Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the rumors about a “snow bomb” hitting Houston around Valentine’s Day (you will be shocked to learn the rumors are not true). We also discuss our moderating temperatures this week, and what looks to be a splendid weekend ahead.

Gulf coast “snow bomb”

Matt and I began to receive some messages on Saturday morning about the potential for the greater Houston region to receive another Arctic blast around Valentine’s Day. The questions kept coming on Sunday, along the lines of, “rumors are circulating …” about the threat of a major snowfall in the region. We were scratching our heads because there were no valid indications of such an occurrence.

Nevertheless we did a little digging. It was pretty clear from the outset what precipitated the concerns. A single run of the GFS model, the 06z output on Saturday morning (publicly available about 5 am CT, usually) showed a ridiculous amount of snowfall across the Houston area, like two feet. It would set records. Such an event would be historic. But of course there was no real reason to believe a model output that was forecasting an event two weeks away. That is the “silly season” range of model output, and the US-based GFS model is notoriously bad with these kinds of things. And as one might expect, by the very next run, this snowfall was completely gone. Poof!

This, alone, would not have been enough to spark questions. But then my wife stumbled across this post on Facebook later on Saturday morning. Note that it contains a double dose of dumb because the “author” uses the “Houston, we have a problem” cliche.

This nonsense, therefore, came from a deadly duo in today’s day and age when it comes to weather information. First you need a single model run showing a long-range forecast more than 10 days out. Then you need a social mediarologist to spread the hype. It’s a pretty unstoppable combination. But as a consumer there are a couple of things you can do to combat this. First of all, check to see how far out the forecast is. If it’s 10 days or greater, be super wary. If it’s forecasting an extreme event, be super super wary. And if the post uses the #fblifestyle hashtag, you can have a good laugh because this is not a serious person.

Really, all you need to do is check Space City Weather. If there is a credible chance of a major winter storm in Houston, we’ll be talking about the possibility. We promise.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have bottomed out at about 40 degrees, and we are already seeing a southerly flow that will warm us up nicely this afternoon. Expect highs of about 70 degrees. We also will see increasing cloud cover as atmospheric moisture levels ramp up. As a result low temperatures tonight will only briefly drop below 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy and warm day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s along with southerly winds. We also will see a chance of light showers during the daytime. By late afternoon, and during the evening hours, a front will approach the area and we may see a line of broken showers and a few thunderstorms. These will persist until around midnight or perhaps a bit later down by the coast. Rains will probably be hit or miss, with some locations picking up a trace of rain and other areas one-half inch or more. Temperatures will start falling after midnight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fine, sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-60s and overnight lows in the low- to mid-40s. Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this weekend, you’re in lucky. We should see mostly sunny skies on Friday and Saturday, with a few clouds returning by Sunday. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s through the weekend, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. It looks positively gorgeous for any outdoor activities.

Next week

The first half of next week looks to be on the warm-ish side, with highs in the mid-70s perhaps and lows in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Some kind of front may push through by around Thursday or so, to cool things off a bit, and bring a chance of rain. The front may drop overnight lows into the 40s, or it may not have that much oomph.

So what about the snow chances for Valentine’s Day? Well, perhaps if you’re traveling to Boston for the weekend.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s brief run at normal high temperatures today, and then look at blustery (but dry) cold front arriving Thursday evening. This will lead to a cold weekend, with the chilliest temperatures coming on Sunday morning.

Briefly reaching normal highs

If you were wondering, Houston has already sailed through the typically “coldest” period of winter. This occurs from January 6 to January 14, when the average high is 63 degrees, and average low is 43 degrees. By late January we’ve already reached an average high of 65 degrees for the month.

However, you may have noticed we’ve been quite cold of late. Houston’s high temperature has not reached 65 degrees in more than a week, and after doing so today (probably) it won’t again until next Monday or Tuesday, at least. So enjoy today’s brief taste of “normal” January weather before another front arrives tonight.

Thursday

We are seeing some patchy fog again this morning, but this should dissipate fairly quickly as sunny skies prevail today. With southerly winds we are going to see temperatures warm nicely into the 65 to 70 degree range this afternoon. A cold front should push into the area this evening, likely between 8 pm and midnight. As there won’t be enough moisture aloft to support showers, I expect this to be a dry front. However its passage will be noticeable as winds will quickly pick up from the northwest, gusting up to 25 mph, or perhaps higher. Lows tonight will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday

Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy on Friday, with highs generally in the lower 50s. We’ll also have those persistent northerly winds, which will still be gusty at times. A light freeze is possible in Houston on Friday night in Houston, with temperatures likely dropping into the 30 to 33 degree range.

Saturday

A secondary surge a colder air arrives on Saturday, and accordingly this will be a very cold day. Look for sunny skies and highs in the low 40s. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday night, with lows likely in the 25 to 30 degree range in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. A hard freeze will be possible, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than what the region experienced earlier this week.

Sunday

Conditions will be a little warmer on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs in the vicinity of 50 degrees. Lows on Sunday night probably won’t freeze in Houston, but it will be close; and a light freeze will be possible further inland.

Monday

We’re going to warm back up into the 60s next week, and this time there will be time for moisture to return to the atmosphere ahead of the next front. The overall pattern is not exactly clear, but from Tuesday night through Thursday I expect a decent chance of rain, with overall accumulations perhaps somewhere on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch. Temperatures cool back down by Friday or so of next week, but at this time a freeze seems unlikely.

In brief: In this morning’s post we discuss the phenomenon of freezing fog, which parts of the region are experiencing this morning. We also talk about Houston’s brief warm-up over the next two days before another Arctic front surges in for the weekend. At least there’s no freezing precipitation this time.

Freezing fog

You’re familiar with fog. But are you familiar with freezing fog? It’s not something we have to contend with too often in Houston, but conditions are such that fog is forming this morning (light winds, dewpoints near air temperatures, etc.) Freezing fog occurs when tiny droplets of fog freeze instantly on exposed surfaces outside, including windshields and walkways. If it’s freezing at your location this morning, which it is for large areas outside of Houston’s urban core, you may notice a slight sheen of frost or ice this morning. It will be slippery so take care.

Wednesday

After a chilly start to the morning, we are going to see highs this afternoon push up into the mid-50s for most of the region. Winds, from the north, will be light. Low temperatures tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday night, but for outlying areas a light freeze (and freezing fog) will again be possible.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures reaching up to near-normal levels for late January, in the low- to mid-60s for most locations. Some clouds will build on Thursday night, but there likely won’t be enough moisture to support any precipitation as a cold front passes through after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 30s as this front moves through.

Friday

Expect a cold day with partly cloudy skies and brisk northerly winds, gusting up to 20 mph or perhaps a bit higher. High temperatures will top out at around 50 degrees. As skies clear overnight the region, away from the coast, is likely to see a light freeze. I’d expect lows of about 30 degrees in Houston and most suburbs.

Saturday

A secondary push of Arctic air will arrive on Saturday, and this will accordingly be a rather cold day despite sunny skies. Expect highs perhaps only around 40 degrees, with overnight lows falling into the 25 to 30 degree range in Houston. A hard freeze is possible along and north of a line from Katy to The Woodlands, although temperatures should be a little warmer than what we experienced during this most recent Arctic cooldown.

Sunday

Highs will rebound to around 50 degrees on Sunday, so still cold, but not as cold. I expect Houston to remain slightly above freezing on Sunday night, but a light freeze will be possible for inland areas. If you’re wondering, Sunday night appears to be the region’s last chance for a freeze until at least mid-February.

Next week

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s next week, with nights generally in the 40s. The combination of a coastal low pressure system and a cool front should bring a decent shot of rain into the area beginning Tuesday night into Thursday, details to be determined.

In brief: After our coldest weather in nearly a year this morning, the region will thaw out and warm up today with plenty of sunshine. We will then have a few milder days before another strong front arrives Thursday night. By Sunday morning we could see temperatures nearly as cold as this morning, although we have no wintry precipitation concerns with this round.

Cold status

We are at the tail end of impacts from this past weekend’s Arctic front, but paradoxically we are also seeing the coldest temperatures of the event, ranging from 18 degrees in Conroe to the low- to mid-20s across much of the Houston region. We’ve waited this long for the coldest air because skies finally cleared last night, and winds died down to nearly zero. This created ideal conditions for cooling temperatures. However we also will see a fairly quick rebound in conditions today, with sunny skies leading to highs of around 50 degrees.

Tuesday

We are going to see calm winds all day, to go along with our sunny skies. Accordingly conditions will feel quite a bit warmer this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop to around freezing in the metro area, probably just at or above 32 degrees along and south of Interstate 10, and a degree or two below inland of the freeway. Regardless, after mid-morning today, the threat of a hard freeze will have passed for a few days.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be warmer days. Wednesday should be mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s and light winds. Wednesday night will be cold, in the 30s, but likely above freezing. Thursday will see highs all the way in the low- to mid-60s, but with building cloud cover. However by Thursday evening or early Friday another strong front will surge into the area. You’ll notice this with gusty northerly winds. Fortunately this looks like a dry frontal passage, so we don’t have many concerns about a wintry mix. Even if there are a few passing showers, temperatures will be warm enough to preclude a freezing mix. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks mostly sunny and cold. Highs on Friday will probably reach about 50 degrees, but Saturday will be colder, perhaps only in the low 40s as cold air continues to advect into the area. Sunday may be slightly warmer. So what about nighttime temperatures? Friday and Saturday night look to be the coldest. There’s the potential for a hard freeze on Saturday night, when we once again see ideal cooling conditions. Right now I would predict lows between 25 and 30 degrees in urban Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas. But we will see.

Next week

Monday should also be clear and chilly, but after this a warmer and wetter pattern will take hold. I expect highs in the 60s next week, with a healthy chance of rain showers from later on Tuesday through Thursday. Details are to be determined, but additional rain to help with the region’s drought would not be unwelcome.