Eric Berger

In brief: As we have been forecasting for days now about Sunday, it is a very close call out there for freezing precipitation in Houston this morning. Temperatures are falling to just about to the freezing level as a line of showers moves through, and accordingly we are seeing everything at the moment: rain, freezing rain, sleet, eve a little snow. Impacts are to be determined.

Winter storm status

Houston is now receiving its second, and final round of precipitation with this winter event. The precipitation is continuing as temperatures fall to around the freezing level in the city, and it is leading to varying levels of impacts on roadways. Fortunately, much of the precipitation this morning has fallen as rainfall or sleet, and this has spared us from power-line impacts due to ice accumulations. As of 6 am CT only a few thousand CenterPoint customers are without power.

We strongly urge caution with using area roadways this morning. Some areas north and west of Houston are ice bound, and there are reports of ice on several Houston area freeways. I would treat all overpasses and ramps as suspect as well, with the potential for icy patches. However, with air temperatures still in the 31 to 34 degree range, roads in the city are not freezing quickly. Many are still wet rather than icy.

Sunday forecast

The showers (and a few thunderstorms) should exit the region to our east by around 8 am. And that will likely be the end of the precipitation. After this we are going to see gusty winds from the north, perhaps as high as 30 mph this afternoon as Arctic air surges into the region. We may also see some sporadic sunshine. Temperatures today are unlikely to rise much above freezing. Areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 may reach the mid-30s for a few hours this afternoon, but areas such as Katy, Cypress, and Kingwood may max out at about 30 degrees this afternoon.

All of this raises difficult to answer questions about the state of roads later today. On one hand, the precipitation ends, and strong winds will have a drying effect on roads. However, the colder temperatures this afternoon, especially for inland areas, will lock any ice into place. We will know more in a few hours, but at this point my expectation is for icy patches on roadways, with issues on bridges and overpasses. However, we are now unlikely to see a widespread ice storm, which should be favorable for impacts later today and on Monday morning. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours. Again, if you can stay home this morning it is highly advisable, because as temperatures fall this morning water on roads can freeze.

With mostly cloudy skies we should see low temperatures tonight drop into the 20 to 25 degree range in Houston. Ongoing northerly winds at 15 mph, with higher gusts, will add additional chill to the air. Please protect pets from this very cold weather tonight.

Monday

We should see clearing skies on Monday, but temperatures will be slow to warm with the ongoing advection of cold air into the region. By around noon, or shortly after, we should see temperatures rise above freezing for a few hours, reaching 35 to possibly 40 degrees for much of the region. Lows on Monday night will be similar to Sunday night, still very cold, but with clear skies and lighter winds.

Tuesday and beyond

By Tuesday we’ll be comfortably in the 40s for high temperatures, and then the 50s through Friday. After this time another Arctic front may be in the cards next weekend, although it’s not yet clear whether it will be as cold as this air mass (probably not?) or as impactful in terms of wintry precipitation. We shall see.

Our next post will come by around 2 pm CT this afternoon, when we will take a closer look at roads and electricity production statewide for a very cold night across Texas.

In brief: The forecast for our winter storm is coming into clearer focus this afternoon, and we now anticipate fairly widespread ice impacts on Sunday, which may extend into Monday. There is also the potential for thunderstorms (and thundersleet!) before the precipitation ends on Sunday. It’s all happening in winter storm 2026 Houston.

What to expect, and when

For this afternoon’s post we are going to break things down into what people should expect, and when. Houston will face a mix of winter-inspired threats over the next two days, everything from thundersleet—yes, it’s a real thing—to ice on roads. The bottom line is that we all need to have a little patience over the next 24 to 48 hours until Mother Nature sorts its issues out.

Tonight

We’re already seeing temperatures falling into the upper 30s north of Houston, and this downward trend will continue. Freezing temperatures will arrive in places like Katy and The Woodlands around midnight tonight, and should move into much of the rest of the metro area (barring the coast) by sunrise on Sunday. During these overnight hours cold rain will transition to freezing rain and, in some cases, sleet. There is also the potential for some thunderstorms, in which case we might get a rare thundersleet sighting, in which sleet falls during a thunderstorm. In locations where sleet falls (which is preferable to freezing rain) there will be less ice buildup on streets. In any case, when you wake up Sunday morning we’re going to see a different world.

My baseline expectation is for 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice accumulation along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. As for areas south of this, and closer to the coast, we can probably expect a trace of ice perhaps up to 0.1 inch. The bottom line is that roads will potentially be hazardous anywhere but the immediate coast. Our best advice is to plan to stay home on Sunday, and limit any travel to emergencies only. Even if you are the world’s best ice road trucker, chances are your fellow drivers are not. For good real-time information about ice on Houston’s roadways, be sure to check Houston Transtar’s road incident page.

Sunday

It will be interesting to see how high temperatures get on Sunday. Parts of the area (again, most likely locations along and south of Highway 59) will probably get above freezing for a few hours on Sunday afternoon. This, in concert with gusty northerly winds, and potentially a some patches of sunny skies, may do some work on drying out roads. But then again, maybe not. And for areas further inland I’m just not confident in ice melting at all. I mean, it could happen. But if there’s enough ice, it will take longer than an hour or two of 35 degrees to take care of it. Temperatures will plunge back below freezing by 5 or 6 pm CT on Sunday, and we’ll be in for a cold night. However, the likelihood of clouds on Sunday night may take some of the edge off of low temperatures. I expect lows to remain in the vicinity of 20 to 25 degrees in urban Houston, with areas west (i.e. Katy) and north (The Woodlands) potentially dropping into the upper teens.

Monday

We’ve had the road discussion already, but I think freeways and local streets on Monday will be a mixed bag. Coastal areas probably will be OK. Areas further inland, probably not? I’m just not sure how well, or to what extent, our regional ice treatment services will do. I could see things being passable near downtown Houston and the Texas Medical Center, but I really want to see where we are on Sunday afternoon before making a definitive call. Anyway, we start out very cold on Monday, but with sunny skies I’m hopeful that most of the region gets to highs of 35 to 40 degrees. I think this, in concert with sunshine, should do work on icy roads. But again, I’m not 100 percent confident in that. Anyway, lows on Monday night (with clear skies) could be a degree or two colder than Sunday night.

Tuesday

If you’re wondering when you can stop worrying about this deep freeze, the answer is late Tuesday morning. By then temperatures will be recovering into the 40s.

Eric, what about the next Arctic front?

Yeah, we are probably going to see another cooldown next weekend. I think there’s a decent chance of a light freeze, and although we can’t rule out a hard freeze the signal for extreme cold is not nearly so strong as it was for the current event. There is also a signal for some snow, but we’re not going to make any promises to the kids just yet.

We will have one more update today, likely late this evening, by or before 11 pm to share our latest thinking on the forecast.

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the timing for a second round of precipitation tonight, and when and where that is likely to transition over to freezing rain and sleet. Additionally, cloud cover is complicating the forecast for lows on Monday morning.

Precipitation overview

As of 6:30 am CT on Saturday we are seeing widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, moving through the region. This was entirely expected, and will drop between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain for most locations. These rains are actually rather beneficial given our region’s ongoing drought, and since temperatures today will remain above freeze there is no threat of ice from them. The main mass of these showers should exit the region to the east by around 9 am, with a few lingering showers possible later this morning and into the afternoon.

Then, later this evening, another round of showers will move in from the west, and persist sporadically overnight into Sunday morning. These will exit to the east by mid-morning on Sunday. This second round of precipitation could drop 0.5 to 1.0 inch of water. Now, the question is if and when this rain on Saturday night and Sunday morning transitions over to freezing rain.

For areas along and north of Highway 105, which includes places such as College Station, Navasota, Conroe, and other locations, this transition could occur as early as 7 pm and 10 pm on Saturday evening. A little closer to the Houston metro area, for places such as Katy and The Woodlands, this transition (should it occur) will happen a little later, perhaps between 10 pm Saturday and 2 am on Sunday. Then, after midnight, we are likely to see a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet in central areas such as Sugar Land, urban Houston, Kingwood, and so on; basically areas along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. For areas closer to the coast is is possible this line of freezing rain/sleet transition continues, or it may remain just warm enough to preclude the formation of freezing precipitation.

In any case, when you wake up on Sunday morning, you will want to pay very close attention to road surfaces. For central and northern Houston there is a reasonable likelihood of a light sheen of ice, which will make driving hazardous.

Sunday

Most of the area will start out on Sunday with temperatures around freezing, perhaps a degree or two below or above. One important question is whether air temperatures rise much. I’m starting to think the answer is probably not, because skies are now likely to remain mostly cloudy during the daytime. It is therefore possible that any ice that has accumulated on roads (which again, is likely to have occurred in many locations along and north of Highway 59, and possibly further south) will stick throughout the day. However if temperatures do rise above freezing some of this ice may melt, especially with the aid of northerly winds to dry roads. Speaking of those winds, they will represent the full surge of Arctic air moving in, likely gusting up to 25 or 30 mph on Sunday afternoon. This means it will be very cold outside, even during the daytime. Temperatures on Sunday night will be tricky, because if clouds linger it will provide some limited “insulation.” Accordingly I think low temperatures in Houston will likely fall into the 20 to 25 degrees range, with upper teens to lower 20s possible to the west (Katy and beyond) and north (Spring and Kingwood) and beyond.

Monday

Ok, so will there be ice on the roads on Monday? Will the airports be effectively shut down? Will you have to go to work or school? This is the question everyone wants answered, and I don’t have anything definitive for you (except for some schools that have already shut down). I think, for at least parts of the Houston metro area, there will be ice issues on roads. It may be regional. For example, Bush Intercontinental Airport might be iced in (such that workers cannot get there) whereas Hobby Airport has more passable roads. But honestly, we could see any scenario from very limited ice impacts (excepting elevated roads and bridges) across Houston to pretty widespread impacts on Monday morning. We probably won’t have a definitive answer on this until Sunday, when we see how much ice has accumulated, and what temperatures that afternoon do. I know, I know, that’s not particularly helpful.

We do expect the return of sunshine on Monday, which is great because it should allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the 35 to 40 degree range, helping to clear roads in most locations, hopefully even our far northern areas along Highway 105. We’ll see about that. The downside of the clearing skies is that they will bring another very cold night into the city, with temperatures likely on par with Sunday night. So a hard freeze for many, if not most locations.

The rest of next week

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week should be comfortably in the upper 40s and then early 50s for daytime temperatures. We still might see some light freezes, but nothing too concerning after this weekend’s mess. We should see a decent amount of sunshine. There is the potential for another Arctic front next weekend, but at this time I’m not sure Houston will see a direct shot of the coldest air. So I’m hopeful that we won’t see temperatures drop significantly below freezing. However, we’re not ruling anything out, including the possibility of a wintry mix remix. For now there’s way too many unknowns to say anything intelligent about such a forecast, however.

Saturday Q&A

I’m going to do another Q&A with readers on Facebook at 11 am CT today, so bring your most difficult weather questions and I’ll do my best to answer them. We will once again share the most commonly asked questions here, along with the answers, in a follow-up post.

Our next full update after this will be published around 3 pm this afternoon.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the ongoing forecast with a winter storm that is due to arrive in Houston about 36 hours from now. With this update we list some things we know, and some we don’t about the forthcoming freeze.

Overview

Good afternoon. We are about a day and a half from freezing temperatures descending into the Houston metro area. Not much has changed with our overall forecast. Area roadways should be fine through Saturday evening, but by early Sunday we have questions and concerns. At this point I’m a little more bullish on ice in the Houston metro area, so I am leaning a little more toward a disruptive event on Sunday and possibly Monday morning, especially for locations north of Interstate 10. But it is far from a done deal.

We also still have questions about how cold temperatures will get on Monday and Tuesday mornings. I would ballpark lows at about 20 degrees in urban Houston (a little cooler for inland sites such as Katy, Tomball, The Woodlands, and Kingwood) and a little warmer for locations closer to the coast, such as League City. But there is the possibility those temperatures are too low. Anyway, on to what we know, and what we don’t.

We know: If you need to make a closure decision now, err on the side of caution

I’m still not sure what Houston’s roads will look like on Sunday morning, later in the day, and on Monday morning. Following precipitation on Sunday morning, which could fall as freezing rain or cold rain, we could be anywhere from “bone dry” to “icy bridges and overpasses” to “widespread ice” by Sunday afternoon. I know this is a huge cop-out, but it’s the truth due to uncertainty about air temperatures on Sunday. Anyway, we’ve already seen decisions by the Houston Independent School District and a handful of other districts to close on Monday. This is understandable, given the uncertainty. If you can’t wait to make a closure decision, that’s prudent. If you can wait, there’s still a chance things will be mostly fine on roads.

We don’t know: What will happen with electricity?

There are two issues with getting electricity into your home. The first of these is generation. This was the killer during the February 2021 winter storm, when large chunks of the Texas power grid were taken offline due to plants shutting down. If you’re like me, you’ve been periodically checking the “supply and demand” projection from ERCOT. Everything looks more of less fine, but there does appear to be a potential supply crunch on Monday morning, around sunrise, when temperatures are at their coldest.

The other issue is distribution, with the main concern in ice accumulating on tree limbs and power lines, causing them to snap. CenterPoint Energy, which is responsible for distribution in the greater Houston area, says they are making all necessary preparations. The bottom line is that I don’t expect to see the extreme and disastrous power losses experienced during the winter storm of 2021. But that’s not to say there won’t be some disruptions in service.

We know: People are panic shopping

I’ve heard from people, and can see from social media, that y’all are raiding grocery stores for all manner of supplies. (Pro tip: Kroger appears to be less crowded than HEB). But you don’t need to stock up forever, friends. Regardless of what happens, roads will very likely be passable on Monday afternoon, and at the very worst Tuesday when we’re back up into the 40s.

We don’t know: How low will temperatures go?

Forecasting low temperatures is difficult during winter events like this. One factor is ice. If there is a lot of it covering areas north of Houston, and within the city itself, than northerly winds moving over this ice will cool down more efficiently. This will lead to colder temperatures (possibly teens) in and around Houston. However it is also plausible that much of the city only drops to about 25 degrees. Our best advice is to prepare for the colder temperatures, and hope for “warmer” conditions.

We know: Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

A decent line of thunderstorms will pass through Houston on Saturday morning, likely during the mid-morning hours. Thunderstorms will be more likely along and south of Interstate 10 and closer to the coast. These could drop 1 to 2 inches of rain pretty quickly, so keep that in mind as part of your winterization preparations. After these storms pass I expect a lull in rain (for the most part) as temperatures drop into the 40s on Saturday afternoon. A second round of showers will likely spin up early on Sunday and persist into the mid-morning hours.

We don’t know: How airports will be affected

I know, you have flight questions. I wish we had answers. Flying on Saturday should not be problematic, but it’s difficult to say the same about Sunday and possibly Monday morning. Of note, many airlines have issued waivers for change fees for today through Monday.

We know: Space City Weather does not use made up storm names

The Weather Channel, as it has done for more than a decade, has named the impending winter storm “Fern.” These names are not official, and there is no significant evidence they do anything to enhance safety. Also, “Fern” is a pretty dumb name for a storm. So we won’t be using it (just like we have never used “Uri” for the 2021 deep freeze).

Our next update will be posted by 7 am CT on Saturday. I will also be doing an additional Q&A at 11 am tomorrow on our Facebook page. Thanks for your patience as we work through a difficult forecast here.