesday, or so, likely influenced by tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This part of the forecast, and associated rain chances, are fairly vague. However I am fairly confident that another cold front will arrive later in the week, by Friday or so, to end the rain and bring cooler and drier air. Probably not quite as cool as this weekend, but still nice.

Annular eclipse

On Saturday October 14 an annular eclipse will appear over select regions of Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. (A handy map can be found here). Houston lies just north of the area that will see the full annular eclipse, but still nearly 90 percent of the Sun will be covered just before noon. It will, briefly at least, feel notably cooler. An annular eclipse occurs when the Moon passes in front of the Sun, but does not block its entirety, leaving a ‘ring of fire’ in the sky. It is crucial to use solar eclipse glasses when viewing the Sun during the eclipse.

As I mentioned above, we should see a frontal passage on Friday-ish. If this does indeed occur, there is a high likelihood of clear skies for the annular eclipse in the Houston region. I would peg the likelihood at about 80 percent or greater, but we are far enough away that some uncertainty remains.

Fall is on the way as a line of showers and thunderstorms advances southward through the Houston area from north to south this morning. These storms are already moving through The Woodlands, and will affect the central part of Houston during rush hour this morning. They should largely be offshore by or before noon. I’m expecting overall accumulations of 1-2 inches, but the concern is high rainfall rates.

Because of this, there is the potential for street flooding along with these storms, and we are therefore keeping a Stage 1 flood alert in effect for the entire metro area through noon this morning. Please take extra care when driving around the city this morning with the potential for water on low-lying roadways and traffic delays. There may also be frequent lightning and gusty winds before the storms pass.

Thursday

After the main line of storms passes this morning, this afternoon should bring high temperatures of around 80 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies, and winds shifting to come from the north. Additional scattered showers will be possible this afternoon before coming to an end this evening. Low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees on Thursday night, with the air feeling slightly cooler.

Friday

Friday will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, and high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints will drop a bit as drier air filters into the area, but we’re going to need to wait until a reinforcing front arrives on Friday night to really bring low humidity and cooler weather. Rain chances, overall, are low to non-existent. Lows should drop into the mid-60s for most areas on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be our first fall-like weather of the season and it’s going to be pretty glorious. Saturday will bring partly cloudy skies, with highs likely in the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the north at about 15 mph, with higher gusts. Clearing skies by Saturday night should allow lows to drop into the upper 50s on Sunday night. Sunday looks amazing, with lesser winds and sunny skies to go along with highs in the upper 70s. Sunday night should be cool again, with lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Next week

Highs will start to recover into the 80s by Monday or Tuesday of next week, but at this point it does not appear as though temperatures are going back into the 90s. I’m still watching for the potential for showers in association with tropical moisture by mid- to late next week, but as of now it looks like the focus of that activity will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. At this point it’s likely that another front will arrive to bring some cooler and drier weather into the region next weekend. That’s not certain at this point, but I am hopeful.

Good morning. Much of the region saw beneficial rains on Tuesday, with widespread accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inch. However some areas, particularly in Brazoria County, saw in excess of 6 inches of rainfall. Conditions today will continue to favor the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly to the west of Interstate 45, including the Brazoria, Fort Bend, Wharton, and Matagorda County areas.

With this in mind, we’re extending our Stage 1 flood alert to the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday evening. In addition we’re raising the flood alert to Stage 2 for Brazoria and Wharton Counties, which lie to the southwest of Houston, and includes the cities of Sugar Land and Angleton. There is the potential for another 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in these areas for the period from now until Thursday night, and this could cause flash flooding. Please continue to be aware of weather and road conditions for the next couple of days.

Wednesday

As noted above, the overall pattern favors the majority of storms forming over the western half of the Houston metro area today, as this will be where a majority of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing inland. Look for on and off showers and thunderstorms today, with the potential for some street flooding. High temperatures today will reach the low 80s for most of the area, with mostly cloudy skies, and occasionally gusty winds from the southeast. Rain chances will slacken somewhat overnight, but not go away.

Thursday

A day that looks similar, in terms of overall weather to Wednesday. The difference that instead of the storms moving inland from the Gulf, there will be a more north-to-south movement in association with an advancing front. In any case, we’ll continue the flood alerts through Thursday evening as the potential for heavy rainfall will remain in place. High temperatures will again reach the low- to mid-80s, but with the front’s influence low temperatures will probably drop into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will linger into Friday morning, but after that we should start to see some partially clearing skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s. Around this time you may be thinking well, that wasn’t much of a front. Fortunately, a reinforcing front is on the way Friday night and Saturday morning that will truly usher in fall-like conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Northerly winds should turn fairly gusty by Saturday morning, bringing much drier air into the region. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will drop noticeably during the day. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s for inland areas, and Sunday looks to be just about perfect. Expect sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs in the mid-70s. We’re officially declaring Sunday to be Fall Day in Houston. (If you’re wondering, yes, we’re trying to organize a Fall Day gathering again this year, but it won’t be this weekend.) Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 50s for most of the area.

Next week

We’ll see the onshore flow resume by Monday or so, and that should set the stage for warmer days in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the week. There are two things I’m watching for, one of which is a potential surge in tropical moisture during the second half of next week. This would be in association with a tropical system that crosses Mexico from the Pacific Ocean and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. For now the details are fairly vague, and it’s possible that this entire mess remains mostly offshore. Additionally, it looks like another front of some sort should arrive some time next weekend to cool us down and dry out the atmosphere. We’ll see.