Some moderate relief from the heat is finally in sight

So far, this May, every day has recorded an above-normal temperature. The monthly average of 80.8 degrees is on pace to be the second-warmest May on record for Houston, behind only 1996. Temperatures this week will be even warmer, with highs likely reaching the mid-90s, and lows in the mid-70s. However my confidence is increasing in the arrival of a weak, late season cool front on Saturday night or Sunday that should bring some moderate relief in terms of temperatures, and needed rain showers.

Tuesday

In the meantime, however, high-pressure is going to drive near-record heat across the region. Today will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows will be muggy, with temperatures only dropping into the low-70s beneath mostly cloudy skies.

Yeah, Tuesday is going to be hot. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more of the same, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a little more noticeable, blowing out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Do I really need to tell you that the nighttime will be warm and muggy?

Friday

Highs on Friday should reach the low- to mid-90s, and we’ll see even stronger southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 or possibly even 30 mph. Friday night looks especially muggy, with overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend remains a bit fuzzy, but some sort of change is indeed coming. It looks like an atmospheric disturbance will provoke a chance of showers on Saturday morning, primarily for inland areas. Then, an approaching front should bring a widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime between Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Right now accumulations don’t look too impressive, perhaps on the order of 0.25 inch for most, but that value is subject to change. The bottom line is that Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-90s, whereas highs drop into the mid-80s or so on Sunday, with continued clouds. Lows on Sunday night should drop to around 70 degrees for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Some parts of Montgomery County may see lows in the mid-60s by Sunday morning. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Monday should again be in the 80s before the cold front washes out. With the return of the onshore flow, it looks like we may some additional (and welcome) rainfall by Tuesday or so. Yes, please.

Heat continues for Houston as hurricane season draws nearer

Good morning. Just a quick note about the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: We are a little more than two weeks from the start on June 1, and on Sunday the National Hurricane Center began its regular issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks. The five-day outlooks are released four times daily at 1 am, 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm CT through November 30th. There is nothing imminent, but this serves as another reminder that hurricane season is nigh.

That’s the way we like it. (National Hurricane Center)

Monday

As for our more immediate weather, after a hot and sunny weekend, more hot and sunny weather is on the way. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon as high temperatures rise into the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be light, at about 5 mph, out of the southwest. A few, very scattered showers may be possible later this morning as a dying storm system moves southward into the region. But I don’t think these showers will make it all the way to the metro area. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s for most.

Tuesday

This will be another hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s, lows in the mid-70s, and modest southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday should be a hot day across the metro region. (National Weather Service)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The high pressure system that has pushed our highs upward will start to weaken slightly during the second half of this week. Effectively that means that our high temperatures may fall back slightly, to about 90 degrees or a few ticks higher, with sunny skies. However, a few more clouds overnight should push nighttime temperatures up a few degrees. So toward the end of the week overnight lows probably will not be dropping below the mid- or even upper-70s. Rain chances remain very low, at 10 percent or less.

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern may start to change by Friday night or Saturday, as the overall flow in the atmosphere opens us up to the potential for some rain showers, and possibly even a very weak, late season front. All of this is very speculative, however. For now, let’s go with highs of around 90 degrees for each day this weekend, and a 30 percent chance of rain. Obviously we’ll have to adjust this forecast in the coming days.

If anything, next week should be a good deal hotter than this one

Good morning. Temperatures are moderately cooler this morning, with most of the region away from the coast seeing readings in the upper 60s. We’ll see one more slightly cooler night before July-like weather returns to the area this weekend. I apologize if we sound like a broken record, but we try to report things like they are, and the reality is that this unseasonably hot pattern is unlikely to change for the next 10 days. We are likely to set several high temperature records, as well as high minimums overnight.

Temperatures just before sunrise on Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be fairly light, out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Due to the diminished onshore flow we can probably anticipate one more night with overnight lows falling into the upper 60s tonight for areas well away from the coast. It won’t feel “cool” by any means, but it will sure beat our lows next week which may be as much as 10 degrees warmer.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s and southeasterly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Overnight lows will be a touch warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

On Saturday, rain chances with an associated disturbance in the upper atmosphere have decreased to the point where I’d probably put them at 10 percent for areas west of Interstate 45, and 20 percent for areas east. This means that, for the most part, Saturday should be sunny and hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Expect winds at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. Sunday will be the same, except the chance of rain will be near zero percent.

The outlook for next week is very, very hot. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Enjoy conditions this week, because next week high pressure is likely to tighten its grip even further on our region. We are talking highs in the mid- to upper-90s with overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s for most of the region. Rain chances look to be close to nil until the weekend, at least. Some relief may finally come Sunday, May 22 or early the following week, but that’s at the end of the forecast window, so my confidence in conditions then is very low.

Hot and mostly sunny weather ahead, but at least skies should be clear for Sunday’s lunar eclipse

Good morning, Houston. The overall picture remains the same for Houston, with hot and mostly sunny weather ahead. We’ll see a pair a slightly drier nights on Wednesday and Thursday, and a low-ish chance of rain on Saturday, but mostly it is just going to feel like mid-summer in Houston.

The good news is that, with this pattern, we should see mostly clear skies on Sunday evening, when there will be a lunar eclipse. From 10:29 pm CT through 11:54 pm the Earth will move between the Sun and the Moon, casting a reddish light on our satellite. Such total eclipses of the Moon are relatively rare during the evening hours, so you should definitely check it out.

Timing for the lunar eclipse in Houston on Sunday evening. (Timeanddate.com)

Wednesday

High temperatures today will reach about 90 degrees for Houston, with slightly warmer temperatures possible for inland areas. Winds will blow out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with occasional gusts to 20 mph. A slight slackening in this southerly flow tonight will allow for tiny dip in temperatures and humidity tonight and Thursday morning, with lows falling to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

Look for hot and sunny weather, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Dewpoints “bottom out” on Thursday afternoon and evening, dropping into the low 60s. This won’t be much, but it will be something as you venture outside on Thursday evening. Lows Thursday night have a chance to drop into the upper 60s for parts of Houston.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Look for hot and mostly sunny weather, with light southerly winds, and highs likely in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Most of the weekend looks hot, sunny, and humid with highs in the mid-90s. The exception to this will come on Saturday afternoon, evening, and overnight when the atmosphere is perturbed by some passing disturbances. For now I’ll go with a 20 percent chance of rain west of Interstate 45, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Accumulations will be slight, likely only a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Next week

I’m afraid there’s likely to not be much of a change in this overall pattern through much of next week, which looks downright hot for mid-May, with highs generally in the mid-90s. The next real chance of rain after this Saturday probably comes next weekend, in the May 21 to May 23 time frame, as high pressure continues to dominate the central United States. We’ll be on the lookout for a pattern change, but I’m afraid the middle of May in Houston is going to feel more like the middle of June or even July.