Eric Berger

In brief: Sorry to interrupt your weekend, but we wanted to update your expectations for rainfall later today and tonight. There are some indications that these showers may overperform a little bit, and that isolated locations in Houston may see 3 or more inches of rainfall.

Saturday Night Showers

Houston’s radar is quiet this morning, but beginning a little before noon we expect to see some showers and possibly thunderstorms fill in. Around noon, a few hours ahead of a frontal passage, we could see some showers develop along and south of Interstate 10 with plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere. These storms could be somewhat stationary, allowing for accumulations to build up over time.

Beginning later this afternoon a front will move down from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and these are likely to persist, on and off, into the early hours of Sunday morning. At this time I don’t expect anything too severe, but thunderstorms (i.e. lightning) and moderate to heavy rainfall are possible.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely today, with most of the region likely getting in the vicinity of 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain. However some locations, possibly near or southeast of downtown Houston, may well see higher totals of 3 inches or more. Again it is difficult to predict precise amounts or locations, but this could set up some street flooding conditions later this afternoon, evening, and during the overnight hours. These rains should move offshore early on Sunday morning, and by around sunrise for the coast.

In terms of temperatures, the region will remain in the vicinity of 80 degrees into the early afternoon, but should drop into the 70s by 3 to 6 pm CT, with continued cooling after that from the front. By Sunday morning much of the area could be as low as the lower 50s, which will feel rather chilly after the extended run of warmer than usual weather we’ve experienced. Sunday afternoon should feel pretty amazing outside with clearing skies, wind gusts dropping, and highs of around 70 degrees.

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the weekend forecast, taking an especially close look at conditions for the Ironman event on Saturday in The Woodlands. Sunday turns cooler, with a couple days of spring-like temperatures before another warming trend.

Ironman Texas outlook

We’ve had a lot of questions about the weather for the Ironman triathlon in The Woodlands on Saturday, and here’s what I can tell you. Temperatures at sunrise will be about 70 degrees, rising to the low- to mid-80s during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints will be around 70 degrees through most or all of the daytime hours, so it will feel plenty humid outside. Skies should be mostly cloudy to completely cloudy. There will be a slight chance of light showers through the early afternoon.

Sometime around 4 to 8 pm a front will approach from the northwest, bringing noticeably less humid air and cooler temperatures. At any time beginning during the mid- to late afternoon, until the wee hours on Sunday morning, there will be a healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms in the vicinity of The Woodlands. This is not guaranteed, but non-severe thunderstorms will be distinctly possibly on Saturday evening. For those who don’t know, a triathlon comprises a 2.4-mile swim, a 112-mile bicycle ride and a marathon. Good luck, everyone!

Thursday

With partly sunny skies our temperatures today are likely to be the warmest of the week, with much of the area away from the coast reaching the upper 80s. A few inland locations may even approach 90 degrees. Winds will be from the south at about 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts during the afternoon. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Another warm day, but with a few more clouds our high temperatures may top out in the mid- to upper-80s. It will still be very humid, with gusty southerly winds during the afternoon. Rain chances remain near zero.

Saturday

As noted in the Ironman section above, this will be another warm and humid day, but with cloudy skies likely limiting highs to the mid-80s. There may be a few, very light showers during the daytime. Shower chances pick up during the late afternoon, and especially Saturday night as a front moves through. I think most areas north of I-10 will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with areas along and south of the freeway, closer to the coast, are more likely to get 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain. Most of these rains are likely to come after sunset on Saturday and before sunrise on Sunday. At this time I do not expect any of these showers or thunderstorms to be severe. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the upper 50s for most locations away from the coast.

Sunday

This should be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs in the lower 70s. Some showers may linger near the coast on Sunday morning, but drier air will be steadily moving in from the north. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid- to upper-50s.

Next week

Monday will be another cool day, likely with highs in the low 70s. A chance of showers returns later on Monday with a passing disturbance, and this will persist into Tuesday. (If you’re headed to the Bruno Mars show on Tuesday, this is something to watch for. Speaking of which, it’s at RELIANT Stadium. Is anyone else happy with the reversion of the name?) With the resumption of the onshore flow on Monday we’ll see a warming trend back into the mid-80s next week.

In brief: Houston faces four more warm and humid days before a cool front swoops into the city on Saturday, likely during the evening hours, bringing a healthy chance of rain and then much cooler air. The front should hang on into the middle of next week, with highs in the 70s.

Tax us with your questions

We are planning to run another Q&A about Houston weather (and related issues) during the next several days. If you want to ask a question, the best way is to do so in our Weather Talk forum, but you can also comment below or ask on one of our social media channels. Since it’s Tax Day, we are looking forward to your taxing questions. (We are also looking forward to the end of tax season).

Wednesday

Today will be a lot like Tuesday, with partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and plenty of humid air. We remain in a pattern with a fairly robust southerly flow, allowing for surface wind gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon hours. A capping inversion should prevent most, if not all rain showers. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast.

Thursday

Conditions will be a bit warmer, as skies should be mostly sunny during the afternoon hours. Much of Houston away from the coast will likely warm into the upper 80s, although I think a majority of the area will remain below 90 degrees. Anyway, very warm for mid-April.

Friday

A day a lot like Wednesday, with partly sunny skies, highs generally in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. You know the drill.

Saturday

The front half of the weekend will see more warm and humid conditions, and I expect these to persist throughout the daytime. There could be a chance of very light showers, but nothing serious. At some point later on Saturday afternoon, or during the evening hours, a front is going to slide through the region from the north-northwest. I’m starting to think there will be a pretty healthy chance of rain with the front, and even the possibility of some heavier showers. However I don’t think these will last too long, as the front should push offshore in a relatively short order. In any case, you should be prepared for the possibility of showers on Saturday afternoon, evening, and early into Sunday. In terms of accumulations, most of the area will probably get something on the order of 0.25 (more likely closer to the coast) to 0.75 inch (further inland), with higher isolated totals, but that’s far from locked in. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the 50s as drier air begins moving in.

Sunday

This will be a mostly cloudy and cooler day, with high temperatures likely in the vicinity of 70 degrees. We’re going to see a northerly wind, gusting perhaps to 20 or 25 mph. Any rain chances should end before sunrise. I think lows on Sunday night will get into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

Monday should also be in the low 70s, with another night in the 50s. After that we’ll be on a warming trend and I expect our highs to climb back into the lower 80s. After that it’s possible another front may approach Houston next weekend, or maybe not. The crystal ball is just a little bit too fuzzy that far out.

In brief: In today’s post we look at our warm-ish start to April, and how we’re going to turbo-charge that this week before a nice front arrives this weekend. We should be back to seasonal temperatures then, but we’re still trying to read the tea leaves as to whether it will rain with the front.

Warm April nights

So far April is off to a pretty warm start, with an average temperature of 71.4 degrees, a little more than three degrees above normal. But where we have really felt this is with our nights, which are typically in the upper 50s through the first half of April. However, we’ve been mostly in the 60s and 70s. We’re not close to setting any monthly records (through the first two weeks, our average and average minimum temperatures are not in the top 10 warmest of all time). But we are going to take the warmer-than-usual temperatures we’ve seen during the first half of April and super-charge them this week before a front returns us to seasonal conditions this weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days will both be similar, with a strong southerly flow (winds gusting up to 25 mph during the afternoon) bringing warm air and temperatures into the region. Expect highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas. Although there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, a capping inversion will likely suppress any shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

I expect both of these days to see a little more sunshine, and accordingly I suspect our daily temperatures will push into the upper 80s (although probably not all the way to 90 degrees). Overnight lows remain warm and muggy, and those gusty southerly winds will continue. Rain chances, still, remain near zero with the possible exception of areas along and north of Highway 105.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring some cooler and drier air in the form of a front. But when? Right now I’m thinking Saturday evening is the most likely time. Assuming that’s the case—and to be clear, we are not locked in yet—Saturday should be another warm and fairly humid day with highs in the 80s. I do expect more clouds and a slight chance of light rain during the morning and early afternoon. At some point during the afternoon or evening a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms should drop down from the northwest along with the front. At this point I’m not seeing any signal for severe storms or heavy rainfall (a dry frontal passage is also still possible). This front should push Sunday morning’s lows down to around 60 degrees. Highs on Sunday look to be in the 70s, with lower humidity and partly (to mostly?) cloudy skies.

Next week

I think we’ll see overnight lows, possibly in the 50s, persist through Tuesday morning before we warm up again some, probably back to around highs in the lower to mid-80s by mid-week. Rain chances appear low before next weekend.