Good morning. The overall forecast, unfortunately, remains largely the same. A stultifying ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the Southern United States, and it will bring us very hot, and largely rain-free weather for at least the next week or ten days. The only real question is whether it backs off to the west just enough next week to allow for a modest increase in rain chances. That is possible, although not certain. In the mean time, we will remain in a pattern of extreme heat, based on “wet bulb globe temperatures,” through the weekend.
Today and Thursday will feel especially hot outside. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Yesterday a small area near Spring Valley, just to the west of central Houston, receiving a bullseye of rainfall. A few neighborhoods saw as much as one-half inch of rainfall. So it will go again today, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rainfall while the rest of us see hot and sunny weather, with highs of around 100 degrees give or take. Winds will be light, out of the south at around 10 mph. Lows tonight remain persistently warm, only dropping to around 80 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
The pattern really doesn’t change much during the second half of the week, with high heat, sunny skies, and just a very slight chance of rainfall. Please continue to take heat precautions.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will not see much (if any) relief from the heat, although humidity levels may slacken just slightly. As high pressure slowly slides west, rain chances by Sunday may bump up slightly, to about 20 percent. We’ll see.
Very high heat will continue to hold sway over Texas next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Next week
Truth be told, I don’t envision much change as we get deeper into August next week. The only potential ray of hope is that daily rain chances will inch upward, from 10 percent this week to perhaps 30 percent next week. My goodness, our yards could certainly use the break.
Unfortunately, we can expect more extreme heat today with a high pressure system anchored solidly over the southern United States, and exerting its influence over Texas. Very high heat will, unfortunately, persist through the weekend and into next week. There are signs of subtle changes in our forecast, but the relentless heat we’ve seen since June is likely to relent onward for awhile.
At sunrise this morning temperatures were in the low 80s. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
Like Monday, this will be another very warm day, with highs likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the region. A weak disturbance is going to try and make its way through the mid-levels of the atmosphere later this afternoon, and in concert with daytime heating may produce some isolated showers. It will have its work cut out with all the sinking air, so I’d peg rain chances at only about 10 percent this afternoon and early evening. So yeah—probably not. But maybe. Winds will be light, out of the southwest.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
More of the same, which is to say hot, sunny, and humid. Look for high temperature of 100 degrees for much of the area away from the coast. You know the drill.
Saturday and Sunday
By this weekend the aforementioned high pressure system will start easing to the west a bit. This may eventually provide a slight amount of relief, but it’s going to be slow in coming. So we can probably expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees again this weekend, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, increasing to 20 percent on Sunday
More extreme heat is likely next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Next week
Houston’s torrid summer continues next week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Rain chances may tick up a bit, but at this point I don’t think we’re looking at anything higher than 20 or 30 percent daily odds. I know this is brutal to read, and believe me, it’s difficult to write.
Unfortunately, that light is the Sun. And it’s going to be blazing hot and bright for the foreseeable future.
Sadly, if you are coming to this morning’s post looking for hope about Houston’s forecast, I can only offer a few crumbs. First of all, after this week, I think conditions may return to slightly more normal-ish weather for August. If that sounds hopeful, well, just remember that August in Houston is already pretty miserable. On the rain front we’re still looking at 5 to 10 percent daily chances this week, but by next week our daily rain chances may well jump up to about 30 percent a day, again a pattern more typical of high summer in Houston. Finally, our days are getting shorter. We have lost about 30 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice in late June, and that trend will accelerate in August. Houston is probably about six weeks away from having any expectation of the season’s first front. So some relief is coming—eventually.
Not great, Bob. (Weather Bell)
Monday and Tuesday
The story of our weather this week, however, is going to sound very similar. We’re under a potent ridge of high pressure that will consistently push high temperatures for areas inland of Interstate 10 to 100 degrees or higher this week. Monday and Tuesday look to bring the hottest weather, with afternoon temperatures and humidity combining to push heat conditions into the “extreme” level based on wet bulb globe temperatures, which factor in raw temperatures, dewpoints, wind, and other factors to provide a sense of heating. Those winds, by the way, will be light, at just 5 to 10 mph from the southwest.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Big-time heat continues this week, with highs of around 100 degrees, and lows around 80 degrees, and plenty of humidity. Rain chances, as mentioned in the post’s introduction, will be on the order of 5 to 10 percent.
Saturday and Sunday
Toward the end of this week the high pressure system will slowly start to retreat westward, and that will have some subtle effects on our weather this weekend. First of all, temperatures may come down a degree or two. Still very hot, but not excessively so. And perhaps we will see some more clouds, with rain chances rising to about 20 percent each day. Let’s not kid ourselves, though. For the most part these look to be very hot and sunny days.
As high pressure eases westward (over northern Mexico and southern California) next week, Houston’s forecast looks slightly better. (Weather Bell)
Next week
I’m going to ballpark highs next week in the upper 90s, with a daily 30 percent chance of rain, give or take. So again, the takeaway this morning is that this week looks extremely hot; next week a bit less so, and I would urge you to hang in there. This can’t last forever. And it won’t. Even if it seems like it will.
We haven’t written a whole lot about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yet on Space City Weather because there just has not been a whole lot to write about, and certainly nothing threatening to the Gulf of Mexico. However, that is likely to start changing in another two or three weeks, as we approach the heart of the season. I am particularly concerned about the extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which would support the rapid intensification of hurricanes.
In any case, today we are cross-posting our daily update from The Eyewall. This is the new website that Matt and I created this year to provide more in-depth coverage about storms across the Atlantic. This will not change anything we do on Space City Weather; but for those interested in the broader tropics, it provides much more information about all that is happening. So if you have friends or family members beyond Houston who are interested in tropical weather, this is a good place to point them to. Without further ado, then, here is today’s post on The Eyewall.
One-sentence summary
The odds of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing have increased to 40 percent today, but while it’s worth watching (especially in Bermuda), for now it seems most likely to turn away from the Caribbean and America.
Happening now: We’re still a few days away from the next Atlantic wave’s development window
If I showed you a satellite image of the Atlantic this morning, and I asked you to identify the area you would be most interested in monitoring for tropical development, I would assume that you’d pick the one near Florida.
The current view of the tropics on Thursday morning: Storms near Florida and lots of disjointed activity in the open Atlantic. (College of DuPage)
While that is certainly beefy looking, it’s being entirely driven by an upper-level low, not a surface-based system. Tropical development is unlikely to nil in that case. Though, this will hopefully do something to temper the outrageously warm water temperatures surrounding Florida right now. That said, modeling is actually latching onto the tropical wave located this morning around 30°W longitude. If we look at that on satellite, we’re probably all giving it the Larry David treatment.
The tropical wave that models have become fairly bullish on is rather disorganized at this time. Odds of development are near zero in the immediate term but increase to 40 percent over the next 3 to 7 days. (Weathernerds.org)
But! As we go through the next few days, this area is expected to consolidate some and become a little better organized. It will track generally west or west-northwest. Modeling insists it could develop. There is actually very good agreement between the GFS and European operational models and their ensembles (which are 30 to 50 different runs of the model with various initial tweaks) that this will develop, albeit not in a huge way. That aside, this is arguably the best agreement we’ve seen since Don formed. In my estimation, models have tended to be rather aggressive with development in the main development region (MDR) and Caribbean this year. So, while odds of development are on the increase and there’s good model agreement on this, we’ll see. Model odds of development over the next week are probably closer to 80 or 90 percent, but given recent struggles, the NHC estimate of 40 percent seems much more realistic to me.
Anyway, development of this system will likely be slow as it comes westward over the next 3 to 5 days.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): That tropical wave (should) swim with the fishes
One other thing that the models are in good agreement on right now is that whatever happens with this tropical wave, it is likely to turn northwest and north and eventually out to sea, missing the Caribbean and the U.S. Never say never, but that’s comforting for now. I would argue that there’s good reason to watch this if you are in Bermuda though just in case.
As the disturbance comes west, it should be able to split the gap in a weakness between two high pressure systems over the Atlantic, which should allow it to turn north and avoid most land. (Tropical Tidbits)
Beyond this wave, there’s nothing terribly exciting to focus on in the tropics through day ten.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All good for now
Quite frankly, it’s almost disturbingly quiet on the models right now out in the extended range. It does seem like we’re entering a briefly hostile background period in the Atlantic beginning around the first day of August. This is due to background activity associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves. I won’t get into the heavy details here, but you can read and learn about the MJO and hurricanes and convectively coupled Kelvin waves here. Eric Blake at the NHC is a great forecaster, and this presentation that the WMO has online is really useful. All that to say that I would suspect that things pick back up again after August 10th or so.
