Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s update discusses the increasingly busy Atlantic tropics, but also explains why the threat of a hurricane striking Texas this year is falling rapidly. We also detail a weak front moving into the region today, and how that will bring us fine, dry weather for awhile after this morning.

Hurricane season heats up, but what of Texas?

After a quiescent period in late August and for much of September, the Atlantic tropics have woken up. We have seen Hurricane Gabrielle blow up into a major hurricane (far from land), we have newly formed Tropical Storm Humberto (which could threaten Bermuda early next week as a large hurricane), and Invest 94L, which is likely to develop near the Bahamas during the next couple of days. The latter storm will be worth watching for the United States, from Florida up the East Coast, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. We will have comprehensive, ongoing coverage on The Eyewall.

But what of the Gulf, and Texas? It has been an exceptionally quiet season for the state in terms of direct impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes. And looking ahead over the next 10 days, although there may be some tropical mischief in the Bay of Campeche, it is difficult to see anything too organized forming and moving north into Texas. We have reached the time of year when it becomes incredibly rare—although to be clear, not impossible—for a hurricane to strike the state during the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore we can say, with some confidence, that the 2025 hurricane season is probably over for Texas.

So what does this mean? It means that the odds of a hurricane striking the state are now less than 1-in-50 for the remainder of the year. It means that we still might see rains or moderate winds from a tropical disturbance or storm. The tropics don’t immediately shut off. But overall, the prevailing pattern will be one that steers storms away from Texas.

Thursday

Mother Nature is presently authoring a tale of two cities right now. For northern areas of our region, drier air is already filtering in, with some locations in Montgomery County enjoying dewpoints in the 60s. For areas closer to the coast, in places such as League City and Santa Fe, there are ongoing showers as the rains work their way slowly to the southeast.

Overall the pattern today will be one in which drier air slowly moves in from the north, pushing the warmer, more humid airmass and its rains offshore. As a result most of the region should see mostly sunny skies later today, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be generally light, from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 60s for much of Houston, with cooler lows further inland, and the coast remaining in the lower 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our forecast for the weekend is one of high confidence. We will see three sunny days with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with nights falling into the upper 60s for most of Houston, with cooler conditions further inland and warmer ones closer to the coast. With dewpoints in the 50s and 60s the air will feel fairly dry, and mornings and evenings should feel especially fine. It’s not exactly fall like, but after a long hot summer, it’s going to feel great.

Next week

In all likelihood not much is going to change next week. We are going to see highs around 90 degrees, lows around 70, with slightly higher humidity levels by Wednesday or so. Overall rain chances, after this morning, appear to be quite low until at least next weekend.

In brief: In today’s post we recount the extraordinary humidity currently afflicting the region, and explain why it will soon end. Houston also faces the threat of storms and some heavy rainfall later this afternoon and this evening as a cool front moves into the area and eventually pushes off the coast.

Oh, the humidity

I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the humidity the last couple of nights has been extraordinary. This morning, just before sunrise, the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has reached a low of just 80 degrees. This is solidly 2 degrees above the previous ‘record minimum’ temperature at the site of 78 degrees, set back in 1945. The dewpoint is 79 degrees this morning, so the air is nearly saturated, and humidity is very high. It feels like deep summer out there.

As you cans see above, the region’s minimum temperatures this morning are running 8 to 12 degrees above normal for the region. So yeah, it’s pretty yuck out there. For this reason, even though today’s front is not super strong temperature wise, it will eventually bring enough drier air to make things significantly more comfortable, and our nights and evenings quite a bit more pleasant.

Wednesday

Our radar is quiet this morning, but that is likely to change as we get later into today and this evening, and a front slowly sags down into the region. Through this morning, to the extent storms develop, they probably will do so well north of the region, along and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County. But this afternoon we are likely to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in coastal counties, ahead of the front. By late this afternoon or evening, a line of storms will likely coalesce to the northwest of Houston and move toward the coast, reaching offshore by around midnight or in the wee hours of Thursday morning. These storms will be capable of producing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in spots, but I think most of the area will see less than this. Nonetheless, the threat of heavy rainfall (and possibly some damaging, straight-line winds) will be present from this evening and into Thursday morning. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower 90s, with lows tonight dropping into the lower 70s.

Thursday

Some storms may linger on Thursday morning, and for the immediate coast there remains a possibility of showers into the afternoon. But for most of the region skies should be clearing as drier air slowly moves in. Expect highs in the mid-80s with northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the 60s for most of the region away from the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This period should see sunny skies and modestly lower humidity. Daily highs will reach about 90 degrees, perhaps a degree or two lower or higher. Nights will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, cooler for inland areas and slightly warmer for the coast. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will be somewhat humid, but not oppressively so. It should be a very fine weekend for outdoor activities. Enjoy!

Next week

I don’t see too much change next week, with highs remaining in the vicinity of 90 degrees and lows in the lower 70s. Humidity may creep back up a little, but I’m confident we’re not going back to the oppressive dewpoints we are experiencing this morning.

Tropics

The tropics are heating up with two storms likely to form in Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas in the coming week. It’s a confusing forecast to puzzle out, but fortunately none of that action is likely coming into the Gulf. Stay tuned for a special announcement about the Texas hurricane season in tomorrow’s update.

In brief: Today will be hot with scattered showers, but Wednesday should be more dynamic as a line of storms pushes into the area ahead of a weak cool front. Some heavy rainfall is possible with the front, but rain totals look highly variable. After this we’ll see sunny and somewhat less humid weather.

Tuesday

It is rather warm and muggy out there, with much of the region just barely falling below 80 degrees this morning. Atmospheric conditions are trending toward better rain chances, but Wednesday still looks like the better day at this point for widespread showers. The likelihood of rain today should be about 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, with lesser chances inland. With dewpoints in the mid-70s it will be a very muggy day, as highs push into the lower 90s this afternoon. Rain chances fall back tonight, with lows again perhaps only briefly dropping to 80 degrees or below.

Wednesday

This should be the last really humid day for awhile. Showers will again be possible on Wednesday during the late morning and early afternoon hours, primarily near the coast. Later in the day a line of (broken?) showers and thunderstorms will advance from the northwest. The timing is fuzzy, but I generally expect these showers to hit the area during the late afternoon or early evening hours as a weak front advances into the area. There is a ‘marginal’ risk of severe weather, with the primary threat being thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Overall I expect much of the area to pick up between 0.5 and 3 inches of rainfall, but higher isolated totals are possible. Highs on Wednesday should reach the lower 90s ahead of the rain.

Thursday

Rain chances will linger into Thursday morning, especially closer to the coast, as the front slowly pushes offshore. Skies should be clearing during the afternoon hours, with high temperatures likely reaching the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 mph. As modestly drier air moves in, much of the region should drop into the 60s by early Friday morning.

Friday

This should be a sunny day with highs in the upper 80s and lower humidity. Lows on Friday night should again drop into the 60s for inland areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Our modestly drier air should hold on through the weekend. With sunny skies expect daytime temperatures of about 90 degrees. Lows will fall into the 60s for inland areas, with central Houston and the coast probably dropping to around 70 degrees. It won’t be fall-like, but nights and mornings should be pleasant enough.

Next week

The drier air holds on for a few days before, I think, temperatures are likely headed back into the lower 90s for a few days. After this Thursday our rain chances appear to be quite low for awhile.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are heating up, and Matt has full details over at The Eyewall. The short story is that there is nothing imminent in the Gulf of Mexico and zero threats to Texas at present. We’ll have more on this tomorrow or Thursday.

In brief: Today’s post discusses an upcoming pattern change what will bring some rain midweek, and then some modestly cooler weather through the weekend. It won’t feel like fall, precisely, but it won’t be August-like either.

Fall, finally?

It is fitting that the Autumnal equinox comes on Tuesday, when precisely at 1:19 pm CT the Sun will move directly over the equator. Why? Because some semblance of almost fall-like weather is on the way for the Houston region. The last 10 days, or so, have felt very much like late summer in the region, with a string of daily high temperatures at Houston’s official monitoring station hovering between 92 and 95 degrees.

We have a couple of more warm-ish days before a weak front arrives mid-week. This won’t bring that much cooler air—although it will bring some—but it will knock some of the humidity out of the lower atmosphere. As a result temperatures will feel a little more comfortable. We are likely to see more 90-degree days in the weeks ahead, but I don’t think we are going to see any more prolonged stretches of highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Monday and Tuesday

These days should be similar, which is to say high temperatures generally in the vicinity of 90 degrees to the lower 90s, with plenty of humidity. Skies will be mostly sunny. Areas along and south of Interstate 10 have perhaps a 40 percent chance of seeing a passing shower or thunderstorm, while areas further inland probably have a somewhat less (but non-zero) chance). Winds will be modest, from the south-southeast, and nights warm, with lows in the upper 70s. All in all, it will be pretty sticky outside.

Wednesday

A cool front will approach the area on Wednesday, and this combined with surging moisture levels in the atmosphere should produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area probably will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches through the period of Thursday morning, but the majority of this rain probably will come on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. This will be another warm and humid day before some slightly drier air begins moving in over night.

Thursday

I think we’ll see some lingering showers on Thursday morning, as it will take some time for the front to amble off the coast. By the afternoon we should see clearing skies and high in the upper 80s. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the 60s for all but areas near and along the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We still have some questions about the details for this weekend, because it’s just not clear how much oomph the front will have, but we can be confident in the big picture. Skies this weekend should be mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and modest humidity. Nights will be a bit cooler, probably in the upper 60s. Some very slight rain chances likely return to the forecast on Sunday or Sunday evening. All in all, it looks like a warm, but fine weekend.

Next week

Most of next week looks sunny, with highs around 90 degrees and nights in the lower 70s. It’s not exactly going to be summerlike in Houston, with slightly lower humidity levels, but it won’t exactly feel like fall either. For me it always feels like we’re sitting in the cold front waiting room at this time of year.