Eric Berger

Good morning. In today’s post we’re going to discuss the four warmish days Houston will experience before a significant cooldown on Friday that will bring us much colder, fall-like weather for awhile. For those who have been pining away for a sustained stretch of sweater-and-hot-chocolate weather, your time is at hand.

This morning Matt and I also want to announce the opening of our annual fundraiser. Every November, for three weeks, we sell t-shirts, baseball caps, umbrellas, and more—as well as accepting donations only—to support the operation of the site. Your purchases and donations help pay for our server costs, fund the continued development of our weather app, and compensate everyone here at Space City Weather for our time. Every word we write is free, for all, thanks to your generous support.

This year we’re offering three different t-shirts and sweatshirts, as well as other merchandise. It all can found here on our 2022 fundraiser page. These items include:

• Squashing hype t-shirt
• Four seasons of Houston t-shirt
• Caricature of Matt and Eric t-shirt
• Space City Weather trucker hat
• Golf umbrella
• 22 oz. Tumbler

You may also simply donate funds by going to any product page, clicking “buy/donate,” and then ticking the “donate only” box. Thank you so much!

Tuesday

Houston faces a few more days of warmth before cooler air arrives. Today should be the sultriest, with mostly sunny skies, high temperatures in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. We cannot entirely rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon, particularly southwest of Houston, but overall chances are probably on the order of 10 percent. Lows tonight will be a degree or two cooler than Monday night, dropping into the upper 60s for much of the region.

Wednesday

Houston starts trending toward slightly drier air on Wednesday, when we should see highs in the low- to mid-80s, light southeast winds, and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures Wednesday night should drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

More modestly drier air will start to move into the area from the northeast by Wednesday night, and this will help bring down humidity levels a smidge. Look for highs around 80 degrees, with sunny skies, and overnight lows dropping into the low- to mid-60s.

Friday

Much more significant change is on the way Friday, with the arrival of a strong cold front. It’s not clear whether this will arrive during the daytime on Friday, or the evening hours, but it will bring a surge of significantly drier air into the region. Highs Friday will depend on the timing of the front, but upper 70s to 80 degrees seems like a decent bet. Right now I don’t anticipate too much in the way of showers or storms with the frontal passage, but it’s too early to say much with confidence. I’ll call it a 40 percent chance of rain, for now. Temperatures drop pretty quickly after the front passes, with gusty northerly winds.

Saturday and Sunday

Cold! This weekend will feel more like winter than fall. Both days will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, and high temperatures likely will peak in the upper 50s. Saturday will be a bit blustery, but winds should die down during the afternoon or evening hours. Lows on Saturday night should be the coldest of the week, possibly hitting 40 degrees just north of Houston. Sunday night should be almost as cold.

Next week

Something of a warming trend begins on Monday, but I think we’re going to stay in the 60s for high temperatures, for much of next week. It looks like the overall pattern may favor some mid-week showers followed by a reinforcing blast of colder and drier air. Did someone order winter? Because Mother Nature is door-dashing it to your home.

Good morning. Houston faces a sticky, and for November, very warm week ahead before a reasonably strong cold front arrives ahead of the weekend. Highs will be warmest to start the week before the region starts to see some slightly drier air from Subtropical Storm Nicole as it moves into Florida. The weekend will be downright chilly.

Monday

Some areas are seeing fog this morning with dewpoints and temperatures both in the low 70s, and very light winds. As the air temperature warms today, this fog should diminish. Temperatures are going all the way into the mid-80s today, as partly sunny skies this morning give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. There may be a few isolated showers north and west of Houston, but for the most part the metro area is going to stay dry today. If you’re headed to the Astros parade at noon in downtown Houston, please bring some water to stay hydrated with the ample humidity. Lows tonight should be a bit cooler, dropping to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

Some fog will again be possible to start the day. Otherwise Tuesday should be similar to Monday, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows will be a degree or two cooler on Tuesday night. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more of the same warm weather, although we way see moderately drier air filtering in as the western Gulf of Mexico falls on the backside of Subtropical Storm Nicole, which will be impacting Florida this week. Accordingly, by Thursday night, lows should be dropping into the mid-60s for much of the region.

Friday

Our next cold front should arrive on Friday, probably during the daytime. The overall dynamics don’t favor much in the way of precipitation or storms at this time, but we’ll have to see if this changes. While there is unlikely to be much rainfall, I do expect plenty of colder and drier air, almost immediately. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks quite chilly, with highs in the range of 60 degrees, partly cloudy skies, and lows in the 40s. This will be some of our coldest weather this fall. Most of next week looks to remain on the chilly side, with lows continuing in the 40s. There will be some slight rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps. If you’ve been waiting for a longer spell of cold weather this fall, this is it.

Tropics

Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed in the Atlantic, and it is likely to bring wet and windy conditions to Florida this week. Note that as a subtropical storm, Nicole will have impacts far from its center. Some in Houston may be wondering about the impact of this on the Artemis I launch which, after two previous launch scrubs, is counting down toward another attempt shortly after midnight on November 14.

The rocket and spacecraft are already on the launch pad, and they are able to tolerate wind gusts up to 74.1 knots. Nicole is unlikely to produce those kinds of winds at Kennedy Space Center, although it might get close as the National Hurricane Center predicts a 12 percent chance of sustained winds of 50 knots, with higher gusts. NASA has not provided a recent update, but my sense is that Nicole may impact preparations this week for the Nov. 14 launch attempt, less than a week from today.

Good morning. The next two days will be warm and muggy before a line of storms moves into the region on Friday evening, and during the overnight hours. This will usher in a brief period of cooler and drier weather before the onshore flow again returns us to a warmer pattern for much of next week. Cooler fall weather seems likely for later in November.

Thursday

The region will see patchy fog and a few scattered showers this morning before partly sunny skies later today. With light southeast winds, we’ll see plenty of humidity, and high temperatures should push into the low 80s. Temperatures this evening and overnight will be rather warm for November, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s for much of the region.

Astros forecast

The Houston Astros bounced back in a big way on Wednesday night, no-hitting the Phillies and bringing the World Series to two games to two. Game five is set for tonight, at 7:03pm CT, in Philadelphia. The weather should, again, be ideal for fall ball in the northeast. Game time temperatures will be about 60 degrees, falling into the mid-50s over the course of the game. Winds will be very light, and skies clear. Let’s go Astros!

Friday

This day will start out a lot like Thursday in Houston, although the afternoon will probably see a few more clouds, and even more moist air. Look for highs in the low- to mid-80s. Some light, scattered showers will be possible during the daytime, but the main event will not come until later, as a line of storms forms ahead of a cold front. Most model data suggest the front will reach the College Station area around 8 to 10 pm, push into Houston around midnight, and move off the coast a couple of hours later. These storms may be briefly intense, but as they will be moving fairly quickly from northwest to southeast, most areas should only pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Damaging winds and hail are possible, with the highest threat of severe weather north of Interstate 10.

Saturday

This will be a fine, fall-like day. Look for mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-70s, and moderate northerly winds. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the 50s, although how deep they go into the 50s will be dependent on how far you live from the coast.

Sunday

The aforementioned front will move offshore, but not all that far. So by Sunday I expect it will be pushing back inland, and this will start to bring humidity levels back up. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies. Lows by Sunday night will not drop much below 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week will be dominated by high pressure, which will mean sunny and warm days in the low 80s, and nights in the 60s. The air will be fairly muggy. Although it’s pretty far down the line, in terms of timing, most of the model guidance is pointing toward a stronger front in about eight or nine days that will usher in a longer period of cooler and drier weather. This would suit for mid-November, to be sure.

Tuesday’s showers may have been gloomy, but the 0.25 to 1 inch of rain most of the region received came in a slow-but-steady dose ensuring that the majority did not run off, but rather soaked into Houston’s dry soils. This is not the kind of rain that busts a drought, but as days get shorter and cooler, such precipitation does go a long way toward helping our areas trees and other vegetation. We’ll have another chance of rain on Friday evening and overnight, but these showers will be shorter and sharper, and therefore more prone to runoff.

Wednesday

In the wake of Tuesday’s showers, Houston will see a warming trend for the next three days ahead of the next front. After some patchy fog this morning, we’ll see mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. In response to falling pressures in the central United States, winds will turn more southeasterly later today at about 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Astros forecast

The Houston Astros are down a game in the World Series, but far from out. We can’t forecast what their bats will do in the series tonight, but weather conditions should be ideal for the Fall Classic. Game time temperatures in Philadelphia will be around 60 degrees, falling into the mid-50s. Skies will be clear, with light winds. Good luck, Astros!

Thursday

The southerly flow amps up a bit on Thursday across Houston, with winds perhaps gusting to 15 or 20 mph. This will push up temperatures and humidity levels. Look for highs around 80 degrees, or just above, with partly to mostly sunny skies. This will feel fairly sticky for early November. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees on Thursday night. Rain chances are low, but non-zero.

Friday

If you liked Thursday’s warmth and humidity, you’ll love Friday, because it should be that little bit warmer and more humid. Look for highs in the low- to possibly mid-80s. Winds will be pronounced, out of the south, perhaps gusting to 20 or 25 mph. At some point Friday evening or, more likely, overnight, a line of showers and thunderstorms will push southward through the metro area. I expect these storms to be most pronounced north of Interstate 10, but the whole region faces at least a slim threat of severe weather. Broadly speaking, most of the area should pick up 1 inch of rain, or so, as the storms should move through fairly quickly from northwest to southeast.

Saturday

This should be a pleasant fall day, with highs in the low 70s, as drier air filters in behind the front. Expect clearing skies and a modest northerly wind. We’re going to get one chilly night out of this front, and it will be Saturday night, with lows dropping into the low 50s for much of the region.

Sunday

Winds will shift to come back onshore pretty quickly, so highs on Sunday should reach the upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will already be starting to rise during the daytime, and Sunday night’s lows probably won’t fall below the mid-60s. Hope you enjoyed the front!

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, however there are some early indications of a fairly strong cold front pushing into the area in about 8 or 10 days, give or take. If you’ve been wanting some colder air, this may be just the ticket. We shall see.

Tropics

We have zero concerns about Texas, but it is noteworthy that we’re seeing one last, late season flourish in the tropics. Lisa is likely to strike Belize as a Category 1 hurricane later today. It should eventually spin itself out in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend as it succumbs to high wind shear. Tropical Storm Martin is probably going to become a hurricane before it exits into the northern Atlantic Ocean. And finally there’s an area of storminess near Hispaniola that may bring some winds and rains to Florida in about a week.