Eric Berger

Before jumping into the forecast, let’s review the widespread rains the region experienced over the last several days. The map below displays rainfall total estimates for the previous week across the metro area. As always there is a broad variation in the precipitation over such a broad area, with some areas receiving as little as 0.25 inch, and others near Clear Lake more than 6 inches. But pretty much everyone received at a least a modest soaking during the Thursday through Saturday period.

The window for widespread rainfall will now close for awhile, with only a smattering of afternoon chances later this week. Overall, the forecast looks to be fairly boring, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. It will, essentially, be weather typical for late summer in Houston. This is the time of year when we can realistically start looking to mid-range models to see if any significant fronts are on the horizon. Alas, I just checked. There are not.

Monday

Drier air is moving into the region, and we’re going to bottom out with dew points in the 50s this afternoon. That will make our highs in the low 90s feel a bit more comfortable. Skies will be mostly sunny today with light easterly winds. Temperatures this evening should be fairly pleasant, about 80 degrees, with slightly slower humidity. Outdoor plans would be a good thing. Lows tonight will reach their lowest this week, probably, with low 70s in the city. Some lucky inland locations will see the upper 60s tonight.

Tuesday

We’ll have one more day with slightly drier air, but the onshore flow is headed back on Tuesday, so humidity levels will only be a stitch below normal levels. Highs, again, should be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will turn southeasterly. Lows on Tuesday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday

As high pressure takes control of our weather, we can expect to see highs in the low 90s, sunny skies, and warm nights in the mid-70s. But the ridge won’t be so strong as to preclude a 20 or 30 percent chance of afternoon or evening showers, along with the sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The late week pattern should more or less persist through the weekend. The last gasp of a dying front will approach the region on Sunday, and this may bring a bump in rain chances, but I don’t have much confidence in how that will ultimately play out at this point.

Next week

At this point I’d bet on next week’s weather being similar to this week’s—there’s just not a whole lot of change in the near-term forecast.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics continue to sizzle with activity, with Hurricane Nigel following behind the now dissipated Hurricane Lee, and potentially more storms on the way. Fortunately Nigel does not appear to be a threat to land. Moreover, the Gulf of Mexico continues to look exceptionally quiet for at least the next week. Head over to The Eyewall for a full rundown on the tropics today, and every day.

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. After the widespread showers and thunderstorms the region experienced on Friday afternoon, we just wanted to provide a quick update for the rest of the weekend, and early next week.

The overall pattern remains more or less in place today, with a stationary boundary and a moist atmosphere capable of supporting rain storms. Conditions should remain fairly calm this morning, but by noon we should start to see the development of showers to the west of the Houston metro area, and these will gradually move eastward. The most likely time for showers and at least a few thunderstorms will be this afternoon and early evening. The western half of Houston is more likely to see showers than the eastern half; call it a 50 percent chance west of downtown, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Highs today will top out at about 90 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies.

By Sunday we should see the influx of drier air, which should shut down rain chances. Plan outdoor activities with confidence with daytime highs in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies.

As the drier air moves in, the city will see some slightly cooler mornings on Monday and Tuesday, with some far inland areas perhaps briefly dropping into the upper 60s. It’s not fall, but we’re not that far away from fall now. Highs for most of next week will probably slot somewhere in to the low 90s.

Good afternoon. We’re jumping in to say that yes, that potential for heavy rainfall we’ve been talking about was in fact real. And that it is happening right now. Essentially we have seen the collision of two atmospheric boundaries over the metro area this afternoon, and it has combined with daytime heating to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.

This rainfall is very much welcome, and helping to put a dent in our extreme drought conditions. But it has also come at an inconvenient time, with the Friday evening rush hour upon us, and the prospect of some high water in streets. While we do not anticipate significant flooding concerns, please do take some extra time and caution on the roadways this evening.

I do think that the slow movement of these storms to the southeast should continue, with the bulk of the heavy rainfall likely moving offshore by around sunset, if not before. After that we expect a fairly quiet period overnight and during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, it’s possible that we will see another round of storms on Saturday afternoon. We’ll have an update for you on Saturday morning with the latest on what to expect this weekend.

Good morning. As anticipated, much of the area on Wednesday along and south of Interstate 10 recorded rainfall. Today, widespread showers will extend across most of the rest of the region as an atmospheric disturbance moves in from the west. This will provide lift for the very moist air at the surface, and should lead to some healthy showers and thunderstorms.

We’ll see some additional rain chances on Friday and Saturday, but all indications are that today will probably be the main event. I would expect that most (but not all) of the area will pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall today, with lesser accumulations possible on Friday and Saturday. Although a few intense downpours may briefly produce street flooding, these rains will, by and large, be very much welcome after our summer of heat and drought.

Thursday

Overall rain chances will be about 80 percent today given the favorable environment. Based upon the latest modeling I expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing by mid- to late-morning, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours. With mostly cloudy skies and rain cooled air, much of the region probably will record highs today in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances will slacken some overnight, but additional showers are possible.

Friday and Saturday

As of this point, both Friday and Saturday look to have similar weather conditions. We can expect partly cloudy skies and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain both days. In terms of accumulations, both days may see rain totals measured in tenths of an inch, with a few higher isolated totals. Rain chances will persist into the evening and overnight hours. Both days should see highs of around 90 degrees.

Sunday

It now looks like a lesser chance of rain will persist into Sunday, probably something like 30 percent. Skies will be mostly sunny otherwise, with highs of around 90 degrees or a bit higher. Sometime on Sunday a weak front will push offshore, ushering in some slightly drier air into the region. This will effectively end rain chances, and should allow lows on Sunday night to drop into the low 70s for most of the area.

Next week

The slightly drier air should hang around for Monday and Tuesday, leading to some decently pleasant mornings and evenings. Highs will likely top out in the vicinity of the low 90s for most of next week, perhaps reaching the mid-90s toward week’s end. As the humidity returns in full force by around midweek, we should start to see the return of a few clouds and rain chances of perhaps 20 percent each day. This is about how mid-September should feel as we await the true onset of fall in the form of a strong-ish cold front. (For which there is nothing in sight, I’m afraid).