Eric Berger

Good morning. I hope everyone enjoyed the not-too-hot and not-too-cool weather over the weekend. It provided a nice antidote to the rain showers last week which, in turn, provided a nice boost of moisture to help our yards and trees and flowers as we get deeper into spring. This week will see mild conditions before some uncertainty arrives for this weekend. While I don’t envision widespread storms, there is the potential for some rainfall, and possibly thunderstorms.

Monday

Our weather today should be a lot like Sunday, in that we will see partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-70s and a moderate amount of humidity. Winds will again be light, perhaps 5 to 10 miles out of the northeast. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of a light shower later this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, to go along with mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Our moderate weather continues. You may be asking yourself, why are we seeing a prolonged period of northeasterly winds? Should not the onshore flow resume at some time? The answer is that a low-pressure system is wobbling around off shore, in the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a major concern for us weather-wise, but it will give us a pleasant pattern through Wednesday or Thursday in terms of light easterly-northeasterly winds and moderate humidity.

However, there are some indications that the low may get close enough to the Texas coast on Tuesday and Wednesday to produce some scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially for areas south of Interstate 10. Overall chances remain low, however, in the 20 to 30 percent range. Highs will be in the mid-70s, otherwise on Tuesday. Lows drop to around 60 in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

Aside from a moderate chance of showers on Wednesday, these days should see temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Lows may drop into the upper 50s under the influence of the northeasterly flow.

Friday

This day looks warmer, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. Lows Friday night will be warm, perhaps dropping to only 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to have to write the weekend forecast in pencil, I’m afraid. A front will be diving down through Texas, and some of the ingredients needed for a line of storms will be present, including instability. However at this point there is no slam dunk in terms of such conditions, and the front could pass through Saturday night or Sunday morning with a minimum of fuss.

The bottom line is that right now I can confidently predict warm conditions on Saturday, with highs somewhere in the 80s. There is also a healthy chance of rain. I’ll put in 50 percent as a placeholder, but it could go higher, during the daytime and evening, ahead of the front. Lows on Saturday night will depend on the timing of the front.

After the front’s passage, beginning Sunday and probably lasting through Tuesday, conditions look pleasant, with mostly sunny skies, highs perhaps in the upper 70s, and cool but not cold nights.

Good morning. The Houston region saw a burst of rainfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with widely varying totals. Some areas saw only a few tenths of an inch of rain, whereas parts of northwestern Montgomery County have recorded as much as 4 inches of rainfall. The Houston area will remain in a wet pattern through Friday before we dry out this weekend. Easter Sunday looks pleasant, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.

Thursday

The focus for rainfall this morning lies to the northwest of Houston, where a boundary just above the surface has remained more or less stationary. This area, including Austin, Waller, Washington, Brazos, Grimes, and Montgomery counties, will remain the focus for on-and-off shower activity this morning. Much of the Houston metro area may well remain rain-free during daytime hours today.

Later this afternoon and overnight, however, we are likely to see showers and thunderstorms developing closer to the coast, in and south of Houston. Overall accumulations today and tonight for the region are likely between 0.5 and 3 inches of rainfall. I think our Stage 1 flood alert covers things nicely. As always, remain weather aware when heavy rainfall threatens, and check conditions before venturing out.

Aside from precipitation, expect cloudy skies today with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds will be out of the northeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Winds will pick up tonight, perhaps gusting up to 30 or 35 mph. Low temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees, or maybe a few degrees lower.

Friday

Healthy rain chances continue overnight and into Friday, as a wet airmass remains in place, with the destabilizing presence of a cold front just offshore. This activity should start to wind down on Friday night, or Saturday morning at the latest. All told, most of the region will see an additional 1 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday night. Please take care in thunderstorms, and do not drive into high water. High temperatures on Friday may only reach the low to mid-60s, with continued mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

Rain showers should come to an end late Friday night, but we can expect clouds to persist for awhile. Highs on Saturday will be around 70 degrees, with moderate northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, the air will feel reasonably dry. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Sunday

Conditions on Easter Sunday look nice. We should see partly sunny skies during the late morning and afternoon hours, with highs pushing up into the upper 70s. There will be enough dry air for it to feel pretty pleasant outside. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the low 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks spring-like as well. Our highs look to be around 80 degrees, with nights in the 50s and 60s, and at least a modicum of drier air. A weak front may arrive on Tuesday-ish to provide a bit of slightly cooler weather. It does look like we’ll warm up some before next weekend, perhaps into the mid-80s. We shall see!

Good morning. A cold front is sagging southward toward our region, and this will set the stage for several cooler and rainy days. It certainly will not rain continuously from now through Saturday morning, but there will be periods of moderate and potentially heavy rainfall. Some areas will see accumulations of rainfall, over time, that may produce some street flooding. For this reason we have initiated a Stage 1 flood alert from noon today through Friday night.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm and humid this morning, with lows having dropped only into the mid-70s. The front will reach areas northwest of Houston by around noon, push into the city this afternoon, and reach the coast late this afternoon or early evening. I expect to see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front, but the bigger concern will likely come tonight and later this week. Why? Because the front is going to get hung up right along the coast, and as a result should help to generate nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms over time. Temperatures today should reach the low 80s ahead of the front, and drop into the low 60s tonight.

Thursday and Friday

The period from Thursday morning through Friday night is when we’re most concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. I wish I could be more precise in terms of impacts, but the short-term modeling is not terribly consistent with where the heaviest rainfall will set up. As a result, we’re going to have to continue to predict widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, with higher isolated totals.

I noted above that our primary concern is stationary storms, which this kind of setup—springtime, stalled front, plenty of moisture, and atmospheric disturbances—favors. For most of us, the rain totals should be completely manageable. Soils are reasonably dry, and the rains will be spread out over two days. But some locations will very likely see street flooding, so be weather aware the next couple of days. Highs on both days will be in the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Saturday

Fortunately, we’re increasingly confident that this mess is going to move out by Saturday morning, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Rain chances will be quite low after the morning, perhaps only 10 percent. Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

The same goes for Easter Sunday, in the sense that we expect the day to be rain-free. We also should see some partially clearing skies. So look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, therefore, with a splash of sunshine. With dewpoints around 60 degrees, the air will also feel decently dry. So all in all, it should be a rather nice holiday.

Next week

We have no weather concerns for next week. The region should see a slow warming trend such that temperatures reach the mid-80s toward the end of the week, with humidity levels creeping back up.

Good morning. Today will be the region’s last “hot” day for awhile, with temperatures in the upper 80s. A cold front will arrive on Wednesday to usher in several cooler and wetter days for the region. Because of the potential for rainfall accumulations over time, we have issued a Stage 1 flood alert for the period of noon on Wednesday through Friday. This means you can anticipate the potential for at least some nuisance street flooding. I do expect the rainfall to end in time for Easter Sunday, by which point the weather should be fairly pleasant.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly cloudy today with a pronounced southerly wind, at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Highs will reach the mid-80s, at least, with plenty of humidity. Winds will continue through most of the overnight hours, with low temperatures only dropping into the mid-70s for most.

Wednesday

The morning will start out warm and cloudy. It now appears that the cold front will not reach central Houston until around noon or the early afternoon hours. There will probably be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front as it moves through on Wednesday and pushes just off the coast. While there is the possibility of heavy rainfall during this time, it is important to note that I do not think this will be the “main event” when it comes to rain this weekend. That probably will come on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s after the front’s passage, and down to around 60 degrees on Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will serve as the focus for heaviest rainfall as the aforementioned front more or less gets hung up right along the coast. Stalled fronts, which open the door for atmospheric disturbances, have historically been rainmakers for Houston (Tax Day floods, anyone?). Precisely where this front stalls out is not yet determinable, but that will be where we can expect the heaviest rain. Highs, generally, will be in the 60s.

For now I’m going to ballpark rain widespread rain totals of 2 to 6 inches of rainfall this week, with higher isolated totals. Most of this will come sometime on Thursday and Friday. There won’t be continuous rainfall during this period, but there is the potential for at-times heavy rainfall that could cause some street flooding—hence the issuance of a Stage 1 flood alert. This basically means that you need to be weather aware before venturing out. It probably will be fine, but check to make sure. Matt and I will be covering the heavy rainfall as much as needed.

Saturday

We’re still going to see about a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday, but things should be winding down as the stalled front finally gets un-stalled and moves away. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 70 degrees. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s.

Sunday

By Easter Sunday we’re down to about a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain. Skies will probably start out cloudy, but by the afternoon we could see some sunshine peaking out. Highs will likely reach the mid- to upper-70s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

Overall our weather next week looks comparatively calm, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and lows somewhere in the 60s. Humidity returns, but at this point it looks like dewpoints will not be impressively high. So, not bad for mid-April?