In brief: Our overall pattern is definitely changing, with rainfall likely today and tonight, and then again this weekend. Although precipitation will be plentiful, sunshine will be scarce until at least Monday. Our temperatures will go up and down, with Friday looking especially chilly even during the daytime.
Wednesday
Warmer and more humid air is spreading inland from the Gulf of Mexico this morning as a southerly flow takes hold, and this will set the stage for healthy rainfall today and into tonight. It appears that the most organized set of storms will move in from the southwest later this morning, pushing into the central Houston area around noon before lifting off to the east-northeast.
This animation shows how rain chances will change across the Houston region today. (National Weather Service)
What to expect? Mostly this should be light to moderate rainfall. However there is a slight, and I do mean slight chance of something stronger such as gusty winds and thunderstorms. It’s possible that areas north of Interstate 10 may even see a tornado warning, but that is much more unlikely than likely to happen. Anyway, most of the greater Houston region should see some rain, with general totals on the order of 0.25 to 1 inch. However there will likely be some part of town, maybe in the Sugar Land or Pearland areas, that probably hits a bullseye of 2 inches or more. Chances for lighter rain continue this evening and into the overnight hours.
Highs today will reach the lower 70s, with fairly sticky dewpoints. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s, with drier air starting to arrive after midnight.
Thursday
As a cool front pushes the warmer air back offshore, look for a cool and cloudy day Thursday, with daytime temperatures likely in the vicinity of 60 degrees. Rain chances should be low to non-existent during the daytime hours and overnight. Lows on Thursday night are chilly, dropping into the low- to mid-40s for much of Houston.
Here’s the high temperature forecast for Friday. (Weather Bell)
Friday
A colder day still, with highs likely topping out in the 50s, beneath gray skies. Lows will again drop into the 40s on Friday night with some light rain possible late.
Saturday and Sunday
If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, I would describe the forecast as challenging. Saturday looks to be another cool and gray day, with highs in 50s to lower 60s. The likelihood of rain, probably light, is about 50 percent during the daytime hours. By Saturday evening and overnight we will probably start to feel the influence of a coastal low pressure system, and this will increase rain chances on Saturday night through much of Sunday. Highs on Sunday will probably be in the low 70s, with muggy air. The bottom line is that any outdoor activities on Saturday evening through Sunday night will face the distinct possibility of rain. Most of the area should see 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday morning.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday night. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Skies look to clear out some on Monday, giving us our warmest day of the forecast period as highs push well into the 70s. After that another front appears likely, driving lows down at least into the 40s by Tuesday or Wednesday. We’ll have to see.
In brief: What goes up must come down over the next week or 10 days, as Houston rides a roller coaster of temperatures. The other big story will be rain chances, which will be high on Wednesday, and then an ongoing possibility through the weekend. Unfortunately, we still don’t have great clarity for when it might rain this weekend, but we’ll tell you when we do.
Houston’s temperature and dewpoint will be going up, and down, and up again over the next 10 days. (National Weather Service)
A fundraiser thank you
Just a quick note to very sincerely thank everyone who contributed to our annual fundraiser, which is now over. Matt and I are so appreciative of all the support, and we can’t wait to bring the city and its good people multiple cool fronts next July and August. Because that’s our job, right?
Tuesday
We’re starting today at the bottom of the roller coaster. Low temperatures this morning range from the upper-30s well north of Houston to the 50s down near the coast. Winds are generally light, from the north, and should veer to come from the east. Skies will be mostly sunny today—generally if you want to see sunshine for the next week today is the today. It’s going to be mostly cloudy from here on out for awhile. Highs will reach the mid-60s for most locations. Lows tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than Monday night, dropping into the mid-50s.
Wednesday
We’ll reach the top of the roller coaster on Wednesday, with warm and muggy air, as highs reach the low 70s. Beginning early Wednesday, we’ll see the possibility of some sprinkles or light showers. Some slightly stronger showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening as as the region feels the influence of a coastal low pressure system. A decent chance of showers remains in the forecast through the overnight hours, and most of the region is likely to see perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain, with higher accumulations possible.
Temperatures may only max out in the low 50s for most locations on Friday. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
So rain chances are dialed back somewhat on Thursday. I generally expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. Here’s where the forecast, itself, turns cloudy. The most probable outcome is the arrival of cooler and drier air in response to another front. The uncertainty is that there is still a slight chance that the effect of this front is blunted somewhat, so we may not get that cold. However, my expectation is that lows on Thursday night will generally drop into the 40s on Thursday night, with Friday being a chilly day, with highs in the 50s. All throughout we’re going to see a slight chance of rain, not any kind of storms, but light rain most likely. Lows drop into the upper 40s on Friday night. Probably.
Rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday night. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
I’m still not particularly confident in the weekend forecast beyond generally cloudy skies. My expectations are for highs in the 60s both days, with lows in the 50s. So what about rain chances? I’m going to hedge and say they’re about 50-50 each day. At this point, accumulations look to be higher on Sunday, but honestly the forecast is really difficult to call right now. So we’re going to have to fine tune things in the next day or two. I know it’s the not the answer you want, but it’s the answer you’re going to get right now. But some rain is definitely coming this week and over the weekend. I expect most of the area to pick up between 1 to 4 inches through Sunday night.
Next week
Monday is probably a warmish day, with highs in the 70s, and perhaps some sunshine. After that we’re likely to see another front, that will help cool us down and may actually bring more sunshine. But we shall see what lies on the tracks ahead.
In brief: Parts of our area are continuing to see a moderate drought after a dry second half of November. Relief is coming this week in the form of light to moderate showers, although I have some concerns that the rainfall could continue into the weekend. Also, today is the very last day of our annual fundraiser!
A reemerging drought
The second half of November saw little to no rainfall for our region, and so we’ve continued to see drought conditions develop for parts of our region. As of last Friday, a majority of the Houston area fell into “abnormally dry” conditions, whereas western parts of the region including Waller, Grimes, and Brazos counties are experiencing a moderate drought. In short, we could use some rain.
US Drought Monitor for Nov. 26.
The good news is that we’re going to get some rain this coming week. Although the jury remains out about how much, I expect most of the region to see at 1 to 2 inches. A couple of concerns that I’m watching are that the higher totals should be on the eastern half (rather than the western half where the rains are most needed). And there’s a chance of showers this coming weekend, when I know there are lots of holiday activities planned. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the weekend forecast for you.
Final thoughts on 2024 fundraiser
I want to tell you something: It is not easy for me to ask for financial support for Space City Weather. It is not something that is comfortable to me. However, as Space City Weather has grown, it has become a second full-time job, and there are a lot of expenses that go with running a small business. Additionally, the annual fundraiser means that we don’t have to seek out lowest-common denominator advertising, and we can offer readers a streamlined and clutter free experience. And when we release new versions of our app, there is no tracking or junk attached. It’s just the good stuff.
All of that to say: Thank you with a warm heart to everyone who has supported us so for this year. And if you’d still like to make a contribution or buy merchandise, you have a few more hours to do so right here.
Sunrise temperatures were cool for much, but not all of Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)
Monday
Today will be sunny and cool, with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds will be light, generally from the northeast. We’re going to have one more chilly night, with temperatures dropping into the 40s in Houston, with possibly some upper-30s in outlying areas. Skies will be partly cloudy tonight.
Tuesday
A few clouds should keep highs a bit cooler on Tuesday, perhaps topping out in the mid-60s for most locations. This is probably our last chance for consistent sunshine until next week. As the overall flow turns southeasterly, we’ll see a warmer night on Tuesday with lows in the 50s. There will also be a slight chance of some rain after midnight, although any showers will be very light.
Wednesday
This will be a warmer and somewhat more humid day, with high temperatures in the low 70s. The combination of warmer air, more moisture in the atmosphere, and a coastal low pressure system will have drive increased rain chances on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the metro area. To be clear I don’t anticipate any real flooding issues, but of the region will likely pick up between 0.5 and 1.5 inch of rain. Lows on Wednesday night may only fall to about 60 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
There is some question about the weather toward the latter half of the week. Highs on Thursday will probably reach about 70 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies and a decent chance of mostly light rain. The question is whether a front makes it all the way to the coast on Thursday or Thursday night. I think it will, but I’m not ready to make that call for sure. If the front does make it, look for highs in the low 60s on Friday, with a modest chance of rain showers.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
I think conditions look mostly OK for any holiday activities on Saturday, but I’m not ready to write any forecasts for this weekend in permanent ink. Highs on Saturday will probably be somewhere in the 60s, with mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a 1-in-3 chance of rain. Sunday may be a bit warmer, with a somewhat higher chance of rain. That is all dependent on whether a front makes it Thursday, and the timing of an upper-level system that will bring some healthier rain chances into the area on Sunday or Monday.
Speaking of Monday, it could be the day that brings a stronger front through, and finally clears us out. At some point early next week the skies will clear and we should start to see some cooler nights in the 40s. But again, the forecast remains pretty fuzzy at that point.
In brief: This post, also published on The Eyewall, reviews the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season which officially ended on Nov. 30. The season will likely be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster due to Hurricane Helene, and the relatively quick follow through in Florida from Hurricane Milton. Locally, Hurricane Beryl caused significant disruptions due to its wind gusts.
Hurricane season ends today officially, although it’s been quiet for the last 10 days or so. We could still get a surprise, as offseason storms have occurred. The last wintertime tropical system was an unnamed storm in January of 2023 off the coast of New England. Hurricane Alex occurred back in January 2016 out in the middle of the Atlantic. An unnamed storm formed near the Azores in December of 2013. The 2007 Atlantic season continued into December with Tropical Storm Olga, which racked up $45 million in damage in the Caribbean.
An analysis of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season through Hurricane Oscar in October. (NOAA NHC)
To retire, or not retire, that is the question
The 2024 Atlantic season will likely be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster due to Hurricane Helene, as well as the relatively quick follow through in Florida from Hurricane Milton. Helene will almost certainly be retired in the post-season, the first “H” storm to get that treatment since 2017’s Hurricane Harvey. I suspect Milton will also be retired, which would make it the first “M” storm since Hurricane Michael in 2019 to be retired from the list.
The “B” storms are particularly tough to retire, given that they’re usually weaker and earlier in the season. The last “B” storm to be retired was 33 years ago, Hurricane Bob (which this author remembers from being sideswiped in New Jersey as a kid). Beryl will also almost certainly be retired, less so for what happened in Houston and more for what it did to some of the Caribbean islands as a category 5 storm.
The “A” storms are a bit easier to retire, with notable intense storms like Alicia, Allen, Andrew, Anita, and Audrey on the list. Flood events like Allison and Agnes have also been retired.
Storm names are generally retired because they were especially memorable or catastrophic in terms of property damage or loss of life. It’s part of why naming works for hurricanes; if it was an especially bad storm, that name will never be heard again except in relation to that specific storm.
The total damage from this season is likely to top $100 to 150 billion in damage based on various reliable estimates. There’s a much deeper story to be told here. Between various disasters and inflation in recent years, the cost of insurance has risen dramatically. This year likely did not help those problems. Folks like Steve Bowen below, as well as Kelly Hereid and Susan Crawford’s “Moving Day” are very good resources to follow this ongoing story.
Most people tend to focus on the hazard portion of weather / climate risk. Which is important.The next step is connecting the dots so everyone understands that this is a real and growing economic / pocketbook risk.It could lead to a future financial crisis.www.redfin.com/news/florida…
Back in May, I described the upcoming hurricane season as likely to be an “arduous slog.” It ended up that way in the end, sort of, but a bizarrely silent August threw a massive wrench in forecast expectations this year. NOAA’s official hurricane outlook called for the following:
17 to 25 named storms (18 storms, just verified)
8 to 13 hurricanes (11, verified)
4 to 7 major hurricanes (5, verified)
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) 150 to 245% of the median (About 120-125% of the 30 year average, fell somewhat short)
So overall this was a mixed bag of a seasonal forecast. There were some good calls and some overdone calls. In general, NOAA has actually had a bit of an under-forecast bias, with 4 of the last 5 years verifying above their forecast range.
2023: Forecast 14/7/3 and verified with 20/7/3
2022: Forecast 18/8/5 and verified with 14/8/2
2021: Forecast 17/8/4 and verified with 21/7/4
2020: Forecast 16/8/5 and verified 30/14/7
2019: Forecast 12/6/3 and verified 18/6/3
So, they met the target this year, though the ACE forecast was overdone. Much of this season’s absurdly high forecasts were driven by excessively warm water temperatures in the entire Atlantic basin, as well as the projected development of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. The warm water temperatures held on all season.
Water temperature chart of the Atlantic main development region shows that 2024 (blue) was variably at record levels throughout the season. (University of Arizona)
Notably for 2025, we remain near record levels across the Atlantic, except in the Gulf which has mercifully fallen back to just “above normal” levels. So the water temperature forecasts were accurate.
So what about La Niña?
Though it was a little sluggish to get there, the May forecast (red lines) for La Niña essentially verified (dotted line) within the ensemble spread that was forecast in May. (ECMWF)
Well, this one is a bit more complicated, but the answer is that it partially verified, yes. The ensemble spread shown by the multiple members in red lines above did a nice job capturing the realistic spread in possible options. And through August, the La Niña seems to have struggled to develop. We seem to be getting there now, sort of, though we are not officially there yet and we may not officially get there. We’re basically ENSO neutral, leaning negative. So while the forecast technically verified within the plume, it did not get to La Niña, which probably had some impact on reducing potential storms.
What happened in August?
So what hurt August and why did this season “feel” like it really underachieved? Well, if we look at the variable of “velocity potential” as a proxy for “rising air,” where negative values (blue and purple) indicate more rising air than usual, we can see an interesting comparison to an active stretch like August 15 through September 15, 2020, which produced some hefty storms. Use the slider to see the differences.
A comparison of velocity potential between August 15 and September 15 in 2024 (less active) and 2020 (more active). (NOAA)
Both seasons featured generally significant rising air over Africa and/or the Indian Ocean, much like you would want to see in an active stretch. In 2020, however there was significant rising air over the Atlantic as well, whereas in 2024 we saw significant sinking air present in the Gulf, Caribbean, and parts of the western Atlantic. Interestingly, if you look at the rate of precipitation this year, you see a major difference in *where* in Africa the above normal rainfall occurred.
Comparison of precipitation rate between August 15 and September 15 in 2020 and 2024, showing a marked shift north in where the heaviest rain fell in Africa. (NOAA)
There was a good deal of talk this year about how the Sahara and Sahel were experiencing significant rainfall, and indeed there was a massive greening in the Sahel this year. Does this entirely explain why the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a bit less frenetic than expected? No, but it does offer a possible partial explanation and avenues for research that can help with future hurricane season outlooks.
Overall, there is a lot to unpack about this season. From a damage standpoint it met expectations. From a statistical standpoint, it met some expectations and fell short in others.
