Eric Berger

In brief: The early part of this week will see some storm chances, especially Tuesday. After that we’ll be mostly sunny and increasingly hot through the weekend. Some slightly lower humidity is also in the cards, a real blessing in June. Finally, we’re following the possibility of heavy rain next week as a tropical disturbance develops in the Gulf.

Houston will see fairly normal weather this week for June, which is to say plenty of heat and some humidity, and scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. While that is far from pleasant, I consider this type of weather a win. Why? Because the summer months bring the biggest threats along the upper Texas coast. At this time of year, Houston could be facing significant flooding or a debilitating drought. Temperatures could be in the upper 90s or even triple digits. A hurricane could be forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

In short, boring and not blazing hot during the months of June, July, and August are just fine with me in H-town. However, if this is all too boring for you, be sure and check the outlook for next week at the end of this morning’s update.

Monday

We’ll start the week off with the potential for a few storms. I don’t expect anything crazy, but with fairly high levels of atmospheric moisture and a series of disturbances moving through we’ll see some rain chances through Wednesday. For today that means the development of some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. I think these will be fairly scattered, so some areas may pick up a half an inch of rain, whereas much of Houston probably won’t see any meaningful accumulations. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light, from the northeast at 5 mph. Rain chances slacken tonight as lows drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

This day probably has the best storm potential of the week. It appears as though a complex of storms will develop in central Texas on Tuesday, and push toward Houston during the afternoon and evening hours. It’s not clear how well this line of storms will hold up as it approaches our area, but there’s a decent chance of some storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening for the western half of Houston, and lesser so for the eastern side. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs again in the lower 90s for most locations.

Wednesday

Another day with a slight chance of storms, but otherwise mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-90s. With a continued northwesterly flow we should see the influx of some moderately drier air during the second half of the week, which will push dewpoints down into the 60s. This is not dry air by any means, but the days should feel a little less humid than Houston typically feels during the summer. Mornings and evenings will be a bit nicer as well. This slightly drier pattern should hold through about Friday, or so.

Thursday and Friday

Storm chances should go away for the second half of the work week as high pressure builds over the southern United States. Both Thursday and Friday should see sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-90s and some of that slightly drier air. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-70s. So again, not at all bad for June.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks sunny and hot, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s although a few locations may reach the upper 90s. Sunday looks sunny and hot as well, although there’s the potential for some showers as moisture moves in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Next week

At some point later this week or over the weekend we are likely to see a tropical disturbance develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this time I don’t think there’s much risk for a hurricane to form or anything menacing like that. However, this tropical system could be a heavy rainfall threat for the Texas coast beginning late this weekend and next week as it conveys moisture from the Gulf inland.

We are still at the point in the forecast where there is a ton of uncertainty. For our region, whether we see a little rain next week, or potentially a lot (i.e. 5 or more inches), will depend on the strength of high pressure over the southeastern United States. This will moderate how far north any tropical disturbance can move in the Gulf. (Further north and closer to Houston would increase the potential for heavy rain here). In any case, this is something we’ll be watching over the coming days.

In brief: After Wednesday’s showers and thunderstorms, high pressure is more fully in control of our weather and should dominate through the weekend. We’ll have plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid-90s. By Monday some rain chances return and we’re likely to see some slightly cooler temperatures. But the extent of the rain remains an open question.

Thursday

High pressure has settled into place, and this will set the stage for warmer and sunnier weather for the next four days. This pattern of generally sinking air and a capping inversion should preclude the development of any showers until at least Monday.

A couple of factors will combine to push highs into the mid-90s and, for some inland locations, possibly the upper 90s. These are consistent sunshine during the daytime hours and slightly lower dewpoints. While a dewpoint of 70 degrees is by no means comfortable, it is considerably lower than we’ve seen at points this summer. So mornings and evenings over the next few days will be warm, but ever so slightly less humid. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

Another hot and sunny day. Additionally, we’ll see light winds, generally at just 5 to 10 mph from the south.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re likely to see continued hot and sunny weather through the weekend, with most locations reaching high temperatures of around 95 degrees. Please do be mindful of the potential for sunburns and skin cancer due to exposure. We are just two weeks from the summer solstice, when the Sun reaches the highest point in the sky. The bottom line is that you can burn quickly during the middle hours of the day.

Next week

Some sort of pattern change is is in store for early next week. However, I’m afraid that, at this point, a weak front is unlikely to push all the way into Houston. My best guess for what we see is some increased cloud cover and better rain chances for a few days, perhaps Monday through Wednesday. This, in turn, is likely to help keep daily temperatures in the 90 to 93-degree range, which is fairly typical for this time of year. In any case, I don’t think we’re looking at any crazy kind of storm activity or heavy rainfall potential, probably just light to moderate showers. But as always, we’ll need to fine tune this forecast as we get closer.

Hurricane season

There’s nothing of note yet in the tropics, but we’re starting to see some indications that Atlantic storm activity may start to pick up a little bit in about 10 days. Please join me this afternoon to discuss the season ahead with Reliant’s Lyris Leos. We’ll be taking your questions starting at 2 pm CT on Facebook Live.

In brief: We may see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms move into the Houston region today, although I think rainfall accumulations will be hit or miss. Still, it’s something to be aware of if you’re going to be out and about today. After that we’re looking at several days of hot and sunny weather, although there’s a non-zero chance of a weak front early next week.

Hurricane season outlook

As you probably know, a majority of predictions have forecast the 2024 hurricane season to be especially active. On Thursday I’ll be discussing the seasonal outlook with Reliant’s Lyris Leos, and what Houstonians should consider heading into the season. The broadcast will occur at 2 pm CT on Facebook Live, and will also be available as a recording afterward. You can ask questions in the comments below, or on Facebook.

Wednesday

There is a complex of thunderstorms near Waco and Lufkin this morning that will move steadily southward. Although I’m not convinced this line of organized storms will hold together, some showers and thunderstorms may move into Houston later this morning, likely reaching areas such as The Woodlands and Kingwood 10 am to noon, central Houston an hour or two later, and pushing into coastal counties around noon or shortly after. Anything that develops will likely have cleared the area by this evening’s commute.

Rainfall amounts will be widely variable, with a few isolated locations perhaps seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain, and many other parts of the metro area no accumulations at all. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorms with this line, but overall the chances for strong winds and hail are fairly low. Highs will depend on the extent of clearing this afternoon, but most locations should reach the low 90s with partly sunny skies after the system passes through.

Thursday

A sunny and hot day, with highs in the mid-90s across much of Houston. Rain chances look to be close to zero. Winds will be light, from the south.

Friday

Another hot and sunny day, likely the warmest of the week. Expect parts of Houston to reach the upper-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid-90s and plenty of humidity. Rain chances are low to non-existent. Lows will be in the upper 70s.

Next week

The forecast turns more interesting early next week. I’m not ready to make any guarantees, but there is an increasing likelihood that some sort of weak front may work its way into Houston. Since we’ll be well into June at that point, we still should be somewhat skeptical, but there’s a decent chance we’ll see some showers on Monday or early Tuesday, followed by an influx of some somewhat drier air. We should have more confidence in this forecast by tomorrow or Friday.

In brief: Houston will continue to see some spotty rain chances the next couple of days before hotter and sunnier weather sets in for the end of the week and the weekend. Do you like temperatures in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine? Then you’re in luck. In this post we also discuss the rise of AI-based weather forecasting.

AI and weather forecasting

You’ve probably tried out ChatGPT or some of the other large language model-based artificial intelligence products that have come out in recent years. The basic premise of this technology is that they voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results. Well, when it comes to weather there is also a lot of historical data. Many decades of it, in fact, in datasets such as Europe’s ERA5 reservoir.

In the last couple of years, computer scientists have gotten serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. (These models have some basic similarities to large language models, but are distinctly different). Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to physics-based global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and which require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

Why do I bring this up? Because for the first time some of these models appear to be ready for prime time for the Atlantic hurricane season. And one of the things they seem to do really well is to predict the track of hurricanes. So Matt and I may be referring to them from time to time as part of our forecasting process. We’ll be evaluating them alongside the traditional, physics-based models. If you want to know more about all of this, I recently wrote a feature about AI weather forecasting for Ars Technica.

Speaking of hurricane season, things still look quiet for at least the next week or so. We’ll be providing regular coverage of Atlantic based activity on our companion site, The Eyewall again this year. Don’t worry, nothing will change here at Space City Weather. In any case, Matt has some more information about our plans for The Eyewall in 2024 here, including sponsorship opportunities, if you’re interested in what we’re doing beyond Houston.

Tuesday

We’re seeing a few showers near the coast this morning, but these should end fairly soon. For the most part, today, we should see a mix of sunshine and clouds with high temperatures in the low 90s. The most notable feature today may be the winds, which look to be fairly gusty from the south, reaching about 25 mph or a bit higher this afternoon. Rain chances are about 10 percent, or less, with a slight chance of severe storms along and north of Highway 105. Low temperatures tonight will only fall to about 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Tomorrow morning looks a little more interesting, in terms of rainfall, as a storm system drops down from the north around sunrise. This may produce some scattered showers during the morning commute in Houston, but it’s also possible that most of the rainfall stays to the east of Houston, over places like Beaumont. In any case, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of severe weather. Some additional rain showers could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with daytime heating. Again, chances look spotty. Most of the area probably has about a one-in-three chance of seeing rain, or less. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure expands into Houston these look to be mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Daily rain chances are about 10 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks to bring continued hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid-90s. Once again rain chances won’t be zero, but they’ll be close to it. With slightly drier air we may see nighttime temperatures falling into the mid- to upper-70s. We’re approaching the time of the year when the sunshine reaches its highest point in the sky, so please protect your skin when outdoors between the hours of 10 am and 4 pm.

Next week

We may be looking at some sort of pattern change next week, with some slightly drier air or better rain chances. What this all means for our weather is not quite clear to me yet, but I do think we’re likely to go back toward the lower 90s rather than remain on an upward trend in temperatures.