Eric Berger

In brief: After stunning weather across Houston this weekend, we return abruptly to reality this week with rising humidity levels and warmer weather. Beginning on Wednesday we’ll also see rising rain chances that may linger into next weekend.

Peak weather

This weekend’s weather was not perfect for everyone, or every activity. For a beach day, you might want it a little warmer. For long-duration running, maybe you’d want things a little colder. But for being outside, for working in the yard, taking a walk, or watching the sunset—this weekend was perfect. We had clear skies, low humidity, cool mornings and pleasant days, and after Saturday morning modest winds. With these four conditions, Houston hit the quadfecta. Not only that, the weekend came after some super helpful rainfall that knocked most of the region out of a months-long drought. It felt good.

I am confident in saying this will be Houston’s nicest weekend for at least the next five months, and probably longer. Given that both Saturday and Sunday had exceptional weather, it was probably was the nicest wall-to-wall weekend we will have all year. I hope you found some time to spend outside.

Monday

We are going to have one more sunny day before our skies turn mostly cloudy for awhile. Winds have already shifted to come from the southeast, and this morning’s light breeze will pick up this afternoon to come from the southeast, gusting up to 25 mph. Expect sunny skies with a high temperature of around 80 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer. Humidity will steadily rise throughout the day and accordingly our lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

A warmer and more humid day with high temperatures generally in the mid-80s. Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy. The onshore flow will become even a little stronger, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. As a result of this flow the moisture levels in our atmosphere will increase, but I think any rain showers will hold off until at least Tuesday night or Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will only fall into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

A cool front will approach the area from the north, and if you read ‘Tuesday’ section of today’s post you’ll know that with all the southerly winds we’ve been pumping up the available moisture for showers and thunderstorms. The front will disturb the atmosphere enough such that there is a low-end chance for some severe weather later on Wednesday, especially for areas north of Interstate 10. So there’s the possibility of some showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then the front itself will probably sag into the region Wednesday night. Bottom line: there’s a fair bit of uncertainty in rain amounts and temperatures. For now I’ll predict highs in the mid-80s on Wednesday, with overnight lows dropping to around 70.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather to end the week is going to depend where you live (i.e. further from the coast, a better chance of lower temperatures and slightly lower humidity). Basically I would expect highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees and lows in the 60s. Both of these days will also have a heathy chance of rain, perhaps 50 percent each day. Overall accumulations through Friday will probably be on the order of 1 inch for most of us, but there will be some wide variations. Anyway, if you have outdoor plans from Wednesday through Friday some caution is advised, as a lot of questions remain.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances are not going away this weekend, but whether they’re 20 percent for both days, or 50 percent, I just cannot say with this unsettled pattern. I think we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will likely be in the vicinity of the low-80s with lows in the 60s or perhaps lower 70s. Stay tuned for a better weekend forecast, because we’re just not there yet.

Next week

It’s possible that another weak front arrives early next week, and this should help keep our temperatures in the lower 80s, with maybe a cooler night or two. Daily rain chances do start to look lower after next Monday or so with the potential for more sunshine. We’ll see!

In brief: The current storms across the region are behaving more or less as expected, and much of the Houston region is getting a good soaking with no major problems. We see one more wave of storms this afternoon before the front moves offshore.

Houston weather status: It’s raining. And it will continue to do so for several more hours.

We have seen a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms today, with a pulsing up of intensity followed by a break. This has brought some healthy rain totals, with up to 4 inches over the last 24 hours northwest of Houston, near locations such as Cypress. Most other areas have picked up 1 to 3 inches. Pretty much all of the region’s major bayous and waterways remain within banks, so the issue has primarily been one of brief street flooding.

Based upon radar trends and our most recent high-resolution modeling, it appears likely that one final wave will push through the metro area between 3 and 5 pm, from west to east. This could bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for some locations, and we cannot rule out some severe impacts such as damaging winds and possibly hail. As this wave should cross our region during the evening commute, please take a little extra care. After this, from approximately 5 to 9 pm, we likely will see some additional light to moderate showers before the mess moves off to our east.

That will be the end of the rain, but it will be replaced by gusty winds from the north-northeast, up to 30 mph in Houston, and perhaps a bit higher along the coast. These gusts should start to subside on Saturday morning, before dying off during the afternoon hours. The weekend still looks splendid and sunny, with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons in the 70s. Enjoy!

In brief: With today’s update we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for Friday in the Houston area. This means mostly minor impacts, but we cannot rule out some street flooding. The weekend looks much cooler, with sunny skies and generally very pleasant weather.

Stage 1 flood alert

We are not expecting widespread flooding issues on Friday, but there is clearly the potential for heavy rainfall across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, the most likely period will be from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening. There is the potential for impacts both during the morning and evening commute on Friday, not to mention school pickups and after-school activities. Most of Houston should pick up 1 to 3 inches over the course of the 24-hour period, which is totally manageable. However there are likely to be spots that pick up more than this, with the potential for isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches. For this reason we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for all of Friday. We expect rainfall potential to fall off quickly by Friday night, midnight. Saturday looks fine, with clearing skies.

Thursday

Houston reached 88 degrees on Wednesday, but I believe we’re done with the very warm weather for now. Skies today will be mostly cloudy and this should help limit high temperatures for most locations in the mid-80s. An initial push of slightly drier air should arrive this afternoon, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall into the 60. In terms of rainfall, we will see the potential for scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms today and into this early evening. However, there won’t be anything too special about this activity. We’ll start to see increasing chances for rainfall after sunset on Thursday and into the overnight hours.

Friday

The much discussed cold front will essentially stall over the Houston metro area on Friday, and this will serve as a focus for showers and heavy rainfall. (There is a very slight chance for severe weather, such as damaging winds and hail). There remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest band of rainfall will set up, it could be along the Highway 59/I-69 corridor, or a little north or south. But we do feel like somewhere is going to see 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible. Generally we expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches. This potential for rainfall will persist into the evening Friday before the front finally pushes off the coast.

In terms of temperatures, I expect everyone to be in the 60s on Friday morning, with inland areas remaining there while coastal areas may warm into the mid-70s. By early Saturday the entire area will be in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although some clouds may linger on Saturday morning, we now pretty much expect wall-to-wall sunshine for the weekend. Saturday’s highs may peak around 70 degrees, whereas Sunday reaches the mid-70s. Friday night and much of Saturday will be quite breezy, with southerly gusts reaching 25 or even 30 mph (especially along the coast). These winds should die down by Saturday afternoon or evening, so Sunday looks placid in this regard. Lows on Saturday night should again drop into the 50s, with the potential for upper 40s for far inland areas. Both Saturday and Sunday will enjoy low humidity. This is a really nice cold blast for early May, so enjoy it before summer arrives!

Next week

We’ll warm back up to the mid-80s by the middle of next week before a weaker front may push into the region and bring some rain chances and slightly cooler conditions. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston faces one more ‘hot’ day before temperatures begin to moderate. There is a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, but we are highly confident in widespread showers on Friday. The weekend looks considerably colder.

The 90s are back

Houston officially hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday, reaching the mark shortly after noon at Bush Intercontinental Airport. As we noted on Monday, this is only a few days earlier than normal for such a temperature, so it’s not anything to be too concerned about. However, it still felt pretty warm, and served notice for the fact that we are only about a month from the start of June. We know it is not yet June because a fairly strong cool front will arrive on Friday, driving our low temperatures back into the 50s.

By the way, if you missed our Q&A yesterday, there were a lot of good questions, and Matt and I put a lot of effort into providing some answers. Be sure and check it out!

Wednesday

It is really warm and muggy this morning, with lows generally in the mid-70s. Overall conditions today should be similar to Tuesday in terms of heat and humidity, with highs likely reaching about 90 degrees in Houston and points north, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast. The question is the potential for storms as a weak front sags into the region.

Generally, I think chances are best for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather along and north of Highway 105, so for locations such as College Station, Huntsville, and Livingston. Even for these areas the overall chance is fairly low, but it is something to watch out for. Later this afternoon it is possible that storms move further south, into the city of Houston itself. This is a low-probability, high-risk scenario in that it is unlikely to happen, but if storms do break out later today they could be severe.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday

This will be a mostly cloudy day with highs generally in the mid-80s. Humidity will still be pretty high. There is perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. As slightly cooler air drifts in, overnight lows may drop into the 60s.

Friday

This is the prime day for showers as a front moves into the region. Let’s start with temperatures. For areas north of Houston, highs may top out at around 60 degrees behind the front, whereas areas along and south of Interstate 10 may reach the upper 70s before cooler temperatures arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s by early Saturday area wide, so that will be a big change.

And what of rain? Basically from the wee hours of Friday morning through Friday evening there will be a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. We cannot rule out severe weather like hail and damaging winds, but the biggest threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 3 inches, from Huntsville all the way to Galveston Island. For a lot of Houston this will be a helpful dousing of rainfall with summer right around the corner. But I’m concerned about the potential for street flooding. Matt and I will assess the need for a Stage 1 flood alert as some locations will almost certainly see higher amounts.

If you have outdoor events planned for Friday or Friday evening you absolutely need a backup plan because we are highly confident in widespread rain showers.

Saturday

The rains should clear out on Friday night, leaving us with breezy and cooler conditions on Saturday morning. Some locations, particularly near the coast, may see gusts up to 30 mph later on Friday night and through Saturday morning. These winds should back off a little, with clearing skies as temperatures warm to the lower 70s on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with some inland areas reaching the upper 40s. As noted above, this front will pack a nice punch for late spring.

Sunday

This will be a splendid day, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and highs in the 70s. Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night as the onshore flow begins to return.

Next week

Most of next week should be warmer, in the 80s, with returning humidity. A weak front later next week may bring some showers by Thursday or Friday.