Eric Berger

Good morning. Our overall pattern remains more or less the same, with high pressure leading to very hot weather for the next week, and quite possibly beyond. Today and Thursday could bring the worst of the weather, with very high dewpoints contributing to the heat.

We see this in the forecast for “wet bulb globe temperatures,” which factor in several variables to provide an overall guidance for how uncomfortable conditions will be. (I discussed these a bit more in depth on Monday) Temperatures for today and Thursday are forecast to be above 90 degrees, which means our weather will be extremely uncomfortable.

Wednesday

There is not much to say beyond the fact that temperatures will reach about 100 degrees, with sunny skies and stifling humidity, and modest southwest winds at about 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

Conditions will be much the same, although southerly winds may be a little higher, at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

With the influx of slightly drier air and winds gusting up to 20 mph, conditions might be slightly more tolerable outside. But temperatures will still be really hot, about 100 degrees for much of the region away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Yes, the weekend looks sunny and hot.

Next week

A series of atmospheric disturbances will push through the area later on Sunday and on Monday; and were we not under the influence of high pressure, these are the kinds of systems that would bring us a healthy chance of rain. However, due to generally sinking air over the region, I’d rate the chance of these disturbances at producing rain at about 10 percent. Still, it’s something to watch, as most of the rest of the forecast just looks to be unendingly hot, humid, and rain free.

This is bad for business, but as usual we’re going to be honest with you here. For the next few days, at least, you really do not need to check the daily forecast here at Space City Weather. We are in a persistent pattern of high-pressure dominated weather that will last for at least the next week, and quite possibly longer. This high anchored over the southwestern United States, is not going anywhere, any time soon.

The conditions that we’re going to experience through the middle of July are not atypical, per se, for this month. It is summer in Houston. It is hot. But the heat is going to be tenacious, with daily temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, and without any let up. Every day is going to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will barely fall to 80 degrees. And while there is a very slight rain chance this afternoon, overall chances will be 10 percent or less on most days. The entire metro area is under a heat advisory and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near or reaching 100 degrees for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but most areas will not see anything resembling rainfall. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

A similar day, albeit with even lower rain chances. Look for highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday until ???

From Thursday, through the weekend, and at least into the middle of next week we are looking at hot and sunny weather, driven persistent high pressure. This means mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and warm, humid nights. It is possible this pattern breaks somewhat by the middle or end of next week, but I would not hold my breath.

We talk about the heat index from time to time, and this characterizes the heat outside by factoring in both the temperature and relative humidity. This is also the basis for “feels like” temperatures on television broadcasts. But there is another, still more accurate measurement of heat stress if one must be out in the direct sunlight, and this is called the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.” It’s a bit of an odd name, but it takes a lot of factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, Sun angle and cloud cover. Chances are, if you’ve been in the military, you heard of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.

The important thing to remember about these temperatures is that anything above 80 degrees requires precautions, and anything above 90 degrees is dangerous if you’re outside for a prolonged period of time. I say all of this because the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is a good measurement to characterize the extremeness of the heat we’re going to see this week, and the bottom line is that it should not be quite as bad as what we experienced in June. Back then, daily Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures were consistently in the low 90s. This week we will be a few degrees below that. It will still be very warm, with a heat advisory in place for much of the region. But it won’t be quite as extreme.

Monday

That was a rather long introduction for what will be a short forecast as high pressure over West Texas influences our weather for this week and beyond. Expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. There is perhaps a 10 to 15 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will provide little relief. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A similar day, with slight rain chances and highs in the upper 90s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, sunny skies, and warm nights. Each day will be more or less the same as we bake.

Saturday and Sunday

The temperature may increase slightly this weekend, as sunny skies prevail. Hot, hot, hot.

Next week

At this time I don’t foresee too much of a change heading into next week. There are some scenarios in which we start to see a decent chance of rain by around Tuesday or so of next week, but at this point it’s difficult for me to bet against persistent heat as high pressure reigns supreme. Rest assured, we’re looking for any signs of change.

Today will offer the Houston region its best chance for widespread rainfall in several weeks as a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico propagates inland. Friday will be somewhat of a transition day before hot and sunny weather returns this weekend and pretty much all of next week. We are probably looking at a sustained stretch of 100-degree days.

Thursday

A large mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of our region, near Matagorda Bay. I expect these storms to gradually move toward Houston, and accordingly our chances for showers today will be highest from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Accumulations will be widely variable, with most of the area receiving 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Flooding should not be a significant concern, but a few streets may back up under the strongest storms. Showers will end this afternoon or early evening as daytime heating ebbs. Mostly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air should limit highs today in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Southerly winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph, with lows tonight in the upper 70s.

Friday

Skies will turn partly to mostly sunny on Friday, and highs should perk up into the low- to mid-90s. Some additional showers will be possible during the daytime, with heating. Overall chances are probably about 40 percent, and accumulations should be much less than on Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

This looks like a classic July weekend, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers each day, but probably not enough to disrupt any outdoor activities you have. Please make sure to take precautions in the heat and (very nearly) direct sunshine at midday.

Next week

I wish the outlook were better, but unfortunately we’re going to see the return of very hot weather as high pressure once again builds over the region. We are looking at highs of around 100 degrees each day, beginning Monday. We may reach extreme heat advisories at some point. It looks like the heat will persist through at least the middle of the month, as the high pressure dome looks really stout.