Eric Berger

Good morning. We are now about half-way through the month of September, and so far this month Houston has enjoyed slightly cooler than normal conditions. Looking ahead, however, it does appear as though the second half of the month will be warmer than normal, with highs climbing back into the mid-90s for much of next week, and possibly beyond as a high pressure ridge builds over the region. The good news is that, despite the formation of Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, we have few local concerns about the tropics during what typically is the peak of the season for the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday

A bit of dry air is holding on this morning, but low temperatures across Houston are generally warmer than they have been the last couple of days. This trend will continue as the onshore flow establishes itself, and pushes humidity levels back up to summertime levels this weekend. Highs today will likely reach about 90 degrees, or slightly above, under mostly sunny skies, with light winds. Areas south of Houston, particularly near Matagorda or Galveston bays, have a slight chance of seeing some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s for most of the area.

Friday and Saturday

Atmospheric moisture levels should spike on Friday and Saturday, and this will lead to some reasonably healthy daily rain chances in the range of 50 or 60 percent for coastal areas, up to about Interstate 10. The northern half of the region, however, is likely to remain mostly dry. This could be a situation where the coast picks up 1 or 2 inches of rain, and areas such as Tomball or The Woodlands maybe catch a sprinkle here or there. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies.

Sunday

This should be another mostly sunny day, but with rain chances perhaps half that of the previous two days as high pressure starts to build over the area. Expect highs in the low 90s.

Next week and beyond

There is no way to sugarcoat things about next week. As high pressure comes back into play, the region is going to see fairly warm conditions, with high temperatures likely in the mid-90s. With the sea breeze the atmosphere may be able to squeeze out a few showers during the afternoon, but for the most part these should be mostly sunny days. I don’t see anything significantly changing until at least next weekend, and perhaps not then. Our next cold front is probably not coming for at least 10 to 14 days, and while there are some hopeful signs in the models at that time, there’s no guarantee of one then. So yeah, summer’s back.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Fiona formed on Wednesday, and it should affect Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other Caribbean Island this weekend. But as we’ve been suggesting for a couple of days, this system is very probably not bound for the Gulf of Mexico, and in fact it should turn north before approaching Florida or the Southeastern United States. Beyond Fiona the tropics are fairly quiet, which is great for mid-September.

Houston’s brief fling with almost fall-like weather will come to an end within the next 12 to 24 hours as winds turn easterly, and then more southeasterly, bringing moist air from the Gulf of Mexico back into the region. This will set the stage for late summer weather, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, for the foreseeable future. Skies will be mostly sunny for the most part, but coastal areas will see a healthy chance of at least light showers this weekend.

Wednesday

Conditions this morning are rather pleasant across the region, with low temperatures generally in the upper 60s, with slightly warmer temperatures along the coast. High temperatures should warm fairly quickly this morning, due to the somewhat drier air in place. Look for highs to reach about 90 degrees with sunny skies, and rain chances near zero. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph, out of the northeast. Lows tonight will be about 70 degrees in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast, and slightly cooler inland.

Thursday

This should be another mostly sunny day, with highs somewhere in the range of 90 degrees. As winds turn more southeasterly, humidity levels will start to come back up. While we can’t entirely exclude rain chances, I’d peg them at 10 percent or less for Houston except for the immediate coast where there will be more moisture available.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Starting on Friday, and lasting through the weekend, moisture levels will continue to rise across the region. Effectively this means we’re likely to see sunny mornings, and then the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the sea breeze migrates inland, and we see peak daytime heating. I’d expect daily rain chances of around 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, with lesser chances further inland. Highs will be dependent upon localized shower activity, but likely will range from 90 degrees to the low 90s. Days and nights will be muggy.

Next week

Alas, this warm and fairly humid pattern seems likely to stick around for awhile. There’s no real sign of a meaningful cool front on the horizon for at least the next 10 days, and then only hazy possibilities after that. I’d love to be able to tell you otherwise, believe me.

Tropics

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center, shown above, looks fairly ominous with a tropical system poised to plow into the Caribbean Islands this weekend. However, most of our reliable guidance is not overly bullish on this developing into a strong hurricane at that time, and the storm will probably turn northward before approaching Florida. It’s still something to watch, but our concerns for something getting into the Gulf of Mexico at this time are quite low.

Good morning. It is far from chilly outside, but dewpoints have dropped into the low 60s this morning for much of the region, and this dry air feels pretty nice. Houston will see a couple of more reasonably pleasant, dry-ish days before atmospheric moisture levels start to increase, some rain chances return to the region. This warmer, late summer pattern should hold on through most of next week.

Tuesday

After starting out in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning, daytime highs will warm into the low 90s beneath sunny skies. Winds will be generally light, out of the east, at about 5 mph. This evening should again be pleasant, with temperatures in the 70s and this somewhat drier air. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s for most of the region, away from the coast, with mostly clear skies.

Wednesday

Pretty much a carbon copy of Tuesday, with perhaps even slightly drier air, although I’m not sure this will be perceptible.

Thursday

This will be a bit of a transition day as moisture levels start to increase, and with it the potential for a few scattered showers near the coast. Look for mostly sunny skies otherwise, with highs in the low 90s. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast has turned a bit more uncertain as the overall pattern now appears to favor a return to somewhat wetter conditions. Moisture levels will be highest near the coast, so we’re probably looking at daily rain chances in the vicinity of 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, and 30 percent or so further inland. I’m still anticipating mostly sunny skies otherwise, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Overnight lows should be solidly back into the mid-70s, with plenty of humidity, by this weekend. Hopefully we can pin down a more accurate weekend forecast for you by tomorrow.

Next week

Most of next week should continue to bring weather typical of late summer in Houston, which is to say warm days in the low 90s, and at least partly sunny skies. Rain chances will persist next week, but I’m not confident in whether they’ll be low, or or bit higher than that. The forecast models are starting to hint at the potential for another cold front about 10 or 11 days from now, but I probably wouldn’t even write that down in pencil yet, let alone ink.

Tropics

Fourteen years ago, today, Hurricane Ike made landfall along the upper Texas coast. This remains the region’s worst storm surge event during at least the last half century. I remember it distinctly, listening to the winds howl through the skyscraper-lined streets of downtown Houston. Happily, the tropics are quiet today.

As I wrote in a dedicated hurricane post on Monday, we’re getting close to the end of the Texas hurricane season, but we’re not quite there yet. We’re continuing to watch a tropical wave in the Atlantic (noted in orange above) that has a chance to get into the Gulf of Mexico next week. I think the chance that this system affects Texas is rather low, but given the time of year we’ll be watching it closely regardless.

There is no doubt it has been a blessedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Overall activity is running less than half of “normal” for the Atlantic basin this summer, and this is all the more remarkable given that forecasters predicted a significantly busier-than-normal season in 2022.

From a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic basin passed the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10. Typically, during any given year, nearly 50 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes will form between now and the end of October. For Texas, the timeline is still more compressed. Our chances of being struck by a hurricane fall dramatically after about two weeks from now. So we’re close, but we are definitely not there yet.

Two waves

The Atlantic tropics are really quiet for this time of year, with the National Hurricane Center tracking just two tropical waves—these waves are not in the ocean, by the way, but rather are low pressure systems in the atmosphere with the potential to become tropical systems. Each has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next five days. Of these systems, the one we probably need to watch is the closer of the two to the United States.

At present this is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, but it may find reasonably favorable conditions for development later this week. By around Sunday, something could form near Puerto Rico. In fact, there is decent agreement among many of the European model ensemble members in support of a weak system. After that point, who knows? The system might never develop. It might fall apart. It might move into the Gulf of Mexico. Or it might curve northward toward Florida or the Southeastern United States.

The other potential threat during the next 10 days is some sort of development in the Bay of Campeche that may have some pathway to move north in the Gulf of Mexico.

To be clear: Neither of these systems, at this point, appear to pose anything remotely close to a significant threat to Texas. The present quietude of the tropics, at this time of year, is truly a blessing for North America and the Caribbean Sea. But that doesn’t mean it will last, and during the last two or three weeks of prime tropics time for Texas, we do have a couple of things to watch. Hopefully, in two weeks, I’ll be writing a post saying that we’re pretty confident we’re done with hurricane season in Texas.

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