Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will likely see its first 80-degree day in more than two weeks this afternoon, but then we’ll be sharply cooler for a couple of days after a frontal passage. In something of the roller coaster pattern we’re used to during the fall and spring months, temperatures will then rebound for this weekend before yet another front in about a week or so.

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Tuesday

Fog is fairly widespread in Galveston and other coastal areas this morning. What is happening is that slightly warmer air is pushing inland, moving across waters with surface temperatures just a bit cooler than the air. This is producing sea fog, and it is rather thick in some places so take care outside. After the fog lifts this morning we will be left with a cloudy and muggy day. Highs will reach about 80 degrees, with sticky dewpoints in the mid-70s.

As atmospheric moisture levels rise we’ll see some scattered showers today, and perhaps even a few thunderstorms ahead of tonight’s front. The most likely time and region for such storms is this afternoon, perhaps from 1 to 4 pm, near and northeast of Bush Intercontinental Airport. Overall the threat is low, and most areas should see little in the way of accumulations. This evening will be sticky in the metro area, with the front not reaching Houston until after midnight. I don’t expect a line of storms with the front.

Wednesday

Expect a blustery, cold day. The front should be off the coast by around sunrise, and in its wake we’re going to see brisk northerly winds and clearing skies. With the influx of colder air, highs will likely struggle to reach 60 degrees during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will plummet as the Sun sinks behind the horizon. Lows will drop into the low 40s in Houston on Wednesday night, with colder conditions inland.

Thursday

This will be a fine day, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 60 degrees. Temperatures on Thursday night will be warmer, in the mid-50s, as winds shift to come from a more easterly direction.

Friday

As high pressure departs to the east, we’ll be back into a full southerly flow by Friday. Look for partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

As warmer and wetter air moves back into the region, look for highs this weekend of around 80 degrees and a mix of clouds and sunshine. We’ll have a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain each day, but any showers that develop will probably be short-lived.

Next week

The next front should arrive by around Tuesday of next week, perhaps bringing a smattering of rain with it. It’s too early to say whether lows will drop into the 40s or 50s.

Good morning! The big talking points this week are a brief warmup through Tuesday, the potential for storms ahead of the next cold front, and then an extended period of warmer weather during the first week of December. Before getting to the weekly forecast, however, I want to say just a little bit more about the Thanksgiving rains.

Earlier this year, parts of the Houston region were experiencing an extreme drought, and problems were most acute in Brazoria and Galveston counties. Even prior to last week’s rains these coastal counties were in what the US Drought Monitor characterizes as a “moderate drought.” Fortunately, I think we can safely put those concerns to bed after the region’s widespread rains on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning. Nearly all of the coastal counties pulled in 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with areas further inland recording 2 to 5 inches generally. This was the soaking we needed to extinguish this year’s drought.

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Monday

Much of the area is starting today out in the 40s this morning, and with mostly sunny skies we should see temperatures warm nicely into the low 70s by this afternoon. A reinforcing front arrived on Sunday to keep us dry overnight, but that front is washing out today and will be replaced by a warmer onshore flow. Accordingly, light northerly winds this morning will turn southeasterly later today. This will bring increasing clouds this evening, and lows tonight will only drop to around 60 degrees. (By the way, if you’ve not heard yet, the city of Houston is under a “boil water” notice due to a water pressure issue).

Tuesday

Given the warmer temperatures overnight, we have a good chance of seeing sea fog on Tuesday morning, which likely will be thickest near the coast. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs near 80 degrees. The big question concerns the possibility of showers and thunderstorms during the daytime, ahead of a frontal passage late Tuesday night. All of the atmospheric ingredients we need for storms are there, but they probably won’t line up just right. (The story is different well to our northeast). As a result, I expect to see scattered showers in Houston, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Accumulations don’t look particularly notable. The frontal boundary, with cooler and drier air, is unlikely to reach Houston until around sunrise on Wednesday.

Wednesday

In the wake of the front this will be a cool and sunny day, with highs of around 60 degrees. Winds will be blustery, gusting up to 25 or 30 mph out of the north. Lows will bottom out near 40 degrees on Wednesday night.

Thursday

Another chilly day, with highs in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Expect partly sunny skies.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks warmer as the onshore flow gets reestablished. Saturday and Sunday, in particular, should see highs near 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. We can’t rule out a slight chance of rain on both days, but for now any accumulations look slight.

Next week

The early part of next week looks fairly warm, too, before a cold front arrives to chill us down. The details of how strong this front will be, alas, are pretty fuzzy.

Good morning. The storm system that has hit our region during the last two days is finally moving eastward. The last line of its showers is moving fairly quickly from west to east across the area. Areas near Interstate 45 are still being hammered this morning with rainfall, but the heaviest of these storms will be gone by around 7:30 or 8 am, and the rains should be over entirely by 10 or 11 am. Skies will clear out this afternoon. We are ending the Stage 1 flood alert accordingly.

As anticipated, much of the area has received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall since Thanksgiving morning, with a few isolated areas receiving as much as 7 inches of rainfall. I’ll post more about this on Monday, but these rains have definitely put a nice dent in the drought that formed this summer and fall across parts of the Houston metro area. And so while they may have made for a soggy holiday, our trees will be thankful for these rains.

The good news is that while the last two days were wet, the second half of the long weekend will be sunny and fine. Look for clearing skies this afternoon and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the west, at times gusting up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Winds will slacken some on Sunday, with more sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. In short, this should be a fine fall weekend once rains clear this morning.

We’ll see a sharp warm-up by Tuesday, with highs climbing to about 80 degrees, before the next cold frotn arrives to cool things off for a few days. I hope everyone has a pleasant end to the holiday weekend.

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Good afternoon. If you’re tired of gray skies and wet streets, I’ve got bad news and good news for you.

We’ll start with the bad news: It’s not over.

Now for the good news: It’s almost over.

The greater Houston region faces one more wet and possibly stormy night before we see some sunny and sedate weather.

Friday afternoon

After a lull in activity for most of today, as of 3:30 pm CT, storms are forming to the southwest of the Houston metro area and moving toward the city. These showers should be less intense and more scattered that what’s coming later tonight, after midnight, but a few areas may still see some briefly intense rainfall this evening. So if you’re out and about, please be mindful of conditions nearby. Temperatures should hold steady in the low 60s.

Late Friday night/early Saturday morning

Overnight a slow-moving low pressure system should combine with ample atmospheric moisture to produce heavier rainfall. Sometime after midnight, therefore, we expect strong, widepsread storms to move into the Houston region and generate rainfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. These rates are intense enough to quickly back up roads, and therefore we expect that some areas will see street flooding late tonight into Saturday morning. While we cannot entirely rule out a touch of severe weather, such as damaging winds for the most part these should be be heavy showers with some lightning mixed in.

At some point these showers will clear out from west to east on Saturday morning. Most model guidance suggests the heavy rain should depart by 7 to 9 am, with showers ending entirely by around noon. Between now and then I expect most areas to receive 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall, with the potential for higher totals in isolated areas. The further north of Interstate 10 you live, the more likely you are to see lower accumulations.

Saturday afternoon and beyond

Skies should clear pretty quickly as the rain showers move out, so I expect partly to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon, with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 in Houston, which means colder conditions further inland. Sunday looks splendid, with sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Monday will be similar before we start to warm up ahead of a mid-week cool front.

Unless the forecast takes a turn for the worse, this will be our last update until Saturday morning, at which time we expect to drop the Stage 1 flood alert.

Fundraiser

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