Eric Berger

Good morning. I am sorry to say that Sunday’s forecast was a “miss” for us, in that we did not anticipate such widespread rain, nor so many thunderstorms. Candidly, I woke up and looked at the radar on Sunday morning, and upon seeing a mass of showers to the southwest of Houston said to myself, “What is that?!?” The showers also kept a lid on temperatures—with a high of just 79 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Anyway, I believe it is important to be honest with our readers.

Sunday’s wet weather heralded a much wetter pattern for the week ahead. Most of the area should see 3 to 6 inches of rain between now and next Monday, and we’ll be on the lookout for the possibility of street flooding amid stronger storms. For this reason we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, beginning at noon today.

The overall pattern, in absence of high pressure, will be driven by a moist atmosphere with a series of passing atmospheric disturbances. As a result we’ll see on and off showers and thunderstorms for much of this week, and possibly through the weekend. This is the kind of situation during which you’ll need to be paying attention to conditions, as these storms may well pop up during after-school activities or the evening commute.

Monday

Conditions this morning should be fairly calm, with mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. However, along with daytime heating, I expect to see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. It is possible that we see some fairly strong thunderstorms this afternoon, from about noon to 6 pm across the metro-area, so be weather aware. Any storms that develop should weaken during the evening hours. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s, and southerly winds. Lows will only drop into the low-70s.

Tuesday

A similar day, with muggy air and a chance of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms during primarily the afternoon hours. Not everyone will see rainfall, but much of the region will, and some of these thunderstorms could be quite strong. Again, this activity should wind down during the evening hours. Highs on Tuesday should again be roughly in the mid-80s, with southerly or southwesterly winds.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days should see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. However, for now I think the chance of strong thunderstorms is lower. Highs will probably fall somewhere in the mid-80s, with muggy air.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Atmospheric moisture levels will surge this weekend, which could set the stage for even more widespread rainfall. However, whether this transpires will depend on the upper-level atmosphere and whether we see a robust low pressure system drop down toward Texas. So for now the weekend forecast ranges from somewhat wet—scattered, on and off showers—to downright wet with fairly widespread showers and the threat of heavy rainfall. I don’t have enough confidence to make the call yet, but I do know the air is going to be muggy, and we should see highs in the mid- to possibly upper-80s—the warmer temperatures would come in the scenario with less rainfall.

Next week

After the potential for more rainfall on Monday, most modeling suggests rain chances will die down somewhat for next week. It’s possible that some sort of weak front pushes through in about 8 to 10 days, but that’s not something I’m going to bet the farm on.

The temperature this morning has fallen to 63 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and I can’t help but wonder when we’ll see temperatures below 65 degrees in Houston again. Maybe in about 10 days, or maybe not until September? In any case, a much warmer and more humid pattern is coming with high temperatures near or above 90 degrees for the next week after today.

Thursday

As high pressure slides away it will be replaced by a more pronounced onshore flow and a more unstable atmosphere. For today, that means partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph later this afternoon. There will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Houston tonight, but the bigger threat for severe weather is well to the west of the metro area over central Texas and into the Brazos Valley. Overall rain chances in Houston tonight are probably 20 percent or so. Lows will only drop into the low-70s.

Friday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday, but for the most part we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies and warm, humid weather. Expect high temperatures to reach about 90 degrees, with southerly winds. This day will really feel like “early summer” in Houston, and the sticky conditions will stick around for awhile. Lows Friday night only drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend. If you’re looking for sunshine this weekend, the middle of the day on Saturday is probably your best bet, when skies may become partly sunny for several hours. Otherwise, clouds will be more common than clear skies. Isolated showers are possible on both days along with the sea breeze, but I would peg their chances at only about 10 or 20 percent each day. Highs will be around 90 degrees, or in the low 90s, for both weekend days. Are y’all ready to sweat?

Next week

Next week will not yield much change in our weather, at least not right away. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees most days, with lows in the mid-70s. Rain chances are going to start out at 20 percent or so, but could increase significantly by the latter part of the week in response to changes in the upper atmosphere. But my confidence in that portion of the forecast is low. Just know that heat and humidity are going to be your best and constant friend for awhile.

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• Schedule an HVAC checkup. Now is the time to schedule a tune-up with an HVAC service professional to ensure your system is running at its best. Just as you wouldn’t take your car out for a long road trip without getting serviced, you don’t want to operate your A/C system during the long, hot summer without proper maintenance. Schedule a multi-point checkup to ensure your system is running at its best.
• Reduce the temperature on your electric water heater to 120°F. You could save three to five percent in energy costs per year.
• Check air filters monthly and replace as necessary. A clean air filter can keep your A/C running at peak condition.
• Avoid using heat-producing appliances like the clothes dryer, dishwasher, or oven during the hottest times of day. These appliances can cause your A/C to work harder to keep your home cool.
• Install a programmable thermostat, like a Nest, and you can save an estimated 10 percent a year on cooling and heating costs. You can schedule it to only run when you’re home, so you don’t waste energy cooling an empty space. And, the Nest also learns your schedule, can sense when you’re away and automatically adjusts the temperature to help you conserve
• Use blinds or curtains during the summer to reduce solar heat gain. Sunlight can increase the demand on your air conditioner by as much as 30 percent.

Find additional energy efficiency tips by clicking here.

Some people don’t like to talk about dewpoints because they’re confusing. But they’re a really helpful way to quickly assess how stick the air will feel. The scientific definition of a dewpoint is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to achieve a relative humidity of 100 percent. So if the air temperature is 70 degrees—which may sound comfortable—and the dewpoint is also 70 degrees it’s going to feel really sticky outside. But you don’t have to remember that definition for dewpoints, just this handy guide:

Dewpoints in the mid-50s or below: The air is dry and comfortable

Dewpoints in the mid-60s: The air starts feels somewhat sticky during the day, and somewhat muggy in the evenings

Dewpoints in the mid-70s or higher: Oh my god I’m dying.

I am sorry to say that today, specifically the period from around noon to late afternoon, is going to be our last shot of dewpoints in the 50s for awhile. After today we’re looking at dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the foreseeable future. While we may get a front to knock them back in 10 or more days, it is by no means a certainty. Welcome to May.

Wednesday

After some fog and clouds this morning, skies are going to clear out and leave us with a mostly sunny day. This, combined with the slightly drier air mentioned above is going to allow temperatures to pop up into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be slight, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the southeast. Some clouds return tonight, but lows should drop into the mid-60s for all but coast areas. This probably will be our last night in the 60s for quite a while.

Thursday

As high pressure moves off, the region will open up to a more pronounced flow off the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in more humidity and clouds, to go along with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. With increased moisture the region may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening and overnight. The most likely areas for this will be north and west of the metro area, in places such as College Station and Conroe. I would not expect anything particularly severe. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This three day period will be hot and humid. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies each day, with daytime highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Rain chances are not zero, and there will probably be a few isolated showers each day. But if you’re planning outdoor activities things should be fine as long as you have plan for some temporary shelter. Which to be clear, probably won’t be needed. In addition to hot days, nights will be warm and sticky, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Next week

The overall pattern does not change much next week. Daytime temperatures may drop a degree or two, but the humidity should remain more or less the same. Some better rain chances may pop up by the middle or end of next week. We’ll see.

After this morning, Houston has two more somewhat cool nights—with lows in the 60s and not oppressively high dewpoints—before things begin to warm up toward the weekend. By Friday morning we’re going to see lows only in the 70s with more humidity and well, that’s a fairly typical pattern for summer-time weather. So let’s talk about summer, which typically lasts about five months in Houston.

By strict definition “meteorological” summer runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with some regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

We’re going to reach early summer this weekend, when we probably will see a handful of 90-degree days.

Tuesday

Today will be the last of three days with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. High pressure will help to maintain an easterly flow, so we’re going to see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with clouds likely becoming more predominant later this afternoon. Winds will be light, out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid-80s, and we’re going to see a fair bit of sunshine. For a few hours on Wednesday afternoon we should actually see dewpoints drop into the 50s, which is going to be our last smidgeon of dry air for awhile. So maybe step outside and enjoy that last bit of light humidity. Because you know what’s coming, right? Winds will be light, and overnight lows will again drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

We’ll see one more day with temperatures in the mid-80s, but with more clouds than Wednesday. Winds will also be more pronounced out of the south, gusting to 20 mph or even a bit higher. This, my friends, is the full-on return of the onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, lows on Thursday night will only drop into the low 70s. There is a slight chance of light showers on Thursday night.

Friday

Despite mostly cloudy skies, we’re going to see warm and humid weather on Friday, with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 90 degrees. Given the moisture and a bit of instability to work with, we could see some scattered showers or possibly even a thunderstorm each day. But overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. If you have plans, we’ll try to refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Next week

Temperatures back off a bit next week, maybe. Rain chances perhaps will go up. I’d ballpark chances at 20 to 40 percent each day, but my overall confidence is low. The humidity looks to stick around. The models are hinting at a chance for a weak front in 10 to 14 days, but that is far enough in the future that I’d probably not even be writing that in pencil yet. Settle in, y’all. Summer is at the gates.