Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s weather will remain temperate for the remainder of the work week, with high temperatures generally in the 60s. Later this week an upper-level low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the area, especially on Friday night, before we clear out and cool down later on Saturday. Looking way into the future, I’m still seeing the likelihood of mild weather for Christmas—but at 13 days out take that forecast with a pinch of eggnog.

Tuesday

Today will be sunny, with light easterly winds. Highs will generally push into the upper 60s today, and overnight lows will only drop to around 50 degrees. For December, this is definitely mild weather.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase a bit, we’ll see at least some partly cloudy skies. This should help to moderate temperatures a bit, holding highs in the mid-60s. We’ll continue to see an easterly flow with winds of about 10 mph and slightly higher gusts. Nights will be mild, in the low 50s generally.

Friday

This should be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Rain chances won’t be zero during the daytime, but they should be fairly low before the afternoon hours. Then, especially from Friday evening through Saturday morning, we’ll see widespread showers ahead of, and along with the next front. I don’t think we’re looking at any appreciable flooding, as most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. However, this rain definitely has the potential to put a damper on any holiday activities you have planned from the period of Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Saturday

Temperatures will fall to around 50 degrees on Saturday morning, and will struggle to climb out of the 50s during the afternoon hours as northerly winds blow into the area, bringing cooler and drier air. We may see a bit of sunshine on Saturday afternoon as skies start to clear, and any lingering showers move away. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high temperature of around 60 degrees. Winds out of the north, gusting to perhaps 15 to 20 mph, will keep things feeling on the chilly side. Sunday night looks rather chilly, with lows in Houston dropping to around 40 degrees.

Next week through the Christmas holiday

The early part of next week will remain on the chilly side, with highs generally in the low 60s and lows in the 40s. But we should see a warming trend toward next weekend, with highs perhaps reaching 70 degrees by Friday or so. And after that? As of now there is no appreciable signal for cooler air, so at this point I expect we’ll see a warmer than normal Christmas, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees. We shall see.

Blowing up a tornado

Last weekend saw a tragic outbreak of tornadoes in Tennessee that killed six people and injured more than 80. Some interesting video has emerged of one of these tornadoes striking a power station, and this appears to disrupt the the circulation of the tornado. This has led to some speculation on whether it’s possible the “blow up” a tornado. Over on The Eyewall, Matt dives into this phenomenon.

Good morning. And it’s a chilly one, with temperatures in the 30s across the entire metro area away from the immediate coast. Some locations, such as Conroe and Cleveland, are even experiencing a light freeze. Our weather will now turn warmer, with daily high temperatures that should more or less remain in the 60s for the foreseeable future. Other things covered in today’s post: the potential for rainfall on Friday and Saturday of this week, and our first Christmas Day forecast below.

Monday

For anyone getting going this morning, it’s a cold start. However, at least those winds are light, as as they’re coming from the east we’re going to see a warmer flow today. With sunny skies we can expect high temperatures to climb into the low 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be more moderate, generally dropping into the 40s for Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

With high pressure off to our east, we can expect a generally easterly flow for the middle of this week. What does that mean? Tuesday will start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see increasing cloud cover through Wednesday and Thursday. Highs each day will be in the 60s, although there will be some variation depending on cloud cover during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will generally drop into the low 50s. So all in all, pretty moderate weather for December. One thing to note: If you live on the coast, tides will be higher than normal due to the persistent easterly winds.

Friday and Saturday

We’re going to see a favorable setup for rainfall this weekend as an approaching front combines with a reasonably moist atmosphere. The details are still a bit hazy, but Friday will be mostly cloudy, with a modest chance of showers in the morning, and higher odds during the afternoon and overnight hours. The front itself should move through Friday night, at some point. But it won’t immediately scour all of the moisture out of the atmosphere, so some light, lingering showers will be possible during the day on Saturday. All told I expect the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and on Saturday likely in the 50s.

Next week

Sunday, at this point, looks to be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. So that’s probably the best day for outdoor activities this weekend, if you can swing it. I’d expect to see partly sunny skies and highs in the 60s through at least the middle of next week, with low to non-existent rain chances. Nights will be chilly, mostly in the 40s.

Christmas Day forecast

We’re still 14 days out from the Christmas holiday, so a specific weather forecast is necessarily going to be stuffed with caveats like a stocking. It looks like we’ll continue to see fairly chilly nights through the middle of next week. By around Dec. 21, however, we should start to warm up. So what happens after that? Understandably, there is not a strong signal in the models right now, but if anything they’re leaning toward slightly warmer weather through Christmas Day, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. At this point we absolutely cannot rule out significant rainfall, but there’s no real signal for strong showers.

Good morning. Houston faces a couple of warmer days before a strong cold front comes barreling through on Saturday afternoon and evening. This front, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms, will quickly drop temperatures and humidity. This will set the stage for winter-like conditions for much of next week. Monday morning looks especially cold, with a light freeze possible for some inland areas outside of Houston’s urban core.

Friday

Today will be warm for December, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and mostly cloudy skies. We’ll see a consistent southerly flow all day, with winds at the surface of about 10 mph. Rain chances also return, with perhaps a 30 or 40 percent chance of showers this morning into the early afternoon hours. While these will mostly be light showers, it’s possible that one or two thunderstorms might pop up. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday

Another warm day, with highs in the upper 70s. A few locations may hit 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will be pretty thick. The front should reach areas north and west of Houston, such as Katy and The Woodlands, between 4 and 6 pm, and push off the coast between 7 and 10 pm. The odds of severe weather now look quite low, but it’s still possible that a few storms will accompany the front as it pushes through. Most areas will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but a few isolated locations could pick up one-half inch, or more. Much drier air moves in after the front’s passage, with brisk northerly winds gusting to 35 mph or higher Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be especially blustery along the coast. Lows will drop into the 40s.

Sunday

This will be a cold, sunny, and breezy day with highs in the upper 50s. Winds will gradually back off during the day, becoming fairly calm by the evening hours. These clear skies and light winds will set the stage for ideal cooling overnight, with lows dropping into the 30s in Houston. For locations in Montgomery and Waller counties, a light freeze is possible—the first of the season.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly typical for December. We’ll see highs generally in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s as well as partly sunny skies. Some rain chances return by the end of the work week. After this Saturday, I’m not sure when we’ll see highs in the 70s again.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and stay warm on Sunday night!

Before getting into the forecast this morning, I wanted to share a couple of observations about Houston’s weather of late. Let’s start with the acorns. Oh, the acorns. They’re still falling. I went back and checked this morning, and I first wrote about the mast year for acorns we’re experiencing back on November 2. That’s five weeks ago, and they were already thick as thieves by that point. If there’s a naturalist, arborist, or other expert out there who can quantify this year’s acorn crop I’d love to hear about it. I just can’t believe they’re still falling. Will they ever stop?

The other thing one cannot really miss, if you’re outdoors during the early evening hours, is the grand sunsets we’ve been experiencing. Matt has been noticing them too, and says that they’re due to a thin layer of cirrus clouds. These are the wispy clouds high in the atmosphere, which are formed entirely of ice crystals, and often indicate the presence of the jet stream. You can see these clouds in the lovely photos below, sent in by readers. In the case of our recent sunsets, there are enough of these clouds to produce vivid colors by scattering some light, but not so many that they block out too much of the Sun’s last, dying rays. We’re likely to see more such sunsets this winter with an active jet streak.

Alright, on to the forecast, which is somewhat of a mixed bag with a lot of people undoubtedly having pre-holiday plans this weekend.

Wednesday

Today should be a pleasant and mostly sunny winter day. Look for highs in the mid-60s, with light easterly winds. Those winds will begin to turn southeasterly tonight as high pressure near Texas shifts further to the east. We should still see one more cool night, however, as lows drop into the upper 40s for most of the Houston metro area, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Thursday

Southerly winds should become more pronounced on Thursday, and we’ll start to see some moisture return to the atmosphere. This may result in a few clouds as highs nudge up to around 70 degrees. With a warmer, southerly flow in place lows on Thursday night will probably only drop to around 60 degrees. A few very light, scattered showers may be possible overnight.

Friday

This will be a warmer and more humid day, with highs in the mid-70s and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some very light showers will again be possible due to the atmospheric moisture, but I expect them to be rather scattered. Temperatures on Friday night will be downright warm, only falling into the upper 60s for most of the region.

Saturday

Like many of you, probably, my family has some outdoor plans during the daytime on Saturday and the timing of a front is not making for easy planning. While there’s still not great consistency, the forecast models are trending slightly later with the frontal passage, probably putting it some time during the afternoon hours. So here’s what I think I know. Saturday morning will start out warm and muggy, and much of Houston may get into the mid- or upper-70s. At some point we’re going to see a storm system, perhaps an intact line of storms, perhaps a broken line. I don’t feel confident yet in saying whether this will occur during the late-morning or afternoon hours yet. But by or before sunset these storms should clear the area, with much drier and colder air moving in. I’m not concerned about rainfall accumulations, as I expect most areas to receive perhaps 0.5 inch or less, but we can’t dismiss the possibility of some of these daytime thunderstorms becoming severe due to the somewhat unstable air mass. Our confidence in the forecast will increase during the next day or two as we get within the realm of higher-resolution modeling.

Sunday

Overnight lows will drop into the 40s heading into Sunday morning, with gusty conditions. Wake-up temperatures on Sunday morning will “feel” like they’re in the 30s due to these winds. So bundle up if you’re going to be out and about. Sunday’s high temperatures will likely only reach the upper 50s even with lots of sunshine. Absolute temperatures on Monday morning will be even colder, probably down to around 40 degrees in Houston. But with less wind they’ll be more tolerable.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week should remain on the chilly side, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. There’s no sign of a warm-up in the near term, friends. Maybe don an ugly Christmas sweater early?