Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains largely the same: highs in the low 90s with a few, sporadic showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon through the weekend. Next week should see somewhat better rain chances. I also share a tip that helps me survive summer in Houston.

A beginner’s guide to surviving summer in Houston (psychologically)

There are some people who love summer in Houston. They love the heat. They love the long days with 14 hours of sunshine. They love the ability to get a tan in about 15 minutes in the middle of the day. They abhor the onset of fall because it means the end of summer. If you’re one of those people I have two things to say to you. One, bless your heart. And two, the following section is not for you. Please skip ahead.

OK, those who are still reading “survive” summer in Houston rather than “thrive,” right? I grew up in Michigan, but moved to Texas in 1991, and arrived in H-town in 1997. This will, therefore, be my 28th summer in our (fair?) city. Growing up in Michigan I had never experienced a hurricane nor the humidity that comes along with dewpoints in the upper 70s. But in the decades since then I have learned a couple of tricks that, psychologically at least, help me weather summer weather here. I want to share one of them today.

I’m writing this post now because, in some sense, our turn toward fall begins tomorrow, on the summer solstice. It is the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere (in Houston it will be 14 hours, 2 minutes, and 18 seconds, to be precise). You probably think I’m crazy. By some definitions, this is the beginning of summer! However, it also means that, starting with Saturday, every day will be that little bit shorter for the next six months. The Sun will be that little bit lower in the sky. Accordingly we are sliding toward fall, however slowly.

Of course the hottest time of the year still remains about six to eight weeks from now, due to a variety of factors including the fact that it takes longer for water to heat up than land. And fall, in reality, is at least three months away. So this trick is just psychological. But for me, just the fact that the days are getting a wee bit shorter helps me realize that fall will come even though it is hot as blazes outside. After tomorrow, it’s inevitable.

Thursday

Our weather won’t be changing much from today through the weekend. The predominant pattern remains one of modest high pressure that will limit (but not completely exclude) rain and keep temperatures in the low 90s. For today, that means high temperatures generally in the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. The sea breeze this afternoon will likely spark a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I expect these to be fairly scattered in nature. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are basically locked into the same pattern through the weekend. If you have outdoor plans you can generally expect sunny skies, but you may have to briefly dodge a few showers. Overall daily rain chances are probably in the ballpark of 20 percent. Otherwise late June is going to feel like late June.

Next week

As high pressure begins to ease off to the east, overall atmospheric conditions will begin to favor increased rain chances. I don’t think we’re looking at any type of flooding, but we should see enough light to moderate rainfall next week to help limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees for most of the week. All in all, conditions look to be fairly mild for June in Houston, which isn’t nothing.

In brief: You probably don’t need to check the weather forecast every day, at least for the next few days, as our pattern looks to remain fairly consistent. Houston will see typical temperatures for June, with a smattering of rain chances through the weekend. Next week could be a little more dynamic as high pressure shifts eastward.

High pressure, but not HIGH pressure

Houston remains largely under the influence of high pressure, expanding into the area from the southwest. But this is not a “death ridge” like we sometimes see later during the summer, when high pressure sits on top of the area and pushes temperatures up into the triple digits. As a result we are going to feel “June hot” for the foreseeable future, which is to say highs closer to 90 degrees than 95 degrees for most of the area. Rain chances will largely (but not completely) be squelched this week, but should improve to some extent next week.

Wednesday

I expect today to be a lot like Tuesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Winds today do look a little bit stronger than yesterday, so we could see some southerly gusts up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph later this afternoon. I expect we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, but I would put chances at perhaps 10 percent or a only a touch higher. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These days will be similar, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures probably slotting in somewhere between 90 and 93 degrees. I think wind gusts will be a little bit lower, but rain chances a little bit higher. On Thursday, the Juneteenth holiday, there will perhaps be a 30 percent chance of rain, mostly during the afternoon, and maybe nearly that high on Friday. For the most part these should be quickly passing showers. Nights remain warm and humid.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same: highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and plenty of humidity. I do expect we’ll continue to see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven by the sea breeze. But whether these are isolated, or reach the point where they hit say 30 percent of the area, I cannot really say with confidence.

Next week

At some point next week the ridge will shift eastward, and as this happens our atmosphere will open up to somewhat better rain chances. Whether this happens by Monday or Tuesday, or later in the week, is difficult to predict. Temperatures, regardless, should remain in the range of 90 degrees. And hey, the longer we get into summer without a sustained stretch of temperatures in the mid- or upper-90s, the better to me.

In brief: Overall our forecast is consistent for the rest of the week. We are going to see fairly normal weather for June, which is to say warm temperatures but not excessively hot. The humidity, of course, will be constant. And in a change from the last week our rain chances will go down significantly.

A stalemate in the atmosphere

Over the next several days we are going to see two competing impulses in the atmospheres overhead. To our southwest, a ridge of high pressure will be attempting to expand into Texas. At the same time, a few upper level disturbances will be attempting to slide down from the northwest. So what will happen? Mostly, I expect fairly tranquil weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and warm—but not too hot—temperatures as we go through the longest days of the year. Although we will have some shower chances, increasingly it looks like the high pressure system will keep most (but not all) at bay.

Tuesday

Today should be sunny and warm, with a high temperature in the vicinity of the low 90s. Winds, generally, will be light in the range of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. To the extent we see rainfall, the majority of it is likely to remain offshore. But we definitely could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. For the most of us, however, no. Lows tonight will trop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week looks similar. If you squint, it’s possible to see some slightly higher rain chances on Thursday, maybe 30 or 40 percent. But these three days should all bring highs in the low 90s, mostly sunny skies, and warm nights. In terms of winds, Wednesday afternoon could get a little breezy, but overall things look pretty mild.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern should persist into the weekend. Expect highs in the low 90s, a fair amount of sunshine, and perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or maybe a thunderstorm.

Next week

There is some evidence that the aforementioned high should retreat a bit next week, opening us up to a bit better rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s a week off so I don’t have much confidence. However the good news is that it does not appear as though we’re going to see a temperature spike into the mid- or upper-90s any time soon. (Note: This is not a taunt.)

In brief: After last week’s widespread showers and thunderstorms we expect more rain this week. But with the potential for flooding diminished, we are dropping our Stage 1 flood alert. Daily rain chances should also help keep highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

A week of rain, more to come

The region received a much needed dose of rainfall over the last week, with totals varying from 2 inches (generally in Katy and points west) up to nearly 10 inches (near Baytown). Most areas fell somewhere in between with a total of 4 to 6 inches. The rains were spread out enough that they did not cause too significant of flooding issues, which is not always easy to pull off in June, when rain can come down in bunches.

For the coming week we are going to see a ridge of high pressure attempt to build in from the south, but the Houston region should remain on its periphery. Generally, then, we can expect to see daily rain chances but probably not conditions as well organized as last week. So keep an umbrella handy, yes, but we are not too concerned about flash flooding. For this reason we are (finally) dropping our Stage 1 flood alert for the region.

Monday

Most locations, especially south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69 will see some rain today. And we cannot rule out some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon which may drop up to about 1 inch. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and fairly light winds from the south. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 70s for most locations.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain chances are lower during the middle of the week, due to the aforementioned high pressure, perhaps around 30 percent daily. I expect both of these days will see high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a tick or two higher, to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. There is a 100 percent chance of mosquitoes after the last week or so of rains. I’m afraid they’re going to be bad, y’all.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week is likely to see a pattern of partly sunny days and high temperatures in the low 90s. Highs will depend on whether it rains during the peak heating of the afternoon hours. And I do think it will rain. Each day will see around a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with “storm-o-clock” coming during the afternoon across the Houston region. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, I’m not anticipating a total washout, but you’ll want to have a thunderstorm contingency.

Next week

At this point it looks like this slightly unsettled pattern will continue into at least the middle of next week, with daily shower chances helping to keep temperatures at a moderate level (for Houston) in late June.