Eric Berger

We haven’t written a whole lot about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yet on Space City Weather because there just has not been a whole lot to write about, and certainly nothing threatening to the Gulf of Mexico. However, that is likely to start changing in another two or three weeks, as we approach the heart of the season. I am particularly concerned about the extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which would support the rapid intensification of hurricanes.

In any case, today we are cross-posting our daily update from The Eyewall. This is the new website that Matt and I created this year to provide more in-depth coverage about storms across the Atlantic. This will not change anything we do on Space City Weather; but for those interested in the broader tropics, it provides much more information about all that is happening. So if you have friends or family members beyond Houston who are interested in tropical weather, this is a good place to point them to. Without further ado, then, here is today’s post on The Eyewall.

One-sentence summary

The odds of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing have increased to 40 percent today, but while it’s worth watching (especially in Bermuda), for now it seems most likely to turn away from the Caribbean and America.

Happening now: We’re still a few days away from the next Atlantic wave’s development window

If I showed you a satellite image of the Atlantic this morning, and I asked you to identify the area you would be most interested in monitoring for tropical development, I would assume that you’d pick the one near Florida.

While that is certainly beefy looking, it’s being entirely driven by an upper-level low, not a surface-based system. Tropical development is unlikely to nil in that case. Though, this will hopefully do something to temper the outrageously warm water temperatures surrounding Florida right now. That said, modeling is actually latching onto the tropical wave located this morning around 30°W longitude. If we look at that on satellite, we’re probably all giving it the Larry David treatment.

But! As we go through the next few days, this area is expected to consolidate some and become a little better organized. It will track generally west or west-northwest. Modeling insists it could develop. There is actually very good agreement between the GFS and European operational models and their ensembles (which are 30 to 50 different runs of the model with various initial tweaks) that this will develop, albeit not in a huge way. That aside, this is arguably the best agreement we’ve seen since Don formed. In my estimation, models have tended to be rather aggressive with development in the main development region (MDR) and Caribbean this year. So, while odds of development are on the increase and there’s good model agreement on this, we’ll see. Model odds of development over the next week are probably closer to 80 or 90 percent, but given recent struggles, the NHC estimate of 40 percent seems much more realistic to me.

Anyway, development of this system will likely be slow as it comes westward over the next 3 to 5 days.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): That tropical wave (should) swim with the fishes

One other thing that the models are in good agreement on right now is that whatever happens with this tropical wave, it is likely to turn northwest and north and eventually out to sea, missing the Caribbean and the U.S. Never say never, but that’s comforting for now. I would argue that there’s good reason to watch this if you are in Bermuda though just in case.

Beyond this wave, there’s nothing terribly exciting to focus on in the tropics through day ten.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All good for now

Quite frankly, it’s almost disturbingly quiet on the models right now out in the extended range. It does seem like we’re entering a briefly hostile background period in the Atlantic beginning around the first day of August. This is due to background activity associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves. I won’t get into the heavy details here, but you can read and learn about the MJO and hurricanes and convectively coupled Kelvin waves here. Eric Blake at the NHC is a great forecaster, and this presentation that the WMO has online is really useful. All that to say that I would suspect that things pick back up again after August 10th or so.

Good morning. I would love nothing more than to report some positive news about the Houston weather this morning. To say that temperatures are going to drop back into the low 90s next week, with a decent amount of cloud cover. Or to say that our region is finally going to get a good soaking from some much needed, steady rains. But I can say none of those things. For the next week or 10 days, unfortunately, it looks as though our weather is just going to get hotter, and anyone getting some rain will feel like they hit the lottery.

Thursday and Friday

High temperatures today and Friday will reach the mid- to upper-90s for much of the region, with mostly sunny skies. And if you’re thinking that sounds bad, well, this is actually our cooler stretch of weather before things really start to heat up this weekend. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. As for our rain chances, they’re going to be low. If you live north of Interstate 10, they’re about 10 percent or less. The highest rain chances will be south of Interstate 10, and particularly to the southwest in places like Fort Bend County. These may be about 20 or 25 percent. Again, if you receive any meaningful precipitation today or tomorrow, count yourself very lucky.

Saturday and Sunday

Houston will lie on the southern edge of a high pressure system anchored over the Central United States this weekend, but we’re going to feel its effects enough that we’ll see sunny skies and highs near 100 degrees this weekend. Rain chances are probably 10 percent, or less.

Next week

If you’re wondering whether there’s any relief in the forecast during the first half of next week, the answer is no. It’s going to be very hot, and at a minimum I would expect heat advisories from the National Weather Service, if not outright excessive heat warnings. It’s possible that rain chances rebound somewhat toward the second half of next week, but given the persistence of our heat and lack of precipitation, it’s hard to bet on that changing without a much stronger signal in the forecast models.

Good morning. Houston’s very hot, but not extremely hot, weather pattern will continue for the rest of this week, and well into next week. Truth be told, as we slide into August in a few days, this is the warmest time of the year in Houston. So we’re probably not going to see any significant relief, temperature-wise, for awhile. The best we can do is cloudier days with some rain-cooled air. There is a chance we may see a little bit more of that in a week or so.

Wednesday

This week we’ve seen a pattern of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, most commonly south of Interstate 10, and this will continue today. Rain chances are about 30 percent for southern parts of Houston, and just 10 percent or so further inland. Otherwise we’re going to see highs in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the south, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

A day that will be a lot like Wednesday, except that rain chances will be just a bit lower.

Friday

Rain chances drop to about 10 percent area wide, as highs push into the upper 90s. Skies remain sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure will strengthen a bit over Texas this weekend, and this should lead to a pair of hot and sunny days with highs near or at 100 degrees. Rain chances both days will be on the order of 10 percent; which is to say very low.

Next week

The aforementioned high pressure system should start to retreat to the east next week, and this may open us up to the possibility of at least scattered showers, if not more widespread rainfall. To be clear, I’m not predicting any kind of washout. But we may get to the point where we’re seeing daily chances on the order of 40 percent by mid-week. Highs probably will remain in the mid- to upper-90s.

A combination of slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints means that the National Weather Service, for the first time in more than two weeks, has not issued a heat advisory or an excessive heat warning for today. These moderately cooler temperatures—mostly highs in the mid-90s instead of upper 90s to 100 degrees—will continue for the rest of the work week before nature’s thermostat rises again.

We can see this slight moderation in wet bulb globe temperatures, which we have been referencing during this summer’s heat wave. They will remain at high, but not extreme levels, until this weekend. One reason for the slight diminution in temperatures is the presence of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, roughly 1 to 3 miles above the surface. This reflects a bit of sunlight, decreasing the amount of energy reaching the ground. Unfortunately this increase in drier air may also wipe out chances for meaningful rainfall, which is badly needed.

Tuesday

Highs today will reach into the mid-90s for most of the region, with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. As we have experienced for a couple of days, rain chances will increase during the afternoon hours, particularly closer to the coast and along the sea breeze. However, I think chances will only be about 30 percent south of Interstate 10, and lesser for inland areas, partly due to the Saharan dust (levels of drier air make it more difficult for rain to reach the ground). Overnight lows may briefly drop into the upper 70s. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More typical, late-July-like conditions will continue through the end of the week, with highs in the mid-90s, and slight chances of rain along the afternoon sea breeze. If you’re looking for the “coolest” day in a while, that may be Thursday, when highs may not reach the mid-90s in parts of Houston, even away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring us back into highs in the upper 90s, with coastal shower chances in the vicinity of 20 percent. So hot and sunny, for the most part.

Next week

This weekend and the early part of next week, truth be told, look pretty hot. I expect we may see another 100-degree day, or two. However, if I squint into the future I can see perhaps a return to slightly more moderate conditions by the middle of next week, with perhaps some healthier rain chances. That is part hope, and part science, however, as we’re talking about a forecast 7 to 10 days from now. As noted in the headline, don’t break out that sweater just yet.