Eric Berger

Good morning. The focus for moderate to heavy rainfall has shifted to the coast and offshore this morning, putting down a considerable amount of rain in locations near Matagorda Bay. The Houston metro area will continue to see healthy rain chances through at least the middle of next week, but accumulations do not look all that significant, such that we should be worried about flooding. We also need to keep an eye on the tropics, which may start to blossom as we approach Labor Day Weekend. We’ll discuss all of this below.

Thursday

With a weak boundary set up along the coast today, that’s where the bulk of the precipitation will lie. If you live north of Interstate 10, skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s, and low rain chances. The closer you get to the coast, the greater the chance of clouds and rains, and accordingly highs should only reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Right along the coast, accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible, but amounts will be much lower for areas just a bit inland. Winds will generally be light, out of the north. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday

Houston’s atmosphere will remain in an unsettled pattern on Friday, and for the next several days, due to the absence of high pressure and fairly high atmospheric moisture levels. However, there appear to be no triggers for rainfall, so we’re looking at a pattern where showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening hours, along with daytime heating and the sea breeze. Accordingly, expect highs in the low 90s on Friday, with partly sunny skies, and about a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday

This forecast should more or less hold for the weekend. If you have morning plans outdoors, they should be fine. Things may become a little more challenging during the afternoons and evenings, with the potential for a passing shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the vicinity of 90 to 95 degrees.

Next week

As we head into September, don’t expect too much of a pattern change. We’ll continue to see highs in the low 90s, for the most part, with a healthy chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These conditions will probably hold until the second half of next week, as we approach Labor Day weekend. After that time our weather may be influenced by the tropics.

Tropics

So far it has been an exceptionally quiet August for the Atlantic tropics, but we continue to see signs that is going to change. Moreover, one of the systems we’re watching has a decent chance of moving into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week or so from now.

To illustrate this let’s take a look at an ensemble forecast from the European model, which runs a few dozen variants of the main model to provide a range of outcomes. This is useful because if a lot of ensemble members have similar forecasts, then we can have a reasonable amount of confidence in such a forecast coming to pass. Below, in the ensemble model’s forecast for one week from this morning, we can see the European model pinpointing three different areas for development.

Of most concern to us is the blob I’ve marked “1.” Both the European and US GFS models have been highlighting this potential for a couple of days, and I’d say there’s a pretty good chance that some sort of tropical system, whether it be a disorganized area of thunderstorms or a tropical storm, will reach the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. After that, it probably would move into the Gulf of Mexico. It could really go anywhere after that, but the most likely locations would be Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana. The bottom line is that we’re looking at the possibility of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as we head into Labor Day weekend.

This is not something you should panic about, by any means. The storm must overcome wind shear and a host of other obstacles. But as we get into late August and early September, we’re going to be watching all of these waves closely, because the next month is prime time for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.

A message from Reliant, our sponsor

As Eric and Matt closely watch the tropics for us, Reliant wants to encourage Texans along the coast to start preparing – even before a storm is brewing. The first 72 hours after a storm hits are the most crucial to save lives. Supplies like bottled water, backup power, shelf-stable food, first aid kits, emergency blankets, waterproof protection for documents, signaling glow sticks and whistles are important to have gathered in advance. You can find a helpful storm prep checklist at the Reliant Storm Center.

If you live in Fort Bend County, Reliant is teaming up with its parent company, NRG, and nonprofit Attack Poverty to distribute 2,500 emergency preparedness buckets that come with many of these supplies. The next distribution is on Saturday, August 27. Location and timing details are released 24-48 hours before and can be found at https://attackpoverty.org/response/preparedness/.

Good morning. Houston’s wet pattern will persist for awhile, but today and Thursday offer the best chances for widespread and heavy rainfall before the precipitation eases back just a bit. Overall we don’t have any real concerns for significant flooding, but we should continue to see the potential for some street flooding beneath the stronger storms. Additionally, we will need to monitor the tropics over the next month, as there are indications that the Atlantic is waking from its long slumber.

Wednesday

Showers will be likely today across the region, with the potential for more widespread rainfall closer to the coast, south of Interstate 10, where the most atmospheric moisture will be. I think much of the region will pick up between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain today, with totals greater the further south one goes. Some isolated areas could pick up 2 to 4 inches within the stronger and slower moving storms. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit high temperatures to the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and winds will generally be light out of the southwest. Basically, this is a day when you want to check the radar before heading out of doors, just to make sure nothing too intense is headed your way. Rain chances will slacken this evening, with the loss of daytime heating.

Thursday

This should be a day similar to Wednesday in terms of the overall setup, I just don’t expect showers to be quite as widespread, nor the rainfall quite as heavy. The focus should again be closer to the coast for the stronger showers. For now, I’m thinking ‘Wednesday lite’ in terms of stormy weather, with highs for most of the region reaching about 90 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Overall, Houston will remain in a pattern favorable for additional rain through the weekend. What should change is that some of the factors that favor heavy rainfall should start to wane, so that we enter a situation where showers spin up and then quickly move along. So for this weekend I think we’re probably looking at partly sunny skies, highs in the 90 to 95-degree range, and perhaps 50 to 70 percent chance of rain. Again I don’t think these won’t be all-day kinds of rains, but you should at least be planning for the potential of a passing shower.

Next week

We’re unlikely to see the return of high pressure next week, so we should see see temperatures continue in the 90 to 95-degree range, with a decent chance of showers during the daytime, and less so at night. It now looks as if this pattern will persist into early September. If you’re wondering whether there’s any hint of fall’s first real front in the medium-range models, the answer is, alas, no. I’ll be a summer bummer and say it is not time for fall yet.

Tropics

It is time, however, to start watching the tropics. While there is a tropical wave in the deep Atlantic showing signs of life, for the Gulf of Mexico our focus should be on a low pressure system that will move into the Caribbean Sea later this week. There is now a decent amount of support in the ensembles of the GFS and European models for this to potentially develop into a tropical storm next week. The obvious question is, where will it go after that? Expect to see some social media noise during the next couple of days because the operational run of the GFS model, for the last few runs, has been bringing a fairly strong tropical system to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast late next week. However there are a very, very broad range of outcomes here, and the scenario with the most support right now would see a weaker tropical system that tracks more westward, into the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico. So really, anything can happen.

The bottom line is that this is a system for us to watch at this point, and that should come as no surprise as we’re in the midst of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. For now, as usual, be wary but not worried.

Good morning. Areas north of Interstate 10 saw some additional heavy rains during the overnight hours, but those showers have tapered off this morning. The atmosphere is fairly well worked over as a result, so things should be quiet this morning, and we’ve lifted our Stage 1 flood alert for the northern half of the metro area. But we’ll remain in a pattern favorable for the development of heavy rainfall through at least Wednesday. Additional rainfall totals for most areas should be manageable, at 1 to 3 inches, but we remain concerned about the potential for street flooding beneath downpours.

On the upside, these rains are putting a very nice dent into the region’s drought, and temperatures should continue to run at or below normal levels for the rest of August. This offers a nice reprieve after our record hot June and July.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, and this should help to hold high temperatures in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees for most of the area. I expect the radar to remain fairly calm this morning, but later this afternoon the potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase. Overall, however, this activity later today does not look too organized. Favored areas for heavy rain will, once again, be located north of Interstate 10 closer to a weak frontal boundary.

Wednesday

It still looks like Wednesday will produce the best chance of widespread rainfall for this week, with area-wide shower chances of 70 percent or higher. I think much of the region will pick up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain on Wednesday. At this point it looks like shower chances will be greatest during the morning hours, so that may be something to watch for with Wednesday morning’s commute. With mostly cloudy skies expect highs to reach the upper 80s, for the most part.

Thursday and Friday

The chance for heavy rainfall will linger toward the end of the week, but we’re going to see conditions favoring such activity start to decrease as the upper atmosphere becomes less supportive. I’d say about 50 percent of the area will see rain each day. Highs probably will return to about 90 degrees, with a mix of daytime clouds and sunshine.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend should see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 90 degrees. Some decent 30 to 40 percent rain chances will linger on Saturday and Sunday, but at this point accumulations looks slight, and any showers that do form should pass fairly quickly.

Overall, next week, the atmosphere looks to remain unsettled in the absence of high pressure. Look for high temperatures to continue in the neighborhood of 90 degrees, with daily rain chances of 50 percent, or perhaps even a bit higher. We have no significant flooding concerns at this time.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to track a wave in the Atlantic that is moving westward. However, this wave is encountering a lot of dry air, and development this week is unlikely. Aside from that, things look fairly quiet for several days. However, by next week it does look as though things will start to kick off a bit more. We’ll need to watch the Caribbean Sea for potential activity, as well as additional tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Nevertheless, for late August, this is a great place to be when it comes to the Atlantic tropics.

Good evening. Just a quick update to say that we’re expecting shower and thunderstorm activity during the overnight hours to be more widespread than previously thought, and that this threat will persist into Tuesday. The greatest risk for heavy rainfall continues to be north of Interstate 10, so we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for parts of the metro area along and north of this freeway. Areas south and west of Houston may also see some heavy rain, but the biggest threat appears to be further inland, to the north.

The problem is that a slow-moving boundary is sagging into the region from the northwest this evening, and it’s finding an environment fairly conducive for additional showers and thunderstorms tonight. In meteorology speak, we’re likely to see the convergence of boundaries that efficiently produce upward motion in the atmosphere. Given the overall tropical air mass, some storms could produce rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour, or higher, which will quickly back up streets. Some parts of the Houston metro area could see an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain overnight, into Tuesday morning, with higher isolated totals. The potential for heavy rainfall, again focused north of Interstate 10, will likely continue on Tuesday.

Here’s the truth: We’re not entirely sure what will happen. We know the ingredients are there for heavy rainfall tonight. It could be a bust, or some location in San Jacinto County could pick up 6 or 8 inches. What we can say for sure is that the atmosphere has potential for heavy rains tonight, and we wanted to call your attention to it. We’ll be back with a full update in the morning.