Eric Berger

In brief: A lot to get to today, including some notes on hurricane season and Houston’s chilliest day in nearly 10 months. We are going to briefly warm up before another front brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures on Thursday. Fortunately the weather for this weekend still looks exceptional.

Some news and notes to begin

End of season: First of all, we neglected to mention yesterday that the Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Sunday, Nov. 30. It did. Truth be told this date is pretty meaningless for Texas since activity really dies off in October in the northwestern Gulf and usually, as we did this year, we can call the ‘end’ of the Texas hurricane season in late September. It was a very quiet season for the Gulf, largely due to a weaker Bermuda High allowing storms to turn into the open Atlantic Ocean. Alas that was not the case with Melissa, a major hurricane that brought devastation to Jamaica at the end of October.

Very cold day: Monday’s high temperature was just 47 degrees. That was our coldest daily maximum temperature since February 22, when the high topped out at 44 degrees. I guess it’s only fitting because winter began on December 1. Or did it? One of the eternal debates is when winter begins. Is it Dec. 1? Is it the winter solstice later in the month? For us, here, we go with the ‘meteorological’ start of winter on the first day of December. And this year Mother Nature delivered.

No more asking for support: Our 2025 fundraiser ended on Monday night. And I just want to express my appreciation to everyone a final time for the tremendous response. Once again, our readers answered the call in a major way. Y’all took care of us, and we are going to take great care of your weather needs for the next year.

Tuesday

We are starting the morning out quite chilly. As expected our region has remained above freezing, with even areas well to the north of Houston such as Huntsville, Navasota, and College Station holding in the mid-30s. Most of the rest of Houston is in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will rise into the mid-50s today, with mostly sunny skies helping to nudge temperatures upward. (This will be our last unbroken sunshine until the weekend). Winds will still be from the north, gusting up to 20 mph this morning before dying down this afternoon. We’re going to have one more cold night, with temperatures probably 1-3 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

The onshore flow will be in full swing by Wednesday morning, and this is going to rapidly push temperatures to around 70 degrees, with rising humidity. We will see building clouds during the daytime, but I expect rain chances to mostly hold off until Wednesday evening or overnight. Lows drop to around 60 degrees in Houston. We will see widespread showers on Wednesday night and Thursday, as a front approaches and pushes into the region. Some of these will be moderate to heavy, and I think most of our region will pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rain through Friday. The best chance of rain will come on Thursday, however. As the front moves in highs will top out at around 60 degrees on Thursday.

Friday

We may see some lingering, mostly light showers on Friday. Cloudy skies will keep highs in the 50s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s, probably, on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks very fine. Expect highs in the mid-60s on Saturday, and perhaps 70 degrees on Sunday. Nights will be on the chilly side, likely in the upper 40s although it’s too early to be sure. The best part? You can expect mostly sunny skies for the most part. It will be a great weekend for holiday related activities.

Next week

Overall next week looks to be fairly mild, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and lows around 50 degrees. Rain chances appear to be low for the most part.

In brief: The word for today is dreary, as we are going to see a wet and cold day in Houston. Sunshine briefly returns on Tuesday before a rainy end to the work week. Some areas, all told, may pick up 4 or more inches of rain through Friday. Also, our annual fundraiser ends later today!

Fundraiser ends today

Our annual fundraiser ends tonight. Believe me, it is not comfortable for Matt and I to ask for money like this, but your support is essential to maintaining and growing what we’re doing here at Space City Weather. And this year so many wonderful readers have stepped up to chip in with donations or purchases—thousands of you. Personally I am grateful for every one, and it makes the effort we put in every single day worthwhile. So thank you, Houston, for your generosity. We go onward, as ever, into the storm!

Flipping the switch on rain

In Sunday’s post I noted that our overall weather pattern had seemingly flipped the script, over night, from an exceedingly dry one to widespread rainfall. Indeed it is possible that, starting with yesterday’s rains, our region will receive more total rainfall this week than it did during the previous 90 days. We have another round of widespread showers today, and then again from Wednesday afternoon through Friday. This should nicely dent our burgeoning drought. And if you’re already tired of the gray and rainy weather, it does appear that by the coming weekend we’ll see a stretch of sunnier weather.

Monday

I have but one regret this morning, and that is that today is December 1. Every year, in November, I look forward to using the phrase “cold November rain.” However, last month it was never simultaneously cold and rainy. Today definitely fits the bill, except for the month. Anyway, today we’re going to see cold rain, especially for Harris County and points south.

Pre-sunrise we are already seeing light to moderate showers across much of the region, with additional showers building to the southwest as a disturbance propagates into the area. One question you may ask is, where is the moisture coming from if winds at the surface are cold and dry from the north? Well, not too far above the surface the flow is more southerly, allowing for an onshore flow overrunning the air at the surface. Thus there is plentiful moisture at about one-half mile and above, where clouds are forming. Although rain totals will vary widely today, you can probably expect somewhere between 0.5 and 2.5 inches. The showers should finally clear to the northeast by late this afternoon or evening.

The other major story of the day is going to be the cold air. Some parts of Houston may not get out of the upper 40s today. Our low temperatures tonight will be dependent upon whether we see clearing skies by the wee hours of Tuesday. Regardless, fairly gusty winds from the north will provide less than ideal cooling conditions. As a result I think even the inland portions of our region will escape a freeze, but for some locations in northern Montgomery County it may be close.

Tuesday

If you’re a sunshine person, today’s the day. Expect mostly sunny skies and no rain on Tuesday. Even so an ongoing, chilly flow from the north will keep highs confined to the mid-50s. Skies turn partly cloudy on Tuesday night, which should see lows near where they were Monday night, but perhaps a degree or two warmer. So another quite cold night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our next weather system arrives later on Wednesday, and this will set the stage for another rainy period from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Highs on Wednesday may reach the upper 60s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The day should be mostly rain free, at least until the afternoon or evening. However, after this we should see plenty of rain showers from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It won’t be wall to wall storms, but we can expect accumulations of perhaps 1 to 3 inches area wide, with greater totals near the coast. I don’t think this will be enough to cause flooding conditions. We’ll watch things closely, however. A colder air mass will slowly sag into the region such that, by Friday, highs may only reach 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The upside of the rain this week is that, by the weekend, conditions should be a fair bit nicer. For now I expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend things should be pretty nice! I expect the mostly sunny skies and low rain chances to persist at least into the middle of next week.

In brief: We’re posting on Sunday because of the significant (and mostly welcome) overnight rains, which have ushered in a much colder air mass. This marks a big change from the fall weather which has come before. In short, winter has come to Houston a day early.

End of fall pattern change

Pretty much everyone reading this probably realizes that Houston has had a warm and dry fall. Our daily maximum temperatures have regularly flirted with record highs, and due to a paucity of rain the region has slipped into a moderate-to-severe drought after remaining drought free during the summer months.

For the months of September, October, and November our high temperatures have run, on average, 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the Houston region, and indeed across much of Texas. Here’s what that looks like graphically:

The story is much the same for precipitation this fall. Most of the eastern part of Texas has received just 25 to 50 percent of normal levels of rainfall. Where I live the grass has turned crispy and brown, and before Saturday night I had not seen any precipitation in nearly five weeks. This has been the driest fall I can recall, having lived here for nearly three decades.

All of this makes Saturday night’s front so significant. Without too much in the way of severe weather it brought a solid 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to most of the metro area (Katy and western areas, excepted). This is the first time in many weeks that a storm system has over-performed model expectations for precipitation. All of this points to a pattern change, and indeed that is what the near-term forecast holds.

The first half of this week is going to be really cold by early December standards, and we are going to see ongoing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Sunday

As of shortly after sunrise, temperatures for much of Houston are in the mid-50s, and they’re likely to only fall from here. Some additional very light showers are possible today, but for the most part I expect skies to just be gray. Winds will be gusty, from the north up to 25 mph. So very chilly out. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most of the metro area.

Monday

Rains are back on the menu for Monday. Around day break we should see a system move in from the southwest. Rain chances and accumulations will likely be highest for coastal counties, to the south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69. I think 1-2 inches will be the upper limit for coastal areas, with inland locations seeing significantly less. In terms of temperatures, it’s going to be cold. I expect highs to peak in the low to mid-50s. Expect another chilly night in the 40s in Houston as rains end.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny and cold day, with highs in the upper 50s. With partly clear skies we should see ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with temperatures in the 30s north of Houston. I think the greater Houston region escapes a freeze.

The rest of the week

Highs will warm into the 60s on Wednesday with some clouds. Another storm system arrives later in the week, likely on Thursday, bringing elevated rain chances to end the work week. Chillier temperatures could return by Friday or Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser ends Monday night. We’ll not mention it again for another year after that! But until then there is still time to support our efforts by purchasing merchandise or making a donation. A very warm thank you to everyone who has contributed so far.

In brief: In today’s post we look ahead to resplendent weather for the holiday, to be followed by brief warm-up this weekend before widespread showers and couple of shots of colder air. Parts of Houston may hit the 30s later next week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good morning, everyone. Just a relatively short post this morning due to the holiday—the Berger household has been up since 5:30 am working on smoking turkeys—but I wanted to share the latest on a fairly dynamic forecast. Fortunately we’re not looking at any serious storms, but there is a healthy chance of rain this weekend, and then conditions turn quite a bit colder next weekend. So with this post we are going to hit the high notes.

Thanksgiving Day

As we’ve been saying for awhile now, weather today will be ideal for the holiday. This morning’s low temperature of 48 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was bang-on for the normal temperature for this time of year and today’s highs in the mid- to upper-60s will be typical for this time in November (normal high, 69 degrees). When you add in sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds, we have just exceptionally fine weather for a holiday. Lows tonight will probably be a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday night. Think low-40s north of Houston, and upper 40s in Houston and further south.

Friday

This will be a transition day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will shift to come from the east-southeast, gusting up to 20 mph, or perhaps a bit higher. Lows Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see rising temperatures, into the mid-70s, along with much more humid air. I think Saturday morning will be mostly rain-free, with only some light showers as an exception. However, later in the day rain chances increase with the advance of a cold front. The best chances will occur later on Saturday evening and overnight when the front pushes through. I’m hesitant to predict accumulations, but at this time I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall, but given the overall dryness of our soils I’m not too concerned about flooding.

Sunday

This will be a chilly day, with leaden skies. Highs probably will not rise out of the upper 50s. Some rain chances will linger, but for the most part I just expect gray skies. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Next week

Monday should bring another shot of rainfall as what looks to be a reinforcing front moves in. As a result the first day of December looks to be a dreary affair, with highs perhaps topping out in the low 50s. We’ll see our lowest temperatures next week, possibly in the 30s for parts of Houston, on Tuesday, Wednesday, and/or Thursday mornings. At this point most of our available evidence points toward temperatures remaining above freezing in the metro area, but we’re going to keep an eye on things.

Have a great holiday, everyone!

Fundraiser

We have come to the final days of our annual fundraiser, but the curtain has not dropped yet. There is still time to support our efforts for the coming year, and you can do so by purchasing merchandise or making a donation here. Thank you so very, very much.