Eric Berger

In brief: Steel thyself, for today is likely to be the hottest day of 2025 so far. But the upside of this is that the region will see about 24 hours of modestly drier air starting late this afternoon or evening. Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, a chance of rain returns Sunday and especially Monday.

Tuesday

The city of Houston recorded its hottest day of the year last Wednesday, when the mercury hit 96 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Today, in advance of a weak front, we may go a tick or two higher. This is because of a pronounced warm, southwesterly flow in the atmosphere, and front that will be compressing air as it moves toward the region. Much of the city away from the coast will push into the mid- to upper-90s, and with sticky dewpoints in the 70s it’s going to feel like August outside. This seems really, really unfair for May, doesn’t it?

Well yes, it does. Fortunately, a weak front is going to slowly slide into the area this afternoon and evening. It may bring a few brief, scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. By around sunset this evening, areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69 should see dewpoints in the 50s. Air temperatures will still be warmish, for sure, but at least humidity will drop some. It probably won’t be until after midnight, or a few hours after, before these somewhat lower dewpoints drop all the way to the coast. With the drier air, low temperatures tonight probably will fall into the upper 60s for areas inland of Interstate 10, while being a bit warmer closer to the coast.

Wednesday

Don’t blink or you’ll miss the drier air. South of I-10 dewpoints will start climbing by Wednesday afternoon, and the humidity will spread inland everywhere by Wednesday evening. With the daytime sunshine, I expect highs to still reach the mid-90s on Wednesday with light northeast winds turning southeast. Lows drop to the low- to mid- 70s overnight.

Thursday

This should be a hot and partly sunny day, with temperatures in the mid-90s. I expect to see somewhat of a disturbed atmosphere aloft, and this normally might contribute to a chance of showers. However, this upper air will have to overcome a capping inversion, and for this reason I am going to limit rain chances to about 20 percent, and that is probably only for areas south of Interstate 10. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 70s.

Friday

This should be a sunny, hot, and humid day with temperatures in the mid-90s.

Memorial Day weekend

The first third of the holiday weekend probably will see a continuation of Friday’s weather, but the forecast turns a bit more interesting later on. The combination of a weakening ridge of high pressure and a somewhat disturbed atmosphere may bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms into the region on Sunday, with better chances still on Memorial Day, perhaps 50 percent or higher Daytime highs should be cooler, perhaps in the lower 90s.

Next week

A wetter and somewhat cooler pattern should settle in next week. Probably we will see more May-like temperatures in the upper 80s, with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. We’ll see. Almost anything will be better than today’s August in May.

In brief: Houston will see temperatures spike on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that may (very) briefly provide some drier air. The rest of the week looks warm and humid, with a chance of rain returning by the weekend.

Above average temperatures

As we have been discussing, Houston has been experiencing a warm spell in the middle of May. During the last five days, the average temperature (the daily high and low, divided by two) has been 9 or 10 degrees above normal. This weather has largely been driven by a high pressure system that brought sinking air and mostly sunny skies. This high pressure system has now shifted away, but for reasons discussed below we are still going to be quite warm this week, with one especially hot day (Tuesday) in the forecast.

Monday

Highs today should peak in the low 90s, and skies that are at least partly cloudy should help keep a lid on temperatures. In addition to high humidity, we will see fairly strong southerly winds, gusting up to 30 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will be muggy, perhaps only briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city of Houston. Coastal locations, of course, will see moderately cooler days and warmer nights.

Tuesday

A cool front will approach the area on Tuesday, and this will result in compressional heating as winds turn to come from the southwest. (Effectively, the front is compressing and heating air ahead of it as it advances). How hot we get on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover during the afternoon, but much of the region has a solid chance to get into the upper 90s. One other thing to watch for is the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms with the front. I think a capping inversion will be too much for the front to overcome, but it’s something we cannot rule out.

Drier air from this front should eventually move into the area over night, possibly reaching all the way down to the coast. Most of the area could see lows in the lower 70s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

The front, to the extent it impacts our area, will be briefly lived. But it should have some impact on Wednesday’s weather, bringing mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 90s, and somewhat lower humidity. But it will be washed away quickly, with humidity climbing by Wednesday night. Expect low temperatures in the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be a pair of mostly sunny, humid days with high temperatures in the low 90s for most, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. We should see southerly winds, but gusts probably won’t get above 15 or 20 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see ongoing, mostly sunny weather with high temperatures in the low 90s. However, with only modest high pressure in place I think there is perhaps a 10 percent chance of some showers on Saturday afternoon, and 30 percent on Sunday. So that will be something to watch for.

Next week

The overall pattern for next week looks slightly cooler (highs around 90 degrees, maybe) and wetter. We sure could use some rain, and the atmospheric setup would support it. But I certainly am not going to confidently forecast rain 7 to 10 days from now after an extended dry spell. However, we can at least have some hope for change.

In brief: This post covers our official summer outlook for Houston, forecasting temperature and precipitation for June, July, and August. We think this summer will be hot, of course. But we have some hope that it won’t be exceptionally hot like 2023 and 2024.

When is summer?

Let us begin this post by defining what summer is in Houston. If we go strictly by the equinox, summer begins on June 21 and will end on September 22. Some readers may think, well, actually it feels a lot like summer outside right now. However, a person on Threads has the right of it with this sentiment:

It can feel like summer in Houston from mid-May through mid-October. However, I don’t like that definition because parts of May can still feel spring-like (here’s hoping a front makes it next week) and we also can start to have some hope for real cool fronts starting in mid-September. Therefore, we prefer the meteorological definition of summer in Houston: June, July, and August. And since we’re two weeks from June 1, let’s get to the outlook.

Temperatures

Let me tell you, the presence of a fairly persistent ridge in mid-May, and temperatures solidly in the mid-90s, does not give Matt and I the warm and fuzzies about the upcoming summer. It engenders some dread. However, perhaps all is not lost.

An often important player, El Niño or La Niña, is unlikely to be a factor this summer. We generally expect neutral conditions to persist through August. For this reason we can look at trends over the last several years, as well as statistical modeling, to get an idea of what to expect for the upcoming summer.

The last few years, especially 2023 and 2024, have seen exceptional heat in Houston. We have set all kinds of records in daytime and especially nighttime temperatures. That trend, in concert with this month’s early onset of temperatures in the mid-90s (we have set multiple high temperature records this week) is very concerning. However, when we look at the seasonal modeling, the forecast is for near-normal temperatures in June, July, and August.

So what to make of all of this? I like the solution from NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook (shown above), which predicts a likelihood of above normal temperatures this summer. However we can have some hope, I think, that this summer won’t be frying-pan hot like the last two years.

Precipitation

I’m going to throw my hands up in the air on this one. The seasonal modeling isn’t much help here (some models are very dry, and some less so). As is often the case, whether we see a drought this summer will come down to a couple of factors. The first is high pressure, if we get persistent systems that set up for weeks at a time, we can pretty quickly slip into drought conditions during the hot summer months (the region is doing mostly fine now). And secondly, will we see low pressure systems, depressions, or tropical storms and hurricanes from the Gulf? We certainly don’t want the latter two, but often times the only way to get meaningful rain in July and August is from tropical lows.

NOAA, for what its worth, is calling for near normal, to slightly above normal precipitation this summer in Houston. We shall see, I guess. The trick in Houston in the summer is to somehow get some rain, but not a ton of rain, all at once. Hard to do in August, I’m afraid.

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In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.

Heat records fall

As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:

• The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
• Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
• This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year

In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.

Thursday

If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.

Next week

The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.