In brief: Strong thunderstorms are approaching Houston from the southwest and will soon spread into the metro area. The period of 2 pm to 6 pm should see the strongest storms, with hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and some street flooding possible. Please take this threat seriously.
As expected, we are seeing the development of strong thunderstorms to the southwest of Houston this afternoon. These storms will gradually progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours before they exit to the east. At this point the most severe weather appears likely to occur along and south of Interstate 10.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in place for the entire Houston metro area today. (National Weather Service)
In terms of timing, I anticipate that showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop widely across much of the Houston metro area by around 1:30 to 2 pm. A more organized line of severe thunderstorms will subsequently march across the area from west to east from 3 to 6 pm. The strongest storms should be east of Houston before sunset, with some light showers possibly lingering a little while longer.
There is a fairly high risk of hail with these storms, particularly along and south of Interstate 10. The National Weather Service indicates that a few areas may see hail as large as an apple, but for most locations any hail that falls should be smaller than this. Damaging winds are also possible, as well as a few isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain will also accompany these storms, but the most intense showers should progress fairly quickly. Thus, while some street flooding is possible, we are not overly concerned about a significant flooding event.
We will clear out this evening, and then have a couple of calm days before rain, and possibly storm, chances return Thursday. Stay safe out there, y’all!
In brief: Storms are likely in Houston today, after noon. The line of showers and thunderstorms may hit the area during the critical hours after school, or during the early portions of the evening commute, so please remain weather aware. After that we will have a couple of calmer weather days.
Monday
A number of ingredients for severe weather are stacking up this morning across the Houston area, including atmospheric moisture, instability, shear, and a trigger in the form of a weak front that will push through. All of these factors are likely to produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe, that will move through Houston from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours today.
There is an ‘enhanced’ risk of severe weather for parts of the Houston metro area today. (NOAA)
In terms of timing, I expect conditions to warm and muggy this morning, with temperatures in the 80s and mostly cloudy skies. The action is likely to pick up shortly after noon, to the west of Houston. Locations such as Katy and The Woodlands are like to see the onset of storms between 2 and 4 pm, with the line moving into central Houston later this afternoon, perhaps between 3 and 5 pm, and reaching the coast between 4 and 6 pm. I realize the timing here in unfortunate, likely affecting parts of the metro area during school pick-up, afternoon activities, and the evening commute. Please check the radar before venturing out—conditions will be better in some locations than others.
With regard to impact, the line of storms should be fairly progressive as it moves through the area. So the worst of the rain, lightning, and other impacts, including damaging winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes, should not last too long. But these conditions may be briefly intense. Some street flooding is also possible during the strongest storms, in which up to 3 inches may fall fairly quickly. After the initial line of storms showers may linger for another hour or two. The bottom line is that today will be a day to be weather aware, especially from noon to around sunset. Not all areas will be affected by severe storms, but it does look like a fairly good chunk of the region will be.
Severe hail is most likely to the west of Houston. (NOAA)
Temperatures tonight should fall into the upper 60s with mostly cloudy skies.
Tuesday
Expect sunnier skies and calmer weather in the wake of the front. Highs will reach about 90 degrees, aided by sunshine and the slight drier air that will allow them to pop up. Winds will be fairly light, from the north. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 60s again for most of the metro area, away from the coast.
Wednesday
Another sunny day with highs near 90 degrees. Winds will shift to come from the southeast during the day time, most likely, allowing for a slightly warmer and more humid night in the low 70s.
Lows in the 60s on Wednesday morning will not be unwelcome. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
More storm chances return on Thursday as the atmosphere becomes more amenable with passing disturbances. Right now let’s call for a likely chance of rain, but with lower confidence in the details. Expect highs in the mid-80s.
Friday
A chance of showers lingers, but the signal is not as strong for Friday. Look for highs in the upper 80s. Details to come.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks mostly sunny. Saturday should bring temperatures in the upper 80s, with Sunday likely reaching the lower 90s. I can’t entirely rule out some passing showers on Saturday, but overall chances are near zero on Sunday.
Next week
It’s difficult to say too much, but at this point I expect summer lite conditions next week, with highs generally in the low 90s. High pressure looks to be mainly in control, but we’ll have to see if that actually comes to pass.
In brief: We’re likely to see the development of widespread showers, in addition to some thunderstorms, later this morning in the Houston area. Activity should be most pronounced this afternoon before the area likely starts to clear out for a bit this evening. If you’re taking mom out, bring an umbrella and check the radar just to be safe.
A lot of the ingredients necessary for moderate to heavy rainfall are percolating in the atmosphere near Houston right now. We’ve got plenty of moisture and instability. There’s also the impetus for lift, to carry the warm air at the surface higher into the atmosphere. What this all means is that the stage is set for showers and thunderstorms later today. But what will happen when the curtain actually rises?
HRRR model shows how today’s radar may develop, with a forecast for reflectivity at 2 pm CT Sunday. (Weather Bell)
Generally, I expect activity to develop to the southwest of the Houston metro area later this morning, and then push into the central portions of the region including Harris County, before or around noon. These showers and thunderstorms should gradually lift north during the afternoon hours, and I expect rain chances to subside almost entirely by sunset. I’m not anticipating anything too crazy today, with most of the region likely picking up a few tenths of an inch of rain to maybe 2 inches. However, there could be some higher bullseyes that cause temporary street flooding. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with plenty of cloud cover. Mom doesn’t need to worry about a sunburn today, so she’s got that going for her, which is nice.
Monday should see some additional shower and thunderstorm chances, although I don’t feel entirely confident in the details. It also looks as though the potential for severe storms will be a little higher on Monday or Monday evening, with damaging winds and hail a slight possibility. We’ll have a comprehensive update on all of that for you early on Monday morning.
In brief: There are several things to watch for in the forecast, including hot temperatures today, some isolated thunderstorms tonight, and the potential for rain on Sunday and Monday in the absence of high pressure. Also, if you enjoy dry air, then Friday night and Saturday morning will be your time to shine.
Thursday
Houston will experience one more warm and particularly humid day today before we cool off slightly. Whether temperatures hit 90 degrees today will depend partly on sky cover this afternoon, when skies should be partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
By this afternoon a front will be approaching the area, and this may serve as a trigger for some isolated thunderstorms later this evening. I think the most likely scenario is that these storms weaken before pushing into the Houston metro area, to the west of Katy and north of Tomball. However, there is a slight risk of development over Houston itself, in which case we may experience some briefly heavy rainfall and the potential for hail. So the risk is low, but non-zero this evening. Lows tonight should drop into the 70s in Houston.
The HRRR model forecast for 11 pm CT tonight shows the potential for isolated thunderstorms. (Weather Bell)
Friday
Drier air will slowly filter in to the region during the daytime on Friday, when I expect to see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the northwest at about 10 mph with some higher gusts. Lows on Friday night drop into the upper 60s to 70 degrees for most locations.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend looks fine, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints should reach their low point on Saturday morning, so if you’re someone who likes drier air, that will be a good time to be out and about. As you might know, Houston doesn’t get much (ok, any) of that during a typical June, July, or August. Lows will drop to about 70 degrees on Saturday night as the onshore flow returns.
Sunday
Mother’s Day won’t bring much sunshine, alas. In fact as high pressure exits the area, our atmosphere will open up to a series of disturbances that will bring decent rain chances through the middle of next week. For Sunday, this means scattered to widespread showers. There is a risk of heavy rainfall, particularly north of Interstate 10, but for the most part these should be reasonable rains I think. In any case, please consider the possibility of showers on Sunday as you make plans for mom. Highs will be about 80 degrees with returning humidity.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)
Next week
We’ll see additional disturbances next week, and while the details are difficult to pin down, I expect to see a healthy chance of rain on Monday (highest), Tuesday (lowest), and Wednesday (medium) of next week. Regardless, it’s not going to be wall-to-wall rain, as there should be a fair amount of sunshine mixed in as well, with highs generally in the upper-80s. Rain chances diminish toward the end of the week, with highs likely around 90 degrees to go along with warm, humid nights.
