Eric Berger

In brief: It is chilly across Houston this morning, with some outlying areas falling all the way into the upper 30s. Most of us are in the lower 40s. This is as cold we are going to get for awhile, and in fact a rather swift warm-up will begin 24 hours from now. We’ll then be unseasonably warm through the Christmas holiday.

A brief reminder that it’s winter

It is fairly chilly out there this morning. Some locations in Montgomery County, including the usual spots like Conroe, have fallen into the 30s and may be experiencing some frost. Most of the rest of the Houston metro area is in the 40s. Our weather is clear, and cool, and just about normal for this time of year when our days are the shortest.

If you like winter (and I know many of you do not), make sure to spend a little time outside today. Because when you look at a forecast for the days ahead it is kind of wild. We are briefly cold, and then it’s at least a solid week of rather balmy weather, with highs near record maximum temperatures. I’d love to tell you it won’t be humid, but with dewpoints solidly in the mid-60s, it will be. And we are going to be prone to early morning fog, which I don’t think anyone likes. (If you do, explain yourself in the comments!)

On the upside, beyond the fog, there is very little to be concerned about. We aren’t going to have snow or icy roads, and there is no signal for any kind of severe weather. So while it won’t feel exactly festive out there, family gatherings should not be impacted by the weather. As a forecaster, selfishly, it also makes our job a bit easier during the holiday week when there are lots of activities with families and friends!

Friday

Today is really going to be a lovely winter day. Overnight winds have calmed down, and we’re going to have a sunny day with highs in the mid-60s. There is literally going to be nothing to complain about, although I know some readers will take that as a challenge. We are going to have one more passably chilly night, with lows in the upper 40s for most of the region. But with the onshore flow resuming on Friday night, we are going to warm up quickly on Saturday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday

After Saturday morning we’re going to see steady-eddie weather, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, a mix of sunshine and clouds, warm nights in the mid-60s, and a chance of morning fog. Rain chances will be close to zero each day. Really, I don’t expect much change from day to day, which is how it goes with potent high pressure systems like this.

Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Boxing Day

For those who don’t know, Boxing Day is December 26th, and celebrated in Canada and elsewhere in the Commonwealth nations. No one is quite sure why it’s called “Boxing” day, but it has nothing to do with fighting. And I thought I would call it out this year because there is a Canadian astronaut, Jeremy Hansen, flying on the Artemis II mission around the Moon early next year. He and his family have spent a lot of time in Houston, while he trains at NASA, and Jeremy is a swell fellow.

Anyway, I don’t expect much change in daytime temperatures during the second half of next week, but we could see a slight diminution in humidity, and this would allow for nighttime temperatures to drop by a couple of degrees. My prediction for Christmas Day remains the same as it’s been for more than a week now: Highs in the upper 70s, a decent amount of humidity, and partly sunny skies. Rain chances are very low. You can trade ugly sweaters for ugly sweating, if you like.

Is it ever going to feel like winter again?

Yes. Most of our trusted models show a significant pattern change around Sunday, Dec. 28, or Monday, Jan. 29. Since that is at the edge of predictability, we should take it with a grain of salt. But I remain hopeful that winter will eventually start to feel like winter again.

Since the forecast is pretty well locked in we’re going to take a full weekend off here. See you on Monday!

In brief: In today’s post we take a look at what parts of the country will experience a White Christmas. It won’t be Houston of course, nor any place within 1,000 miles. We also discuss our brief cooldown tonight, warming weather for the weekend, and when it might get cold again after Christmas.

A White Christmas?

Will anyone in the Lower 48 have a White Christmas this year? Only a very few areas will be cold enough and wet enough due to a large ridge of high pressure establishing itself over the United States. Here’s a map showing 3-day snowfall totals preceding Christmas morning. Unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevadas, Rockies, the upper Upper Midwest or New England area, you’re out of luck.

Thursday

Last night saw periods of dense fog, but this has begun to clear even before sunrise this morning, helped by light winds. In the fog’s wake we are going to see mostly sunny skies later today, with highs generally reaching the mid-70s. A front dropping down from the northwest may shave a couple of degrees off these highs for far northern areas, but for central and southern parts of the Houston region, the cooler air is unlikely to arrive until around sunset or after. Temperatures will drop quickly this evening, reaching the low 40s by Friday morning for all but the immediate coast. Winds will be gusty overnight from the north.

Friday

If you wonder what late December is supposed to feel like, Friday will be the day to step outside. We are going to see normal highs for this time of year, in the mid-60s, with sunny skies. Winds will be from the north, then the northeast, eventually swapping to come from the southeast overnight. This will moderate lows to fall only into the 50s for Houston.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring gusty southerly winds as the onshore flow returns in force. Skies will be mostly sunny, with highs pushing into the mid- to upper-70s. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the 60s, nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

Sunday

Another day in the mid- to upper-70s (a few inland areas might briefly touch 80 degrees). Skies should be partly cloudy, and there is the barest chance of light showers during the daytime. Probably not for most people, though.

Next week

We will fall into a familiar pattern for pretty much all of next week: Highs in the mid- to upper-70s, lows in the low- to mid-60s, partly sunny skies, and so on. Because of the thickness of a ridge of high pressure sitting over the southern United States, our weather just isn’t going to change much. We’ll see plenty of humidity for late December, and the potential for foggy mornings depending on dewpoints and winds. Daily rain chances will likely be on the order of 10 percent. This pattern will hold into Christmas Day, and likely into Friday or Saturday of next week.

After this point the majority of our modeling is showing a change about 10 days from now, ahead of the new year. There is enough agreement in the models that I’m reasonably confident we’ll see a return of winter before the end of the year. This far out we can’t be certain, but it does seem likely.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the scattered showers moving through parts of Houston today, and a warm-up in temperatures before a short-lived front on Thursday night. Beginning Saturday we will see a period of much warmer-than-usual temperatures that will persist through the Christmas holiday.

Christmas Day, about a week away

We are now eight days away from the Christmas holiday, and although that lies at the edge of what we would normally consider forecastable, we are pretty confident about the outlook for Christmas Day this year in Houston. Beginning this weekend a rather warm pattern is going to settle over Texas (and much of the southern United States) and this will persist through much of next week.

Therefore the most likely outcome for Christmas in Houston is a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances at this point, but they look to be low. The air will feel fairly humid. Bottom line: Christmas this year is going to be much warmer than normal, although at this point I think we’ll fall just below record high temperatures for late December.

Wednesday

A fairly weak storm system has traversing the region this morning. It will bring scattered showers today, mostly but not exclusively to coastal areas. Overall accumulations don’t look to impressive, but we might see a few brief bursts of moderately strong showers. I expect the rains to clear out this afternoon, or the evening by the latest. Otherwise we should have a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be light, generally from the east. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 60s, and given the fairly high dewpoints we probably can expect to see some patchy fog develop.

Thursday

Skies should become sunny as the day progresses, and this will allow high temperatures to push into the mid- to upper-70s. A cold front will approach from the northwest by Thursday evening, but I don’t think there will be much in the way of showers, if any, with its passage. Winds will shift to come from the north, and be a bit gusty overnight as drier air moves in. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 40s.

Friday

This will be our last “chilly” day for awhile. Expect highs in the low- to mid-60s with sunny skies and northerly winds. This brief incursion of winter-like weather won’t last long, however, as winds will already turn southeasterly by Friday afternoon or evening. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see partly to mostly sunny weather, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to about 80 degrees (Sunday looks especially warm). Overnight lows will be warm for December, in the mid-60s. The air will feel fairly humid, overall. On Saturday, as the southerly flow really gets going we could see some winds gusts up to 25 mph.

Next week

As noted above, there won’t be much variance in our weather next week, with highs generally in the range of the upper 70s to 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Rain chances, overall, appear to be fairly low. Will this pattern break? Yes it will, eventually. Right now our best models are indicating that our conditions could turn cooler some time around 10 days from now, in the period of December 27 or December 28. That really is at the edge of predictability, so it is not a forecast I would feel highly confident in at this time. But hopeful? Certainly.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in 10 months, and how our region narrowly missed out on an Arctic blast. Our attention then turns to the potential for some light showers on Wednesday, and another brief incursion of cooler air Friday before a warm run-up to Christmas Day.

City officially records a brief freeze

It took most of the night, but according to unofficial data this morning, the thermometer at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 32 degrees at 6:10 am CT Monday. This is the city’s first freeze since February 20. If we look at average freeze dates, since the official monitoring station was moved to Bush airport in 1969, the average date of the first freeze is December 4. So we are a little late this year, but not too late.

Not all of Houston fell below freezing this morning. Much of the city’s urban core along and south of I-10, as expected, appears to have remained just above freezing this morning. Galveston Island, as of sunrise, is a balmy 36 degrees. This is the peak of the cold for now, and probably will end up being our coldest day this December.

This front was part of fairly strong Arctic outbreak, but in the end this colder air was driven down into the United States and shoved east and southeast, rather than continuing all the way down into Texas. Accordingly we are seeing low 20s in southern Mississippi, Georgia, and the Carolinas this morning rather than Texas. That could easily have been us. This is plenty cold for me.

Monday

Although air temperatures are very chilly this morning, at least winds have fallen off. They will remain more or less light today and tonight, although they will subtly shift to come from the east. We will see mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Lows tonight should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, so we do not anticipate another freeze in the region.

Tuesday

After a chilly start this will be a mostly cloudy day, with highs in the mid-60s. Southeasterly winds will herald the arrival of a more robust onshore flow. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer, and more humid days. Wednesday should have a few more clouds, and potentially some light showers (expect accumulations of less than one-quarter inch, for most), and this could help limit highs in the mid-70s. Thursday will have a little more sunshine, I think, and this may allow temperatures to push upwards of 80 degrees. At some point on Thursday night a cool front will push through, so we probably will wake up to chillier conditions on Friday morning. It should be a dry passage.

Friday

This will be a short-lived front, but it will make things feel seasonal on Friday. I’d expect morning lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees, followed by a sunny day in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should, once again, drop to around 50 degrees. This will likely be our final visitation of winter-like weather until after the Christmas holiday.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After this the most likely scenario is about a week of warm and (for December) fairly humid weather. We are talking about highs in the 70s (possibly pushing 80 some days) and lows in the 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy with the occasional odd chance at some light rain showers. It is not completely out of the question that we see some sort of front during the run-up to Christmas, but at this point I would not put chances above 10 percent. So yeah, by far the most likely outcome for Christmas Day is highs in the upper 70s, with the potential for a foggy start. There is some evidence of a pattern change prior to the start of the new year, but that is far enough into the future such that I have low confidence in the forecast.