At least there’s this: We have finally passed the peak of summer

I’m going to be real up front. The Houston-area forecast calls for more of the same very hot and sunny weather, with a lack of rain, through the middle of August. So at this point of the summer we’re grasping at straws. The one hopeful bit of news I can offer is that, on Tuesday, the Greater Houston region passed through the climatological midpoint of summer. Quite simply, this means that historically yesterday was the hottest day of the year.

Most of the Houston passed its climatologically “hottest” day of the year on Tuesday. We’re now (slowly) rolling downhill toward fall. (Brian Brettschneider)

That does not mean our weather is going to change right away, it really just means that we are headed in the right direction toward fall. We are about one month away from being able to realistically start looking for our first fall front. Typically this comes at some point during the second half of September, but this varies widely. Anyway, if you’re tired of the unrelenting heat, just know that it will eventually relent.

Over the last couple of days we have also been talking about increasing wildfire risk. In recognition of this, both Harris County and Fort Bend County issued burn bans on Tuesday. The burn ban, essentially, means that no outdoor burning is allowed, except in an enclosure that contains all flames and/or sparks. At this point all of the Houston region’s counties, with the exception of Brazoria County, are under a burn ban. Expect these to remain in place at least for a couple of weeks, if not longer.

Wednesday

Excessive heat remains the name of the game for the greater Houston area. High temperatures today will reach about 100 degrees in Houston, with slightly higher conditions for inland areas, and slightly cooler nearer the coast. The only really noticeable change has been somewhat stronger daytime winds, up to about 10 mph from the south, with higher gusts. Skies will, of course, be sunny, with a less than 10 percent chance of rain. It is the same as it has been since the start of August.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

With high pressure remaining in place, there really is little change. If anything, temperatures may tick up a degree or so this weekend. So, super hot.

Our afternoon heat will remain at extreme levels through the weekend, at least. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The early part of next week should bring more of the same. Realistically, we don’t have much hope for a pattern change for at least the next 10 days. After that there are some hopeful signs in some of the models, in terms of potentially better rain chances and somewhat cooler days. However I have to be honest, the current pattern is pretty well locked into place.

The tropics

We have not written much about the Atlantic hurricane season because there has not been much to say, and certainly no threats to the Gulf of Mexico. That continues to be the case, but we’re reaching the point where we can start to expect some uptick in activity in the Atlantic basin. If you want all of the nitty gritty, daily details, be sure to check out our sister site, The Eyewall.

With the persistence of heat and drought, wildfire risks are on the rise

Good morning. Alas, our forecast remains largely unchanged. High pressure is dominant today. High pressure will be dominant tomorrow. And that persistent ridge is going to remain into place at least through early next week and very likely beyond. This means a couple of things:

  • First of all, please continue to practice heat safety. It is hot, hot, hot during the midday hours and you should know the signs of heat related illnesses.
  • Secondly, we’re continuing to see high to very high fire danger conditions across much of the Houston region, especially for Montgomery County and areas further inland. The state has seen dozens of wildfires recently, and the number is on the uptick.

Also, I want to mention again that we’ve released an updated version of the Space City Weather app for mobile phones and tablets, and it is one we’re really proud of because it brings a lot of the features you’ve requested. It’s also the one way to ensure that you never miss a post during inclement weather. Which, presumably, we’ll have one day again in the future. You can find the app in both Apple’s App Store and the Google Play Store

Fire danger forecast for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. (Texas A&M Forest Service)

Tuesday

At this point, do I really need to write it out? It feels like we’re in the movie Groundhog Day. Highs today will be around 100 degrees, or slightly above. Skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be out of the south, at about 10 mph, picking up a bit during the evening and overnight hours. Rain chances are 5 to 10 percent. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 80s.

Wednesday through Friday

Absolutely no change.

Saturday and Sunday

It’s still difficult to discern a meaningful change in the sensible weather.

High heat continues next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

I’ve saved the bad news for last. Whereas a couple of days ago we had some hope that this persistent high-pressure pattern may break down somewhat as we got toward the middle of August, at this point I’m just not seeing it. Sure, we might see some rain chances return by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. But the odds of meaningful rainfall at this point remain low. And temperatures still look blazing hot for the foreseeable future.

It’s going to be very, very hot again this week—but here’s why things will eventually change

Good morning. I hope you had a wonderful weekend. While I would love to say that this is the week that Houston’s heat finally breaks, I cannot. We are actually amidst the climatologically warmest part of the year in Houston. From the period of July 29 through August 12, the average high peaks at 96 degrees, and the average low at 76 degrees.

However, after this week, we really will start to slowly slide toward fall. That is largely driven by shorter days and the Sun rising lower in the sky. Houston’s day length is already nearly 40 minutes shorter than it was at the peak of summer, and the Sun lower in the sky. By the end of this month, the day will be an hour and 17 minutes shorter, and instead of the Sun reaching a zenith of 84 degrees at midday, it will max out at 69 degrees. So fall is coming, if slowly.

But not this week. High pressure will more or less hold sway, and there’s not much else to say. Highs will be around 100 degrees each day, and if we consult the wet bulb globe temperature forecast, which factors in humidity, winds, and other variables, we can see that daily heat will reach extreme levels. Sorry, it’s going to be pretty miserable. Please practice heat safety.

Anything of 90 degrees represents extreme heat. (Weather Bell)

Monday

High temperatures today will reach 100 degrees, or above, for pretty much the entire metro area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are less than 10 percent, and winds will blow at just 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

Our forecast is the same—bleak, barren, and hot.

Saturday and Sunday

If you were looking for a major pattern change by this weekend, unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. Forecast highs will be on the order of 100 degrees, or hotter for inland areas, with mostly sunny skies.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. Yeah, not great. (Weather Bell)

Next week

But what about next week? Is there hope? Careful readers will recall Matt writing on Friday that the heat may relax a bit by the second half of August. Global models do start to trend temperatures down a bit in seven to nine days from now, but only slightly. Rain chances also look to be on the upswing. However, these trends are far from definitive. I’m hopeful that this will be the last really, really hot week. But I’m not ready to firmly predict that yet.

A conversation with our sponsor, Reliant, on managing electricity usage during this heat wave

Hi everyone. We have reached early August, and if the past is anything to go by, our region has another six to eight weeks of really hot temperatures this summer. Certainly, the near-term forecast shows nothing but relentless heat.

One of the major downsides of excessive heat is the need to cool our homes continuously, day and night. This can lead to higher-than-normal usage, resulting in higher electricity bills. As you may know, Reliant is the long-time sponsor of Space City Weather, and today I wanted to share a conversation I had with them about things you can do to take a little bit of the sting out of your bill. So here are my questions, and their responses.

Why am I using so much electricity?

Many factors contribute to higher-than-normal electricity usage — most notably right now, the outside temperature. The hotter it is outside, the harder your air conditioner works to keep you cool inside. HVAC systems can account for up to 60 percent of your home’s electricity consumption in the summer, which is why we can experience seasonal bill spikes. You can learn about the top factors affecting your electricity usage and calculate the impact those have on your summer electricity costs here.

What are some strategies to manage my electric usage during the hottest months?

We all know this summer has been hotter than normal, but we still have a lot of summer left with temperatures typically reaching their peak in August. While we can’t control the outside temperature, we can find ways to stay comfortable AND in control of our electricity usage. The tips below will help you stay cool while conserving energy, ultimately helping you save money.

  • Follow the 4-by-4 rule: If no one is going to be home for more than 4 hours, adjust the temperature 4 degrees higher while you’re gone.
  • Use ceiling fans rotating counterclockwise to help circulate cool air, which can help you feel 4 to 6 degrees cooler.
  • Use blinds or curtains to reduce solar heat gain by up to 50 percent. Blackout curtains are especially helpful in keeping rooms cool by blocking direct sunlight.
  • Avoid using appliances that generate heat during the hottest part of the day. Plan to wash or dry clothes and use your dishwasher in the early morning or late evening hours when it’s cooler outside.  Wait to use the dishwasher until you have a full load.
  • Get regular tune-ups for your HVAC system to ensure it’s running at its best, including checking and replacing air filters regularly. In the summer, this can be as often as once a month.
  • Stay informed about your usage. Using the Reliant app, you can track usage, control your Google Nest thermostat, pay your bill and set up automated text and email alerts on the go.

How has the Texas electricity grid been holding up this summer?

Texas has been experiencing record heat this summer, and ERCOT has broken numerous peak load records. However, the grid has been performing well. Additional details are available on ERCOT’s website.

Why have there been calls for conservation on some days?

Demand response is an important tool for both retail electricity providers, like Reliant, and ERCOT to manage supply when extreme summer heat creates high demand across Texas. At times, electricity providers might proactively ask customers to conserve for a short period to help manage supply and costs, or ERCOT can issue a statewide call for conservation to balance overall supply and demand.

Reliant also has a program that rewards customers for adjusting their thermostat and reducing energy usage called Degrees of Difference. Read more in this post from SCW.

Is there help available for those who need it?

Yes! Reliant has 22 Beat the Heat centers across Houston that are free and open to the public, providing a comfortable place for the community to stay cool and safe, while decreasing energy usage at home. Reliant partners with the Houston Health Department and Precinct 2 to beat the heat together. For more details on locations and hours, visit reliant.com/beattheheat.

What happens if I am having trouble paying my bill?

No one should put their health at risk by choosing to not run their AC when the weather gets this hot because they are afraid of a higher-than-normal bill. From payment extensions to average monthly billing, we have options available. Reliant’s CARE program also helps customers who are facing financial hardship. Reliant has committed $1 million in funding this year and more than $17 million in statewide agency assistance since 2002. Anyone who needs help paying their electricity bill this summer can also call 2-1-1 within Texas or visit 211texas.org.

Anything else to add?

We hope the rest of this summer will be uneventful but rest assured, Reliant and Space City Weather will be there for you. If you’re a Reliant customer and need assistance, please reach out to us directly. We’re available 24/7 via live phone support at 1-866-222-7100, online chat, or on the Reliant app. We also want to thank Eric and Matt for their commitment to keeping us informed, no matter what the weather brings. Stay cool, SCW readers!