Eric Berger

Good morning. We’re experiencing yet another muggy and warm morning across the region, but rest assured this will be the last one until early next week. This evening, we will need to watch for the possibility of storms affecting Houston as a cold front moves into our region, but at this point our concern-o-meter is not registering too high. But do be wary of the possibility of some strong thunderstorms after dark. Also, this post will also address some questions we’ve been receiving about the potential for a decent cold snap in the middle of March.

Thursday

Highs today will reach the low 80s, beneath mostly cloudy skies. Perhaps the most notable feature today will be fairly strong southerly winds, gusting to about 30 mph. We may see a few scattered, light showers during the daytime, but a capping inversion should prevent any significant rainfall during the day time. The question is, what happens when the front nears?

We’ll find out tonight. The front should reach western areas of Houston, including Katy, around 8 to 10 pm, the downtown area between 9 pm and 11 pm, and push off the coast by midnight or shortly thereafter, Most of the region falls under a “slight” chance of severe weather, which includes the possibility of strong thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. My expectations are that most of this severe weather will pass to the north of the Houston metro area, but we can’t rule out thunderstorms or other inclement weather as the front sweeps through.

If you’re out and about this evening, such as attending the rodeo, it is important to keep weather aware after the show is over. This will be a fast moving front. The worst of the storms should pass in 15 to 30 minutes. So if there are storms moving through, do not try running to your car or “making” it. Stay under cover, and the system will pass quickly. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

This will be a sunny and breezy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Gusts will be out of the north at about 20 mph. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and pleasant, with highs in the upper 70s both days, and lows Saturday night in the 50s, and Sunday night in the 60s. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Houston will be warm and partly cloudy next week through about Wednesday. But after that? Some sort of front is in the cards by around Thursday or so. The models have been flopping around a fair bit, but we do seem headed toward much cooler weather by next weekend. This is because the overall air mass over the Central United States will be turning colder at this time, and we’ll have to see how much of this colder air works its way south into the Houston region. For now, I’d bet this means lows in the 40s, but that remains to be seen. If you’re worried about a freeze, it put the chances of this happening in Houston at 10 percent or less.

Good morning. It’s rather warm outside for early March, with temperatures in the low 70s across much of the metro area with 90 percent humidity. Normal lows are about 20 degrees colder. We’ll have two more warm days before a front moves into the region late Thursday evening. This will bring a chance of storms, and then set the stage for a fine, sunny weekend.

Wednesday

The record high temperature for Houston, on March 1, is 84 degrees set back in 2017. I think we have a healthy chance of besting that as highs perk up into the mid-80s today with sticky dewpoints. Temperatures will be boosted by partly to mostly sunny skies, and a south wind at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts.

If you’re scooting your boots over to the rodeo this evening to see Brooks & Dunn, temperatures before the show will be about 80 degrees, with increasing clouds. Winds will be southerly, at about 10 mph. Post-show temperatures will be mild, in the low 70s. So really, there are no issues to worry about. Low temperatures tonight will only bottom out at 70 degrees.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Thursday, and this probably will limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Based on our latest guidance I don’t have any real concerns about weather during the daytime. We can’t entirely rule out a few scattered showers, but it should be nothing significant. However by around sunset, the cold front should be close to the far western edge of the Houston metro area, and push into the downtown area by around 9 pm to midnight, and be off the coast a couple of hours later.

So what will happen as the front passes? My sense is that, for most us, probably not too much beyond some light to moderate rain. The potential for severe weather will be greatest well to the north of our region. Areas such as Dallas, Longview, and Texarkana are at a significantly higher risk for severe weather, such as strong thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and potentially tornadoes. Closer to Houston, those risks will be tempered by a capping inversion and less favorable dynamics for storms.

The bottom line is that on Thursday evening we’ll need to watch for thunderstorms in Houston, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, as well as other severe storm threats. This is not something I’m overly concerned about, but the potential is there. Most of the region should also see some measurable rainfall, perhaps one to two tenths of an inch. So flooding is not a concern. Lows will drop into the 50s on Thursday night following the front’s passage.

Friday

Look for sunny and breezy weather, with highs in the mid- to upper 60s. Friday night will be the coldest of the week, likely dropping into the 40s for the region.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see continued mostly sunny skies. Both days now look to have high temperatures in the upper 70s. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 degrees, but Sunday night will be warmer as the southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Next week

Most of next week should be warmer, with highs in the 80s, before some sort of front arrives by Thursday or Friday. Days look to be partly cloudy, and nights fairly humid. Rain chances look low, for the most part, until the front’s arrival.

Good morning. Before we get into the forecast this morning—long story short, we can expect three days of warm conditions before a stronger front moves through on Thursday evening—I wanted to touch on a couple of issues that are playing out in the background of Houston’s weather.

Monday’s dust

Monday was a weird day in Houston. A cold front moved into the region and stalled just south of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor. Areas behind this front saw a pretty dramatic surge of drier air. By around 4 pm CT the relative humidity at Bush Intercontinental Airport, for example, had fallen to 15 percent, which is really low for late February. (Just as crazily, eight hours later, it was back to 100 percent as the front lifted north). Lots of dust rode into our region along with the front, creating air quality issues and haze. This dust was transported from West Texas, where there are drought-like conditions, and serious wind storms of late that are kicking up a lot of dust. You were breathing the desert on Monday, Houston.

For those of us who live closer to the coast, we experienced nothing of this on Monday. The front never made it. Conditions remained humid, and skies mostly sunny. We missed out entirely on the West Texas dust show. But never fear! With Thursday’s front the entire area may experience this dust again, as winds blow from the west-northwest. We’ll see.

Allergies

Tree pollen season is worsening. Monday’s tree pollen count in the city of Houston was above 2,000 for the first time this year, and any time there is wind you can see pollen flitting out of trees and causing you to sneeze. For people sensitive to pollen, this season is pretty obnoxious. Unfortunately it will probably be with us for the next three to five weeks.

Tuesday

It’s a tale of two cities this morning. Some far inland areas are still on the cool and dry side of the front. I’m looking at you, Conroe, with lows in the 50s. The front should lift further north today, entirely out of southeast Texas. Most of the region, however, is already back in the upper 60s or lower 70s with plenty of humidity. On top of all this, coastal areas are seeing a decent amount of fog this morning. Our mostly cloudy skies will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later this afternoon, and high temperatures should rise into the low- to mid-80s for much of the region.

If you’re heading out to opening night of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, temperatures this evening will be in the upper 70s, with light winds, and increasingly cloudy skies. There really are no concerns as mild weather will continue overnight, with low temperatures dropping to about 70 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

Patchy fog will be possible again Wednesday, when we should experience another warm day with highs in the low- to mid-80s. There is about a 20 percent chance of light rain. Winds will be more pronounced on Wednesday, perhaps gusting to 20 mph. Expect another warm night.

Thursday

We have lots of questions about Thursday’s weather, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours when a strong-ish cold front approaches the area. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, in addition to ingredients favorable for severe weather such as thunderstorms and possible hail or a tornado. However, there will also be a pretty healthy capping inversion in place over the area. For a time this may suppress storm activity, but the period from sunset to around midnight will see the potential for storms as this cap weakens. For now there are a lot of “maybes” in this forecast, but we should be better able to pin down the forecast for Thursday evening in tomorrow’s post. For sure conditions will be windy during the evening hours as the front approaches and passes, with gusts likely above 30 mph.

Friday

This will be a sunny, breezy, and cooler day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the mid- to upper-40s across much of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine, and sunny, with highs likely in the mid-70s on both days. Pollen concerns aside, plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should see warmish weather, with highs probably in the 80s before some sort of front arrives on Thursday or Friday. As always, we’ll have to leave the details to a future forecast.

Good morning. Houston will see a brief reprieve from humidity today and tonight as a weak front moves in, stalls, and then moves back across the region. After this we will be warm through Thursday before a stronger front brings substantially colder and drier air into the region. At this vantage point, the weekend looks absolutely sensational.

Monday

The first front will move down toward the coast by around noon. This front will probably push just offshore, or it may get hung up right along the coast. Either way a very thin line of light showers may accompany the front, and it will usher in some notably drier air—for about 12 hours. That’s because the front will start lifting back north by Monday night or early Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that, the further inland you live, the longer the dry air will last. Most of us will still reach the low 80s today, albeit with less humidity, and Houston proper should drop into the upper 50s tonight before the front lifts back north.

Tuesday

This will be a warm, mostly sunny day with light southerly winds. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s, and overnight lows dropping only to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Expect another warm day, although with more clouds building over the area. Southerly winds will also be more pronounced, gusting perhaps to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Our final 80-degree day of the week comes on Thursday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A reasonably strong front will arrive sometime later on Thursday, perhaps during the afternoon or evening hours. This is a challenging one to forecast because it looks as though there will be a fairly strong capping inversion in place—that is to say warmer air higher in the atmosphere that prevents moisture near the surface from rising. The bottom line is that if this cap holds in place over the metro area, this mostly likely will be a dry passage. But if the cap breaks, well, storms could be on the menu. Hopefully as we get closer to the front’s passage we can confidently say one way or the other. For now, I’m leaning toward a mostly storm-free passage, but with fairly strong winds Thursday night after the front moves through. Temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees late Thursday night as a result.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s on Friday. Winds will be breezy from the north, but also lessening the further into the day we get. Lows on Friday night may drop into the mid- to upper-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer ones near the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend looks extremely pleasant. We will no doubt have to tweak the details. But for now we’re probably looking at mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Humidity will be slowly on the rebound, but it should remain mostly at bay through the weekend. This will be one to spend outdoors.