Eric Berger

Summary: We’ll see mostly cloudy skies today with a chance of storms. The risk is higher north of Houston, so please take that into account if you’re chasing the total solar eclipse. Tuesday should be stormy in Houston ahead of a front on Wednesday morning. After that we’re sunny and cooler for a few days.

A bummer of an eclipse, with some storms

A total solar eclipse is the most spectacular astronomical event that most people will experience in their lifetime, and today offered a golden opportunity for people living in Texas. Unfortunately, much of the state will be socked in by clouds, from South Texas through Central Texas along the path of totality. It is possible that some areas of north Texas, particularly north of Interstate 20, will see a break in the clouds during the early afternoon hours to view totality. But even that is no certain thing.

On top of this there is the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in central and northern Texas. This is likely to occur after the eclipse. However, if you’re traveling back to Houston late this afternoon or evening it is possible you will experience some severe weather. The primary threat today is hail, but some tornadoes are also possible. Again, this severe weather is less likely to occur in Houston, but if you’re traveling north of the metro area please be weather aware this afternoon, evening, and tonight.

Monday

Houston’s air has plenty of moisture today, and with a disturbed atmosphere overhead we’re going to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Skies will be mostly cloudy, so your chances of seeing a partial eclipse here are not great.

In Houston the Moon begins to move in front of the Sun at 12:19 pm, and will reach its maximum coverage at 1:40 pm CT. At that time, in the city, 94 percent of the Sun will be covered by the Moon. The event will end at 3:01 pm. Despite the mostly overcast skies, we may seen enough breaks in the clouds to briefly view the partial eclipse. You must wear eclipse glasses when looking directly at the Sun.

Scattered showers will be most likely in central and southern Houston this morning before lifting north, with the potential for stronger storms in Montgomery County and points north this afternoon and evening. Highs, otherwise, will be near 80 degrees in Houston today with humid air and, at times, gusty southerly winds. Rain chances should be lower tonight before resuming early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

At this point it appears as though the chance of severe weather in the Houston metro area will be greater on Tuesday, perhaps with an initial round of pre-dawn storms moving in from the southwest, and another system later in the day or overnight. The potential for severe weather will be greatest for areas north of Interstate 10, but all of the area will be at risk for damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. This threat will likely extend into the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Aside from the potential for thunderstorms, this will be another warm and muggy day, with mostly cloudy skies and highs around 80 degrees. Winds will again be breezy from the southeast. Lows on Tuesday night will likely only drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Finally, on Wednesday, a decently strong front will surge into the area. I’m not super confident in the details, but this is likely to result in a final line of showers and thunderstorms early on Wednesday, followed by northwesterly winds and much drier air. Skies are likely to begin clearing during the late morning or early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Highs will again reach 80 degrees, but with lower humidity. Lows on Wednesday night should drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These look like a pair of fine, sunny days with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and ample dry air. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. It’s a damn shame we cannot delay the solar eclipse a few days.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend will be a little warmer, and a little more humid, with a fair amount of sunshine and highs in the low 80s. At this point I don’t see much of a signal for rain. Next week looks warmer and muggy, with highs in the mid-80s, or possibly even upper-80s. It’s a sign that, in the not too distant future, we’ll transition from spring into summer.

Summary: In this post I go a bit deeper into the forecast for Texas locations on Monday, during the solar eclipse. Otherwise, Houston faces a couple of more sunny days before we cloud up and warm up this weekend, with increasing rain chances on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Eclipse weather

On Monday, when we last discussed the overall pattern for cloud cover during the Solar eclipse on April 8, I described the outlook for Texas as “fairly grim.” Unfortunately, three days later, the overall forecast is pretty much the same. This applies both in Houston, where the Sun will see coverage of 94 percent by the Moon, and more broadly in Texas where the path of totality runs along much of the Interstate 35 corridor and includes major cities such as Austin and Dallas.

The overall pattern for the state of Texas is such that we’ll be under a generally southwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and this will transport a lot of moisture that will result in high clouds as well as possibly a layer of lower clouds. Here are some city-by-city outlooks:

Houston: At the time of the solar eclipse, 1:40 pm CT, skies are likely to be 80 to 100 percent covered by clouds. It may be possible to see the eclipse with solar glasses at times during the nearly three hour period that the Moon moves in front of the Sun.

Austin/Central Texas: Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 70 to 90 percent range. Austin will see a total eclipse for 1 minute, 41 seconds. The odds of this moment being observable with clear skies is therefore fairly low. But it is not non-zero.

Dallas/Northern Texas: The outlook in northern Texas is a little better. Dallas will see the eclipse for 3 minutes and 50 seconds. Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 60 to 80 percent range, with at least a thin layer of upper clouds. Because of the longer duration of the eclipse, the chance of observing at least a few moments with a clear view of totality is therefore higher.

Since there are still a little more than four days until the total eclipse there remains some variability in the forecast. However, the outlook for Monday has been fairly consistent, so our confidence is increasing in this rather drab outlook for Texas during totality. In general, the rule is likely to be that the further north one goes in the state, the better. But only slightly better.

Thursday

It’s a shame the eclipse won’t be today, as we’re going to see crystal clear skies across Houston and much of Texas. With dry air in place we’re likely to see highs of around 80 degrees today, with light southeasterly winds. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than past nights, dropping to about 60 degrees.

Friday

Another fine, sunny day. Highs will be a bit warmer, likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. The air will still be reasonably dry, but humidity will be on the rise by Friday evening. Lows drop into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see at least some sunshine, to go with highs in the low 80s. One downside will be fairly pronounced southerly winds, gusting up to about 30 mph in response to an advancing front (which is likely to stall before reaching Houston). Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Sunday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, and we’ll see some isolated or scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Highs are likely to be in the low 80s. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but most of us should just see clouds. Lows remain warm on Sunday night.

Next week

As noted above, Houston should see mostly cloudy skies on Monday, and that pattern will continue into Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This period should bring us continued warm and humid air, as well as increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of accumulations we’re not looking at anything too crazy, but most of the area could see between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain. A weak front should arrive midweek to cool us off (a bit) and bring some clearer skies.

Summary: Houston will enjoy a fine spring fling this week, with dry days and cool nights. By later on Saturday the sunshine will largely go away, likely bringing us mostly cloudy skies for the eclipse on Monday. Rain showers are likely for the first half of next week.

Wednesday

Today will be a fine, sunny day. With northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, the air is going to be plenty dry. (In fact, we’re unlikely to see dewpoints drop this far down, to about 40 degrees, many more times this spring). Highs will reach the mid- to upper-70s this afternoon before temperatures fall this evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with dry air. Winds will be lighter, and come from the west. Highs will be a bit warmer, reaching about 80 degrees. And overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

It’s perhaps worth noting that we’re now in early April. Spring still has some string to run out, but these weekly fronts we’ve been seeing are likely about to become less frequent. Savor the dry air while it’s here. Because one day fairly soon, it will be gone.

Friday

Expect more sunshine on Friday. But as winds swing to come from the south we’ll see warmer air. I expect highs to push into the mid-80s on Friday, with overnight lows dropping into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see partly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. These conditions will be somewhat marred by an approaching front, which will help generate strong southerly winds from the Gulf. Gusts on Saturday afternoon could reach about 30 mph. Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Sunday

Sunday will be cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Some light, scattered showers will be possible, as the aforementioned front stalls out near Houston, but I suspect most of the area will see sprinkles at most. The air will feel fairly humid. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Monday

We’ve been tracking the eclipse weather for awhile now, and the forecast continues to look poor. We’re likely to see cloudy skies in the Houston area on Monday, with scattered light to moderate rain showers. In Houston the Moon will begin covering the Sun shortly after noon, peaking in coverage at 1:40 pm CT. So it will get fairly dark in the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach about 80 degrees.

Of course the path of totality for the eclipse runs through Texas, along much of the Interstate 35 corridor. The forecast there looks a little bit better, but only a little. Most of our major global model guidance continues to show cloudy skies for much of Texas, with perhaps the northern part of the state having the best chance for some partly cloudy skies. We’ll take a deeper look into this tomorrow morning.

Next week

Tuesday and Wednesday should see additional healthy rain chances before some kind of front finally pushes through. It looks fairly weak, but could drop overnight lows back down to around 60 degrees.

Summary: A front will move through Houston this morning, leading to some beautiful weather through Friday. The weekend turns warmer and more humid, with some showers possible on Sunday, and likely on Monday and Tuesday. That may well spoil the eclipse viewing in Houston.

Tuesday

We’re seeing a broken line of showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms, across the region this morning as a cold front moves through the area from west to east. These showers should move east of Houston by 8 or 9 am, with drier air moving in behind. As a result we’ll see clearing skies by late this morning or early afternoon at the latest. This sunshine should allow highs to reach the lower 80s this afternoon before the region cools off nicely, with lows dropping into the low 50s tonight. It will be breezy this evening as winds gust up to about 30 mph from the north-northwest.

Wednesday

This will be a fine spring day, with highs likely in the mid-70s and lots of sunshine. It will be a bit windy, with gusts of perhaps 20 mph, as more dry air moves in. Conditions settle down overnight, with clear skies and lows in the 50s.

Thursday

This will be another exceptional day, with highs around 80 degrees and lots of sunshine. Winds will be light. Lows on Thursday night will drop again into the 50s.

Friday

While the onshore flow will start to reestablish itself, this should be a mostly sunny day with highs around 80 degrees and fairly dry air. Overnight lows will, however, be a bit warmer, only dropping to around 60 degrees overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see a transition to warmer, and more humid weather. We’ll see some clouds on Saturday, and increasing southerly winds. It could be gusty at times. Highs will be around 80 degrees. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day with a chance of light showers. Highs will again be around 80 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Eclipse Monday

A dying front will stall over the region this weekend, and it will lead to increased rain chances to start next week, on Monday and Tuesday. In terms of accumulations, most of the area is likely to see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but of course details are difficult to parse this far out.

What that means for our skies on Monday is that clouds are likely at the time of the eclipse, which will peak at 1:40 pm CT over Houston with 94 percent of the Sun covered by the Moon. I can’t say for certainty that it will be cloudy during the early afternoon hours on Monday, but we’re continuing to trend that way.

What about the line of totality, where the Sun is completely obscured by the Moon? This runs from South Texas to Northeast Texas. At this time much of the state is still likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies along the path of totality, but there is some chance that areas of north Texas might see clearing skies as the aforementioned front pushes down to the coast. We’ll see. The outlook is still fairly grim, but perhaps not so grim as yesterday.