Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post reviews the Atlantic hurricane season to date, and sets expectations for the remainder for Texas. We also look ahead to a front that will bring slightly cooler weather and increase the likelihood of rainfall for the upcoming holiday weekend.

The Atlantic tropics

It is now late August. Regular readers of this site will know that, although the Atlantic hurricane season lasts through November 30, Texas generally has an earlier shut off date. There are no absolutes in weather, but after late September, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas drop off significantly. So when we are thinking about prime time to be impacted by a hurricane, we have about one month to go.

So far this season Texas has seen minimal tropical activity, a few very modest rain events. However, the next month or so is typically the busiest time of year. After a burst of activity earlier this month with Erin (now gone) and Fernand (weakening), the Atlantic tropics are expected to be fairly quiet over at least the next week or so. In fact, if we look at the broader picture there are several background factors right now, including a large Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough over the Atlantic, that are creating a more hostile background for storms to form and intensify.

This pattern should persist into early September, so we are looking good for a bit. However, I still think there is a solid window in mid- and late-September when our region will be vulnerable to hurricanes. So yes, things are looking good. But for Texas, the Atlantic hurricane season is not yet over.

Tuesday

For a shining moment on Monday dewpoints in parts of Houston dropped briefly below 60 degrees, but that slightly drier air is now gone. Now, background moisture levels are rising and this will return us to an environment more favorable for rain. Chances today won’t be overly high, less than one-in-three for most locations, with the better chances close to the coast. Overall accumulations will be, for the most part, slight. With mostly sunny skies expect high temperatures this afternoon in the mid-90s, with a few locations further inland reaching the upper 90s. Lows tonight will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

Rain chances will increase to about 50 percent on Wednesday, and this should help to keep temperatures in the vicinity of the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations look to be modest, measured in the low tenths of an inch for areas that receive rain, or less.

Thursday

It looks like our likelihood of rain will back off a bit on Thursday, perhaps to around 30 percent. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will sag into the Houston region this weekend, and bring an increased likelihood of rain along with lower temperatures. Rain chances will be about 50 percent on Friday, peak on Saturday above 50 percent, and drop back a little bit on Sunday. These showers will be hit or miss, so if you have outdoor activities there’s still a chance they’re going to be fine. But you’ll definitely want to have a contingency plan. Through the weekend most of the region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but I’m sure we will have some higher bullseyes. The front will bring with it dynamics to support higher rainfall rates, so some locations may quickly pick up 3 inches or so. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

In terms of temperatures we can expect highs in the lower 90s on Friday, and perhaps the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Labor Day and next week

For our holiday next Monday we should see a continuation of the weekend-like weather, with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps a 40 percent chance of rain. Those kinds of temperatures for Labor Day weekend are definitely cooler than normal, so although the front is not going to feel “cold,” it’s likely going to have a meaningful impact on temperatures. Most of next week should remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with additional rain chances later in the week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the hints of forthcoming fall weather in our forecast, and also discuss the possibility of additional weather balloons in Texas. For our forecast, Monday looks to be quite hot, but with lower humidity After today there will be a smattering of rain chances all week, with the weekend looking cooler after a weak front (probably) arrives.

Signs of fall and weather balloons

I wanted to hit on a couple of notes this morning. First up is the realization that this is the final week of August, and a period when we often see high temperatures in the 100s in Houston. For this week Monday, especially, looks to see hot weather. But one of the reasons for this is that we are seeing an influx of drier air, which is a harbinger of stronger fronts that will be possible in a few weeks’ time. This afternoon we may see dewpoints drop into the upper 50s in Houston, and while this is not super dry, it is significantly less humid than normal for late summer. This drier air will allow afternoon highs to spike into the upper 90s. Additionally, we have the prospect of another weak front sagging into Houston this coming weekend. Now these August fronts don’t carry much oomph, but they pave the way for the possibility of more substantial fronts in September. Also, we might get some lows in the lower 70s out of it, possibly even upper 60s for far inland areas. So yes, it’s still summer out. But if I squint, I can see change on the horizon.

I also want to mention an editorial that appeared in the Houston Chronicle last week regarding the devastating Central Texas flooding in early July. The editorial correctly notes a paucity of weather balloon soundings over Texas (something we’ve often talked about here), and suggests that as part of their ongoing special session, Texas lawmakers consider creating a network of weather stations to better monitor conditions across the state, including setting up additional weather balloon launches on a daily basis. As a forecaster, I can say that this would definitely improve our ability to predict the most dynamic and impactful flooding events such as that which occurred near Kerrville.

Monday

As noted above, we are seeing an influx of drier air today. This should lead to a hot, mostly sunny day for the region. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s with a few far inland areas possibly toying with 100-degree weather. Overall humidity should be lower, however. So if you’re one of those “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity people,” today is your day to shine. Rain chances are near zero. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

A pattern change will see slightly more unsettled weather move into the area for the mid-week time frame. Overall rain chances will be on the order of 30 to 40 percent daily, and for the most part accumulations should slight, on the order of a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. A slight increase in cloud cover should help moderate temperatures a bit. Highs should be in the mid-90s for most locations. The dry air will be long gone, so expect ample humidity. Lows will drop into the upper 70s for most.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will approach the area on Friday, and likely push into the metro area on Saturday. The net impact of this should be to drive up rain rain chances to about 50 percent daily. Again, we are not looking at anything too special regarding accumulations, probably just tenths of an inch for the most part. But there could be a few stronger showers that bring a total of 1 inch or more to some areas near the coast by the end of the weekend. Highs on Friday should reach the mid-90s before falling to around 90 degrees this weekend with a few more clouds and slightly cooler air. Lows this weekend could drop into the low to mid-70s. Again, this is not chilly by any means, but a nice harbinger of what’s to come this fall.

Next week

The overall pattern next week should see continued highs mostly in the low- to mid-90s, with decent reain chances. Knock on wood, but I’m not seeing any sign of the early September spike in daily highs that the region sometime experiences.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the favorable setup for rain on Thursday and Friday in the greater Houston area, with the best conditions closer to the coast. Rains should diminish some this weekend, with Sunday looking especially sunny. Overall our temperatures look moderate for the rest of August.

A favorable setup for rain

There’s a lot of support for showers and thunderstorms to develop in our region today and Friday, with better coverage especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The atmosphere is laden with moisture, we have a nearly stationary boundary (essentially a dying front), the sea breeze, and plenty of daytime heating. In such an environment we are likely to see widespread showers, and within that some stronger and possibly severe thunderstorms.

The most likely time for activity is from mid-afternoon through the early evening hours, and the most favorable conditions will be closer to the coast (essentially, south of Interstate 10). Rain amounts will be widely variable, with some areas picking up a quarter of an inch, and other areas possibly 3 or more inches through Saturday. As a result we will probably see some ponding on roadways, and perhaps a few isolated flooding issues. Although we don’t anticipate major disruptions from these rains, you’ll want to check the radar before heading out. Slightly higher pressures should begin to limit shower coverage by Saturday.

Thursday

Overall rain chances are about 60 percent today in the region, although I’d go higher than that closer to the coast, and less for inland areas. We will see partly sunny skies, with light north or northeast winds. High temperatures for most locations will be in the mid-90s, but temperatures will quickly drop into the 80s, or possibly even upper 70s, within showers and thunderstorms. Humidity will remain high. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s with an ongoing (albeit lower) chance of showers.

Friday

This is probably the day when most people will see the most rain, so again prepare for the possibility of some brief disruptions. With increased cloud cover, expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Winds will be light. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 70s for most locations.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will see some lingering clouds and showers. Highs on Saturday, accordingly, should reach the lower 90s for most locations. But we should definitely be on a downward trend in terms of amounts, as high pressure begins to build to the west of the region. Sunday should be mostly sunny, with rain chances only in the vicinity of 20 percent. Expect highs in the mid-90s. So for beach and pool activities, Sunday is the pick of the litter.

Next week

To start next week we will remain in a pattern of mostly sunny weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and lower end rain chances. However by Wednesday or so we may start to feel the impacts of another decaying front. This probably will bring some increased rain chances, although to what extent it’s difficult to say. High temperatures also may hold somewhere in the vicinity of 90 degrees for much of Houston, which is a pretty great way to end August in these parts.

The Atlantic tropics

Hurricane Erin is passing almost directly between Bermuda and the Outer Banks this morning, remaining far enough offshore to avoid bringing catastrophic damage to both locations. After some intensification on Tuesday, it is also beginning to weaken. There are other storms that may form in the coming days, but I’m happy to report that we see no imminent threats to the Gulf at all. Again, this is a pretty great place to be, tropics-wise, as we get toward the end of August.

In brief: We may see an additional round of storms this afternoon as a disturbance drops into the area, and then fairly widespread showers are likely on Thursday and Friday. The outlook for the weekend is sunnier, with lower rain chances.

A few more words about August

I wanted to share some feedback I received after yesterday’s comments about August weather in Houston. (If you don’t remember, I basically said there is nothing redeeming about August’s weather here). This person wrote in to say:

“I really like the in-depth forecasts, but the continued complaining about Houston’s hot & humid climate does not serve you well …   If you moved here from a colder climate, and you don’t like the heat here, why torture yourself?  Move back and enjoy your life.  But if you’re going to call yourself a Texan, a Houstonian, or just live here, please consider dropping the complaints.  It’s one reason I don’t frequent your site more.”

First of all, thank you for the feedback. We are always looking to improve the site and be more responsive to reader needs. However, I will be ignoring this suggestion. Yes, I realize that there are some people who like peak summer weather in Houston. Bless your hearts. However I do call myself a Houstonian (having lived here for 28 years), and one of the defining things about being a Houstonian is the God-given right to complain about the summer weather here. If that turns you off, I’ll just have to live with that.

Wednesday

Today is an interesting one. We should see sunny skies and hot and humid weather, withs high pushing into the upper 90s this afternoon for all but inland areas. However, an upper level disturbance should drop down from north of the region later this afternoon and push into the city. I’ll be frank, the modeling has not been consistent with this. However, given what we have seen in recent days, and the abundant moisture in the atmosphere, I feel confident in predicting that some parts of the metro area will see rain this afternoon or early evening, and that some of these showers will turn into thunderstorms (possibly severe). So be on the lookout for storms later today, but they may very well not hit. Overall rain chances are probably only about 40 percent. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A frontal boundary will ooze into the area to end the work week, and while this won’t provide much in the way of dry air or cooler temperatures, it should be the spark for some fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals will, as is often the case, be highly variable across the region. I expect most of us to receive 0.5 to 1.5 inch, with higher bullseyes perhaps a little more likely south and east of the city. In any case, you should be prepared for downpours to interrupt outdoor activities, but it won’t rain all of the time. Highs should be a little lower, in the low- to mid-90s, with warm, humid nights.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure expands from our west this weekend it should slightly dry out the atmosphere and reduce daily rain chances to about 30 percent. These days should, accordingly, be mostly sunny with high temperatures probably in the vicinity of the mid-90s.

Next week

Next week is the final full week of August. Fortunately we look to be ending the month with (for Houston) relatively modest conditions, with highs in the low to mid-90s, and daily rain chances of maybe 20 to 40 percent. Another dying front will approach the area later in the week, but I’m not sure it will have that much sensible impact on our weather. We’ll see.