Eric Berger

In brief: With today’s update we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for Friday in the Houston area. This means mostly minor impacts, but we cannot rule out some street flooding. The weekend looks much cooler, with sunny skies and generally very pleasant weather.

Stage 1 flood alert

We are not expecting widespread flooding issues on Friday, but there is clearly the potential for heavy rainfall across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, the most likely period will be from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening. There is the potential for impacts both during the morning and evening commute on Friday, not to mention school pickups and after-school activities. Most of Houston should pick up 1 to 3 inches over the course of the 24-hour period, which is totally manageable. However there are likely to be spots that pick up more than this, with the potential for isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches. For this reason we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for all of Friday. We expect rainfall potential to fall off quickly by Friday night, midnight. Saturday looks fine, with clearing skies.

Thursday

Houston reached 88 degrees on Wednesday, but I believe we’re done with the very warm weather for now. Skies today will be mostly cloudy and this should help limit high temperatures for most locations in the mid-80s. An initial push of slightly drier air should arrive this afternoon, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall into the 60. In terms of rainfall, we will see the potential for scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms today and into this early evening. However, there won’t be anything too special about this activity. We’ll start to see increasing chances for rainfall after sunset on Thursday and into the overnight hours.

Friday

The much discussed cold front will essentially stall over the Houston metro area on Friday, and this will serve as a focus for showers and heavy rainfall. (There is a very slight chance for severe weather, such as damaging winds and hail). There remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest band of rainfall will set up, it could be along the Highway 59/I-69 corridor, or a little north or south. But we do feel like somewhere is going to see 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible. Generally we expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches. This potential for rainfall will persist into the evening Friday before the front finally pushes off the coast.

In terms of temperatures, I expect everyone to be in the 60s on Friday morning, with inland areas remaining there while coastal areas may warm into the mid-70s. By early Saturday the entire area will be in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although some clouds may linger on Saturday morning, we now pretty much expect wall-to-wall sunshine for the weekend. Saturday’s highs may peak around 70 degrees, whereas Sunday reaches the mid-70s. Friday night and much of Saturday will be quite breezy, with southerly gusts reaching 25 or even 30 mph (especially along the coast). These winds should die down by Saturday afternoon or evening, so Sunday looks placid in this regard. Lows on Saturday night should again drop into the 50s, with the potential for upper 40s for far inland areas. Both Saturday and Sunday will enjoy low humidity. This is a really nice cold blast for early May, so enjoy it before summer arrives!

Next week

We’ll warm back up to the mid-80s by the middle of next week before a weaker front may push into the region and bring some rain chances and slightly cooler conditions. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston faces one more ‘hot’ day before temperatures begin to moderate. There is a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, but we are highly confident in widespread showers on Friday. The weekend looks considerably colder.

The 90s are back

Houston officially hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday, reaching the mark shortly after noon at Bush Intercontinental Airport. As we noted on Monday, this is only a few days earlier than normal for such a temperature, so it’s not anything to be too concerned about. However, it still felt pretty warm, and served notice for the fact that we are only about a month from the start of June. We know it is not yet June because a fairly strong cool front will arrive on Friday, driving our low temperatures back into the 50s.

By the way, if you missed our Q&A yesterday, there were a lot of good questions, and Matt and I put a lot of effort into providing some answers. Be sure and check it out!

Wednesday

It is really warm and muggy this morning, with lows generally in the mid-70s. Overall conditions today should be similar to Tuesday in terms of heat and humidity, with highs likely reaching about 90 degrees in Houston and points north, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast. The question is the potential for storms as a weak front sags into the region.

Generally, I think chances are best for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather along and north of Highway 105, so for locations such as College Station, Huntsville, and Livingston. Even for these areas the overall chance is fairly low, but it is something to watch out for. Later this afternoon it is possible that storms move further south, into the city of Houston itself. This is a low-probability, high-risk scenario in that it is unlikely to happen, but if storms do break out later today they could be severe.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday

This will be a mostly cloudy day with highs generally in the mid-80s. Humidity will still be pretty high. There is perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. As slightly cooler air drifts in, overnight lows may drop into the 60s.

Friday

This is the prime day for showers as a front moves into the region. Let’s start with temperatures. For areas north of Houston, highs may top out at around 60 degrees behind the front, whereas areas along and south of Interstate 10 may reach the upper 70s before cooler temperatures arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s by early Saturday area wide, so that will be a big change.

And what of rain? Basically from the wee hours of Friday morning through Friday evening there will be a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. We cannot rule out severe weather like hail and damaging winds, but the biggest threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 3 inches, from Huntsville all the way to Galveston Island. For a lot of Houston this will be a helpful dousing of rainfall with summer right around the corner. But I’m concerned about the potential for street flooding. Matt and I will assess the need for a Stage 1 flood alert as some locations will almost certainly see higher amounts.

If you have outdoor events planned for Friday or Friday evening you absolutely need a backup plan because we are highly confident in widespread rain showers.

Saturday

The rains should clear out on Friday night, leaving us with breezy and cooler conditions on Saturday morning. Some locations, particularly near the coast, may see gusts up to 30 mph later on Friday night and through Saturday morning. These winds should back off a little, with clearing skies as temperatures warm to the lower 70s on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with some inland areas reaching the upper 40s. As noted above, this front will pack a nice punch for late spring.

Sunday

This will be a splendid day, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and highs in the 70s. Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night as the onshore flow begins to return.

Next week

Most of next week should be warmer, in the 80s, with returning humidity. A weak front later next week may bring some showers by Thursday or Friday.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss storm and rain chances this week ahead of a robust front on Friday evening that will bring much cooler weather for this weekend. Sunday still looks spectacular.

Big picture

Houston will experience steadily increasing rain chances this week through Friday before a cold front pushes through and cools us down significantly for the weekend. The real questions for this week are the extent to which a capping inversion holds up (What is a cap? See our April Q&A post, which also published this morning) and how far fronts progress before Friday night.

Anyway, although storms are somewhat unlikely today, they’re possible, and chances are a little higher on Wednesday. So be prepared for inclement weather (i.e. damaging winds, hail) even if it is fairly unlikely. Our best chance of rain will come on Friday, when a front advances toward, and then moves through Houston. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain this week, with some areas north of Interstate 10 likely seeing more.

Tuesday

Today will be another warm and humid day, but how warm temperatures get will depend on the extent of sunshine this afternoon at your location. I believe most of us will probably get to at least partly sunny skies, if not more. This will allow high temperatures for inland areas to reach around 90 degrees, or perhaps even the low 90s, whereas coastal areas stall in the low- to mid-80s. Anyway, it will be plenty humid. I don’t think Houston will see much in the way of storms or precipitation, but they’re possible along and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

On Wednesday a front will approach the area, but is likely to stall north of the city. In any case, this will help disturb the atmosphere and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Houston, as well as some severe weather. The odds of this occurring are not super high, but there is probably a 20 percent chance of damaging winds, hail, and/or heavy rainfall during the daytime hours. Otherwise it will be another hot and humid day.

Thursday

This looks to be a mostly cloudy day with highs perhaps reaching only the mid-80s. Rain chances are probably in the 30 to 40 percent range, but the likelihood of severe weather is lower. Thursday night will see lows drop to around 70 degrees, probably.

Friday

This is still the day when we expect the most widespread showers and thunderstorms. The likelihood of severe weather looks fairly low, but heavy rainfall is possible. For most of us these showers, which are most likely during the daytime on Friday and into the evening hours, should be manageable. High temperatures on Friday may reach about 80 degrees, but the arrival of the front (likely during the late afternoon or evening) should cool things down overnight.

Saturday

There is a lingering chance of rain on Saturday morning, but I am hopeful that showers will end before the weekend really gets going. That’s another way of saying, if you have outdoor activities planned for Saturday don’t not abandon hope yet. Saturday will start out cloudy and breezy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph. By the afternoon hours, however, we could start to see some clearing of skies. Lows on Saturday night look chilly, possibly dropping into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. We shall see.

Sunday

This still looks like a splendid day, with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and low humidity. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the 50s again.

Next week

Most of next week should see temperatures in the lower 80s, or thereabouts. I don’t think we’ll get as hot or as humid as we’ve been this week. Some rain chances may return during the second half of the week.

In brief: Houston is about to experience its warmest weather of the last six months, but at least there’s an expiration date. Widespread showers on Friday and/or Saturday will usher in a cool front that will bring cooler and drier air. Sunday, at this point, looks especially nice.

The 90s? Great decade. April temperatures, not so much.

As a member of Generation X, I’m firmly of the belief that the 1990s were the best decade. We balanced the budget, won the Cold War, had some great Thursday night television, and the internet was in its youth—a place of wonder before smart phones and social media. However that does not mean I’m a fan of 90-degree days in April.

Houston got close on Saturday, with a mark of 89 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Sunday was a shade cooler. If not today, then Tuesday or Wednesday is virtually certain to hit 90 degrees. If we look at data over the last 60 years (when the city’s official meteorological station has been located at Intercontinental Airport) Houston has recorded its first annual 90-degree day as early as February and as late as June. The average first 90-degree day has been May 2 (this coming Saturday).

So we are not particularly early with temperatures in the 90s this year. And the good news is that we really do have a nice-looking cool front on the way for this weekend. So although summer is indeed coming, it is not here yet to stay.

Monday

We are starting out this morning very warm, in the mid- to upper 70s, and muggy. Skies are mostly cloudy but by mid-morning we should start to clear out. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid-80s near the coast to around 90 degrees for inland areas. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Rain chances are near zero, but if a capping inversion breaks we could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms later today. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be the warmest days of the week, with inland areas possibly seeing highs in the lower 90s. Tuesday should be the sunnier of the two days, with a few more clouds on Wednesday. Humidity levels remain very high. Both days, again, will carry a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances are probably only 10 percent each day. These will be our region’s warmest days in half a year.

Thursday

A weak front will approach the area on Wednesday evening, and this may lead to some slightly cooler weather, perhaps bringing highs down to the mid-80s. We are going to see some much better rain chances to end the work week, but it’s not clear to me that we’ll see much more than a smattering of showers on Thursday. We’ll see. Overnight lows should drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

By Friday an increasingly disturbed atmosphere should lead to widespread showers, maybe during the daytime or maybe not until later in the afternoon or evening with a frontal passage. Overall the setup does not look super favorable for severe weather, but it’s too early to make that determination. What does seem likely is widespread showers starting some time on Friday and lasting well into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s, with highs on Saturday perhaps not pushing out of the upper 60s. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the 50s as rains end.

Sunday

At this point, with the knowledge that things could change, Sunday looks like it could be a really fine day. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny, with mild temperatures in the 70s, low humidity, and light winds. It’s an early candidate for one of the 10 nicest days of the year. We’ll see. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 50s again for most of Houston.

Next week

Houston should start out in the 70s next week before returning to the mid-80s. I don’t think we’re going to get back to the 90s, but we shall see!